Are Index Inclusions an Alpha Opportunity?

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Rhino money miners, welcome back
to another week.

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The markets are just bloody
spinning in Turnbull.

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The only thing that probably
could detect which way it's

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going is a N seeking gyro of of
Axis tech Axis mining

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technology.
They are that would give

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probably the most accurate
representation of the future of

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anything as the trusted advisor
of Trillal survey

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instrumentation.
To something to this Maddie, the

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money mine pod's going to employ
one of these to you have to get

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some alpha.
Oh, these tough times.

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Gyro call you call you idol.
Good for the jewellers, good for

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the jewellers, a good for good
for just us.

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This good.
We're going to talk about a $24

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billion bloody buyout briefly
today and this could be the next

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one after we get our hands
involved.

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Boys, what's going on?
What are we?

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We've got a bit of a raw dog
episode again of a bit of

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everything.
Got a couple of emissions and

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inclusions for the ISX 201
notable one that we discussed

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last year.
Yeah.

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There's a, there's a few there.
I mean, I mean, there's a.

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It's 1 notable 1 based on the
context of it, I think.

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Yeah.
Which is pretty cool, aren't

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there?
Yeah, totally.

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And there's like a couple of of
of often the ones that go in in

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the index and out of the index.
I reckon resources stocks have a

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have a big representation in
them because the cyclical and

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things look good and then
they're not.

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So quite often those like the
ones that go in and out and get

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spotted out of of resources
stocks.

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I'm going to talk about all of
them.

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Yeah, very good bloody and boys
have taken the bull by the horns

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on the uranium again.
The deal there's a there's a

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vote on tonight for the vision
Paladin deal and a couple of

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variations from some court
orders and stuff.

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So that's going to be extremely
interesting.

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I thought I'd collide together
some of the comments I've heard

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about WNA from a lot of the
media sources out there that

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were there, so I just see what
bloody much at the side but.

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It's as good as Eyes on the
Ground is having you tell it

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second.
Hand pretty much it's like I've

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been there effectively and
predictive.

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Yeah, yeah.
I mean like this is this is

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Friday, but.
The bloody.

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Bit gonna talk a bit more about
the.

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Chunk, yeah, very good.
Right later away, boys, Isex 200

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inclusions, the rebalances,
who's in, who's out?

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What's going on?
It's interesting.

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I, I reckon like just how stocks
trade around the announcement

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of, you know, the S&P index
rebalancing.

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Like, you know, I'm trying to,
I'm still trying to learn a bit

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about, you know, these events to
see if they're kind of largely

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priced in.
These are like, you know, do

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people know ahead of time, have
they done the numbers?

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Do they know that certain like
stocks are going in the index

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and therefore is it already
priced in or not?

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Like I, I'm just too kind of
confused around all the trading

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dynamics around these index
inclusions or or, you know,

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removals.
And I'm fascinated by the

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strategies that, you know, the
hedge funds around the

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rebalancing kind of employee.
I think like if they anticipate

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it's going to go in, they'll buy
it beforehand.

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No yeah, they'll sell it into
the event, but and hopefully

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make some you know some some
margin in the process.

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But you know I'm still I'm still
trying to figure out how all

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that work and works in the.
The stocks that will be added to

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the ASX 200 and 300 were
announced late last week and so

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today's the first trading day
since that announcement.

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The resources stocks added to
the ASX 200 we've got two of

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them.
Firstly, West gold.

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Now remember if you remember in
the proposed deal or merger with

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Kora, a huge selling point of
that combination because it

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didn't have synergies was the
fact that they'd get this, you

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know, enhanced index ETF passive
money buying because they'll

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probably be eligible for the ASX
200.

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Well, here it.
Is there there's $500 million of

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synergies if you record?
Well, at least that selling

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point is, yeah, there's truth to
it because they are, they're

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they're being added to the ASX
200.

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And then the other one is
Yankle.

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Ding, Ding, Ding.
I own the stock.

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So Yankel, this is this is an
interesting one because you

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know, they're they're a big
market cap company.

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I think they're, you know, sort
of top 80 kind of by market cap

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on the ASX, but they've remained
outside of the ASX 200 and even

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the 300 because they've, they've
never had sufficient kind of

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free float to be eligible for
index inclusion.

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And in the last quarter, gone
from the second largest

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shareholder Cinder, they sold
down a little bit more and that

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kind of, you know, gave them
sufficient free float to finally

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get this index inclusion.
So they'll be added not just to

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the ASX 200, but the 300 kind of
at the same time and grounding

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out the, the changes in the in
the 201 resource stock is being

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removed from the index and
that's strike energy.

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And I, you know, I think there's
an interesting conversation for

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us to have at some point about
the companies that slip into the

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ASX 200 when they are quite
ready and, and, you know, when

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they aren't quite ready that,
you know, they don't go in with

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enough momentum or, or they're
not growing fast enough, or they

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kind of get in on, you know,
dubious reasons or whatever.

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They often just get spotted out
in a, you know, in a, in six

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months or years time or
whatever.

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And one observation I would make
is it kind of gets pretty ugly

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for these companies that, that
get spotted out sort of, you

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know, because they prematurely
got, got put in Strike energy

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sort of fits that category that,
you know, they've had a pretty,

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pretty tough year ever since
kind of going into the index.

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I think, you know, year to date
they're down like 63%.

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And like, you know, other, other
companies you can just think of

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when they spot out, like I think
of think of Chalice's chart,

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think of Siona like come in as a
use of them.

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They're often like these, you
know, retail stocks or whatever

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and they kind of kind of get bit
up and get big enough and go on

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the index and then you know.
It's a virtuous cycle on the way

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up, and the same thing on the
way.

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Down and like on the way down,
like they're, they're obviously

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getting removed because they're
going down.

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But then as soon as they're
removed, all those shares have

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got to be dumped as well, 100%
away from the ATF file.

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So it's like a double, you've
already gone down, but you might

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go down more because of the
extra selling pressure. 100%

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like that's a that's a good
point because yeah, you get spot

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out and then something of these
ETFs, the passive money, they

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still own a decent chunk of the
shares, right?

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Like, you know, whatever the the
vanguards of the world or

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whoever they still are still
own, you know, a couple percent

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and and they're kind of mandated
to, you know, progressively keep

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selling at a time when there's
probably where the buyers in

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some of these situations,
because the tide has turned the

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retail that bought on the way
out, they ain't buying it on the

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way down.
And you know, kind of takes a

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lot for for the instos to get
kind of yeah, excited again, so.

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It was an expression that I used
to love in the in the dealing

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room when someone would ask you
why is the stock down and they'd

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just say more sellers than
buyers.

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I'd love to know about like when
you're getting in the I see the

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200 and 300 ones is probably
especially the 200 in in

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comparison to when you hear the
Goldies getting in the JDX

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locker.
I remember like there was talk

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Bellevue are about to be
included where they're going to

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buy all those shares from.
It's tightly held and probably a

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case again when he said it might
have been priced in because it

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didn't really do anything upon
indexing conclude inclusion.

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But I assume that ASX 200 would
have a lot more ETF money behind

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it compared to the JDX and the
JDX J, So there's a lot there.

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There'd be a lot of things that
have to buy for the ASX 200.

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Yeah, I.
Was going to say, if you think

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of like the proliferation of
the, the pod shopping investors,

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right, like, you know, we've all
heard about how massively these

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pod shops are growing.
Well, each, each pod shops are

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like millenniums growing
massively, blah, blah, blah.

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But the way Millennium scales
is, you know, each individual

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pod has completely independent
strategies from every, every

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other pod and they don't, no one
crosses notes.

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So like all of these sort of
rebalancing events are

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opportunities for, you know,
these pods to basically seek out

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alpha and they'll, they'll try
and do the numbers and I think

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anticipate it by head of time
and then sell into the event.

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And so net, net, you kind of
don't get these kind of crazy

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price changes because someone's
trying to capitalise on, on

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these, you know, rebalancing
ahead of time.

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That's my dumb interpretation.
But I love someone smiling.

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And the fun is I've spoken to,
they're like, it is their job to

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know, yeah, when things are
going in and out before.

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Like they don't trade it the day
before.

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Like that is what they do.
They they just literally trade

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stocks every day.
Yeah.

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Regal's another name that comes
to mind.

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There was a big write up in the
AFR not not too long ago about

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them strategizing, you know,
picking out index inclusions.

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And this obviously hits
companies that have less

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liquidity way harder.
So there's much more room for

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volatility if there's just less
shares traded, you know, perhaps

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a a smaller free float, you
know, or you know, you've got

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directors, founders, whoever of
the company not trading their

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stock as much, then there's less
to buy most of stock even more.

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So now I think I think
interesting like Westgard, if

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speaking about them
specifically, like whether it's

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priced in or not, you look at
they've, they've kept going

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there, you know, up at 3 bucks.
I don't know what they are

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today.
Yeah, well, that's in my in my

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quest to try and figure out, you
know, these events priced in or

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not.
Let's look at the I compare

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Westgard with Yankel, right?
Watch the Spark replay on Open

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down 3%, which is pretty
interesting.

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Compare that to the Spark replay
of Yankel and open up 3%.

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So 1 went up 3%, one went down
3%, which basically leaves me

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with no takeaways about, you
know, index inclusions being

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priced in or not because they
went different ways.

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Would you argue maybe the Yankel
1 wasn't the the Westco 1 was

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known?
Probably that was going to

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happen whereas Yankel was like
once a reader.

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Oh shit.
Oh yeah, they would have.

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That would have been a very hard
one to gauge.

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Yeah, there was ambiguity about
whether there was enough sold

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down.
And I think the, the actual

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inclusion calculation requires,
I think it's like, you know,

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this, this there's a liquidity
threshold and so that requires,

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you know, a bunch of volume to
be done on the ASX, not the

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other exchange where they're on.
So I I think there was ambiguity

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about, you know, if Yankel
would, would, would get in and

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if it also would reach enough
for just the 300 or the 200 as

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well.
Yeah, but there you go.

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It's sort of, it probably did
catch people off, off, off and

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it came off 20% because they
didn't pay dividend keep in mind

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as well.
So they they might have been

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primed for a surprise to the
upside as well.

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I don't know.
I'm getting into realm of

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technical analysis now.
It's not a car and I'll just

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I'll be so interested to follow
this year and Carl's story in

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the next six months of that, you
know the the potential M and a

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what role Ferb plays in that M
and a as a child, even though

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it's O 6 listed to Chinese owned
stock like that's gonna be

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that's gonna be fascinating or
reckon whatever happens there.

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Yeah.
And zooming out on the the 300,

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there was a good few movements
as well that you picked up on.

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Yeah, exactly.
So you know, if you just look at

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the sorry added to the ASX 300,
you had Yankel obviously, WA 1,

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Spartan Capstone, copper, Ding
Ding Ding for a couple of those

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names for JD and myself getting
the flick, Core Lithium, Grange

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resources, Renascore, Telga and
Teracom.

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00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,160
So, yeah, I think like one day
I'd love to interview someone

223
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,400
who can break down the, the
strategies around sort of, you

224
00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:45,440
know, these index additions and
removals.

225
00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,440
And I'll, I'll be fascinated to
go, you know, deep into the

226
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,480
broader impacts, even if if of
passive penetration on our, our

227
00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,240
capital markets.
I, I personally, you know,

228
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:59,200
subscribe to the, to the, to the
view that the, these passive

229
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,600
strategies and the growth of
passive strategies, you know,

230
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,640
has had some wacky impacts on
stock markets.

231
00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,040
And as a result, you know, there
are interesting opportunities

232
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,040
for active, active investors,
you know, and punters alike.

233
00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,360
So if if you can, yeah, deduce
it.

234
00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,520
I think if mate, if anyone's
retired from funds management

235
00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,480
and doesn't care about sharing
secrets, come give us a buzz.

236
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:20,960
That's the hardest thing to get
the info like this.

237
00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,480
They're like, well, I can't tell
everyone, everyone it was.

238
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,000
Capstone's an interesting one,
right, Because if you, if you

239
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,640
look at the whole market cap,
it's, you know, almost the size

240
00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:31,600
of Yanko.
It's a sort of, I think 7 1/2

241
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,000
billion dollar company.
Yeah, yeah.

242
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,840
But only a a portion of that is
on the ASX.

243
00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:37,640
It's all about the ASX.
Yeah, of course.

244
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:43,040
The Cdr, yeah, but I reckon
Speaking of the 200, another

245
00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,800
inclusion or it can verify,
might even IPO into the ASX 200

246
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,800
just straight off the bat.
Straight into the ASX.

247
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,760
System Alright, let's not stop
at the 200.

248
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:59,440
Nah Nah ASX 20 but you know the
IO is bloody booked out.

249
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,760
Verify IO booked out, right?
It's like getting kids into a

250
00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,920
private school like it's bloody.
You gotta get in line to get a

251
00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:11,480
piece of this unbelievable tech
and and the bloody without the

252
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:16,600
OG with along with the OG bloody
verified tech coupled with the

253
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,880
AI arm of the business boys on
on they could even probably

254
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:22,840
they're probably going to start
building their own data centres

255
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,360
and nuclear reactors to support
all this bloody AI.

256
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,760
This could this could be the
biggest tech company to IPO if

257
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,840
they choose to do so.
Like I mentioned it at the

258
00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,880
start.
Yeah, the air trunk got taken

259
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,440
out for 24 billion cash.
Yeah, by Blackstone.

260
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,800
Yeah, they're by a computer now,
or after nine years in

261
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,640
operation.
They weren't publicly listed

262
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,400
Maddie, so Verify could get get
the takeover without even IPO.

263
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,120
There's options, Fair.
You could IPO.

264
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,800
You get 24 billion this way.
This is where Verify is heading.

265
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,440
I just feel honoured to be on
the journey with them.

266
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,080
Yeah, give them a buzz screen at
verify.com.

267
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:57,480
That'd.
Be a guy, call on it.

268
00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,960
Oh mate, you don't want to have
to send your kids to public

269
00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:03,040
schools if just because you
didn't take action to get them

270
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,200
enrolled when they were in year
1.

271
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,360
Like you know what I'm saying?
Like think of it that way.

272
00:13:08,680 --> 00:13:14,240
That's how you should treat
verify right the fission paladin

273
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,720
vote which has been extended to
tonight, which was previously

274
00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,000
going to happen earlier this
month I think it was or late

275
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,680
late last month.
Sorry yeah got extended word on

276
00:13:25,680 --> 00:13:28,560
the decline was they couldn't
get the votes was the most

277
00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:33,960
likely reason Can't confirm that
but what's going on We're in a

278
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:38,680
talk about as you said to me the
other week Trav if you shit

279
00:13:38,680 --> 00:13:42,000
markets are real bad for M and I
to get out of the.

280
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,840
Volatility is hard, yeah.
Just you need stability, yeah.

281
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,800
But well, I suppose, yeah, if it
goes the other way too much and

282
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:49,720
rides like now, we'll keep it.
Thanks.

283
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:51,200
Exactly.
Yeah, volatility kill.

284
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,040
Yeah, volatility in time kill
deals.

285
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,360
Yeah, absolutely.
So I think yeah, you spot on,

286
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,600
Maddie.
The, the, the clear reason why

287
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,040
you know, one would assume that
the deal vote didn't go ahead at

288
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,960
the end of month was that they
couldn't get the vote.

289
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,720
So kind of interesting to your
point there, Trev, on the the

290
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:10,760
volatility got a little chart
here which indexes the stocks

291
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,040
together.
You can kind of get a gauge of

292
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,760
the relative performance.
So they've both come down

293
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,960
markedly over the past couple
months.

294
00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:22,240
Fission now trading around 7475
cents, they were buck 35 just a

295
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,480
couple months ago And Paladin
they hit a high of almost $18

296
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,400
about four months ago, now
trading at 8:50.

297
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,800
So both of them are off a a long
way.

298
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,480
And to to put it in a bit of
context, we just Chuck up a

299
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,440
chart of the Sprott Uranium
Miners ETF.

300
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,640
Now you can see that's also come
off 35 odd percent since May.

301
00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,680
So the whole space is getting
getting beaten up.

302
00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,400
Yeah.
So vote votes tonight, a 10:00

303
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,360
AM Pacific Time.
Yeah, yeah, which is 1:00 AM

304
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,160
Perth time.
That's where did them, yeah.

305
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:58,160
Did the charm on Yeah.
So it's, it's interesting to

306
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,840
kind of see how things are
balanced and see it, some of

307
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:05,240
the, the actions that's taken
place over the past few days and

308
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,600
past couple weeks that you know,
a clear indication that that

309
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,800
vision and the, the proxy
solicitors are working hard to,

310
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,040
to get the votes required.
So as a quick reminder, they

311
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,400
need 66.6% of votes cast by
shareholders.

312
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:24,080
They need 66.6% of votes cast by
shareholders and option holders

313
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:28,560
classed together, and they need
a simple majority of votes by

314
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:32,480
minority shareholders.
Now the record date was July

315
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,080
19th, in case you're thinking
can someone just go and buy them

316
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,400
up and get the deal over the
line?

317
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,400
I thought one of those, one of
those conditions which was the

318
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,120
the combination of shareholders
and option holders measured

319
00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,720
together did was there was there
a court interim order which

320
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,240
basically kind of, you know,
changed, changed that.

321
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,960
So that, that is the interesting
news that's kind of come about

322
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,760
in the in the past couple days
and the, the language is quite

323
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,440
ambiguous.
So I think we're going to maybe

324
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,520
sling out a few more questions
than answers right now, but

325
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:07,960
we'll, we'll flash up what the
the news wire that Vision put up

326
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:09,840
says.
Now they got a ruling from the

327
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,040
Supreme Court of British
Columbia saying it had granted

328
00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:18,440
in and amongst a few other
points, that for the exercise of

329
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:22,080
all outstanding options of
fission such that the holders of

330
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:26,200
the options would become holders
of common shares of fission.

331
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,120
Now that language doesn't mean
an awful lot to me.

332
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:33,560
That's that's kind of confusing.
But I think the takeaway is that

333
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:38,280
they are encouraging or perhaps
forcing options holders to

334
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,280
convert to become shareholders
to vote.

335
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,240
Now, as a, as a reminder, there
was 856 million chairs

336
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:50,040
outstanding and 71.8 million
options outstanding that were

337
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,240
eligible to vote.
So that there were a few more

338
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,640
options, but a few of them can't
vote in this one.

339
00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:59,960
So I think, you know, rather
than getting bogged down in the

340
00:16:59,960 --> 00:17:03,960
weeds, looking at what the
actions are doing and kind of

341
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,440
saying is the the better
analysis to kind of make.

342
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,440
And I think it's clear to me
that Fission are working hard to

343
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,960
get every single vote that they
can over the line.

344
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:19,480
And yeah, well, it's trying to
figure out right, If that's, if

345
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,920
they're trying to make all
these, if you want, if you're

346
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,800
wanting the option holders to.
Yeah, because it doesn't

347
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,840
explicitly say that those
options won't be counted unless

348
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,200
they're converted.
No.

349
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,200
And that's the confusing thing.
And the question that people

350
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,760
might have is how many of the
options are are in the money,

351
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:37,880
right?
Because you're not really

352
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,600
incentivised to convert them if
you're not in the money.

353
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,960
And you can see from the the
little chart will flash up now

354
00:17:45,360 --> 00:17:51,040
all bar sort of 21 million of
that 72 ish million below the

355
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,760
current offer price.
If you were to, to sort of

356
00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:58,800
convert it by looking at what
the Paladin share price is right

357
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,880
now and that, you know, all the,
in the money ones, if you're

358
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:07,040
just counting them, that would
equate to 5.7% of ordinary

359
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:11,680
shares out there right now.
So I mean, perhaps another

360
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,080
inference to kind of make is are
they thinking that all the

361
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,680
options holders out there, they
got the options that have lower

362
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,480
exercise prices because they
were, you know, further back in

363
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,040
time, they're more likely to
vote in favour of the deal.

364
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,960
And the options holders who
picked up the options later that

365
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:34,760
have, you know, a $1.25 price,
their lessons entivized actually

366
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,200
exercise them.
So they're not going to be

367
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,280
voting in favour of the deal.
So that would assume that the

368
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,480
options that aren't in the money
won't be able to vote.

369
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,560
That would be a bit of a change
on the original terms.

370
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,320
But again, I think we're
throwing out a few more

371
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:52,160
questions and answers.
Yeah, yeah, it's, I am bloody

372
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,440
confused too.
I won't, I won't lie.

373
00:18:55,360 --> 00:18:58,600
And they're effectively saying
if those those cheaper ones,

374
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,080
that if there's people that hold
options in the money that have

375
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,800
had them for a while, they're
saying you can't use them unless

376
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,720
you cough up the money right now
to convert them into shares for

377
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,440
the vote.
And what we do know is.

378
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,280
I wonder if there's there could
be a different mechanism to

379
00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,280
exercise them where maybe you
don't have to cough up the

380
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,880
money, but you only yeah, are
entitled to that.

381
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,080
Like there are these different
mechanisms.

382
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,560
Well, you look at our.
There are if they're in the

383
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,720
money, but if they're out of the
money, then it's out of the

384
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:25,880
money.
Those ones, yeah.

385
00:19:26,120 --> 00:19:28,120
No, just say I want to take.
The difference exactly.

386
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,240
The other one today, the what is
it, the cashless exercise

387
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,280
facility.
So Ralph, that's it from

388
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:37,120
Genesis, if they took half the
shares at 0 exercise price

389
00:19:37,120 --> 00:19:39,960
effectively instead of
exercising the full amount at

390
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:40,960
the price.
Yeah.

391
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,400
Sure, they're sort of.
They're these funky?

392
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,040
It's if it's baked in, but at
the when they're granted.

393
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,600
Yeah.
So what we, what we kind of did

394
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,560
not know from about a couple
weeks ago is that they said they

395
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,200
had a majority, but they didn't
have the 2/3.

396
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,280
So they were sort of floating in
around I'd say a bit over 50%

397
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:57,800
and they.
And they didn't specify if that

398
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,960
was of all security holders or
if it was of the shareholders,

399
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,800
like it was ambiguous which vote
it would actually be applying.

400
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:08,760
To exactly and they also said
that a bit under half of the

401
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:13,440
securities had yet to be voted.
So that did indicate, you know,

402
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:19,920
they, they needed maybe 75% plus
of the votes still to come in to

403
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,800
try and pull them over.
They needed plenty more in

404
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:24,880
favour.
So do you know, kind of get into

405
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,920
a bit of a discussion of where
we think this is going to go?

406
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,560
I think it's, you know, much pay
much shorter odds that the deal

407
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:35,440
doesn't go ahead given
everything that sort of

408
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,120
happened.
And that leads to the question,

409
00:20:37,120 --> 00:20:38,840
do we think the deal is going to
get re cut?

410
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,720
Do we, yeah, I mean, are there
any, any other sort of

411
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,240
takeaways?
How do we think the the stocks

412
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,440
will kind of react?
Have you guys got thoughts on

413
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,720
that one?
Well, I think you, when you

414
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,400
satellite you, you would think
if they were confident they

415
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,360
weren't going to get it.
I think you said this before, if

416
00:20:54,360 --> 00:20:57,000
they weren't going to get the
votes, they wouldn't hold the

417
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,880
vote I don't think.
Would they?

418
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,280
Like wouldn't they?
Wouldn't a re cut or something

419
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,040
an improved offer or something
be getting pushed before this

420
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,320
fight like they they must you
see think there is a

421
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,600
possibility?
You see that commonly with the

422
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,200
the directors who know they're
not going to get revoted and

423
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,240
then just one hour before they
say I'm not actually standing

424
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,680
for re election, it's all good.
I reckon it'll be somewhat

425
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:24,440
close, but I, I do agree like I,
yeah, I, we, I'm not an expert

426
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,720
in Canadian plan of arrangements
or anything, but in Australia

427
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,600
you often you'll get kind of a
re cut if, if things are looking

428
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,800
challenging with certain
shareholders who, who have some

429
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,240
sort of controlling influence.
And then all of a sudden there's

430
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,280
this bit of bit of an uplift and
we, we haven't haven't seen

431
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:39,200
this.
I don't know what the

432
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,360
restrictions might be around
kind of, you know what an uplift

433
00:21:43,360 --> 00:21:47,440
sort of this this stage in a, in
a deal or anything for Canadian

434
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,720
law.
But yeah, I don't know.

435
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,680
I don't know.
I've got, I'm sort of with you,

436
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,120
JD, I think.
I think, I think it probably

437
00:21:54,120 --> 00:21:56,480
looks less likely than likely
that, you know, the deal will go

438
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:01,280
through it in its current state,
but could look like an idiot.

439
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:02,120
Want to answer?
Yeah.

440
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,520
Yeah, yeah, but you're the the
big uranium fan here.

441
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,600
Do you think if the deal doesn't
go ahead and they stop pursuing

442
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,160
vision, there's another name
that they would go after?

443
00:22:12,120 --> 00:22:15,000
As in the paladin.
Paladin would go after.

444
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,360
Yeah, well, I wouldn't be
surprised if this, if this one

445
00:22:19,360 --> 00:22:23,160
doesn't go through, it goes back
to the the one they tried to do

446
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,480
in 2015.
If Denison come in and try to

447
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:30,480
take fission, which all come out
of like there's all the links to

448
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,520
Denison and all that.
So I'm not sure like in terms of

449
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:41,160
Paladin, like what if if they're
if they're going for this based

450
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,120
on absolutely bugger all
synergies, unless they're

451
00:22:44,120 --> 00:22:47,520
obviously looking to go
something pretty decent in size

452
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,920
instead of picking up a smaller
Namibia.

453
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,360
Like it makes more sense for him
to take something in Namibia.

454
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,040
Yeah, that, that would be an
interesting sort of proposition.

455
00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:00,480
Yeah, so it's like, are they
gonna look at like a yeah, who

456
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,560
knows?
Look at like a a batterman?

457
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,200
No chance of getting deep
yellow.

458
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,920
That's the personalities there.
Or won't let that happen.

459
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,080
But yeah, who who knows?
Like it don't like it.

460
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,880
I thought like Paladin and the
likes would have been really

461
00:23:20,120 --> 00:23:23,800
consolidating a lot of the
smaller players in this market

462
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,720
while everything's a bit beaten
up and lot the and I'm going to

463
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,280
go into it later about the, you
know, the somatic like if anyone

464
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,840
if they're in uranium, they've
got this long term belief would

465
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,760
have thought they'd be snapping
up a lot of smaller ones to

466
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,880
scale instead of, you know,
going for this is a pretty big

467
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,440
whack.
But who knows?

468
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,840
They could, this could, yeah,
this might pivot, pivot Paladin.

469
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,200
It's just it's just it's just an
interesting one.

470
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,040
It's that lot between the
permitting over there and the

471
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,880
the build and then right next
door to next Gen and like it's

472
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,800
just it's just an interesting
one.

473
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,600
Why?
Why don't you get into your

474
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,640
thoughts from?
11 more comment on just that.

475
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,360
Do you reckon, do you reckon
like while the, you know, the

476
00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:09,760
deal's been live and I don't
know, both, both shares have

477
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,040
sort of trended lower, but do
you think anyone has maybe

478
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,440
picked up like a 5% stake in, in
vision while you've had this,

479
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,240
you know, deal liquidity that
maybe wasn't, wasn't there

480
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,800
before that could be a have some
strategic interest as well and

481
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:26,320
would actually vote no sort of.
But they if they they if they

482
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,280
picked it up after the record
that they wouldn't have a vote,

483
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,000
would they?
No, that's correct.

484
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,960
Yeah, was the record, When was
the record died in relation to

485
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,880
when the deal was announced?
Maybe a month after.

486
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,480
OK.
So they did have obviously time.

487
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,920
Yeah, quickly.
Yeah.

488
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,720
So the record date was July 19th
and we spoke about this deal in

489
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:48,400
June.
Yeah.

490
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:53,080
Yeah, God, would you ever know
who it is unless I?

491
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,440
Eventually, maybe in time, yeah.
Maybe in time, yeah.

492
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,640
Maddie, get into your your
thoughts on WNA, the Big Uranium

493
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:01,880
Conference.
I was waiting for that to

494
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:02,560
happen.
Travel.

495
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:03,760
I like it.
I like it.

496
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,760
God, Hopefully that'll pop up at
1:30 tonight.

497
00:25:07,360 --> 00:25:13,040
Yeah, possibly the good old WNA,
the so apparently it was the

498
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,920
highest attended in history of
WNA, highest amount of people

499
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,400
there, which is interesting on
the back of and I'll show you

500
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,360
the charts later of how I guess
the equities and everything have

501
00:25:24,360 --> 00:25:27,400
just been so hammered in the
recent months in, in uranium.

502
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,960
But the, you know, the the bulls
are still bloody.

503
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,560
It's it's it's very interesting.
Because you've talked about it a

504
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,320
few times on the podcast, maybe
The Reach.

505
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,200
Oh yeah, no, probably they're
like they're like, what if this

506
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,560
tickets I'm like that Uber
driver moment.

507
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,360
They're like if he's this Aussie
bloke that's talking about it,

508
00:25:46,360 --> 00:25:48,920
that means we're at the top.
That's good.

509
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:53,480
Could be well true.
The big, big couple of comments

510
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,960
like around like India and China
like with their, I guess their

511
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:02,280
outlook to eventually replace
coal with nuclear, like China

512
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:08,360
aiming for 150 gigawatts of
nuclear by 2035200 gigawatts by

513
00:26:08,360 --> 00:26:10,400
2040.
So that's like, you know, 8 to

514
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:15,360
10 reactor builds which they
they've been doing per year.

515
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:21,480
And you know the thoughts around
China being a bit opaque on what

516
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,200
their inventories are over
there, who would have thought,

517
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,840
but they do have a lot of
uranium inventories, but you

518
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,280
know talk that there they will
be a net buyer of uranium to

519
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,560
obviously kind of inventories
feed that many amount of

520
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,440
reactors.
So how much is going to come

521
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,320
from Cazada?
Prom well, that's the

522
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:45,200
considering, well Cazada Proms.
The output is as known to be

523
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,600
much lower than previously
anticipated with what they've

524
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,640
just released.
And like yeah, the the big chunk

525
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,320
coming out of boot and off score
all going to Russia in the first

526
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,520
three years, then half of it
goes to Russia for the

527
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,480
remainder.
So big question is.

528
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,320
Does Russia just on South to
China?

529
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,800
Yeah, got that good.
Yeah, who knows, who knows, but

530
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,360
China want like and it's all
around if you've got all that

531
00:27:08,360 --> 00:27:11,720
going to Russia, you've got
China wanting so much uranium.

532
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,880
We haven't even got to India
yet.

533
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,440
When, when will the Western
utilities outside of that sort

534
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,160
of start really getting active
in that contracting cycle to

535
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,200
because you got those two big
powerhouses taking such a big

536
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,040
chunk of what's coming online
over there.

537
00:27:27,360 --> 00:27:30,600
So that, that that was the talk
leading into it before as well.

538
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,880
And like India, they're planning
to triple nuclear capacity like

539
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,720
they're I think they're going
for 18 to have reactors in

540
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:44,040
development by 203018700 MW
reactors.

541
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,480
And they, but the different ones
about these, these are these

542
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,440
pressurised heavy water
reactors.

543
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,960
So they don't require enriched
uranium or the fuel rods are

544
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:58,000
with natural uranium different
to the conventional pressurised

545
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,280
water reactors different like
that, that's what users enrich

546
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,480
uranium.
So they're different style.

547
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:11,800
I think the question is around
supply post 2035 SA lot of

548
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,520
because you look at that, I'll
bring up the chart because out

549
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,640
of problems growth and
everything like everything based

550
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,920
on if they don't start adding
projects like everything.

551
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,840
So a lot of it gets depleted by
that 2035 point.

552
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,800
And then obviously you're
waiting on you your arrow and

553
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,240
and all that to hopefully
they're in production by the end

554
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,000
of fill a bit of that.
But there's a lot of lot of

555
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,960
question around just, you know,
discovery, permitting and

556
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,200
construction of like what,
what's it going to look like in

557
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,400
10 years time?
So, and then around the data

558
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,880
centres, which we talked about
in the oh, head back and have a

559
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,680
listen to that bloody episode
last Friday with Alex Turnbull.

560
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:55,160
RIP snorter data centres too.
Apparently 2.2 trillion to be

561
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,720
invested in data centres
globally between now and 2030.

562
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,920
Five years, $2.2 trillion.
Is there 32 billion in the air

563
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,600
trunk deal the other day?
Yeah, there's a, there's a

564
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:11,320
little bloody poof tank of it.
But then as we've talked about

565
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:15,120
before, the whole thing about
spot and term like apparently

566
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,920
like term process said to be
still rising even though

567
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,680
equities being hammered to
prices said to be rising,

568
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:25,440
contracts being done and around
85 bucks a pound, some contracts

569
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,600
being considered by producers to
have no floors or ceilings.

570
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,080
So that's sign if they're
confident the price is going up

571
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,600
long term, they're going to they
will take the risk and put no

572
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,120
floor in the contract to have no
ceiling in the contract.

573
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,480
So if it goes down, the
producer, the producer, yeah.

574
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,000
So that's, that's sort of where
it's sitting there.

575
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,880
And you look at, I'll bring up
the comparison here about how

576
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,120
the equity's been hammered in
the recent few months.

577
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,040
Like the Aussie producers have
been hammered the most.

578
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,800
Boston Paladin, they're down
over 40% in three months.

579
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,360
The the once in North America
and that Chemico, Fission,

580
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,840
Encore, Dennis and next Gen UAC
all down around 27 to 35%.

581
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,360
You say you like fission was up
a bit around the Paladin merger,

582
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,080
but dropped considerably since
mid July.

583
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,800
Spot spot physical uranium trust
Ding Ding Ding.

584
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,880
I'll do a little bit of that.
No, hasn't been hammered as much

585
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,040
as the equities.
That's only down 14%.

586
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,160
But like end of last week,
because everyone's talking about

587
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:32,040
W and A is the big catalyst and
everything, equities continued

588
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,880
to go out Hammond while W and I
was on.

589
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:39,000
And then spot actually dropped
4% on Friday when the spot price

590
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,920
actually went up slightly.
So there and you see on the

591
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,760
chart they discount, they
discount the NAV went down to

592
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,160
15%.
So W and I wasn't this room full

593
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,440
of everyone bloody buying
uranium equities and friggin

594
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,440
spot and everything.
But yeah, but you can you can

595
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,400
see how much the equities more
have been hammered compared to

596
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:04,960
the physical uranium trust.
So it's yeah, it's just where I

597
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,080
think the comments were around
like the utilities.

598
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,000
Will the utilities reach that
point where they're like,

599
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,360
because I think they sort of
maintain the power to the

600
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,080
producers with the like, you
know, negotiating the contracts

601
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,920
and everything, but will there
come a point where they're like,

602
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:27,920
fuck, we need to take action and
really start contracting and get

603
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,520
it?
And that's going to be that sort

604
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,240
of commencement of that
contracting cycle, including

605
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,880
like the replacement lot,
replacement rate of the uranium,

606
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,240
like I contracted to replace the
inventories and everything.

607
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,920
So just, yeah, it just hasn't,
hasn't happened yet.

608
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:47,160
But it's all, you know, there's
definitely more like, you know,

609
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,040
there's definitely more bulls
out there talking about it than

610
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,480
bears talking about it.
So you do got to be obviously

611
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,280
very cautious of letting all
that chat bloody.

612
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,680
There's people that are on both
sides.

613
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:03,520
It's just the more publicised
ones on the platforms are all

614
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:04,680
the bulls.
Yeah.

615
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,240
And I'd say most people just
don't care about the day to day

616
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:08,720
movements that we're at the
conference, right.

617
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:10,560
They're all, they're all in it
for the long term.

618
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:14,320
If you're a producer, if you're
a utility, you're looking at the

619
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,440
longer term trend.
That's what you're that's what

620
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,480
you're caring.
And and the spot prices as we

621
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:23,760
said, so thinly traded kind of
kind of not irrelevant, but the

622
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:29,280
term price is what is the bloody
driver of all of your ID because

623
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,120
that's where all, whatever it is
ID or 90% of the the pounds are

624
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,440
done in the term market.
So like you've got it sounds

625
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,200
like, you know, for the most
part there's like the the thesis

626
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,200
is still intact.
The equities have been like

627
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,520
haemorrhaged and yeah, I mean,
it's like those sorts of

628
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,480
environments to get, you know,
certain types of, you know,

629
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,000
investors interested.
Right.

630
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,560
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's just it's just one of the

631
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,560
IT always just the it's the
interesting question all the

632
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,280
time.
It's like, and it's probably the

633
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,800
same.
It was the same with copper, I

634
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:05,640
believe when this copper
thematic and it's still going on

635
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,560
now like that the copper
thematic and the global shortage

636
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,560
of copper and the need for
copper and all this like that's

637
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,840
that's that's been around for
what friggin 3 or 4 years now

638
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:15,800
and it's.
Ages.

639
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,480
Like since all this, the Green
Revolution, like, and that's

640
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,320
we're still at bloody what, 4
bucks a pound or whatever, like

641
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:28,000
even that hasn't taken off yet.
So I like these, yeah, these,

642
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:33,040
these structural supply deficits
or whatever they, they can be

643
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,200
there, but it just doesn't mean
everything's going to go up.

644
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,000
Copper.
Copper's a great example, but it

645
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:38,920
might at some.
Point.

646
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,120
The term market has just kept
itching up though, hasn't it?

647
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,280
Yeah, that's like in the 80s
now, isn't it?

648
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:44,080
Yeah.
Family.

649
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:45,240
Yeah.
So, yeah.

650
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,920
And yeah, but the equity is just
bloody smashed.

651
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,640
I'm definitely, I've got a guy
next year to WNI, yeah, right up

652
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,720
my alley, pretty much outside
the lock in the interim.

653
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:04,560
The Australian equivalent of
WNIWNI Drill 24 that is,

654
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,800
wouldn't you say?
That is probably the closest

655
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:11,000
thing we've got in Australia at
the moment to WNI next month,

656
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,480
October 15 to 17.
Buddy, mate, it's the drillers

657
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,480
WNR you want, you wanna, you
think of if you replace the all

658
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,199
the uranium fuel buys and bloody
producers and everything in one

659
00:34:24,199 --> 00:34:26,239
room, you replace them with
drillers.

660
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,960
The drilling equivalent, That's
drill 24.

661
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,679
All right.
Cannot bloody white ticket in

662
00:34:31,679 --> 00:34:35,360
the show notes in Perth 15th to
17th at the convention.

663
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,000
Centre humped mate.
You know who has the best word

664
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:38,159
on the decline?
The bloody drillers.

665
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:39,800
Drillers mate.
The closest to it.

666
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,280
James, you wanna you wanna go
and make money, go to idea talk

667
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,880
to.
Go to idea like mate get find

668
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,400
out wall cross service
providers.

669
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,400
Wall crossed all day.
I can't bloody way.

670
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,320
I reckon it's gonna be the
highest amount of GCS per square

671
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:00,400
foot contained within one room
in Australian history.

672
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,000
That's how all conferences
should be measured.

673
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,760
GC per square foot, yeah.
Oh, off the charts mate.

674
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,080
I'll tell you what, if you're a
mining business out there that

675
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,680
like sending invoices to
drilling companies, this is the

676
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:15,240
hunting ground for you.
Get your ticket, go make some

677
00:35:15,240 --> 00:35:18,000
money off some drillers.
Go away to you.

678
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,320
What?
It's funny, what more do I have

679
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:20,880
to say?
I'm.

680
00:35:21,240 --> 00:35:22,720
Excited.
Get your tickets in the show

681
00:35:22,720 --> 00:35:23,920
now.
It's we're gonna be there.

682
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,400
I can't wait, right, boys?
Percy is predictive.

683
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:28,840
That's.
One for me, Maddie, yeah.

684
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:34,280
Up to bloody 20%.
Yeah, yeah, basically 9090.9 and

685
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,000
yeah I just thought I'd talk
through some of the interesting

686
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,120
deal mechanic stuff to just have
a bit of a chin wag.

687
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,840
On Friday there was this news
purse uses stake in Predictive

688
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,480
went up to 19.9%.
You guys saw that Ali Ali

689
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,160
covered the initial investment
really well about 3 weeks ago.

690
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,680
Perseus, as we know, proven
African gold miner Predictive,

691
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,360
you know the sexy undeveloped
project in in Guinea.

692
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,040
Remember back when yeah, Ali
covered the initial 13.8%

693
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,920
investment.
There was also this other 3.5%

694
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:09,920
economic interest that Perseus
had by these cash settled equity

695
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,440
swaps, leaving them with about
17% total interest.

696
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:18,000
Well, in order to get 19.9% of
predictive Perseus, they unwound

697
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,320
those swaps.
They've they've, you know, and

698
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,040
they've picked up some, some
more shares by executing these

699
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:27,640
share sale agreements and some
on market, some on market kind

700
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,320
of transactions as well.
They would have they been like

701
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,960
block traded or something the
swap would have traded into

702
00:36:33,240 --> 00:36:35,440
because they would have owned
the swap like.

703
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,040
The swaps were unwell.
Beneficial interest, yeah.

704
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:43,000
Yeah, the swap somewhere unwind
by these, yeah, like off market

705
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,760
transactions and then and there
there are these further

706
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,840
transactions with specific
substantial shareholders not too

707
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,000
dissimilar from what what was
what was done with Jamie Boydon

708
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,920
3 weeks ago.
So throwback to when like you

709
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,440
know, Perseus picked up the the
first big stag from Jamie

710
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,600
Boynton and it is, you know,
there was there was this share

711
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,720
sale deed kind of attached as an
annexure to the change in

712
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,720
substantial notice.
And how he talked about the

713
00:37:07,720 --> 00:37:10,600
interesting provisions in that
deed, which basically left, you

714
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,320
know, capital drilling, which is
Boynton's sort of company.

715
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,720
And he said it is with some
upside if if Perseus came in

716
00:37:17,720 --> 00:37:20,960
with a takeover offer at a
premium to that, to that price,

717
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,600
you know, before the 31st
December 2025, he got this 50%

718
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,440
profit share on, on any uplift
and was granted, you know, the

719
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:31,160
option to buy call option shares
as well.

720
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,720
So you know, so in the change of
substantial that went up on

721
00:37:33,720 --> 00:37:37,280
Friday lodged by Percy.
So I wanted to see if there were

722
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,880
there was any similarities or
differences with that initial

723
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,000
share sale date and those kind
of profit share things.

724
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,440
And they all had the exact same
kind of mechanisms, the same

725
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,880
profit share, the same call
option, the same expiry date,

726
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,880
and importantly the same
purchase price for the shares

727
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,640
being $0.21.
Now in the in the disclosure

728
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,400
that that purse is put up, you
can see the maximum price purse

729
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,800
is paid for shares is is that
$0.22.

730
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,920
So from from the documents
uploaded to date Dais X, I get

731
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,960
the impression that purchase is
being like pretty damn diligent

732
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:15,320
about managing their entry price
for for this previous stake.

733
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:19,000
You know, you can see on on
predictive Spark chart that the

734
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,360
shares shot up to like $0.29 in
the in the first few weeks after

735
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:24,600
purchase announced their initial
stake.

736
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,920
So it sort of sore up there from
the 15th onwards.

737
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,840
But you know, Percy's, they
didn't keep buying this stake

738
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,520
because the share price rose.
They waited for the share price

739
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,760
to drop, which it did.
There was this, you know, some

740
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,080
uncertainty popped up around
Guineas permitting permit

741
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,280
processing.
So the share price fell off and

742
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:43,760
that's when Percy's bought more
shares.

743
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,080
As we sort of, you know, saw on
Friday, they paid the same price

744
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,040
as the initial stake.
So it's now Percy's just got

745
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:55,640
what, 19.9% and it's paid as
high as $0.22 a share And you

746
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,400
guys know what the read through
is there.

747
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,400
They've been pretty thoughtful
about not increasing their price

748
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,840
paid for shares.
What as much money in the bank

749
00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:08,400
for to spend it on something is
always on I.

750
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:12,800
Think it's, it's all about like
I've my read through is that

751
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,320
they're they're probably likely
to to try and wrap up 100%, you

752
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,280
know, in the in the not too
distant future because you know,

753
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,880
like there's the whole rule.
You can't logic takeover offer

754
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,640
at a price lower than, you know,
price you've paid for shares in

755
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,280
the last 12 months.
So I think it's all about

756
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,720
whatever offer comes, it's going
to be referenced as a, you know,

757
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,080
one of the one of the metrics
they'll use to sort of talk

758
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,040
about whatever premium is
offered will be a premium to,

759
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,200
you know, the the 22 cent sort
of, you know, last like entry

760
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,160
price that they've got on 21%
entry price so.

761
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,160
Make the deal.
I think, I think I think Percy's

762
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,720
just going to try and get a get
a get a deal done for 100,

763
00:39:46,720 --> 00:39:48,920
whether they'll more mechanism
they'll use and whether they'll

764
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,440
have kind of, you know, a great
deal on both sides.

765
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,880
And not like all of that's TBA.
But my interpretation is they're

766
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:58,360
they're motivated to, to get a
deal done sort of, you know, and

767
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:02,960
then and then yeah, maybe even
by the end of the year like TBA.

768
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,480
They're growing.
Jeez, very.

769
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,480
That'd be pretty unreal to say
within one year.

770
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,760
Take all Corp and predictive.
Yeah, well, that's.

771
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:13,360
I'd love their work cut out for
them.

772
00:40:13,720 --> 00:40:15,520
Yeah, yeah.
Well, they can prioritise one

773
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,240
over the other.
You have to do both at some

774
00:40:17,240 --> 00:40:20,080
time.
Yeah, growing in in the Ivory

775
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,040
Coast, you know, development
projects into other countries

776
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,160
and stuff.
Quite the operation.

777
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:27,320
Yeah, right.
Do you think, do you think once

778
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,920
I get to that start, do you
think Perseus would be

779
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:36,040
attractive to a big African
focused international miner ever

780
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,480
once I consolidate or once they
got this gown?

781
00:40:39,720 --> 00:40:44,280
Like AI don't even know a big
dial like Endeavour or like

782
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:49,120
Anglo Gold or what?
Yeah, don't know.

783
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,280
That'd be huge.
That'd be huge.

784
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,120
I think Perseus have one of the,
you know, like when you when you

785
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,440
bunch all the gold miners up and
stuff like they've got like some

786
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:04,600
of the lowest realised kind of
costs for of any of any of the,

787
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,120
you know, the gold miners out
there.

788
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,040
Like it's a portfolio that, you
know, if those sort of costs are

789
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,600
sustainable over time, that you
know, it's an enviable, it's an

790
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,280
enviable thing.
Most gold miners want to lower

791
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:21,120
their like average costs via an
acquisition and and I imagine it

792
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,400
makes sense for a lot of them to
to one person see if they're

793
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,600
comfortable with the with the
mines and assets and exposure.

794
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,040
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I don't know how big's the

795
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:30,440
endeavour.
I might have blame that

796
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:31,480
probably.
I don't even know if they're

797
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,760
freaking bigger than.
That's a really big head, yeah,

798
00:41:36,240 --> 00:41:38,160
is other one.
What's Perseus's market cap?

799
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,200
3 odd.
Sure, it's fucking stupid.

800
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:48,120
Yeah, 6.7 billion Canadian.
Perseus is 3.2.

801
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,080
All right, there you go.
Sweet.

802
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,920
They're twice the size.
Yep, that's what's gonna happen.

803
00:41:53,240 --> 00:41:57,480
It's like there it is.
Yeah, it's like B2 gold's got a

804
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:58,840
lot of Africa, but I think
they're trying.

805
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,960
To get out of Africa.
And they yeah, sold asset, sold

806
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,280
an asset in Kyaka and whatnot,
so.

807
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,040
Good to say, good to say.
Some activity in good old

808
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:08,440
Africa.
Your home, JD.

809
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:14,320
My home, yes.
This is the home of Axis mining

810
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,360
technology.
It's also the second office.

811
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:21,680
It's also the home of MMS.
Verify ADR, get your tickets.

812
00:42:21,720 --> 00:42:25,080
Get your tickets.
Verify DSI underground

813
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:28,360
Silverstone, CRE insurance,
Greenlands equipment, K drill

814
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,440
and user spark chart.
Get em get em India Puduru money

815
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:33,800
miners.
Puduru, Puduru.

816
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,720
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

817
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:38,920
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

818
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,520
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

819
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,560
person.
Before making any investment

820
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,600
decision, you should consult
with your financial adviser and

821
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,760
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

822
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:52,920
financial situation and needs.