Another lithium mine bites the dust

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Right eye money miners, we're
just ripping straight in men Rez

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and Bald Hill, bit of news there
and we have some deal action in

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the sort of sandstone sort of
land or a sort of Laverton and

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it's some bloody regular
offenders here.

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Forget Gina, mate, there's a New
Deal blocker in town.

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Maybe God?
Oh, to compare these people to,

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right.
Take it, take it away.

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We'll save that one.
That's going to be a big

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segment.
JD Minrez, Bald Hill on us.

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Yeah, first and foremost the
Ding, Ding, Ding from Ali, the

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customary one there, she's a
Minrez shareholder.

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Minrez chucking Bald Hill on us.
Like you said, Maddie, it is

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actually, it's only the the
second WA mine to go on full

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care and maintenance, which is
kind of a bit funny to think

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about with.
But you've had a lot of sort of

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production, you know, slow downs
and these sorts of things,

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Pilbara, Lion Town and
everything.

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But yeah, they also actually
slipped in late on Tuesday, a

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response to an ASX query which
I'll give a couple comments on

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to start with and then we'll get
into the Bald Hills sort of

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story.
But Long story short, the Min

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Res Board admitted they should
have said two years ago when

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they first found out about these
events that there were in fact

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related party transactions.
So that's a sort of another

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strike against the the board.
Obviously there's a very similar

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board to what it was two years
ago.

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Not quite the case with
everything that happened in the

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the mid to late 2000s, but they
the current board that is deemed

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it immaterial to shareholders.
And I think like we sort of

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touched on in the past that hey,
a managing director profiting at

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the expense of a shareholder, no
matter really what the quantum

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is, whether it's 10 bucks or
whether it's a few 1,000,000

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bucks is material and people
should know.

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But unless you guys had sort of
extra comments on that one, I

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think we can jump into the bald
hillside of things.

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Well, it's not.
It's not material financially,

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but it's material on a corporate
governance standpoint. 100% is,

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yeah, yeah, I think.
Leave it at that.

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Yeah, absolutely.
Needless to say, the AGM in one

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week's time, 21st of November is
going to be a juicy one.

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I'm looking.
Forward to that in a week.

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Yeah, one week.
Fuck, that's awesome.

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Yeah, it's going to be, it's
going to be large.

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So let's talk a bit about bold
here.

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Like we said, care and
maintenance will run through a

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couple of the details.
Just looking back at the clock,

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it was almost a year ago to the
day, roughly within a couple of

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weeks of Minres officially
scooping up Bald Hills.

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So they haven't had it for all
that long.

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Unfortunately, the the shutdown
is going to impact about 300

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employees.
That's sort of sad to say.

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Minerals did say they'll try and
redeploy a few people, but there

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will undoubtedly be a few
redundancies happening now,

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given that the care and
maintenance decision was almost

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with immediate effect.
The spot plant will be running

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for a few more weeks, but by
early December things will be

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kind of shut down.
Shipments for FY25 will be

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therefore kept at about 60,000
dry metric tonnes as opposed to

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the 1:20 to 1:45 guidance on an
SC6 basis that they had given

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not really that long ago.
I think in in August is when

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that guidance had come out.
Care and maintenance estimates

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sort of 15 to $20 million per
annum.

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That's kind of standard.
But importantly on a free cash

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flow basis, they're saying that
this will save them money.

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That's the the most important
decision in min res and that's

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the kind of lens that they've
taken.

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Although, you know, again, as
we've kind of touched on in the

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past, it, it is a bit surprising
that they've made the decision

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right now.
I mean, for one, why not just a

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couple weeks ago with the
quarterly with all that info?

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Granted, they did have a bit
going on, but I think most

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people that follow the lithium
space quite closely be saying

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why they why didn't they do this
a while ago?

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But you know, hindsight's kind
of 2020 the, the main decision

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has been made and it's, yeah,
it's, it's the right thing to do

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and something they needed to do.
Just just looking at the the

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cash balance.
It's tough, very tough to

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redeploy people when you're all
the lithium, the lithium part of

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the business have gone from even
time to two on one.

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And so there's already been
pressure there.

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So it's.
Yeah, I mean even.

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Very hard to redeploy them, so
redundancies would be a cost.

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Your point of redeploying is
actually really interesting on

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Maddie because I the most
staggering part about the

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announcement, to me it was a
statement that if the market

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turned, it would only take four
to six weeks to restart, which

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is bonkers.
Surely there's no way.

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Yeah, I think of think of the
restart of what you know that

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was that was like like a six
month process.

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Because you got the you got some
whether they keep coming, keep

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some of the gear at Mount Marion
lot near Bola.

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They keep the gear there like
they've redeployed some of the

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gear to Mount Marion.
Like you might be able to get it

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up and going pretty quickly.
I'm not sure.

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Not a not a not a restart expert
in terms of how long it would

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take.
So.

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Anyone can restart a plan in
four to six weeks.

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I'll just.
They probably could.

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But did they actually?
Why couldn't I?

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Did they actually say to
nameplate capacity?

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I think that's an important
detail.

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When is that ever happened in
history?

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Someone restarting a plan in
four to six weeks with it after

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after you've made a care
maintenance decision, you've

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reduced your staff, like you
said, 300 people.

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You've got to rehire people.
You've got to, you know, retrain

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people in a lot of instances.
You can't just pick up where you

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left off and like it just there
is the it's just AI believe a

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bonkers statement.
Yeah, I mean, you can I.

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Think, I think when you've got
people on other sites that you

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can redeploy and when you
probably possibly could be over

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manned at the time, you can
redeploy processing personnel to

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restart.
I don't think it's not doable.

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I think it's I think it'd be too
hard to make an assumption from

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where we sit to say it's not
doable.

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Yeah, Yeah, I lean towards what
you're kind of saying on, on

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that one.
I think the the big kind of

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talking point here is why Bald
Hill versus the the other

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operations and then we'll check
up the FY25 guidance that they

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give.
And you can pretty clearly see

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on an FOB basis that Mount
Marion has slightly high cost.

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Now the, you know, FIB, it's not
the the Bay all and end all.

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There are a couple other costs.
But I think the, the big point

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to address is that the other
operations are joint ventures.

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You've obviously got Albemarle
at Wodgina and at Matt Marion

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you've got Gangfang.
Both of them are 5050 splits.

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So firstly on on Wodgina, it's
no secret that Albemarle have

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been bleeding cash.
They reported a $1 billion loss

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for the quarter just gone, not a
complete cash loss.

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There was a big write down in
there, but they're in a pretty

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fragile position.
Although I was actually

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surprised to see that the
quarter over the last quarter,

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the stock has jumped 50%.
But that sort of comes with the

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the volatility and it's
undoubtedly been a downward

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trend for some time now.
But they're a bit complex to

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kind of read and it's, it's
harder to make a judgement on

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what their kind of thinking is
because they've got downstream,

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not that their partners at Matt
Marion don't have downstream as

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well, but you're piercing in a
lot of pieces together.

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You've obviously got Greenbush's
interest in Australia, you've

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got downstream in China.
It's it's kind of hard given

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we're not as close with album
out to see how many spongemen

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tonnes do they actually need to
meet the requirements that

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they've got the offtake
commitments to fulfil, You know,

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the the hydroxide plants and all
these kind of things.

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Is a pretty opaque like.
Would you be able to figure out

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how much they need from
Australian operations?

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You definitely would be able to,
yeah, Yeah.

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But I think in comparison to
Gang Fang, what they're doing

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and what their kind of strategy
is, it's a little harder because

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I think Gang Fang strategy is is
a bit more simple.

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They want to maintain market
share in, in the downturn.

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That has been the playbook a lot
of a lot of Chinese companies

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and the go to case, you know,
example for me is what C Mock

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did with 10K finger rumour in
2016 when everyone else was

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selling assets, they came in.
I think that's a good sort of

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point to example of how Chinese
companies have in the past

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operated in mining downturns.
They're keen to get market

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share.
And you know, Needless to say,

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everyone wants to pick up market
share in a downturn.

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But some of these players have
actually gone and done it.

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And I think that I think that's
the the MO that they're trying

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to stick to here.
And that's why I think, you

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know, if you're looking at the
decision they made at Mount

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Marion, I think Gang Fang would
have just said no.

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I'm not sure if you guys differ
on on that one.

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On Albemarle, like I listened to
their quarterly call, they were

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asked specifically by an
analyst, there's been rumours in

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the press that you've been
weighing up selling green bushes

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and and Wagina.
And how did Ken Masters reply?

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He says we would never sell
green bushes.

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Yeah, full stop.
Pretty pretty conclusive, isn't?

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It Wagen is for sale, I think at
the right price, yeah.

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Yeah, do you think so?
How is Bald Hill the smallest

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output on the lithium units for
minrays?

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Yeah.
Yeah.

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So it's interesting to see they
they put Bald Hill on care and

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maintenance.
Spot price went up overnight.

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I'm not sure if it was all
attributable to Bald Hill being

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put on care and maintenance, but
that's what one note said.

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So it's like you put that on
care and maintenance, save a bit

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of cash, lift the spot price a
bit, interesting to get a bit

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more cash for watching her and
Mount Marion operating.

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Yeah, to to the point on the
price is bouncing, I think maybe

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the futures might might even be
a bit of a better read and that

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they also jumped jumped quite a
bit and you can sort of see what

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maybe financial participants
might be thinking.

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I mean the overall component of
global lithium carbonate

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equivalent supply that Bald Hill
makes up is about 1%.

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So it's, you know, it's, it's
not a massive operation on a on

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a global kind of scale, but
interesting to kind of think of

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in, in that kind of light.
Do you do you think that bounce

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could have been like yes, the
bald hill went on care and

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maintenance better though maybe
a future signal for intentions

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for other operations?
I, I probably learned to just

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zooming out.
One day is one day.

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Let's just let's just kind of
see what happens.

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It just went up.
It went up.

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Just went up and that.
'D be welcome news for for

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plenty of them out there.
It what it is just surprising

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though, because like even in
miniser's own numbers, you know,

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bald hill is a higher cost.
Sorry, it is a is a higher

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margin mind and Mount Marion and
they're kind of like you look at

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their relative guidance ranges
and this is a this is a point

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that was sort of like made by YJ
on on Twitter.

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He's like, why, why is it?
Why is it Bald Hill that's, you

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know, being closed instead of
instead of Mount Marion?

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Like Mount Marion is the one
that we thought would close

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first If if it is more
profitable, Yes, there's the

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mining services business that
might offset it because you

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share it with gun thing.
But you know, it's pretty hard

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for for observers and analysts
and everyone to really believe

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that Bald Hill would be that
Mount Marion be making more

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money than Bald Hill.
We all think Matt Marion is a

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less profitable operation.
And I think that, yeah, I think

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the exact read through is that
gang for thing don't want to

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shut down Matt Marion.
Yeah.

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That that's kind of how, how
else could you kind of explain

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it's a, it's a tough one.
Yeah.

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You know, we looked at the same
numbers there and, you know,

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just on paper, I mean, you might
look at FY24 numbers and they're

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very different.
Marion actually came in lower.

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00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:07,600
But the guidance for FY25
clearly indicated that you know,

224
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,480
Bald Hill wouldn't be the one
you logically pick to to flick

225
00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:11,640
off first.
But.

226
00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,280
Was that was that considering
that min raise as a combined

227
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:21,240
entity might possibly lose a bit
more on the lithium compared to

228
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,240
Bald Hill, but make up more from
the mining services that they

229
00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:25,200
charge?
That's a point.

230
00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,320
That's a point, yeah.
Yeah, I mean you, you make this

231
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,920
decision on the whole business.
No, no good.

232
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,720
You know if the if the net is
negative, you make it on a net

233
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,640
basis on how minerals as an
entity is going to operate and

234
00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:40,200
what their cash flow is going to
be like.

235
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,200
That's why we should talk about
briefly that the mining service

236
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,400
is part of the business.
So this is sort of shave off 20

237
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,800
million tonnes per annum.
They sort of quite a roughly 2

238
00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:54,080
bucks EBITDA per tonne.
So thinking 40 ish $1,000,000

239
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:58,520
per annum of EBITDA for the
mining services business given

240
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,720
how they kind of separate out
those the margins that they make

241
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,320
when they report which is which
is a bit of a hit, but did.

242
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,320
You did you figure out with that
20 million tonne JD, if it's,

243
00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:12,880
it's, is that like haulage plus
crushing of the same tonnes and

244
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:14,360
all those tonnes get added up
together?

245
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,520
How does that?
Work.

246
00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,600
Yeah.
Pit hit to port is kind of how

247
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,240
they talk about it.
That's it's everything

248
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,960
logistics.
So any piece of tongue that's

249
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:25,920
whether even though they're
crushing the same tongue that

250
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:27,920
they've hauled, they get added
up.

251
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,040
Yeah, I'm not going to be able
to say that I can give you the

252
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,080
full definition, but that is
broadly how they describe it.

253
00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:35,400
OK.
Yeah, yeah.

254
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:36,960
I can't get into the
intricacies.

255
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,320
I'm not as up to speed, but that
that is how Inres reported.

256
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,560
So with them saying shutting
down is net cash flow positive

257
00:12:43,560 --> 00:12:48,000
means the losses at Bald Hill
from the lithium part of the

258
00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,880
business must have outweighed
that 40 million bucks EBITDA

259
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,280
earnings on the mining services
side of the business?

260
00:12:54,560 --> 00:12:56,320
But how does that, how does that
work?

261
00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:01,760
If you got like let's say Bald
Hill, you got Min min res have

262
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:06,800
to effectively pay CSI for all
the contracting they do on site.

263
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:11,520
So Peter's pine Paul.
Yep, within the same family, but

264
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,960
at Mount Marion you haven't got
there's that 50% component where

265
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:21,640
Gang Feng is playing CSI.
So I know they're getting half

266
00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:27,360
the only half the revenue from
it, but there's one less

267
00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:31,360
component that Min Rez is having
to pay for because you got game

268
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,280
fan paying that bit whether,
whereas they're paying

269
00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:38,280
themselves at Bald Hill.
Wonder if that's you.

270
00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,480
See what I'm saying?
Yeah, Yeah, the the JV structure

271
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,760
allows them to maybe operate at
a, at a below break even price

272
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,480
they otherwise would because
your JV partner is is

273
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,640
subsidising the net.
You know the the negative

274
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:50,760
economics in some ways.
Oh.

275
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,560
I suppose this sorry, they're
they're only getting the margin

276
00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:56,640
from game thing because they're
still having to pay the people

277
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,280
and the equipment to operate the
mining services.

278
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,280
Yeah, but there is that margin,
yeah.

279
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,040
What that is?
You can only do that to some

280
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:05,880
extent too.
And until you're the negative

281
00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:09,160
economics of the the mine
itself, yeah, completely offset

282
00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:09,800
it too.
Yeah, and.

283
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:11,960
That and that sort of brings me
to my next point.

284
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,440
It's, it's interesting looking
at their FY25 guidance

285
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,720
presentation on the, I think
it's the FY24 annual report

286
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,560
presentation.
They've, they clearly say that

287
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,160
their mining services business
is unlinked to commodity prices.

288
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,120
That's just not, not true.
If you have to shut down a mine

289
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,880
because of the commodity prices,
you know, you're stretching the,

290
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,800
the definition there a bit.
Maybe it maybe it's true if

291
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:42,440
you've got the contracts at some
Rio Tinto type iron ore projects

292
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,640
and they're not going to shut
down in in an iron ore bear

293
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,760
market.
But when you know you've got the

294
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,280
contracts at high cost
operations, can you really say

295
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:54,520
that they're completely unlinked
to the commodity price?

296
00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,600
I think it's saying the revenue
is unlinked because it's just

297
00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:59,200
per tonne.
Yeah, it doesn't matter what

298
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,120
that Tonne's being sold at.
It's.

299
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,840
No, they they describe it as it.
I mean the the quote is.

300
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,920
Politically, they describe
earnings of mining services

301
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,040
business, Yeah.
The, the, the quote here is

302
00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,440
predictable earnings unlinked to
commodity prices.

303
00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,280
Predictable earnings, yeah.
And the way they, they are

304
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:16,800
steady while everything
operates.

305
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,760
But there is still, there is
still the risk.

306
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,720
So yeah, you can see see sort of
both sides with it.

307
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,520
Just to round out on the the
kind of incentive price that we

308
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,000
touched on along with the the
four to six week restart and all

309
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,240
that.
You can kind of back out from

310
00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,920
the break even price mining
service business and all that

311
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,960
that you're kind of looking at
US 12 to 1300 ish is the

312
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,200
incentive price they would need
to get back in, back in business

313
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,960
here and flick it back on.
So given where we are, sort of.

314
00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,320
Casual 50% increase.
Yeah, yeah.

315
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:54,400
Which wow, it doesn't make it,
you know, it frankly makes it

316
00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,920
look like a pretty disastrous
transaction to buy this thing

317
00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:58,600
one year ago.
You're going to be completely

318
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,240
blunt about it.
They spent a fair bit of money,

319
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,120
spent a fair bit of money on
CapEx to get it up to shape

320
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,760
again.
And you know, you do the MPV

321
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,480
from from when you got it and
it's going to be while I mean

322
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,120
the sort of consensus on the
street seems to be FY20 8.

323
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,440
That's when it kind of, you
know, you plug in your supply

324
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,200
and demand across the lithium
market and that's when this can

325
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,000
piece in.
Who knows what actually happens

326
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,120
in reality.
But every day longer you're not

327
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,720
earning positive cash flow, that
MPV equation looks more and more

328
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:27,680
out of whack.
And, you know, worse.

329
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,040
Do you think, do you think with
everything going on with Min Res

330
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,920
that that Bald Hill transaction
number will one day come out?

331
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,840
I think some people are are are
comfortable that they know the

332
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,320
number based on what's been
disclosed in the annual, annual

333
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,080
reports.
I seem to personally think

334
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,160
there's a bit extra that's sort
of being massaged around and the

335
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,440
real numbers a little bit higher
than that.

336
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:47,200
What?
What are they?

337
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,960
What is the consensus on the
real number at the moment?

338
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,960
Think consensus on the real
number is like 600 ish Aussie

339
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,080
all in yeah.
But yeah, I, I probably would,

340
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:01,120
would think, you know, there's,
there's an, an Ato kind of

341
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,960
payment that is being marked
sort of below the 200 issue.

342
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,520
It's required, it's being marked
at 75 on the balance sheet.

343
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,319
Yeah, the the truth is somewhere
in the vicinity of that.

344
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,839
Yeah, safe to say it's not the
200 and a bit that they quoted a

345
00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:17,680
year ago, OK.
Yeah.

346
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:22,280
So except that they're to pay to
write the offtake as well that

347
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,400
came with the asset, yeah.
Yes, I think to, to kind of

348
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,880
round out more broadly on the
lithium market, some very

349
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,560
interesting gossip that we've
kind of heard in in the past

350
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,920
few, few weeks, various people
going to China, seeing what's

351
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,080
going on, you know, analysing
the market in a different light.

352
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,720
And yeah, I think I'd be
interested in doing a segment on

353
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,760
what's happening with lithium
miners in China, you know, the

354
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,920
vertical integration that we've
been hearing about and these

355
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:52,400
these sorts of things.
It's a, it's a fascinating

356
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,400
market.
It's, it's a young market, you

357
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,000
know, dynamic and moving bloody,
bloody quickly.

358
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,640
So that is, yeah, that's
something I think we should do

359
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,000
when the time is right.
What about a bloody YJ map

360
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,560
Fernley combo?
That'd be a bloody.

361
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,000
That would be good.
Two lithium gurus in the one

362
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:13,520
room via computer screens.
That could be That's God.

363
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,600
If you want it, let us know.
We'll make it happen.

364
00:18:17,360 --> 00:18:19,000
Well said Maddie.
Why wouldn't you do that?

365
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:25,480
I was speaking to a trader last
night on, on the, in the lithium

366
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,520
market and yeah, he had, I came
in from a pretty bearish

367
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:34,480
perspective and yeah, he, he was
a bit more sombre or any sort of

368
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,840
thought like, you know, there's
still, there's plenty of demand

369
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,640
for spod at the moment right
now.

370
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,120
He actually, he told me
something that like some of the

371
00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:47,640
converters, they actually it's
like 75% carbonate and then and

372
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,880
then 25% SPOD might actually
give them the optimum results

373
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:53,720
when they're actually
converting.

374
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:58,160
So there's yeah, it might, it
might not be terminal broadly

375
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,000
for spot.
But I think like the thing that

376
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,840
you know, ASX investors are
reckoning with is that WA spot

377
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,880
in general is the marginal
supply at the moment.

378
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,640
So you're saying, so you're
saying that's not saying that if

379
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:15,400
bronze go freaking huge like and
DLA is a thing, that spod will

380
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,480
become completely redundant.
There will always be a place for

381
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,800
it in the downstream
optimization.

382
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,240
It's an evolving, it's an
evolving market, right like

383
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:24,680
that.
Yeah.

384
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:29,520
The, the I came to learn more
about just the cost you have to,

385
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,600
you got to evaluate on an all in
lithium unit cost, right.

386
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,440
And just the, the efficiencies
that are happening kind of over

387
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,400
and over and over again from the
vertical integration in China or

388
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,480
in, in, in other parts of the
world too where the Chinese can

389
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,720
secure sufficient supply.
It's, yeah, pretty interesting.

390
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,880
Super, super interesting.
Well, yeah, as we said, thoughts

391
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,920
going out to everyone at Bald
Hill, but care and maintenance

392
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,760
is obviously a horrible thing,
horrible thing for Kalgoorlie.

393
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,160
It's like it's just it's more
pressure on Kadrul usually,

394
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,600
usually to keep defining more
deposits in the region to keep

395
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,800
the industry going.
Just keep delivering for those

396
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,320
exploration companies out there.
Like the pressure on Kadrul to

397
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,200
keep Kalgoorlie, Boulder,
Coolgardi, that whole Gold

398
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:19,080
Fields district afloat is, yeah,
it's pretty much like Batman and

399
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,720
Gotham.
You're talking about a team that

400
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,040
thrives under pressure.
That many?

401
00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:26,040
Yeah.
I think I always say for the

402
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,840
goldfields, knowing that K Drill
is going to be punching Arsene

403
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,200
diamond holes in and bloody,
that's hey, that's the

404
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,440
responsibility that Drew Harvey
and Ron O'Sullivan have taken on

405
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,800
because I know they're duty to
Australia, keep the economy

406
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,320
afloat.
You know what he's called the

407
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,320
Goldfields after all.
And and the Goldies, mate,

408
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,400
they're having a sniff again.
They're drilling everywhere,

409
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,920
they're finding deposits.
And the first people they want

410
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,360
to speak to about doing just
that is K Drill, because K is in

411
00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:54,680
the bloody name.
That's it.

412
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,000
What other?
What other drilling companies

413
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,280
start with K?
None.

414
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,200
Just call K.
Drill call K drill the 1st and

415
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,840
the last call.
All right, the regal of

416
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:10,640
drilling.
Oh mate, this side drama, drama,

417
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,880
drama is brewing for something
we thought was just going to get

418
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,880
over the line.
The bright star Alto scheme of

419
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,920
arrangement.
The last piece of the three way

420
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,840
deal for the sandstone.
But holy snap and duck shit some

421
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,480
friends of the show have got
involved.

422
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:32,320
An 11th hour.
Yeah, like wedge is what is what

423
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,880
I describe it as JD, the
Deutsche Ballot and Delphi.

424
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,040
They've done The Dirty on
another WA gold dealer it

425
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,440
appears, and I'm going to use
the word Delphi to describe

426
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,840
Deutsche Ballot and slash Delphi
slash Petronas.

427
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,000
It's all the same shit because
they've what they've done here

428
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,920
is is in conjunction with the
listed company Patronus that

429
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,280
used to be Kin mining until it
tied up with another Delphi

430
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,040
company which was PNX Metals.
For all intents and purposes,

431
00:21:59,360 --> 00:22:03,680
Patronus is controlled by Delphi
who owns 42% of that company.

432
00:22:04,120 --> 00:22:08,080
And Delphi are the the German
sort of asset manager that have

433
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,200
stakes in a whole bunch of stuff
on the ASX and.

434
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,800
I think I'll need to put on
another fucking Nicobite patch

435
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,760
for this.
I'm on the patches getting into

436
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,600
the vibe.
Or sure, this is going to get

437
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,680
you get.
That getting ready.

438
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,320
Give me the shits, friends of
the show.

439
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:27,440
Anyway, right now we're yeah,
there's, it's just not a simple

440
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,920
one of all the bloody variations
and permutations this could

441
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,560
take.
But we're we've been on the

442
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:37,200
blower to experts in the field
and yeah, oh jeez.

443
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,480
I haven't even described what
they've done yet, Maddie, but So

444
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,280
what?
What Delphi and Petronas have

445
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:48,960
now, they collectively hold
18.4% of Alto Metals and Alto

446
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,880
Metals of course is is days away
from a scheme vote to be

447
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:56,000
acquired by Bright Star.
To be explicit, the meeting for

448
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,840
that vote is on Tuesday next
week, 1:30 PM.

449
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,240
But shareholders of Alto, they
basically need to have their,

450
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,520
their proxy forms submitted by
1:30 PM this Sunday, which is

451
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,480
in, you know, like a couple,
three days time or whatever,

452
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,800
unless you intend on actually
rocking up in person and voting

453
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,200
in person, which not many
shareholders bothered to do.

454
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:22,320
So there's three days for Alto
shareholders here to, to, to

455
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,200
kind of, you know, get their
votes in.

456
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,920
And in a scheme, remember, you
need 75% of the vote to be in

457
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,280
favour of the deal in order for
it to, to pass.

458
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,200
You might be thinking, OK, well
Patronus or Delphi, they've got,

459
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:39,120
they've got 18.4% as we as we
learned today, but 75% threshold

460
00:23:39,120 --> 00:23:40,920
is needed is a path forward,
isn't there?

461
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,600
And it's true there is a path
forward, but you need at at

462
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,440
least 75% of the shareholding
that actually votes.

463
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,120
So it's of the shareholding that
votes and there's you know, you,

464
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,440
you, you never get 100% vote
turn out, in fact you never

465
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:56,800
even.
Like it to get 80 or 90?

466
00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:01,080
Never, never, never get 80 like
so so in this in this instance

467
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,800
you get you need massive voter
turn out in order to offset that

468
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,040
huge blocking stake that you
know looks is looking like it's

469
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,440
going to vote no.
Just based on what we're kind of

470
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:14,840
seeing pop up here on my math,
if you, if you assume Delphi

471
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,080
will vote no, and if you assume
they are the only Alto

472
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,920
shareholder that votes no, then
you need a voter turn out of at

473
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:27,240
least 73% of the, you know, Alto
shares to, to vote on the, on

474
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,040
the scheme.
That's so high.

475
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,720
But you know, 73 percent is high
enough.

476
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,760
I actually think you'll see
Delphi.

477
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,120
It just makes sense for them to
buy on market all the way up to

478
00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:39,360
19.9% threshold.
If they do that, you need, you

479
00:24:39,360 --> 00:24:43,800
need voter turn out of 80
percent, 80% of the money miners

480
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,000
who are like listening, when
have you ever fucking voted on

481
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,000
anything?
You haven't.

482
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,560
I bet you, I bet you've bet.
I bet you've never voted on

483
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,880
anything.
But people don't vote.

484
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,640
But you should vote on things
because it's just what a

485
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,080
shareholder should do.
You've got the right to vote.

486
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,320
So they're going to need crazy,
crazy vote voter turn out here

487
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:00,640
in order to get the deal over
the line.

488
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,200
Yeah.
So Trev, you've spent a bit of

489
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,440
time and Maddie thinking about
this one.

490
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,400
What is the rationale behind the
delfy sort of groups decision

491
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,440
here Petronas?
Who's loading away?

492
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,400
I reckon normally, you know,
we've both been thinking about

493
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,960
this a lot and normally when a
company wedges itself a stake,

494
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,320
you know, the company wants, it
often wants to bid for that.

495
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:23,880
It's the company itself.
It's, you know, it wedges

496
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,400
itself.
It when, when, when Gina wedged

497
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,040
herself into Azure, it's
actually one of the asset.

498
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,440
You know, it's not that
straightforward in this case.

499
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,600
I'm not convinced it's that, you
know, sometimes people want an

500
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,120
uplift as well.
So they were just taking up.

501
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,520
I'm not convinced it's that.
I forgot did we say who they

502
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,560
said that and and they actually
purchased the IT was a off

503
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:47,760
market trade between Horizon who
are the other company in the

504
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,640
sandstone which would you know
probably might be part of that

505
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,720
sandstone consolidation at some
point.

506
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,640
And that was the state that
actually West Gold sold that

507
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,920
they had in Alto back in the
day.

508
00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:03,240
Yeah, so and West Gold bought it
from Adam and I believe like

509
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,560
yeah, that stake has done it's.
Done its rounds so it's plenty

510
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,120
rare and it's ugly head again.
Yeah, it's kind of funny.

511
00:26:10,120 --> 00:26:13,680
And you guys have?
It was added into because

512
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,760
obviously Delphi already had a
stake in Alta and then they've

513
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:21,760
got that then 60 million shares.
Petronas has picked up an 8.4%

514
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:22,600
line.
Yeah.

515
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,760
And so you add the two together
and you're basically looking at

516
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,680
18.4% right now.
They paid 8 and a half cents for

517
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,680
it.
And, you know, like we've seen

518
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,880
form from this group before.
These, you know, friends of the

519
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:37,120
show have have have, you know,
wedged themselves into deals in

520
00:26:37,120 --> 00:26:39,200
the past.
Plenty of people would remember

521
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,440
the previous incarnation of
Patronus, which was Kin Mining.

522
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,720
They wedged itself for stake of
Dacian after Genesis launched a

523
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,480
takeover offer on that company
in 2022.

524
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,520
Because it was a takeover offer
then.

525
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:52,880
There wasn't.
It's not like you have a

526
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,640
shareholder vote in a takeover.
But Kin and Delphi's stake

527
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,320
collectively meant it was
impossible for Genesis to reach

528
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,000
the 90% threshold required for
the compulsory acquisition.

529
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,080
As a result of that, you know,
like the there was a, you know,

530
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,640
Daisy and remained at a listed
entity majority owned by, by

531
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,200
Genesis for a really large
period of time.

532
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,440
And at the time I thought Kin's
intentions by getting that wedge

533
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,000
were actually just to get
gobbled up themselves by

534
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,840
Genesis.
That's just how I interpreted

535
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,640
the events at the time.
And the fastest way for Genesis

536
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,000
to to handle that issue of the
wedge would have been for the

537
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:32,520
Genesis to to acquire kin and
then, you know, follow on, you

538
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,640
know, bid for bid for Dacian
like after after that once

539
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:37,960
you've got kin.
But they never did that.

540
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,560
And I can understand why they
they didn't do that because I

541
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,240
don't think I would have wanted
to set a precedent that yeah,

542
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,400
you try to consolidate big M and
a plan and all of a sudden if

543
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,640
you did that, then anytime
someone wedges, you know your

544
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,480
bloody.
I think almost had a principle.

545
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,640
No bloody way.
Yeah, exactly.

546
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,600
And then it sets a precedent.
You got to pay up, pay more than

547
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:57,960
you want to for a bunch of
stuff.

548
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,040
It'd be ugly.
So they played the long game and

549
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,640
instead of Kim kind of getting
gobbled up, they accepted an

550
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,720
uplift like about a year and a
half later for the Daisy and

551
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,800
shares and then and then, you
know, Genesis made its way to

552
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,000
get 100%.
Of that, yeah, they paid a real,

553
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,680
real big.
I forget what it was, but it was

554
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,680
a significant premium for that
last.

555
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,080
Little bit yeah, Chunk, they got
the uplift they did and and then

556
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,880
a few months after that, you
know, Genesis did another deal

557
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,440
with Kin where they picked up
some of their assets in the

558
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,840
region in exchange for some cash
and shares and.

559
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,320
Again, notably, they didn't pick
up the whole thing because they

560
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,080
didn't want a bunch of it.
They just picked up what they

561
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:31,720
wanted.
Yeah.

562
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:33,200
And yeah.
And you see the one they picked

563
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,520
up, like Bruno Lewis was the
main one.

564
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,480
It was and you look at the, you
look at the mineral resource

565
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,480
estimates.
I'll bring up here like Bruno

566
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,080
Lewis, it had the most answers,
but it's the one gramme one and

567
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,080
the other ones like the
resources are higher grade, but

568
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,280
they've obviously just wanted
that and not wanted the rest of

569
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,000
it for a reason.
So I am, I would be trusting the

570
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:58,880
DD of the Genesis team far ahead
of yeah, yeah, the kin, the kin

571
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,520
side of what the value of the
other assets.

572
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,120
Are for as long as we're doing
capital markets people at like

573
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,920
we've we've heard the narrative
forever that Cardinia doesn't

574
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,360
string together.
That's just what I've heard.

575
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:10,480
That's the word on the street,
right?

576
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,280
Yeah, yeah.
You'd say that bearing in mind

577
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,880
that genocide, you know, had a
bunch of assets so that a few

578
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,200
things in their plate they would
have, you know, obviously had

579
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,040
that front and centre when
thinking about what they wanted

580
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,960
on the other side.
Yeah, yeah, but so.

581
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,120
A Ding Ding, Ding as well.
AJC Genesis.

582
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,280
Oh, Genesis.
Yeah.

583
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,680
God, which one of the three?
Yeah.

584
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:35,920
And in this case it's like so
if, if, if maybe the wedge isn't

585
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,360
because they're actually really
interested in Alta.

586
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,760
You got to you got to try and
think what are the intentions of

587
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,360
Petronas slash Delphi in this?
I don't, I don't know if anyone

588
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:46,200
really knows.
So you know, it's not like it's

589
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:47,920
a strategic like game ploy from
Delphi.

590
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,000
I actually just think they're,
they're being reactive to an

591
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,640
opportunity that presented
itself.

592
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,920
From from what I understand, the
shares became available from the

593
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,600
broker because Horizon wanted to
sell the full line and the

594
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,640
broker has has fished it out to
a bunch of different people.

595
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,000
Now in this case, it was
Patronus that that gobbled up

596
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,400
the entire line, but a bunch of
different shareholders had the

597
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,280
opportunity to to bid for, you
know, some or all of the line.

598
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,840
And so because because that's
how the thing that you know, the

599
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,600
circumstances unfolded it,
that's that's not how it would

600
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,760
play out if if Delphi tapped
Horizon on the shoulder and

601
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,400
said, Hey, I want your shares.
Why?

602
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,520
Why is that?
I don't understand that why?

603
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,000
Because.
You can execute an off market

604
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,360
private sale transfer.
You don't even have to go

605
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,720
through Canaccord and pay 2% or
whatever, whatever you pay.

606
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:40,040
Yeah, so but what?
What is it in Horizons interest?

607
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,360
But if Delphi did tap them on
the shoulder wanting the shares,

608
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,440
is it in Horizons interest to
put it out to see if anyone else

609
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:48,920
would pay more than Delphi was
offering?

610
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,280
Yeah.
You want to auction it?

611
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,600
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So it's not.

612
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,400
Is it conclusive that Delphi
haven't tapped Horizon on the

613
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,160
shoulder as part of a bigger
plan for that stock first?

614
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,960
I think it's unlikely.
But possible.

615
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,120
Possible.
I think.

616
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:03,640
It's I think.
Canaccord would love to have on

617
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,680
the record that you wouldn't pay
2% on a on a block rate.

618
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,960
I don't know why, it's probably
fair be less than yeah.

619
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,080
So you guys have dug into this
one way more than I have,

620
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,320
Horizon being the seller.
Matt, are you saying they want

621
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,440
to tie themselves into this
sooner or later?

622
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,280
Patron Horizon.
Horizon.

623
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,120
Yeah.
Well, what else are they going

624
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,880
to do?
They've got the, you know, the

625
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:30,080
bit up the up the north of, you
know, I guess the, I guess the

626
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,040
main deposit within the Alto
that's got the most future is

627
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,080
the the Alto within the
sandstone is the Alto project.

628
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,200
What my question would be is
wouldn't it be in their interest

629
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:43,120
for the deal to go through?
In Petronas's interests.

630
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:44,840
Horizons.
Horizons.

631
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,040
Horizon are irrelevant here.
They've sold the shares, nothing

632
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:51,560
matters to them.
I.

633
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,280
I haven't followed Horizon
closely, but Maddie, Maddie said

634
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,080
they they might down the track,
want to have themselves tied in.

635
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,000
Well, now that may be like if
something was to happen in that

636
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,160
sandstone region, maybe that's
part of future consolidation,

637
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,200
but.
Horizons is that's the Zeta

638
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,120
entity, right?
Yeah.

639
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,040
And they've just, they've just,
yeah, they've just sold their

640
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,640
books I think and got doubled
down on Panoramic and their

641
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,520
privatised.
Yeah.

642
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,560
So yeah.
Might mightn't be a big big

643
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:18,840
ticket item for them now.
Mightn't.

644
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,320
Need the cash like yeah.
Yeah, possibly they got it.

645
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,320
I think just thinking if it was
in their interest to see the

646
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,960
deal go through on it, do it in
a couple of days time.

647
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,680
Yeah, yeah.
I don't know.

648
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,560
I don't know about that.
Maybe I haven't thought about

649
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,520
Horizon too much.
And maybe they just couldn't

650
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:36,720
sell.
Their shares, yeah.

651
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,200
What they it wants kind of
irrelevant now they don't have

652
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:41,280
they don't own the shares
anymore.

653
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:42,880
It's sort of like.
Yeah, of course it is.

654
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,000
After, I suppose.
I suppose it doesn't matter if

655
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,320
they what happens in the short
term if eventually whatever

656
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,120
happens, but Broadstar and
bloody Patronus can fight each

657
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:53,720
other.
At some point someone will own

658
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,440
that and then they'll come into
whatever that vehicle is later.

659
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,240
Of course wanted to.
Get gobbled up.

660
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:03,240
This could potentially be a
delay that takes a long time to

661
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,240
to play out, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.

662
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,080
And and then you're trying to
think, OK, so if if you're not

663
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,080
convinced on what the ploy here
is by Patronus, they want Alto.

664
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,000
That's not that's not actually
clear at all, given what, you

665
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,760
know, bizarre stuff that friends
of the show have done in the

666
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,240
past.
They want uplifting

667
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,640
consideration.
Not convinced, although, you

668
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,800
know, who fucking knows?
Do they want some collateral

669
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,800
benefit?
And that's risky territory.

670
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,000
I think we've got to kind of
talk about all the things that

671
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,280
could be on the cards here
because it's so, yeah, it's,

672
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,840
it's just making sense that
Patronus's intentions in the 1st

673
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,360
place is something that, you
know, informs what could play

674
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,600
out here.
But making sense of that is kind

675
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,320
of pretty damn tricky to think
about.

676
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:43,760
Yeah.
No, they, OK.

677
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,800
So if you look at what Patronus
has got, so you've got, they've

678
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,240
got, as I said, they've got the
Cardinian stuff which has been,

679
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:54,400
which Genesis have taken what
they want out of it already.

680
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,440
So we can assume that Genesis
don't want what the rest of it,

681
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,760
otherwise they probably would
have taken that as well.

682
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,840
They've got and they've got
tenements South of Leonora.

683
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,800
So in and around Bright Stars
stuff, they've got stuff in the

684
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,280
NT as well.
So it's like, I got it, they've

685
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,800
got this now.
And they're like, how do we, I

686
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,520
believe they think?
And how do we get a corporate

687
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,159
outcome or an uplifting value
for what we've got?

688
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,639
And the based on the fact that,
well, doesn't appear Genesis

689
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:25,880
want to buy it, how do we get
someone like Broadstar to give

690
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,960
us an uplift?
Well, it's like, well, we want

691
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,199
to be part of this consolidation
as well.

692
00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:32,960
And we want an uplift on the EV
of what we've got.

693
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,080
I think they, because they've
got, they're like a bloody cash

694
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,120
box.
They've got, is it 66 million in

695
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,840
cash?
Yeah, 101 mil market caps on

696
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,719
EV35.
So they want an uplift on.

697
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,080
The EV they want a bunch of.
They'd earn a bunch of Genesis

698
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:45,800
shares as well.
I think Maddie too when they

699
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:47,400
sold there.
Oh yeah.

700
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,199
Yeah, so the EVs look like less.
Yeah.

701
00:34:49,199 --> 00:34:53,480
I think most of it was, yeah,
there's about 2/3 group or

702
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,120
something for that 50.
I got the where is it?

703
00:34:56,400 --> 00:35:01,080
It was Let Me Bloody Live demo
for the 53 and a half million

704
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,120
consideration.
It was 15 mil cash and 21

705
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,880
million Genesis shares.
So yeah, it's a cashbox.

706
00:35:07,240 --> 00:35:09,240
Yeah.
So they're thinking right.

707
00:35:09,240 --> 00:35:12,840
Can we if they yeah wedge
themselves in here, are they

708
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,800
going to again get the uplift
lock that did in the dice in

709
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:17,120
thing?
All right.

710
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,720
But let's talk, let's talk about
what collateral benefit is.

711
00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:24,840
And that's the thing that can be
the, I guess the determining

712
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,080
factor in these, these schemes
and how they, how they vote as

713
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:29,800
well.
It's it's effectively saying

714
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:34,240
that a collateral benefit is
when Patronus get something in

715
00:35:34,240 --> 00:35:37,160
return for in a way they vote or
being in a deal that other

716
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,680
shareholders don't get.
Perfect.

717
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,480
Pretty much, Yeah, pretty much.
So, and this is when we get

718
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,640
venture into the territory of a
side deal.

719
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,360
Well, that, that's, that's the
thing I can't quite piece

720
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,320
together.
Do they want, are they trying to

721
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,480
like get pesky because they
actually want they have a

722
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,480
different mode if they want
access to different assets or

723
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:57,920
they want to be scooped up in a
different way?

724
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,400
Or is it is it actually about
Alto?

725
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,040
Is it about a broader thing?
And if it is, that's very

726
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,080
fucking risky territory.
Yeah.

727
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:08,680
I think my first pass of what
they want before we get into

728
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:14,280
what's actually possible, what
they want Broad Star as part of

729
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,880
this consolidation to either buy
them or buy the tenements of

730
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:22,880
them in the Leonora Laverton
region and get some value for it

731
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,600
right now.
That's what that's what I

732
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,360
believe the intention is of of
this to disrupt it.

733
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:31,320
They want an uplift on the value
of those tenements.

734
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,400
So, and the only way to do that
now because just aren't going to

735
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:36,960
be.
Sure.

736
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,000
Because like, yeah, Are you
sure?

737
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:44,440
Because like, if I think of the
ownership 43% owned by the

738
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,960
Germans, how do they ever get
liquidity, even if it's a cash

739
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,760
box, you know what I mean?
You only can how they, how can

740
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,600
they ever sell those shares?
Maybe they could distribute the,

741
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,640
they could potentially
distribute the, the cash.

742
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,600
But this tax leakage probably in
doing, in doing that.

743
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,520
So they might actually just want
to be acquired at a corporate

744
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:09,200
level themselves in the most tax
advantage advantage way for for

745
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:13,240
for Deutsche Ballotin to get a
liquidity event by by a major

746
00:37:13,240 --> 00:37:14,600
like a Genesis or something like
that.

747
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,760
Yeah.
And but I think we can, I don't,

748
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:21,000
we can't see Genesis doing it.
I think what if, what if, what

749
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,840
if Broadstar as part of this
consolidation, which would be,

750
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:26,680
you know, whether that's a solid
deal and they have to have a

751
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,440
different class of shares that
they have to like effectively

752
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,400
abstain from voting in this
game.

753
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,120
But if I get then acquired by
Brightstar for script, doesn't

754
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,120
that give them rollover relief
and that's a tax advantage?

755
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,080
Advented Tigers way of doing it.
Sure.

756
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,720
Yeah, yeah, they've got they've.
Still got the the shares?

757
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,920
You know you've got the cash.
Yeah, but.

758
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,920
The rollover relief would be not
having to pay tax specifically

759
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,720
on that win.
Yeah, but you're still having

760
00:37:56,720 --> 00:37:59,680
shares in your hands, not cash.
Yeah, but then can't they sell

761
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,160
them lighter it?
Could, but they could sell their

762
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,600
shares in, yeah.
Now there's no that that that

763
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,040
you can't.
There's no liquidity for.

764
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:08,520
Yeah, I mean, you can't sell
that Broadstar is not the most.

765
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,240
No, the plan.
But Genesis is liquid.

766
00:38:11,240 --> 00:38:12,440
That's the only thing you can
sell.

767
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:14,440
Yeah.
Yeah, but I was talking to

768
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:15,960
Maddie's point there, yeah.
Yeah.

769
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,960
So then well, is it part right
if they say they get all

770
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:23,200
Broadstar script and then that
combined consolidated entity

771
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,840
might be either more amenable to
whether it's Genesis or someone

772
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:27,640
else.
Yeah.

773
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,520
To acquire that vehicle, which,
yeah, that gives them the

774
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,160
liquidity to maybe get out.
It's I don't know if they're

775
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,560
thinking that far right.
All of this, all of this

776
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,040
conjecture, like one thing's for
sure, we don't really know what

777
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,600
Petronas intentions are.
We're kind of speculating and

778
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,040
we're a bit, you know, we don't
really fucking know.

779
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,280
But you know, if they, if, if
there's a collateral benefit in

780
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,800
mind, they've got to be very
careful in, in, in that front

781
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,840
because it's a, it's a scheme.
The it's tricky.

782
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,160
If you know, if, if a side deal
is carved and you know, that's

783
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,360
got to be disclosed, you
probably have to postpone the

784
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:58,800
vote.
There's got to be a different

785
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,520
class of of shares for the
purposes devoted.

786
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,640
Kind of goes through the
independent experts got to, you

787
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,000
know, say that it's at arm's
length.

788
00:39:05,240 --> 00:39:06,600
Yeah.
All that sort of stuff.

789
00:39:07,720 --> 00:39:10,000
Yeah.
So it it it becomes complicated.

790
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,000
You send the timeline, you add
deal completion risk in the

791
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,680
process.
Or, or, or Brightstar have a few

792
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,840
options up their sleeve too.
They could they could swap to a

793
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,320
takeover offer and just be like,
you know, stuff, you know, I'm

794
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,360
happy to I'm happy to get 80%
right.

795
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,600
That's fine, You know, squeeze
them and play the long game that

796
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,640
way.
Or or Brightstar could just

797
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,920
rally the troops as hard as they
possibly can.

798
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:36,720
Good pan there without rally.
Oh, so I can pick up that and

799
00:39:36,720 --> 00:39:39,080
try and get 80% of shareholders
to vote?

800
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,720
Without soliciting.
Sorry, sorry, I say Bright Star

801
00:39:41,720 --> 00:39:43,840
could rally the troops.
What I really mean is, is Alto

802
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,440
because it's yeah.
I'm sure Bright Star would.

803
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:46,840
Be working.
Bright Star wouldn't argue with

804
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:48,840
that.
Because it's, it's, it's, it's

805
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,080
Alto shareholders that have to
rock up and and vote here.

806
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,640
And they do have a relatively
concentrated register.

807
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,640
You've got, you know, I think
Terry Wheeler is a director and

808
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,160
you know, he has to vote for it.
Like you've got a pretty

809
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,320
concentrated register of people
like Gold C is blown.

810
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:04,840
Yeah, yeah.
ACORN.

811
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,960
Like, you know, they're all
presumably going to vote for it.

812
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,880
So.
But you've got to get sufficient

813
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:14,200
mass of the the lengthy tail to
vote for it.

814
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,760
And if they can do that, it
would be a.

815
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,880
A truly impressive feat to
accomplish people when you ask

816
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,760
for precedence of when there's
been like a a 19.9% no blocking

817
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,560
stake and they've voted no and
they've actually still gotten

818
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,960
the scheme over the line.
Everyone only ever points to 1

819
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,840
precedent and that was just like
TAG.

820
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,520
M Com yeah, M Com got acquired
and TPG bought a 20% blocking

821
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,680
stake and it's still got over.
So worth making a quick comment

822
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,240
on what the motivations or the
incentives might be for auto

823
00:40:44,240 --> 00:40:46,120
then, because they're the ones
that have to pick up the phone,

824
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,600
you know, as it kind of is,
well, their share.

825
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:52,120
Price is going to crater if this
doesn't get over the line

826
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,240
because they've got no cash.
They've been come rise forever

827
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,760
and they're going to they've
just off market traded for eight

828
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,320
cents.
I think they'll bloody what, 3

829
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,800
or 433 and something before the
deal.

830
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,720
Bull price but ASX.
Company juniors rallied in in

831
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:11,160
that space, yeah.
Yeah.

832
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:15,320
So that you'd think that that
would easily have like the but.

833
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:16,840
Don't know.
But their salaries?

834
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,640
Might keep their job you.
Guys have a way of just I, I.

835
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,640
Think like, I think there's a
lot of forces implied for them

836
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,560
to have enough incentive to get
the deal done like this.

837
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:27,880
You've done all this work.
You're up to this point, you

838
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,920
know, people are offered in some
advised to get a deal done.

839
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,200
There'll be, you know, all sorts
of things vest in that process

840
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,400
and all that sort of jazz.
And you know, yeah, all, all the

841
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,120
advisors are incentivized for
deal completion.

842
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,840
So everyone will be wanting to
get the deal over the line.

843
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,160
Don't think Alto would be
particularly resistant.

844
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:46,280
I wouldn't have thought I would.
That would be wanting I'd be

845
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,520
getting on the phone to their
shareholders or their advisors

846
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,320
will be getting on the phone to
their shareholders and

847
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:54,240
encouraging them to to, you
know, plug a couple numbers into

848
00:41:54,240 --> 00:41:58,040
their phone and then click the
button and vote for for, you

849
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,040
know, for like submit their
proxy, whatever, whatever it is

850
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,880
that you got to do.
It's the deadline for that is

851
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:07,720
1:30 on Sunday.
And yeah, otherwise if, and that

852
00:42:07,720 --> 00:42:10,600
will have a good idea, right?
Also we'll have a good idea by

853
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,520
then what the, what the actual
like results going to be with or

854
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:19,040
without Patrona slash Delphi's,
you know, involvement in the

855
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,440
case.
Because you know, your proxies.

856
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,040
And it'll be really interesting
to see if they then, you know,

857
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:27,800
if they, if they actually choose
to extend their scam vote, if

858
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,640
there's a restructure, if, if
things are, you know, thrown out

859
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:34,520
from a timeline perspective
because maybe they just don't

860
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,840
quite get there.
I reckon they're so they're

861
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,280
either gonna, so they either
could extend it, they could roll

862
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:44,040
the dice and still hold the vote
and rally like fuck right now,

863
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:45,360
which I'm assuming they're
doing.

864
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,080
How how easy it is to put your
proxy thing.

865
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,080
Do they have to like register
for a autonomic account or

866
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:53,280
something?
Very, very easy.

867
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,200
Super easy.
No one does it, but it's super

868
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:55,640
easy.
Yeah.

869
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,400
Can you like do it as you said,
plug it on your phone or you

870
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,440
actually got to register an
account first you.

871
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,240
Can do it on your phone.
You just have to Chuck in your

872
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,160
your holder identification
number or your SRN, Chuck it in

873
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,000
and your post code and you just
click yes or no.

874
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,120
Yeah.
Very easy.

875
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,840
Yeah, yeah, people should vote.
Stop not fighting people.

876
00:43:16,240 --> 00:43:19,600
Yeah, because if you don't
fight, people pull on this

877
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,760
stuff, Yeah, get an outcome for
themselves.

878
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,160
Yeah.
Well, that's it.

879
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,760
And that's the uncertainty.
Uncertainty for yeah, Alto

880
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,800
shareholders is like what what
actually happens if if the deal

881
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,240
doesn't go ahead?
It's a yeah, bit of a more like

882
00:43:32,240 --> 00:43:34,320
challenging proposition then and
I.

883
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,160
Could I could I could, I could
put my fucking cock on the block

884
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:41,120
and say the share price is going
to go down significantly if it

885
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:46,240
doesn't go ahead for Alta.
Yeah, absent.

886
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,880
Absent like a takeover offer
from from the Interlock guy, you

887
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,080
know.
Yeah, but that, that depends if

888
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,080
that's.
Yeah, yeah.

889
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,120
Yeah, Yeah.
I don't know now that well,

890
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,160
because I guess another
guarantee is that, you know, the

891
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:05,240
this Patronus entity like that
now they're looking for, they're

892
00:44:05,240 --> 00:44:07,080
looking for corporate outcomes,
they're looking for money to

893
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,360
make off just chairs and stuff
like that.

894
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,560
I don't seem bloody mind
actually wanting to mine

895
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,400
anything.
No, the liquidity that, you

896
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:18,520
know, Dolphy's made in the
market is Spartan and Azure, the

897
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,320
two big wins they've had, yeah.
And then they've torched shit

898
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:22,680
loads of money in other parts of
the market.

899
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,760
But that those two big wins have
offset a lot of it.

900
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:29,000
Yeah, yeah, I don't say I'm ever
like making the call to Tim

901
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,880
Taylor and cross boundary energy
for a hybrid power station.

902
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:32,920
Well, they're never going to
need it.

903
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,600
They're they're not mining
anything like yeah, So Tim, if

904
00:44:36,720 --> 00:44:38,360
don't call them, don't call
Patron.

905
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,160
It's probably called Broad Star.
Well, I think they're they're

906
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,880
setting some like intentions to
possibly mine something in the

907
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,360
future.
Yeah, to consolidate.

908
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,320
They've been mining, been mining
a second fortune bit of pit

909
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,040
mining out in the Bloody Menzies
region, right.

910
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,160
I think a hybrid power station
supplied by a cross boundary

911
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,560
energy might be on the cards
there.

912
00:44:55,920 --> 00:45:00,000
Power purchase agreement 0 CapEx
straight to the sandstone once

913
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,960
all this shit bloody gets
sorted.

914
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:03,720
Yeah, I've seen the state of
some of the sandstone

915
00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:05,640
infrastructure.
I think Tim's going to have to

916
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,080
sort that.
Out, I think a little.

917
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,600
A little nice bright and shiny 0
CapEx cross boundary energy

918
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,240
hybrid power plant to go good up
there.

919
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,720
Right, build and operate.
What a great model.

920
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,080
Good on you, Tim.
Thanks for thanks you and cross

921
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:22,400
boundary energy for powering the
Samsung region.

922
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,880
Potential sense and not powering
for trainers.

923
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,280
What?
OK, let's do some predictions

924
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:31,880
bets.
What do we think is going to

925
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:38,080
happen?
Roll the dice I reckon.

926
00:45:39,720 --> 00:45:42,200
I do think they'll get to 19.9
but.

927
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,200
Yep.
Just give it a go, I reckon they

928
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,840
might get it over the line.
You think 80%'s 80% turn out's

929
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,080
gettable?
It's bloody hard, but super

930
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:54,200
hard.
Surely you can make 100.

931
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:57,000
I don't know how many showers
there are, as you said, like 100

932
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:01,320
calls and walk them through
bloody voting on the phone or

933
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,800
you're not allowed to do that.
I you can only.

934
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,800
I don't know exactly what the
rules are there, but.

935
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:08,400
Can't record the phone
conversations.

936
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,000
Private conversation.
What do you recommend?

937
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:20,120
I, I think, I think there will
be a side deal cut which will

938
00:46:20,240 --> 00:46:26,240
possibly need to be reviewed by
the independent expert and the

939
00:46:26,240 --> 00:46:30,200
scheme vote will be delayed.
But it will be and they'll get

940
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,880
in a different share class and
go down that road and abstain

941
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:35,560
and that'll get the deal over
the lawn.

942
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:39,400
I think that's the, because if
you, if they do, if they roll

943
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,920
the dice.
And as I said, there's been one

944
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:44,800
precedent for it.
I'm not sure if there's been

945
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:46,840
others.
Mine one main precedent because

946
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:50,400
you it's just such a risky play
to then have to go redo the

947
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,200
whole scheme again.
Redo the court.

948
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:53,320
Be a nightmare.
I don't.

949
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,120
I have to look to the register.
I don't know.

950
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:56,960
How I think, I think it's
doable.

951
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:01,480
I think it's doable, but the
late the the lower risk play or

952
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,520
delight because it's been going
for a while already.

953
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:08,640
Yes, delighted a bit longer try
and appease these interlopers

954
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,120
just to try and get the deal
done.

955
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,760
Is is a lower risk play?
Yeah, way lower risk.

956
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:19,680
What do you reckon, Trev?
My yeah, we haven't talked about

957
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,880
this scenario, but I actually
think the most likely thing is

958
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:23,440
that Petronas votes for the
deal.

959
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,920
Oh, OK.
So, OK, so if they if they did

960
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,240
vote yes and they're because
they're already a shareholder of

961
00:47:30,240 --> 00:47:31,680
Broadstar I.
Think they own a little bit of

962
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:33,760
Broadstar?
And then this 20 of the outside,

963
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,920
the smaller chunk, I think
that'd be possibly still less

964
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:38,920
than 10%.
Like, yeah.

965
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,440
Or maybe I'm not sure what that
number would be, but that.

966
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,640
The reason I say the most likely
thing for them to his vote for

967
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,840
is mostly because I've got no
fucking idea what their actual

968
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,960
intentions are.
So for all I know, this is just

969
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,600
the cheaper way to own more
Broadstar shares.

970
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,240
Here's an idea.
Maybe this is just a ploy with

971
00:47:54,240 --> 00:47:57,560
that shareholding in the pro
forma that Hans and Rowan can

972
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:05,920
get on another board.
Maybe put it to a shower to

973
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:10,080
vote.
Oh fucking hell, this will be a

974
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,080
bit of a bloody They're going to
be hustling their ass until

975
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,480
Sunday trying to rally And I
suppose like whether what

976
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,840
happened, whether they there's a
risk you've done after voting

977
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,080
yes or not, you're still going
to be rallying the bloody all

978
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,440
the registry up until that
Bloody Sunday.

979
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,520
Get every proxy vote because it
is possible.

980
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:28,720
You have to fuck.
I'd love to see this get up.

981
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:30,440
This would be good for
Australia.

982
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,800
This is good for the gambling
nature of Australia is if they

983
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,640
roll the dice and get the votes
over the line.

984
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:42,360
And even with the Delphi mods
voting against, that'd be huge.

985
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:44,400
Be massive.
Go Australia.

986
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:49,760
This could be the next fucking
men's 4 by 100 relay from the

987
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,080
Sydney Olympics.
This could be a YouTube video

988
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:53,720
when this happens.
This could.

989
00:48:53,720 --> 00:48:57,200
This could be 2 million views.
If this happens, this would be a

990
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,480
great Australian moment.
It's the Stephen Bradbury, yeah.

991
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:03,960
Oh gal, Australia, come on, come
on.

992
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,440
Can't tell you how to vote, but.
Jesus Christ.

993
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,160
Just vote for a great Australian
moment.

994
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:15,800
Oh fucking hell.
Oh this is this would be a good

995
00:49:16,720 --> 00:49:18,360
Monday's going to be good.
When's the vote?

996
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,160
Tuesday.
The vote's Tuesday, 1:30 PM.

997
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:26,160
Yeah, unless it gets perfect.
Yeah, but showing us the

998
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:26,720
standard?
Time.

999
00:49:26,720 --> 00:49:28,480
Oh, should we go?
Yeah, we.

1000
00:49:29,720 --> 00:49:31,720
Should.
Yeah, we could do live from the

1001
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,760
live from the boat they.
Might, they might lock us out.

1002
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:36,400
I got last time I went to a
shower vote.

1003
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:37,480
They fucking didn't let me in
there.

1004
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,680
I reckon we'll get into this
100% we go.

1005
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:43,480
Let's do it.
Right.

1006
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,200
God, what a bloody what a set of
names to follow.

1007
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,160
Mineral Mining services.
They'll be doing a bit of work

1008
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,960
in this pro forma.
Not for Patronus, but probably

1009
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:56,200
for someone else that wants to
mine mate.

1010
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,360
Grounded in the bloody.
Oh no, we didn't talk about them

1011
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:00,960
today.
They're just frigging awesome.

1012
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:04,560
Love you, love you Paul, Natalie
crossbound your energy we did

1013
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,000
talk about.
Sandy Ground Support also got to

1014
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,800
thank them.
Oh good old CRA insurance.

1015
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:13,880
Hey, Drill and Dysat.
Hoodoo money minors.

1016
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,760
Hoodoo information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

1017
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,000
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

1018
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:23,600
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1019
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,640
person.
Before making any investment

1020
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:28,680
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1021
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:31,840
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1022
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,000
financial situation and needs.