Biggest Mining stories of 2024 – AFR’s Peter Ker

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Yeah, apparent love for the IFR
continues because we've got

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another one.
Our love for Pete.

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We're not sponsored vibe or
anything, just to be clear.

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But like Mr Peter Ker, come back
for another 2024 recap since the

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2020 trade resources one went so
well and Anthony McDonald has

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just kindly not turned up or got
him.

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He's got, I'm off him.
People are going to think

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there's some media mega merger
happening though.

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This is like a data room and AFR
people are just coming in and.

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Making you said it was a
situation.

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Lifts the value it's.
All good.

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We're already trading at a
premium.

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We'll get the Australian on next
week.

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Yeah, better get Brad Thompson
in just a bit of, you know,

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competition.
Yeah, yeah, on that.

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We, we chewed through all the
honey he gave us last year.

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So we, we need some boys.
As we said, we, I think the one

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we did with Mr Jenny Hewitt last
week was more probably policy,

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politics, energy focus.
But we're really going to hone

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in on the resources today, which
is Mr Kerr's sweet spot.

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I assume it still is Peter.
Well, you know, I'll let your

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listeners be the judge.
Yes, How has how has your year

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been as a bloody the top
resource journal in Australia,

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I've given you that title.
Oh, thanks.

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I'll run with it.
Look, it was, I'm going to admit

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I was surprised by BHP Angler.
That's obviously the biggest

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thing in the room when we talk
about 2024.

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And in hindsight, maybe I
shouldn't have been surprised,

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but I sort of give myself an out
for being surprised because I in

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hindsight, I don't think it was
a great move.

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I think they they possibly
played it wrong.

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I thought it was a bit ugly.
I thought it was unwieldy, a bit

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complicated, full points to them
for being agile and moving when

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they thought they saw a moment
of weakness.

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But I suspect, you know, I
suspect in the year or two ahead

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we might see that situation get
a lot more simplified and

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perhaps an easier deal.
So that, yeah, I guess that

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stands out for me as the biggest
thing in the year.

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And of course, just the
continuation of this battery

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metal slump, you know, I think
coming into January, we all knew

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it was probably going to be a
tough year for this sector in

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Lyon Town and Nickel W, we're
going to be the the bellwethers,

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if you like, of that downturn.
I'm surprised that Nickel W got

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shut.
I thought a federal government

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with a well publicised mandate
and policy to have domestic

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onshore processing would have
found a way to throw enough

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money at BHP to keep that open,
particularly given WA

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electorates are so important at
the next federal election.

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So I'm surprised that didn't
happen.

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And I don't think it was through
any lack of trying by the

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federal government either.
I think BHP sort of had had had

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enough really.
So yeah, surprises all around.

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And I guess I'm still surprised
today, now that Lion Town shares

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are, you know, in the $0.60
range depending on which day

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your listeners listen to this
podcast.

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I don't know if this time last
year it was worth $3 a share to

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Gina.
Why isn't it worth $0.60 today?

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So yeah, surprises all around.
What about you guys?

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Yeah, I think the they're all of
them.

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The other the other big
conversation point I'm keen to

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unpack with you, Pete, is
something that the, you know,

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the the AFR colleagues of yours
and self as well have covered in

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great detail everything that's
happened, corporate governance

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related with with min rays being
a focus.

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But we've seen stories break
just sort of last week on, on

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Andrew Forrest and you know, the
exact turnover at at Fortescue,

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I think.
So I think that's that's kind of

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the other one that that really
grabs my attention is big, big

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stories for for 2024.
That was pretty consistent,

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wasn't it?
The, the when did that?

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That was probably the year
before, wasn't it?

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Like when we first started.
Twiggy had a yeah, a bit of a a

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governance moment over 12 months
ago.

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I remember Pete, you saying on
last year's podcast that, you

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know, he kind of comes out
evicted because Fortescue shares

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were at an all time high at the
back end of the year.

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I think they're down like 3538%
since then now as iron was kind

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of slumped.
It's not really too much

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governance related, but yeah.
Is he a winner or a loser this

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year?
Probably a bit of a loser I

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reckon, because he's had to
concede some grand on this

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hydrogen clean energy pivot.
Of course, Andrew Forrest never

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concedes entirely, but you know,
the key thing he conceded was

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we're not going to have
15,000,000 tonnes of green

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hydrogen by 20-30.
I mean, his investors were

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probably happy to hear that.
That probably sounded like, you

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know, he was still clinging on
to rationality rather than just,

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you know, delivering a target
for the sake of delivering a

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target.
But I think that took some paint

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off.
I mean, the whole hydrogen

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sector is just in a world of
pain, right?

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Like up in, you know, the
northwest of WABP is still

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clinging to this idea that
they're going to do the

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Australian renewable energy hub,
AERH, this vast thing up north

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of the Pilbara.
They've sort of considered it's

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not going to be a hydrogen
export thing.

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They're trying to sell the power
to the Pilbara miners.

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The Pilbara miners, I gather,
don't really feel like they need

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it or want it.
Yeah, it's it's.

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Big offshore wind turbines up in
the Pilbara that they well

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proposed sites for offshore
turbines with a view to

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potentially electrify the
Pilbara.

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There's no grid in the Pilbara,
you know, like you guys

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inviting, isn't it?
Yeah.

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And and it's 5:00 and it's 500
KS from the mines and mines have

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no shortage of land like new
themselves.

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But yeah, on.
Forest is very big.

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Like you think of the pill brews
this pocket.

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Yeah, but it's fucking huge.
Yeah, it is very big.

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Yeah, that's right.
I've got a couple others that

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actually come to mind. 1 you did
a great piece on just on Friday,

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Mcfillimy's and you know
everything that relates to that.

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That was a an interesting deep
dive you did on Friday.

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Their paid and just to tie onto
the the lithium sort of piece as

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well, Rio Tinto, they have made
a massive bet contrary to every

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other, you know, pier major
minor on lithium.

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They've spent, you know, north
of 15 billion Aussie dollars

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over the past couple years now
on on lithium, assuming the

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arcadium deal goes through.
And you know, that that to me is

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Yakovsasans reign will be
measured against how that

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performs, you know, looking back
5-10 years, because that is,

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that is a big, big bet to make.
And they're the sort of things

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that I think the CEO gets
measured on because that makes,

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you know, more, more weight than
any other decision that they

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might have throughout a, you
know, 4-5 year standard CEO

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reign at A, at a major mining
company.

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And not not just lithium,
Lithium brine, DLA What the?

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Exactly, Matt.
It's not just a bet on a

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commodity, is it?
It's a bet on DLE and even a new

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type of DLE.
Like I gather it's a sort of

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different type of resin that has
been developed for that

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particular geology 1.
That works.

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Is, is it still geology if it's
groundwater?

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I suppose it is hydrogeology.
Hydrogeology, yeah.

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So it's a huge bet, but so and
you're right, we will have to

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watch that over the next five
years or so and it will become

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quite defining for Jakob I think
in the short term and I'm pretty

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sure you guys observed this on
your show a few times in the

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short term that deal has been
sentiment negative for WA

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lithium miners.
It really reiterated this idea

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that Brine's, which is sort of
the idea that everyone had sort

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of eight years ago, which is
that brine's are going to be the

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low cost leaders and WA
spodumain would be your higher

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cost opportunistic swing supply.
And over this eight year period,

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we sort of at times drifted away
from that idea, whether it was

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because hydroxide was going to
work really well for spodumain

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or whether it was because of
sovereign risk in South America.

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So who knows what's going to
happen.

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But right now it does look like
the world is saying bronze is

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going to be king in lithium.
And I mean Exxon Mobil coming

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into this sector, I mean, how,
how much dollars have they got

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to spend?
I looked at their CapEx last

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year last week, sorry, and
they're talking about 33 billion

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US per year of CapEx into oil
and gas.

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Like they have so much money to
spend at this.

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So right now it's sort of
Christmas 2024, it looks like

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lithium supply is going to be
really strong in future from the

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bronze.
And yeah, I it's, it's, it's,

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it's easy to be a bit
pessimistic for Spodomain, but I

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also think one of the most
interesting presentations I saw

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this year on lithium was from
Ivan Vella at IGO, where he came

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out with that strategy update.
And he basically, I guess his

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central theme for the next
decade was that lithium's huge

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roller coaster, the ups and
downs, the peaks and troughs

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would continue for at least a
decade whilst the industry was

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immature.
And I think his thesis at the

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time was that you just need to
design a business in the medium

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term that can, that can deal
with that, you know, that can

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harvest at the highs but also
survive the lows and not get

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caught in between, you know,
with too much debt in the low

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moments.
So based on the Ivan Valour view

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of the world, there will be a
lithium boom 3.0 that will work

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for spodromain too.
And maybe that's the moment min

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res get their chance to break
off lithium.

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I don't know.
Is that, is that still a thing

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people talk about in Perth?
Oh God, who knows, because do

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you think the real thing like is
it also we talked about Brian

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DLA, but is it also a bet on
lithium carbonite and which is

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obviously going to be down like
shithouse for what?

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The infrastructure that's in
place in Australia for

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downstream hydroxide and shit
for nickel as well, because it

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sounds like they're betting on
carbonate, which is what?

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Because the whole thing changed
once LFP, the rise of the LFPS

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which take carbonate instead of
hydroxide.

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And this is looking like maybe
that's obviously going to be

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shit for nickel, shit for
hydroxide because Ray are

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betting big on carbonate
effectively.

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Yeah, you're right.
That is part of the bet,

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although I don't see too many
analysts who talk about it as

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all one or the other.
You know, there'll probably be a

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bit of space for both.
It's got to be a bit of

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everything.
Yeah, I think that's right.

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And who knows what's the the
unknown unknown out there,

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right?
Like there could be some, some

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new version of LFP that comes
along that has some totally

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different mix and, you know,
needs bloody niobium or

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something.
Who knows.

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So yeah, I guess that's, that's
the other risk that Jakob's

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taking is technology risk,
right.

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Like it's a fast moving, fast
changing sector.

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What's, what's the battery
chemistry going to be in eight

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years time possibly different to
today?

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Well.
Look how quick it changed what

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we thought was going to be the
future, like just in the last

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year or two like 2 years
effectively.

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So who bloody knows?
We could have, could have little

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nuclear bloody capsules, uranium
capsules to Chuck in them soon

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like.
A Yeah, maybe they'd be the

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Juris, yeah, or the Jerusalem
AAA's.

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I mean, don't rule them out.
So, so Rio, did I get a a pass

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mark from you this year for
being, you know, bold and

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opportunistic or are you, are
you reserved on?

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They probably do, yeah, Yeah.
I don't think they struck out.

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It's probably a longer term bet,
isn't it?

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I'm trying to think back, did
they add any copper to their

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business this year?
Well, they they, I think they

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made official FID on Simandu as
well, which is well that.

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Was the year before that was
December last year, but yeah.

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Yeah, OK.
So.

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I guess OT is sort of ramping up
and, you know, they're finally

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getting there, but it's been
long and painful.

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00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,560
And, you know, we've we've sort
of talked in the past about this

223
00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:06,200
entree situation, which remains
unresolved and needs to be

224
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,080
unresolved.
And for your listeners who

225
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,680
aren't familiar with that entree
are a tiny little company who

226
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,120
have a minority interest in some
of the tenements that Rio needs

227
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:19,360
to mine relatively soon at
Ayatoll go in Mongolia and he's

228
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:20,920
kind of becoming the mouse that
roared.

229
00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,280
They, you know, they've waited a
long time for this moment, but

230
00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:28,520
they are getting their moment of
what's it called leverage.

231
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:33,400
Yeah.
So like it's not a, it's a, it's

232
00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:38,440
a an RL dependent like section
of the ore body, isn't it?

233
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,600
That's right.
So Rio has complete control, if

234
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,480
you like, in the middle and at
both the sort of South, what

235
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,480
would you say southwestern and I
think Northeastern end, there

236
00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:52,120
are tenements that Rio does not
100% control.

237
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,160
And the ones in question for
entree and for the mine plan in

238
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,880
the near term are at the
northeastern end.

239
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:04,240
And so Rio can't move into those
tenements and mine them until

240
00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,480
they strike a deal with entree.
But there's this complication

241
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,560
with the Mongolian government as
there always is in Mongolia.

242
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,280
And this I, I think part of the
hold up and I could be wrong,

243
00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,560
but I gather it's something to
do with at what point does the

244
00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:19,560
Mongolian government take their
cut?

245
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:25,560
Do they take a cut of the entree
sort of share of the tenements,

246
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,920
you know, before the deal is
done to incorporate that into

247
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,520
the mine or do they wait for the
deal to be done and then uplift?

248
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,120
I think, I think there's a bit
of back and forth about the

249
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,880
timing there.
Another another big theme, oh

250
00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:45,080
the one of the I guess the big
2024 things that really hit us

251
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,040
over here.
Curry probably not as much over

252
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:51,400
there was Jesus Christ, the MMS
polo shirts in West Perth,

253
00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,080
mineral mining services, they
are everywhere.

254
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:59,480
The rise of them that was that
was pretty much like 100 X share

255
00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,440
price.
Big, big theme of the year is

256
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,840
just the entire emergence,
growth and domination of them as

257
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:09,760
a, you know, a fully integrated
turnkey mining services open pit

258
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,160
kind of contractor, but with the
technical services expertise to

259
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,280
go with it.
Did did they take over a mining

260
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,480
consultant or something like is
that all?

261
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,080
Organic growth, mate, was it?
Yeah.

262
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:23,000
I couldn't believe it.
Like as the to to get the open

263
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,840
pit mining services and then
just bolt on the tech services.

264
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,160
Yeah, that's why not via M and I
yeah, which was unbelievable.

265
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,080
It's like, it's like they've
just, yeah, it's like they took

266
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:34,880
over Entech or something, but
they didn't.

267
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,400
Mate, and like you were saying,
Kerry, like the the timelines to

268
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,560
to get into production are
blowing out.

269
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,080
That's a theme.
But MMS with the tech services

270
00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,200
fast track it.
Yeah, and then they mine it.

271
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,600
Yeah, that was.
In 2024 for that oh.

272
00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,640
Huge mate, huge 2020. 4 You
asked the question, Trev, what

273
00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,080
do you, what do you rate the
sort of performance?

274
00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,200
And, and I'm, I'm struggling to
think of something higher than

275
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,800
an A, you know, a plus plus
like, yeah, they just knocked it

276
00:14:57,800 --> 00:14:58,120
at the.
Park.

277
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,200
Well, if one was the height,
she'd have to go 0.

278
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,920
That's why that's all mine is 1.
Like it just it's off the scale.

279
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,160
Yeah, it's like, it's like
Infinity plus one.

280
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,680
I'm kind of scared what 2025
could look like when you're

281
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,600
growing that fast.
Yeah, Yeah.

282
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:17,680
I think it's just continue the
upward trajectory of MMS and go

283
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,680
MMS and Merry Christmas to the
MMS tape.

284
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,000
Go MMS.
Yeah, that's a logical kind of

285
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:28,120
yeah catalyst type of
opportunities out there at the

286
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,720
moment.
The other thing that hit, you

287
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,040
know, Ray had also hit BHP was
just this observation of of

288
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,720
declining right of the the pill
Ryan or products like what

289
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,120
what's your rate of what's going
on in the Pilgrim?

290
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,640
Why's like why are they now kind
of, you know, putting out lower,

291
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,880
lower grade product to market?
So I guess, I mean, you would

292
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,720
have heard the miners talk about
some of the big long term

293
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,360
overarching reasons why that's
happening, which is just, you

294
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,000
know, the best deposits have
been picked over and so forth

295
00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,480
getting, you know, and then
starting to go down into the

296
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,280
water table and get the less
attractive stuff.

297
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,160
But heritage is a big part of
this as well, right?

298
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,960
Like all the iron ore mining
projects that we see going

299
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,840
through the approvals phase, you
know, through the WA or the

300
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,960
federal regulators, most of them
are coming back with an update

301
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:21,120
to say the envelope size of this
development is reduced by 10%,

302
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:26,040
Fourteen percent, 21%.
We've seen Hancock do it.

303
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,400
We've seen Rio do it, we've seen
Fortescue do it.

304
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:32,320
And that is because these mining
companies are putting in a lot

305
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,280
more time and having much more
conversations with their

306
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,920
traditional owners, the native
title custodians in those parts

307
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:43,160
of the world and perhaps
listening to them more and are

308
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:48,520
now carving out sections.
And so, so that really gives you

309
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,680
a, a net reduction anyway.
But I suspect a lot of these

310
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,480
sections are well, in some cases
they have been the high grade

311
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,840
section of resources.
This is why Fortescue are only

312
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,920
doing or are doing much less of
that W Pilbara Finds product

313
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,680
than they promised.
So W Pilbara Finds was going to

314
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,160
be Fortescue's higher grade
hematite product.

315
00:17:09,319 --> 00:17:11,800
It was going to be more than 60%
iron.

316
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,359
They launched it probably 5-6
years ago and I think it was

317
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,160
supposed to get up to something
like 1/4 of their hematite

318
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:22,480
volumes by now still running
down maybe like 9% or something.

319
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,440
And that's because a whole bunch
of the bits they planned to mine

320
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,040
are now ruled out on the
Heritage grounds.

321
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,760
So So even though, and this is a
point we tried to make around

322
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:37,360
Mcfillimy's, even though the WA
state law is pretty much

323
00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:40,680
identical today to what it was
when Juke and Gorge happened,

324
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,480
and federal laws have not
changed yet either, the world

325
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,640
has changed.
Like like a heritage is having a

326
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,080
much bigger impact on mining
than it was at Chuck and Gorge,

327
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,160
which just tells you how much
things can change without the

328
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:56,920
politicians having to make a new
law.

329
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,640
Yeah, the miners are completely
unwilling to to do the Section

330
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,760
18 kind of pathway whatsoever.
It's completely unpalatable.

331
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,600
And then on on the flip side,
you know, we're hearing that

332
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,320
that heritage is often used as a
negotiating tool to actually get

333
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,600
a higher royalty on the native
title pace.

334
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,840
So yeah, it seems it seems
problematic from a permitting

335
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,320
timelines cost efficiency
perspective for the miners.

336
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:25,600
And a section 10 can just arrive
at any moment, even after you've

337
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,880
done the full heritage
assessment.

338
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,160
Well, the most, the most
interesting thing for me out of

339
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:35,280
Mcphillimmies was this idea that
you had two different groups of

340
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,600
Indigenous people who had
different views on heritage in

341
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,240
the local area.
And we saw the NSW government

342
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,840
saying this group over here,
they are the people who have the

343
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,720
right to to say what is heritage
and what's not.

344
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,280
And the Federal department took
these people over here and their

345
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,040
view of heritage.
And Tanya Plibersek went to the

346
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,840
Minerals Council conference in
Canberra in September and said

347
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,000
something really interesting.
She stood up and basically said

348
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,000
we can't have this situation
where we don't know who are the

349
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,240
people with the right to speak
for country effectively, saying

350
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,000
we need to clear this up.
We need to have a system where

351
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,520
everybody knows and agrees on
which Indigenous group are in

352
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,000
charge effectively of heritage
in that area.

353
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,120
And she has a legislative
reform.

354
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,360
But guess what, that legislative
reform has not even yet been

355
00:19:26,360 --> 00:19:30,160
introduced to the parliament.
We have an absolute maximum of

356
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,960
five months left in the life of
this parliament.

357
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,440
And increasingly people think
we're going to have an early

358
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,960
election, partly because of the
budget is starting to look a bit

359
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:41,160
bad.
And people now think, well,

360
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,000
perhaps you wouldn't want to go
to a budget in early May,

361
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:49,880
announce a deficit, and then go
to the polls in late May, which

362
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,000
was the default setting not so
long ago.

363
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,520
So people now start to wonder,
does sort of April 13th start to

364
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,000
become a viable date for an
election or late March?

365
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:07,240
So, so plebiscite changes to
clarify this aspect of

366
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,760
Indigenous relations have very
little chance of getting through

367
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,120
parliament.
And you know, the polling

368
00:20:13,120 --> 00:20:15,280
suggests we're going to have a
new parliament, a new government

369
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,840
after the next election.
So it's probably not going to

370
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,720
get resolved.
It's probably going to continue

371
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,760
being quite confusing.
How do you think the Mcfillimmys

372
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,680
can?
I know they talked about

373
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,560
overturning it immediately.
The Liberal government, is it as

374
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,400
simple as that if they did get
elected?

375
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:34,760
I gather it is.
They're up.

376
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,080
That's interesting.
I don't, I don't gather that

377
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,280
it's going to be too hard
legislatively.

378
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,360
Yeah, from from a community
perspective, I'm not sure.

379
00:20:43,360 --> 00:20:45,960
I haven't been up there to sort
of take the temperature of it

380
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,520
first hand.
But yeah, I don't think there's

381
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,080
any huge barriers to them, you
know, pushing the button and

382
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,320
they would have a NSW Labour
government cheering them on

383
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,240
which would which would help the
political task.

384
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,000
Yeah, I think there was an it's
probably you reflect on was that

385
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,320
probably the first big native
title thing this year?

386
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,080
That was definitely the biggest.
But then I know the Bellevue one

387
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,960
come not long after that.
And it just felt like there was

388
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:15,880
that bit of a role on with
precedent becoming a part of the

389
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,360
as you said, the lot leverage
lot to say, oh, they did it.

390
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,200
We'll we'll Chuck in a section
10 here.

391
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,160
I think these.
I might be wrong, but I think

392
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,080
the Bellevue one actually
happened before but wasn't, but

393
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,560
wasn't widely sort of
publicised.

394
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,000
And then it what happened at
Philomy's Mcphillomy's sort of

395
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,760
breathed life into this debate
across the country.

396
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,600
I might be wrong, but there was
another another article on it in

397
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,080
the West today actually talking
about Bellevue and the the

398
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,440
indefinite nature of of it,
which is.

399
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,560
Which is just obviously a
section.

400
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:50,160
I think it's this southern belle
section.

401
00:21:50,360 --> 00:21:53,080
Yeah, near, near the lake.
Yeah, yeah.

402
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,680
So it's not the mine.
Well, it's the yeah, it's, but

403
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,120
it is part of the future mine
plan, just to clarify.

404
00:21:58,360 --> 00:22:04,240
On the on the on the political
front 8 like it also looks like

405
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,920
an increasing proposition that
the Senate will still be, you

406
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,920
know, a difficult thing to
actually get legislation passed

407
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,160
as well.
So even if you have a change in

408
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,000
government or return of
government, like you might have,

409
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,840
you know, just more stalemate
and actually, yeah, like on the

410
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,600
policy front to, to, to, to
streamline some of these things

411
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,560
which are clearly impacting the
street as well.

412
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,440
Yeah, that's right.
And of course the WA state

413
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,040
election as well.
So it, it sounds like, you know,

414
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,560
this WA Labour government who
wanted, you know, passionately

415
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:39,040
four years ago to get rid of the
indigenous, well, the, the

416
00:22:39,120 --> 00:22:41,920
Aboriginal Heritage Act, I think
it's called of 1972, you know,

417
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,120
around the time of Duke and
Gorge, there was almost

418
00:22:44,120 --> 00:22:46,760
bipartisan support like across
the industry and across

419
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,480
government to do that.
Of course, famously it came in

420
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,400
last year in 2023, repealed what
two months later or something.

421
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,000
And it feels, it sounds from
this distance over here in

422
00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:01,280
Melbourne, it sounds like that's
just disappeared as an issue in

423
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,320
the WA state political arena.
Is that right?

424
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,880
Well, that was the the start of
this year when the the heritage

425
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,920
things were gonna come in where
like pretty much every explorer,

426
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,520
every farmer every had to get
heritage surveys a few months

427
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,960
ago.
I think I think that was around.

428
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,760
July 1, it was gonna be.
Yeah, around the new financial

429
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,320
year in 23.
Yeah, and then they, but then

430
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,320
they backflipped on it.
Yeah, that's just hasn't been

431
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,480
spoken about again.
I.

432
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,960
Think it got kicked down the you
can't get kicked down the road a

433
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,240
little bit.
But I do think the government,

434
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,240
like the state government here
is, yeah, under, under Roger

435
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,160
Cook is just like a lot more
receptive to, to industry input.

436
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,960
So there's like, like less of a
fear of its impact industry.

437
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,280
Yeah, so maybe as the Basil's
impulse on the show, what's?

438
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,520
Oh God, I'm not sure I think
that that'd be open to anything

439
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,160
because they've got to win back
like 90% of the seats or

440
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,880
something like Native Bloody the
biggest swing in history.

441
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:02,000
I know it's, yeah, it'll take
them a few elections to sort of

442
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,480
get the swing back in their way
because it is that what have

443
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:06,720
they got four seats or
something?

444
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,120
I don't know.
They've got bugger all seats.

445
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,880
I mean, I mean, going hand in
hand with permitting is the the

446
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,400
environmental laws, which again
were big, big talking points

447
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,640
across across the state and
across the country.

448
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,400
And I think the the flashpoint
was the massive write down that

449
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,920
S 32 did at Worsley.
And, you know, there was an

450
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:32,320
implicit threat that this would
cost, I think 1700 odd, odd jobs

451
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,480
and, you know, because they
couldn't mine essentially what

452
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,440
they wanted to mine.
And just on Friday or perhaps

453
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:44,080
Thursday last week, we saw a bit
of a changing in the stance and

454
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,400
the WA government and Sat 32
will be able to to mine what

455
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,080
they wanted to sort of mine.
And yeah, I remember just

456
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,640
chatting with people at Diggers
and this was this was one of the

457
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,240
biggest topics with investors
and companies that that kept

458
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,640
coming up.
And, you know, blowing out

459
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,800
permitting just blows out the
economics for these these

460
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,280
projects.
And I'm not sure if we sort of

461
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,400
find a middle ground.
It does seem like the, the WA

462
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,120
government today credit has sort
of seen that there needs to be a

463
00:25:13,120 --> 00:25:16,840
sort of, you know, business and
environmental sort of middle

464
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,880
ground that that works for
everyone.

465
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,920
But that that was a big talking
point.

466
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,280
I remember Diggers and everyone
was sort of every second

467
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,400
conversation it it kind of came
up.

468
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,560
So I'm not, I'm not sure how
much of that you got over in in

469
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,440
Melbourne, Pete, but yeah.
There was a bit, yeah, it it did

470
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,320
register.
And I think behind the scenes

471
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,240
the big thing that changed
between say what was it roughly

472
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,880
May when S 32 came out and said
Worsley's, you know, in trouble

473
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,360
if if things stay as the WAEPA
proposes.

474
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,560
And I think last week when S
when basically Worsley got the

475
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,760
green light.
What really changed in that

476
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,600
period was that the WA
government referred emissions

477
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:59,600
policy to the feds.
And so I think South 32, there

478
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,800
was many things in that approval
at the start of the year that

479
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,440
they didn't like, but 90% of it
was about emissions.

480
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,760
And they felt like the WA
government through the EPA were

481
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,080
taking a more aggressive stance
on carbon emissions than the

482
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,000
federal safeguards mechanism
policy was.

483
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,840
And the argument was can we just
operate under the national

484
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,320
scheme?
And so it looks like that is,

485
00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:25,680
that's what's going to happen
now.

486
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,200
You know, the, the federal
scheme's not entirely easy.

487
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:34,200
You know, it's, I think from
memory for most facilities it's

488
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:41,520
43% reduction by 20-30, you
know, going down sort of in 4.9%

489
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,800
to 5% increments per year.
And some industries have had a

490
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,480
bit of a, you know, a softer
run.

491
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,320
I think the aluminium smelters
and aluminium refineries, pardon

492
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:53,000
me, I think they get a less than
4% reduction per year.

493
00:26:53,120 --> 00:26:55,480
And this is scope one and scope
2.

494
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,200
Right, correct.
Not including scope 3, S 32's

495
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,800
qualm, from my memory was the
inclusion of scope three Yeah,

496
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:06,160
in yeah, yeah, wow.
In that process.

497
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,520
Yeah.
So, so it's interesting, isn't

498
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,040
it?
So the, so you will often hear

499
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,920
from minors, you go to somewhere
like Tiggers and you'll hear

500
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,480
minors talk about how it's just
getting harder all the time

501
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,040
because of emissions policy,
because of nature, positive

502
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,960
biodiversity, heritage.
And I'm not, I'm not here to say

503
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,720
they're wrong.
But I do think every now and

504
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,680
then the industry needs to
remember, and your audience

505
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:35,160
should remember that in the past
few years, the mining industry

506
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,960
and the farming industry got the
new WA Heritage Act repealed

507
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,800
this year.
They got pleiber sex, nature

508
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,600
positive bill smashed into bits
into 3 tranches.

509
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:46,960
And a lot of the hardest stuff's
going to go.

510
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,400
We've we've seen things like
this happen where AWA government

511
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,440
sort of stance on emissions gets
axed and they can now operate

512
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,560
under the federal thing.
So I'm not saying that that any

513
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,400
particular type is right or
wrong, but I think the industry

514
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,400
needs to remember that it is
actually having some wins as

515
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,560
well now and then.
And you know, for the public

516
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,000
reputation of the industry, I
think has has improved so much

517
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,400
compared to if I think about
covering this sector sort of

518
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,200
2011, 2012, 2013.
In a city like Melbourne, you'd

519
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,320
go to the movies and the
Minerals Council would have some

520
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,680
add on at the start and people
would just basically Boo.

521
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,160
Like the the reputation was so
bad after the after the industry

522
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,640
killed the mining tax and
effectively killed the carbon

523
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:34,680
tax and that it's gradually been
repaired a bit.

524
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,760
Like, you know, I don't think
mining companies are ever going

525
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,240
to get a ticket type parade
through, you know, the inner

526
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,200
north of Melbourne.
But it has changed and

527
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,760
particularly with the electric
vehicle kind of revolution, like

528
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,760
I think even in places like
these people now accept that

529
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,480
critical minerals, battery
minerals are sort of a positive

530
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,120
thing directionally for the
environment.

531
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,440
And so I think the mining
companies just need to remember

532
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:06,720
not to not to cry or be careful
how much you complain and cry

533
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,280
because the mining industry is
definitely getting some wins.

534
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,040
Yeah, that puts it, that puts it
in in great perspective.

535
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,160
And it's, you know, it's hard to
often zoom out at the time when

536
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,920
you're so engrossed in in the
story of one particular issue,

537
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,480
see the the direction in which
the industry is kind of kind of

538
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,760
headed.
Carrie, what did you what did

539
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:31,320
you think of the release of Get
Wet's two and a half million

540
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,360
bladder this year?
Look, it was.

541
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,120
I'm going to admit I was
surprised.

542
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,760
Yeah, on Ally it was, it was
massive.

543
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,720
It was massive.
What the the the size of the

544
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,480
bladder was directly
proportional to how big of news

545
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,800
it was.
Big news in the industry big

546
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,880
mate.
Like 2024 in review for for get

547
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,120
wet.
That's like literally saturated

548
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,720
the mining industry.
Could fit the perfect word for

549
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,800
that trap.
I think they've they've they've

550
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,680
got to change their company name
from get wet just to wet because

551
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,640
they've like they've taken the
next step.

552
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,040
They are just wet.
They are staying wet and they're

553
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:13,480
just going to keep bloody as as
as in on the website, they're

554
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,880
kind of keep this country moist.
Water has been one of those

555
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:18,960
reoccurring themes in the
industry, Maddie, this year.

556
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,240
We've spoken about it all the
time and these guys are just

557
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:22,600
solving problems for the
industry, aren't they?

558
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:23,800
Oh.
Mate the most.

559
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,840
Flexible solution you could have
to solve the problem.

560
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,160
And they just do it all for you
are.

561
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,040
We putting a 3,000,000 litre
bladder out of the question, Are

562
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,480
we going to say 3 million I.
Wouldn't put anything out of the

563
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,680
question with these guys.
I I wouldn't be surprised if we

564
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:43,560
say 3,000,000 litres plus for a
bladder and possibly 4 digit

565
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,200
pumping rights.
They're at 600 litres a second.

566
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,120
Can we get to 1000?
Christmas.

567
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,320
Really.
Let's make it happen.

568
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:55,000
I want to say that Maddie Hall,
just make it happen, make it

569
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,560
happen, go get wet.
And great to have him back on

570
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,960
board.
It was a Christmas present to

571
00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:01,360
me.
Sure was.

572
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,520
Go get wet.
On the topic of emissions and,

573
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:10,240
and environment and these sorts
of things, another, another

574
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:14,560
theme that stood out to me was
how Glencore being that leading

575
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,520
example, how they approached,
you know, their, their coal

576
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,400
business.
So they'd sort of flagged this

577
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,240
last year, but it sort of came
in this year.

578
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,880
They bought the Elk Valley
assets from from tech and they

579
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,600
put put it forward saying to
their shareholders, if you want,

580
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:34,720
we'll split the business coal
and you know, base metals

581
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,520
essentially.
And that was pretty quickly

582
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,120
swept under the rug after a few
meetings, I think between Gary

583
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,960
Nagle and and big shareholders.
I don't think there was too much

584
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,880
debate when it actually came.
It was a vote, though.

585
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,920
It was a vote.
Yeah, yeah.

586
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,200
And.
Shareholders clearly wanted the

587
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:54,240
business to remain intact and
you know that the rationale that

588
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,440
they give, you know, the capital
coming in from the coal assets

589
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,400
can fund the base metals as well
as a publicly listed company

590
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:05,240
being much better pair of hands
for all these met and thermal

591
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,560
coal assets that they that they
hold.

592
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,880
And I'm, I'm sure you would have
picked this up, Pete, from where

593
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,840
you sit, but there's been a real
change in the the ESG narrative

594
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,480
over the past four years, hasn't
there?

595
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:22,080
Big time, so much, the view of
coal has just just changed so

596
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,440
much and and probably matured as
well.

597
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,880
I mean the same thing.
So you you reference Glencore

598
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,640
keeping their coal and their big
shareholders being happy to do

599
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,320
that, but also just the sales
processes for those Queensland

600
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,640
cooking coal mines have been so
competitive.

601
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,440
There's so many people in there
wanting to buy these mines.

602
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,120
And obviously met coal's a
little bit easier to argue from

603
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,120
an ESG perspective than thermal
coal.

604
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,360
But the the hot contest for
those assets showed you that

605
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,480
plenty of people still think
this is, you know, an industry

606
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,520
with growth in it and an
industry that you can, you know,

607
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,040
you can look investors in the
eye and say we think met

608
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,680
Colesworth being in.
The other thing on this topic

609
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,960
that really strikes me is these
past 2-3, well, probably five

610
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,160
years, we've talked so much
about critical minerals, right?

611
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,400
And governments all around the
world are telling us that stuff

612
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,600
that we've hardly ever heard of
before are critical.

613
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,720
You know, like, you know,
bismuth is apparently critical.

614
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,280
I don't know what bismuth does.
Apologies to all the bismuth

615
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:26,960
fans in your, you know, in your
audience, but all these other

616
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,320
minerals that are really
bespoken Off Broadway and

617
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,080
thermal coal was not on that
list.

618
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:37,200
But, you know, two years ago
when coal prices started going

619
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,360
through the roof, electricity
prices in NSW started going

620
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,240
through the roof.
What did a federal Labour

621
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,960
government in partnership with a
NSW Liberal government do?

622
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,400
They stopped the NSW thermal
coal exporters from exporting as

623
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,120
much coal.
They said there is now a

624
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,880
domestic reservation.
You must keep this amount at

625
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,400
home for the coal fired power
stations and you must not sell

626
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,400
it for more than $125.00 a tonne
which is basically BH PS unit

627
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,600
cost at Mount Arthur.
Now you can talk to your blue in

628
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,159
the face about how bismuth and,
you know, radium critical, but

629
00:34:11,159 --> 00:34:13,360
when a government steps in and
says sorry, you can't export

630
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,239
that anymore.
Like actions speak louder than

631
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:16,960
words.
I reckon.

632
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,840
So rightly or wrongly, we're at
this stage in the energy

633
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,960
transition where stuff like
thermal coal is still totally

634
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:29,080
critical to our economy, is
still going to be for a long

635
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,480
time.
And.

636
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,120
And it.
Yeah, it just feels like the

637
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,920
conversation's maturing a bit.
I think, you know, people,

638
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,000
people are sort of accepting
that a bit that this is actually

639
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,920
going to be gradual.
And if you believe in the merit

640
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,440
of getting to net 0 by 2050,
that's going to be a hard

641
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,920
political task.
You're going to have to keep the

642
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:54,719
swinging voter who's not very
engaged on board and they're not

643
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,800
going to stay on board if power
prices become so painful they

644
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,600
can't buy their kids shoes.
You know, so it, it sort of

645
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,440
comes back to that idea of a, a
stable transition, you know, and

646
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:09,320
avoiding really bad, you know,
short term outcomes in terms of

647
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,200
power prices, which we're not
entirely doing.

648
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:12,920
We are still suffering a fair
bit of that.

649
00:35:14,240 --> 00:35:18,960
Right back on the Rio sort of
yeah, right, Jabiluka, that was

650
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,120
pretty big this year.
Sure.

651
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,160
What?
And still going and still not.

652
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,600
I guess the final nail in the
coffin isn't there yet because

653
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,440
of the court cases.
And I know there's they're going

654
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,240
to proceed to compulsory
acquisition.

655
00:35:33,240 --> 00:35:36,960
But then there's the the
election and everything and the

656
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,160
timing and whether, if there is
a change of government, whether

657
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,680
they'll intervene and it won't
go into the National Park.

658
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,880
What is the update with
Jabiluka?

659
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,600
Because that was pretty
fascinating.

660
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,240
It was.
And so for your audience who

661
00:35:52,240 --> 00:35:56,360
aren't following it closely, Rio
have just done a big equity

662
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,560
raising of the company that owns
Jabaluka, the company's Energy

663
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,200
resources of Australia.
That equity raising is going to

664
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,240
take them up to something like I
think 98 percent or something,

665
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,080
which is past the threshold
point at which you can go to

666
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,200
compulsory acquisition.
So a lot of the minority

667
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,200
shareholders who had sort of
been a bit of a stone in Rio's

668
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:19,360
shoe at Jabaluka will now be
sort of exited out of the

669
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,480
company whether they like it or
not.

670
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,160
And that gives Rio complete
control over that rehab process.

671
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,560
I think.
I think the saga's pretty much

672
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,600
cooked there.
I'm not sure.

673
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,080
Look, I haven't asked them for a
month or two.

674
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,960
But when we did put the question
to the new government in the NT

675
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,480
about will you, you know, resume
mining at Jabaluka, the answer

676
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,680
was not yes.
It was some very nuanced, we

677
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,400
will respect the traditional
owners.

678
00:36:50,240 --> 00:36:55,600
My, my interaction with those
traditional owners, which has

679
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,040
sort of been ongoing for
probably 1213 years now, have

680
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,920
been up there several times,
walked through the school

681
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,440
they've got there, which teaches
in the local dialer.

682
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,520
It's fascinating.
Like there was posters of Cyril

683
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:11,000
Rioli up on the up on the water
with, with indigenous language

684
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,840
and you just saw this like
different, different version of

685
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:15,840
Australia.
I don't think that traditional

686
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,760
owner group are for moving,
right?

687
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:21,960
You will hear people say, oh,
you know, once one generation,

688
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:26,280
you know, departs this mortal
coil and the younger ones take

689
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,920
over, then there'll be a change
of attitude about mining.

690
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:34,280
If anything, the younger ones
seem to be more fervently

691
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,840
against it.
And, and I remember walking

692
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,960
through that school probably
over a decade ago and there were

693
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,000
posters up on the wall about
Jabaluka.

694
00:37:42,240 --> 00:37:44,840
So it's absolutely intrinsic.
So I don't think they're going

695
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,440
to change their mind.
I think the traditional owners

696
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:50,960
are always going to be opposed
and therefore it's going to be a

697
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:55,680
pretty brave government to you
know, to give the green light to

698
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:57,400
going in.
So I don't I think that will be

699
00:37:57,720 --> 00:38:03,600
buried for all of time.
That deposit in terms of

700
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,200
obviously a big thing you guys
have covered this year on your

701
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,280
show is about the uranium
revival.

702
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,680
And you know, you can see, can't
you, where demand's gonna go.

703
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,480
One thing that.
I'm not fucking money out of it.

704
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,720
This year it's all went down.
It's a long day.

705
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,280
Which I didn't have.
Bloody bastards.

706
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:27,280
One of the things I wonder
about, Matt, is supply because

707
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,680
uranium, there are, you know,
lots of mines that are just

708
00:38:30,720 --> 00:38:35,320
uranium mines such as Cigar Lake
or Langa Heinrich.

709
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,960
But uranium is also a byproduct
that lots of mines and that's

710
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:40,400
dangerous.
You only have to look at the

711
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:44,000
state of cobalt markets to know
how dangerous it is to invest in

712
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,680
a commodity that has a fair bit
of its supply being a byproduct.

713
00:38:48,240 --> 00:38:50,840
And so, you know, there are some
gold mines in South Africa that

714
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,240
produce uranium as a byproduct.
Of course, Olympic Dam famously

715
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:57,240
here.
If BHP ever solve that Rubik's

716
00:38:57,240 --> 00:39:01,600
Cube and get Olympic Dam
expanded, like a lot of uranium

717
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,920
is going to come to the market
and it will be price agnostic.

718
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,800
So even if the uranium market
doesn't need that uranium, it's

719
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,040
just going to come onto the
market because BHP runs that

720
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:16,600
mine for the copper.
So that I reckon is just the big

721
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,480
unanswerable for people in your
audience who are investing in

722
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,840
uranium.
You've got to think about the

723
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,280
the price insensitive uranium
supply that will come.

724
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,120
And I've heard with Olympic dam,
I've heard once, I don't know if

725
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,440
it's true.
I've heard it's not a linear

726
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:37,440
relationship between uranium and
tonnes like say if they double

727
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:38,440
production.
I don't.

728
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,920
I think uranium more than
doubles from what I've heard.

729
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,400
I think he might be right, yeah.
Yeah.

730
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:49,720
So it's like could be, Yeah,
yeah, it's it's, but it's I

731
00:39:49,720 --> 00:39:53,400
suppose what what hasn't moved
in uranium like the spot price

732
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,920
has gone down, but I guess the
term price has gone up.

733
00:39:55,920 --> 00:40:00,160
But the just the the sentiment
there has definitely lifted

734
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,200
whether the underlying the
equities in the spot haven't

735
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,520
really moved.
I think there is, there is a lot

736
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,400
of sentiment there, but as you
said, there's still undetermined

737
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,280
about the.
Because you can.

738
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,640
Only you can't just listen to
one side saying there's a

739
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:20,720
structural supply deficit coming
up, but there is another side,

740
00:40:20,720 --> 00:40:23,240
believe it or not.
Yeah.

741
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:25,600
I mean, you, you mentioned
sentiment.

742
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:29,360
I mean, we are five, 4-5 months
from a federal election where

743
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,600
one of the major parties is
going to the election promising

744
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,960
to build 7 nuclear power
stations on Australian soil.

745
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,040
Like that is so far away from
where we were even 5-6 years

746
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:41,600
ago.
So you did right about sentiment

747
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,480
and we, yeah, we can all see
demand is going to go up.

748
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:47,120
Yeah.
Anyway, we'll wait.

749
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,480
We'll wait and see.
I might have to dip my toe back

750
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,320
in next year.
Have I convinced you?

751
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,440
Am I excited you about your?
Own yeah, yeah, no, it's but

752
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:59,280
it's more whether whether
whether there goes up or down.

753
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,320
It's just it's exciting that as
you said that that's in the news

754
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,880
for Australia.
Like that we're like holy shit,

755
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,760
we're actually talking about
potentially having nuclear power

756
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,160
plant builds in this country,
which you'd never think of but

757
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,080
it's like who the hell isn't
talking?

758
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,080
Which countries aren't talking
about building nuclear power

759
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,760
plants and never will.
Like there is not many around

760
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:24,960
the world because every majority
are saying not we're expanding

761
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,640
nuclear or starting nuclear or
tripling nuclear.

762
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,360
So yeah, it's going to be and
and the time it takes it's going

763
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,120
to leave us behind if we don't
consider it soon.

764
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,760
So going to be the year of
energy is coming up, Curry.

765
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,800
Yeah, well, and I mean, think
about that.

766
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,000
So Peter Dutton's policy is to
build 7 right around the

767
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:47,280
country, which creates this kind
of binary thing because

768
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,160
obviously the price tag of
building 7 out of the taxpayer's

769
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,440
purse, remember, this is
centralised taxpayer.

770
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,640
This is not the, the free market
is going to be huge.

771
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,440
And it lets his political
opponents point to the price tag

772
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,120
and say, well, that's huge and
it's going to take a long time.

773
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:03,840
But imagine a scenario where he
just built one.

774
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,400
Like if you built one near Port
Augusta, Whyalla, BHP is already

775
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,880
railing uranium, you know, out
and through that part of the

776
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:16,440
world.
BHP has big power needs and

777
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,600
wants, you know, to expand and
build a two stage smelter up

778
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:21,200
near Olympic Dam.
They're going to have more power

779
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,920
demand.
PS Wireless steel mill is next

780
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,960
door and every politician seems
to want to throw taxpayers

781
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,760
dollars at at saving that PPS.
They're going to build a big

782
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:35,040
desal plant there in that Upper
Spencer Gulf region to provide

783
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,800
the water to BHP because BHP is
dragging the Great Artesian

784
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,320
Basin down and traditional
owners are getting upset that

785
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,520
they're bubbling.
Springs aren't bubbling anymore,

786
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,160
imagine if they just proposed
one there.

787
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,320
Like he could mount a pretty
good case for it, couldn't you?

788
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,440
Yeah, well, I've got it, but I
suppose they'd still have to.

789
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:56,480
Yeah, I suppose if, if, if BHP
chucked a conversion in an

790
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,400
enrichment facility in full turn
key solution.

791
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,040
But like, because you'd still
there's, there's just so many

792
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,600
steps to bloody get it.
But it was funny.

793
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,800
I actually, I actually went to a
mine site in South Australia the

794
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:12,000
other week and it really was the
first one ever actually.

795
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,640
Yeah.
But the way after talking to

796
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,040
people on site and the regulator
was actually on site on the day

797
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:22,320
and seeing how the regulator was
engaging with the people on site

798
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,080
and the way they speak about the
regulators, they're like a

799
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,440
business partner.
They're not a spy or they're not

800
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,000
SA.
It seems like such, it is such a

801
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,440
mine mining friendly
jurisdiction.

802
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,840
Like after being there and
saying because I've just been

803
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:41,120
focused in WA, like that is not
to be underestimated.

804
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,600
I think we posed the question
earlier this year, like what

805
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,440
jurisdiction would you pick in
Australia to mine in?

806
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,680
It's fucking SA by a mall.
I think that's right and and on

807
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,560
and on.
Uranium in particular, like I

808
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:57,120
remember going to a conference,
a mining conference in Adelaide,

809
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,960
it would have been probably
March 2012.

810
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,000
So it was like one year after
Fukushima.

811
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,840
We were all like writing our one
year on type stories at the

812
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,640
time.
And the SA resources minister at

813
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:12,480
the time, TomTom Kutten's, I'm
going to bugger up his name, Tom

814
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:18,240
Kutten's Kutz, you know, Tom.
Anyway, yeah, he stood up at

815
00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:22,080
this summit and said we should
be enriching uranium here at

816
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,000
home, making nuclear power.
So.

817
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,400
So that tells you something like
one year after Fukushima, when

818
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:31,080
nuclear power could not have
been more unfashionable, elected

819
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,600
officials from SA were still
standing up saying we should

820
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,240
have local nuclear power.
How how about just the mining of

821
00:44:37,240 --> 00:44:39,680
uranium around Australia?
Pete, do you see that changing

822
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:40,280
anytime soon?
I.

823
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,360
Don't know.
It doesn't feel like there's

824
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,080
much progress on in WA on that
right.

825
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,280
Like I I gather Mulga Rock and
Uliria sort of still.

826
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:58,080
Not a mulga rock can be mined
yeah, yeah, that that got like,

827
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,200
you know, dug a bit of a hole
and they will construct that was

828
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,720
classed as construction.
So mulga rock can actually be

829
00:45:04,720 --> 00:45:07,360
mined.
But whether that happens or not,

830
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,760
But the rest of them?
That aside, it doesn't feel like

831
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:14,640
a big ticket item for Nah.
Well, probably the probably the

832
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,880
better question to you what what
is perceived as a bigger issue

833
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,400
probably over eastern nationally
nuclear power or uranium mining

834
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,360
in Australia?
Nuclear power by a mile.

835
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,080
Yeah.
So would you think that if

836
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,240
there's if this nuclear power
thing goes ahead, then your own

837
00:45:31,240 --> 00:45:35,160
new mining should flow through
naturally?

838
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,600
It should certainly lose any
remaining stigma.

839
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:40,640
You would have thought, wouldn't
you?

840
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,200
You would have thought that
having nuclear power stations on

841
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:49,440
home soil is a bigger, bolder
step to take than just having a

842
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,320
uranium mine, particularly given
we've had lots of uranium mines

843
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,120
for a long time.
So yeah, I would have thought

844
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,960
that the challenges in getting
them out from a permitting

845
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,280
perspective and a social
perspective would dissipate.

846
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:07,080
On the on the topic of BHP, how
how do you think they, they sort

847
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:11,040
of, you know, Fed 2024 like how
do you evaluate their year given

848
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:16,040
the sort of botched attempt to
acquire Anglo The you know,

849
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:20,280
they're walking it back and then
sort of not not really doing

850
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:24,000
much from a deal front sort of
subsequent to that.

851
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,400
And buying FILO.
Yeah, I didn't.

852
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:27,440
Sorry, I forgot that.
Yeah.

853
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:32,360
I didn't mind FILO and I was
surprised that they didn't

854
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:36,920
participate in the NGEX raising.
We don't know if you noticed,

855
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:41,000
but Ng for people who haven't
followed it, NGEX is a little

856
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:46,400
explorer that is exceptionally
close to this FILO deposit,

857
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:50,080
which BHP bought into for about
3 billion US, 4 billion US back

858
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:54,800
in what was that August I think.
And NGX has many common

859
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,440
shareholders to FILO, the Lundin
family and so forth.

860
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,840
So I was surprised they didn't
fold that in.

861
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:08,800
I gather that they left that out
just because they felt like it

862
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,240
would just complicate the
transaction a little.

863
00:47:11,240 --> 00:47:13,640
It would be another shareholder
vote that would have to go

864
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,600
through and just create another
Ave for someone to try and get

865
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:20,720
in the way and and block it.
So I think we can all expect

866
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,680
relatively confidently that
NGEX, a Toronto listed company

867
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:28,560
will eventually sort of fold
into that that you know, what do

868
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:30,760
they call it?
Vacuna Province I think they

869
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:32,640
call it.
It's all spun out.

870
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:34,440
Yeah.
It's going to be spun back in.

871
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,240
Yeah, effectively.
Yeah, but but I did, I did find

872
00:47:37,240 --> 00:47:38,520
that telling.
I did find.

873
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:40,400
Sorry, Trevor, I.
Was yeah, I was going to say, I

874
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,720
don't think, I actually don't
think it would have made sense

875
00:47:43,720 --> 00:47:48,560
for them to tip into that race
because like Ng X's deposit

876
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,400
needs a lot of like a lot, lot,
lot more drilling out.

877
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:56,720
It's a veiny system as opposed
to to Philadel Sol and so like

878
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,760
eventually the JV will acquire
it.

879
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:03,720
But for BHP there is no need to
do that deal for 10 maybe even

880
00:48:03,720 --> 00:48:06,400
15 years.
So you may as well like have

881
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,560
that drilling done by someone
else's money and then weigh up

882
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:14,240
whatever the valuation of NGX is
in due course, maybe the deal

883
00:48:14,240 --> 00:48:16,360
probably gets done in five
years, but you know, you don't

884
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,400
have to, You don't have to put
your capital towards towards

885
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:20,760
that process.
You can let other people put

886
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,040
their capital towards that.
It's like Encounter WA 1, very

887
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,040
similar.
Like it's, it's there, but you

888
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:27,520
don't need it yet.
Yeah.

889
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:29,560
Yeah.
Now it's a really good point,

890
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:33,720
Trav.
And I, I think the fact that BHP

891
00:48:33,720 --> 00:48:39,440
saw also suggest some
awkwardness in the, the process

892
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,120
of tying an extra company into
that with an extra shareholder

893
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:45,560
vote told me that they had
learned some lessons out of

894
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,120
Anglo.
I mean, Anglo was a surprisingly

895
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:53,080
complex, ambitious task.
You know, the idea what, we're

896
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:55,320
going to buy something and then
we're going to spit that bit out

897
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:56,680
over there.
I'm going to spit this out over

898
00:48:56,680 --> 00:49:00,200
there and we might try and sell
this bit there.

899
00:49:00,240 --> 00:49:03,360
There is a school of thought
that some hold inside BHP that

900
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,520
that they sort of stuffed up the
external relations on that,

901
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,640
particularly on the South
African side.

902
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,960
To be fair to them, they if you
recall, the deal got leaked

903
00:49:15,240 --> 00:49:17,840
almost certainly via the Anglo
American side.

904
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,800
So perhaps that was just smart
PR by Anglo.

905
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,960
Perhaps Anglo knew that if word
got out in the middle of a South

906
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:27,400
African election that that sort
of nationalist champ, you know,

907
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,120
national champion fervour
protectionist type thing would

908
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:33,320
flare up.
So, you know, to some degree we

909
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,080
have to be fair to BHP and say
they probably didn't plan to

910
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,120
launch this during a South
African election.

911
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:43,200
It just got launched on them.
But look, I, I, it feels like

912
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,560
both Anglo and BHP are moving in
the same direction.

913
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,880
So Anglo is now stripping out
all this complexity.

914
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,080
They're getting rid of a lot of
the things that BHP wouldn't

915
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,040
want.
So that's going to make it when

916
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:59,280
BHP, as I expect eventually come
back again, they will have a

917
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:01,800
simpler target, a simpler
proposition.

918
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:06,520
The overall dollar figure will
be lower, which makes it easier.

919
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,040
But if you're an Anglo
shareholder, perhaps the

920
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,160
valuation on the copper assets
will be higher because they

921
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,120
will, you know, like these
companies like Antofagasta,

922
00:50:15,240 --> 00:50:18,680
who's, you know, copper just
stands sort of on its own.

923
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:22,520
Maybe Anglo can get to a point
get their copper valued at a

924
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,040
higher point when BHP comes in.
Sort of looks like this.

925
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,840
This path we're on right now
sort of works for both camps a

926
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,040
bit.
Ding, Ding, Ding for angler, by

927
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,040
the way.
But how do you think that like

928
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:38,560
BHP put the deal proposed the
deal said if you do all this, we

929
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,280
will take you over.
And now they've they've knocked

930
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:42,760
it back.
But they're, you know, trying to

931
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:45,200
do all that.
But does then that make them

932
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,600
obviously a bit more palatable
for someone else?

933
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,400
Or do you think no one else will
have a guy?

934
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,720
It'll just be BHP looking at
them.

935
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,320
Lots of other people would like
to work with Anglo and I think

936
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:01,200
you guys highlighted on your
show the fact that Anglo is in

937
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,120
talks with some of its
neighbours, maybe it's Glencore

938
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,920
and someone else up at Cabrata
Blanca.

939
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,120
I think about about putting
several minds together into a

940
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,200
sort of partnership model.
So lots of others would be

941
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,280
interested.
But I think BHP being out there

942
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:20,000
with a stated sort of foot in
the water, that scares off a lot

943
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:23,520
of people, right?
Like, like a lot of people will

944
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:27,000
say, do we really need a bidding
wall with BHP when Ivanhoe is

945
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,560
still sitting out there, you
know, waiting for someone?

946
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:32,920
Yeah, it's.
And I think we saw that with

947
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,680
those minerals, right?
Like plenty of people would have

948
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,920
liked those minerals.
No one came in with another bid

949
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:38,080
and.
What was that?

950
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:42,040
Was that 6-9 months before they
between the 1st and the second

951
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:43,600
bid?
About six issues.

952
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:47,280
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And in the case of of Glencore,

953
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:51,480
like I, I think they might be,
you know, excited about things

954
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,840
that might be spotted out of
that potential, you know, BHP

955
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:58,120
Anglo deal, like if they can
get, they can get iron ore

956
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:02,840
exposure from Minas Rio, which
could get spotted out of Anglo.

957
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,640
That's, that's a pretty big win
for, for Glencore.

958
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:07,080
And who else is going to buy
that?

959
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,880
So.
Yeah, well speak if Speaking of

960
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,360
the issue of like things getting
spat out of a BHP Anglo merger,

961
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:17,040
don't forget S 32 right.
So they've got Sierra Gorda

962
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:21,800
copper mine in Chile, which is
like 5K's from BHP Spence copper

963
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:23,960
operation.
And those two assets are moving

964
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,840
closer together like as you like
the resource at Sierra Gorda is

965
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:31,040
taking them towards Spence.
So those two mines definitely

966
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,800
belong together.
Sierra Gorda is closer to Spence

967
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,200
than any of the existing BHP
portfolio.

968
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,760
It's no coincidence that in
November that when all the

969
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:42,840
analyst community went over to
do the big BHP Chilean copper

970
00:52:43,240 --> 00:52:47,640
tour that S 32 had the analyst
command on like on the Thursday

971
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:51,080
after the Monday, Tuesday,
Wednesday South. 32 is a non

972
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,160
operator there though they they
they want to get operatorship of

973
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:59,160
of Sierra Gorda first from.
KGHN yeah, the Polish group

974
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,280
would have a, a say in this,
wouldn't they?

975
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:06,440
And I think even correct me if
I'm wrong, but I think possibly

976
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:11,400
even the CapEx that BHP needs to
spend at Spence is about, I

977
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,360
think the bottleneck might be at
the mill or the processing

978
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:15,280
plant.
Where is it?

979
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,200
Sierra Gorda?
It's the opposite, you know what

980
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,240
I mean, Correct.
Yeah, I, I, I gather that's

981
00:53:21,240 --> 00:53:23,640
case.
So those 2GO together and also

982
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:28,720
BHP has this Cero Colorado mine,
right, which is sort of idled at

983
00:53:28,720 --> 00:53:30,840
the moment.
And if you look in their slide

984
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,360
pack, it's going to be like 3
billion US of CapEx to restart

985
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:36,320
it.
So this thing's got 2 billion

986
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,720
tonnes of copper resource, which
when you're pitching to North

987
00:53:39,720 --> 00:53:43,200
American investors who aren't
particularly savvy about mining,

988
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,680
they love our, it's got 2
billion tonnes of resources,

989
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,560
great.
That tend to think less about

990
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:50,240
whether it's profitable, as you
can see over here.

991
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:54,160
As Tommy Ward check contained
copper contained copper.

992
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,200
But like if you're BHP, the
central narrative out of that

993
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:02,880
big BHP investor to to Chile in
November was we need to spend

994
00:54:02,880 --> 00:54:08,240
somewhere between 10 billion US
and 14 billion US to keep our

995
00:54:08,240 --> 00:54:11,640
production level steady, like to
avoid a drop off.

996
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,880
There was a bit promising a bit
of growth, but really it was not

997
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:19,040
much and Cero Colorado it was
like 3 billion US of that.

998
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,360
So that strikes me as the sort
of thing you're going to be

999
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:25,960
looking for things to cut off
your CapEx bill, sell Cero

1000
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:29,040
Colorado to someone, make a bit
of cash in the door, cut 3

1001
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:33,680
billion off your CapEx bill, you
know, and that that perhaps

1002
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:36,480
allows you to spend the billions
at Olympic Dam to do the two

1003
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,520
stage smelter.
What?

1004
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,120
What expansion would they do at
Olympic Dam that you speak of?

1005
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,280
Is that when the the big pit
they were talking about or what?

1006
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,400
No, no, the big open pit's not
coming back, unfortunately.

1007
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:53,280
Wouldn't that be fun?
No, it's so the cap, I think

1008
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:58,160
it's slated for roughly 2027,
does not yet have FID, but is

1009
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:00,240
sort of notionally going to come
at that time.

1010
00:55:00,240 --> 00:55:04,840
And it's the construction of a
two stage smelter, which you

1011
00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,080
obviously know more about
metallurgy than me, but I gather

1012
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:12,360
it's about the sulphur content
about either the next the ore is

1013
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,280
either going to have too much
sulphur in the future or not

1014
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:16,880
enough that either way this
smelter will better balance the

1015
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:20,400
sulphur.
And that's the SA Copper 500,

1016
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:22,800
you know, target kind of thing
that's.

1017
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:26,520
Yeah, that's right.
And I gather that this also

1018
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:29,680
comes as they feed in all
sources from the old Oz Minerals

1019
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,240
mine.
So prominent hill and carrot

1020
00:55:31,240 --> 00:55:34,120
patina.
I think it helps them with, you

1021
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:39,160
know, to integrate them well.
Yeah, No, because and another

1022
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,040
thing with those, I think when
the OZ minerals ones were by

1023
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:43,720
themselves.
So this is probably back to the

1024
00:55:43,720 --> 00:55:46,720
initial rationale.
They, they had to isolate the

1025
00:55:46,720 --> 00:55:51,400
high uranium areas because that
would just come for the copper.

1026
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:54,400
They couldn't really touch them.
But now it can all be sort of

1027
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:59,600
blended in because BHP like
uranium now I guess.

1028
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,000
Yeah, absolutely.
One of the big winners of the

1029
00:56:03,240 --> 00:56:07,320
Pate were the gold miners who,
yeah finally got back in vogue.

1030
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Is this gold price sort of
rallied to to all time highs.

1031
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:15,280
And you know, we've seen some
pretty, pretty big chunky deals

1032
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:20,640
amongst the ASX miners for like,
you know, recently the Northern

1033
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,760
Star acquiring De Grey, Greyland
picking up Telfa.

1034
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:28,640
Yeah, Red, red 5 silver like
merger, like what have you?

1035
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:31,400
Have you evaluated the gold
space in 2025?

1036
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:35,680
Yeah.
So I would in some ways, I'd bow

1037
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:37,280
to you guys.
You guys definitely know more

1038
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:41,000
about that gold space than me,
particularly being closer to it

1039
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,520
over in WA.
Thank you, Peter.

1040
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,640
And I can extend that to every
commodity probably.

1041
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:55,000
But so the part of the gold
sector that I've probably

1042
00:56:55,000 --> 00:57:00,840
observed more has been Newmont.
You know, I think it was October

1043
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,680
of 2023.
So we're just passed a year

1044
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:08,320
since Newmont closed the new
Crest deal and gold prices have

1045
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,160
gone up, right.
So you would have thought that's

1046
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:12,840
that takeover is looking even
better.

1047
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:17,400
But it doesn't feel like Newmont
shareholders are very happy

1048
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:18,440
They're.
Not happy at all.

1049
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:21,800
They feel like they've been.
Yeah, they've bought a dart.

1050
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:25,760
Yeah, yeah.
And, and Lahir is doing what it

1051
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,520
always does, you know, sound big
and great, but you know, some,

1052
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:33,560
you know, some autoclave has a
problem or the rocks are too hot

1053
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:36,560
for, you know, for humans to be
underground or something like

1054
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:38,800
that.
One thing that should happen

1055
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:43,840
there at Lahia is that that gets
combined with some Barbara's

1056
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:48,400
Simberry.
I get, you know, as you probably

1057
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,280
know, it's Simberry.
There's the the mine needs to

1058
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:55,040
move from an oxide to a sulfa or
maybe the other way around.

1059
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:59,400
And Simbara will have to spend
hundreds of millions to build

1060
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:01,920
processing that can handle that.
Whereas if you stick it on a

1061
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:06,920
barge and you know, float it 5
minutes that way you take it to

1062
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:10,200
Lahir where there is processing
equipment that can handle that

1063
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:13,160
ore.
I gather those two parties, the

1064
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:15,560
owners of those two assets have
talked for a long time.

1065
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:17,720
Back in the New Crest and
Barbara days, there were offers

1066
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:20,040
made and the gap was always just
too big.

1067
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,240
But there's a big prize here for
New Crest.

1068
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:26,440
Oh, sorry.
For Newmont, I should say the

1069
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:28,960
owner of Lahir, which is the
delaying of CapEx.

1070
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,280
At some point, Lahir has huge
CapEx, so they have to build a

1071
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,400
big sea wall to keep the water
out and move because they're

1072
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:38,000
really working in a phone box
there right on the shoreline.

1073
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,400
So if you can do a deal with
Simbury, you buy a few years of,

1074
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,280
you know, shipping that material
over, you delay that sort of big

1075
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:47,840
CapEx.
So that's another deal that

1076
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:51,400
should probably happen soon.
But do you guys reckon that

1077
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:53,200
Northern Star will have any
competition?

1078
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:56,120
No up a degree.
Unlikely.

1079
00:58:56,680 --> 00:58:59,320
Too big of a deal.
Like it'd have to be an

1080
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:02,880
international that'd do it and.
There's literally just a couple

1081
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:03,680
of them as well, right?
Yeah.

1082
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,040
And what, what's the deal valued
at now?

1083
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:09,360
It's like it's obviously not 5
billion now because Northern

1084
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:12,400
Star share price is down.
Probably what, probably 4 1/2 or

1085
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,320
something, don't know.
And Barrack would probably won't

1086
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,920
be able to move because their
CEO will be in gaol in Mali.

1087
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,920
Yeah.
Jeez, and you couldn't see

1088
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:26,240
Barrick re entering Australia, I
wouldn't think.

1089
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:33,640
And yeah, I don't yeah, I'm more
interested to see with that

1090
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:37,040
degrading just because it's so
transformational for Northern

1091
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:40,960
Star, like different like just
it's it's an undeveloped

1092
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:43,760
refractory.
Not it's not semi refractory

1093
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,760
like Kalgoorlie, it's
undeveloped refractory and it's

1094
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,080
Greenfield.
So it's so different to what

1095
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:52,440
their strategy has been that's
sort of built, built the company

1096
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,720
to date.
And I'm just going to be very

1097
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,480
interested in the future what's
behind the hood there that

1098
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:05,160
obviously they've uncovered in
the DD, which is been their

1099
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,200
reason that this is the best
option for them.

1100
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:13,560
So yeah, I'm just because
there's such a they're obviously

1101
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,640
a lane intelligent team,
Northern Star.

1102
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:19,720
They're not like a.
Big bureaucratic organisation,

1103
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,760
like a huge multinational gold
mine a lot.

1104
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:26,480
So they, yeah, they must be so
confident on this being the

1105
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:30,200
right play for them.
So yeah, I'm very, very

1106
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,160
interested in it, so.
I think there's 2 two other

1107
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:36,560
parts of the the gold market
that really intrigued me this

1108
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,560
year.
The the first one is that, you

1109
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:42,480
know, in my view, the Goldie's
didn't move commensurate with

1110
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:45,040
the gold price improvement that
we saw.

1111
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:48,320
And central banks are keen to
gobble up gold and Chuck it in

1112
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:52,120
their reserves.
And you know, institution,

1113
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:55,560
international institutions
weren't keen to buy gold miners

1114
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:58,800
necessarily.
You know, that that money did

1115
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:03,080
not flow through to the same
degree that, you know, the free

1116
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,720
cash flow benefits would have
actually followed through, you

1117
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:07,960
know, year on year for the gold
miners.

1118
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:11,000
And the other one's a bit of a
smaller point, but Newmont's a

1119
01:01:11,000 --> 01:01:13,520
great example.
You mentioned it, Pete, the way

1120
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:16,040
they got smashed when they had
poor earnings.

1121
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:19,440
I think it would have been the
Q3 calendar year earnings.

1122
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:21,160
Like they're down over 30% on
the day.

1123
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:25,480
I think they were down 15 odd
percent and they were a huge 60

1124
01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:30,640
or $70 billion U.S. company.
And that just goes to show the

1125
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:34,040
extent that, that, that quants
and the, and the pod shops, you

1126
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:37,440
know, kind of run the market.
And when, when you don't pass

1127
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,440
the test, you don't meet the
grade, you really get smashed.

1128
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:42,880
And people realise, hey, you're
not making anywhere near enough

1129
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,280
money.
You're not delivering on these

1130
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:47,480
promises.
And they got, they got really

1131
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:49,760
punished for it.
That really stood out to me like

1132
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:53,640
a big, you know, that's a $10
billion sort of plus move.

1133
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:58,240
It's kind of fascinating to see.
Well, and we saw another really,

1134
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:00,880
we've seen a few days like that
where there's been huge moves,

1135
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,080
haven't we?
Like, remember the day that Jan

1136
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:07,200
Cole suspended the dividend
because they were looking at

1137
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:09,280
deals like it was, what, 20% or
something?

1138
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,160
Yeah.
And a couple of weeks ago,

1139
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:15,040
Aluca, like I think it's safe to
say, yeah, management at Aluca

1140
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:18,400
where you know, didn't expect
that sort of share price

1141
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:21,560
decline.
Come on, they must have expected

1142
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:23,360
that.
They put out a deck that that

1143
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:26,240
didn't show project IRR, showed
equity IRR.

1144
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,200
Like, come on, they knew it was.
They knew it was a doozy.

1145
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,280
You know, I'm not sure.
I'm not sure that failed because

1146
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:36,440
what it was more than 10%.
And briefly, there was that

1147
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:40,200
brief moment for like half an
hour that day when Aluka's

1148
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:44,040
market cap fell below the
terrors, which reminded me of

1149
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,440
the days when we used to get
excited because Sandfire's

1150
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:49,080
market cap had gone above OZ
Minerals while OZ Minerals was

1151
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:54,680
still owning the 20% stake.
And like at the moment as well,

1152
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:58,640
like books are price above iron
ore on on certain metrics.

1153
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:00,960
Crazy.
Well, with that Trav, you'd

1154
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:03,400
you'd be more in the words with
this is a Yang called Ding Ding,

1155
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:04,240
Ding Ding Ding.
Are they?

1156
01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:07,080
They're still being priced as if
they're going to allocate

1157
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:08,800
capital.
To something they've made up the

1158
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:13,240
the gains from the when they was
the the divvy.

1159
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:15,480
They're still blast 7 bucks but
they are.

1160
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:19,040
And I think like they haven't
announced doing a special

1161
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,160
dividend like shareholders want
a special dividend.

1162
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,960
They are almost certainly
looking at at buying Kestrel.

1163
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,320
You know, I think shareholders
that'd be, they'd be happy for

1164
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:31,360
them to not buy it and just
declare a special dividend, but.

1165
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,040
Who do you reckon is going to
buy it if they don't?

1166
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:38,960
Kestrel yeah, I think the odds
on favourite to buy or any kind

1167
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,800
of cold investment is just M
resources in consortium with you

1168
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:47,280
know Stanmore or whatever like
their their hyperactive funding

1169
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:51,200
backfire which I family in
Indonesia as well yeah.

1170
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:55,160
Fascinating how Indonesia has
made this big move on Australian

1171
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:56,560
coal in the last decade.
Right.

1172
01:03:56,560 --> 01:04:00,800
So you mentioned the Wijaja
family backing Stanmore, but

1173
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:03,640
we've also seen Anthony Salim,
who has lots of business

1174
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:09,160
interests who's making, Yeah,
he's in Mac and yes, bought Rex

1175
01:04:09,160 --> 01:04:11,920
as well.
And of course, Boomer, I can't

1176
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:15,000
remember what Boomer stands for,
but Buma, the mining services

1177
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:17,600
firm coming into the the recent
Peabody deal.

1178
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:19,600
Yeah.
So you got Indonesia, one of the

1179
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:22,920
world's biggest coal exporters,
for some reason is coming South,

1180
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:24,560
you know, to get into Australian
coal.

1181
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:26,280
Yeah.
And, yeah.

1182
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:28,960
And Matt Lattimore, in a lot of
ways, this kind of unknown

1183
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:32,640
figure who is, you know, clearly
established himself as the coal

1184
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:36,160
tycoon of this cycle, but not
not many people.

1185
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:37,880
We don't know.
We don't know him, you know.

1186
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:40,800
But yeah.
Might bring back Tinkler.

1187
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:43,960
He's he'd be good.
He's good for the media.

1188
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:49,120
What Curry best story you broke
this year?

1189
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:51,920
Did you break any?
What were you first to market?

1190
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:54,960
On what excited you the most?
Or you're just you're just

1191
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:57,120
bloody.
You're just doing to me copy and

1192
01:04:57,120 --> 01:04:59,400
pasting someone else's.
Yeah, exactly.

1193
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:02,800
I'll wait for that money of my
newsletter to come out.

1194
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:06,400
Well, you don't give yourself
enough credit.

1195
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:08,600
There.
Most of it's just.

1196
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:13,920
Coming from you, if I may, if I
may take the story, the question

1197
01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:17,560
on a slight deflection is, so I
have twins who are 6 years old

1198
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:20,560
and every night I sort of give
them a bedtime story.

1199
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:23,560
And the one that we've read the
most this year has a bit of a, a

1200
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:28,600
link to the Aluca Eniaba
situation in my mind because so

1201
01:05:28,600 --> 01:05:31,080
it's called Thelma the Unicorn.
I don't know if any of you've

1202
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:34,480
read it before, but the premise
of Thelma the Unicorn is that

1203
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:41,160
Thelma is like this plain dumpy
horse, great horse in a paddock

1204
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:44,960
who has low self esteem.
And one day through, you know, a

1205
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:48,840
series of, you know, slapstick
events, Thelma gets coated in

1206
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:53,200
pink paint and some glitter and
a carrot lands on her head like

1207
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:55,520
that.
And suddenly people go, you look

1208
01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:57,480
like a Unicorn.
This is incredible.

1209
01:05:57,640 --> 01:06:00,040
And Thelma's like, I've always
wanted to be a Unicorn.

1210
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:03,120
This is exciting.
And Thelma proceeds to lead this

1211
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,240
Rockstar lifestyle, right?
Like she's now, you know,

1212
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:08,760
walking down the street, people
are taking photos, paparazzi,

1213
01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:11,440
They're following her,
screaming, shouting, much like I

1214
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:13,480
gather Matt Michael when he
walks down High Street.

1215
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:19,360
But so anyway, this, this goes
on.

1216
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:23,960
But gradually Thelma starts to
see the downside of fame and she

1217
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,080
starts to realise, oh, people
being mean about me.

1218
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:29,880
Oh, but is this, you know, and I
miss my friend Otis, the donkey

1219
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:33,000
who Thelma shared the shared the
paddock with.

1220
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,960
And by the end of the book,
Thelma decides to wash the pink

1221
01:06:35,960 --> 01:06:38,920
pine off, wash the sparkles,
take the carrot off and just go

1222
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:42,800
back to being a sort of a, a
grey horse in the paddock.

1223
01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:46,520
And so you can probably work out
the analogy I'm painting here is

1224
01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:50,840
that a few years ago, a Luca, a
relatively off Broadway mineral

1225
01:06:50,840 --> 01:06:54,040
sands producer, decided to go
the rock star route and become

1226
01:06:54,360 --> 01:06:57,560
a, you know, a rare earths play
at the time where rare earths is

1227
01:06:57,560 --> 01:07:00,400
the rock star end of the, you
know, the mining industry.

1228
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,040
You know, you get you get to go
have dinner at the White House

1229
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:05,800
if you're in rare earths, let's
be honest.

1230
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:10,920
So I do wonder if, and I watched
your analysis of it a couple of

1231
01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:12,160
weeks ago, which was very in
depth.

1232
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:15,080
I do wonder if, you know, a
Luca's story on rare earths will

1233
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:18,200
be similar, similar to Thelma's
journey as a, as a Unicorn.

1234
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:22,640
But I also think when we think
about that refinery, it's really

1235
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:28,440
important to separate what's
good for a Luca, you know, is it

1236
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:30,720
good for a Luca or is it good
for the government?

1237
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:36,520
And we have to remember, and you
talked about it, how generous

1238
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:40,160
that debt was from the former
Morrison government, you know,

1239
01:07:40,160 --> 01:07:43,080
non recourse and low interest
rates and all that sort of

1240
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,760
stuff.
So even though you made some

1241
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:48,920
really good points there about,
you know, it complicating the

1242
01:07:48,920 --> 01:07:50,600
investment proposition.
Is this a rare?

1243
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:53,680
Is this a mineral sands producer
with a bit of rare earths and an

1244
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:55,560
iron ore royalty tacked in
together?

1245
01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:00,640
They still were kind of looking
at gift horse in the mouth when

1246
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:02,880
they when the government came
with that big cheap debt

1247
01:08:02,880 --> 01:08:05,640
package.
So I wonder if it's more dodgy

1248
01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:08,640
for taxpayers than it is perhaps
for Aluca.

1249
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:11,560
Yeah.
What do you think?

1250
01:08:11,640 --> 01:08:13,560
Do you disagree strongly?
Yeah, I think the, I think the

1251
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:17,680
taxpayers will like this, this
amendment to the loan is not

1252
01:08:17,680 --> 01:08:19,279
going to be the only one in my
opinion.

1253
01:08:19,399 --> 01:08:22,840
There will be cost blowouts and
cost blowouts and then working

1254
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:27,680
interim working capital like
needs and, and yeah, I mean like

1255
01:08:28,080 --> 01:08:30,479
you're going to have, you're
going to require consistent

1256
01:08:31,279 --> 01:08:34,760
concessions from the, the, the
financier in order to kind of

1257
01:08:35,359 --> 01:08:40,040
fund through that if this thing
goes full steam ahead, in my

1258
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:42,439
opinion.
So I don't think you should

1259
01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:46,040
understate the amount of CapEx
Luca has to work out from their

1260
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:50,120
own side of things too.
Because one thing that's like

1261
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:55,160
kind of hidden away is they plan
to bring online Wimera, which is

1262
01:08:55,160 --> 01:08:59,080
in Victoria.
Wimera, you can sell some

1263
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:03,920
product from there, but they
still require a purification

1264
01:09:03,920 --> 01:09:07,760
solution for the for the in
order to sell Zirk and Zirk and

1265
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,880
product from that which is like
it is high, high grade Zirk.

1266
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:14,640
And if you can't figure out a
way to do that, then then the

1267
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:17,920
economics are questionable
unless you are selling the rare

1268
01:09:17,920 --> 01:09:22,319
earth concentrate to any other.
But the CapEx at Wimmer are this

1269
01:09:22,319 --> 01:09:27,359
is APFS ish level a few years
ago, so it was like 775,000,000.

1270
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:29,120
It's called it about a billion
today.

1271
01:09:29,319 --> 01:09:32,479
So it's not going to be like and
that's going to have to be

1272
01:09:32,479 --> 01:09:35,160
funded from a Lucas own balance
sheet.

1273
01:09:35,160 --> 01:09:38,960
And if if you're in the avenue
for that product is the

1274
01:09:38,960 --> 01:09:43,240
refinery, then you know, all I'm
saying is a Lucca are going to

1275
01:09:43,240 --> 01:09:45,160
have to spend a fair bit of
their own money here too.

1276
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:47,800
But the big the big question
mark is on the the taxpayer.

1277
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:50,560
Yeah, it's interesting, isn't
it?

1278
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:55,160
Like the resources industry is a
risk on industry.

1279
01:09:55,360 --> 01:09:59,320
And when I think about like, so
I've reported on it for 13 years

1280
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:01,520
now.
Over that period, the people who

1281
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:05,320
have been willing to take the
most risk have tended to win.

1282
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:08,440
I mean, Andrew Forrest is the
prime example of that.

1283
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:12,200
And with Minrez, if you put
aside the government stuff, if

1284
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:14,320
you, you know, before that
broke, we were all sort of

1285
01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:17,840
fascinated by Minrez just from a
balance sheet perspective.

1286
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:21,480
And that's still really tight.
And they're not out of the woods

1287
01:10:21,560 --> 01:10:23,160
and there's still huge question
marks.

1288
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:27,280
But you know, by selling the gas
and selling the stake in the

1289
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:30,120
whole Rd, they, you know,
they've managed to sort of calm

1290
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:33,680
that a little bit.
And that's one thing I think

1291
01:10:33,680 --> 01:10:38,360
about with Aluca actually, I
kind of wonder, you know, they

1292
01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:40,880
could have played it safe, but
is that, is that what the

1293
01:10:40,880 --> 01:10:44,440
resources industry is for?
It seems to be a place for for

1294
01:10:44,440 --> 01:10:47,960
wild risk taking.
So yeah, we'll watch it with

1295
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:50,240
interest.
I think and probably further to

1296
01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:55,720
your comments about Australian
downstream, like that is even

1297
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:59,240
more risk on because Australia
will never have the scale to be

1298
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:02,440
influential globally in
downstream.

1299
01:11:02,480 --> 01:11:05,080
Like you got, you got to pick
the look at nickel, like

1300
01:11:05,800 --> 01:11:08,920
Indonesia took over rare earths.
Like if the money keeps going

1301
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:11,760
into rare earths downstream,
it's like it's a bet that rare

1302
01:11:11,760 --> 01:11:13,800
earths are going to take off,
but like Australia's never going

1303
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:18,760
to influence it enough lithium.
Like look at what's happened in

1304
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:21,000
lithium downstream.
It's like if we go downstream,

1305
01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:23,320
we're always going to struggle
because we're never going to

1306
01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:26,320
move the needle and take over
the world with it.

1307
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:31,320
So it's always going to have to
come from the workers maybe.

1308
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:34,440
And the downstream is low margin
business as well.

1309
01:11:34,440 --> 01:11:38,280
So you know when it's low margin
and you don't do it right, your

1310
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:42,720
margins gone, Yeah, so and.
And geopolitics is a lot of the

1311
01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:45,240
rationale for why the
government's putting this money

1312
01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:46,880
in.
But if you actually think about

1313
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:50,160
geopolitics, who are our really
close defence partners now?

1314
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:53,200
Obviously the US, but it's Japan
and South Korea.

1315
01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:56,640
They are two nations that have
built their economies on

1316
01:11:57,320 --> 01:11:59,400
downstream, right, on
processing.

1317
01:11:59,400 --> 01:12:02,920
And there have been people in
South Korea in particular who

1318
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:04,720
have looked at Australia talking
about, oh, we're going to start

1319
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:07,200
making batteries and
semiconductors in Australia and

1320
01:12:07,200 --> 01:12:10,360
said, hang on a minute, like
under our friendship isn't isn't

1321
01:12:10,360 --> 01:12:12,760
that our bit?
You know, like you want to, you

1322
01:12:12,760 --> 01:12:14,240
know, you want to do the mining
and that bit.

1323
01:12:14,240 --> 01:12:16,400
Well, then what's in this
friendship for us?

1324
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:21,640
So, So I think we also need to
be mindful of those sorts of

1325
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:25,920
unintended consequences that you
might piss off South Korea or or

1326
01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:29,080
Japan or someone if you try and
eat their lunch.

1327
01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:33,840
What?
I like your Lahir Simberry

1328
01:12:34,680 --> 01:12:36,480
prediction there.
Never even thought of that.

1329
01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:40,320
Kudos to you, Mr Kerr.
Any other?

1330
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:44,600
Have you mentioned that before?
I just don't think so.

1331
01:12:44,600 --> 01:12:45,840
I was.
I was taking notes.

1332
01:12:46,160 --> 01:12:49,120
RIP up bloody Curry.
That's why we love you mate.

1333
01:12:49,400 --> 01:12:52,920
Mate is there any other out
there left field deals?

1334
01:12:52,920 --> 01:12:55,640
Like obviously we don't BHP
Anglo ain't left field.

1335
01:12:56,080 --> 01:12:58,040
Any other little interesting
ones?

1336
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:04,400
2025 predictions whether it's
tie UPS, investments or anything

1337
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:07,160
that maybe we haven't talked
about or you mightn't want to

1338
01:13:07,160 --> 01:13:14,000
give away your secret saucy.
Well, so Cobar, obviously it's

1339
01:13:14,000 --> 01:13:17,280
going to be a scene of
consolidation most likely.

1340
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:19,760
And I I know you guys did an
episode on that so your viewers

1341
01:13:19,760 --> 01:13:23,240
can go back and watch that, you
know, insert type code here.

1342
01:13:25,320 --> 01:13:27,040
But you know, it's interesting,
isn't it?

1343
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:29,440
Like, we can sit here in an air
conditioned office in Melbourne

1344
01:13:29,440 --> 01:13:31,920
and look at a map and say, oh,
it makes lots of sense for that

1345
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:33,520
company to match with that
company.

1346
01:13:33,920 --> 01:13:37,480
But when you talk to the people
out on the ground there, there's

1347
01:13:37,480 --> 01:13:40,960
some often some quite surprising
impediments.

1348
01:13:40,960 --> 01:13:42,800
Like, you know, well, if that
company's going to match with

1349
01:13:42,800 --> 01:13:45,680
that company, the material would
have to be driven on a truck

1350
01:13:45,680 --> 01:13:48,680
through the Main Street of town.
And that's not going to be OK.

1351
01:13:48,680 --> 01:13:51,640
So you therefore have to build a
new road around the outskirts of

1352
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:52,960
town.
And is it going to be bitumen

1353
01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:55,560
road or dirt road or, or, you
know, is there enough water

1354
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:58,760
there between here and there?
So it's easy for us to say.

1355
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:02,240
But yeah, it looks like Cobar.
There's some deals that can be

1356
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:03,480
done there you would have
thought.

1357
01:14:05,480 --> 01:14:09,200
Interesting to watch what's
happening up in those PNG

1358
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:14,240
islands with Geo Pacific and
their close neighbour Kingston

1359
01:14:14,240 --> 01:14:17,280
at Misama, OH.
Both have big a common large

1360
01:14:17,280 --> 01:14:20,360
shareholder Delphi.
Yeah, that's right.

1361
01:14:20,760 --> 01:14:24,920
So and both are sort of in
various stages of processes.

1362
01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:27,840
You know, there's a formal
process now for Misama, whereas

1363
01:14:27,840 --> 01:14:31,640
Geo Pacific are in this rather
interesting to say the least,

1364
01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:36,000
fundraising process.
What else?

1365
01:14:36,000 --> 01:14:38,120
Who else is going to do a deal?
We mentioned Sierra Gorda and

1366
01:14:38,120 --> 01:14:39,720
Spence.
It probably may not be next

1367
01:14:39,720 --> 01:14:41,680
year, but that's got to happen
sometime soon.

1368
01:14:44,840 --> 01:14:47,880
I do wonder thinking longer
term, if some of those coal

1369
01:14:47,880 --> 01:14:52,560
miners, the ASX listed coal
miners make sense to come

1370
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:56,080
together.
So out of that batch of Yan coal

1371
01:14:57,360 --> 01:15:00,720
between Yan coal, Stanmore, New
Hope.

1372
01:15:01,640 --> 01:15:02,960
It might be someone else I'm
forgetting.

1373
01:15:03,440 --> 01:15:09,040
You have you have relatively.
Even P bodies listed over over

1374
01:15:09,040 --> 01:15:12,080
there but can end up with a big
a big Australian portfolio now

1375
01:15:12,080 --> 01:15:14,320
could could easily measure the
one up and down the track.

1376
01:15:15,000 --> 01:15:17,840
Yes.
And and those first three have

1377
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:21,920
registers that are still quite
bulky like like a small number

1378
01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:23,480
on big shares, which makes them
a liquid.

1379
01:15:23,480 --> 01:15:27,320
I mean, that's part of the
reason Jankol has sort of traded

1380
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:30,680
below it's, you know, it's
notional value for a long time

1381
01:15:30,680 --> 01:15:33,680
is because so much of it's
locked up by sort of big Chinese

1382
01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:35,760
in stores.
So if you put two companies

1383
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:38,840
together with really clogged up
registers, you end up with a

1384
01:15:38,840 --> 01:15:41,240
register that's a bit clogged up
but not quite as clogged up.

1385
01:15:41,880 --> 01:15:45,400
I know you guys, Trav and Jonas
have worked in that sort of

1386
01:15:45,400 --> 01:15:47,360
corporate finance.
And would that make sense from

1387
01:15:47,360 --> 01:15:50,080
an M and a perspective like
putting two companies together

1388
01:15:50,240 --> 01:15:53,120
almost just to like make a more
liquid register?

1389
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:57,000
I think like the the impediment
on Yankel for a long time was

1390
01:15:57,000 --> 01:16:00,920
the fact that it it didn't have
enough free float to be in the

1391
01:16:00,920 --> 01:16:04,280
ASX, you know, 200 it actually
is now it's in the it's in the

1392
01:16:04,280 --> 01:16:07,000
two hundreds.
So it got there by virtue of

1393
01:16:07,000 --> 01:16:10,000
these sell downs of Cinder
Group, which were the second

1394
01:16:10,000 --> 01:16:15,120
largest shareholder.
I don't any deal that Yankel do

1395
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:18,880
like any, any merger of one of
those companies you listed would

1396
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:21,360
require fair approval by virtue
of the fact that, you know,

1397
01:16:21,680 --> 01:16:25,160
these Chinese entities are.
And I see that as the that big

1398
01:16:25,160 --> 01:16:27,000
unknown at the moment.
I don't think we're going to

1399
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:30,200
have any kind of view on how
Ferb's going to react to

1400
01:16:30,200 --> 01:16:34,400
Chinese, yeah, Chinese
investments in Australia for for

1401
01:16:34,400 --> 01:16:36,240
minerals projects until the next
government.

1402
01:16:36,240 --> 01:16:41,040
Because like we've seen a lot of
Ferb decisions of that nature.

1403
01:16:41,040 --> 01:16:43,720
Just kind of a kick down the
kick the cans and kick down the

1404
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:48,120
road like month after month
after month in general.

1405
01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:51,600
I think there'd be like an A
political apprehension to have

1406
01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:57,360
like potentially more Australian
assets kind of land banked by

1407
01:16:57,360 --> 01:16:59,640
Chinese control, for lack of a
better word.

1408
01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:04,280
So if they're like, I don't know
if it'd be palatable for for

1409
01:17:04,280 --> 01:17:08,280
Chinese entities to emerge, kind
of call it a 40% shareholder of

1410
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:10,600
the pro forma you get, you know,
enough control to really

1411
01:17:10,600 --> 01:17:16,840
influence things that way.
But the rest, the rest kind of I

1412
01:17:16,840 --> 01:17:19,440
could see I could see a world
where and you hope merged with

1413
01:17:19,440 --> 01:17:22,600
stand more like I wouldn't.
So that's a non zero, yeah.

1414
01:17:24,440 --> 01:17:26,760
Yeah, agree with that point.
And I think there's, you know,

1415
01:17:27,120 --> 01:17:29,840
certain assets as well where it
makes sense.

1416
01:17:29,840 --> 01:17:33,800
I'd have to dust off the the map
again like you kind of speak of.

1417
01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:37,200
But there's definitely a few in
the Bowen Basin that would have

1418
01:17:37,200 --> 01:17:39,600
some sort of synergies which the
companies would be looking at in

1419
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:43,360
light of royalties and these
things, you know, inflation as

1420
01:17:43,360 --> 01:17:47,120
well, jacking up the cost to
make themselves a bit more

1421
01:17:47,120 --> 01:17:50,560
competitive again, Definitely
think that'd be be a worthwhile

1422
01:17:50,560 --> 01:17:52,960
sort of look at.
And I also think just more more

1423
01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:54,880
broadly, a lot of those mines
have gone more and more

1424
01:17:55,320 --> 01:17:57,200
underground as the years have
gone on.

1425
01:17:57,200 --> 01:18:01,520
So there's, you know, the rate,
the risk of disruption is

1426
01:18:02,440 --> 01:18:05,120
steadily growing.
I think we, we saw it with

1427
01:18:05,120 --> 01:18:07,600
Grosvenor this year with the
with the fires there.

1428
01:18:07,600 --> 01:18:10,600
And I think that's that's a
little something to keep an eye

1429
01:18:10,600 --> 01:18:12,760
on too.
Yeah, absolutely.

1430
01:18:12,760 --> 01:18:15,040
And I wonder what's going to
happen with Chalice, right?

1431
01:18:15,120 --> 01:18:17,880
So hasn't that been a fall from
grace?

1432
01:18:19,440 --> 01:18:24,120
You know, we saw a few years ago
Sibanyi Stillwater come into

1433
01:18:24,120 --> 01:18:27,440
Australia and set up a little
Australian presence through, you

1434
01:18:27,440 --> 01:18:31,000
know, through New Century Zinc,
the old zinc mine up there.

1435
01:18:31,000 --> 01:18:33,640
And I think that means they
possibly also have the old Mount

1436
01:18:33,640 --> 01:18:36,400
Lyle copper Tassie, which is
sort of.

1437
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:40,160
Yeah.
So they, I got the vibe at the

1438
01:18:40,160 --> 01:18:43,480
time that Sibanyi were coming
here and wanted to be a player.

1439
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:45,680
They were.
They wanted us to know they were

1440
01:18:45,680 --> 01:18:48,720
here and they were coming.
I think they did quite a lot of

1441
01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:53,040
pges in Africa so I wonder if
they saw Chalice as their as

1442
01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:56,560
their next thing I had a.
Big fall from grace, like just

1443
01:18:57,480 --> 01:19:01,480
big distressed balance sheet,
you know, yeah, PPGM prices came

1444
01:19:01,480 --> 01:19:04,120
under pressure, but a lot of
Sabania is like capital

1445
01:19:04,120 --> 01:19:07,400
allocation was like, quite
frankly, like disastrous.

1446
01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,720
They, you know, they bought a
bunch of stuff, you know, a

1447
01:19:10,720 --> 01:19:13,240
bunch of stakes and things which
were just like very, very

1448
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:15,840
dubious, including New Century,
by the way, which has been a

1449
01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:20,160
disaster for them.
Yeah, but but they're, they're

1450
01:19:20,160 --> 01:19:23,320
still in recovery mode on their
own balance.

1451
01:19:23,480 --> 01:19:25,120
They can't do any deals for a
while.

1452
01:19:25,320 --> 01:19:27,840
That's how I and.
And Speaking of chalice, I

1453
01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:31,000
haven't checked the Palladium
price yet as it got to $2000.

1454
01:19:32,080 --> 01:19:35,920
It's about halfway there.
Got a bit of a way to go.

1455
01:19:36,480 --> 01:19:41,400
Yeah, the the Platts and
Palladium market is still a bear

1456
01:19:41,400 --> 01:19:42,880
mark.
And yeah, on the topic of

1457
01:19:42,880 --> 01:19:47,040
Sabania as well, they had to
sort of put, put some of the US

1458
01:19:47,040 --> 01:19:50,240
OPS on, on, on care and
maintenance in in part, you

1459
01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:54,160
know, pull back plans, pull back
CapEx in, in South Africa.

1460
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:57,920
But that's an interesting market
to to sort of follow.

1461
01:19:57,920 --> 01:20:01,160
Again, geopolitics so much
concentrated in South Africa

1462
01:20:01,160 --> 01:20:04,080
with, you know the other
dominant player being blame

1463
01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:07,080
Russia.
So that's a super, super

1464
01:20:07,600 --> 01:20:10,480
interesting market as well as
you know tying in a few things

1465
01:20:10,480 --> 01:20:13,280
here together the the EV sort of
transact transition.

1466
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:17,920
Where the hybrids play that big
a role and the demand for auto

1467
01:20:17,920 --> 01:20:22,400
catalytic converters grows from
very low expectations, you know,

1468
01:20:22,400 --> 01:20:24,560
from a sort of low expectation
of growth.

1469
01:20:24,560 --> 01:20:27,440
I think that's that's one to
follow.

1470
01:20:27,520 --> 01:20:31,320
And yeah, very limited ways,
Chalice being one of them, to

1471
01:20:31,320 --> 01:20:35,320
kind of look at that that lens
or play that lens on the ASX.

1472
01:20:36,360 --> 01:20:40,840
Yeah, another, this is a slight
deviation from mining, but I

1473
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:44,120
know your audience loves the
sort of counter cyclical kind

1474
01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:47,840
of, you know, bet.
So with hydrogen, which we've

1475
01:20:47,840 --> 01:20:51,320
talked about the part a lot the
past few years, the hydrogen

1476
01:20:51,320 --> 01:20:53,880
market is in the like, if you
think lithium's having a hard

1477
01:20:53,880 --> 01:20:56,840
time right now, go have a look
at the listed hydrogen stocks

1478
01:20:56,840 --> 01:20:59,320
like the Norwegian company Nell
ASA.

1479
01:21:00,320 --> 01:21:05,120
And then there's a couple of
slightly less credible US listed

1480
01:21:05,760 --> 01:21:11,160
hydrogen vehicle aspirants like
Nikola Motors and Tyson and many

1481
01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:13,400
others.
They are almost all of them are

1482
01:21:13,400 --> 01:21:18,920
down 9596 ninety 7%.
And I often think about

1483
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:23,240
Fortescue in this context in in
a company like Nell, the

1484
01:21:23,240 --> 01:21:25,960
Norwegian company that is an
established incumbent

1485
01:21:25,960 --> 01:21:29,360
electrolyzer manufacturer.
They're not like a spivvy start

1486
01:21:29,360 --> 01:21:31,480
up like they make them and sell
them to people.

1487
01:21:31,480 --> 01:21:34,920
Today.
The evaluation is down so much.

1488
01:21:34,920 --> 01:21:37,200
If you're a company like
Fortescue who's still, despite

1489
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:40,720
walking back a bit from your
goals, is saying we still think

1490
01:21:40,720 --> 01:21:43,600
hydrogen's a big thing and we
want to be in hydrogen, why

1491
01:21:43,600 --> 01:21:46,760
aren't they going and buying
Nell like, and instantly getting

1492
01:21:46,760 --> 01:21:50,400
hold of what is it like 10% of
the world's electrolyzer

1493
01:21:50,400 --> 01:21:54,240
manufacturing supply chain?
So I'll look at companies like

1494
01:21:54,240 --> 01:21:56,640
that and think if hydrogen is
going to be a big thing in the

1495
01:21:56,640 --> 01:22:00,840
future.
Right now, Nell is just like a

1496
01:22:00,840 --> 01:22:03,640
screaming buy.
I'm I'm not saying it is a buy.

1497
01:22:03,640 --> 01:22:06,040
I'm saying that if hydrogen is
going to be big.

1498
01:22:06,200 --> 01:22:10,280
The big the big point is if
right and and heck, like who

1499
01:22:10,280 --> 01:22:11,480
knows what force you would do
there.

1500
01:22:11,600 --> 01:22:14,000
And I don't know enough about
now, but to the point on if

1501
01:22:14,000 --> 01:22:16,640
hydrogen is going to be a big
thing, like, and you point it,

1502
01:22:16,640 --> 01:22:19,960
you framed this kind of piece by
saying we like counter cyclical

1503
01:22:19,960 --> 01:22:22,280
things.
Well, I, I would argue that

1504
01:22:22,280 --> 01:22:25,040
hydrogen never had a bull market
because hydrogen always had to

1505
01:22:25,280 --> 01:22:27,640
prove itself.
And the reality is the laws of

1506
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:30,320
thermodynamics dictated that it
is not going to be a cost

1507
01:22:30,320 --> 01:22:34,560
competitive form of, of energy.
Like maybe very bespoke

1508
01:22:34,560 --> 01:22:37,800
applications, but it's just
like, let's get real, like.

1509
01:22:38,520 --> 01:22:40,640
All.
All froth and no cappuccino, you

1510
01:22:40,640 --> 01:22:42,120
reckon?
Yeah, yeah.

1511
01:22:42,480 --> 01:22:46,720
You need crazy high like you
need crazy high, Yeah, like gas

1512
01:22:46,720 --> 01:22:50,160
prices for it to be a realistic
kind of substitute, which we

1513
01:22:50,160 --> 01:22:51,520
don't want.
That's bad for everyone.

1514
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:55,560
I reckon let's let's wrap this
one up Pete, with a couple quick

1515
01:22:55,560 --> 01:23:00,720
fire predictions for 2025 S 1st
3 I put together.

1516
01:23:01,240 --> 01:23:06,840
What will the iron ore, lithium
and gold price be in one year's

1517
01:23:06,840 --> 01:23:09,360
time?
What not pressure?

1518
01:23:12,400 --> 01:23:18,640
Iron ore.
Iron ore will be 91 US because

1519
01:23:18,640 --> 01:23:21,880
there does seem to be, you know,
a fair bit of credibility in

1520
01:23:21,880 --> 01:23:26,240
this idea that it's hard for it
to go below 80 US.

1521
01:23:26,720 --> 01:23:29,160
By this time next year, there
might be a bit of Simon do in

1522
01:23:29,160 --> 01:23:32,880
the market, but not much.
So yeah, like above 80 probably.

1523
01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:35,760
So let's say 91.
What was the next one?

1524
01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:37,000
Lithium, yeah.
Let's go lithium.

1525
01:23:37,760 --> 01:23:41,880
Spodumene.
Oh, cover your ears now, Tony

1526
01:23:41,880 --> 01:23:49,120
Odeviano 800 USA tonne.
Let's hope it's 1500, but 800

1527
01:23:50,200 --> 01:23:53,120
and the third one gold.
Yeah, let's go, go.

1528
01:23:53,120 --> 01:23:57,440
Well, I went to a Melbourne
Mining Club lunch in about 2012

1529
01:23:57,440 --> 01:24:02,400
where the then CEO of EUCRIS,
Greg Robinson, I think he felt

1530
01:24:02,400 --> 01:24:04,560
like he didn't have anything too
interesting to say.

1531
01:24:04,560 --> 01:24:06,880
So I think they just injected
his speech with a wild gold

1532
01:24:06,880 --> 01:24:10,880
price forecast, and I think he
said gold's going to be $5000 an

1533
01:24:10,880 --> 01:24:13,760
ounce by 20-30.
Still waiting now.

1534
01:24:14,360 --> 01:24:16,520
Correct.
So I'm I'm getting on the Greg

1535
01:24:16,520 --> 01:24:21,440
Robinson train, $5000 an ounce.
What What about the exchange

1536
01:24:21,440 --> 01:24:24,600
rate?
Aussie U.S. dollar because

1537
01:24:24,600 --> 01:24:26,240
that's a big effect on these
prices.

1538
01:24:26,920 --> 01:24:29,720
Slightly outside my skill set,
let's say.

1539
01:24:30,720 --> 01:24:34,040
Well, I guess if iron ore's
going down, then we're probably

1540
01:24:34,040 --> 01:24:38,000
weakening, aren't we?
So let's say, let's say 62.

1541
01:24:38,920 --> 01:24:43,000
So will BHB have another bite at
Anglo in the next year?

1542
01:24:43,000 --> 01:24:45,720
Yes.
Yes, I think so, yeah.

1543
01:24:45,840 --> 01:24:47,960
Look, look, the end of your
question is probably the only

1544
01:24:47,960 --> 01:24:50,240
uncertainty, isn't it?
Will it be next year or will

1545
01:24:50,240 --> 01:24:54,400
they, will they wait longer?
But look, they've, they've

1546
01:24:54,400 --> 01:24:56,520
looked like a place that is a
bit impatient.

1547
01:24:56,520 --> 01:25:00,080
And I don't say that as a
criticism, but Mike Henry and

1548
01:25:00,080 --> 01:25:02,080
Ken McKenzie are not going to
die wondering.

1549
01:25:02,080 --> 01:25:04,360
They've made that abundantly
clear these past few years.

1550
01:25:04,360 --> 01:25:08,880
Like when Mike came in, many
people sort of thought he would

1551
01:25:08,880 --> 01:25:12,360
be this sort of, you know,
relatively boring, sort of data

1552
01:25:12,360 --> 01:25:15,160
obsessed kind of guy.
Like he's a man of action,

1553
01:25:15,160 --> 01:25:18,000
right?
The stuff he's done in that, in

1554
01:25:18,000 --> 01:25:22,160
that company, it's been huge.
So you you have to assume that

1555
01:25:22,600 --> 01:25:26,440
these two have another crack
before they, you know, before

1556
01:25:26,440 --> 01:25:30,360
they call it stumps, which on
the default setting is sort of

1557
01:25:30,720 --> 01:25:34,920
this time next year for Kent.
Any other chance?

1558
01:25:35,160 --> 01:25:39,240
What's, what's the big theme
that we reflect back on in 12

1559
01:25:39,240 --> 01:25:46,440
months time?
Maybe the AFR takeover bid for

1560
01:25:46,440 --> 01:25:52,560
money or five.
I can't wait to analyse a deal

1561
01:25:52,560 --> 01:25:56,360
of it ourselves.
It's coming a bit, it's coming a

1562
01:25:56,360 --> 01:26:00,120
bit low.
Travel up the merger ratio, I'll

1563
01:26:00,960 --> 01:26:06,680
be lying.
I don't know.

1564
01:26:07,280 --> 01:26:10,440
Look, one thing that is a bit of
it particularly, I gather your

1565
01:26:10,440 --> 01:26:11,880
studios in West Perth, is that
right?

1566
01:26:11,880 --> 01:26:14,920
Yeah, yes, yeah.
For the good denizens of, you

1567
01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:20,040
know, Havelock St and High
Street, the JMEI, the Junior

1568
01:26:20,040 --> 01:26:23,840
Minerals Exploration Incentive
is this federal programme that's

1569
01:26:23,840 --> 01:26:27,080
existed for about a decade now.
It's pretty small, so doesn't

1570
01:26:27,080 --> 01:26:28,760
get a lot of attention.
I think it might be worth

1571
01:26:28,760 --> 01:26:33,840
something like, I don't know, 25
mil or 30 mil a year in in cost

1572
01:26:33,840 --> 01:26:37,320
to the Australian taxpayer.
And it it allows people who buy

1573
01:26:37,320 --> 01:26:41,280
shares in Greenfield exploration
companies to obtain a tax

1574
01:26:41,280 --> 01:26:43,400
credit.
I gather it's a little bit

1575
01:26:43,400 --> 01:26:48,800
similar to sort of like a, you
know, a dividend, what am I

1576
01:26:48,800 --> 01:26:50,880
saying, franking sort of credit
type thing.

1577
01:26:51,680 --> 01:26:57,200
So that long held policy is only
promised up to June 30 next

1578
01:26:57,200 --> 01:27:00,880
year.
So it will be interesting to see

1579
01:27:00,880 --> 01:27:05,200
if that gets extended because
like, it's been a pretty good

1580
01:27:05,200 --> 01:27:08,080
five years for explorers, right?
And I know we're coming into a

1581
01:27:08,080 --> 01:27:10,400
hard period.
So perhaps that will be the

1582
01:27:10,400 --> 01:27:14,160
industry's sell to Canberra,
which is, you know, all the data

1583
01:27:14,160 --> 01:27:17,680
shows that cash inflows to the
exploration sector are still

1584
01:27:17,680 --> 01:27:19,680
pretty good, but starting to
decline.

1585
01:27:21,720 --> 01:27:24,080
But yeah, they're going to have
to make their case because if

1586
01:27:24,080 --> 01:27:26,840
the budget's heading into
deficit, government's going to

1587
01:27:26,840 --> 01:27:29,840
be, pardon me, looking for every
dollar they can save.

1588
01:27:29,840 --> 01:27:33,440
So yeah, so maybe West Perth
needs to fire up on the the

1589
01:27:33,440 --> 01:27:36,560
JMEI.
Yeah, I think, I think a good

1590
01:27:36,560 --> 01:27:38,280
old iMac are working hard on
that one.

1591
01:27:40,960 --> 01:27:42,520
We're good.
Should we talk about synergies

1592
01:27:42,520 --> 01:27:46,240
between money and money you.
Know.

1593
01:27:46,600 --> 01:27:48,080
Have he's got an office over it?
No.

1594
01:27:48,440 --> 01:27:52,360
Now the Brad Thompson's bloody.
That could be part of the deal.

1595
01:27:52,440 --> 01:27:54,400
I I might.
We're only doing it if Brad

1596
01:27:54,400 --> 01:28:00,200
Thompson comes back.
Brad's having trouble, Brad.

1597
01:28:00,360 --> 01:28:03,000
Brad is having trouble with his
hives at the moment.

1598
01:28:03,000 --> 01:28:06,760
I know you and many other people
in the WA resources industry

1599
01:28:06,760 --> 01:28:09,880
will be devastated to hear that
there's a bit of a problem with

1600
01:28:09,880 --> 01:28:11,080
the bees and the.
Yeah, the.

1601
01:28:11,080 --> 01:28:13,560
Support is the disease like the.
Yeah.

1602
01:28:13,840 --> 01:28:16,280
Like a it was like a bee
pandemic.

1603
01:28:16,600 --> 01:28:18,800
It was bloody when he was
explaining it's fucking oh, it's

1604
01:28:19,680 --> 01:28:22,600
catastrophic.
I'm I'm being very serious when

1605
01:28:22,600 --> 01:28:25,080
I'm saying this.
It was like it was bloody.

1606
01:28:25,560 --> 01:28:28,320
Yeah, tough, tough to be in the
beehive industry at the moment

1607
01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:29,640
by the sounds.
So.

1608
01:28:30,400 --> 01:28:33,680
Jars of bread Thompson's honey
is the must have item in the

1609
01:28:33,680 --> 01:28:38,560
pantry of every, you know,
powerful, influential person in

1610
01:28:38,560 --> 01:28:40,760
WA so.
Yeah, we had to, we had to

1611
01:28:40,760 --> 01:28:44,800
declare that that honey because
it was like a gift from a

1612
01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:46,640
organisation.
We didn't want to think we were

1613
01:28:46,640 --> 01:28:53,480
being bought by that honey.
So no mate, that's what he says.

1614
01:28:53,480 --> 01:28:56,760
Before we go, can I can I call?
Jackie, I've got a random one

1615
01:28:56,760 --> 01:29:00,560
for you actually before, and
I've got my own idea here.

1616
01:29:00,920 --> 01:29:05,360
It's out there.
Do you think Bellevue Gold will

1617
01:29:05,360 --> 01:29:13,160
be acquired and by who?
If so, do you think they do you

1618
01:29:13,160 --> 01:29:17,200
think that they will have to be
acquired, merged or take someone

1619
01:29:17,200 --> 01:29:20,600
over to take the focus off their
one operation?

1620
01:29:23,400 --> 01:29:25,960
I had not thought that I'm
willing to be convinced of that.

1621
01:29:27,800 --> 01:29:30,520
What about this for a crazy idea
that I've literally spent one

1622
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:32,800
second thinking about?
Aren't they quite geographically

1623
01:29:32,800 --> 01:29:34,480
close to Lyontown?
Yes.

1624
01:29:34,640 --> 01:29:38,400
Yep.
Would you put Lyontown and a

1625
01:29:38,400 --> 01:29:42,320
gold miner like Bellevue
together and have and right and

1626
01:29:42,320 --> 01:29:45,200
like have the the down and the
up have the protection and, you

1627
01:29:45,200 --> 01:29:48,400
know, and play a straight back
when you need to?

1628
01:29:48,840 --> 01:29:53,080
Possible mate, That's that's why
Glencore is the yeah, one of my

1629
01:29:53,080 --> 01:29:55,240
favourite companies because they
they get it.

1630
01:29:55,320 --> 01:29:58,200
You just have have your have
your coal and your copper and

1631
01:29:58,200 --> 01:30:01,760
happy days.
Well, that's my because my out

1632
01:30:01,760 --> 01:30:05,720
there 1 is.
Would it make sense that Develop

1633
01:30:05,720 --> 01:30:09,040
and Bellevue come together
that's out there, That is an out

1634
01:30:09,040 --> 01:30:12,240
there 2025 prediction for me
because that'd solve a lot of

1635
01:30:12,240 --> 01:30:15,480
problems on both sides already
there.

1636
01:30:16,160 --> 01:30:19,240
A great idea develop is one of
the really interesting things to

1637
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:21,400
happen in the sector in the past
few years, isn't it?

1638
01:30:21,400 --> 01:30:25,120
And probably doesn't get as much
attention as as it could do

1639
01:30:25,120 --> 01:30:26,680
given Bill's such a big
character.

1640
01:30:28,160 --> 01:30:30,600
Can I completely hijack your
show for 5 minutes?

1641
01:30:30,640 --> 01:30:31,520
Because.
Absolutely.

1642
01:30:31,520 --> 01:30:33,120
We can put it at the front if
you want.

1643
01:30:33,680 --> 01:30:37,160
Well, I've been thinking of ways
that I can completely shred my

1644
01:30:37,160 --> 01:30:40,240
any remaining credibility that
I've got and.

1645
01:30:40,800 --> 01:30:42,600
Well, you came up with your
mind, so that's a good thing.

1646
01:30:44,680 --> 01:30:47,920
And I've had this this recurring
thing for years, right?

1647
01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:50,440
And there's not really much of
an Ave for me.

1648
01:30:50,440 --> 01:30:52,720
There's not an outlet for me to
do this at the Fin review.

1649
01:30:52,720 --> 01:30:54,920
So maybe maybe your audience
will enjoy it.

1650
01:30:55,520 --> 01:30:58,840
And it's this nagging feeling
I've got that every time I

1651
01:30:58,840 --> 01:31:02,440
listen to a mining Prezzo.
It's that mining industry jargon

1652
01:31:03,200 --> 01:31:05,400
makes great names for rock
bands.

1653
01:31:05,680 --> 01:31:10,840
Have you ever noticed what so so
like the you remember when David

1654
01:31:10,840 --> 01:31:13,920
Letterman on the Late Show, he
used to have like tonight's top

1655
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:17,600
five top five reasons why Puff
Daddy should post the Oscars or.

1656
01:31:17,800 --> 01:31:20,600
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I've come up with a top five

1657
01:31:20,600 --> 01:31:23,280
mining industry jargon that
sounds like great name for rock

1658
01:31:23,360 --> 01:31:23,840
bands.
I'm.

1659
01:31:24,320 --> 01:31:25,520
Here, let's hear.
Him I'm here.

1660
01:31:26,320 --> 01:31:28,400
This is called straight on
LinkedIn all.

1661
01:31:29,720 --> 01:31:32,080
Right, all right.
And what I need your part in

1662
01:31:32,080 --> 01:31:33,760
this.
I'm willing to shred my

1663
01:31:33,760 --> 01:31:36,040
credibility over this, but I
just need the crowd, the

1664
01:31:36,040 --> 01:31:38,640
audience, to come along.
Like, wave a cigarette lighter

1665
01:31:38,640 --> 01:31:40,760
if you want you.
Know just it can be the candle

1666
01:31:40,800 --> 01:31:43,240
after like Letterman.
Yeah, exactly.

1667
01:31:43,640 --> 01:31:48,200
So we're gonna start, right?
Think, think mid 80s stadium

1668
01:31:48,200 --> 01:31:51,000
rock.
OK, you're at Wembley Stadium,

1669
01:31:51,160 --> 01:31:53,840
It's packed.
You know, you've just listened

1670
01:31:53,840 --> 01:31:57,880
to Electric Light Orchestra or,
I don't know, some band.

1671
01:31:57,960 --> 01:32:01,200
Def Leppard and OK, you ready?
The next band?

1672
01:32:01,200 --> 01:32:04,480
Welcome to the stage.
Electric Arc Furnace.

1673
01:32:08,160 --> 01:32:10,560
Is that the best name for a rock
band in history, that is.

1674
01:32:10,560 --> 01:32:11,200
Great.
That is great.

1675
01:32:12,160 --> 01:32:15,440
We thought decarbonization of
steel could be like some musical

1676
01:32:17,200 --> 01:32:19,680
all.
Right #2 moving on or or is that

1677
01:32:19,760 --> 01:32:22,960
is that are we working down in?
Yeah, we're going from the good

1678
01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:27,920
ones to the bad ones.
OK #2 so I like, I love a girl

1679
01:32:27,920 --> 01:32:29,920
band, right?
Like the Spice Girls came out

1680
01:32:29,920 --> 01:32:33,800
when I was probably 1314, and it
was a pivotal moment in my, in

1681
01:32:33,800 --> 01:32:38,520
my development.
And you know Bardo, some of your

1682
01:32:38,520 --> 01:32:41,320
people might remember Bardo.
Yeah, that was off the TV, the

1683
01:32:41,680 --> 01:32:43,600
coming out of the Yeah, yeah,
TV.

1684
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:47,600
Not Bananarama the chanteusey.
So you know, so our next, our

1685
01:32:47,600 --> 01:32:50,480
next musical act is a girl band
there.

1686
01:32:50,600 --> 01:32:52,480
There's like 3 or 4 of them.
They're on stage.

1687
01:32:52,480 --> 01:32:56,000
They're wearing cocktail dresses
dressed in really smooth music.

1688
01:32:56,400 --> 01:33:01,200
All right, welcome to the stage.
The synthetic diamonds.

1689
01:33:04,200 --> 01:33:06,680
Am I all right?
Bad and talk about a bad that

1690
01:33:06,680 --> 01:33:10,880
will be controversial, just
think.

1691
01:33:10,880 --> 01:33:14,120
Of work it works better than the
synthetic graphite.

1692
01:33:18,800 --> 01:33:23,160
So moving on like Matt, I reckon
you're into the heavy stuff

1693
01:33:23,160 --> 01:33:24,480
right?
I can see you like.

1694
01:33:24,520 --> 01:33:28,560
Oh no, you wouldn't believe it.
Just just Cold Chisel anything

1695
01:33:28,560 --> 01:33:32,240
that is bricks of beer.
That is more I'm a beer band

1696
01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:34,600
guy.
I had new pegged as someone

1697
01:33:34,600 --> 01:33:38,080
who'd wear like a corn beanie or
like be into Limp Bizkit or

1698
01:33:38,080 --> 01:33:38,800
something.
Like that?

1699
01:33:38,840 --> 01:33:41,440
No, don't estimate.
Underestimate my love for Lady

1700
01:33:41,440 --> 01:33:46,440
Gaga and Pink anyway.
Yes, continue.

1701
01:33:47,080 --> 01:33:51,080
So play like, think of, think of
those sorts of like really tough

1702
01:33:51,080 --> 01:33:53,560
bands, the bands that like
really try to scare, like

1703
01:33:53,760 --> 01:33:55,280
everyone's in their black T
shirt.

1704
01:33:55,520 --> 01:33:57,400
You've watched Korn, you've had
Limp Bizkit.

1705
01:33:57,400 --> 01:34:00,400
Welcome to the stage comminution
circuit.

1706
01:34:05,200 --> 01:34:07,440
Oh love it.
It's like the the metallurgy

1707
01:34:07,440 --> 01:34:13,520
genre.
How hard would they rock people?

1708
01:34:13,880 --> 01:34:19,280
People would get beaten up at
comminutions now next.

1709
01:34:19,560 --> 01:34:22,720
Like probably playing at a
similar festival to comminution

1710
01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:25,200
circuit, but on a different
stage because they're a bit more

1711
01:34:25,200 --> 01:34:28,480
like sort of your punk rockers.
They're a bit cooler, a bit sort

1712
01:34:28,480 --> 01:34:31,080
of younger a bit.
You know, the music's half

1713
01:34:31,080 --> 01:34:34,200
satire.
So you know, you've you've

1714
01:34:34,200 --> 01:34:36,840
listened to everything that
Blink 182's got to do.

1715
01:34:36,840 --> 01:34:39,920
You've listened to some 41.
You've listened to Third Eye

1716
01:34:39,920 --> 01:34:42,720
Blind.
Now welcome to the stage 249 D

1717
01:34:42,720 --> 01:34:46,520
resolution.
Oh Jesus God, that's getting my

1718
01:34:46,520 --> 01:34:53,160
vote and.
And believe it or not, my list

1719
01:34:53,160 --> 01:34:55,200
of top five only has four, so
I'm actually.

1720
01:34:55,200 --> 01:34:59,160
Out communication circuit gets
my.

1721
01:34:59,160 --> 01:35:04,040
Vote no.
I'm going 249 D resolution, rock

1722
01:35:04,040 --> 01:35:07,520
on now.
And you know, now we are on the

1723
01:35:07,520 --> 01:35:11,680
fucking lookout for these names.
Now that is like at the

1724
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:14,000
forefront of my mind.
Everything I read now, I'm not

1725
01:35:14,000 --> 01:35:16,680
gonna take any information in.
I'm just gonna be looking for

1726
01:35:16,680 --> 01:35:19,720
rock band names.
Maybe, maybe your listeners,

1727
01:35:19,720 --> 01:35:22,080
maybe you could throw up one of
those T-shirts or something you

1728
01:35:22,080 --> 01:35:24,560
have like your listeners, it
comes in with the best one over

1729
01:35:24,560 --> 01:35:27,000
summer gets one.
They're good, thinking Curry,

1730
01:35:27,000 --> 01:35:28,400
but.
You're doing our guerrilla

1731
01:35:28,400 --> 01:35:29,920
marketing for us.
I love it.

1732
01:35:31,200 --> 01:35:33,720
Well, no, it's all their their
marketing departments gonna be

1733
01:35:33,840 --> 01:35:36,880
running us soon anyway, so.
Synergies.

1734
01:35:38,680 --> 01:35:43,440
By Curry mate, wishing you and
all your counterparts and even

1735
01:35:43,480 --> 01:35:47,440
people that didn't turn up like
Anthony McDonald, very Merry

1736
01:35:47,480 --> 01:35:51,280
Christmas mate and that was a
fantastic yarn as always mate.

1737
01:35:51,480 --> 01:35:53,120
Merry Christmas.
Thanks, Kerry.

1738
01:35:53,160 --> 01:35:55,840
Thank you.
Thank you for having me and well

1739
01:35:55,840 --> 01:35:58,520
done to you guys.
The world's best mining podcast.

1740
01:35:58,520 --> 01:35:59,480
You've done it.
You're.

1741
01:35:59,880 --> 01:36:00,960
Too kind it.
Helps them.

1742
01:36:00,960 --> 01:36:05,160
We've got no competition.
Beauty do we have?

1743
01:36:05,160 --> 01:36:07,640
Is anyone doing it?
No, no, not in Australia.

1744
01:36:08,520 --> 01:36:10,640
It makes me wonder, are we doing
the right thing?

1745
01:36:13,880 --> 01:36:14,800
Who to Roy?
Money miners.

1746
01:36:15,920 --> 01:36:16,880
Who to Roy.
Carrie.

1747
01:36:17,840 --> 01:36:20,600
See ya.
Good stuff mate, thank you very

1748
01:36:20,600 --> 01:36:22,680
much.
Are you, are you, Is there

1749
01:36:22,680 --> 01:36:25,000
police coming in soon for an
interrogation?

1750
01:36:27,200 --> 01:36:28,760
The telephone books are going to
come in.

1751
01:36:34,560 --> 01:36:36,600
Last show of the year.
That's a wrap.

1752
01:36:36,720 --> 01:36:39,880
Oh, there you go, I can't wait
to play golf.

1753
01:36:41,840 --> 01:36:44,960
Pardon mate, we have a massive,
massive thank you to a whole

1754
01:36:44,960 --> 01:36:48,160
bunch of partners.
And as we not just these ones,

1755
01:36:48,160 --> 01:36:51,760
but everyone that was a partner
through the year, I haven't got

1756
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:54,120
that.
List not just them, the money

1757
01:36:54,120 --> 01:36:58,720
miners in the show.
Massive thank you for enduring

1758
01:36:58,720 --> 01:37:01,200
our content for the entire year.
We look forward to doing it

1759
01:37:01,360 --> 01:37:04,280
again next year.
We're super grateful for the

1760
01:37:04,280 --> 01:37:06,200
wicked audience that we have.
We love you we.

1761
01:37:07,440 --> 01:37:08,640
Love you, we can't thank you
enough.

1762
01:37:09,200 --> 01:37:11,920
Totally indebted.
Mineral mining services.

1763
01:37:12,120 --> 01:37:15,200
Thank you to MMS.
The same goes for grounded,

1764
01:37:15,360 --> 01:37:16,480
sandy ground.
Support.

1765
01:37:16,880 --> 01:37:21,960
CRE Insurance Hey Drew, Love
them, Dave Sat Salt Bush

1766
01:37:21,960 --> 01:37:26,280
contracting love them And last
but certainly not least, get wet

1767
01:37:26,360 --> 01:37:28,000
solutions.
Love you, Maddie Hall.

1768
01:37:28,680 --> 01:37:32,520
Odori money, my love you.
Information contained in this

1769
01:37:32,520 --> 01:37:35,280
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1770
01:37:35,280 --> 01:37:37,920
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1771
01:37:37,960 --> 01:37:40,000
or needs of any particular
person.

1772
01:37:40,280 --> 01:37:43,320
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1773
01:37:43,320 --> 01:37:46,400
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1774
01:37:46,400 --> 01:37:49,240
advice is to your objectives
financial situation.

1775
01:37:49,480 --> 01:37:50,080
And needs.