Cailey Barker: Geologist, Fund Manager, Streetfighter
Today we get to share with you a conversation with Cailey Barker who has one of the most intriguing CVs we have ever seen in the industry.
A qualified geologist who spent 15yrs as a sell side analyst and nearly a decade at Blackrock, the worlds largest mining fund manager, where he was a Portfolio Manager.
We discuss trends, deals, fund dynamics, ESG, London mining and a lot more. Enjoy.
Please read our Privacy Policy and Disclaimer here
Sign-up for the Director’s Special
Thank you to our Partners:
Mineral Mining Services – Your preferred mining contractor
enquiry@mineralms.com.au - 1300 546 117
Grounded - Infrastructure for remote mining and civil projects Australia wide
Paul Natoli - pn@groundedgroup.com.au
CrossBoundary Energy – Can-do independent power producer
tim.taylor@crossboundary.com - +61 466 184 943
Sandvik Ground Support – The only ground support you’ll ever need
https://www.dsiunderground.com/contact
CRE Insurance – Insurance Brokers for the Construction, Resources and Energy sectors
davidh@creinsurance.com.au - +61 2 9493 6100
Greenlands Equipment – Turnkey mine water management
Caleb.M@greenlandsequipment.com.au - +61 447 178 806
K-Drill – Safe, reliable, and productive surface RC drilling
drew@k-drill.com.au - +61 416 015 876
MMTS - Mining title consultants for exploration & mining companies
iva.morrell@mmts.net.au
Australian Earthworks and Haulage - Clearing for construction, drilling, dams and rehabilitation works for mining and exploration
Reece Spitalny - +61 434 479 610
We use SPARK - Market data for active ASX Traders - https://sparktrader.com
Buy Money of Mine MERCH
Join our exclusive Money Miners Facebook Group & request access to the Hooteroo chat group.
Money of Mine on YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn & Instagram
(0:00:00)Intro
(0:01:34)Growth of passive investing
(0:07:12)Standout PE groups
(0:08:10)LSE for Mining companies
(0:10:50)Geologists in money management
(0:14:41)Good and bad historical investments
(0:20:34)Orebody quality
(0:23:11)Investing in Africa
(0:28:18)Meeting management teams
(0:34:14)ESG investing
(0:45:35)Behing the M&A curtain
(0:58:59)Different types of fund structures
(1:03:00)Rise of active ETF's
(1:05:53)Due diligence and network of big money managers
(1:10:00)Cailey's biggest misses
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,040
Righto money miners tell you
what, I would compare the
2
00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:06,960
pedigree of the guests we've got
coming up to the open pit mining
3
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,640
pedigree of MMS.
That is about the like most
4
00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,440
distinct parallel I've ever
found.
5
00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:17,120
So introducing.
So before you just first stop,
6
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,600
get MMS to do your open pit
mining contract, then you're
7
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,280
allowed to listen to this.
If you're not, turn it off, go
8
00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:25,400
away.
Have a look at this for a
9
00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:30,040
frickin CV.
He's Ajo yes, but from the rural
10
00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,000
school of mines 30 years ago so
you'd assume he's learning a
11
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:38,000
shit load in that time. 3215
years on the sell side but he
12
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:40,600
God.
He did about a decade with
13
00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,320
BlackRock, who is the world's
largest money manager in the
14
00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:49,560
resources space and just large
of everything and wasn't just a
15
00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,280
shit kicker there.
Portfolio manager Mike Kaylee
16
00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,120
Barker.
Have you ever been introduced to
17
00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,240
the world like this?
No.
18
00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,120
I'm flattered, Maddie, you
missed.
19
00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,720
You missed the most terrifying
thing on his CV, and that's that
20
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,519
Kaylee's a literal Street
Fighter, a professional 1.
21
00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:06,480
I I don't think there's a form
of martial arts.
22
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,760
He's not trained in boxing.
Moy Thai, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu,
23
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:10,720
Jit Kuni.
Don't even know if I'm saying
24
00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:12,320
that right.
Anyway, I think you invented
25
00:01:12,320 --> 00:01:13,800
your own like martial arts at
some point.
26
00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,160
Mate, you better watch out mate
after I get a few beers.
27
00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,280
I don't know Maddie, I saw some
videos on YouTube.
28
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,440
Mate, I haven't even finished.
With a shadow boxing, how good
29
00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,280
is it mate?
So boys, take it away.
30
00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,680
I'm so jeez, I'm excited about
this.
31
00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,280
Thanks very much for having me.
Pleasure to be here.
32
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,080
Right.
So yeah, we're talking about
33
00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:36,880
mining.
I am.
34
00:01:37,960 --> 00:01:39,880
I'm, I'm super excited to have
you here.
35
00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:41,680
It's not often that we have the
privilege of, of talking to
36
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,920
someone that's sat in as many
different seats as you in
37
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,960
proximity to the, you know, the
industry that we love and care
38
00:01:45,960 --> 00:01:48,360
about and want to know more
about as well.
39
00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,760
And you've had some very
interesting seats, Kylie and I
40
00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,160
like, you know, think about
like, you know, like your, your
41
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,320
former employer where, where
the, you would have had a put,
42
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,560
you know, a role where you've
got like active management
43
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,000
responsibilities.
You're, you know, you're
44
00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,800
choosing mining stocks that you
think will outperform over time.
45
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,000
But BlackRock, you know, huge
part of their growth is actually
46
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,640
to do with the, with the rise of
passive investing in lots of
47
00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:13,480
ways.
So I'd love to know like what
48
00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:18,080
what your perspective on the the
growth of passive investing has
49
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,760
sort of had on markets and
specifically the mining
50
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,400
industry?
Yeah, well, if, if I put my
51
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,680
active fund managers hat on, I I
would say terrible.
52
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:31,800
That's internal competition,
right?
53
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,800
You know, I mean, everybody's
after the cheaper fee, you know,
54
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,120
cost of living crisis hadn't
helped, but we but the, the fee
55
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,960
compression across the board
started way before that.
56
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,960
And it and you know, it's, it's
bad enough in a lot of parts of
57
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,400
the world the the US is fiercely
competitive.
58
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:54,400
I mean, you can buy a cheap ETF
product for for almost nothing.
59
00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:59,280
You know, it's, it's incredible.
But I think what investors, a
60
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,800
lot of investors don't want to
worry too much.
61
00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,880
They just want to part their
money for cheap fees and get the
62
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,080
exposure to the industry.
And I've got a massive amount of
63
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,640
sympathy with that.
There's nothing wrong with that.
64
00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:12,840
I want to buy, I want to buy
mining and I don't really know
65
00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:17,520
anything about it.
And I and I don't, I don't care
66
00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,600
too much about how the money's
my money's run.
67
00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,800
Then, you know, you Chuck it in
the ETF product.
68
00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:27,040
And that's why that that part of
the world has just, you know,
69
00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,840
grown in phenomenal portions.
Active management, you know, it
70
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,960
does everything completely
differently.
71
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,440
You know, it's, it's, it's a
hands on approach.
72
00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:43,280
It's run by real people that
don't, that don't just sort of
73
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,560
push stocks around a benchmark.
So they're, they're very, very
74
00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:48,400
different beasts.
Obviously you pay more fees, but
75
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:49,840
they're very, very different
beasts.
76
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:54,120
But it it, there's, there's no
you, you can't pull your
77
00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,760
punches.
Really active management is, I
78
00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,440
would say internal decline.
There's nothing you can do about
79
00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,240
that.
It's only going to get worse and
80
00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,360
the fact that you can put your
money in a bank account for 5%
81
00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:05,760
interest rate doesn't help at
all.
82
00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,320
Does.
It like in some ways does it
83
00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,640
have an impact on the, the
financing of, of new minds in
84
00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,400
some ways as well?
I mean, you've got a a
85
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,079
disproportionate amount of
capital disappearing from the
86
00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:18,800
active space, which typically
would have potentially gone
87
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,320
towards bringing, bringing new
minds online via, you know,
88
00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,840
developers.
Yeah, that's definitely the
89
00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:27,480
case.
Obviously they, they don't
90
00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,920
invest in deals like active fund
managers do.
91
00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:35,280
That's why you've seen the sort
of rise of PE groups and metal
92
00:04:35,280 --> 00:04:40,240
traders and other sort of quasi
funding facilities and very
93
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,640
inventive structures that a lot
of people have come up with to
94
00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,120
try and bring the bring funding
back into the industry.
95
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,040
But it, but it has, it has
created a lot of pressure.
96
00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,720
It's meant developing mines
that, you know, there's not been
97
00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:56,120
the boom times of mine building
that there were and and that's,
98
00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:00,280
and that's just not just blows.
Obviously that's also all the
99
00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:04,680
regulations and everything else
that's gone into the market,
100
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,720
into the industry.
It's just, it's just the
101
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,000
barriers to entry, it's just
made it far, far more
102
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:14,000
challenging.
I'd love to tap into PE.
103
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:15,960
You mentioned there for a
moment.
104
00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,560
Hayley, what do you think of PE
more broadly?
105
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,400
I think the, the, the common
critique we've we've heard maybe
106
00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:24,120
put forward is that, you know,
you can really nail it on your,
107
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,240
your first fund, maybe your
second fund, but it's a, it's a
108
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,640
sort of cycles game and it's,
it's very hard.
109
00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,280
Do you have a sort of different
view on that?
110
00:05:33,280 --> 00:05:37,480
Well, yes and no, I mean, yeah,
I mean you've got the three, no,
111
00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,200
no, the three sort of funding
avenues, you know, in, in terms
112
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,400
of equity, I guess you know, the
the active management we've
113
00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:49,160
talked about that, the hedges,
they play the cycle, you know,
114
00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,720
they come and people in that
fierce business come and go.
115
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,280
So, so they're there when they
need to be there that it is a
116
00:05:56,280 --> 00:05:58,360
lot of money and then go away
again.
117
00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,360
And I've seen that cycle after
cycle and the PE groups have
118
00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,600
always been there.
They've they've certainly grown
119
00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,720
and they've certainly been far
more inventive in their funding
120
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,960
structures.
I think the challenge they
121
00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:15,000
always have is how to invest
counter cyclically depending in
122
00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,600
the state of the industry and
also finding the opportunities
123
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,120
that they're always swamped with
opportunities.
124
00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,440
They have thousands of projects
that come across their desks,
125
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,640
but finding the ones that a meet
the quality criteria, you know,
126
00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,120
have an arbitrage in some shape
or form.
127
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,520
And indeed, the companies
willing to listen to them, it,
128
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,200
it puts them under a lot of
pressure to find the right
129
00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,200
opportunity.
They only need one or two to,
130
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:51,680
to, you know, win, but one big
loss and it can go the other
131
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,400
way.
So the, the, the pressure is
132
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,640
quite enormous for them to do
the right thing.
133
00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,800
So they're incredibly fussy.
So I don't think they're going
134
00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,240
to, they're not this going to
make the big difference for the
135
00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,920
industry because of that,
because they have to be fussier.
136
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,960
They they can't allocate risk as
perhaps as well as the
137
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,480
traditional funding community
can.
138
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,320
Who?
Who was your class as the most
139
00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,200
successful PA groups in the
resources space historically?
140
00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:19,920
Which are the?
Which are the stand out ones?
141
00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,360
Well, I mean, you know, I've got
a lot of affinity with the likes
142
00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,960
of RCF that because they've been
around for so long that they've
143
00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,360
changed dramatically.
But there's a lot of, there's,
144
00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,520
some of the newer players, I
think have some very interesting
145
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:39,080
models, the likes of Orion, you
know, that, that can just invest
146
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,640
right across the piece.
You know, so the, the like, if
147
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,480
you're a mining company, what a
fabulous opportunity that you
148
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:50,200
can walk into one shop and you
can get debt equity, quasi
149
00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:55,560
equity, royalty, you know, and
you name it in all sorts of sort
150
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,480
of shapes or forms.
And we've seen a few people, a
151
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:00,880
few, a few companies benefit
from that.
152
00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,920
I I think that's the way to go
because their their constraints
153
00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,560
of managing public money just
isn't there so that they can be
154
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:13,720
far more creative.
What about on the, the London
155
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:19,480
specific sort of front?
We've also spoken in the past
156
00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,360
about London, you know, not to
be too blunt, but just being
157
00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,360
dead for miners.
You're from London.
158
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:29,920
Do you, do you sort of stick up
for the LSE and, you know, AIM
159
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,960
and the, the various sort of
exchanges there as still a place
160
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:34,440
to go if you're a mining
company?
161
00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,640
Or is that also a trend that you
know you just don't want to
162
00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,880
fight?
Yeah, no, I mean, you've got to
163
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,000
be at least slightly loyal to
where you come from, I guess.
164
00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,600
But it's certainly London is
certainly not the boom town it
165
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,000
used to be.
You know, I, I cut my teeth on
166
00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,320
the sell side in in the AIM boom
in the early 2000s.
167
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,400
And, and I mean, in those days
it was just nuts.
168
00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:02,680
You were getting, you know, 10
IPOs a week and an absolute
169
00:09:02,680 --> 00:09:06,800
dross that was there.
There was 26 diamond companies
170
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,120
at the peak, I think, and I
don't think one of them has
171
00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,680
survived.
So it it was just an incredible
172
00:09:13,680 --> 00:09:16,360
time.
Those days I don't think are
173
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,000
ever coming back, I don't think.
I think there's still a lot of
174
00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,480
smaller companies still stuck on
the a market.
175
00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,080
You know, it's a poor cousin for
the LSE.
176
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,400
They there's sort of few and the
success stories and those are
177
00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,760
going to be few and far between.
But where I think the real
178
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,640
London powerhouse still will
remain is if you have a sizeable
179
00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,520
company, you know, and you're a
big diversified, you can take
180
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,360
the boxes for a generalist
rather than the resource
181
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,680
investor.
You know, that's where London
182
00:09:45,680 --> 00:09:50,000
has a lot of money to swing at.
And you know, when I talk to a
183
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,640
lot of my generalist colleagues
in my former shop, they only
184
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,400
ever played in the big stocks.
You know, they, they would sort
185
00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,920
of tap me on the shoulder every
six months and say pop this up,
186
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,240
pop this up.
Should I buy Freeport or PHP?
187
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,240
What do you think about PHP?
You know that that that was as
188
00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,520
limit in the conversation.
It was very, very short.
189
00:10:09,680 --> 00:10:14,320
What's the, what's the, the, I
guess the lower bound of market
190
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,320
cap for the generalist to
actually, you know, be
191
00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:21,680
interested?
Yeah, it's a, it's probably that
192
00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,640
at least a few billion.
But so and that's probably when
193
00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:27,640
it's a few billion, it's
probably more like the EM
194
00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,280
houses.
Most of the generalists want
195
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,320
even bigger than that.
So that five to 10 billion would
196
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,040
be the absolute minimum for most
of them.
197
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,320
So they can sort of play in some
of the mid cap space a little
198
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,520
bit, but it they're really
looking more like the seniors.
199
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:46,760
Yeah.
Is that U.S. dollars?
200
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:52,440
Yeah, yeah, yes.
On the on on the actual like,
201
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,360
you know, the investment
process, Kay, you're a you're a
202
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:58,760
Geo you you have technical,
technical, you know, capability
203
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,480
and knowledge and training to,
you know, judge all bodies and
204
00:11:02,560 --> 00:11:05,520
you know the quality of a
deposit, the quality of a mine.
205
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:10,320
But you know, but when you're in
an institution that invest
206
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,760
predominantly in mega cap which
have multiple operations
207
00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,080
everywhere, like how, how
applicable is the OR how
208
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,720
relevant and how useful is the,
the, the technical like backing
209
00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,000
in, in in allocating to those
sorts of companies.
210
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,520
Yeah.
Well, I, I mean, I would say
211
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,960
that, you know, the, the, the
billions that I talked about
212
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,520
was, would have been my
generalist colleagues that when
213
00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,560
I worked, we would have invested
up and down the cap spectrum.
214
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,400
So I looked at everything from
small caps right up to to the
215
00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:41,640
big guys.
I mean, there were big, big
216
00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,560
funds.
So there was a limit to how much
217
00:11:45,560 --> 00:11:48,720
you could do on the end, you
know, on the small, small side.
218
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,480
But you know, when you're when
you're looking at the big
219
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,360
diversified, that's sort of
irrelevant.
220
00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,600
Might maybe then there might be
some particular division, a
221
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,680
commodity that you're sort of do
you do the work on and that
222
00:12:01,680 --> 00:12:03,440
might drive your investment
decision.
223
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,680
You know, so maybe you want more
copper, so you might swing to
224
00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:10,640
Rio more than BHP.
You know that that that would be
225
00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,360
the way you sort of think about
it.
226
00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:16,600
So it'd be very high level top
down type investment analysis,
227
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,000
the lower down the cap spectrum
you get, you know, so when
228
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,600
you're looking at small caps,
that's pure technical.
229
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:28,960
So just like you would, as any
good investor probably should
230
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:34,560
you build models, you look
through technical reports, go
231
00:12:34,560 --> 00:12:40,000
out and kick the tyres and do
all that sort of good hard stuff
232
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,360
to do a proper deep dive.
And that was where my
233
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,680
background, you know, came in a
lot handy.
234
00:12:44,680 --> 00:12:46,920
You know.
So to go and see what the assets
235
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:50,600
are like, make some try and
make, try and make the really
236
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,160
good 'cause you those those
things while they might be a
237
00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,920
smaller part of your portfolio
could could often be, you know,
238
00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,240
we always think about things in
active space against your
239
00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,520
benchmark and those things are
all off benchmark.
240
00:13:04,560 --> 00:13:08,240
So they're all in active space.
So they can have a big impact on
241
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,960
your performance.
And if you can get, you know, a
242
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,760
handful of those together, I
mean, I was lucky.
243
00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,360
I made, you know, probably more
successful course than
244
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:20,720
unsuccessful and that would that
would drive performance.
245
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,000
So it was a great thing to do.
Not all and I should get there.
246
00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,760
Not all, not all fund managers
do that.
247
00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,080
You know, there's plenty of ones
that don't have technical
248
00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:36,360
expertise and just sort of
momentum junkies that just move
249
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,840
stocks around the portfolio
depending whether they're up or
250
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,360
down.
But I didn't, I wasn't like
251
00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:43,280
that.
I like to do it from a
252
00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,640
fundamental basis.
Did you, did you have a good
253
00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,040
bullshit detector on you being
AG out on the site visits and
254
00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:50,800
when you're getting told the
story?
255
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,000
Actually it's part and parcel
for the for the for the job, I
256
00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,240
think.
And like I said, you didn't when
257
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,520
when you're doing a few days on
site, you know you can't always
258
00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,560
call it, right?
But my God, I saw some.
259
00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,360
Yeah, there's been plenty of
stories.
260
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,640
I've been where I walked into
sight and I've been straight on
261
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:12,160
the phone back to the office in
London and said sell guy.
262
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:19,880
It's a pile of shit.
And and and and sometimes the
263
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,720
other way around too.
You know, like those are the
264
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:26,280
real those are the ones that you
go to bed in a cold sweat, but
265
00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:29,880
the the ones that the other side
is also too true as well.
266
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,840
I've been to sites where I've
got we've just got to buy the
267
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,240
crap out of this.
I've never seen geology like
268
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:36,800
this.
This is world class.
269
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,000
It's the kind of thing we're
looking for, you know, load up,
270
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,560
load up, back the truck up.
Are there any specific examples
271
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,680
that you can despise of some of
the success stories like that
272
00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,640
where you've just like this is
going to be big?
273
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,000
Or all the cells as well if you
want to.
274
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:54,200
Share They're.
Just all of them.
275
00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,400
Yeah, there's a there's there's
been a few I can I can share
276
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:07,640
with so well, let's see Bellevue
was one, you know, that was knew
277
00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:12,240
the guys well, we did a chance
meeting in a in a BMO conference
278
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,880
in the meeting at the airport
and we tied up a a deal with
279
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,080
them within weeks.
You know that as soon as I, you
280
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,360
know, that's not a world class,
but to find grade
281
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,280
infrastructure, everything that
you sort of ticks a lot of
282
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,800
boxes.
You know, that was one that that
283
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,640
rang out to me more on the world
class side.
284
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:38,240
Great Bear resources in Canada.
You know, and this is one thing
285
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,400
with you that I learned in my
time investing is that it
286
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,240
doesn't matter if you're late so
much.
287
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,680
We're always late, particularly
to your market.
288
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,960
I mean, your market is just
incredible. 2-3 drill holes and
289
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,840
you know, there's market cap of
4th half a billion.
290
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,200
Yeah.
So we were, we were always late
291
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,360
to the Aussie market, but that
but that's fine.
292
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:07,680
You know you I was late to great
Bear got a you know, about 3040%
293
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:09,640
return.
Then Kinross stepped in and
294
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,880
bought that and then we made it
another good return.
295
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,360
So probably doubled our money on
it.
296
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,080
But that was a great example of
just looked at the geology
297
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,160
didn't have a resource could
just say it was probably 10
298
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,680
million oz, if not 20 in time.
It's going to be a world class
299
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,320
production level.
You know, those those are the
300
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:33,520
sort of great, great things
you'd love to see where else
301
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:38,160
Filo Filo mining, you know, in
the Facuna owned by the London
302
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,840
group, just you just see that
whole Vacuna district.
303
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,720
I just looked at it and I went,
guys, we just need to be here.
304
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,440
This is just going to be the
next copper, copper district in
305
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:47,880
the world.
We need to be here.
306
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:55,600
So those are great ones.
On the on the flip side, there
307
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,880
are there's ones we, we, we
walked into where I particularly
308
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,120
if they were legacy positions
that we had picked up.
309
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,520
They were quite good for their
time.
310
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:09,400
Usually historic mines.
And I know you've got plenty of
311
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:14,160
those in, in your Outback, but
those I always found historic
312
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,319
mines just very, very tricky to
try and go back into the people
313
00:17:17,319 --> 00:17:20,400
go back into the, the gold, you
know, gold or copper price or
314
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,319
something's doubled in the last
1020 years.
315
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,400
Companies go back into them and
the chance of success is, is
316
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:28,920
tough.
And it's really tough to get
317
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:33,600
this kind of scale that, that
you need to make money and, and
318
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,040
not be hindered by all the
dilution and everything else
319
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,840
that you have sort of sort of
underground.
320
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,720
So there's been plenty of times
where we struggled things like
321
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,360
metals, eggs in the old days,
nifty mind.
322
00:17:45,360 --> 00:17:47,720
God, that was that was just so
tough.
323
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:53,440
And Nevada copper, you know, and
the other same thing as well.
324
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,840
It's like really, really tough.
Just couldn't make it work.
325
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,120
Yeah.
So there's ones where where we I
326
00:17:58,120 --> 00:18:01,040
did less and less of those and
more and more of the big arm
327
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:02,960
waivers.
Tim Taylor's out the front of
328
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,640
the bloody cross boundary.
Energy officers right now
329
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,240
weren't on the street waving his
arms, attracting the attention
330
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,200
of any punter walking past that
might be interested in a hybrid
331
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:14,680
power station for their mine
site.
332
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,040
Like those wacky, WAVY,
incredible inflatable.
333
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,480
Yeah, it's like, it's like one
of them, but just with Tim
334
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,520
Taylor's head on it.
Like I've never seen an
335
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,560
individual or a company care
about saving the world so much
336
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,440
with like reducing the carbon
footprint of power stations with
337
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,800
the bloody stationary storage,
the wind turbines, the solar
338
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,680
integrated with the thermal base
load.
339
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,760
Just what a low barrier to
entry, especially considering
340
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,440
they build it, own it, operate
it.
341
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,360
It's like the that the mining
company doesn't even have to do
342
00:18:46,360 --> 00:18:48,600
anything.
You can cross that boundary
343
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,160
today, Maddie you.
Can cross that boundary, be
344
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:55,960
smart miners and get CBE and
Timmy Taylor to put a hybrid
345
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,040
power station in for.
You don't let him stay out there
346
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,160
waving his hands forever.
No, he doesn't need to work.
347
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,120
He doesn't need to.
Yeah.
348
00:19:02,120 --> 00:19:04,280
What about, like, your Northern
Star and Sand Fire?
349
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,040
They're probably the best
historic boulders in in
350
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,120
Australia or some of them.
Sand fire would have been a
351
00:19:10,120 --> 00:19:12,400
tough one because it just
obviously that was one of those
352
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,280
ones you speak of.
Once it hit those drill aisles,
353
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:20,240
it was just $0.05 to.
Yeah, yeah.
354
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:24,280
So, so, yeah, we would have been
in and out of sand fire because
355
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:25,520
of that reason, getting the
time.
356
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,640
And I think by the time when I
first looked at it, you know,
357
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,160
the gruesome was on the end of
life.
358
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,840
It was tough.
And then they did MATSA and we
359
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,640
struggled.
We struggled with that one for
360
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,400
the amount they paid.
You know, it was one always one
361
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,680
that I thought was going to come
good in time, but just at the
362
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,240
time it was kind of it was it
was it didn't look like a great
363
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,160
proposition to us.
They probably saw it entirely
364
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,920
differently given given they
went ahead did did that Northern
365
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:58,800
Star just a fabulous story.
And you know, BlackRock had been
366
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,920
long, long term shareholders
there with quite a few, not just
367
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,400
them Northern Star like the
likes of sort of Rango back in
368
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,440
the old days, you know, just
backing quality management
369
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:14,320
teams, quality assets, really
good track record, not
370
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,520
destroying value, not going out,
raising money Willy nilly.
371
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,880
And, and, and those, you know,
they they're not always perfect.
372
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,440
You know they have hiccups along
the way sometimes.
373
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,120
Sometimes you know they wobble
for a few years.
374
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,080
But usually through time, 10
year, 20 years or a cycle,
375
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,840
they're just great to be behind
and and back those kind of
376
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,960
companies.
Yeah, the, the, the theme with
377
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,280
the the big winners versus the
the losers was, you know, there
378
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,680
was a pretty big distinction in
the quality of the ore bodies
379
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,200
between like a, a great bear and
a subscale kind of, you know,
380
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:47,760
nifty.
Like the the quality of the ore
381
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,760
bodies sort of, you know, really
dictate the the long term
382
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,120
outcomes of these sorts of
equities, don't they?
383
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,280
Nifty was good, but it all got
mined.
384
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,720
It all got mined and then fell
it.
385
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,320
But yeah, the original Nifty was
friggin unbelievable.
386
00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:05,320
Yeah.
Well, and that's right.
387
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,480
And I, I, I think the other
thing, it's not just a technical
388
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:08,920
thing, right?
It's a market thing now.
389
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:13,520
I mean, you, you know, your
market in Australia is still
390
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,040
very buoyant, but but even then
that's been tough.
391
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,400
There's been plenty of disaster
stories and the, the sort of
392
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,680
because of that, because of the,
the sort of burnout of
393
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,000
investors, particularly,
particularly in Canada, you
394
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,680
know, the Canadian, your average
Canadian investors sort of moved
395
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:35,240
from hunting exploration stocks
and then to cannabis, then
396
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,920
Bitcoin.
Now it's AI.
397
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,640
They haven't really come back.
They haven't really gone back to
398
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,160
the sort of mining exploration
stories.
399
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,920
And then they, they get a, you
know, if they do want to go back
400
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,400
where there's like 100 companies
which are going to that they
401
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,640
found a project, it's a million
oz a gramme.
402
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:57,560
It's going to be 100,000 oz a
year type mine, you know, 2 tier
403
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:02,400
3 tier 3 type costs.
It's not just not that
404
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,240
interesting, it's just not that
interesting.
405
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,920
So there's I think those are the
ones I just never made much
406
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,400
money on.
So I would always try and steer,
407
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,520
stay clear of those.
Look for something different,
408
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,280
look for something exciting and
try and find some quality.
409
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,400
Hailey, I'd, I'd love to know
the, the, the sort of parts of
410
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,000
the world given your, you know,
site visits to every corner of
411
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,000
the globe, where, where are the
the pockets you think are kind
412
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,720
of underrated?
And what are the other sort of
413
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,760
parts where you just not going
to go there?
414
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,600
Yeah, I mean you, you definitely
pay up for first world
415
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,960
jurisdictions these days.
I don't have to tell you that.
416
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,200
And and there was a massive
arbitrage for quite a while.
417
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,720
There probably still is a bit of
one between Australia and
418
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,160
Canada, but I, I think there's a
sort of quality bias there as
419
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,160
well.
There's probably been less
420
00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,320
successful development stories
in Canada, but some of this sort
421
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,880
of more exciting regions.
I mean, Africa, I've got so much
422
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,200
sympathy with Africa.
Nobody, you know, Africa was
423
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,920
traditionally backed by the
Canadians.
424
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,280
It's more Australian.
I mean, I, I cut my teeth in
425
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:18,360
Tanzania back in the 90s and I
built a mine, set up a mine for
426
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:23,760
resolute, you know, now called
Golden Pride Gator as well,
427
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,440
which angler gold ball.
And at at the time, you know,
428
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,480
the, that, that was pretty much
the first Australians in Africa.
429
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:36,240
And to put it, to put it
bluntly, not a clue.
430
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:42,600
Like going from going from, you
know, the western goldfields out
431
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,040
to out to the middle of Africa
is just a total different beast.
432
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,840
Social licence and very poor
skill sets, no infrastructure,
433
00:23:52,120 --> 00:23:53,320
you know, the list goes on and
on.
434
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,360
I've, I've heard stories from
the one of the Australian
435
00:23:56,360 --> 00:23:58,840
contractors that like when
they've got their first contract
436
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,240
in Africa and I think it might
have been Tanzania and the sea
437
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,920
containers would rock up from
Australia, but there'd be 3/4
438
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,520
empty because they've just been
ransacked before they actually
439
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,000
get to site.
And they're just like, they had
440
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,520
to account for that just
happening.
441
00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:18,280
It was, yeah.
It was a unbelievable stories
442
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,400
from over there.
But those were wild times.
443
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,480
You know, those are what, and in
particular because we didn't
444
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,760
have any technology, I mean, we
didn't, we didn't have mobile
445
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,000
phones and GPSS and we were just
bombing around.
446
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,160
Like, I mean, you just couldn't
do the kind of things you, you,
447
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,120
you could do Now.
I, I got pictures of me sitting
448
00:24:35,120 --> 00:24:39,960
on a sitting, standing next to a
drill rig with no, no PPE, no
449
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,960
headphones, no under my ears are
screwed.
450
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,320
You know, it was nuts, you know,
and, and yeah, you know, the,
451
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,160
the, the companies came in and
said, oh, you know, can you, can
452
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,480
you just give us some of your
geos and we need them to lock
453
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,400
some core and I'm like, got to
find them first, then we've got
454
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,960
to train them and then they can
sit on the, you know, it's just,
455
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,440
you know, just don't have the
skills.
456
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,200
So, yeah, it was a, it was a
very, it was a very different
457
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,520
beast.
But, but you know, the geology
458
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,480
there was and it still is, It's
just fantastic.
459
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,280
And, you know, whether it's,
whether it's Tanzania or whether
460
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,720
it's across West Africa or the
Copper belt, you know, I did a
461
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,080
lot of work in the copper belt
before the GFC.
462
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,160
The, the geology is amazing.
It's what you have to stomach is
463
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,960
the politics and the social
licence, you know, and that
464
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,240
that's key.
But if you want a mind of it
465
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,480
delivered on time and on budget,
sure, that's the place to do it.
466
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,440
You know it's, it still is.
That's the that's the thing.
467
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,520
I think there's like, well,
sometimes a lack of nuance in
468
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,560
the way that, yeah, like a lot
of typical kind of capital
469
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,440
alligators think about Africa.
They just think, oh, I got to
470
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,520
put a line through it.
And they don't, they don't want
471
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,440
to do the work to understand the
nuance and the different,
472
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,360
different jurisdictions there
and the the different risks.
473
00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:02,120
And you talked about that
premium that you you have for
474
00:26:02,120 --> 00:26:04,560
Tier 1 jurisdictions.
And in some ways the, the
475
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,560
premium totally makes sense, but
in, in other ways, like the,
476
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,600
the, the unit cost to produce
in, in the likes of, you know,
477
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,880
WA is stupidly high compared to,
to Africa, your margins way
478
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,480
lower.
You've got less durability
479
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,320
throughout the cycle, which
matters the most as a mining
480
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,240
company.
Like maybe the premium should be
481
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,640
somewhere else where you have
longevity through the cycle
482
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,880
because you have lower unit
cost, you are on the cost curve.
483
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,520
Well, that's right.
And I think it comes back to
484
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,480
that point of like a company
versus a stock, right?
485
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,960
Because, you know, a company can
be doing very well, but risk
486
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,000
protection is very different.
Everyone's got their own risk
487
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,520
lens that they apply to stock.
And so Africa is, is just sadly
488
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:51,920
never going to trade on the same
multiples that it will as, as
489
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,440
Australia for that reason.
And even though they could be
490
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,920
making a lot more money and have
absolutely no geopolitical
491
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,320
concerns, you know, in in some
some countries, you're just
492
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,760
never going to get around that.
And then, yeah.
493
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,040
And then just back to your
question, I think one, one thing
494
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,040
that always excited me as well
as an investor was, was not just
495
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,960
playing that, but also trying to
look for new frontiers as well.
496
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,760
And I think that was that's
always great fun, you know, So,
497
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:27,680
you know, Japan companies
exploring in Japan now that's
498
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,760
that that's whole sphere sort of
opened up.
499
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,080
There's lots of opportunity
there.
500
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,200
It's tricky stuff high, you
know, it's it's scratchy
501
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,920
epithermals, but the potential
is very large places like
502
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:44,560
Ecuador as an early investor
into Ecuador, you know, again,
503
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,240
quite tricky politics, but the
geology is just incredible.
504
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,480
You know, porphy after porphyry
and and the Knicks cab on the
505
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,000
off the rank is probably
Colombia.
506
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,800
You know, that's hardly been
tapped at all, you know, and
507
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,000
they're still, they've still got
a political like hanging over
508
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,720
the top of it.
But, you know, those sort of
509
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,760
exciting places, you know, we're
just going to need them.
510
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,760
We're just going to need to go
to those places to get the
511
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:13,560
copper to meet all the future
demands that we know and talk
512
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,840
about, you know, in the energy
transition and so forth.
513
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:23,520
You had in your, in your time,
Kaylee, unrivalled sort of
514
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,880
ability to make management teams
and like you've sort of spoken
515
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:31,440
about from big to kind of small.
Are there, you know, specific to
516
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,200
mining?
Are there attributes that that
517
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,520
really stand out to you?
Do do you always want to back
518
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,280
people that have kind of done it
before or are there other sort
519
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,360
of quirks you you learnt along
the way that might be sort of
520
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,680
counter intuitive?
Yeah, yeah.
521
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,400
That, that's a, that's a very
good question actually.
522
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:53,760
And and a very privileged, I
don't, I don't think everyone
523
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,680
appreciates it, but it's a very
privileged position to be in
524
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:02,480
where you can meet all the CEOs
and of, of the world and it
525
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,200
opens a lot of doors.
So that that's an incredible
526
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,840
thing in itself.
And in answer to your question,
527
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,960
I mean, there's two things I
would say.
528
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,760
First of all, track records
massively important because
529
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:21,000
people that have done it before
successfully will inevitably do
530
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,720
it again in the future and they
might not on the on #2 right.
531
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,720
I've done that.
That's happened many and many a
532
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,360
time where you back the
management team, they go out and
533
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,160
try and do it again, they
completely screw up.
534
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:38,280
But if you've got a good
management team and you, you're
535
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,240
used to this with the stables of
companies that, you know,
536
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,080
operate out of Australia, you go
on to the next one.
537
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,200
And so they'll make you money on
the next one.
538
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:51,640
You know, not mining is a tricky
business and it's, it's
539
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,080
impossible to get it right every
time.
540
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,400
But if you back the right
people, they'll, they'll go to
541
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,520
the next one or the next one
until they get it right.
542
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,080
And and so if you're backing
those kind of people that don't
543
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:07,160
give up, you're, you're more
often than not going going to
544
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:11,920
win out.
That's that's one thing.
545
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,000
So back, back traditional
management teams that have
546
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,480
really good track records.
But I had a lot of sympathy with
547
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,040
new management teams come in,
you know, we are a stuffy old
548
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:26,760
industry and we don't need to be
seeing the same old, well, no
549
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:34,040
head middle aged people sort of
running, you know, white males
550
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,800
running mining companies.
It's exciting to see new people,
551
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:41,640
younger people, fresh ideas.
Technology is a massive thing.
552
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,720
So companies that can market
their company better.
553
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,880
I mean, we've got, we've got to
remember that the, IT, the
554
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:53,920
messaging for the industry is
still aeons behind, you know, we
555
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,040
it, it's got better, you know,
with critical metals and the
556
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,040
energy transition and
everything, but it's still far,
557
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,840
far behind.
And we don't, we don't do
558
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,760
ourselves any favours.
I mean, I don't know if, I mean,
559
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:11,120
you guys probably get this less,
you know, you, you live in a
560
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,400
very resource heavy country in,
in London.
561
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,120
Well, I mean, when, when I, when
I graduated from the Royal
562
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:22,360
Scholar mines, I can remember
going to a pub and an old school
563
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:27,560
mate of mine sort of running,
strolling across the middle of
564
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,600
the pub saying, what are you
doing?
565
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,080
Raping our planet, you know?
Yeah.
566
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,240
You're bloody miners, you know?
Well, you know, you have the
567
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,120
usual spiel about, well, that's
a that's a glass you're holding
568
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:40,280
there.
How do you think that got into
569
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,800
your hand, et cetera.
That hasn't changed for 30
570
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,880
years.
I've spent 30 years educating
571
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,160
people.
MMTS have been educating
572
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:52,240
Australia about mining tenements
for 21 years.
573
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,560
It's not quite 30 years, but it
will be 30 years soon, in
574
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,640
approximately 9 years like.
Don't.
575
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,440
Don't let anyone tell you you
can't do mathemati.
576
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,520
Yeah, I'm all over this.
But like they've been doing the
577
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,240
education.
They're still educating on how
578
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,000
bloody good they are at Model
mining title compliance.
579
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,400
They've been educating people on
the fact that they do it all
580
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:15,880
over Australia, not just WA, all
over Australia.
581
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,200
And the best piece of education
you'll get is about their state
582
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,040
of the art.
Look, it's getting technical,
583
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,640
but like you know the it's
quantum computing driven
584
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,880
generation 7 artificial
intelligence system to find new
585
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,600
title application opportunities
like the the land monitoring
586
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:41,520
system at MMTS is something that
you will just never see ever
587
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,160
again in the industry.
So.
588
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,880
Mate 100% Speaking of education,
like what makes a good educator?
589
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,760
Someone that's continuously
learning you know what I mean?
590
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,800
And they are continuously
learning as the compliance
591
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,080
requirements evolve over time.
They're the 1st to learn them
592
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:56,800
and hence they're the best at
compliance because they learn
593
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,520
fast, they educate, they retain,
they comply.
594
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,040
They're like they.
Wouldn't want to leave that
595
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,120
thing to chance, would you?
They're.
596
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,040
Artificially AI driven humans
like.
597
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,120
Eva, Helen Shannon.
They're just generations.
598
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,480
The whole team.
The whole team.
599
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:10,400
Oh.
Mate, get it.
600
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,400
Just go to them.
They're only the only name you
601
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,120
need to know in mining title
compliance.
602
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:14,800
Thank you very much.
They.
603
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:18,840
Actually might be AI.
On the benefits of mine and the
604
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,320
need for mining.
Now we're into this sort of
605
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,960
critical minerals phase.
The messaging has got a lot
606
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,120
better, but we're still kind of
doing it in our own echo
607
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,760
chamber, right?
We're still kind of talking to
608
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,400
each other, patting each other
on the back.
609
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,760
We need to get out.
We need to be talking to the the
610
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:39,560
Gen ZS, getting on TikTok,
getting the messages better.
611
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,920
You know, maybe we shouldn't be
in mining industry anymore.
612
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,840
Maybe we should be, you know,
critical metals industry.
613
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:48,040
We're not.
That's what we do.
614
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,240
That's what we produce.
Jeez, I was in a yeah, my, I
615
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,360
used to work in an investment
banking team that changed their
616
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,200
name from natural resources to
critical minerals and energy.
617
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,640
But I, I don't know, I kind of
embraced the, you know, the, the
618
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,800
natural resources.
Like it's how much more pure
619
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,880
could you get in your
description of what it is that
620
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,239
we actually care about and
invest in they've?
621
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,960
Had to change the names of
everything in the last 5-10
622
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,760
years.
Lollies, bloody everything.
623
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,800
Probably, probably a good segue
into ASG investing, Kaylee.
624
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:22,120
Like, you know, there there was
that massive trend that started
625
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:26,560
and like large institutions like
your black rocks and that really
626
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:31,320
led the way for that thematic.
Yeah.
627
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,360
Take take us into when that all
started and how the whole
628
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,760
landscape changed for the big
money managers.
629
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,280
Yeah.
And it was quite a big, you
630
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,679
know, it's something we, you
know, we've always done, we call
631
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,840
it CSR in the old days.
And but it was always a sort of,
632
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,960
it always felt like a bit of a
sidekick as an investor.
633
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,199
But obviously it was very
important to a lot of mining
634
00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:58,160
companies and well, most mining
companies in any case.
635
00:35:00,240 --> 00:35:02,520
So it was a bit, but it was
always a sort of bit of a side
636
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,200
gig.
It was a kind of, you know, you
637
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,800
might have a few throwaway
questions at the end of a
638
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,640
meeting about the community
relations and government and all
639
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,880
that kind of permitting and sort
of that, that sort of thing.
640
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,760
You kind of do it as part of
your due diligence.
641
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:19,200
But it was, it was quite a scene
as less important, I guess.
642
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:23,440
And then yes, you know, that
that sort of became louder and
643
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:30,560
louder and certainly we were big
proponents of it and we were
644
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,840
looked because it was a natural
part of our business.
645
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:40,520
It people within the firm look
to us and as a guide sort of
646
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,200
guiding light about how we can
use it.
647
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:46,960
And I, I had to do lots of
education pieces just just how,
648
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:51,880
you know, the trials and
tribulations of ESG within an
649
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,320
industry like ours and, and what
it might meant for sort of
650
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,520
getting it right and getting it
wrong, which is huge as an
651
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,880
investor and, and a massive
reputational risk.
652
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,120
And if you work for a big firm,
you know, reputation is
653
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,760
everything for them.
So it, they care about that
654
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,920
first and foremost.
So as that whole way, you know,
655
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,200
they were definitely on the
front charged with that.
656
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,000
And and then it just gained more
and more momentum and we had,
657
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,040
you know, obviously we had the
disaster in Brazil and, and
658
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,920
things like that just meant it
powered on more and more.
659
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:31,320
Then then you, you had voices
around the world, the, the green
660
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:38,040
voices of the world demanding,
you know, ending of coal, ending
661
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,480
of oil.
We had protesters glueing,
662
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:46,480
glueing themselves to the
outside of the building.
663
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,280
The whole like, you know, the,
the way that the industry and
664
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,800
capital allocators think about
ESG and, and the, the roles that
665
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,200
mining companies have has had a
pretty big shift, you know, even
666
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,520
particularly in the last like
2418 months, right?
667
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:06,120
I mean, for, for the longest
time, that way that companies
668
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,440
became more, you know, ESG
appealing was just simply to
669
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:13,760
divest their dirty assets.
And that does literally nothing.
670
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,960
Maybe, maybe has a more negative
impact net net because you're
671
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:20,320
divesting these assets into
private hands where they'll be
672
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,360
run in worse conditions.
But it was ultimately like the,
673
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:30,400
the the ways that the, you know,
ESG kind of checklist was, was
674
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,480
being rattled through with how
much of your portfolio is
675
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,360
exposed to future facing
commodities, blah, blah, blah,
676
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,600
which resulted in these kind of
batshit crazy, you know,
677
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,040
portfolio decisions in my
opinion.
678
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,880
How do you think about that?
Yeah, I mean, there's, there's,
679
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,320
there's sort of two parts to
that.
680
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,880
You're, you're right as the ESG
way comes in and don't get me
681
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,120
wrong, it's still a journey of
discovery, right?
682
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,040
The metrics still aren't
perfect.
683
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,760
They're still not quite like for
like the sustainability reports
684
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,880
are, are fabulous.
But for your average investor,
685
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,120
they're just not going to read
it.
686
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,720
They're not going to read it.
They want a comps table, right,
687
00:38:03,720 --> 00:38:07,520
Just like you can, you can comp,
you can comp stocks and you can
688
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,200
see what their grade is.
You can see what their
689
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,640
valuations are.
They want to see at the end of
690
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:17,520
that table some ESG metrics.
We had a huge stewardship team
691
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,040
and a lot of big houses do they
have, you know what would have
692
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,000
been called corporate governance
back in the day?
693
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,280
They have huge stewardship
teams.
694
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,760
They use external metrics, but
really they built, they use
695
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,400
their own.
It's not very it's, I wouldn't
696
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:36,240
say it's depending on the House.
Some houses are very fixed in
697
00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:40,800
their mindset and they do indeed
might follow.
698
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:45,280
Follow who?
Glass Lewis or MSCI or or
699
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,520
whoever is providing the metrics
and just be very black and
700
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,600
white.
You know, a place I worked for,
701
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,960
it was more of a discussion
between the, between that team
702
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,360
and the investment team, which
would have included me and the
703
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:00,480
company.
And it would have been a
704
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,240
discussion.
And you know, how, how are you
705
00:39:02,240 --> 00:39:04,480
going to meet these goals?
What's your plans?
706
00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:06,800
So it's, it's, it's not so black
and white.
707
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:12,320
But you know, above that you
have, you know, the, the, the
708
00:39:12,720 --> 00:39:16,120
people that run these companies
that are under enormous public
709
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:23,080
pressure and they're getting the
public protesters they need to,
710
00:39:23,240 --> 00:39:26,360
they feel they need to do
something about it and show
711
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:27,480
they're doing something about
it.
712
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,280
And that's why you do get those
kind of decisions of like, OK,
713
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,120
you've got to sell all your
thermal coal assets now.
714
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,200
And you're absolutely right.
I couldn't, I couldn't agree
715
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:37,800
more.
Like who, who's better to run a
716
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,560
thermal coal company, Glencore
or some unknown private
717
00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:47,320
Indonesian companies, you know,
who's a better custodian for
718
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,680
the, for the world on those kind
of assets?
719
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:54,040
Well, it's obviously going to be
better it, it with somebody
720
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,720
that's a publicly listed with a
company that's going to have to
721
00:39:57,720 --> 00:40:00,040
follow all kinds of rules and
regulations.
722
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,200
So I, I sympathise with that.
So sometimes it's not always the
723
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:08,560
best investment choice or
investment decision, but you
724
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,360
have to find that balance
between.
725
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:15,720
You know what is right for the
world, what you can do, and what
726
00:40:15,720 --> 00:40:18,080
you should do.
I guess you're never gonna have
727
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,920
a perfect answer.
These are the other two boys
728
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:22,720
probably know the answer to
this, but I don't.
729
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:27,800
What was the what was the view
on met coal assets right when
730
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,760
this ESG investing wave started?
Yeah, that was fine.
731
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,400
It was thermal.
And actually, and every house
732
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,920
has their own different rules,
typically some like thermal coal
733
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,680
out obviously if you own like a
Glencore, you know, it's only a
734
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,800
portion of their revenues that
are in thermal coal.
735
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,760
So to some houses Glencore would
have been acceptable.
736
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,400
Net coal was generally fine.
But then what I was finding, I
737
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:58,400
was meeting a lot of like the,
the Japanese houses, the big
738
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:03,160
conglomerates, they were under
pressure from their investors to
739
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,520
even to just sell any coal
because the, the average
740
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,120
generalist can't understand the
difference between the two.
741
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:13,880
So, you know, I, I'm, I think
the metcoal is a, you know, a
742
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,800
great part, a great commodity to
be in, but not everybody shares
743
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,480
that view.
And and so again, we've seen
744
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:24,200
sellers for that reason.
Because it wasn't there side
745
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,760
cases where metcoal was being
used as thermal coal at parts of
746
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:33,080
the market.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
747
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,520
Well, well.
And, and some, you know, some
748
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:40,240
are intricate, inextricably
linked within a company and
749
00:41:40,240 --> 00:41:43,080
within an asset.
So you can't just, you can't
750
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,560
always, it's not always a clear
cut, but the ones, I think on
751
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,720
the whole, the big, the big
deposits, the big companies have
752
00:41:49,720 --> 00:41:52,320
have the distinction, we're able
to distinguish between the two.
753
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,400
But there's been, you know,
there's been quite a few carve
754
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,480
outs because of it.
Even the likes of tech
755
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,160
resources, you know, they've,
they've separated because they,
756
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,480
they, they just couldn't get the
rating as a copper company.
757
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:09,400
And it's sort of in confused
investors because that it was a
758
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,400
general, yeah, it was sort of
like, are you a diversified?
759
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,960
You're not really a diversified,
you're sort of semi diversified,
760
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,200
but you're making lots of money
on Metco.
761
00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:19,840
In fact, you're making tonnes of
money on Metco, but you're not
762
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,160
getting a copper rating.
So this is like really
763
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,840
confusing.
So can we just let me just
764
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,320
separate you out here and make
it easy for everyone?
765
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,480
What an amazing outcome for
Glencore too, to pick up that
766
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,640
Elk Valley portfolio for like 2
times EBITDA.
767
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,680
Yes, we'll reflect on that deal
and just be like well played.
768
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,560
Do you do you kind of sit in the
like, you know, seeing the
769
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,920
evolution of ESG investing in
the way it's, you know, informed
770
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,640
returns?
Do you do you think like in the
771
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:54,000
the companies which were maybe
like lent themselves to to ESG
772
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,200
kind of companies or future
facing commodity kind of
773
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,440
companies, critical metals
companies, they had their run of
774
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,200
our performance right.
They certainly kind of
775
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:05,800
outperformed just from ATSR
perspective, kind of call it
776
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,520
call it like 2018 to to 2022 or
whatnot.
777
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:15,040
But do you think it's the, the,
the inverse would outperform on
778
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,280
a like, you know, say measure
from today over the next like
779
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,160
five years?
Would you suspect that it's the
780
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:22,880
low multiple kind of busted up
kind of coal company that has
781
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:25,520
pretty low cost kind of long
life coal mines.
782
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,520
It's trading at an undervalued
multiple today but has longevity
783
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,520
to its its reserves life that
could outperform going forward.
784
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,280
Yeah, the jury is still out,
right, You know, and I don't
785
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:41,360
think that's just, that's just
not just our industry, any, you
786
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:46,160
know, sustainable investment
versus traditional investment or
787
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:51,520
any, you know, there's plenty of
ESG funds now, you know, and the
788
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,760
rhetoric has walked, walked
back, been walked back quite a
789
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,400
bit, you know, particularly from
the sort of greenwashing
790
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,720
pressure which I think was,
yeah, was ever done.
791
00:44:00,720 --> 00:44:04,440
There were plenty of companies
there that just about green
792
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:08,160
potentials if you if you squint
and don't look too hard.
793
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,680
I don't, I think, I think
there's a lot.
794
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,520
I think, I think everybody has
to do their bit.
795
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:22,080
Everybody has to has to be shown
to be making the world a better
796
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:23,040
place.
And that's right.
797
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,280
That's absolutely right.
And we all need to be doing
798
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:29,520
that.
Whether that you get a premium
799
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,680
for having a, a business, which
is, you know, more ESG, a better
800
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,280
has better ESG credits than
another business.
801
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,720
I, I just, I'm not sure yet, but
you could argue the same about a
802
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:46,080
green metal against a, a non
green metal or, you know, A2
803
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:48,400
tier market in nickel.
You know, you, you take your
804
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,840
pick.
There's plenty of examples like
805
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:52,080
that.
We just haven't seen the
806
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,320
premiums come through yet.
Maybe it will.
807
00:44:55,680 --> 00:45:01,040
I my my just feet, you know, if
you ask, if you ask my mum, she
808
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,080
would say I want to put my money
in a in a green fund every day
809
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:05,680
of the week.
And I was like, well, that might
810
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,160
mean less returns.
Fine.
811
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,960
I don't think everybody shares
that view.
812
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:15,680
I think most people, most people
around the world, I might, you
813
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,560
know, this is just my humble
perception.
814
00:45:17,720 --> 00:45:20,160
Most people around the world
probably focus more on money
815
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,160
about making money Friday.
March.
816
00:45:24,720 --> 00:45:26,840
Right.
Yeah, Rather than the, rather
817
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,320
than sort of having a, a great,
yeah, a perfect green potential
818
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,440
that means less money.
I don't know.
819
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,880
So, so I think the the jury's
still out in that regard.
820
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:40,120
Let's get into the deals, boys,
the stuff that excites us and
821
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:44,160
like we wanna just whatever you
can say about what goes on
822
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:50,160
behind the curtains for like the
big M and a deals that you know,
823
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,360
where the the large money
managers are, you know, 510% or,
824
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,720
or whatever.
And let's start at the start
825
00:45:57,720 --> 00:46:00,800
when the like the deals get
announced and you get crossed.
826
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:06,240
When's it happen?
Sometimes it doesn't.
827
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,840
I've been I've been in plenty of
times when it when when you wake
828
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,160
up in the morning, you're like,
all right, we're doing this
829
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:15,760
today.
Are we?
830
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:22,200
Yeah.
So it's, it's a real, I mean, we
831
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:26,160
always tried to have a very good
conversation with all our
832
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,120
investments and, and even non
investments.
833
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:31,280
And like, if you're going to do
anything, we're happy to talk on
834
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,960
a no names basis.
We can do, We've got, we've got,
835
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:37,160
we've got wards, we've got legal
people, we've got capital
836
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,880
markets teams.
We can, we can do this sensibly.
837
00:46:41,720 --> 00:46:47,440
And those were always the most
seamless deals that went
838
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,400
through.
Always the one, the worst ones
839
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,520
were, were always the ones where
we just were completely
840
00:46:54,520 --> 00:47:00,000
blindsided.
And, and, and, and for what it's
841
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,920
worth, that would have been the
same on any corporate governance
842
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,680
issue as well or potential
issue.
843
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:10,560
You know, if a company came to
us and said, you know, we, this
844
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,200
is what's going on with our,
with our board, there are sort
845
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:17,160
of 10 years or this and we're
looking at pay rise for this.
846
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:19,000
There'd be a discussion.
It'd be fine.
847
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,400
The worst thing that could
happen is like you, you get the
848
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:26,520
AGM documents and, and there's
sort of egregious pay rises with
849
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,680
no context, you know, but those
are just never going to get
850
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:34,040
through.
And so, so, you know, if there's
851
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,640
if there's, if there's a
conversation and that was part
852
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,000
that's two sides, right?
So, you know, that was us
853
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,840
telling people you need to, you
know, please talk to us.
854
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:45,320
And that was companies also
being proactive and, and, and
855
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:49,160
coming to us.
So, so, so in the case of deals,
856
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,080
you know, once, once if we were
crossed or whatever, there'd be
857
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,560
a conversation.
It's, it's kind of hard as a,
858
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:02,040
even as a major shareholder,
it's kind of hard to dictate to
859
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:06,320
a company what they should and
shouldn't do without just cause.
860
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:10,800
And I think you have to always
bear in mind that investors are
861
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:15,720
generally looking at it in many
regards from their own selfish
862
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:18,200
needs as well.
You know, they're doing what's
863
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,320
best for their clients and
what's best for their clients is
864
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,200
the way that portfolio is
positioned.
865
00:48:23,720 --> 00:48:28,040
So, you know, I'm just going to
pick pluck some names out the
866
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:29,880
air.
So let's say you're looking at,
867
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:38,400
I don't know, Anglo and Rio, you
know, for example.
868
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:44,280
And if you've, if you've got
more active risk in, in Anglo
869
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:49,480
and the deal's not attractive
enough, you're going to say no,
870
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,400
because that's best for your
performance.
871
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:57,400
You're not going to do what's
necessarily best for what, what,
872
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,920
what the company is, what the
synergies are, what, what the,
873
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,680
what the companies might be
looking at.
874
00:49:02,240 --> 00:49:06,320
So you use, so you always got to
sort of bear that, bear that in
875
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:09,760
mind.
And and always the most
876
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:15,280
satisfying best outcome was when
there's a real synergy, there's
877
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:19,040
real logic to the deal.
And this is not always the case.
878
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,800
And it's it's not only does it
look like you're going to make a
879
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,240
lot of lot of money, not
necessary, not necessarily
880
00:49:27,240 --> 00:49:30,840
straight away, but perhaps in
the future, but it's also this
881
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:34,320
is the most satisfying, but it's
also really, really good for the
882
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,840
industry.
You know that to me, like as
883
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:42,440
someone who's, you know, been in
this game quite a while, that's
884
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,000
always like the best.
It's what the estate agents
885
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:48,880
would cause maximising value for
their for their house.
886
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,840
What?
Do you mean by good for the
887
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:55,400
industry?
Well, this so so this might be
888
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,440
so what's a good example?
OK, so recent one perhaps is is
889
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,560
sentiment.
Sentiment.
890
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:04,960
It's, you know, world class
asset.
891
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:08,800
It.
Just struggled for so many years
892
00:50:09,240 --> 00:50:11,200
because it's a one asset
company.
893
00:50:12,720 --> 00:50:16,120
London listing, yeah.
London listing, you know, the
894
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:17,400
list goes on.
It's just tough.
895
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:19,000
It's tough.
It's a, it's a, it's a tough
896
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:24,720
thing to do.
So you know that Angler Gold's
897
00:50:24,720 --> 00:50:28,320
taking them out that that is
going to be far better for both
898
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,080
sides.
Like it's a, it's a, a brilliant
899
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,560
base load asset in a major
company that can spread the risk
900
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:39,240
geographically.
They can spread the cash flows,
901
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,280
you know, so if it has a bad
quarter, maybe one of the assets
902
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:46,240
will pick it up and, and then
it, it, it's probably, and this
903
00:50:46,240 --> 00:50:49,400
might be wrong, who knows, time
will tell, but it's probably
904
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,880
going to be better for the
industry in developing the
905
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,240
Egyptian mining industry, which
is still incredibly far behind,
906
00:50:56,240 --> 00:50:57,400
which you shouldn't be like,
why?
907
00:50:57,440 --> 00:51:00,920
Why is there only one?
Why is there only one commercial
908
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:04,200
Western owned gold mine in the
company in the country that
909
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:05,520
doesn't?
That can't be right?
910
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:07,520
What does that?
There's plenty of gold in the
911
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:09,320
pyramid, so I.
Was about to say there might be
912
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,760
some under it too.
Chuck some drill aisles in
913
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:13,360
there.
I can guarantee it hasn't been
914
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:18,440
explored.
You've seen, you've seen quite a
915
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:23,520
change over your career in how
miners approach M&A sort of the,
916
00:51:24,240 --> 00:51:27,000
the loose times, I guess before
the financial crisis.
917
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,000
But then you had China pick up
and then you had the, the
918
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,240
doldrums where a lot of these
companies really paid the price
919
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,880
for the bad deals that they've
done.
920
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:40,720
And now we're in a sort of cagey
period where miners are very
921
00:51:40,720 --> 00:51:45,680
specific, very picky because of,
you know, how their share prices
922
00:51:45,720 --> 00:51:49,600
performed ultimately on the back
of the, the acquisitions that
923
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:52,400
they did.
Is there sort of advice I guess
924
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:57,400
you'd you'd give the miners in
in how to approach M&A or is
925
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:59,720
there a different perspective
you'd you'd put forward given
926
00:51:59,720 --> 00:52:02,000
your experience?
Yeah, Yeah.
927
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,240
I mean, it's another great
question, JD.
928
00:52:05,240 --> 00:52:10,080
And look, if you'd have asked me
10 years ago, I'd have said, you
929
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:14,720
know, bigger is not better, you
know, value over volume.
930
00:52:14,720 --> 00:52:16,960
We've heard all those catch
phrases.
931
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,520
I don't think that's the case so
much anymore.
932
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:24,320
And I've got more sympathy with
bigger is better, I think.
933
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:28,760
I think what a lot of companies
fail to appreciate is the
934
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:36,360
liquidity constraints of within
running a fund and particularly
935
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:40,240
when an industry is not loved
like the, you know, the lower
936
00:52:40,240 --> 00:52:43,560
end of the gold industry,
there's there's just no
937
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:45,400
liquidity in those stocks at
all.
938
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:47,200
It's just very, very tough to
get liquidity.
939
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:51,360
So you can't, you can't, you
know, if you want to buy 5 or
940
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:53,560
10% of a company, you can't get
out of it.
941
00:52:53,720 --> 00:52:55,560
You can't get out of it, you
can't trade it.
942
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,320
So liquidity is a massive
threshold for all investors.
943
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:03,120
And the more generalist investor
you go, the more they need
944
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:10,400
liquidity.
So in, in, in that regards, you
945
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,680
know, when, when a lot of
companies scratching their head
946
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,040
saying like, you know, I'm so
cheap, I'm so cheap.
947
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,280
What why, why is my stock so
cheap?
948
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,280
Why can't what do I need to do?
That's often the reason is it's
949
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:26,080
just you haven't got a broad
enough investor base that can
950
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,440
even look at you.
You're you're just outside their
951
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:33,160
invest in investable universe.
And the only way, sadly, the
952
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,880
only way to get into their
investable universe is be
953
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,080
better.
It is to be bigger.
954
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:43,600
So, but, but that doesn't mean
you should just, you know, put a
955
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,680
company in Australia and a
company in Canada together and
956
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:50,360
then hope for the best.
And there's been a few examples
957
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:53,680
where it's sort of worked like
the Kirkland Lake, you know,
958
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:58,760
where it kind of worked after a
few deals that that kind of got
959
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:03,720
done.
But but for the most part, if,
960
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:09,040
if there's any kind of vague
synergy, I'm sort of hesitant,
961
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,920
but slightly I, I think that's
going to be the better, the
962
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,920
better way to go.
And the same, the same for
963
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,760
scale.
It's scaling up an asset as
964
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:21,160
well, you know, because that's
one thing at the end of the day
965
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:23,880
that comes down to even if
you've just got one project, but
966
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:27,920
you're thinking, well, I can,
you know, I don't, we, we're a
967
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:29,600
small company, we don't have
much money.
968
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:34,120
So maybe we'll start with, you
know, 10,000 tonnes of copper
969
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:36,040
and, and we'll, and then we'll
ramp up for that.
970
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,560
You're just going to get no
investment interest at all.
971
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:42,000
It's just not big enough scale.
So it's those sort of things,
972
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,600
those, those sort of attitudes
are just very, very tough.
973
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:50,240
So the the long and short answer
really is, is don't be afraid to
974
00:54:50,240 --> 00:54:53,080
be brave, I think.
Especially in this like year
975
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,960
where, you know, everyone keeps
parroting that it's cheaper to
976
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:01,040
to buy than build.
And even if there maybe aren't
977
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,360
like regional synergies, there
is the synergy that comes from a
978
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:08,240
majors balance sheet being
applied to sort of, you know, a
979
00:55:08,240 --> 00:55:11,280
smaller company's kind of
growth, growth optionality that
980
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,040
can be accelerated thanks to
that balance sheet.
981
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:15,680
Yeah.
And I think we're going to see a
982
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:19,520
lot more of those.
You know, it's the same up, up,
983
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:22,120
up, up at the top, right?
You know, the, the big guys are
984
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:25,200
very hesitant as well.
We're very nervous.
985
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:28,080
I mean, obviously we've had a
few big announcements recently,
986
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:32,800
but they're on the whole they're
pretty hesitant about doing
987
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,640
tonnes and tonnes of tonnes of
small little deals that they
988
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,560
might have done in the past and
not getting any.
989
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:40,800
They're not really moving the
needle and not doing much.
990
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:43,440
But I think, you know,
ultimately we are going to see
991
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,320
more of those investments
because the junior end they
992
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:51,360
can't, there's no money for them
out there, you know, so and some
993
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:56,920
of them do have good assets.
Back to what you said before,
994
00:55:56,920 --> 00:56:00,360
just about being blindsided and
the votes and everything for
995
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,080
these deals.
Has there been any cases where
996
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:06,640
you know you've been blindsided
but and it actually affects the
997
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,720
decision on the vote or does it
come back to what you said
998
00:56:09,720 --> 00:56:11,400
before?
It's mostly about right.
999
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:14,600
What is the best thing for our
position right now?
1000
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:24,200
Yeah, that, yeah, good question.
So that that the challenge, the
1001
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:30,280
challenge is, and this is more
on, I would say actually all
1002
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:35,600
markets, all markets.
This is that when, when a
1003
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:38,720
company, you know, gives us
their deal book, their pitch
1004
00:56:38,720 --> 00:56:42,720
book to say this is this is the
parameters of the deal, they're
1005
00:56:42,720 --> 00:56:45,240
very, very limited in what they
can actually say.
1006
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:48,600
So they're in the back of their
mind, they've got this grand
1007
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,960
plan that that what they want to
do.
1008
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:55,320
And I'll give you an example.
Like when Alamos took out Island
1009
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,800
gold, for example, look at that.
They've gone through like 3 and
1010
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:04,000
they're talking about a fourth
expansion phase on that asset.
1011
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:07,440
But when they when when the deal
came through, they couldn't say
1012
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:08,800
anything.
They could just say, well, this
1013
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,800
is a small mine, you know, it's
got great geology.
1014
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,040
We see resource potential.
Look at these drill holes.
1015
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:16,520
Yeah, but how big do you think
it'd be?
1016
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:20,160
Well, I can't really say, you
know, how much do you think this
1017
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:24,080
could produce?
Well, so it makes an investment
1018
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:28,800
decision very, very tough.
You, you have and the same like
1019
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:33,320
royalty, companies often want to
raise money for a war chest and
1020
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,280
they can't, they can't tell you
because they're under
1021
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,760
confidentiality, can't tell you
what the, the money you want.
1022
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:39,480
They just, they just say, well,
just trust us.
1023
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:45,080
What we're going to give you
$100 million on, on trust.
1024
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:47,320
I don't know what they ask.
I don't know what you're going
1025
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:48,520
to buy.
Let me know what you're going to
1026
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:50,040
buy.
And, and sometimes it works.
1027
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:54,360
You know, you have, you have
brilliant custodians of capital.
1028
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:56,840
You have people like Mick
Mccullen, who's who's done that,
1029
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:59,880
you know, with this, you know,
he's had a SPAC and he's got a
1030
00:57:59,880 --> 00:58:01,880
great track record.
So, you know, maybe you give him
1031
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:04,840
money because you, you, you've
seen that, you've seen the,
1032
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:08,840
you've seen the same story over
and over again, but that's,
1033
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,160
that's not always the case.
And so it's, it's, it's really
1034
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:16,320
hard when you're making a vote
if you don't have all the
1035
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:18,280
information in front of you.
If you've got all the
1036
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:22,160
information in front of you,
it's, it's like seamless.
1037
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:24,800
And, but don't get me wrong,
Matthew, there's been plenty of
1038
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:28,280
times where we've pushed back on
a deal and gone like that.
1039
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:32,600
You know, I don't, we can't tell
you how we're going to vote.
1040
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:38,320
But let's just say this doesn't
look, this doesn't seem right or
1041
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,840
it doesn't look attractive.
I'm not sure the metrics are
1042
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:42,960
right.
You know, maybe you need to
1043
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:45,840
rethink and that there's been
plenty of instances of those.
1044
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:48,600
A polite way of saying I think
you're destroying shareholder
1045
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,160
capital.
And I'm going to vote no
1046
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:56,920
politely.
But sometimes you just stare at
1047
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:01,160
them.
Mate, I wanted to pick your
1048
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:04,200
brain a bit about like, you
know, the insurance and outs of
1049
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,360
the different types of
structures, how the big money
1050
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:12,120
managers work like you, because
you see like combination of
1051
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:16,280
mutual funds, closed end
investment trusts, closed end
1052
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,360
funds.
I guess what are some of the key
1053
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:20,680
differences and like between
those structures?
1054
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:25,880
Does it change the way the money
is invested in a lot of these
1055
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:30,680
mining companies?
Yes, I mean, every fund has
1056
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,960
their own idiosyncrasies, right?
So and, and parameters that they
1057
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:39,120
can invest and that's largely
due to just the way the fund was
1058
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:42,360
set up originally.
And you, you can sort of change
1059
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,840
funds investment parameters as
you go, but it's just, it's such
1060
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:49,080
a ball like that.
Most people don't do it.
1061
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:52,480
So you do you tend to stick even
even sometimes they're out of
1062
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:56,720
date.
So, so every, every fund is very
1063
00:59:56,720 --> 01:00:00,720
different from how they do it,
you know, and if you're running
1064
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:04,040
an open ended fund, yeah and
dealing with inflows and
1065
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,240
outflows, it is more
restrictive.
1066
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:14,000
It's it's, it's just tougher to
do things that might be, yeah, a
1067
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:17,200
little bit off pierced or take a
little bit more risk.
1068
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:19,200
You're probably you're under a
lot more scrutiny.
1069
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:22,840
If you're running a sort of
closed end fund with a specific
1070
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:26,200
mandate, you might have free
reign to do a lot more
1071
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:29,840
interesting and creative things.
And, and that's certainly that
1072
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:33,840
my experience from my old shop,
you know, we might do, there
1073
01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:37,840
might be debt, there might be
royalties, private companies,
1074
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:42,440
all that sort of thing where you
can swing the bat on a large
1075
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:46,800
wider spectrum of, of companies
and investment opportunities,
1076
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:48,480
which can can be far more
exciting.
1077
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:53,200
A lot more risk though and a lot
more pressure.
1078
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:55,640
But but at least you're not
dealing with the inflows and
1079
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:59,800
outflows that that you know can
really sort of crimp your
1080
01:00:59,800 --> 01:01:03,120
performance and your ability to
to just sort of do your day job
1081
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:05,880
and.
What what about the investment
1082
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:09,280
time horizon?
So I assume the closed end funds
1083
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:12,400
you've got a lot more.
You can look at a seven year,
1084
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:15,040
you know the money's not going
out.
1085
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:17,200
You can put a punt that might
pay off in seven years.
1086
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:20,320
Is that is that where like a
long term bet might be applied
1087
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:26,480
or the opposite?
Yeah, Yes, yes, it's A to some
1088
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:26,840
group.
Yeah.
1089
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:30,920
I mean, I would say it's, it's,
it's more like long only monthly
1090
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:35,480
versus long short money would be
the would be the distinction.
1091
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:37,800
I would draw open and close
less.
1092
01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:41,000
So yes, probably closed.
You can be a bit more longer
1093
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:43,600
term, but not necessarily.
But not everybody thinks like
1094
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:46,400
that.
The difference between a long
1095
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:51,520
only fund and a long short fund
is streaks apart, streaks apart.
1096
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:57,280
So the turnover on a long only
fund will be a 10th, if maybe
1097
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:00,440
even less than 1/10 of of a long
short fund.
1098
01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:04,520
So the long short fund is
looking daily, you know, and
1099
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:07,400
they're managing their positions
daily.
1100
01:02:08,920 --> 01:02:11,320
You know, in the old days we
used to say three year belong
1101
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,680
only we used to say three year
investment horizon.
1102
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:18,280
And I'm not sure that's the case
anymore because I mean, we like
1103
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:21,520
to think it is and certainly it,
it should be at the very least,
1104
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:24,560
you know, and I've taken bigger,
you know, if you're looking at
1105
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:27,200
an expiration story or a
development asset, you, you're
1106
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:29,680
probably definitely looking at
three years, if not longer.
1107
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:35,080
And like I said, you know, some
investments been in for 1020
1108
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:38,200
years.
But the, the trouble is with all
1109
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:42,160
the regulations and a lot of the
scrutiny, and this could be just
1110
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:45,160
internal scrutiny.
You know, you get your, your
1111
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:48,480
performance gets reviewed on a,
you know, can get reviewed
1112
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:52,360
almost on a daily basis.
And certainly, you know, CIOs
1113
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:57,560
will look at funds within the
within their managing sphere,
1114
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,600
you know, at least monthly if
not quarterly.
1115
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,080
What now I've got to give credit
to Trevor.
1116
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:05,920
You gave me a bit of education
this morning.
1117
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:09,680
So we've got royalties in place
already in the in the room here.
1118
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:13,760
But when, when the word ETF
comes up and usually everyone
1119
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:17,160
thought, oh, just some something
boring that tracks an index or,
1120
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,800
or something, but that and that,
that probably more referred to
1121
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:23,120
the passive ETFs.
But what the the new rage of the
1122
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:28,160
the active ETF products?
How how are the the frameworks
1123
01:03:28,160 --> 01:03:33,000
established for how these active
ETFs work and what's the
1124
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:38,040
flexibility for inclusion and
getting rid of stocks in that?
1125
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:41,600
Yeah.
I mean, it, it's sort of a
1126
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:45,680
threat to some, a further
threat, I guess, to active
1127
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,120
management in, in a lot of
regards, because it kind of
1128
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:53,000
falls under the ETF passive
money banner.
1129
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:58,000
And, and I, and I do think it is
probably, probably a step
1130
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,280
better, but step better in the
right direction.
1131
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:02,600
And I only mean that from the
minute, you know, particularly
1132
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:07,200
when you're investing in a
industry like ours, you, you do
1133
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,920
need a bit of active management
because, you know, let's face
1134
01:04:10,920 --> 01:04:13,800
it, there's plenty of examples
of companies with poor safety
1135
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:15,560
records.
There's plenty of companies
1136
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:17,480
weak.
I, I just wouldn't invest in,
1137
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:21,480
it's like, well, you, you know,
how many fatalities have you had
1138
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:23,000
this year?
You know, I can't, I can't put
1139
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:24,920
money into your company until
you sort that out.
1140
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:31,960
So, you know, a traditional ETF
can't do that, can't make that
1141
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:35,920
decision necessarily.
They are guided when it comes to
1142
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,160
voting.
They're guided by their internal
1143
01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:40,280
stewardship corporate governance
teams.
1144
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:42,480
And they usually won't go
against it because they don't
1145
01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:44,640
know the company.
They're like, if the stewardship
1146
01:04:44,640 --> 01:04:47,440
team says this, OK, we'll
probably follow along with it
1147
01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:49,440
because we've never never even
met the company.
1148
01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:50,960
You know, that's not how ETFs
work.
1149
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:55,200
Whereas, you know, as an active
manager, we wouldn't know all
1150
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:59,560
the companies inside and out.
So I think these active ETFs
1151
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:02,920
are, are an interesting, very
interesting product, I think.
1152
01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:05,960
And they're growing a lot of
traction because of that.
1153
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:07,680
And they'll probably find that
halfway house.
1154
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:10,720
It still feels like they're
finding their feet in a lot of
1155
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:15,440
regards in, in what they can and
cannot do.
1156
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:19,840
But I, but I, but I suspect, you
know, things like those relative
1157
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:23,920
voting rules, not not
necessarily hugging benchmarks.
1158
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:28,320
So quick log, you know, not
being like full sellers, false
1159
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:31,200
buyers, because there's some
random benchmark change.
1160
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:37,480
And particularly in in our
sector where you do get these
1161
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:40,840
kind of weird idiosyncrasies of
things that happen like, you
1162
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:46,400
know, takeovers or stop falling
in and out of the benchmark for
1163
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:50,280
random reasons, having a bit of
flexibility isn't that that's at
1164
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:53,120
least slightly active
management, I think will help.
1165
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:57,680
And what about investing for the
big, the big mobs around the
1166
01:05:57,680 --> 01:06:02,800
world that aren't really don't
have a shop in Australia, but
1167
01:06:02,920 --> 01:06:06,360
you know, invest in a lot of
Australian mining companies.
1168
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:09,880
How does the you know prior to
positioning or taking big
1169
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:13,200
positions in these minds?
I know there probably is site
1170
01:06:13,200 --> 01:06:15,680
visits as well, but they're not
as frequent as people that live
1171
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:17,960
here.
How how does it all work?
1172
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:20,480
What's the day day process?
Who's some of the big sounding
1173
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:24,320
boards in Australia when you
don't have feet on the ground?
1174
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,360
Yeah, yeah.
And I, and I guess that comes
1175
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:31,200
back to my early comment about,
you know, there's, there's
1176
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:34,120
investors and then there's
investors, right.
1177
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:36,920
And not all of them, you know,
this is the problem.
1178
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:38,880
There's a lot of active
management, so all their
1179
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:42,640
research budgets and you know,
we've had MiFID in the in, in
1180
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:47,640
Europe, which has made the whole
interaction between invest, the
1181
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:50,640
investment community and the
broking community very, very
1182
01:06:50,640 --> 01:06:56,880
stale and very rigid.
And, and, and there a lot of
1183
01:06:57,280 --> 01:07:02,200
budgets have been cut for for
doing things like site visits.
1184
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:04,440
So there's, there's plenty of
fund managers in the world that
1185
01:07:04,680 --> 01:07:07,600
don't get out.
And there's been instances I've
1186
01:07:07,600 --> 01:07:10,440
invested in companies, many,
many instances of investing
1187
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:14,200
companies where I've not been
able to do as much to religions
1188
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:15,600
as I would like.
Bless you.
1189
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:24,000
And the, the, so the we, we rely
heavily on, on, you know, people
1190
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:26,440
we know and trust.
And I did the same.
1191
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:33,600
So I would be people I know it
would be very if there was a, if
1192
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,920
it was a brand new company or,
or, or a management team I
1193
01:07:36,920 --> 01:07:39,960
hadn't heard of, an asset I
hadn't heard of, I would do a
1194
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:42,160
hell of a lot more due
diligence, let's put it that
1195
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:45,440
way.
And probably if I, you know, in
1196
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:49,400
an ideal world, you, you, you do
all that work.
1197
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:55,280
You, you'd spend a good few
weeks doing the hard yards due
1198
01:07:55,280 --> 01:07:57,760
diligence on a company.
You go and visit it before you
1199
01:07:57,760 --> 01:08:00,840
invest it.
It doesn't it really happens
1200
01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:04,920
like that, but just because the
timing of the markets and then
1201
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,960
also you would have some kind of
input.
1202
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:10,160
You know, I did this in my old
shop.
1203
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:14,120
I put an investment process in
for the team where so, so you
1204
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:16,120
would have some kind of
investment process you would
1205
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:20,319
have to go through before you,
you know, just had a, you know,
1206
01:08:20,319 --> 01:08:24,200
maverick fund manager buying,
buying a but suddenly a position
1207
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:28,319
appeared on the portfolio with
with no due diligence and no
1208
01:08:28,319 --> 01:08:31,760
investment process behind it.
You, you, you at least need some
1209
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:35,040
kind of internal committee or
even if it's just a few people
1210
01:08:35,359 --> 01:08:38,040
as a standing board to decide
like, OK, am I being an idiot
1211
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:40,760
here?
This, this, this looks great to
1212
01:08:40,760 --> 01:08:44,040
me, but but you know, you what
do you think you're a generalist
1213
01:08:44,040 --> 01:08:45,200
or what?
What do you think?
1214
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:49,080
Do am I being an idiot?
And when you say people you know
1215
01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:52,359
in Australia, a lot of that, a
lot of that is the Australian
1216
01:08:52,359 --> 01:08:55,880
based analysts, are they the
biggest ones the internationals
1217
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:59,000
lean on?
Yeah, yeah.
1218
01:08:59,000 --> 01:09:01,680
So, yeah, it could be analysts
in the broken community.
1219
01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:03,439
It could be just other
corporates, right.
1220
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:06,479
So you might know someone or you
don't know someone, you know.
1221
01:09:06,479 --> 01:09:09,560
So what do you think it might
be?
1222
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:12,680
You know, if you, if you're
friendly with a corporate and
1223
01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:15,240
they've got an asset and you're
looking at a company which has
1224
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:18,279
got an asset next door, you
might say, oh, by the way, you
1225
01:09:19,399 --> 01:09:22,680
know, what's, what's, what's
going on with that with my next
1226
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:24,560
door, so.
How's your how's your weekend
1227
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:26,840
been?
But look, this is what I want to
1228
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:28,920
know.
Yeah, yeah, you might warm them
1229
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:33,120
up a little bit.
So I mean that that again, that
1230
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:34,720
comes back to the privilege
point, right.
1231
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,319
You know, when I did site
visits, I might see a handful of
1232
01:09:37,319 --> 01:09:40,520
assets at one go.
And that that's a that's a great
1233
01:09:41,479 --> 01:09:45,240
way to find out what's going on,
what people think of other the
1234
01:09:45,439 --> 01:09:47,160
other minds.
You know, maybe there's things
1235
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:49,439
you've missed.
And sometimes I've done that
1236
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:51,120
before.
I've gone to a site visit and
1237
01:09:51,120 --> 01:09:54,040
found out like that.
Somebody said, oh, I don't, I
1238
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:55,240
don't know what they're doing
next door.
1239
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:57,120
And I'm like, shit, I owe them
an asset next door.
1240
01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:58,920
I'm here.
I should find out what's going
1241
01:09:58,920 --> 01:10:01,320
on.
Was there any any ones that
1242
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:06,240
stand out in history that you
didn't pick that went and but
1243
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:10,640
you did the DD and it didn't
really seem like a knockout but
1244
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:14,840
ended up having amazing returns?
Definitely.
1245
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:18,960
I'm sure there's plenty.
And the biggest, yeah, I mean,
1246
01:10:19,600 --> 01:10:24,800
if, if there's ever you want to
entice a fund manager to look at
1247
01:10:24,800 --> 01:10:30,280
your company, it's FOMO.
It's not an investor in the
1248
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:32,120
world that doesn't suffer from
FOMO.
1249
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:35,760
And and there's been plenty of
like expiration stuff.
1250
01:10:35,760 --> 01:10:38,560
Like I said, I've got I've got
in late few things and you're
1251
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:40,560
kicking yourself because you're
like, well, I should have.
1252
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,240
And I looked at this, I looked
at this twice, you know, and,
1253
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:50,040
and I just didn't do it.
And there's been plenty of
1254
01:10:50,040 --> 01:10:53,280
instances like that.
And also commodities, right?
1255
01:10:53,280 --> 01:10:59,320
You know, uranium is a good
example where I, I got very
1256
01:10:59,320 --> 01:11:03,000
close links to Japan.
I was watching the energy with a
1257
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:09,760
with a sharp eye.
The the energy plans there sproc
1258
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:13,080
came along.
It got a massive run in, in, in
1259
01:11:13,080 --> 01:11:15,000
uranium.
And I just thought at the time
1260
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:17,200
I've missed it.
This is just, I should have just
1261
01:11:17,200 --> 01:11:19,720
done it, you know, but it didn't
seem real to me.
1262
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:23,080
And and I guess it wasn't in a
lot of regards then then.
1263
01:11:23,480 --> 01:11:27,600
And then once Japan started
firing up their reactors again,
1264
01:11:27,840 --> 01:11:30,320
I was like, OK, this is real
now, this is fundamental.
1265
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:33,240
Let's get involved.
So I didn't get the 1st wave
1266
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:36,280
sort of uranium buying, but it
got the second.
1267
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:40,040
And so those were sort of, those
were quite keen examples.
1268
01:11:40,040 --> 01:11:43,520
And same as lithium, you know,
been in and out of lithium, got
1269
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:47,440
in very early, made some money,
then didn't get out quick
1270
01:11:47,440 --> 01:11:50,680
enough, lost a lot, lost money.
You know, those, those sort of
1271
01:11:50,680 --> 01:11:53,280
ones where you, you know, kick
yourself sideways.
1272
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:57,920
But I, I always said, somebody
told me, a wise person told me a
1273
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:01,960
long time, long, long time ago.
Like if you, if you get out, if
1274
01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:05,280
you, if you get out at 80% of
the peak, you've done incredibly
1275
01:12:05,320 --> 01:12:08,040
well.
Don't get emotional on it.
1276
01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:11,560
That's hard to see, isn't it?
Yeah, and they've got, I've got
1277
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:15,400
a finance.
I've got a bit more of a financy
1278
01:12:15,400 --> 01:12:18,920
one for you.
How do you think about the debt
1279
01:12:18,920 --> 01:12:22,280
equity split on the on the theme
of single asset miners that we
1280
01:12:22,280 --> 01:12:27,720
were talking about before?
You mean in terms of funding a
1281
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:29,680
project?
Yeah, Yeah, that's right.
1282
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:32,680
Getting the project off the
ground, yeah, in the camp of
1283
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:36,600
that's a bit too risky for one
of these or a classic sort of
1284
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:39,480
4060 does the job.
How do you think about it?
1285
01:12:40,400 --> 01:12:42,160
Yeah, that, that's a very good
question.
1286
01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:47,240
I've looked, I mean, I've looked
at some on your home turf that
1287
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:49,200
wanted to put some very racy
debt in.
1288
01:12:49,640 --> 01:12:52,120
I think there's again, there's
sort of debt and then there's
1289
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:55,840
debt, but you know, and you
know, if you're going to pay,
1290
01:12:57,480 --> 01:12:59,600
you know, net, net now debt is
quite cheap.
1291
01:12:59,880 --> 01:13:02,640
But if you're going to pay, it
wasn't that long ago, you might
1292
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:06,640
pay 16% all in on your debt
costs.
1293
01:13:07,360 --> 01:13:12,800
It's going to be tough if your
asset is slow to ramp up.
1294
01:13:13,440 --> 01:13:18,320
And so there's no, there's no
short, short answer because it
1295
01:13:18,320 --> 01:13:22,280
was very much commodity company
and project specific.
1296
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:26,720
But you know, let's face it,
like a lithium brine, if you've
1297
01:13:26,720 --> 01:13:30,560
got 16% interest rate and a, and
a pile of debt to build a
1298
01:13:30,560 --> 01:13:35,880
lithium brine mine, you know,
there's, there's going to be a
1299
01:13:35,880 --> 01:13:37,680
good chance you're kind of
becoming, it's not going to be
1300
01:13:37,680 --> 01:13:40,640
the last slug of capital because
they've just taken way, way
1301
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:42,680
longer to ramp up than people
had expected.
1302
01:13:43,160 --> 01:13:48,240
But if it's like a very high
grade copper mine, clean
1303
01:13:48,240 --> 01:13:55,400
concentrate infrastructure and
they take on, you know, and, and
1304
01:13:55,400 --> 01:14:00,280
they're getting a 6% coupon or
something, 6% interest rate on,
1305
01:14:00,320 --> 01:14:04,080
on the debt load up, you know,
load up, you know, why not?
1306
01:14:04,400 --> 01:14:07,400
Why not take as much as
possible, minimise dilution.
1307
01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:12,520
So, so if so, if the risk isn't
there, you know, take, take as
1308
01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:16,520
much debt as possible.
I, I think in these markets,
1309
01:14:17,280 --> 01:14:20,640
though, I've got a lot of
sympathy with equity and, and a
1310
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:24,080
lot of companies are very greedy
about equity and they don't want
1311
01:14:24,080 --> 01:14:26,880
the dilution.
And I've, I, I mean, I've been
1312
01:14:26,880 --> 01:14:29,840
victim of that as an investor
where you offer some more money
1313
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:34,440
and they say, well, you know, I
think we want to get out, get
1314
01:14:34,440 --> 01:14:36,200
along a little bit longer and
go.
1315
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:40,680
And it's like if, you know, if
the ducks are quacking, as they
1316
01:14:40,720 --> 01:14:43,880
say, you know, take the money
when the money's off and take
1317
01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:46,320
it.
So a lot of companies try to be
1318
01:14:46,320 --> 01:14:51,840
too cute about getting to the
and fussy about money and
1319
01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:54,360
pricing and all that.
It's all you know.
1320
01:14:54,400 --> 01:14:57,280
It's at the end of the day, if
you're going to, if you're going
1321
01:14:57,280 --> 01:15:01,560
to develop a mind successfully
and you're not going to have
1322
01:15:01,560 --> 01:15:05,040
recourse to further financing,
you're probably going to make a
1323
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:08,160
good return.
What about the impact of hedging
1324
01:15:09,040 --> 01:15:13,560
on these companies that have
taken all the debt, but then the
1325
01:15:13,560 --> 01:15:18,000
flow and effect of what they've
lost in the long run on out of
1326
01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:20,880
the money hedges?
Yeah.
1327
01:15:20,880 --> 01:15:23,680
Well, Matthew, you're talking to
a guy that grew up in the elder
1328
01:15:23,680 --> 01:15:29,120
shanty days.
I, I hate hedging with a
1329
01:15:29,120 --> 01:15:32,520
passion.
I've grown to be sympathetic
1330
01:15:32,520 --> 01:15:39,520
with it as an investor because I
can see companies that want to
1331
01:15:39,520 --> 01:15:42,760
just make absolutely sure
they're building a mind.
1332
01:15:42,800 --> 01:15:45,520
You know that.
So let's take a little bit of
1333
01:15:45,520 --> 01:15:50,200
hedge on, you know, a third of
our production three let's say
1334
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:53,280
for a year during the ramp up
phase.
1335
01:15:53,440 --> 01:15:55,960
I'm like, oh, that's fine, you
know, knock, knock yourself out.
1336
01:15:56,360 --> 01:15:59,480
It's a, it's a, it's a, it's a
thing most investors hate
1337
01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:01,440
because it comes back to buy
them.
1338
01:16:01,480 --> 01:16:06,000
And usually when markets are hot
like now like you, if you, if I
1339
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:09,240
want to invest in a gold company
now and a company says well
1340
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:12,400
actually really get 80% of the
gold price, you're like OK,
1341
01:16:13,440 --> 01:16:15,120
next.
Yeah, right.
1342
01:16:16,040 --> 01:16:17,840
Yeah, yeah.
With Ashanti, didn't they?
1343
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:21,360
They're like, did a giant equity
raise to pay down that hedge
1344
01:16:21,360 --> 01:16:24,040
book, didn't they?
Well, I destroyed them in the
1345
01:16:24,040 --> 01:16:26,760
end, you know, that's that's why
it doesn't exist anymore.
1346
01:16:26,760 --> 01:16:32,000
So Angler Gold stepped in.
But yeah, just for that reason
1347
01:16:32,000 --> 01:16:35,040
that just in those days, hedging
was the norm, you know, it was
1348
01:16:35,040 --> 01:16:37,240
the norm and people just got
carried away with it.
1349
01:16:37,480 --> 01:16:39,480
It's a tool.
I think it's just, it's it's a
1350
01:16:39,480 --> 01:16:43,160
tool, not a necessity.
But you know, if you the the
1351
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:46,400
more you hedge, the less you
hedge, the the less you push
1352
01:16:46,400 --> 01:16:47,880
out.
Sorry, the more you hedge, the
1353
01:16:47,880 --> 01:16:50,400
more you push out your average
generalist investor that wants
1354
01:16:50,720 --> 01:16:52,760
commodity exposure.
Yeah.
1355
01:16:53,240 --> 01:16:55,080
Do you think it ever will become
the norm again?
1356
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:58,240
No.
No, no, no, not after that.
1357
01:16:58,240 --> 01:16:59,960
I just, I just don't think it
doesn't make any sense.
1358
01:16:59,960 --> 01:17:04,680
And I and I and in fairness to
the, you know, the, the mining
1359
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:08,800
community, I think that's very
few people that have filled the
1360
01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:11,600
need to edge unless it's
absolutely necessary.
1361
01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:14,400
Everyone seems to be, you know,
very good about it.
1362
01:17:15,240 --> 01:17:17,760
Do you, but do you think when
the prices are as high as they
1363
01:17:17,840 --> 01:17:22,440
are now, would you see more of
it locking in above 4000?
1364
01:17:23,760 --> 01:17:24,840
You.
You always will.
1365
01:17:24,840 --> 01:17:28,160
Fuzzy, sorry.
Yeah, I think you always will.
1366
01:17:28,240 --> 01:17:29,560
Yeah.
Yeah, you can be a.
1367
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:31,880
Bit more cute about it though
with like the the collars
1368
01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:33,600
strategy which we've seen lately
which isn't.
1369
01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:36,000
Yeah, that's, that's right,
Travis.
1370
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:38,720
Yeah, the structures are much
better than they used to be.
1371
01:17:38,960 --> 01:17:42,600
And the, the, the sort of
rigmarole around the, the, you
1372
01:17:42,600 --> 01:17:46,520
know, there's, there's just
better financial now I think
1373
01:17:47,040 --> 01:17:51,400
within all aspects just from the
companies and from the, the
1374
01:17:51,400 --> 01:17:53,440
banks themselves.
The banks have to cover
1375
01:17:53,440 --> 01:17:54,760
themselves as well.
They don't want to be.
1376
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:57,600
They don't want to end up owning
a mining asset.
1377
01:17:58,360 --> 01:18:00,120
Jesus.
There's more nows, but Jesus
1378
01:18:00,120 --> 01:18:02,240
confuses the fuck out of me.
A lot of it.
1379
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:04,720
That's the worst thing about it.
It's not convenient for me.
1380
01:18:04,720 --> 01:18:08,720
Oh.
Yeah, sorry about that, but the
1381
01:18:08,720 --> 01:18:10,120
whole industry is quite
confusing.
1382
01:18:12,440 --> 01:18:13,720
Yeah, this has been awesome,
Kayleigh.
1383
01:18:13,720 --> 01:18:17,440
Right, that's free it off.
I forgot to even write where the
1384
01:18:17,440 --> 01:18:20,280
ads are gonna go 'cause I've
just been entrenched.
1385
01:18:20,960 --> 01:18:25,040
So that was awesome mate.
They and they, as I said, you
1386
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:29,120
like yourself with the access to
the corporates and stuff, but
1387
01:18:29,120 --> 01:18:31,320
doing what we do to get access
to Someone Like You.
1388
01:18:31,360 --> 01:18:34,520
It's been an absolute privilege
mate, and we can't thank you
1389
01:18:34,520 --> 01:18:36,640
enough.
Thanks ahead, Kayleigh.
1390
01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:40,200
Appreciate it.
Yeah, no thanks ever so much
1391
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:41,680
guys.
I must say, look, you guys are
1392
01:18:41,680 --> 01:18:45,000
doing a fabulous job.
You know, to and to my point
1393
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:48,760
about messaging, I'm I'm all for
this, you know, this is, this is
1394
01:18:48,760 --> 01:18:51,960
just great to get the messaging
of the sort of industry out
1395
01:18:51,960 --> 01:18:54,080
there.
Yeah.
1396
01:18:54,120 --> 01:18:59,200
I, I just think that at at the
moment the opportunity set in
1397
01:18:59,200 --> 01:19:02,960
the industry has never been so
compelling, but the path to get
1398
01:19:02,960 --> 01:19:07,800
there so, so confusing.
So thanks for your efforts as
1399
01:19:07,800 --> 01:19:09,440
well.
Appreciate it mate.
1400
01:19:09,600 --> 01:19:11,880
Legend.
Good stuff boys.
1401
01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:14,520
Good recruitment there
Ricardini, I love your work.
1402
01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:17,040
Thank you, Kaylie.
That was great insight from,
1403
01:19:17,160 --> 01:19:19,480
yeah, someone who's had some
fascinating seats in our
1404
01:19:19,480 --> 01:19:21,560
industry.
Yeah, just as I said, a little
1405
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:24,760
little look behind the hood of
what goes on with the big, big,
1406
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:28,600
big money managers chucking 100
bucks into somethings just like
1407
01:19:28,960 --> 01:19:33,920
me buying a carton of piss like
it's unbelievable. 100 bucks
1408
01:19:33,920 --> 01:19:38,000
it's a 100 million.
I love the conversations that
1409
01:19:38,000 --> 01:19:41,000
are, you know, a bit away from
the the market day to day and in
1410
01:19:41,000 --> 01:19:44,120
the near term, you know, taking
a a longer view, understanding
1411
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:47,320
how things work a bit better.
I think they're so, so valuable.
1412
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:49,440
That's that's awesome.
Kaylee made time to come on the
1413
01:19:49,440 --> 01:19:49,960
show.
Hey.
1414
01:19:50,080 --> 01:19:53,160
Yeah, well, like you know, MMS
take a longer view like
1415
01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:56,360
BlackRock with, you know,
approaching open pit mining
1416
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:58,440
contracting like the.
Even even longer.
1417
01:19:58,480 --> 01:20:01,240
Yeah, yeah, they, they.
They, they.
1418
01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:05,000
And they're not like they'll do.
Black Rock, White rock, Brown
1419
01:20:05,000 --> 01:20:09,560
rock, blasted rock, Free dig
rock, any rock any.
1420
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:13,000
Rock you've got.
Yes and our great bloody I I
1421
01:20:13,000 --> 01:20:14,560
like the way we're doing this
now.
1422
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:18,880
Grounded will put the camps on
top of any coloured rock up at
1423
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:20,360
site.
Cross boundary energy,
1424
01:20:20,360 --> 01:20:22,480
willpower, anything to blast the
rock.
1425
01:20:22,680 --> 01:20:25,840
Sandbic ground support will hold
the rock together.
1426
01:20:26,080 --> 01:20:29,400
CRE insurance.
Well guys, without saying hey
1427
01:20:29,400 --> 01:20:31,240
mate.
Make sure the rock doesn't cost
1428
01:20:31,240 --> 01:20:32,760
you money.
Risk free rock.
1429
01:20:32,880 --> 01:20:35,840
Yeah, yeah, Greenland's
equipment, they water the fine
1430
01:20:35,840 --> 01:20:37,440
bits of rock to get rid of the
dust.
1431
01:20:37,440 --> 01:20:39,840
And buddy, you drill through the
rock to find water.
1432
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:43,360
K drill.
Just fucking absolutely
1433
01:20:43,360 --> 01:20:46,120
penetrate the rock and find the
good rocks.
1434
01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:50,320
MTS show the boundaries around
all the rocks.
1435
01:20:50,360 --> 01:20:51,800
Australian earthworks and
haulage.
1436
01:20:51,800 --> 01:20:54,640
Holy snap and duck shit.
They can move some rock right?
1437
01:20:54,640 --> 01:20:58,800
Unbelievable spark charts mate.
That business just rocks.
1438
01:20:59,040 --> 01:21:02,000
It's fucking unbelievable.
Hooteru money boys.
1439
01:21:02,200 --> 01:21:06,800
Hooteru Hooteru Information
contained in this episode of
1440
01:21:06,800 --> 01:21:09,200
Money of Mine is of general
nature only and does not take
1441
01:21:09,200 --> 01:21:12,720
into account the objectives,
financial situation or needs of
1442
01:21:12,720 --> 01:21:15,400
any particular person.
Before making any investment
1443
01:21:15,400 --> 01:21:18,440
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and
1444
01:21:18,440 --> 01:21:21,600
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,
1445
01:21:21,800 --> 01:21:23,800
financial situation and needs.