Boss Energy vs The Shorters… Who wins?

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Yeah, throw it in.
Yeah, come get pissed with us at

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Brew Dog December 3rd.
Don't.

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Click RSVP then you probably
can't come, so do that.

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You probably could literally
walk in if you wanted to make

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sure you're RSVP.
What have we got today, boys?

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Go and do a bit of bloody
uranium.

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I'm going to talk about good old
Boss Energy, the second most

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shorted stock on the ASX.
Bit of bloody scuttlebutt going

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around about evolution.
Chinese.

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Yep, Genesis.
Mangari.

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Mangari, yeah.
There's a fault as well, mate.

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Fault they're.
All in there, right?

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It's all up there.
I can hear goods.

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Morning.
We're going to try quickly.

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Quickly I land there.
Yeah, it got quickly shut down

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by the company, but that hasn't
stopped us from running Fools

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Steam ahead.
God, as soon as I've seen

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Chinese buying heaps of stuff in
Australia, I'm like, can that

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happen?
But anyway, we'll figure that

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out.
We will mate.

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What else we got?
You're going to touch on.

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Yandel Oh, quick one on Yandel.
Jeez, that buddy went S Anyway,

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we'll go.
We'll get into it right boss?

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As I said, 15%, it's a, it's
nearly as bloody shorted as

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Pilbara at the moment.
Pilbara's about I think it's

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come back to about 7 1/2.
So, but you know, a lot of the

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used stocks are I think
Paladin's bloody shorted, deep

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yellow shorted.
She's up there.

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So yeah, I thought let's let's
get in and probably on the back

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of the because we've seen the
downgrades with Paladin

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downgrade from Peninsula.
Even though Peninsula was a

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small downgrade for a small,
Scarlet was still a downgrade.

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So and the the talk is right is
bloody is boss next for a

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downgrade.
And and we looked at the

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relative performance of the
Aussie ISX listed stocks

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compared to the American ones,
especially the restart ones.

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And they've just been they've
been pretty hammered compared to

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your likes of next Gen that are
well, next gen's at an all time

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high.
Yeah, effectively now.

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So yes, well, sorry, let's get
into it.

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Still waiting on cost to be
released.

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That's a big thing they're
waiting on for for boss and

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they've said they're scheduled
to come out once the third IX

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column.
So IX that's the processing

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column that sucks the uranium
out of the solution that that's

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going to be in operation around
in December quarter.

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And I think once that's in
operation, it sounds like once

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the three are gone then the cost
is going to come out after that.

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So possibly after the OR
probably after all in line with

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when the December quarterly
results come out, I don't think

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we'll see the cost because you
look 2021 feasibility study, the

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all in costs were US 3186 a
pound.

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And a while ago now.
Yeah.

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And their base case uranium
price for that study was US 60

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bucks a pound at an exchange
rate of $0.75.

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So at that time in 2021, the
uranium term price was actually

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high, $30 a pound.
So currently sitting at $81.00 a

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pound at 65 cents, 125 bucks
Aussie today per pound.

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So that price is going up 50%.
But I think we can be pretty

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bloody confident those all in
costs out of $31.86.

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I think you could probably add
50% to them easily as a rough

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bloody Bush mass based on 2021
numbers could be, could be high.

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We won't say it until they come
out, but you can pretty much

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scrap those numbers and
anticipate the costs are going

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to be much, much higher in
today.

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So I guess the and you look at
I'll bring up the graph of what

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the, what the project was
predicting on free cash flow and

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everything.
It looks, looks like the 100 mil

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free cash flow per year once at
that sort of £2.45 million nine

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plate run rate that you know,
inclusive all your growth and

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sustaining CapEx, which is you
know what free cash flow is.

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I want to see my Bush maths is
like, well if uranium price is

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going up 50%, all the costs are
going to go up at least 50%.

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Will they make the same free
cash flow?

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Who knows, we'll get in and have
a look.

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Came to know what you peeled
out.

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Well, and I think of like these
these projects, it's like you

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got a really large fixed cost
component and then depending on

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what your actual nameplate
production is going to be, you

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know, you've got a a bit of
variable cost on the production,

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but relatively few fixed costs.
What's it going to?

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What's it going to impact?
Yeah, right.

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Like and I suppose when you're
talking about fixed costs, it's

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like it's the new bringing on
new well fields because it's

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pretty consistent.
It's like I compare it pretty

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similar to a an underground
goldmine like you, you always

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got to punch be punching the
decline to go deeper.

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And that's the same with ISR is
that you always got to be

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drilling, preconditioning,
establishing the new well fields

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once the other ones run out.
So it's like, it's like going

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deeper in an underground mine.
It just unfortunately never

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stops.
It's not a caving operation, so.

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But what one sort of
distinction, Maddie, probably

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worth chucking in.
I was reading through the the

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enhanced feasibility study, I
think they called it the one

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you're referring to there as
well.

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It takes a few years to get to
that name plate.

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So I think FY20 7 was when they
were going to get to that 2.45.

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Yeah.
And that's a function of the

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processing infrastructure as
well.

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It's like because they've only
at the moment they're just

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getting their third column
online and then next year they

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will be commissioned in the
second train of that.

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So there's columns 4-5 and six
to go in, and then you've

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obviously got to get a lot more
well fields online.

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So at the moment they've just
got their second one online.

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I think they're going to start
preconditioning the third.

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I think for £1.6 million you
need six well fields going.

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Depends on the size of the ore
body and how long they go for

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and everything.
So then for 2.45 they're going

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to need even beyond that in
terms of well fields online.

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So it's only eight £850,000 for
this financial year.

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They've gotten new as and that
was in the feasibility study.

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So they've already and it's
pretty very back end weighted

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based on that third column being
commissioned this quarter.

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So terms of the terms of the
money because they've only had

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receipts from customers so far
for 23 bucks.

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So that was 200,000 lbs.
They sold through a contract,

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but at that point they only had
drummed 119,000 lbs.

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So they actually used because
they had £1.25 million in

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inventory.
So they actually drew down some

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of that inventory to sell that
200,000 lbs.

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And then I'd say they're now
replenishing that inventory to

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get it back up there or because
that that 1.25 is effectively 6

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months worth of production when
they're at 9 plates.

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So whether they want to, they're
going to maintain that 1.25 to

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that point or draw down a bit in
the early stages for cash, who

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knows probably.
Depends on cost in some ways

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too, because you don't want to
show the market you're losing

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cash on 1/4 so you might
depending where costs are, you

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might keep depleting it.
Yeah.

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But I think if they do do that,
they're going to show even if

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they draw down inventory, it's
going to show that they're

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losing money anyway if they're
having to draw down the

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inventory.
So, so because I had 66 million

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unrestricted cash in the last
quarter.

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So say, and then you add on say
let's say they got £1.15 million

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of uranium inventory, taking
into account the draw downs,

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that's worth about 140 bucks at
current prices.

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So they've got 200 mil in the
Kitty.

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So they're in.
If you compare them to how we

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looked at Paladin the other
week, they're different.

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No debt in the cap structure and
everything.

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So in a much better position
financially with that like

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'cause I did those chunky rises
in the lead up, so I put them in

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a much, much less stressful
position financially.

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I believe so.
Yeah.

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So just to draw out there sort
of balance sheet position there,

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Maddie, they sort of called it
245,000,000 bucks in cash and

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liquid investments.
That includes a stake in Encore

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in the equity of the business,
not the JV stake as well.

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Yeah, Yeah.
So I guess CapEx coming up for

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the year, look at thing and just
focused on this cash bid.

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So because that that second
train of the IX processing so

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that's due.
So I think they've got they

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because each column produces, it
says they produce half 1,000,000

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lbs each.
So to get to 1.6 point 426,

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they'll need at least 4 columns
fully commissioned.

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So they'll be commissioning that
whole second train in 2025.

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So I'll show them it'll be the
the same process.

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They'll be commissioning one
column at a time, not waiting

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for all three to be ready, but
that because those columns are

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dependent on uranium grade.
I think 500 is like a bit of a a

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thumb suck.
The range they give, like I

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think the flow is pretty fixed
that goes into them.

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But I think if you hit a high
grade patch, like you get fuck

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load more uranium because there
was comments they produced 7400

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lbs in a single day recently.
So that's, that's like your name

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plate production right in a
single day from 2:00 columns

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instead of 6.
But it's obviously it's from a

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high grade patch at A at a fixed
flow rate.

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So I think there's there's a lot
of spikes and troughs in that

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actual processing, but I think
that's you, you need all six

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there to take into account your
highs and lows.

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So that for that second column
train back in the study, they

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allocated 26 mil Aussie for
that.

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So I got in flight that to
bloody 40 million to be

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realistic in today's dollars.
But that to my knowledge, the

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4th, 5th and 6th columns, the
columns themselves are being

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paid for and they're currently
getting shipped over.

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So it's all your, it's all your
labour costs, your steel,

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concrete, bloody foundations and
everything to install them that

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is remaining to be allocated to
the contractors and stuff.

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Yeah.
So I think, I think like a good

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well over half of that CapEx is
actually being paid for already.

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00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:35,720
So, oh, maybe what's that bloody
15 mil to go out the door or so,

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So, and because you look at that
annual cash cost and what what

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the biggest, biggest ticket
items are, you can say Labour's

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about 29%.
So that's probably going up

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frigging 50% since 2021.
Reagents and consumables are the

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other big ones.
So I think that's the was that

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38%?
I think so that's and you'd be,

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that's your lot.
Yeah, it's your sulfuric acid

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and your ferric.
So that that's the stuff that

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00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,200
makes up the Lyxibiant that's
pumped through the Paleo

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channel.
So because they get their

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00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,600
sulfuric acid from the Port
Pirie smelter.

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So there's as long as that
thing's running, they're all

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good.
Not like because Adam.

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00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,240
Prompt their supply but as the
as the cost going.

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Up.
Oh yeah, that would have, yeah,

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00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,360
that's definitely would have
definitely gone up.

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00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,560
So you probably had 30% there
ferric the other ones that's the

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iron oxidising agent that that
enhances the solubility of the

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uranium in the paleo channel.
So it leeches into the

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lectivity.
Thanks chap GPT as always.

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So yeah, so they've obviously
inflated as well.

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So and because the other, the
other aspect to consider with

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the ISR startups and this where
it gets to sort of feeds into

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00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,200
getting to that steady state
point and figuring out the cost

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00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,880
is, is the preconditioning of
the well field.

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00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,400
So that's the what when they
talk about flushing.

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00:11:57,680 --> 00:12:02,120
So I think because they've got
that second well field online,

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they got the third one coming
on.

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00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:07,720
It's like the preconditionings
when they effectively have to

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00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,480
Chuck a heap of acity water down
to let get rid of all the salt,

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00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,600
the carbonates, because the
carbonates are like copper in

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00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,880
gold processing.
If they're in there, it just

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00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,120
fucks the processing.
So they got to try to get as

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00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,640
much salt, much of the salts
out.

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00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,600
When they talk about
preconditioning before they

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actually I shouldn't, then they
just add the ferric in and

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that's what helps it.
I'm not sure, I'm not sure about

224
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,200
that.
But that initial

225
00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,120
preconditioning, I think it
requires a shit load of acid.

226
00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,800
So you obviously got a lot of
higher acid costs at the start

227
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:41,760
when you're doing the
preconditioning until you get

228
00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:49,560
the thing into steady state.
So that I think once I have like

229
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,240
once I guess once you get to the
point when you got six well

230
00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,720
fields online, you got some in
steady state that you then

231
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,520
precondition in the next well
fields to get them ready.

232
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,560
Probably got a better bloody
gauge on what the actual because

233
00:13:00,560 --> 00:13:03,760
that is your highest cost the
reagents.

234
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,720
Yeah, I think that's why they
probably signed.

235
00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,640
We need to get straight columns
gone, get the thing into steady

236
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:11,560
state and we'll have whether
they whether they just don't

237
00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:14,240
know what the actual costs are
until it's in steady state.

238
00:13:14,560 --> 00:13:17,120
And I think because I think they
get to a point, I think I don't

239
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:21,520
know if it's proven or done, but
I think once a well filled

240
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,680
finishes they will then because
you still got all the solution

241
00:13:25,680 --> 00:13:28,800
in there.
It's sucking that back out

242
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:33,800
effectively, I think and
recycling that solution and then

243
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,120
using that to then go into
precondition other ones.

244
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,720
So you're not actually at the
moment it's all upfront reagent

245
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,440
costs to get everything going,
but there's AI think a chance I

246
00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,160
can actually recycle it later on
for the future.

247
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,160
Well, fields don't know.
Don't know if that's proven or

248
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,240
done yet.
And there might be a trade off

249
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:56,640
on it, on the on the actual kind
of parameters, on solution grade

250
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,520
or or recovery's result of
recycling.

251
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,760
Not not sure not sure like you
think.

252
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:04,360
I don't know if the if it's
still got the same acid content

253
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:05,720
you would share.
I don't think I don't know if

254
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,440
the acid concentration or you
haven't got to add as much acid

255
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,960
back in to get it to the
required grade to actually use

256
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,600
it again.
I'm not not sure.

257
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,560
I think there's easy from behind
my microphone.

258
00:14:17,680 --> 00:14:21,280
It sounds fucking complex, but
got to be a chemist for that

259
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,560
shit.
So that might actually help in

260
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,160
the actual cash flow side of
things with me bloody screen

261
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,320
guy.
And then you can see also a lot

262
00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,520
the big and this is what you
refer to with the the, the

263
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,360
ongoing sustaining capital or
growth capital, however you look

264
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:42,480
at it is what's required in the
future for relocating well field

265
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,680
infrastructure because you
obviously got to remove it

266
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,560
around the bloody the tenement
rescreen and the existing wells

267
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,120
drilling and casing and
screening the new well fields

268
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,440
like and.
That gorge dam, which is like 70

269
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,520
kilometres away, which there'd
be a fair bit of infrastructure

270
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,360
as well to connect it and things
like that.

271
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,720
Right.
Depends how they do it.

272
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,800
So I think you could either run
a fucking big long pipe, right

273
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,000
and create the circuit that way,
yeah.

274
00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:13,280
Or they can build another
effectively build other columns

275
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:19,240
out there and then process it
there and take the essentially

276
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,120
extract the uranium and then
bring it back into the I think

277
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,760
it's the illusion, bring it back
and then Chuck it in the

278
00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,760
illusion circuit at honeymoon.
So that would be the trade off

279
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:34,000
to figure out how they got a
with the CapEx in pipes or

280
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,880
actually build some more columns
out there to do it.

281
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,560
So not yet determine which way
they'd go with it.

282
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,280
So you could say like in years
four and five where the the new

283
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:47,960
well field dollars start adding
up as you're having to frigging,

284
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,760
you know, OK, I think there's 60
odd well fields through the life

285
00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,480
of mine that they'll actually
tap into based on what they got

286
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,120
at the moment.
So because those those well

287
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,920
fields I think they last from
depending on the size of the ore

288
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,480
body that they're like the area
of influence of that well field

289
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,480
could be six months up to like 2
years depending on how big it

290
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,880
is.
So yeah, I think I think until

291
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,960
that third columns in operation,
there are few well fields in

292
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,240
steady state bloody them and us
won't know what the actual

293
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,920
bloody costs properly are.
So all in cost will be the one

294
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,120
to look at it. 31 bucks
previously considering if

295
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,480
they're selling uranium at 80
bucks a pound, will the all in

296
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,840
cost God, if they're Chuck 50%
on at 45 bucks, if they can sell

297
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,480
in the heads up to 90 like
that's a 50% margin.

298
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,680
But whether uranium prices go up
to there, whether the costs are

299
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,800
in the 40s for the all in, we
don't know yet.

300
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,360
So that's going to be the big
number, big number to watch to

301
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,120
see how much money they're
actually going to make, so.

302
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,680
Yeah.
Just on that, Maddie, I did a

303
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,760
bit of back of the envelope Bush
maths as you kind of call it,

304
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:03,480
one for sort of a 80 bucks
scenario and another for $100.

305
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:09,440
And just looking at say 2026,
call it 50 bucks costs across

306
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:14,680
their operations, assuming 80
bucks here, you can get to sort

307
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:20,079
of 60 million US bucks in, in
EBITDA from Honeymoon, $18

308
00:17:20,079 --> 00:17:23,319
million for their 30% at Alta
Mesa.

309
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:28,560
And you know, all up that's US
78 or $120 million Aussie

310
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,000
EBITDA.
So that they've got an EV now of

311
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,320
$1 billion roughly give give or
take.

312
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:37,680
So you can sort of do the quick
maths.

313
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,000
It's a bit over 8 times EV to
EBITDA.

314
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,040
Again, super, super rough
numbers and that's pretty

315
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,600
sensitive to that, that uranium
price as well.

316
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:50,160
Obviously if that flexes up to
say 100 bucks, you're talking

317
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:54,480
about a bit over five times so.
I trust your master ID more than

318
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:55,960
mine.
I love it, love it.

319
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,960
A lot of assumptions going into
that back in the envelope sort

320
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,880
of stuff.
That's what the best stuff is.

321
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:05,920
So the biggest I guess the going
forward like it looks like, it

322
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:11,120
looks like they'll comfortably
make that 850,000 pound target

323
00:18:11,120 --> 00:18:13,320
based on what they're getting
and then they're having these

324
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,560
big days and then.
FY25 production.

325
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,760
For FY25, it's like and it's,
it's the early the early days of

326
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,000
the well fields as well.
So I think if you're they're

327
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,240
getting those, they go through a
high grade patch and have those

328
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,360
big days.
But obviously as the, as the

329
00:18:28,360 --> 00:18:31,960
well field gets older and like
all the uranium starts going out

330
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,520
of it, they, they decay.
And like the biggest, the

331
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,720
biggest challenge for them going
forward is like, because they

332
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,080
each well field will naturally
decay and how much uranium it's

333
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:46,040
pumping out, it's bringing on
the new, the new well fields to,

334
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,800
and obviously there's multiple,
multiple well fields.

335
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,840
So as ones decaying, then you've
got to bring other ones on and

336
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,320
they hit their sweet spot at the
start and then they start

337
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,480
decaying and it's just a like
when you got they're going to

338
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,200
have, I assume it'll be up near
10 well fields going at once to

339
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,040
get to 2.45 in the future.
It's going to be a big a big

340
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,920
balance and act.
So it's just something to

341
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,360
consider.
You're not going to you're not

342
00:19:09,360 --> 00:19:12,760
going to just pump out 7000 four
400 lbs every day.

343
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,280
It's just they've obviously hit
an early sweet spot there in a

344
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,520
high grade patch.
So looks.

345
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,720
Because out in prompt show a
cool chart talking about exactly

346
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,080
what you're saying there,
Maddie.

347
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,920
And it's like lots of different
waves as they sort of come

348
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:27,280
online.
You know, you got a sort of

349
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,080
graph with heaps of different
waves that sort of get there

350
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,760
over an extended amount of
months, you know, and then they

351
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,720
they tail off and you got to
bring the next one online.

352
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,560
Yeah.
And I think that big thing is

353
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,320
that is the preconditioning as
well.

354
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:42,400
It's like pre, which obviously
requires a lot like the

355
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,080
sustaining capital to do it, but
they need to be preconditioning

356
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,800
well fields like, you know, six
months ahead of time having

357
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,400
precondition ready to go,
because if one other well field

358
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,680
fucks up, you got 1 sitting
there ready to go that you can

359
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,560
start doing that.
So it's keep really keeping your

360
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,200
head and yourself on the
preconditioning and but it's,

361
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:07,200
it's not the actual you look at
the columns and the processing

362
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,920
you think, right, they have to
get the columns in.

363
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,680
That's the the critical path to
getting the.

364
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,920
Getting the pounds, I think the
columns and the processing look

365
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:20,680
to be the easy part.
It's not not easy, but easier.

366
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,520
It's bringing on new well fields
and like continuing to feed the

367
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,120
resource and you got to
obviously bring the well fields

368
00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:30,200
on, precondition them, but then
the well fields have got to

369
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,240
perform as well.
So I think that's what all the

370
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:36,480
delineation drillings for to get
a good grasp on what the grade

371
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,160
is the best you can, but then
hoping the well field leeches

372
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,320
accordingly based on the
previous well fields

373
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,080
performance.
Like the the critical path for

374
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,560
them is making sure the well
fields are coming online and

375
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,560
performing, especially when you
got potentially 10 of them or

376
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:56,280
something in the future.
That's a lot of moving parts to

377
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,400
make sure is all flowing unison
to get inside.

378
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,560
It's it's probably a lot easier
at the moment focusing on two

379
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,040
well fields and getting it
right.

380
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,920
When you get into the bigger
numbers, that's obviously when

381
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,080
it becomes a a lot more to
manage.

382
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:15,800
So yeah, it'd be interesting to
see once the I guess December

383
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,360
quarterly comes out if it looks
like they're on track for

384
00:21:18,360 --> 00:21:20,400
gardens, they haven't burnt too
much cash.

385
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,080
Interesting to see what that
bloody that short position does.

386
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,840
As always could be like there
was 11 chat about there's

387
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:33,960
potentially the the pairs trade
of like long next Gen and short

388
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:39,200
the race starts short your
paladins, your DPL as your boss

389
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:40,920
and all that.
So you know, obviously because

390
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,440
you've seen next Gen do this and
these ones do this.

391
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,600
So whether there's a bit of that
at play or not, yeah, which

392
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,440
which would make a bit of sense.
If you're, if you are like a

393
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,680
mining project that is like, you
know, losing money and a lot of

394
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,120
ramp up projects will lose money
for a period of time before they

395
00:21:54,120 --> 00:21:57,880
can reach stand plate.
You can't fight gravity forever.

396
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,000
Even if all the ETF inflows
come, you, you know, your, your

397
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,320
share price will it, it doesn't
defy gravity.

398
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,000
You know, the cash flow is what
kind of dictates things.

399
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,800
So I can totally understand the
the pairs trade that people

400
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,520
would come up with and think,
well, I'll a long quality and

401
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,520
I'll I'll short sort of
something that I think is needs

402
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:17,880
funded.
Yeah.

403
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,000
Need or need, you know, needs
needs funding or something like

404
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,320
that.
Like a peloton, Yeah.

405
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,480
Boss, I don't, I don't think you
can really attribute too much to

406
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,280
Ultimessa at this stage.
I know they've got the marketing

407
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,880
rights for their 30% share of
production, but I don't think

408
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,760
that projects at sort of free
cash flow stage yet.

409
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,760
And I think it's a bit of a
longer, slower ramp up and it's

410
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,800
a smaller scale.
I think it's only one and a half

411
00:22:38,120 --> 00:22:39,680
million pounds.
I think that's going to be fully

412
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:44,440
ramped in FY20 6.
So might be an actual M and I

413
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,920
option for Boss in the future
because they could they could

414
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:53,480
merge with Encore and then take
100% and probably make the most

415
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,120
sense as a player you'd pick for
them at the moment considering

416
00:22:57,120 --> 00:22:59,080
they've already got 30% in the
project.

417
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,440
So.
And we've seen Peninsula appears

418
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,520
distressed.
Maybe they'd look at that if it

419
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,560
was cheap enough.
Only 165 mil market cap and

420
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,760
losses 1.2 bill.
So it wouldn't be too dilutive

421
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,200
as a script deal.
But they're always to stress for

422
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:16,760
a reason.
Sometimes you got to think of

423
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,480
that.
So because we're we've seen them

424
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,920
have the sneaky stab in the dark
at Ari.

425
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,120
So they're obviously on the look
for a deal.

426
00:23:24,120 --> 00:23:27,720
So ISR ones probably.
Sorry, JD.

427
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,800
Did you did you see the slide in
their most recent I think it was

428
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,000
their AGM praise big bold
capital letters boss is open for

429
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,840
business are the M and a
heading.

430
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:39,920
So that's.
Pretty conclusive then.

431
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:44,080
Yeah, they are looking and they
are looking in Canada, North

432
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,040
America and Australia.
Yeah, they're a lot.

433
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,640
Look, ISR ones might make sense
at the moment because if you've

434
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,600
got, they've got the operational
team because they've done it at

435
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,000
Honeymoon.
So because there's not much to

436
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,800
pick from in Australia, I don't
think like because you've got

437
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,600
Alligator Energy down in South
Australia, they've got that

438
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,040
black Bush, plum Bush project
and that I think that's

439
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,080
potentially £1.2 million based
on their study.

440
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,000
So I haven't looked into it too
much.

441
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,440
It's 150 mil market cap.
Impressive grades looked at

442
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,800
their lot, that intersection,
they're pretty thin

443
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,880
intersections, but all the
grades are over 1001

444
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,040
intersection was 1.3 metres at
19,000 PPM.

445
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,320
So because the other ones in
South Australia or they're

446
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,480
essentially private because that
Beverly is operated by

447
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:35,600
Heathgate, which is a wholly
owned by that US nuclear company

448
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,080
General Atomics.
And then Four Mile is operated

449
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,280
by, well, it's Quasar Resources,
but looks like that's a

450
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,600
subsidiary of Heathgate, which
is General Atomics.

451
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,960
So it's effectively privately
owned by General Atomics by the

452
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,640
sounds.
So because you can put a line

453
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,160
through WA for the moment.
Well, you think Paladin got

454
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,000
control of what anything that
will come on in WA with them and

455
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,600
Ng ISR projects.
So unless I can pinch that off.

456
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,960
So you'd be left to go overseas
for ISR with I guess what

457
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,720
they've done at the moment with
Encore, Your Peninsulas and any

458
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,560
other ISR ones.
But doesn't look like they're

459
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,400
scared of Hard Rock either if
they they'll go on for Ari.

460
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,160
Like who fucking wouldn't go for
Ari?

461
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,960
But I'll say they'll be getting
active in the next 24 months or

462
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:25,000
so, or 2.4 months, who knows.
I'm looking at that S Australian

463
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,600
uranium map there, Maddie, and I
can see some dots on there.

464
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,920
Oh mate, it's it's actually
reminds me a lot of dot the dots

465
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,680
or spots on this map we've just
seen on LinkedIn.

466
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:40,160
Have a look at that.
The bloody the the G dots in WA

467
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:45,440
or the G spots you'd say the
grounded bloody construction

468
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,800
group just scouring the WA map
with dots or spots.

469
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,640
Whichever way you want to call
it mate, this is this.

470
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,760
The low locations of their
bloody remote village work,

471
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,560
processing, infrastructure work.
Just mate, design, construct,

472
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,440
install, relocate.
The Grounded construction group

473
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:10,160
will give bring a bloody
Sicilian feel to WI

474
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,120
construction.
Looks like there's some freckles

475
00:26:12,120 --> 00:26:14,720
in the Pilbara with all of the
the G spots there mate.

476
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,640
And Oh my, Christmas Island it
looks.

477
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,960
Bloody it looks, bloody
sensitive doesn't.

478
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,120
It amazing.
Good on your pole, I told.

479
00:26:21,120 --> 00:26:23,480
You get a good.
Ball, get a great ground and

480
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,040
wherever you are.
Oh, get a.

481
00:26:25,120 --> 00:26:28,360
Get a dot on the OR a spot on
the WI map.

482
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,120
Yeah, Matthew, I've got a couple
of points to Yeah, to add to

483
00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:34,400
your to your bit there.
When you mentioned Peninsula

484
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,040
energy, I thought I could add
add something based on the very

485
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,800
brief bit of research on on ISL
project economics I did this

486
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,880
morning.
So I was reading this IAEA

487
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:48,280
nuclear kind of energy Bible on
in situ each mining and there's

488
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,560
this interesting paragraph on
the on the challenges of small

489
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,840
scale ISL production, which
potentially is I'll I'll read

490
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,360
out this this paragraph.
It says.

491
00:26:56,120 --> 00:26:58,720
It is important to note that
economies of scale and output

492
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,040
are particularly important in
commercial industrial scale

493
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,120
uranium production.
The situation derives from

494
00:27:03,120 --> 00:27:05,760
increased regulatory,
administrative and legal burdens

495
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,840
on uranium production in
comparison with other mineral

496
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,920
production.
These increased burdens dictate

497
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,520
that small projects producing
less than 400 tonnes of U per

498
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,200
annum may prove to be less
profitable, or even are not

499
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,800
economical.
This threshold is not a firm

500
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,880
figure and may vary between
localities, jurisdictions and

501
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,040
with time.
So keep in mind this was written

502
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:27,880
in 2016.
But I think I think it's a

503
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:33,920
pretty valid .400 tonnes of U is
£1.04 million per annum over

504
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,840
U3O8 apparently.
So look Peninsula.

505
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:40,680
They're still guiding to get to
at least £1.4 million per annum

506
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,080
at Lance eventually.
But I think the small scale has

507
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,800
certainly got a factor into the
like, you know, unattractiveness

508
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,640
of the project.
No one has has moved on it yet.

509
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,440
And it's, and it's coming to
repeatedly kind of, you know,

510
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,640
disappointed on, on funding kind
of gaps along the way.

511
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,200
And, and, you know, it was
probably, it's probably there

512
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,080
for the taking for someone that
we wanted to be opportunistic,

513
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,800
but no one, no one's come right.
And maybe maybe the scale is a

514
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,240
kind of a big factor in that
equation based on sort of some

515
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,320
of the reading I've done.
The other thing I wanted to to

516
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,360
throw out there, it's also like
a point you and JD actually just

517
00:28:10,360 --> 00:28:12,800
touched on, right?
And it was, I'm specifically

518
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,680
interested with that, yeah.
What happens to your solution

519
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,520
grade over time?
What's the shape of that curve?

520
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,360
Right.
As you mentioned it decays.

521
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:25,200
So and I remember Boss's
feasibility study, it assumes 47

522
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,840
MG milligrammes per litre life
of mine average or that's like

523
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,840
47 PPM same time.
And it also said that

524
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,080
historically the asset had
historically each performance

525
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:41,680
was 53 MG per L on average.
What we've seen in in the data

526
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,280
from BOSS so far as it as it's
been commissioning is, is north

527
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,240
of that.
So in June quarter it was 80

528
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,080
milligrammes per litre.
The next quarter it averaged 71

529
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,920
milligrammes per litre.
So I kind of got curious to see

530
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,880
if you know what that natural
kind of solution grade decline

531
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,800
was like with these operations
with each well field.

532
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,720
And the handbook said, yes, ISL
wells typically exhibit a

533
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,520
progressive decline solution
grade and a progressive gain in

534
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,240
uranium recovery though.
So, you know, you can, you can

535
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,080
see the red lines on this chart
that I've, I've got here kind of

536
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,520
matches the description you said
earlier.

537
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,160
JD, these ISL wells.
They, they, yeah, the shape of

538
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,200
that curve just, I think it's
just worth wrapping your head

539
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,400
around, right?
Because the red lines there,

540
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,560
they're, they're, they're two
different sort of solution grade

541
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,160
declines.
According to the handbook.

542
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,520
It's the solution grade there,
which can decay relatively

543
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,200
quickly.
And that's, that's just the one

544
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,040
parameter, you know, I'm going
to be keeping my eye on as, as

545
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,400
boss continues to report.
Of course, they're bringing new

546
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,880
well fields online.
But you sort of when you start

547
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,360
mining, you focus on the highest
grade first so that you know

548
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,800
each well field has its own kind
of decline, but the whole

549
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,560
project as a whole might exhibit
a sort of great decline over

550
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:47,880
time as well too.
Yeah.

551
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,400
And I think it's it'll be best
when there's like at least six

552
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,960
or more online.
It's probably hard to measure

553
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,600
off like just having two because
I don't know the ones that are

554
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,680
online if they're how long their
life is either.

555
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:06,800
So as I said, because they can
be 6 to 26 months to two years.

556
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,360
So like obviously if you, if
you've got a short one, you're

557
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,640
going to start, yeah, it's in a
few months time you're going to

558
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,520
start really declining.
But I'll show them a two year 1

559
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,320
like you, just that thing gets
stretched out.

560
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,600
Yeah.
So we will see.

561
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,240
We will see.
Cash doesn't lie.

562
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,040
It's just a quick one.
Yeah, the bill, yeah.

563
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,200
How much uranium's coming here?
How much is in the shipping

564
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,640
containers?
Just a wrap on boss as well

565
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,440
fellas.
Just see the the voting in the

566
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,680
AGM that came out late last week
did it was, yeah, it was, it was

567
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,760
pretty bad.
It was sort of 20% plus votes

568
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:48,120
against on, on everything except
the, the, the placement capacity

569
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,400
type 1.
So it was a few unhappy

570
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,880
shareholders on the on the back
of, you know, stuff that's

571
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,320
happened over the past financial
year.

572
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:56,800
It was kind of interesting to
see how.

573
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:02,800
Good was the the the Bellevue
one that got through by .5 of a

574
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,040
percent.
Talk about a whisker A.

575
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,120
Whisker, the performance rods
are going like 50.

576
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:12,400
Was it 50.7% or something?
Hey, as long as it's like going

577
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,640
to uni, as long as you get over
50, it's all good.

578
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:21,400
That was my theory, I loved it.
Right.

579
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,240
Next up, Evos to sell Mangari
question mark.

580
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,280
Question mark indeed.
So this was data room Goss that

581
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,400
came out over the weekend and
the company, you know,

582
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,000
subsequently came out and denied
this today.

583
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,280
But I'd already sort of had a go
at reading up and learning about

584
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:39,440
it.
So I thought we'd chat about it

585
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,360
regardless.
So if you, if you look in that

586
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,680
article, there was a couple of
other interesting details which

587
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,040
you mentioned at the top of the
show, Maddie Zejin being named

588
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,200
and you know, Chinese interests
and all that sort of stuff.

589
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,960
So I thought it was kind of
worth a chat about as well as

590
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,560
the the quoted price tag, 600
million to a billion dollars

591
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,880
also something.
It didn't say that that that was

592
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:01,520
the price tag.
It said analysts value.

593
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,680
Well, analysts.
Much on their on their reports,

594
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,600
yeah.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

595
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,000
So I thought, again, that was
worth sort of chatting about and

596
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,600
seeing what an actual price tag
might look like if there were to

597
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,280
be a a sale.
So to give people a bit of a

598
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,280
recap on Mangari, they've got a
big round of investment going on

599
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,640
at the moment, sort of dubbed
Mangari 4.2.

600
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,680
Sort of says in the 9 year
you're getting mill capacity up

601
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,840
to 4.2 from current 2,000,000
tonne per annum rate costing

602
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,640
them 250 million bucks all up
over sort of 30 months.

603
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,480
They're about 14 or 15 months
into that.

604
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,400
I think at the moment running on
budget and actually slightly

605
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,480
ahead of schedule, which is good
to say due to complete in March

606
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,640
26.
So importantly, this should get

607
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,280
output to about 200,000 oz per
annum for the first five years.

608
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,560
The company is keen with
exploration, underground

609
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,640
exploration, drilling to get
that for the rest of the life of

610
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:03,080
mine, which is roughly 14 years.
But right now 200,000 oz for

611
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,280
about the first five years is
what they've got.

612
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,280
And also very importantly,
pulling those costs down.

613
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,040
So they mentioned a while back,
I'm not sure if this one still

614
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,200
holds true, 1750 oil and
sustaining cost.

615
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,800
Cost did blow out quite a bit
kind of recently though.

616
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:23,080
So FY24 numbers was about
130,000 ounces initially guided

617
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:27,400
at just under 2000, all in
sustaining costs per oz came in

618
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,440
over 2500.
So they had problems at at

619
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,520
Paradigm, one of the mines
there, as well as weather.

620
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,280
You guys remember, I think it
was January of this year when

621
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,000
everyone sort of got hit in the
area.

622
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,080
No exception Evo's here.
They got kind of whacked around

623
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,080
by the weather.
Yeah.

624
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,600
But they they've been saying
that well still, still

625
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,440
suggesting that Mankara kind of
post expansion, you know,

626
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,160
becomes one of its cornerstone
assets in the portfolio.

627
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:52,480
That's.
Right.

628
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,880
That's right.
In this at the start I was like

629
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,640
just from a dumbass point of
view on what why?

630
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,320
While it's going on through
expansion and they're deploying

631
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,120
capital, why would they want to
be selling it?

632
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,080
Well, that they were pretty
quick to knock back.

633
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,520
Like there was an article that
went up in Mining News like a

634
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,000
couple of hours into the morning
which basically said Evolution's

635
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,800
not selling this asset.
So that, you know, it seems like

636
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,719
a story that maybe Bridget's
gotten from somewhere else and

637
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,920
hasn't verified the company.
But yeah, we, you know, go.

638
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,560
Verify.
I think like everything's still

639
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,480
got a price, right?
Like if you get, if you get a,

640
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,360
if you get a massive offer at a
price that sort of is above what

641
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,480
you know, your own internal
forecasts are you, you, you tend

642
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,159
to kind of entertain it.
I'll say you did say this is a

643
00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:39,840
seller's time to sell, not the
time to buy on the show.

644
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,280
Exactly.
Yeah, you're taking the words

645
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,600
out of my Mathmatty, Jake.
Jake line of all people would

646
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,280
understand that everything has a
price.

647
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:52,120
So just to recap on the on the
asset 14 year mine life like I

648
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,760
said and becoming more and more
underground.

649
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:59,360
So they got about 125 million
tonnes at 1.45 grammes per

650
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:00,760
tonne.
So that's just under 6,000,000

651
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,880
oz.
About 3.2 of that is open pit

652
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:10,080
and 2.5 right now comes from the
underground and it's just going

653
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:15,000
to trend that way over time.
So to, to get into like why they

654
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,160
might seller, why we're kind of
talking about this you, you got

655
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,480
to kind of talk about
evolutions, portfolio strategy.

656
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,200
It's something they always talk
about with with pretty good

657
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,040
reason.
I reckon it's been decently

658
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,440
successful over there 1213 year
history.

659
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,960
They've done a a great job at
sort of migrating their way up

660
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,800
from the smaller high cost to
the, the longer life, the bigger

661
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,840
production, lower cost
operations.

662
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,160
And I think it's worth just
playing a little snippet from

663
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,840
the AGM that was last week.
So this is from Laurie Conway

664
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:47,040
the the CEO kind of putting into
perspective how they talk about

665
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,400
their strategy.
Not in our portfolio in 2011

666
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:54,040
when we commenced as evolution.
So it shows that our strategy

667
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,600
works whereby we do not get
emotionally attached to an asset

668
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,920
when it is the right time to
sell it, we have sold it and

669
00:35:59,920 --> 00:36:02,200
when it's the right time to
acquire an asset, we've acquired

670
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,280
an asset.
That's lifted our average mine

671
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,520
life from five years when we
started to now 18 years as a

672
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,280
minimum.
As Jake said, there's a lot more

673
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:13,120
opportunities there.
So there, there you kind of go

674
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,320
and you can see in this chart,
we'll we'll flash up now how

675
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,000
they sort of stack their various
portfolio assets.

676
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,360
And you can sort of see Mangari
sitting, you know, on the on the

677
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,840
bottom left, where as they've
been sort of migrating up into

678
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,160
the the right there.
And you know, this, this sort of

679
00:36:29,240 --> 00:36:33,160
has for those kind of listening
in on the X axis mine life and

680
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,160
on the Y axis, it's got annual
production.

681
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,280
So it's, it's not perfect.
It's just gives you a bit of a,

682
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:43,320
a proxy, you know, production in
mine life of what these assets

683
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,360
can sort of do and how they kind
of think about them.

684
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,720
But obviously what ultimately
matters is the cash flow that

685
00:36:47,720 --> 00:36:51,120
these assets generate and for
how many years they're going to

686
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,920
generate that kind of cash flow.
But you can still kind of get

687
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,600
the feeling that that Mangari's
not the best asset that they've

688
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:02,600
got.
And you know, 130,000 oz at 2600

689
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,360
all in sustaining cost.
Again, they're going to want to

690
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:09,520
push that down, but that FY25
guidance isn't outstanding.

691
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,760
And without the kick up we've
seen in in the gold price over

692
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,320
the last year, that would kind
of be struggling to to make

693
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:17,520
money.
So it's kind of interesting to

694
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,880
think about it in that
perspective, hence the

695
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,200
investment that they want to put
into that, that asset.

696
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,840
I suppose, but it it should be
making all right money now at

697
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,200
4000 bucks. 4000 bucks.
It definitely should be mate,

698
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,160
just like the majority.
The other guy, the other gold

699
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,760
mine that is mining gold there.
You go mate, absolutely should.

700
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:41,080
Well.
They'll definitely be help

701
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,440
making money JD from the
stability of the Sandvik ground

702
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,760
support supply.
I would say they'll never let

703
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,080
evolution down at Mangari with
especially going more

704
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,800
underground.
That's more Sandvik ground

705
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,120
support.
Don't.

706
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:59,200
Let anyone down mate.
Mate they're not even letting

707
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,360
the jumbo operators down.
They might have been letting

708
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:06,120
them down before with the smell
of the gooey bolt resin that was

709
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:07,920
used.
Used to be bloody high as a kite

710
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:13,120
down there, but the new thing
out, the bloody styrene free

711
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:17,840
resin brought to you by Sandvik,
doesn't stink.

712
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,360
Really doesn't stink.
So you're not walking around

713
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,920
tripping balls underground
anymore because it just doesn't

714
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,760
stink.
That's impressive.

715
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,280
That is bloody impressive.
So mate, you can't put a price

716
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,360
on making jump operators happy.
And that's what the Sandvik

717
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:36,600
Ground Support Division are now
doing, courtesy of the one and

718
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:41,440
only Derek Hurd.
Styrene free styrene free resin.

719
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:42,800
So have.
A Christmas present.

720
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,120
That helps you get the bolts in
mate and then when you get.

721
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,400
There just like you're just
concentrating better because

722
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:52,080
you're not like so you've got a
bit potent down there mate.

723
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,280
Jump off rows.
If you listen, don't try and eat

724
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,240
it just because it doesn't
stink.

725
00:38:56,240 --> 00:38:57,720
It's probably still not good for
you.

726
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,280
Good on you, Derek.
Put that on your MSDS sheets.

727
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,960
Don't eat the store and free
resin.

728
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,440
Go Derek Hurd.
Love your work and so.

729
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,040
Love it mate, and like your mic
arm says, you know that helps

730
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,040
you get the box in, but then if
you need to get the box out

731
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,200
before they do, oh meal Mozzie
will help you out too.

732
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,960
Oh mate, then all the resin that
comes up there, even Mozzie

733
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,720
won't be getting high anymore.
Unfortunate.

734
00:39:19,720 --> 00:39:21,160
Mozzie might have liked getting
high.

735
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,920
It's contract and cheers for the
mic.

736
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,960
Of course, yeah.
I mean, this the, the expansion,

737
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,600
like you say, JD there at
Mangari will look to address

738
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,560
that cost increase.
And yeah, I, I think it's worth

739
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,200
pointing out when, when
Evolution announced the

740
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,200
expansion of Mangari at last
year's strategy day, that

741
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,960
expansion itself had an IRR of
28% at 2000.

742
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,920
You know, Aussie dollars, 2965
bucks an ounce.

743
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,960
Gold is now over $1000 higher
than that, of course.

744
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:53,360
So you know, I, you know, it's,
it's, it's value in the

745
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,400
portfolio should be if, if you
know fair bit, fair bit kind of

746
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,360
higher than year 425 guidance,
we'll, we'll signal just as a

747
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,360
result of gold price movement
and the, you know, and the

748
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,480
economics of the expansion case
in in and of itself.

749
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,120
Yeah, yeah, definitely.
I think as I sort of said in the

750
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,840
AGM, it's, you know, it's, it's
getting to harvesting cash kind

751
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,760
of time as well.
It should be generating decent

752
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,160
cash and then the year beyond
that, even more cash, but still

753
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:19,840
just going back to that
strategy.

754
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,720
Exactly like you said, Maddie,
thinking along the the lines of

755
00:40:23,720 --> 00:40:26,440
Jake's sort of tone when, when
we had him on a few weeks back,

756
00:40:26,720 --> 00:40:29,240
more of a seller's market than a
than a buyer's market.

757
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,920
So I think, you know, if a
compelling offer where to sort

758
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,000
of come through, they'd, they'd
definitely sort of study it.

759
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,120
And just on the, on the timing
as you kind of intro, it's, it's

760
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,800
not a bad time at all.
You know, this hasn't had a

761
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,760
great run for a few years now.
They've just sort of spruced it

762
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,160
up.
You could really sort of, you

763
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,840
know, sell the dream of a
200,000 oz per annum lowered all

764
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,040
in sustaining cost, gold prices
flying.

765
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,680
But, you know, that's that's one
way an investment banker might

766
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,560
be thinking about dressing this
thing up if they were to kind of

767
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,320
go down that route.
God, you think with a 4 million

768
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:07,320
tonne mill 200,000 oz buddy you
get more than a billion?

769
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,360
Yeah, totally.
That number's the wrong number.

770
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,320
Yeah.
Which I'm gonna you know, I've

771
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:15,120
I've written a bit up about that
point.

772
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,320
It's definitely it's worth north
of that, Yeah.

773
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,600
Yeah, I mean, that leads us
perfectly to the point.

774
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,480
First of all, who do you reckon
would kind of Chuck their hat in

775
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,000
the ring?
You kind of got Zijin, as we

776
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,040
mentioned, being named.
This is a a super, super

777
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,560
interesting one.
So the recent track record of

778
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,480
Chinese buyers in Australia
hasn't exactly been stellar.

779
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,640
The ones that kind of come to
mind, Yan Cole, they kind of

780
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,320
quietly walked away from Anglo
Cole's.

781
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,880
I mean, they mentioned Chinese
sort of approvals, but maybe

782
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,760
they saw the the writing on the
wall as well.

783
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:54,480
You've also got the the crazy
backed CZR, who you know, Ferb

784
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,880
has just been stalling month
after month after month comes

785
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:02,160
with Yeah, I can.
I can see a different, I can

786
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,280
paint a different picture here.
Like with CZR, there was also

787
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,800
kind of a, you know, a port that
is of interest to there was, you

788
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:12,560
know, CZR owned a portion of
this kind of ash Ashburton link

789
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,640
project, which would have been a
proposed fight there any time

790
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:19,040
around kind of port.
Now the Chinese imports is could

791
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:20,280
be a bit of a national security
thing.

792
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,960
You could argue there with with
with yank or like they seemingly

793
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,320
never quite got to test what Feb
would do because the Chinese

794
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,040
approvals didn't get there is
what was reported in the media.

795
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,600
So even though I was sceptical
Yanko would have gotten an

796
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,600
approval on that one.
So I I think it's still an open

797
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,560
question and I think gold is,
you know, it's, it's

798
00:42:38,720 --> 00:42:40,760
specifically not a critical
mineral.

799
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,520
It's where there's, there's
still plenty of of Chinese

800
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,480
ownership and plenty of gold
projects across across

801
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,440
Australia.
I'm watching to see if Mount

802
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,240
Bundy's recent sale to your
things, you know, Mongolia coal,

803
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,720
whether that gets the fib tick
of approval.

804
00:42:54,720 --> 00:42:57,560
That's a gold project in the NT.
I haven't had an update from

805
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,240
sort of Hanking's announcements
to see what the fib status of

806
00:43:01,240 --> 00:43:03,320
that is yet.
But I feel like that's the

807
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:08,120
litmus test to see to see if,
if, if Chinese investment in in

808
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,760
gold projects in Australia would
actually be sort of OK with at

809
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,680
this point in time.
I think I mean the Yanko one

810
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,160
because it is a difference when
they're like it's AISX listed

811
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:23,880
company versus Z Gin coming in
outright to buy a project.

812
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,680
Like I just, I just can't say it
happening.

813
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,640
Yeah, I don't know.
I mean like Z Gin is welcome to

814
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,000
expand their existing operations
that's investing capital in

815
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:32,680
Calgary.
This would be acquisition of

816
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,440
something pretty nearby
operations they already own and

817
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,720
operate and are expanding, which
you know, I think you could, you

818
00:43:39,720 --> 00:43:43,480
could have a decent case.
But to your point, like there's

819
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,680
been zero deal activity from
from Norton Goldfields or CG and

820
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,560
all sort of any, any Chinese
parties on West Australian gold

821
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,040
projects for like the best part
of four, four years.

822
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:57,680
And whether or not that can
change is is kind of a question

823
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,520
mark based on that what Fed
would do?

824
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,840
Yeah, because what min Min you
had minjar that obviously.

825
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,600
They've been divesting.
Yeah, that that obviously they

826
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,760
had the, I don't know, was it
receivership or something or no

827
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,960
portal pulled their contract
out, so they didn't get paid.

828
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,520
By they, they were selling their
selling cross gold operations,

829
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,720
but they I don't think that I
think that just sort of ended

830
00:44:17,720 --> 00:44:22,760
without selling and they did,
they did sell their Golden

831
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:27,240
Dragon project which was in care
and maintenance.

832
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,280
Yeah, yeah, I'll be.
Who knows?

833
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:35,320
It's yeah, it's I think
definitely a harder environment

834
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:39,600
than it was gone back a a few
years and would be a smoother

835
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,040
transaction if it were a an
Aussie midcap kind of minor

836
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,920
looking at it.
But let's let's talk about the

837
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,480
valuation now, because this is
this is where it gets kind of

838
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:51,520
interesting and just plucking
some numbers out from what the

839
00:44:51,720 --> 00:44:53,720
the local brokers have kind of
put on it.

840
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:59,320
You got RBC put NAV at 613
million, JP Morgan 1.4 billion.

841
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:05,920
So for for context, RBC reckon
EVN trade on 2.2 times NAV at 5

842
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:09,720
bucks a share and also at 5
bucks a share, JP Morgan placed

843
00:45:09,720 --> 00:45:13,720
that P NAV at 1.2 times.
So they go about it a bit

844
00:45:13,720 --> 00:45:16,840
differently.
Jeffries, they place 1.4 billion

845
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:22,400
as well and Jardin 940 million
on Mangari.

846
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,720
And yeah, came to hear what you
say, Trav on that one.

847
00:45:25,720 --> 00:45:29,080
I know they're sort of varying
kind of gold prices that have

848
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,560
been flushed through.
Exactly, that's the point,

849
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:32,880
right.
The bigger picture is like the

850
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,800
brokers, they're running a gold
price curve that tapers pretty

851
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,320
significantly lower in like real
terms over over time.

852
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,360
This always happens when a
commodity price rips N you know,

853
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,840
the, the analysts and the the
house price texts that kind of

854
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:47,160
play catch up.
And they're always very

855
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,720
reluctant to change the long
term, long term price estimate,

856
00:45:50,720 --> 00:45:53,640
which is like, you know, three
years and and longer in in the

857
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,120
models.
And when they when they kind of

858
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,440
revise the house gold curve,
maybe they'll change those near

859
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,040
term values, but they rarely
adjust those long term values,

860
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:05,920
which, if most brokers is still
between kind of US 1800 an ounce

861
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,440
and 2000 bucks an ounce for
gold.

862
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:13,120
But you know, gold bull market,
the seller of operations,

863
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,880
sometimes you get the the
opportunity to sell your project

864
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:17,960
at a kind of a Spot gold price
in the model.

865
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:22,040
And so while the while the
brokers, you know, say it's it's

866
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:26,120
worth that at Spot gold, you
can, you can kind of bet Mangari

867
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,960
is worth a heck more if you run
that Spot gold price through

868
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,480
versus whatever the NAB of the
the house deck is of those

869
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,560
investment banks.
If you Jake and you get an

870
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,080
unsolicited offer, which implies
a Spot gold price or higher, you

871
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,640
probably have a good think about
it just kind of given, given the

872
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,680
state of everything, I seriously
doubt that entertain anything

873
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,160
that's, you know, around some of
those broker values.

874
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,160
Remember it was only three years
ago that they paid Northern Star

875
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:53,560
$400 million for Northern Stars
51% share of East Kandana joint

876
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:57,080
venture and some Kandana OPS.
It's a 400 million acquisition

877
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:00,680
of of of some of the project
there $250 million expansion

878
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:04,520
CapEx on the mill, you know,
plus there's you know a bunch

879
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,320
else that kind of makes up the
Mangari project.

880
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,200
There's no one's going to be
getting a bargain here like the

881
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:12,240
some of those broken numbers
suggest.

882
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,720
Yeah, just just to a couple
numbers to it, people might be

883
00:47:15,720 --> 00:47:18,360
curious that RBC one they're
talking about flashing through

884
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:24,960
3800, Aussie next year, 3700,
the year after 3500, the year

885
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,040
after that the other.
Can you see the long, what's the

886
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:30,040
long term gold price assumption
though, 'cause that's that's

887
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,440
what really drives value, yeah.
Yeah, 100%.

888
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,640
It's it's not placed in this
this model that I'm looking at,

889
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:35,120
Yeah.
Yeah.

890
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,240
So in my opinion though of this
whole article, the most

891
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:43,720
interesting part is, is really
the focus on deal appetite from

892
00:47:43,720 --> 00:47:47,680
Seijin and and the news.
It sort of actually matched some

893
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:51,040
of the, the stuff I've been
hearing some, some of the mining

894
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,320
services guys in and around Cal
are busier than ever because of

895
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:59,160
serious capital Seijin via their
via Norton Goldfields, which is

896
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:00,800
their majority owned subsidiary
here in Australia.

897
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,400
What they're throwing at its
operations in town in

898
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,040
Kalgoorlie.
There's a, there's a few things

899
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:10,240
I can kind of theorise based on,
on what my Kalgoorlie Intel says

900
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,600
Zijin is up to.
We know they're actively

901
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,720
expanding their bin dually
operation from 5 million tonnes

902
00:48:15,720 --> 00:48:17,120
per annum to 8 million tonnes
per annum.

903
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:18,680
That's, that's pretty, pretty
substantial.

904
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,200
There's a, there's a lot of
activity at Zijin's Apache

905
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:25,560
project they call it, which is
kind of across the Kalgadi

906
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,520
Highway and it's effectively a,
a collection of like 5 or so

907
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:32,760
pits there, including including
be familiar to some, some people

908
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:37,120
can call it Crazy's old Navajo.
There's like 7 mile Hill and

909
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:38,440
there's there's some other pits
there.

910
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,640
I've circled them in red on this
satellite image.

911
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,600
So you can kind of see the area
I'm talking about.

912
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,400
It's just out of town there.
You can see the footprint.

913
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,840
It's actually bigger than the
Super pit, certainly not as

914
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:50,680
deep, but the footprints pretty
substantial.

915
00:48:50,720 --> 00:48:54,280
And you know, some of the
estimates I've heard there's

916
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,080
talk that there could be like 40
years mine life of a pretty

917
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,320
substantial operation, just that
Apache there.

918
00:48:59,960 --> 00:49:03,520
So what is what is the gin
currently operating in, in, in

919
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,880
WA?
There's been dually and

920
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,800
Paddington, right?
And we've touched on been dually

921
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,680
that's expanding.
Let's look at Paddington.

922
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,160
So some of the Intel I've heard
is Paddington has its issues at

923
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:14,640
the moment.
Word on the decline.

924
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:18,240
They ran the liners out too long
about 12 to 18 months ago.

925
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,640
And it is in quotation marks
bogged up with SPAC at one end.

926
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:23,280
What does that mean?
I don't know.

927
00:49:23,720 --> 00:49:28,360
You're the mining guy.
Ran the liners out but it's

928
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,720
bulged up with SPAC at 1.
Sounds like a processing thing.

929
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,920
Yeah.
Anyway, SPAC, so it's also

930
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:38,080
Paddington like it's, it's 39
years, it's been running for 39

931
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,600
years, right.
And so the concrete footings are

932
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,160
also kind of close to end of end
of life to there.

933
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:48,160
So I just, I just find Zijin's
activities in, in the gold

934
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,160
fields, they're they're
investing a lot of capital.

935
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:55,120
A lot, a lot of capital, yeah.
Whether they have a licence to,

936
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:59,400
to do acquisitions like TBA
because, yeah, there's a lot of

937
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,760
theories out there about what,
what Zijin might want to do, you

938
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,040
know, in terms of, you know, W
Australian gold consolidation

939
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,200
and maybe mangaka comes into it,
maybe maybe doesn't.

940
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:10,800
But that's the that's the
context.

941
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,360
And I think we just got to play
pretty close attention to Zijin

942
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:14,960
and maybe do some homework on
them.

943
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:19,120
I think because focused minerals
there just started a underground

944
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,360
near coolgati I think.
Yeah, as well.

945
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:23,040
Focus.
I mean, I've got the contract

946
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:24,320
there.
Focus they.

947
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,320
Yeah, that'd be Bonnie Vale from
memory.

948
00:50:26,720 --> 00:50:30,000
Yeah, they're bringing on that.
Yeah, they've never, they

949
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,160
haven't.
They're not making money focus.

950
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:36,160
And they they basically keep
alive from this shareholder loan

951
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,400
from Shandong who owns like I
think it's 70% of them, which is

952
00:50:40,720 --> 00:50:42,720
is very, very large that
shareholder loan.

953
00:50:42,720 --> 00:50:44,680
So there's not a great outlook
for equity.

954
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:46,600
But yeah, they are there.
You're right.

955
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:48,920
Yeah, people have tried to deal
with them forever and they

956
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:51,600
can't.
Yeah, very good, right?

957
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,960
Genesis Vault merger talks not
new.

958
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,720
Not new at all.
This was chucked in at the at

959
00:50:58,720 --> 00:51:01,720
the end of the article, so I
thought it might be interesting

960
00:51:01,720 --> 00:51:05,840
to see if you guys have formed
any new opinions of late.

961
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,120
I don't think we need to run
through too many of the the

962
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:09,560
numbers here.
It's all kind of

963
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,200
straightforward.
I guess the the.

964
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,800
The ones that kind of stand out
is EV of 1.8 billion for for

965
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:20,400
Vault and 2.6 billion for for
Genesis.

966
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,520
What, what do you guys kind of
do if you're if you're Rao?

967
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,160
Merge two things.
Ding, Ding, Ding for Allie.

968
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:29,000
Who's a she?
She owns both of them both the

969
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:32,400
article, the last the last line
in the article on data room,

970
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,040
which was the same article as
the previous story.

971
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,160
It said there were conversations
happening between the parties,

972
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,480
but they were called off off the
back of volts bad quarterly

973
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:42,680
performance.
Don't buy it.

974
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,560
I don't buy it.
What do you think, Maddie?

975
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:51,640
Oh.
They're obviously, I don't know,

976
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:59,440
I don't, but you'd have to be
waiting on some sort of capital

977
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,800
to be spent, maybe by Vault
before he takes them, get them

978
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,720
to do the toy for stripping or
an expansion or I don't know,

979
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:13,560
they look at waiting for him to
sell like Deflector and Sugar

980
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,240
Zone and get that out of the
portfolio to make it simpler.

981
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,920
It could be, it could be any, it
could be any number of things.

982
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:23,240
You know, I think the the
intentions are pretty clear it

983
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,920
it's going to happen sooner or
later, but there's there's so

984
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,720
many different things that can
put a spanner in the works and

985
00:52:29,720 --> 00:52:32,480
it just takes a bit more time.
And you know, we could be

986
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,360
talking about it in in quite a
while's time.

987
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,680
It's not to say that they don't
want to get it done.

988
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,320
I'd say I'd say they want the
vault price to go there.

989
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,320
I'd say they'd be arguing over
the merger ratio.

990
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,680
They want vaults price to be
lower and they want Genesis

991
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,360
price to be higher if you're on
the Genesis side and if that

992
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:50,640
would be very.
House on that.

993
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:52,320
The vault side want the opposite
but.

994
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,040
Yeah, they need to be.
They must be just arguing over a

995
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:57,400
merger ratio.
The synergies are, you know,

996
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,640
pretty damn obvious.
So all sides are motivated to do

997
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:02,080
the deal.
It's just a matter of price,

998
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,520
like you say, Maddie, and I just
think it's a matter of time.

999
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:06,280
My guess is sooner rather than
later.

1000
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:09,840
Got to be We've been saying that
for a while.

1001
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:12,520
Well, we're getting one day
closer.

1002
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,800
Yeah, no, my prediction, it was
like before the end of the year.

1003
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:17,360
We'll see.
Yeah, well, that's what I

1004
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,800
thought, Yeah.
Oh, jeez, time's running out.

1005
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,520
Last one.
Yandel resources.

1006
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:25,240
Ding Ding.
Ding, Ding, Ding for me.

1007
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:26,720
Yeah, foolishly.
JD.

1008
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:29,760
No, Sir.
Oh no, I would have been if I

1009
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,200
had cash, I would have been a
Ding Ding Ding as well.

1010
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:35,200
Like this could be the next WA1.
Especially looking at the

1011
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:38,960
register, which is all the WA
one register now.

1012
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,080
So because this was, I guess it
was one of the and could be

1013
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:44,680
still who knows, but one of the
potential up and Comer bloody

1014
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:48,280
gold discoveries in WA Had a bit
of in a bit of a snag today,

1015
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:52,760
down 40%, was down over 50%
early on because had a lot of

1016
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:57,440
hype around their discovery.
How you'd say 78 metres at 1.2

1017
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:00,520
grammes per tonne which ended in
mineralisation.

1018
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:01,880
So that was obviously looking
good.

1019
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:07,080
Got up to around $160.00 market
cap and when we chatted about it

1020
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:09,480
before I did have one dumb ass
comment to make.

1021
00:54:09,720 --> 00:54:14,040
I will play it I no GA but I
wonder if they've tested

1022
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:16,440
drilling it the other way And
just to double check they

1023
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:20,080
weren't drilling through the
whole vein and the dips go the

1024
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:21,600
right way.
I assume they know which way

1025
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,880
it's dipping in those areas, but
it's like it's a big thick

1026
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:26,880
intersection.
Genius.

1027
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,360
Well, there we go.
That's appeared exactly what

1028
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:31,760
fuck had happened, unfortunately
for them.

1029
00:54:32,720 --> 00:54:36,920
So they they did.
They scissored it from I guess

1030
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:40,200
the opposite dip and it came up
35 metres at one grammes a

1031
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,200
tonne.
They did extend the other one so

1032
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:45,520
down to 107 metres at one gramme
a tonne.

1033
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:49,360
So yeah, unfortunately the
initial hole was drilling pretty

1034
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:51,760
well along the vine.
So because it would have been

1035
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:55,080
sensational if it was true
width, but not over yet because

1036
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:59,080
you look at it like it mightn't
be the as good as the initial

1037
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:02,440
height, but it's still you know,
3030 metres at one gramme

1038
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:04,440
looking to me mostly all the way
to the surface.

1039
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:08,960
So that's pretty bloody mindable
these days in for like right

1040
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,600
open pits.
I've heard the geology out there

1041
00:55:11,720 --> 00:55:15,760
that way is pretty good.
Bloody recoveries from what I've

1042
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:19,000
been told.
So hopefully they can continue

1043
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,720
drilling it and prove up
something of scale and mind

1044
00:55:21,720 --> 00:55:23,760
ability.
So the unfortunate joys of

1045
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,880
exploration and excitement over
1 hole.

1046
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,400
So hoping that it gets a bit of
strike about it.

1047
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,240
So yeah, bit of volatility on
the market today.

1048
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:33,600
Holy snapping duck shit.
Did you go on?

1049
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:35,800
Did you see?
Fuck, I don't know what's going

1050
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:40,600
on, but Catalyst today, No, it
opened at like 320, has just

1051
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,640
been on a linear decline all
day.

1052
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,760
Not like a rapid price movement
and down 20%.

1053
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:49,840
That's strange.
Yeah, very strange.

1054
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:53,000
I don't know if I don't know
what it is right now as we speak

1055
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,680
or it's considering the market
closed two hours ago I think.

1056
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,000
It's more sellers and buyers.
Mate, but mate, the money's

1057
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,440
going elsewhere.
The money's going elsewhere.

1058
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,080
But yeah, it was, it was weird.
It wasn't a there's obviously

1059
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,520
someone selling down a shit load
of it or I don't know.

1060
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:12,120
Usually if there's a information
that is out there that isn't

1061
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,120
public, it's a very rapid
decline.

1062
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:19,320
But this was just great.
Yeah, it was a very outlier flow

1063
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:23,320
of funds, J So, yeah.
So that was a very interesting

1064
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,560
one.
Just as interesting as mineral

1065
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:27,160
mining services.
Very interesting.

1066
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,880
Fuck, they're interested.
Go Benny Broom on the board of

1067
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:31,920
Orrman.
He's funny.

1068
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,480
But everyone that is either a
sponsor or a podcast guest,

1069
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:37,920
whether you're a metallurgist or
anyone you want to get on a

1070
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,160
board, come and see us.
Look at what happened to Ben

1071
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:43,440
Broome then.
Bloody grounded construction

1072
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:48,920
group got G dots and spots all
across WA cross boundary energy.

1073
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:51,400
Odd.
I'll tell you a funny story.

1074
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:55,720
It was MC the YP event for minor
club the other day.

1075
00:56:55,720 --> 00:57:02,000
She's one of the panellists
started talking about the power

1076
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,160
solutions for Delta lithium and
all that.

1077
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,240
I'm like, hey Timmy Taylors in
the crowd mate.

1078
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:09,600
Make sure you hit him up.
Bit of promo for CBE that are

1079
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:14,440
weeping and our great friends at
Sandvik Ground Sports CR

1080
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:18,720
insurance K drill Dysat Roo
Money Miners.

1081
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,480
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

1082
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:25,560
general nature only and does not
take into account the

1083
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:29,160
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1084
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,200
person.
Before making any investment

1085
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,240
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1086
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:37,400
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1087
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:39,560
financial situation and needs.