Are Paladin investors celebrating too early?

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Righto muddy miners quarterly.
We didn't it's a surprise

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Wednesday show cause fucking
it's quarterly.

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So it's just pump it.
So why not just smash it now?

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That's it, mate.
We're on a roll.

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We're being away.
We're we're just hammering his

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heart.
So it's.

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'Cause we want to take Friday
off.

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Couldn't get an interview in
time.

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That's the truth.
But, well, what have we got

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tonight?
Paladin's Quarterly out years

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ago.
Over to Pakistan.

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God's Pakistan.
God's country.

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Really interesting news out of
there.

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And Aloka I think as well.
Bit of a yeah movement I

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chucked.
Aloka in at the very end.

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Maddie Yeah, yeah, Could.
Help some big movements on these

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quarterlys.
Hey, yeah, yeah.

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Paladin 1010 odd percent.
Big short interest Aloka when I

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looked for down 8 odd percent.
Yep, that would be the only one

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that went down that I've noticed
in the last couple of days.

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But yeah.
Pantoro scraped through with

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what, 6,000,000 bucks extra?
But they're still, they're still

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up 2%.
But gold was up.

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Gold's evos were ripping and
tearing.

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All the ones we talked about
yesterday were up, yeah.

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Oh yeah, we haven't talked about
evos today.

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They what'd they make 100 and
was 100 or 170 mil?

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Sounds like a number.
Yeah, 165 I think was the group

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cash flow, Mangari's investment
sort of coming to its end.

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Looks like a fairly decent
quarter, a bit under 200,000 oz

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were done in 18 1/2 thousand
tons in copper.

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Sorry Evas, you didn't get the
attention Northern Star did

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yesterday, but hey bloody there
was a uranium story so.

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They put early in the quarter
and you probably get it, yeah.

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Yeah, spread it out.
Yeah, that's true, right.

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Let's RIP in Paladin the
highlights.

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So what do we got?
They had they they had a 12 day

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shut this quarter, which was
planned for November.

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So obviously last quarter we saw
the you know the guidance get

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reduced from, you know the four
to four and a half down to three

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to £3.6 million.
The guidance got reduced after

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the quarterly came out, so and.
Since then, the the short

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interest has just been climbing
and.

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Climbing, yeah, yeah.
So I'll, I'll, I'll talk about

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the short interest at the end
'cause it's getting very

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interesting with them and their
Aussie counterpart, you'd say.

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So they once they got back up
and gone, says they in December

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they produced 308,000 lbs.
So for the quarter they produced

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Ding Ding fucking 638,000 lbs.
So year to date £1.278 million

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and they're guiding for three to
3.6.

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So effectively they need to for
the next six months, achieve

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what they achieved in December
for six months straight to make

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the bottom end of guidance
actually need to achieve about

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Bloody.
I think it's about £330,000 for

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to get the midpoint as well so.
So the big news Maddie, after

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the quarterly was the water
challenges with Nam water.

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And then it sort of factored in
when we last spoke about it.

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They had this shutdown coming in
which they we'd have a bit of an

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opportunity to to build up the
the amount of water they have

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there.
Yeah, but that would only be a

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short term fix.
So how are things looking on on

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that kind of front?
Well, and I think it's like

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there's multiple issues that all
relate to each other with the

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water by the sound.
So because it was going through

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a drought period, the Argonaut
note actually said that they got

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about 85 mil of rainfall month
to date at Windowick.

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It's about 180 KS east of the
project.

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So in that area.
So it sounds like there's a bit

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of rain.
Hopefully maybe the drought

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conditions are subsiding.
So then they said the water

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deliveries from name water
improved and they didn't have

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any water delays, water related
disruptions in December.

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But then then you got to balance
that with like the processing

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and like the the water
reclaiming the water from the

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tilings and all that and then
the throughput and everything.

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So there's a bit, yeah, there's
a lot a big balance there by the

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sounds about the the site water
balance that they they refer to.

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So they said they'd put in extra
projects that increase the

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storage on site.
So that sounds like they got a

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bit more of a buffer after the
shutdown.

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So yeah, just, it'll be a, it'll
be a wait and see.

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They, I'll get to the operation.
What's happened?

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But they, they got asked about,
like they did mention about

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possibly pulling the mining
forward because they were

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scheduled to start the open pit
mining in July.

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But, and they were asked about
like, you know, what can you do

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to pull it forward?
But I was listening to the call

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and it just, no, I just didn't
get much confidence though.

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Like they didn't really talk
about like that the contracts

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have been tendered or are the
contractors ready?

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They're like, Oh yeah, there's a
bit of work to do to get the

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drill and blast going and all
that.

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It just sounded like because
that that's going to be the

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kicker of starting the open pit
mining because as you can see

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the the grade of the stockpile
has decreased again to what they

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were predicting.
So just out like you know the

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restart study had the stockpile
of 508 PPM and it was 404 PPM

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fee grade this quarter.
So hence big driver of why the

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guidance is down also is the
grade of what that stockpile is

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coming back at, whereas the pit
is they will should have a good

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understanding of what the grade
is from drilling and where is

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this stockpile it's bond already
you can't control the grade.

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It is what it is and they.
Obviously you should still know

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what it is.
Well, I don't know if they've

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infill drilled a stockpile.
Can you do that?

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Sample it.
Yeah, but how do you sample it

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as you go deep?
There's a lot of variability

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too, because you.
As you go deeper, you'll get

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down.
Then you can sample it when you

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go unless they fucking drill
down through the whole thing,

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which fucking I don't know if it
can be sounds fucking hard, but

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there's it's yeah, it's that's
very different.

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It's like. 20 plus percent sort
of difference here then, yeah,

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quite a miss.
Yeah.

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So I know, I think there's
whether there must be bits of

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waste in there because they're
talking about variability in it.

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So like there's sounds like a
bit of a bloody shit fight that

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stockpile.
Is the increase in grade you're

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going to get from the open pit,
will that, will that be like

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enough to offset the, you know,
the addition of the mining costs

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to the to the production
profile?

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I think it's also it'll make
everything easier, which should

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cost less because the increased
grade means they will get better

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recoveries because they've got
more consistent feed, because at

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the moment they've got a unknown
grade going through the mill and

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there'll be stops and starts and
which are going to increase

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costs.
But if if the grades are in the

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pit and they're putting more
through and they're getting more

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uranium, the cost per pound
should be yes, significantly

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less by a denominator
relationship.

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So but yeah, I'll just I just
thought that'd be trying to get

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didn't really give much color on
yeah, getting towards first

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production on the pit.
It said July, but fuck it, it'd

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be if you're going through this
shit now, it'd be it's and

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risking potential.
I don't know if there's a cost

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thing related to it, but if
you're if they're going to miss

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this guidance after downgrade
and they'll get bloody hammered

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for it.
So.

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They got their work cut out for
them to to make that revised

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guidance.
But how about the the cash front

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and sort of worth mentioning
that the Fission deal is sort of

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coming coming together.
So that does change how the the

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financials look a bit.
They were, they were very a lot

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of talk on the field, though
there was more talk on fission,

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what they're going to do with
PLS than Langa Heinrich on the

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call.
I felt they're really focusing

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on, you know, marketing the the
PLS part of their business now,

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not the Langa Heinrich, which I
found interesting.

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And the a bit of cash come in
the door from now that deals

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complete, the pro forma cash has
come in.

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So they've gone up from what
they have.

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See.
Fuck, we've got bloody notes

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everywhere here.
Cash lifted from 55.

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To 1-6 yeah, so and so there was
an extra 5 mil drawn on the

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debt.
So the debt's sitting at hundred

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100 and there was what another
30 odd US come in from they they

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it was in the investing
activities part of the 5B, but

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that was sort of the the money
that's come in from the fission

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fission deal.
So yeah, so they made they made

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a bit of money Lang Heinrich
processing the stockpiles by the

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looks.
So yeah, it's just going to be

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going to be an interesting
couple of quarters.

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It sounds like every quarterly
I'll go through, it's like next

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quarter's a big one.
Mate, I saw I saw a tweet

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yesterday.
I should have made a top tweet,

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but it was like the immutable
law of mining guidance is always

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second-half weighted.
Oh.

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Isn't it what?
Yeah, isn't it freaking what?

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So yeah, as I said, £337,000 a
month to make the midpoint they

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need.
So we will wait and see.

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So if they the, the the band
target recovery band was 85 to

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90% and they're sitting at 88
for the quarter.

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So that that was bloody good
work there.

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So yeah, I think.
Recovery was a big win.

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Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so.

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So now you've got the.
But I think I think that cash,

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that cash in the door, so having
that 160 odd plus, you know, I

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think that's probably helped the
market sentiment.

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The big lift today.
I'm not sure a reason because

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it's like I looked at the
guidance, I'm like, oh, it's

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going to be still a bit hard to
reach the bottom end after the

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downgrade.
But maybe the fear, like fear

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previously was like, fuck, if
they have another shit quarter

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discounting what was coming in
from the Fission deal, they

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might be at risk of raising
money with the debt as well.

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But it looks like a bit of
pressure off now they're, you

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know, 66 mil net cash.
So, yeah, so, so if the plant

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and water upgrades and
everything bring the chocolates

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next quarter and if I can
hopefully keep the stockpile

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grade above 400 PPM because it's
been getting close to going

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below it.
It sounds like just doing doing

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OK was, you know, exceeding
expectations in a way.

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Yeah, yeah.
But I guess they've only been

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given one month to sort of get
it going since the shot.

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So if they got a good three
months down, maybe the only

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thing with the whole water
balancing is, and it was a

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00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,360
question I think George Ross
asked it like will increase in

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00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,680
the throughput and all that put
pressure on the amount of water

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00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,720
needed to maintain that high
throughput.

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00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,720
So, yeah, yeah, very, very water
dependent over there, but should

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00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,000
be going into the knot drought
season.

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00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,600
I think that we've gone through
the drought as we've seen so.

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More importantly mate, now that
you've got the hedge fund going.

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Oh, the stocks are up.
Jeez I fuck it.

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Jeez, I what did I sell me boss
at 280 dumbass.

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But he yeah.
Palat Palatin up 11 1/2 percent

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00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:43,440
today. 9 bucks 30 Boss also up
12.6% so and they're like both

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the top two shorted stocks.
So since we were chatting

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00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,960
mid-december, like Paladin's up
20% since then when the short

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00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,160
interest was rising and BOSS is
up nearly 30%.

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00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,920
So there's yeah, there's a bit
and they're the two out

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00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:01,600
performers on the ASX today in
the uranium fucking that's not

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00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,560
across the board.
So bit of a bloody yeah.

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00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,680
Whether they're whether, whether
the brokers are trying to get

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00:11:07,680 --> 00:11:09,600
that short squeeze going, who
knows.

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00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,640
So because I think boss reports
at the end of the month and

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00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,920
their costs will be coming out
as well.

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00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:20,760
So that's going to be a pretty
liquidity event, not a liquidity

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event.
That's like an event, an event,

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00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,040
just an event.
There's going to be some

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liquidity flying around,
volatile event, volatile event.

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13% on known users.
That's a that's a big movement,

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people reading into what's going
on here and whatnot.

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I mean the.
Correlation of those two charts

225
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,360
is so striking.
Yeah, isn't it when you just

226
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,280
like, like when you paste them
like that, Maddie?

227
00:11:39,560 --> 00:11:44,240
And as, but as we said they
there is there an element also

228
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:49,200
of like long next Gen. short,
these ones with short interest

229
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,560
as well like there's and there's
but there's obviously.

230
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,280
Even Chamico people might be
looking for it, yeah.

231
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,360
Yeah, it's like, but there's
with those short, they're

232
00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:01,040
obviously for boss to be 18.6%
short.

233
00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:02,880
There's there's they're
obviously banking in a

234
00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,800
downgrade.
The shorters are banking in a

235
00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,600
downgrade for that.
So we'll wait to see if that if

236
00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,440
that happens or not.
So as you said last year, the

237
00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:17,000
it's most of the short like the
Pilbara short last year short

238
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:18,280
for ages.
They were right.

239
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,440
The Genesis 1 hasn't been.
Yeah, you're right.

240
00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,360
Yeah, Genesis is still.
Defy the odds I.

241
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,720
Think the most shorted gold
stock, it's shorted more than

242
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,960
Bellevue, but yeah, yeah.
So that that's that's just

243
00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,200
cracked over 3 bucks today.
So it'd be tough short gold at

244
00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,160
the moment.
So but as I said, they're not

245
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:41,200
it's not like these are naked
shorts like they're usually

246
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:45,760
shorted paired with something.
I would assume so, but yes,

247
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,000
that's going to be interesting
to say.

248
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,000
Go go bloody uranium.
Yeah, she's she's back.

249
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,840
So Oh mate, as always, say got
me eyes peeled for next quarter.

250
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,640
Let's stop just another stock
standard saying.

251
00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,520
But you work.
Mate, but the Payless thing is

252
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:05,240
going to be interesting because
it's like big project like

253
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,960
you're, you're, it's not a next
Gen. level, but it's still a

254
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:12,000
fucking project that is going to
require a shit load of capital.

255
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,360
And it's you, you you could
infer it's sort of second in

256
00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:21,280
line to Arrow in terms of the
priority of that fucking region

257
00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:22,760
as they're next door to each
other.

258
00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:28,400
So yeah, it's just now it's in
the portfolio.

259
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,560
How are they going to sort of
manage keeping it in the

260
00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:33,760
portfolio with cash and
everything?

261
00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,880
Because it's it's not cheap to
keep these big projects unless

262
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:40,520
you just shut shop there, but
you still have to maintain it.

263
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,040
Yeah, I don't know.
I'm not, not as across all the

264
00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,240
details or anything.
But like you mentioned they were

265
00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,040
marketing a lot.
They've they've also now got a

266
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,760
lot of more international
register than they had before by

267
00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,440
virtue of the merger.
So they're like, I wouldn't be

268
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,760
surprised to see them, you know,
try and try and advance as fast

269
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,200
as possible and talk a lot about
them actually having a growth

270
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,840
project, yadda, yadda, yadda.
And yeah, yeah, whether that

271
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:03,400
felt.
A lot.

272
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,240
The narrative, yeah, today,
yeah, really felt a lot the

273
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,920
narrative and the that gets the
flows, the fucking ETF money,

274
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,560
capital flows.
Yeah.

275
00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:20,480
So next, Menara buying a stake
in Rico Deak.

276
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:25,040
Now what a joint this is, boys.
You've got a story about it

277
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,440
mate, I'm keen to.
Hear funny story.

278
00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:31,120
So Rico Deak or Brett.
Shout out to Brett Growcock,

279
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,240
who's a bloody that is his name
JB.

280
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:37,200
He'll come and punch your head
in.

281
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:43,920
Didn't say anything mate.
He is a surveyor and he actually

282
00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:48,040
was telling me he was surveying
the, he was doing the fucking

283
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:52,880
land survey at Rico Deke, oh
fuck, decades ago.

284
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:57,600
And like, and it was reckons
'cause it's as you can see on

285
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,240
the map here in the western edge
of Pakistan, right near the

286
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,040
border of Iran and Afghanistan.
And he said he's, he'd be

287
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,640
walking around and there'd be
utes fucking flying in the

288
00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,480
distance like all smugglers and
everything.

289
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,080
But being he's like, fuck, am I
going to get bloody shot here or

290
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,040
something?
But being Pakistan, as soon as

291
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,400
he said Shane Warne, Shane
Warne, they'll fuck it all good

292
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,280
'cause they're all cricket fans.
So the best, if you want to get

293
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,640
get out of the shit in Pakistan,
just drop some cricket,

294
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,160
Australian cricket names, drop
on his name, the legend himself,

295
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:34,360
the King and you'll be fine.
So mate, I could see bloody MMS

296
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,160
start ripping the ass out of
bloody Rico Deke soon.

297
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:41,240
Imagine that 90 years are going
to go through it. 90 million

298
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,800
tons of ore feet a year mate
that has got MMS name written

299
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,600
all over it.
I don't want to DOB you into

300
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,000
Rico Deke.
Yeah.

301
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,440
MMS but when you think of it,
the good contract mining

302
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,880
services open pick contract that
could actually deliver 90

303
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,120
million tons a year.
Imagine the JV they could do

304
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,880
with Barrick and bloody and the
Saudis that you're going to go

305
00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:02,760
through right.
But but as we said, they've

306
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,720
propelled black cap to fame.
They're propelling Wesley's and

307
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,120
SQM to fame.
They've got our they've

308
00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,880
propelled vault to fame.
Just get them to propel your

309
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,200
business to fame by giving them
an open pit mining contract

310
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,200
right now.
They're ready to go get them

311
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,000
before they go to Rico Deke and
even if.

312
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,360
You're not ready.
It doesn't matter.

313
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,080
Even if you're not ready,
they've got the technical

314
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:24,880
services capability to get you
ready.

315
00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:29,760
All turn key solution, mining
and technical solution.

316
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,600
That's it right?
Now who is Manara?

317
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,080
Let's get into it.
So there's a few sort of

318
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,440
companies we're going to clarify
first, so people understand what

319
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,600
we're talking about.
To start with, Maddie, you got

320
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:47,480
Manara JV between the Saudi
Arabian miner Marden, which

321
00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,640
people might have heard of, and
they're massive, Yeah, they're

322
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,360
huge.
And the Public Investment Fund,

323
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,720
which is a bit of a generic
name, but it's the sovereign

324
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,440
wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, so
I'm sure people would have heard

325
00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:58,200
of them.
In the past.

326
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,760
They've bought the Premier
League team, Newcastle United

327
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,040
they've been involved in.
Newcastle United.

328
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,839
Heaps of sports, golf, all these
sorts of things.

329
00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:08,560
So they're the live, they got
the live gown did.

330
00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,680
They they are the backers owning
massive stakes in heaps of

331
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,319
assets.
They own stakes in tech

332
00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:16,720
companies across America.
They invest in some of the

333
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,839
biggest funds, venture capital
firms across the world.

334
00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:21,720
They're one of the biggest
sovereign wealth funds in the

335
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,280
world, about a trillion U.S.
dollars.

336
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:29,520
Are they not as big as Nordis?
They'd be in the same ballpark.

337
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,560
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's a a lot of money that they

338
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,120
managed obviously derived.
Both of them come from oil.

339
00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:37,520
Yeah, Yeah.
Yeah, exactly, man.

340
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,600
And so that they still have a
massive stake in Saudi Aramco.

341
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,720
I think it's a 16 odd percent
stake.

342
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,920
And obviously a lot of the money
is has come from there.

343
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,280
Then you've got Marden, which
was the company set up by the

344
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,600
Saudi Arabian government to
develop mineral resources in the

345
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,160
country.
It was set up almost 3 decades

346
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:59,480
ago I think in 97 from memories
when they set it up I think in

347
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,080
2007 ish they listed on the
Saudi exchange.

348
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:08,160
For a while it was 5050 between
government ownership and just

349
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,880
free float.
Now it's about 2/3 owned by PIF

350
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,360
itself so the rest floats out
there.

351
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,720
Madam actually has a contract
with Barrett who were obviously

352
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,800
going to talk about as well.
At the moment they've got a

353
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:23,480
small mine where they produce
about 30,000 tons of copper in

354
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,200
Saudi Arabia right now that's
called Jabal Saeed.

355
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,440
So they've done some work
together in the past.

356
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,920
Yeah I I would love to talk
about a site visit magic going

357
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,960
through like the Saudi Arabia
oil fields just to see the that

358
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,360
must just be phenomenal that
joint now I'm into oil I'm going

359
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:41,720
to go work on the patch in West
TX it'd.

360
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,920
Be it'd be wild and.
Ought to be.

361
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,080
I was talking to, I was talking
to the land man, actually, yeah.

362
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,320
The man himself.
He just said it's, it's fucking

363
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,360
something.
You can't get your head around

364
00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:53,920
how big it is.
It is that that rich.

365
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,080
Yeah, absolutely.
So just just to wrap up on

366
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,560
Menara, they were set up with
the purpose of investing in

367
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,320
global mining assets.
And people out there might

368
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,560
remember about 18 months ago we
mentioned that they did a deal

369
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:10,600
with another investment firm
from the states to buy 13 odd

370
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,200
percent in Valet's base metals
unit.

371
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,880
There's a lot of talk about this
being spun out in the future.

372
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:20,640
I think they combined spent 3.4
billion U.S. dollars to buy that

373
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,600
13% stake.
So all part of the push from

374
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,200
Saudi Arabian Kingdom to
diversify its wealth from

375
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,880
energy.
I wish I'll need to get on a

376
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,000
bloody deal with them.
Or was it Neymar?

377
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:37,960
He'd get 500 grand US to put a
social media poster promoting

378
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,800
Saudi Arabia.
Yeah, never mind the $100

379
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,480
million just from, yeah, playing
a couple games this season.

380
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,560
I'll do it for 2:50 if you need
to.

381
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,200
Bigger personality.
All right, let's talk about Rico

382
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,640
Dick now the the project itself.
So like you said, Maddie, this

383
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,960
one's in Pakistan.
I don't think we've actually

384
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,720
specifically spoken about it,
but we've spoken around it a few

385
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,320
times in the show.
But this is a massive copper

386
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,040
gold porphyry project, like you
said in the in the sort of

387
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,840
mountains there, out in the
western part of the country.

388
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:13,040
The ownership is 50%.
Barrick 25% is split across 3

389
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,680
Pakistani enterprises they're
actually all coming from.

390
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,000
Petroleum based enterprises set
up by the Pakistani government

391
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:25,560
and then you've got the the
government of Balochistan, which

392
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,920
is the province in which the
project sits.

393
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,480
Now just a note on that 25
percent, 15% they'll have to pay

394
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:36,280
for CapEx and these sorts of
things, 10% is free carried

395
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,160
interest.
Yeah, yeah.

396
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,120
For just for, for that
government.

397
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,960
Not, not for that.
Owned by the province, that

398
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,360
final 25.
Yeah, that's right.

399
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,400
I mean, it a bit hard to find
information on this.

400
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,840
It sort of comes in drips and
drabs as a presentation in 2022.

401
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,960
And then in the Investor Day
last year, Barrack spoke a bit

402
00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,880
about it.
Lots of comments tossed up in at

403
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,080
conferences and these sorts of
things where Mike Briston people

404
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,040
have spoken.
But finding all this information

405
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,680
together isn't isn't the
easiest.

406
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,000
But this, this, this like
development is like it's,

407
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,320
they're going to seriously
meaningfully transform the, the

408
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:14,920
copper production of Barrick,
right?

409
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,200
Like there's an enormous, like
an enormous kind of copper

410
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,200
profile and gold production
profile that's going to come out

411
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:20,880
of this project.
Yeah.

412
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,760
So once stage 10, stage 2 is
done, we're talking about

413
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,840
400,000 tons a year of copper
and 500,000 oz a year of gold.

414
00:21:28,120 --> 00:21:31,840
This with lamina in Zambia is
going to massively kick on the

415
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,280
the copper production that comes
from Barrick.

416
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,880
It's it's just huge and part of
their pushed to be a bit more of

417
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,840
a copper miner as well.
Stage 1 is half that.

418
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,160
So it's like a lot of these
massive projects, Stage 1 and

419
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,040
Stage 2.
And on the CapEx front, US 5.5

420
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:53,320
was the latest number given for
stage 1 and then 3.5 for stage 2

421
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,840
targeting end of 2028.
So early works has already

422
00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:01,360
started here, maybe that drags
into early 2029, but you know,

423
00:22:01,360 --> 00:22:04,640
we're in 2025 now that is not
far away from full scale

424
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,880
construction going ahead.
So it's a pretty, pretty

425
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,160
exciting time for for the
company and for the country as

426
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,000
well.
It's massive, massive investment

427
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:17,680
for Pakistan, which is, you
know, you know, to it stands out

428
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,960
how much poor it is to neighbors
like like Saudi Arabia, which

429
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,600
have managed to develop their,
their natural resource abundance

430
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,640
really, really well.
Pakistan hasn't managed to do

431
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,320
that.
They've been, you know, dragged

432
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,080
into a lot of conflict and these
sorts of things, so it's huge

433
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,400
for them.
Random facts with Maddie, when

434
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,720
you talked about the the the
resource size 3.8 billion tonnes

435
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:43,240
at .43% copper and .26g per
tonne gall, so 3.8 billion

436
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,440
tonnes, I looked up Escondida is
actually the resource now.

437
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,200
After all, the mining is still
28 billion tonnes and they've

438
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,000
already mined 38 million tons of
contained copper since 1990.

439
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,960
So like, this is big, but it
shows how big those other ones

440
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,320
are as well.
Absolutely to still.

441
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,760
Have that much there?
You, you get to the point here

442
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,080
where the reserve what what you
mentioned there measured an

443
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:07,960
indicator.
That's a 37 year mine life.

444
00:23:08,120 --> 00:23:08,800
Yeah.
I mean, yeah.

445
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:10,840
How much?
You shouldn't have to make it.

446
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:12,640
Yeah.
You don't need to make it too

447
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,240
much bigger.
It's coming from, I think 4 at

448
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,880
the moment, porphy deposits.
The initial feasibility was on

449
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,320
two.
Now they've sort of expanded it

450
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,320
and changed the the scope a
little bit.

451
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,400
So that's the latest we could
find.

452
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,560
But it is massive, just huge.
And I'm sure it'll just go on.

453
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,800
Who found it?
That'd be an interesting history

454
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,360
because always think who the
fuck would want to look for a

455
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,200
copper in Pakistan that someone
obviously thought to.

456
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:39,720
Yeah, I don't know the answer to
that.

457
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,600
It it wasn't always like it is
today.

458
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,120
You know, you could decades and
decades ago it it didn't have

459
00:23:46,120 --> 00:23:48,320
the same perception that it does
nowadays.

460
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,800
And I'll, I'll get in, in a
moment in to comments that Mark

461
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:56,760
Bristow made made on the area.
But yeah, you know, these

462
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,280
jurisdictional environments and
the ability for people to

463
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,920
explore changes over time and
you know, what it is right now

464
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,520
isn't what it once was.
So maybe it's more peaceful

465
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,000
times and people just thought
this looks a bit like the Andes.

466
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,400
Let's let's have a go.
Who would have thought Pakistan

467
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,160
would be more friendlier than
Mali?

468
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,200
Possibly.
I think you're absolutely right

469
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,360
right now.
For Barrick anyway, I.

470
00:24:18,120 --> 00:24:21,800
Remember listening to I think it
was Friedland like speak at

471
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,400
that, you know, the the
conference held in Riyadh, maybe

472
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,040
it was a year ago or two years
ago, but he's keen.

473
00:24:28,120 --> 00:24:29,520
He's keen.
I think he talks about, you

474
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,960
know, the best places in the
world to mine are actually where

475
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,640
you where you have where, where
it's like, you know, parts of

476
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,520
the subcontinent where it's like
a desert.

477
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,680
Not, not, not necessarily like
all these like water and all

478
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,200
that sort of stuff.
Because any environmental issues

479
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,440
and and the places where great,
you know, ore bodies are still

480
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,240
available to discover are under
a bunch of cover.

481
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,280
And you've got the recipe for
that in there.

482
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,320
Sort of you know that that
that's Saudi Arabian like about.

483
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,360
Yeah, especially where there
hasn't been heaps of development

484
00:24:56,360 --> 00:24:59,160
over the the past few decades.
And Friedland as well has a

485
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,040
investment there.
Ivanhoe Electric has done a

486
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,520
deal.
I think Martin owns 9.9%.

487
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,000
Yeah, because I've heard there
is a fuck load of metal in Saudi

488
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,520
Arabia, but to get the metal you
have to get rid of the oil

489
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,920
fields.
It's in the oil field area.

490
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,480
So what are they?
They're not going to go.

491
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,360
Oh we'll just the oil is their
money.

492
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,280
So there's once if the oil
finishes in parts, there is a

493
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,640
shit load of metal there to go
for once the oil gets

494
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,360
disassembled.
Hopefully the metal is not quite

495
00:25:28,360 --> 00:25:30,320
as deep as the the oil that you
wouldn't think.

496
00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:33,200
So yeah, surely you can do both
at the same time.

497
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,200
No, you can't.
Right?

498
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,920
Where are we up to?
This is exciting.

499
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,640
Lot of tons, Maddie.
That's what we're up to.

500
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,840
Oh, what do you think of?
And you think a lot of tons need

501
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,640
to be moved?
I think salt Bush contracted to

502
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,960
be licking their lips.
They sure would be 90 million

503
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,240
tons.
They could compliment MMS over

504
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,560
there, the Mon to mill
specialists I bloody by talking

505
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,800
about moving bulk amounts of
bloody tons of stuff.

506
00:26:00,120 --> 00:26:02,600
I called Locky Jones on
Christmas Day just to wish the

507
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,800
Salt Bush family Merry
Christmas, but they just come

508
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,720
off night shift whole and bloody
Santa's presents around all

509
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,160
fucking night.
That's how much like there's hey

510
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,600
is the salt Bush are the people
that do bulk bulk shit loads of

511
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:20,320
tons anywhere.
They bloody absolutely love it.

512
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,000
What do?
You think it's called salt salt

513
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,960
Bush because they like they'll
do it in the tough conditions.

514
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,240
It could be salty conditions and
made the drives through the Bush

515
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,440
get it done.
That's exactly how they come up

516
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,520
with.
Yeah. 50° heat, yeah, no problem

517
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:31,960
for them.
Oh.

518
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,040
Mate, they love it in that
purple band we were talking

519
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,600
about yesterday, mate.
And even random shit like road

520
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,480
construction, bloody Rd.
maintenance, playing equipment

521
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,200
hire, friggin what else we got
here.

522
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,400
Bulk earthworks, site rehab.
Just just remember, if

523
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,920
something's hard on your mind
site and you're getting pissed

524
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,680
off about something, use the
famous words GET fucking

525
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,000
SALTPUSH to do it. 360.
Five, I'll use those words.

526
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,040
And that's what they did.
Shout out to Daisy Milano.

527
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:00,560
They just kept that joint
humming.

528
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,000
So get him to get your joint
humming.

529
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:04,480
Go saltpush.
Go saltpush.

530
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,520
That's it.
All righty, let's.

531
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,200
Let's.
It's a.

532
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,440
Good sign.
Let's talk about the deal

533
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,000
itself.
This is why we're we're talking

534
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,240
about all of this.
So news emerged and it's not

535
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,000
been a massive secret.
It's been talked about for some

536
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,240
time that Menara would buy 10 to
20%.

537
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,360
They valued the lot here at US,
$9 billion.

538
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,080
They'd be buying that stake from
the Pakistan government.

539
00:27:28,360 --> 00:27:32,320
Barrick not interested in
diluting their stake anymore and

540
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,040
the, the ballpark dollar figures
we're talking about is half a

541
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,200
billion US to $1 billion.
So a bit ambiguous what that

542
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,440
ultimately ends up being.
But the Pakistani petroleum

543
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,400
minister did say at the
conference you spoke about just

544
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,720
last week, Trav, that he expects
this Menara investment to be

545
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,680
wrapped up over the next two
quarters.

546
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,680
So something's going to happen
there.

547
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,920
It's going to happen quite soon.
Be keen to see what it ends up

548
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,400
coming at it and I'm also
interested to see if there's any

549
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,640
sort of off take or any deals
like this that are tied up into

550
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,440
it because that is very much a
part of the strategy of Menara

551
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,880
as well.
Pakistan and more broadly the

552
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,360
Middle East has done these
downstream deals in the past.

553
00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:14,560
They sort of famously did it a
lot with aluminium, obviously a

554
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,640
super energy intensive
downstream sector to be working

555
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:19,960
in.
Pakistan or Saudi?

556
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:21,000
Saudi.
Arabia.

557
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,680
This was in Saudi Arabia, but
also places like Qatar and the

558
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,680
Middle East more broadly have
attracted a lot of companies to

559
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,640
come in because they have the
abundance of energy and they can

560
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,960
do that.
And I wouldn't be surprised if

561
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,400
these guys are seriously
considering doing stuff like

562
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,120
that in the copper space and
other base metal space.

563
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,320
You know, not not in a bad part
of the world where they're

564
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,560
located either, especially if
the resources are coming from

565
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,600
relatively nearby.
So that could be a part of the

566
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,920
deal when it ultimately comes up
too.

567
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,160
So I think Pakistan, the
government are potentially going

568
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,360
to have 5% left in the project,
but they might take a bill now

569
00:28:58,240 --> 00:28:59,960
is that is that sort of what's.
Going to happen.

570
00:28:59,960 --> 00:29:01,520
I mean you.
Could think, I think you could

571
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:02,840
think that like, yeah.
Yeah.

572
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:07,720
But I mean, remember 50% is
really owned by various Pakistan

573
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,640
entities.
Those those enterprises I'm sure

574
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,720
are majority sort of state
enterprises.

575
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:16,600
Yeah, OK as well.
So.

576
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,240
It's like a good chunk.
Yeah.

577
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,280
And then there's big royalties
that they have on it as well.

578
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,720
So they're going to maintain a
healthy, healthy interest and

579
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:27,000
they need to be able to fund a
portion.

580
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,520
It's not all free carried
either.

581
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:29,960
So that plays a big role in this
too.

582
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,280
They've got a lot of sovereign
debt right now, a lot owed to

583
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,640
Saudi Arabia itself as well.
So being able to fund your

584
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,520
portion of the CapEx is central
to this as well.

585
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,200
I see.
That but they that's why I think

586
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,280
they they sell down the portion
that's not free carried.

587
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,680
Yeah, I was about to.
Sell yeah.

588
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,880
So if they said at 10% they're.
Free carried yeah, effectively,

589
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,040
yeah, yeah, yeah.
The the it's kind of just a

590
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,600
staggering kind of project value
to think of though, right.

591
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,800
Like you could call it, call it
whatever, you know, US 1 billion

592
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,760
for 10%.
So it's what the value like US 9

593
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,920
billion or there about a $10
billion undeveloped project like

594
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,200
yeah, that's that's.
US.

595
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:09,920
Huge.
Amazing.

596
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,600
Yeah, it's amazing.
In Pakistan in that part, I

597
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,040
mean, just to get comfortable
with putting what's going to

598
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:20,080
total US roughly 9 billion in
CapEx into the ground, you'd

599
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,840
have to do a lot of work over a
long period of time, a lot of

600
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,640
bloody meetings to get
comfortable with that sort of

601
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,040
investment.
It's yeah, it's, it's impressive

602
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,920
that they've got this far along.
And to, to round out on the,

603
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,360
the, the jurisdiction, Bristol
made some really interesting

604
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,720
comments, I think in October of
last year that we should play

605
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,880
right now regarding how he and
how Barrick see the emergence of

606
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:45,480
Pakistan and, and this project.
And then quickly, can you update

607
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,080
us on the progress at Rico deck
in Pakistan?

608
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,960
So Rico deck is super exciting.
This is like the, the, the early

609
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,800
days in Chile, you know, the
Escondida discoveries and so on.

610
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:58,960
You can, you can walk across the
porphyries.

611
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,920
There's more than one,
significantly more than one.

612
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:07,520
It's a, it's a, it's a, it's a
real endowment for the people of

613
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,920
Balochistan and then the greater
Pakistan.

614
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,680
Very interesting.
Is there?

615
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,040
How much downstream copper is in
Saudi?

616
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,560
Not much at the moment.
Not much at the moment, yeah,

617
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:24,120
but some.
Jeez, I guess, I guess none to

618
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,720
be honest.
I mean, if you're going to, if

619
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,960
you're going to build some and
the way they sort of do it, they

620
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,160
build it kind of big.
But don't, don't quote me on

621
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:32,680
that.
Yeah, not totally sure.

622
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,960
Very interesting the rise the
rise of the Middle East.

623
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,760
I was just going to.
Mention that once Japan and

624
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,280
South Korea take off, we're
heading to the Middle East.

625
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,480
Mike, you say kind of jokingly,
but that is part of the reason

626
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,240
why I wanted to talk about this
today because people talk about

627
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,440
Middle East and often group
North Africa in there too, but

628
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,120
they're getting really serious
about this.

629
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,080
I mentioned that Martin was set
up 25 odd years ago, but if you

630
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,880
look as a rough proxy, what the
share price has done the last

631
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:03,880
three or four years, it's 4 or
5X the amount of dollars that

632
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,720
they're putting in.
They've got this whole Saudi

633
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,080
Vision 2030 project.
They're getting really, really

634
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,040
serious about this.
And it started with aluminium a

635
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,720
little while ago, but now it's
coming across the mineral

636
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,880
spectrum.
They're, they're less bogged

637
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,840
down by bureaucracy than we are
in the West.

638
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,920
And even that they're working
pretty actively to to cut it

639
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,440
down.
So I think it's really, really

640
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,640
impressive actually what they're
doing at that big conference.

641
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,720
You mentioned, Trev, last year
they upgraded the mineral

642
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,920
wealth, whatever that's what it
means of their country.

643
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,240
They doubled it to $2.5
trillion.

644
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,560
So that they clearly think
there's a lot in their country

645
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,120
and they said they want to
attract US $200 billion in

646
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,800
investment by the end of the
decade.

647
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:46,840
And we speak about it all the
time.

648
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,840
The investment dollars in this
industry are pretty competitive.

649
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,440
They go to the places where
there's less bureaucracy, where

650
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,880
there's less delays, where
there's less red tape, where the

651
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,720
investment environment is stable
and competitive.

652
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,920
And that should be a bit of a
warning to to us in Australia, I

653
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,840
reckon if we, you know, continue
to go down the track in some

654
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,600
parts, obviously we're mostly a
pretty great place, but there's

655
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,520
been some, you know, less great
things to talk about in recent

656
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:12,800
times.
If we keep going down that

657
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,160
track, we'll become a much less
competitive environment.

658
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,880
You hear BHB, Rio, Glencore, all
these companies talk about it

659
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,560
every other week over the past
few years.

660
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,280
And it should be a serious sort
of concern for for politicians

661
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,000
and stuff in the country because
you need to attract companies to

662
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,440
continue to invest in the
country.

663
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,720
Otherwise they'll go away.
They'll go to places where they

664
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,120
can invest stably in these sorts
of things.

665
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,480
And the Saudis are are working
hard to attract that money.

666
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,400
So it's a really interesting
broader conversation, I think.

667
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,640
And they're working hard to
repair their like it's all about

668
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,520
the image of Saudi Arabia.
So the, the, the, the push for

669
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,760
Saudi to repair their image
after the Khashoggi thing and

670
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,320
all that like it's so they're,
you would could anticipate

671
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,280
they're going to be friendly to
work with for those companies.

672
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,280
You're spot on mate.
They're working super hard to

673
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,760
clean up that image.
That's why they do things like

674
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,840
the golf they've bought, the
bought, they've won the rights

675
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,239
to host the World Cup in 2034,
just like Qatar did.

676
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,400
A lot of this is to fix the the
image and they're going to put a

677
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,120
lot of money towards that.
Obviously there's some

678
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,520
preconceived ideas what people
have about working in the Middle

679
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,679
East and, and all these sorts of
things, which are, you know, a

680
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:24,360
conversation worth having as
well.

681
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,360
But they're working hard at
changing how the country is

682
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,760
perceived and how the region is
perceived as well.

683
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,880
Yeah, even just like the
availability of capital is like

684
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:37,520
an interesting thing to ponder.
I mean, there's been a real

685
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,320
lackluster in, you know, like
availability of new capital to

686
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,320
invest in large developments is
she's been pretty capital

687
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:46,719
constrained.
A lot of the active capital is

688
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,920
kind of vanished, but this is
like 1 area where it's very

689
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,880
large and kind of active pool of
capital to deploy.

690
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,880
If Arimco can sponsor the F1, I
can't tell you why they can't.

691
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:00,240
Cornerstone money or more.
Why not?

692
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,440
You want to fix your image.
I'll help with the Saudi image

693
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:13,240
for cash.
Oh, right, on to the bloody.

694
00:35:13,240 --> 00:35:16,120
Let's go on to let's go on to
mineral sands.

695
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:20,360
OK, I've learned a bit about
mineral sands lately.

696
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,280
Good work, Maddie.
And I'm like you, I remember

697
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:24,400
you're talking about it last
year.

698
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,640
I just didn't understand it.
Yeah.

699
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,840
You know what I do now?
Right.

700
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:30,600
Take it away.
Iluka, what's going on?

701
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,800
I just thought I'd do a quick,
yeah, a quick one on Iluka from

702
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,000
from me because they're that the
only, the only, yeah, quarterly

703
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,200
release I saw out in the last
couple of days.

704
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:42,160
It's gone down, down 8%.
And why is that?

705
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,560
It's mineral sands revenue was
290,000,000 bucks for the

706
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,080
quarter, about 15% lower than
what the market was expecting.

707
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:53,720
And while Lucas mineral sands
business for they, they, they

708
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,000
well, what they said for 2024,
the whole of 2024, it generated

709
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:01,560
$252 million of operating cash
flow, but with a working capital

710
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:06,120
build of 225 million across
that, that full calendar year.

711
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,480
Now you read working capital
build of 225 million anything if

712
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,160
you aren't super familiar with
the mineral science business,

713
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:12,840
you probably think, what the
fuck does that mean?

714
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,000
How can you have a working
capital build of 225 million?

715
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,960
It's bizarre, right?
But the way I think about it

716
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,440
with these niche commodity
producers is a working capital

717
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,760
build is it's just a build of
inventory or, or, you know, work

718
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:26,920
in progress.
It's like, you know, maybe you

719
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,360
did part of the refining
process, but all of it or you

720
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,520
actually did produce some end
product, but you haven't you

721
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,840
haven't sold it.
And what you observe with these,

722
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,760
you know, niche commodity
producers and they'll build

723
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,800
inventories when the market is
weak to to try avoid

724
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,160
oversupplying it because if you
sell into it, at that point, you

725
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,280
kill the price even more and
maybe even like incrementally

726
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,560
might not have have a margin
anymore, all that sort of stuff.

727
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,880
So you withhold it, but it's
it's sticky to just throttle

728
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,440
producing straight away.
So you just build, build

729
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,080
inventories?
Sounds like an industrious

730
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:56,560
business.
It's just got their warehouse

731
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,240
full and they can't sell any of
the stuff.

732
00:36:58,240 --> 00:37:02,440
Yeah, and.
Like TLAI?

733
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,880
The hydroxide yeah, I mean the
the the difference symbol

734
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,640
similar to what like, you know,
lithium might have been ages ago

735
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,800
and what album are still tried
to do with you know, but but but

736
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,440
now the lithium mark is much
more fragmented.

737
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,400
You've got more more parties.
But I, I Lucas, you know, a

738
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,600
really large contributor to the
whole, you know, mineral,

739
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,120
mineral sands production.
So their incremental production

740
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,400
moves to the needle a lot and
they're pretty conscious not to,

741
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:30,360
not to tip the market either
way.

742
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,240
So they'll throttle and swing
production.

743
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,040
That's all kind of, you know,
swing production strategies

744
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,160
inherent to their, their
business model.

745
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,160
And it goes all the way down to
the infrastructure.

746
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:45,640
They even have, you know, like
if you when you drive down South

747
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,560
and you go past where they've
got those synthetic kilns,

748
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,080
synthetic retail kilns.
Now there's two of them and

749
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,920
they, but they treat one of them
as like a, a swing kill and it's

750
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,760
like on or on or off.
But which one is the swing kill

751
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:00,920
kind of changes over time as
well.

752
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,520
But they've got two of them.
Have you ever driven down South

753
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,680
and seen both of them on?
It's a pretty rare event, but

754
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,760
that's the purpose is like, you
know, you've got the ability to

755
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,440
to produce more when the
market's really good and.

756
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,760
That's the ilmenol isn't.
It that's that synthetic routile

757
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,360
is a routile product, not
ilmenol.

758
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:17,760
It's not.
It's a different product.

759
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,360
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
Doesn't bode well for free cash

760
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,520
over 2024.
That was, I think, a pretty

761
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,840
gnarly 350 odd million loss.
Yeah, yeah.

762
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,640
And that, that working capital
build means the market's been

763
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:34,040
been weak, right.
So they, which again I'll look

764
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:35,560
at echo in the commentary on the
market.

765
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:39,520
They say in China, the ceramic
industry gradually scaled back

766
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:43,080
production with many factories
closing for a period and not

767
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,560
planning to resume production
till post Chinese New Year.

768
00:38:46,240 --> 00:38:48,880
They did say the residential
property market has shown signs

769
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,120
of stabilizing, Doesn't mean
it's growing, just stabilizing

770
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,840
that that, yeah, I mean that
swing nature to their

771
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,320
production.
It also means there's a lot of

772
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,760
volatility in the, in the
workforce from time to time.

773
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:04,400
And you know, Lucas case they,
they, they said 130 roles have

774
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,320
been removed across operations
and support functions, which

775
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:12,000
will save them $20 million for
2025, which is, yeah, pretty,

776
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,080
pretty chunky.
I I'll refrain from ranting

777
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,440
about any other today, but you
guys know what I what I think of

778
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,320
that too, so.
Yeah, sucks for those 330

779
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:20,880
people.
Yeah.

780
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:22,560
Have we ever talked about
sovereign?

781
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,400
No, not much, but that's
interesting.

782
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,320
It's like 440 odd $1,000,000
cap.

783
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,400
Today they put up an updated.
Optimized PFS.

784
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,440
PFS Really.
She's a bit of a she's a fucking

785
00:39:33,240 --> 00:39:37,160
Northeastern light and yeah,
Rutol in in honor of the great

786
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:41,000
Sierra Rutol.
Yeah, but yeah, natural Rutol.

787
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,640
Interesting, Interesting market.
Difference is a super

788
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,840
interesting one, especially with
that Rio Tinto investment.

789
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,880
Yeah, yeah, Rio's got their foot
on it for sure.

790
00:39:49,240 --> 00:39:50,560
Yeah.
Things are kind of happening,

791
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:52,080
yeah.
Slime City, Yeah.

792
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,840
Yeah.
And yeah, just it's Malawi is

793
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,800
the thing that holds people up.
Yeah, bit of a a different

794
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,760
African jurisdiction.
It's not one we've spoken about

795
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,440
an awful lot.
But yeah, fingers crossed it

796
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,560
keeps going in the right
direction there because the the

797
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,080
market has been liking it like
you said, Maddie.

798
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:12,440
Yeah, it's very good, right?
We got get on the pits with CRE

799
00:40:13,720 --> 00:40:17,720
and thank you to CRE for sponsor
Lick of me Lips thinking about a

800
00:40:17,720 --> 00:40:21,080
point with the CRE crew.
Couple other thank yous mate.

801
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,560
Oh mate, the the the people that
are going to shake up Pakistan

802
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,960
mineral mining services and salt
Bush, they're going to be all

803
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:33,680
and fucking 90 million tonne
before lunch ever easy.

804
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,720
So grounded out there.
Well, let's get a grounded camp

805
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,880
over and tell you what, if I'm
going to Rico decode on a

806
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,600
grounded camp, mate, Sambit
ground sport probably won't need

807
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,640
it over there.
But look, Sambit could give you

808
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,760
something bloody.
We'll we'll get it insured.

809
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:54,240
But Rico Deak insured broke by
CRE K drill mate look bit of

810
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:58,000
bloody infill drilling bit RC
drilling by K drill Rico deak

811
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,320
mate.
I reckon they could find another

812
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,520
Rico Deak with a dash sat Geo
fizz survey like.

813
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,640
Like Presto said, they're all
around there.

814
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,520
They're all around.
Days that we'll find them for.

815
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,280
You.
Yeah, it's well done and

816
00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:14,440
anywhere that needs some fucking
get wet bladders a bit freaking

817
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,280
Rico too.
About 6000 of them over there.

818
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,720
Hooteroo hooteroo.
Information contained in this

819
00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:23,440
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

820
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,080
take into account the
objectives, financial situation,

821
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,160
or needs of any particular
person.

822
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,480
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

823
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,560
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

824
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:38,240
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.