An unfiltered yarn with some GC’s

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In order of this special JC
podcast, I'd like to pay tribute

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to one of the greatest JCS of
all time, all Natali and all the

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JCS within the Grounded
Construction group and all the

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JCS that have Sicilian building
heritage all around the world.

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Grounded.
Making miners sleep better on

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your mine site.
Get a grounded camp now.

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Now righto buddy miners.
Nothing like a round table that

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has been made possible by the
fans.

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And we've got one of the OG best
friends.

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And when we say friend of the
show Shawnee Rosa, we really

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mean it.
Not like those other friends of

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the show.
Great day defender and no better

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than.
And we'll give context of why

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these two followers are on.
This is a moment in my life.

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Wait for it, Patrick from
Uranium Twitter, you fucking

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beauty.
He's on.

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How are you, mate?
I'm.

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Going well.
Thank you.

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Now Mr Ricard Didier give a bit
of history of why these two

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followers are on done by some
great work by you guys, nothing

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by mate.
Are they they're legends who've

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you know, we, we, we put our
director special out there with

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a, you know, a bit of a stretch
target.

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If you, if you, if you manage to
get like 60 people to sign up

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with your referral code to our,
our what we think is high value

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subscription to our daily email.
Then you'd get an invite to a

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podcast and, and also with
dinner.

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So you know, both both Sean
Paddy Allen Trench got there in

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our our our latest push.
But trenchy also a former guest

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to the potties.
Unfortunately can't make it

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today, but but we're pretty
pumped to have mate.

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This is your first podcast
appearance, Patrick from Uranium

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Twitter.
Pretty much, pretty much I did.

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I did one with, what is it,
Triangle Investor?

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He had another podcast with,
yeah, personalities from

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Twitter.
Yeah, I did a short one with

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him.
They're just just while we're

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waiting, just for those who
don't know Patrick from Uranium

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Twitter, I'm going to play the
clip of why he's called that.

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Here we go.
Maddie, on your on your point on

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contracting, there was a a
question from Patrick from

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Uranium Twitter.
Mate, how good is how good is

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that?
How?

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Good.
Is that?

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Yeah, like this.
Guy, someone introduced

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themselves.
It's from Twitter, from Uranium

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Twitter.
That was awesome.

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Yeah, on a webcast.
I think it was on the yeah, that

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was me, John Patrick here from
Uranium Twitter.

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So yeah, if you can let us know
a little bit about contracting

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any discussion to add that sort
of thing, that'd be really

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great.
Thanks.

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Well, I can easily say.
We have had no discussions.

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The there's no need to have any
discussions until the the

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utilities realise the
predicament that is happening.

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That was a momentous occasion in
the history of conference calls

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that was and well done Koba,
Right on Patty.

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Patty, why don't you why don't
you tell us a bit about we've

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obviously had Shawnee on before.
We know he's the the time at

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now's rule are the godfathers of
hedging.

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Got a thumbs up from him then.
Like what?

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What do you We know you're for
uranium, but what else do you

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bloody?
What else tickles your fancy in

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the world of markets?
I do like the tin, tin stuff.

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I mean, I'll probably learn
about that listening to you

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guys.
To be honest, the tin trap

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started to dabble into into
that.

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That looks a bit like the
uranium trade back in sort of

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2018-2019.
Other than that, I'm in a few

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sort of biotech stocks that I
got into number of years ago

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from IPO.
But to be honest, yeah, most of

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my portfolios.
So I wouldn't say much, maybe

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maybe half now because I have,
I've trimmed at times half of

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it's probably uranium stocks at
the moment.

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Well, you just described to me,
Patty is you are an official

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degenerate.
Yeah, pretty much.

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It's not going to work.
It's not going to work.

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But, but thankfully, as I was
saying before the show started,

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I got in early.
So people have to remember that,

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you know, half My Portfolio is
in uranium, but I did get in

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very, very early.
So how early, Right?

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Yeah.
How early?

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What year?
Oh, it would have been like

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2018.
Yeah, right.

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Proper.
I, I discovered this trade like

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late 2017, like early 2018
listening to it might have been

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either.
It was probably a combination of

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Mike Elkin, Rick Rule.
There's a few guys talking

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about, there's a few podcasts,
there's a few YouTube videos and

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it just really piqued my
interest at the time.

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And so, so I was watching it and
obviously it didn't work for

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those first couple of years.
They sort of went sideways and

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and down.
I mean Paladin probably trade

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around this is before they
consolidate the stock.

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It was probably trading, you
know, 10 to $0.20 and up to 21

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and then back to 15 for about
two years there before they sort

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of started to go on their RIP
in.

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Yeah, it must have been the
COVID lows of 2020.

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That's when uranium stocks start
to move, really.

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Because it was.
Yeah, it was probably a pretty

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slow grind for the first couple
of years.

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How good were those old Mike
Olken shows that he used to?

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He used to do a fair few more of
them.

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I remember listening to them
like 2019 and 2020 and just sort

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of being in awe.
Why didn't you buy any fucking

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uranium then, JD?
I did that.

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Did you?
Yeah, I sold them all in 22.

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That was a little while ago.
Now.

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MM Elkin's done some cracking.
Like he, he doesn't.

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He does a few here and there.
But to be honest, the thesis has

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been talked about like so many
Times Now.

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If, if you don't know it by now,
if you haven't listened to 1000

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podcasts on it from Rick Rule
and Mike Elkin, then you know

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there's plenty out there.
They just don't need to do

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anymore.
But you know, they, they, they,

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they still pop up every now and
then.

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So if you, if you've been on
this journey, Paddy, like give

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us your, your take on things
right now because it sounds like

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forever.
Everyone's been bloody bullish

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on it.
Is is it the same, different,

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just a bloody, you know, a
polished turd version of the

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same thing?
Like what's?

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What do you think?
I think this the trade still has

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legs.
I just, you know, that's sort of

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supply side hasn't really been
solved.

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We know where all the, you know,
the fresh pounds have come from.

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Most of it is just some
restarts.

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And then you've got you've got
obviously Kamiko and and Kazadam

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problem that have restarted some
stuff and got back to full

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capacity at some of their minds.
But you know, it's, it's still,

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there's still a deficit and
there's been a deficit for years

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now and it's probably not going
away for several more years,

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maybe even another four or five
years.

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So for me, nothing's really
changed.

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And I just think, I just think
there's these sort of like mini

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cycles within the bigger cycle
that could well go for another

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four or five years from now,
especially with the AI stuff and

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you know, the demand side just
picking up and the nuclear story

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just picking up.
Now.

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None of that existed six years
ago, None of that existed 4

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years ago.
So it just it like the demand

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side keeps getting better and
the supply side doesn't really

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get solved.
So yeah, at the moment I remain

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pretty bullish.
So most of my money's still in

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it.
And you know, if, if Paladin was

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to drop much more or if you get
another real sort of clean out,

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then I'd probably, you know,
nibble a little bit more on some

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uranium stocks.
Sean, you're you're a wealth of

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knowledge when it comes to sort
of mining history.

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Have you got sort of stand out
memories from that 2000 to 2010

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type era in the uranium world?
I know, yeah, you said you

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hadn't done before the show too
much hedging in that sort of

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space.
But are there any sort of

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characteristics that that we can
kind of learn about or that

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stand out to you?
Yeah, I'm back.

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Thank you.
Because yes, I was just going to

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ask the I want to ask the
question about the the spot

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trust and yellow cake and what
people who understand this

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market more than I do.
But to put it in context, yes, I

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remember in the 2000s boom, so
pre pre Fukushima, whatever,

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when uranium was running and we
heard that funds were buying

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uranium hedge.
Funds.

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Yeah, hedge funds were buying
uranium and putting them in

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caves somewhere.
Yeah, like just literally buying

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it's my physical barrels of, of
physical and just taking it off

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the market and put it.
So they're creating a squeeze,

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which you know, they love to do.
And you know, there's been, I

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mean Palladium in the past and
various markets has been

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unbelievable hedge fund things
where they've just just altered

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supply demand by taking some off
the market and then affecting

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the the futures or whatever.
And having unbelievable like

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Palladium, you know, 100 to
$1000 type thing, all

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manipulated by Tiger.
So we, we were hearing about

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this with uranium thinking.
All right, OK, well, it's the

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same thing.
So in the 2000s, my

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understanding is uranium, that's
what they did.

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And then of course, at the right
time, they just bring that all

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out.
So my question is really, and

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there's a question more than
than than a statement is like

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what I'm looking at the moment
at this whole Sprott trust and

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yellow cake is like people say,
oh, this is fantastic because

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they just keep buying.
So every time they're at a

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premium, they raise equity and
they buy more.

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And people think some of this is
sort of it's like demand, but

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isn't it just overhanging the
market at some point?

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Isn't it just supply that can
come back at some point?

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I know the way it's set up at
the moment, you like, you can't

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redeem like the gold ETF, which
I understand about like in the

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gold ETF, you can own a whole
lot of the gold ETF and you can

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turn up if you've got enough
money and say give me delivery

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and they'll give you gold for
your shares.

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Right at the moment in the
uranium trust, you can't do

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that.
You can't own a whole of the

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uranium trust and turn on and
say give me 10, I own 10% of the

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trust.
Give me 10% of your pounds.

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Well, that's my understanding.
Yeah, and that's they could

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change.
That in the.

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Future right, if it goes at the
moment, if it goes to a certain

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level and they have a
shareholder vote, Yep, they

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could right.
So they but it's it's dependent

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on a shareholder vote.
Now they but what is it?

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Is it 50 or 75%?
They need to vote in favour for

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that to happen.
I am not sure to be.

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Honest, it's it's pretty high.
It's like it's but it depends

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possibly so someone someone
could take them over.

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00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,240
Like that someone?
Could offer a premium to buy the

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all those pounds, subject to a
shareholder vote.

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Yeah.
So if you look in in like in the

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2000s, what it's something I'm
very familiar with is gold,

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right.
And all of a sudden they start

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the gold ETF.
Now being able to buy gold is

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00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,400
not new funds were always able
to do it, but once the ETF was,

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00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,040
it was just much easier for
funds to buy.

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00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,120
You bought a share, see.
And I remember going to the

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Andaba conference in 2010 or
2011, I wish I'd come up with

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00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,360
this line.
Paul Walker, wonderful guy, used

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00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,880
to work at Goldfields Mineral
Services, said there's never

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00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,280
been more gold one mouse click
away from the market.

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00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,920
One of the things that's
historically been the case is

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gold's a hassle.
You own gold, you've got a, you

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know, you've got buried in your
backyard, you're up in a village

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00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,000
up in Vietnam in the hills or
whatever.

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00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:15,400
You decide you want to sell
gold.

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00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,440
It's it's you know, and by the
time you think about it, you

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00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,960
change your mind.
Right where he said now this ETF

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00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,040
and the volumes were huge in
11-12, he said there's never

227
00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,040
been gold more, more gold one
mouse click away from the

228
00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,960
market.
Now in 2013 when gold collapsed

229
00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:31,720
and all the gold people cried
foul.

230
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,640
All that happened was that gold
started to outperform general

231
00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,800
equities and all the general
equity owners that had some gold

232
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:41,400
in their portfolio all probably
went to a allocators meeting in

233
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,240
the same quarter and went let's
get rid of our gold and go back

234
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,000
to general equities and they
will click, click, click.

235
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,280
Just sell the ETF that was all
there right.

236
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,320
Now, that's not necessarily
there, but to the extent people

237
00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:57,080
own that the Sprott Trust, they
just there's a lot of uranium

238
00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:58,360
now one click away from the
market.

239
00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,160
Like if people want to get out
of that and it can go to a big

240
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:02,440
discount.
And maybe that's the thing.

241
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,600
But I guess it just feels to me
like, you know, it's not the

242
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:10,160
same as gold, but but you know,
as that gets bigger, what impact

243
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:11,440
does that have?
Because at the moment it seems

244
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,840
to help the market, sort of help
spoof the market, but I just

245
00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:16,800
don't know what the impact of
that is in the longer term.

246
00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,880
I think it's being used as a
mechanism at the moment.

247
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,240
I think, and I've heard
something about the fact that

248
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,920
and you, you you'll be able to
add a bit more colour.

249
00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,320
Patrick Maybe.
But the, the old thing was

250
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:34,120
you'd, you'd buy spot was always
cheaper than contract price for

251
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,200
uranium.
So they would buy, buy spot at a

252
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,680
lower price, sell the term.
Carry trade.

253
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,840
Like a carry trade and I've
heard there's something going

254
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,720
on.
I've being given the full info

255
00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,840
on it where they're actually
using the Sprott trust now when

256
00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,000
it's trading at a heavy
discount, buying the Sprott

257
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:57,680
trust and using that as a carry.
Tried to then sell the term

258
00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:01,800
price, but then which is yeah,
I've I've got the full info and

259
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,080
that's like going to prevent it.
Whatever mechanism they then get

260
00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,400
out of it is going to prevent it
actually going into positive to

261
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,440
raise more capital to buy more
pounds.

262
00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:13,160
It's a recent thing, but I
haven't got the full info.

263
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:14,040
What?
What?

264
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,560
Take it away I.
Think Spot's barely like Spot

265
00:13:18,560 --> 00:13:22,000
was really active when they
first entered, which was like

266
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,280
July 2021 or something.
They were really active for like

267
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,600
that first year.
In the last, I would say a year

268
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:33,240
or two, they've been barely
active at all because they've

269
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,120
been at a discount the entire
time.

270
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,440
So they've had this sort of
flywheel at times when spot is

271
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,320
ripping and you know they're
buying a few pounds, but there's

272
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,320
such little in the spot market
that that, that they just can't

273
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,080
really get the flywheel going at
all.

274
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,280
Do you think they've?
Got more the equities of all the

275
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:55,160
traders and that have got more
understanding and strategies in

276
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:59,400
their arsenal now of how to deal
with spot because it's been

277
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,360
around a bit longer and a
manipulated in a way.

278
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,040
Potentially.
I mean, who knows what's going

279
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:06,560
on?
And there's there's people a lot

280
00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:09,600
smarter than I am in this trade.
There's institutions involved,

281
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,920
there's shorting, there's, you
know, regular just buying the

282
00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,880
stock.
There's all sorts of stuff going

283
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,000
on.
I mean, who knows?

284
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,400
I don't want to become a a
conspiracy theorist or anything,

285
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,160
but that's.
Good for views.

286
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,680
There's all sorts of, I bet all
sorts of strategies are in place

287
00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,560
to take advantage of of spot
when it's at a 10% discount or

288
00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,240
15% discount at times.
I mean, I don't know what the

289
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:33,640
discount is right now, but I
think.

290
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,280
It's close.
It's nearly 10 again.

291
00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:36,480
Yeah.
What do?

292
00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,320
They'll just they'll just raise
and pound 10% a couple a week.

293
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,040
What does the volume of spat?
Does?

294
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,720
Anyone know what the volumes of
spat and yellow cake sort of

295
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,120
represents as a percentage?
£66 million is spat.

296
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:48,880
Right.
And what's that is annual supply

297
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,960
like how does that kind of?
Work what would be annual,

298
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,040
annual.
Annual demands like 150 supplies

299
00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:59,080
about like sorry, annual demands
like 18190 depends who you speak

300
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:04,760
to and supplies like 150 depends
who you speak to.

301
00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,560
And spat's got 66 correct?
And what's the yellow cake got?

302
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,280
About bit over 20.
Yeah, right.

303
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:11,720
OK.
And that, that doesn't include

304
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,080
replacement, right, does it,
buddy?

305
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,800
That's just supply, reactor
supply.

306
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,000
Yeah, Yeah, I think so, yeah.
So I think they talk about in

307
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,560
uranium laws like there's what
the reactors take, but then

308
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,040
there's the replacement as well
to keep the inventories and

309
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,520
everything.
So there's and you might be able

310
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,240
to answer this is 1.
You never get a straight answer

311
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,680
or cause like cause notoriously
yellow cake trades at a much

312
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,640
bigger discount than spot.
So because obviously yellow cake

313
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,320
get their pound, they get they
get $100 million US worth of

314
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,400
uranium from Kazatom prom every
year.

315
00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,560
That's how they get the increase
inventory.

316
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:51,080
Obviously spot increases it by
issuing new capital to activate

317
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,280
the at the market facility to
buy pounds.

318
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,000
But yellow cake notoriously
trades at a much bigger premium

319
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,680
than spot.
So Patty, do you reckon that is

320
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,640
the case?
Because well, my theory was that

321
00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,760
spot will people would be more
inclined to buy spot to get them

322
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,680
closer to raising capital to buy
more pounds to lift the spot

323
00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:14,840
market.
Create a sentiment thing where

324
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,920
there's not as much of an
incentive to buy yellow cake

325
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,720
because they're not going to buy
more pounds.

326
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,080
They've already got their fixed
amount.

327
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,000
They get fixed dollar amount
they get of because that a

328
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:26,400
problem.
What's your theory on it?

329
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,320
Yeah, I know.
You're probably right, I guess.

330
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,640
Yeah, if you wanted to, if you
wanted to, like if you wanted to

331
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,960
try and manipulate the spot mark
and then your first, your first

332
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,440
port of call, port of call
probably try to get spot back to

333
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,960
a premium so they can start
issuing chairs where you

334
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:43,640
obviously can't do that with
yellow cake.

335
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,320
Does yellow cake?
This might be a dumb question,

336
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,880
but does that have a shelf life
like some other commodities that

337
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,680
has to be used within a
particular period?

338
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,600
So yeah, can they hold on to it
for 5-10 years and it doesn't

339
00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,200
matter?
Well, I think, but can't can,

340
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,120
I'm not sure if they can swap it
or anything because like when

341
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,760
they hold it like physically
like they'll they will hold it

342
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,400
in barrels in barrels that
facility.

343
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,760
So someone is holding that on
behalf of them.

344
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,480
So it's not all in one.
My understanding it's not all

345
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:19,880
just in one shed that that's
their shed, but it'll be it'll

346
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,839
be in friggin North America or,
or somewhere one of the

347
00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,280
facilities and they're holding
that piece of uranium on behalf

348
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,560
of that.
So I'm not sure if they cycle

349
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,280
the bits of uranium through or
something, but it's.

350
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,840
Well, China's got like £600
million or so or £400 million or

351
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,960
something in in in storage.
I think some of that's on the

352
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,080
border with Kazakhstan and
China, and they're probably

353
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,880
using a fraction of that each
year.

354
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,200
So I would imagine it's shelf
life, it's pretty good.

355
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,240
It probably doesn't.
It's not like bloody lithium

356
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,400
hydroxide.
I mean I'm not a geologist so

357
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,520
I've got no idea, but I would
imagine probably not, but.

358
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,120
Let's run with.
It doesn't have an expired IG so

359
00:18:00,120 --> 00:18:02,320
I'm very I'm happy to be
corrected.

360
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,600
I did get quite excited when I
like with the yellow cake when

361
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,000
when it first came out I'd met
the the original MD of the

362
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,640
yellow cake whose name just
escapes him a bit.

363
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,280
He had worked previously for a,
a kind of a high net worth that

364
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,600
owned gold mines and stuff.
So we had met him before and I

365
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,720
had a meeting with him in London
one time and I said, oh, so

366
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,440
you're going to be accumulating
this uranium.

367
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,400
I said, so you'd be like the
central bank uranium.

368
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,440
So I said the gold market, the
whole hedge market works because

369
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,160
there's, there's uranium we
could lend.

370
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:32,440
So could we come to you and like
borrow pounds and then we could

371
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,560
sell pounds in the market and
raise finance for a uranium mine

372
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,080
and they would repay in uranium.
So do like a uranium prepaid

373
00:18:40,360 --> 00:18:42,360
like you do for gold.
Or we could do hedging because

374
00:18:42,360 --> 00:18:44,840
we could sell it and put the
money on deposit in the future.

375
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:47,400
And I, I'm like, I'm going, I'm
going off like this guy, this is

376
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:48,760
fantastic.
We're going to, you know, like

377
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:50,840
This is why?
Because, because particularly

378
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,680
early market spreads nice and
wide and everything.

379
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:53,760
I'm going, how do we do all
this?

380
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,040
And the guy goes never going to
happen.

381
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,560
The whole idea of this thing is
to lock this stuff up forever.

382
00:18:58,560 --> 00:18:59,680
I want.
To squeeze the market.

383
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,680
Because like, why would we let
those pounds go so someone could

384
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,160
sell them?
The whole idea is to take them

385
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,000
over here.
And I'm going well, well, in the

386
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,640
long run, that makes no sense.
When they saw it's an inflation

387
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:10,480
hedge.
It's a bit like gold.

388
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,680
I go, well, I'm not sure it's
like gold, but you know, but it

389
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,000
was interesting because, yeah, I
got, I got very excited about

390
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,120
the potential and I think at
some point it is interesting

391
00:19:18,120 --> 00:19:20,480
that it to me, it's like, yeah,
does someone take it over at

392
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,960
some point to the utilities all
get together and bite?

393
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,440
If there was a real squeeze,
like, you know, yeah, someone

394
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,040
take this over and take it.
So it, it, it, it doesn't seem

395
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,320
to be as simple to me as like
they like, I think the spot

396
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,480
people try and you know, it's,
it's it's good for because we're

397
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,000
we're taking supply off the
market, but they're not

398
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,160
consuming it.
So it's there anyway, it'll be

399
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,000
fascinating.
But well, hedge funds are going

400
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,280
to get over at some point in a
big way.

401
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:45,000
There'll be some kind of.
Hedge fantastic in a big way and

402
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,200
I think the hedge fund supply is
actually somewhat from the spot

403
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,720
supplier.
They might actually some hedge

404
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,600
funds are set up to actually you
know like participate in the

405
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:54,720
physical market in a lot of
ways.

406
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,920
So there's there's the known
spot quantities, but there's

407
00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,960
also like the hedge funds that
that have been participated for

408
00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:01,320
years and have set up kind of
there.

409
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,920
And then I think there's a lot
of smaller people over Mike

410
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,640
Olken saying he owns physical.
I think there's a lot of people

411
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,400
that's been physical on smaller
scale.

412
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,080
Surely I'll be interested to
like we talked about it the

413
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,360
other week.
When you talk about supply and

414
00:20:13,360 --> 00:20:17,920
demand, like like the comments
around spotting uranium, about

415
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,360
supply squeeze in there.
You're having these trusts, the

416
00:20:20,360 --> 00:20:24,680
people in storing uranium and
yeah, you know you can.

417
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,240
There's a supply demand model
you can create based on

418
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:31,360
reactors, the tile and how much
uranium is getting produced.

419
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,720
What about gold supply and
demand is it?

420
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,720
How do you explain?
It we had a, we had an argument

421
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,760
about this.
Well, and and and it's no one.

422
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,760
Is there a right answer?
Is there?

423
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:47,000
Like if a if a shit load of new
gold mines come online, can

424
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,120
there be an oversupply of gold
that can drop the price?

425
00:20:50,120 --> 00:20:53,600
The context is my argument was
that there's no like extended

426
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,040
period in history where the
fucking 4th quartile cost

427
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,040
producer makes excess margins
for like 12 months.

428
00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:03,280
Yeah.
Look, so starting point for me

429
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,720
is one of our greatest
frustrations in dealing with our

430
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,880
clients and trying to have a
rational conversation with our

431
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,760
clients about risk management.
And our whole idea is like, I

432
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,760
don't care how good that you
think the market's going to be 3

433
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,680
years from now, our job is to
help you still be in business

434
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,880
three years from now.
That's how we look at it.

435
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,400
So we go like, we got to help
you get from there to there.

436
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,080
And I'm looking at this next
period of time.

437
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,120
And so all of the charts that we
always provide to our clients,

438
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:30,600
we've got our scoring on the
chart.

439
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,360
And I'll use copper as an
example, then I'll come back to

440
00:21:32,360 --> 00:21:34,280
gold.
So we had a period of time post

441
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,400
2012 where copper went into
decline.

442
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,360
And so all of the backgrounds of
all of our charts are red, a

443
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,400
negative weekly score, they're
in decline.

444
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,760
And we always say to our clients
when it's got a red background,

445
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,880
you need to be urgent.
Gold's had a green background

446
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,080
now for 104 weeks in Australian
dollar terms.

447
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,720
For the last two years we've
been saying to our clients

448
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,440
chill, do less.
But back in this period of time,

449
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,400
we were talking to clients.
Now one of the had a client

450
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,560
where the, the, the, the
managing director was the

451
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,560
founder of the business was
quite influential in the

452
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,400
business and the way things
thought because he was the

453
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:11,640
founder and Cru was giving these
very bullish forecasts on based

454
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,560
on supply demand of copper,
right?

455
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,160
And we're going, well, that's
cool that they're doing that.

456
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:18,560
But the background of the chart
is red.

457
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,960
Like the market is selling this
thing like every week we come in

458
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,000
and it's lower than the last
week.

459
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,520
That's called a bear market.
And when the background goes

460
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,280
green and it matches the
narrative, then we're happy to

461
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:29,960
change our mind.
But this is not us.

462
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,200
This is our scoring system,
which is not a motive, it's red.

463
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,560
It was like that for three
years.

464
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,960
The three years CIU's going, oh,
this is supply demand thing or

465
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,840
whatever and we're going, I
don't know what's going on.

466
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,320
And to your point about China's
got all that stuff on the border

467
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,440
of uranium, like no one knows
how much copper is sitting out

468
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,120
of warehouse or off there or
whatever.

469
00:22:47,120 --> 00:22:48,600
All we knew was the price was
going down.

470
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,320
So you can do all the supply
demand analysis you'd like, but

471
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,040
if the market's going down,
maybe because hedge funds are

472
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,000
shorting or whatever, there's no
point standing in the way.

473
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,840
Like the first thing you learn
as an Australian kid is you go

474
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,480
into the surf, don't swim
against the RIP.

475
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,880
You will get exhausted before
the RIP runs out, right?

476
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,440
Why do people not?
Why do people not notice in the

477
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,360
market like you go, if the
current is going against you,

478
00:23:10,360 --> 00:23:14,480
swim to the side or let it take
you, but do not go against it,

479
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:15,600
right?
There is no sense.

480
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,760
So, so supply, demand.
We just all the time we have,

481
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,760
it's like consensus forecast
like we go, it's just a contrary

482
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,320
indicator most of the time,
right?

483
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,880
So, so, so copper where you
should be able to do it more

484
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,000
reasonably.
You can't so come to gold, how

485
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,760
can you?
The only thing that you can rely

486
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,280
on in gold is that gold
producers will sell everything

487
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,000
they produce every week.
And generally at the end of the

488
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,520
quarter they will sell more.
They will they will squeeze the

489
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,400
carbon out.
They will squeeze every little

490
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,080
bit of the process to sell more
to try and hit their quarterly

491
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,120
guidance regardless of the price
they achieve because they've

492
00:23:53,120 --> 00:23:55,840
told the market they're going to
produce that much volume, right.

493
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,280
So we observe that the market is
quite often soft into quarter

494
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,680
end and then rallies not all the
time, but but so you could rely

495
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:04,960
on that.
So you look at the gold market,

496
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,680
the only thing you know with
certainty is that annual

497
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,480
production of the world supply
is going to basically come out

498
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:15,040
pretty much even 52 weeks, you
know, so that's even.

499
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,200
But the mood of the market like
people who want to buy, no one

500
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,000
needs to buy gold, no one, no
one needs to buy gold any

501
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,720
particular week.
There's no one really that has

502
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,080
to buy every week.
Recently we've seen central

503
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,040
banks seem to be buying.
Now if you're a public servant

504
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,040
and your boss has said go and
buy this much gold, you buy it

505
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,520
every week, right?
And regardless if the supplier's

506
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,520
there or not, you have to push
the price higher if you've been

507
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,840
told until you've got your fill.
So central banks are wonderful

508
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,720
when they're in there because
they're this totally price

509
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,680
insensitive kind of thing.
And the only thing that happens

510
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,480
is if they're trying to convert
X percent of their reserves for

511
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,520
an exchange, if the price goes
higher, they'll just get there

512
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,480
faster, right?
Because because it was a dollar

513
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,480
amount that or a yen amount,
they were changing.

514
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,560
So the thing that I observe with
gold is that there's absolutely

515
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,560
the gold is this international
market.

516
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,440
Everyone thinks it's this huge
market, right?

517
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,960
It's everywhere in the world you
go and everyone knows about and

518
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,760
it's quoted in every currency.
It's like a junior stock.

519
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,120
And we saw that yes, last night.
It's a perfect example, right?

520
00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:15,600
So we're talking to this is what
are we Tuesday of the first week

521
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,000
after the election.
Just the same thing happened

522
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,000
when Biden was elected four
years ago.

523
00:25:21,120 --> 00:25:24,600
Market held up and then everyone
goes home on the weekend,

524
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,680
assesses it, comes in on Monday
and goes sell gold.

525
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,160
All the investors are selling
gold and there's no buyers.

526
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,120
The market's $100 low before you
find somewhere where the people

527
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,480
in Asia or whatever want to buy
it, right?

528
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,560
So it's incredibly illiquid when
the sentiment changes.

529
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,920
So the idea of trying the gold
fields, middle services or the

530
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,080
World Gold Council, sorry, like
they for years always tried to

531
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,480
do all that stuff about supply
demand.

532
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,480
And for 20 years, in my 1st 20
years, the market, the gold

533
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:54,800
price went down nearly every
year.

534
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,720
Not, not every year, but almost.
You couldn't do it on supply

535
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,760
demand, right?
You just you, you couldn't do

536
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:01,960
it.
It's, it's the mood.

537
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,480
But in the long run, it there's
you, you can do it.

538
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,160
But in the short run, you know,
the only thing that's reliable

539
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,760
is producers are going to sell.
There's no reliability on the

540
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,280
demand side.
And and so when a in terms of

541
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,760
like say, say there's 10% extra
production around the world or

542
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,000
something like that, But if a
central bank like we've seen

543
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,480
decides that we need to buy more
gold, is that does that just

544
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,000
outweigh everything like where
for the period big is there for

545
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,520
the period?
Of time they're there if what

546
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,240
they want to buy is, is as much
or more than it's going to be

547
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,880
produced in that period and
overweighs any other kind of

548
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,440
thing that's going on.
Like 2013 is a great example.

549
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,240
In 2013, when the price
collapsed, it was because for

550
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,400
five years previously,
generalist investors had

551
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,880
observed that goal was
outperforming general equities.

552
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,600
They have to own some gold in
their portfolio.

553
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,560
They don't know why gold's
outperforming.

554
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,000
They hate gold.
But if gold is outperforming

555
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,400
general equities, most general
equity investors or asset

556
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,280
allocators will allocate some
amount to gold because

557
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,720
otherwise, if they think their,
their market's going down, what

558
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,120
they should do is give their
clients their money back, right?

559
00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:13,640
No one surrenders AUM, right?
So what are you doing if your

560
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,040
assets under management, you,
you allocate them across to

561
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,760
gold?
In 2013, all we saw from late

562
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:24,040
2012 was the Dow gold ratio or
the S&P gold ratio started to

563
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,360
turn up and general equities are
outperforming gold.

564
00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:28,440
And a whole lot of people over
the last five years that have

565
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,640
accumulated or bought gold all
got a signal within one or two

566
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,800
quarters.
It was time to go and the gold

567
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,600
price collapsed and it collapsed
because gold producers still had

568
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,120
to sell.
They had no choice unless they'd

569
00:27:39,120 --> 00:27:41,400
hedged like some of our clients
had hedging.

570
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,880
They didn't have to sell.
Everyone had to sell and no one

571
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,240
wanted to buy.
And it was like a little bit

572
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,880
like what we saw in Paladin
today or Newmont a couple of

573
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,200
weeks ago.
Like, you know, when everyone's

574
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,960
one way and then something
happens to make it go the other

575
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,600
way, the market shifts 25%.
Every market does that because

576
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:56,880
you just got to find a clearance
price.

577
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,160
So probably no.
Different probably to your point

578
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,200
traveller, if like say like a
shit load and new supply came

579
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,440
on, but then you have one big
macro change like that, it could

580
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,680
fucking really magnify the like
it sounds like it.

581
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,320
You wouldn't think gold would be
so volatile, but there's the

582
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,000
potential it could be well.
Not take away from Sean, Sean,

583
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,120
you know what point is like
supply demand can actually it

584
00:28:19,120 --> 00:28:21,440
has maybe some maybe not
necessarily gold because the

585
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,320
demands uncertain, but in the
long term there's like some

586
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:26,760
predictability in supply demand
box.

587
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,560
In the short term, it's pretty
fucking like.

588
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,480
What's that expression?
In the long term, it's the

589
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,760
market's a weighing machine and
the short term it's a voting

590
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:34,480
machine.
Right.

591
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:40,200
And if I relate that to gold, my
point, and I love your

592
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,960
retaliation is the commodity
markets are not such that the,

593
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,440
you know, the the very marginal
producer should ever make super

594
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,160
profits for a long period of
time.

595
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,440
Like, you know, maybe you'll
have price indiscriminate buying

596
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,080
from a central bank, but a
central bank will make the

597
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,240
decision that they are going to
buy X dollars of gold over a

598
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,400
defined period of time.
And once they finish, they stop.

599
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,400
And then when they stop, where's
what's stopping up the extra

600
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,600
production that's come on the
market.

601
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,600
And that's, that's the more like
medium or long term kind of

602
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,120
outcome that I'm talking about.
Very high cost producers don't

603
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,000
make really high margins, which
they kind of currently are in

604
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,320
the gold gold market to be fair.
Yeah.

605
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,040
They make it for cash.
They like this time is special.

606
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,440
I think this time is special.
And we just shouldn't lose track

607
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,840
of the the sense that like
fourth quarter producers don't

608
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,000
like the times aren't fucking
rosy for fourth quarter

609
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,200
producers forever.
In fact, it's kind of short, a

610
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,000
short term phenomenon.
What would you say to that?

611
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,400
Yeah, in 2011, when the gold
price really ran, I observed

612
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,600
that everybody in the industry
was making lots of money.

613
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,720
And I was kind of like, I like,
I thought, and I hear all these

614
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,080
old timers, you go, oh, you
know, the best page of courses

615
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,960
to be in the lowest quartile,
you know, like that's the thing.

616
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,760
And you go, well, but if you're
in the lowest quartile and

617
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,600
everyone's making money and
that's just going to bring on,

618
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,120
you know, like high prices,
nothing cures high prices faster

619
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:00,840
than high prices.
Why don't this is when you

620
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:02,120
should hedge?
If you're in the lowest quartile

621
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,480
and it gets to the point that
everyone's producing, why let

622
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,640
the bottom feeders have a go?
Why not just sit on the market

623
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,200
and lock in extraordinary
profits?

624
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,040
And it went from 1800 back to
1100.

625
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,840
My, my, my thesis would have
been perfectly correct that the

626
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,720
people who had the big, but the
reason they didn't is because

627
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,640
all those people had only
recently spent an enormous

628
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,160
amount of shareholders money
buying all their really bad

629
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,480
hedges back in the late 1990s,
which was nothing to do with

630
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,360
shareholders and all about
keeping their jobs, right.

631
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,520
So in the mid 2000s, we actually
had that situation that they

632
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,280
were all spending shareholders
money to buy back new

633
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,040
shareholders money.
To buy back.

634
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,680
So no one was courageous enough
to do that.

635
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,480
But really in any market, if to
your point, if everybody is

636
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,400
making profits, even the lowest
quarter, why did that's when the

637
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,520
the top quarter I should go,
well, this is when I should

638
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,840
really just, hey, right, I
should just lock in and lock in

639
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,840
these margins because I know
these margins can't last because

640
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,520
nothing cures high prices faster
than high prices.

641
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,600
I'll give you the best
indication of where the gold

642
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,880
market is.
My mate that isn't involved in

643
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,560
mining too much sent me a
message about, oh, what's the,

644
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,800
how's it all in sustaining costs
or what's the cost to get an

645
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,560
ounce of gold out?
And so I rang him up and said,

646
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,880
what's a bit of context?
He says, oh, look, we're just in

647
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:13,680
northern, Mum was up in NT.
Oh, we're up in NT with my mum

648
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:18,840
the other week and we went to
the Mount Todd Goldbot and we

649
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,000
were getting asked about it and
they're trying to get it back

650
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,640
going.
I said mate, that is the best

651
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,880
indication that the gold price
is high.

652
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,000
That's getting talked about, the
recruit.

653
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,320
The recruit metric, yeah.
So it is, so it is.

654
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,320
Sorry.
Yeah, sorry, you're 100% right.

655
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,400
Yeah, so interesting, but Patty
should enjoy it.

656
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:40,200
Should we get you on some bloody
uranium specific equities?

657
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:47,240
We'd love to hear how you unpack
a lot of these and I would love

658
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,200
to hear it.
Personally, I'm going rogue.

659
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,800
Well, you want to feel free to
bloody tie these two in together

660
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,920
at some point.
By the way, Paladin today,

661
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,560
Paladin today, mate.
Big news down.

662
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:02,960
I think it was 28% by the end
after another 11% from the

663
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,720
quarterly back.
And Trav clearly highlighted

664
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,760
that they've still got debt in
the capital structure after

665
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,720
being at an 18 dollar share
price.

666
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,760
Didn't raise money and now
they're buddy 6 bucks 80.

667
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:19,280
Take us through the pre, the
current and the post.

668
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:22,680
What do you think the post might
be?

669
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,120
Where do I start?
Oh, emotional are you getting?

670
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,320
The emotional I am a
shareholder.

671
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:35,080
So as I said earlier, I mean,
obviously when your stock drops

672
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,720
28%, you get a bit, you get a
bit frustrated.

673
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,120
But when you've been through
that a few times and as as I

674
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,360
said before you started
recording, we've had all these

675
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,480
little mini cycles within the
broader cycle for the uranium

676
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:53,440
trade, which has been going on
now for what, 5 nearly well,

677
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,120
probably in earnest for five
years.

678
00:32:55,120 --> 00:33:00,520
It started on the 2020 COVID
lows and Paladin then was

679
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,880
probably around the 1010 cent
mark.

680
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:08,560
You know, some people would have
got in around the $0.10 mark and

681
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,240
obviously it, it ripped all the
way up to 17, which pre

682
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:17,200
consolidation is like $1.70 in
the old, old if, if you use the

683
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,920
pre consolidation price.
So what's that?

684
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,760
That's, you know, 17X on your
money.

685
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,040
That's not bad.
And if you sold a bit up there,

686
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,640
you're not, you're not doing too
badly.

687
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,880
And if you didn't sell up there,
I just wonder what people were

688
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,640
thinking not not at least
trimming a little bit when it

689
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:37,480
was $17.00 because there was
obvious, there was obvious risk.

690
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,960
You know, when a mine is, is
going from development into

691
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,040
production.
We've seen it so many times with

692
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,760
all sorts of commodity stocks on
the ASX.

693
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,080
That's a really challenging
period for them.

694
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,680
I'd love, I'd love to know,
Sean.

695
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,640
Like we had the debate on the
podcast today, which you

696
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,880
wouldn't have had time to listen
to with time coming in today.

697
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,840
But I was, I'm pretty critical
of Paladin for putting 150

698
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,720
million bucks in debt in their
capital structure, which they

699
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,400
did in January.
Share price is 40% lower now and

700
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,840
now they haven't ramp up issues.
And I argue that they are a

701
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,840
marginal producer by definition
of the fact that that supply

702
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,760
went offline in the bear market.
I just think like when you when

703
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,880
your price for perfection, what
why the fuck did you put debt in

704
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,960
your capital structure instead
of just like putting equity in

705
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,199
there with minimal dilution.
Any thoughts on that?

706
00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:30,800
And.
Probably to add to that too,

707
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,800
we've sort of conversely in the
gold market admittedly to much

708
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:40,199
more junior and seen certain
companies who have you know,

709
00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:43,440
seen their share price at, you
know, all time or near all time

710
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:49,440
highs who had dead or had debt
arrangements in place, you know,

711
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,199
very quickly replace that with
with equity at those higher

712
00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:57,120
prices to remove that.
So I'll just add that to trash,

713
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:58,280
yeah.
No, no, no.

714
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,320
The example that I know you're
thinking about in the gold is a

715
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:02,720
very interesting way we can come
back to that.

716
00:35:02,720 --> 00:35:08,120
Baker and Blackout, Yeah.
But look, we've we've raised,

717
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,520
we've helped mining companies
borrow $3 billion and sort of 50

718
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,240
to $150 million chunks.
So we've been involved in a lot

719
00:35:14,240 --> 00:35:17,040
of financings of mines, base
metals, all sorts of things.

720
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,200
One that does come to mind, I
won't, oh, the, the stock was

721
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,760
Mirabella and we had done a bit
of work and you know, they had

722
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:28,240
gone from $0.20 to 6 bucks and
we were there and they were

723
00:35:28,240 --> 00:35:31,600
looking to engage us as a debt
advisor to get debt and hedging.

724
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,280
And at the time, you know,
nickel was in backwardation.

725
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,440
So it's harder to, it's always
harder to hedge something that's

726
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,240
lower in the future.
You know, contango sort of makes

727
00:35:39,240 --> 00:35:40,680
you feel better.
It's not necessarily better, but

728
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,840
it makes you feel better.
And I remember saying to the

729
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,680
company at the time, why the
hell if you want to hire us,

730
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:47,760
like, you know, because they
said the Canadians guys have

731
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,560
said it could raise this money
three times over.

732
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,320
And I was like, talk myself out
of a job.

733
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:55,960
But if I was you, I'd just take
the equity.

734
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,640
Like this is a hassle.
This is such a hassle to get

735
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,000
this debt and the time it's
going to take and the hoops

736
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,600
we're going to jump through and
the hedging were to do.

737
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,680
But if you want to do it, I'm
happy to help, you know, like

738
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,160
we're the right people to help
you.

739
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:10,520
But if I was in your shoes, I
don't know why why you would,

740
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:11,720
right?
And that stock ended up at

741
00:36:11,720 --> 00:36:13,840
$0.02.
You know, their mind didn't

742
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,040
work.
So that that's a that's a

743
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:15,880
different thing.
But at the.

744
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,800
Time, if they had equity, they
had these guys, they wouldn't be

745
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:20,080
too.
These guys did incredibly well

746
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,720
and they probably took some
along the way and they're all

747
00:36:21,720 --> 00:36:23,720
doing very well.
You know, they don't have full

748
00:36:23,720 --> 00:36:26,840
time jobs anymore.
So you know, so they did OK out

749
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,400
of it, right?
But it was that thing of like,

750
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,080
but when you've seen it run like
that and everyone's telling you

751
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,200
it's just going to keep on
going, you know, but but you

752
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,760
know, it doesn't nothing cures
high prices, ha ha, faster than

753
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,320
high prices.
That that whole nickel run from

754
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,720
10 to 50 was extraordinary,
right?

755
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,160
Extraordinary.
But yeah, so that was a perfect

756
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,720
case where you do the numbers
and you just go, you should just

757
00:36:45,720 --> 00:36:46,920
raise equity.
You should just do it with

758
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,240
equity.
And I think my view generally is

759
00:36:49,240 --> 00:36:53,800
that mining companies and, and
debt really don't belong

760
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,600
together.
Like, and that's why we're in

761
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,120
the, the hedging advisory
business because our thing has

762
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,960
always been that hedging and
debt are necessary bedfellows.

763
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,360
Like if you, if you're a junior
miner, in particular if you're a

764
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:07,640
single commodity company in your
portfolio.

765
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,520
Yeah, I've seen so many people
battle sheets and, and, and, and

766
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,080
capital structures devastated by
a fall in the commodity price.

767
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,840
We had debt and no hedging.
So I would stay away from it.

768
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,520
So yeah, if you've got a really
strong share price, why not

769
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:20,640
raise equity?
Now there's a difference.

770
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,320
Or if you can't raise equity.
Yes.

771
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,920
If you can't raise equity, then
you go to the bank and the bank

772
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,480
says, how have I got a deal for
you?

773
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,200
But when your share price is
very strong, I, I, I never kind

774
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:31,960
of understand that.
I, I, I do get it.

775
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,000
People have got MBAs.
I don't have an MBA, so I

776
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,120
probably suffer from not really
understanding, you know, the,

777
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,960
the whole, the whole, you know,
efficient market hypothesis,

778
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,360
whatever else they want to look
at.

779
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,920
But you look at it and you just
go, yeah, I can see how it looks

780
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,720
better in your spreadsheet, but
it's a spreadsheet and mines and

781
00:37:47,720 --> 00:37:49,320
spreadsheets are like worlds
apart.

782
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:50,680
You know, like that's the
biggest problem.

783
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,760
I think Excel is probably the
worst thing ever happened to

784
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,840
mining in many ways because it
makes mines look really simple.

785
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:57,720
But yeah, like I would be with
you.

786
00:37:57,720 --> 00:38:00,840
Like, why would they do that?
And I stay away unless, unless I

787
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,960
have a very bullish view on the
equity.

788
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,880
I want to express that view.
Then you'd go to the geared

789
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,760
company with no hedging, right?
But what I do know is if you

790
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:13,200
have hedging, if you have no
hedging and you have debt and

791
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,040
things start to look bad, the
short sellers love you.

792
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,200
Like in 2013, the companies that
got absolutely poleaxed, the

793
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,320
gold companies were the ones
that had debt and no hedging.

794
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,040
Because you're as you know,
hedge short sellers are looking

795
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,680
for zeros, right?
That's what they were looking

796
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,960
for.
Companies that go to 0 and you

797
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,160
gold's never going to 0.
But gold companies that have

798
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,200
debt and no hedging or copper
companies or uranium companies,

799
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,240
they go to 0 all the time,
right?

800
00:38:42,240 --> 00:38:44,240
So, you know, debt and no
hedging just attracts the

801
00:38:44,240 --> 00:38:46,200
shorts.
Why would you bother if you can

802
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:48,400
raise equity at a sensible
price?

803
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,520
And so Mika, who I think you're
referring to before, I think we,

804
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,200
I think we shared between
ourselves and happy to talk more

805
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,960
publicly now because I think
it's fantastic the outcome.

806
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,680
I looked at that debt when they
announced it and to my eye it

807
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,560
was the most expensive project
financing that any Australian

808
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:07,600
company would have done since
the 1980s.

809
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,080
Pretty big IRR.
It was extraordinary, right?

810
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,440
But you don't have to have my
experience or your experience to

811
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,320
understand that clearly.
I would imagine that lots of

812
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,560
shareholders of the company also
did the analysis and suggested

813
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,240
to the company that it probably
wasn't a very good idea and

814
00:39:23,240 --> 00:39:26,320
particularly with their share
price being stronger, it made

815
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,640
perfect sense.
So I applaud the company for

816
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:32,800
backing out because often people
get to that they they don't.

817
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,160
So I I.
I've finished it, I might as

818
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,160
well go through.
It and it's probably a break fee

819
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,280
or whatever else and it's all
too hard and we've done all this

820
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,240
work.
So I absolutely applaud that

821
00:39:41,240 --> 00:39:44,800
company for going that far and
then going whoa, hold everything

822
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,600
and raising the equity.
But when they started that

823
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,560
process, I think their share
price was two cents.

824
00:39:49,720 --> 00:39:51,760
Yeah, right.
So when they, when they started

825
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,040
that debt process, that was
logical, it was the right thing

826
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,600
to do for shareholders.
And if having to announce that

827
00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,240
deal, it was the catalyst to
actually get people to say, Hey,

828
00:40:00,240 --> 00:40:01,640
I'll pay more for your stock
than that.

829
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,760
If you want to raise it and get
it done, then well done them,

830
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,960
right, Well, well done them.
But but when the world changes,

831
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,720
you have to change the view.
And that's one of the things

832
00:40:09,720 --> 00:40:11,240
we've been criticised a couple
of times.

833
00:40:11,240 --> 00:40:14,320
Not criticised, but like we've
gone into a process where the

834
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,600
clients said, this is what we're
going to do.

835
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,080
And then we get halfway through
the process and you know, we've

836
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:19,080
got to change everything they
said.

837
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,560
Why?
The outside world just changed.

838
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,560
Like if the outside world
changes, you have to change your

839
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:25,680
view.
You don't want to do what you

840
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,680
were doing anymore.
And I think that's what what

841
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,560
Mika did.
And yeah, I I don't follow

842
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,480
Paladin closely, but I don't
have any understanding why they

843
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,840
would have debt at that.
Yeah, that was, that was a

844
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,040
really weird one because at the
time I, I, I can recall when

845
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,200
they, when they, when they put
that debt facility in place, it

846
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,040
was around January.
I mean correct me if I'm wrong,

847
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,960
but January, that's when the
spot was like 100 and 706.

848
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,800
The equities were ripping the
value.

849
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:57,480
I mean, their market cap would
have been like 3, 234 being who

850
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,760
knows, they could have raised
10% that they would have been so

851
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,360
cashed up and beautiful wouldn't
have to stress about anything.

852
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:09,160
But instead they take it a debt
facility for what, 100 million

853
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,640
usus or whatever?
One fifty, 95150.

854
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,320
Yeah.
Very odd.

855
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:15,880
Yeah, I don't.
That was the lender.

856
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,280
So it's a, it's, it was a
consortium.

857
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:22,120
There was Macquarie, Ned Bank,
maybe ING was on it as well.

858
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,560
But yeah, there were there.
Were banks.

859
00:41:23,720 --> 00:41:25,200
There were, there were banks.
Yeah, Banks.

860
00:41:25,240 --> 00:41:26,480
Banks.
What were the banks thinking

861
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,160
body?
Hell, well, the banks are

862
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:29,480
thinking they get security they
get.

863
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,040
Security in dollar market cap
and if he has gets into trouble,

864
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,360
you'll just raise equity and
repay me.

865
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,880
So yeah.
And, and even like, you know,

866
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,000
like Paladin's been a distressed
company in the past for, for

867
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,760
balance sheet woes.
And yeah, if if you had

868
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,280
security, the asset, you you,
you know, you still, you still

869
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:46,560
made off like that.
No, I don't.

870
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:48,240
Maybe they're just crazy ubles
as well.

871
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:54,360
So bad if you're bloody you
combine the debt and and feel

872
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,760
free to give your take on the
the processing and water wise

873
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,640
there I guess.
Do you think they're going to be

874
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,160
forced to rise dosh or really at
risk of having to do so?

875
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,760
That's the, that's the question,
isn't it?

876
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:09,640
I suppose.
I mean they had 55,000,000 at

877
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:15,000
the last, the last quarter in
end of the last quarter plus

878
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:21,600
55,000,000 debt facility still
that they can you know they can

879
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,840
access.
I don't know.

880
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:28,280
I mean the, the though I think
the negative cash flow still for

881
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,840
the last quarter, but it wasn't
a massive amount.

882
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:36,760
I think one of the notes I got
sent to me was that recoveries

883
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:41,520
had improved a bit this month.
So for the quarter, obviously it

884
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,240
didn't look great, the
recoveries and and their costs

885
00:42:44,240 --> 00:42:46,840
and everything.
But apparently that has turned

886
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,240
around a little bit.
Obviously, we've got to wait

887
00:42:49,240 --> 00:42:53,040
another quarter before we can
see whether that's actually a

888
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,960
reality or not.
And but I would also just add

889
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,280
that the spot market has not
done what a lot of people

890
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,800
thought it would do.
I mean, it hit 107 and it's just

891
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:06,480
sort of picked lower and lower
on really low volume, almost

892
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,840
illiquid.
At one point it dropped I think

893
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:13,120
2 bucks on no volume, just just
someone lost dropping the bit.

894
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,560
Yeah.
And that's the really bizarre

895
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,000
thing about the uranium spot
market.

896
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,880
Is it it, it can just move with
with no liquidity?

897
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:25,120
No, no, no, no one buying
anything and it'll drop a couple

898
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:26,920
of bucks.
And I think and the fact that

899
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,560
the spot price currently is
sitting just above the floors of

900
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,200
what contracts are getting
written at.

901
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:36,560
So you've got floors of 70,
ceilings of 130 and spots at 77.

902
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,320
Like it's pretty bloody, pretty
close and.

903
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:45,120
Term and terms 8150 right as
reported at the last end of the

904
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,200
last month, So almost that that
carry trades almost back as

905
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:52,280
well.
There's about four 4-5 bucks of

906
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,840
carry trade you can buy in the
spot market if you can get it

907
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:59,720
and then put it into a term
contract at 8182.

908
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:02,360
Do paladin have long term fixed
price offtake?

909
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,080
Contracts, Yeah, yeah, I think
and I think it said that it said

910
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,600
today they'd used utilise most
of the flex in their contracts

911
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:13,520
along the lines it sounds like
as if they hit their 3 million

912
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,440
the bottom end of God and it
sounds like the that'll cover

913
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,280
the contracts.
I think if they miss the three

914
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,600
million, there might be.
Some.

915
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:24,200
Risk they have to go buy from
the spot market, but it's bit

916
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:25,600
open.
So that's why the banks then

917
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,280
would so the banks would be
happy to lend them on the basis

918
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,520
they do have essentially have
hedging not with the banks, but

919
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,000
they have certain revenue
because that's what the banks

920
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,640
are always looking for like in
the model they want in the

921
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:38,920
spreadsheet.
They want that certain price in

922
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,160
there that makes all their
ratios tick.

923
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,200
So that's fine.
Your your issue, as you say, is

924
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,120
if you're not then producing it
for less than.

925
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:46,880
That it goes the other way
quickly.

926
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,040
And this is the this is the
other thing is that you know

927
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,720
when, when it does change.
And we've seen some examples

928
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,360
recently in the market here
where people have had to raise

929
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,800
equity to repay debt or reduce
their debt to lenders.

930
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,160
And part of that's because if it
doesn't work like the model,

931
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,480
then the bank will be the first
people to re cut the model and

932
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,800
say, well, on this basis,
actually you can't carry the

933
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,040
debt that you have to carry.
And that's when you do have to

934
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,480
then go back to the equity
market and raise equity, reduced

935
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,880
debt to bring it back in line.
The banks thing, there'll be a

936
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:15,880
bit of grace on that.
But it's always, yeah, I mean,

937
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,640
like Ian, you've just got a
whole lot of people telling you

938
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,040
how to run your business who
don't understand mining and just

939
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:21,240
driving everything off the
spreadsheets.

940
00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:23,360
So every time you can avoid
having a bank in there, the

941
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,040
better, right?
I blame Ally for this because

942
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,440
she made the model of the
example you're talking about.

943
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:29,600
You're never going to live that
down.

944
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:37,480
I wonder, I wonder how I think,
I think maybe personal

945
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:41,480
relationships between MD's might
be a come into play 'cause you

946
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,520
know, there's uranium companies
that have inventory, like

947
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:48,080
working capital inventories of
uranium sitting on that.

948
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,320
So instead of buying from the
spot market to fill their

949
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,600
contracts, they might be able to
borrow it off another uranium

950
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,400
company if they get along.
Who knows?

951
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,600
Sean, you've got a a pretty
unique perspective in in your

952
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:05,480
role on the the decisions that
management teams make regarding

953
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,360
sort of risk in their business.
And we sort of touched on this

954
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,320
before we started recording
today.

955
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,680
But what are, what are the key
characteristics or sort of

956
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,920
features of a management team
that you see in, in your gig of

957
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,440
people that run a business that
treat it like owners versus

958
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:27,720
those that treat it like, you
know, it's a, it's a salary job.

959
00:46:27,720 --> 00:46:28,960
Yeah, cool.
Thank you.

960
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,880
Good, good question.
So like 84 to 2004, I worked for

961
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,240
Rothschild.
Rothschild was like back in the

962
00:46:34,240 --> 00:46:37,040
day like like what Macquarie
does now and how you see

963
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,840
Macquarie being one of those
finances, a junior minor and

964
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:43,320
whatever you know the midwife at
the birth of many good junior

965
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,480
companies.
We were like a midwife of junior

966
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,120
companies as well right in the
day.

967
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,640
And so you and it was all about
identity, identifying good

968
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,520
people.
I think one of my bosses briefly

969
00:46:53,240 --> 00:46:55,920
when we were dealing with, you
know, a more colourful W

970
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,800
Australian mining entrepreneur,
my boss said, Oh, sure, it

971
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,360
doesn't matter.
The asset doesn't know who owns

972
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,080
it, right?
You know, but you learn pretty

973
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:08,400
quickly in, in, in, in lending
to mining companies that it is

974
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,560
not asset based lending, right.
The worst mistake you can make

975
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,200
in lending to mining companies
is imagine that asset based

976
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:15,800
lending.
It's all cash flow lending

977
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:19,040
because mines are worth nothing
if if you can't reduce the

978
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:20,920
commodity profitably right
whatever.

979
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:25,120
So so management is everything
because manage good management

980
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:29,360
can make an average asset sing.
Bad management can take a really

981
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,720
good asset and screw it up, as
I'm sure that you have sort of

982
00:47:32,720 --> 00:47:34,400
seen in your working life or
whatever the.

983
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:39,000
Different with me own it.
I'm assuming you thought you

984
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:40,920
were good management in the 1st
place, but yeah, I wasn't.

985
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,120
Management, I just felt like
literally fucked it down there.

986
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:48,480
So, so, so the, the point is
like over that 20 years that I

987
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:53,840
was at Rothschild, what I
observed was people who behave

988
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:57,520
like an owner in the business
and were worried about cash flow

989
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:00,760
and were worried about the
longevity of the business and

990
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,440
the ongoing, you know, that,
that business, they succeeded

991
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:08,920
through the cycle.
And the guys that were all about

992
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,560
the commodity price and were
predictors of things.

993
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,480
Some of them ended up the
Roosters and lots of them ended

994
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,800
up feather dusters, right?
Like it's, it's just, it's just

995
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:23,000
heads I win tails, you lose with
the shareholders money, right.

996
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,920
But the guys that were there.
And so, you know, one of you

997
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,480
know, one of my kind of heroes,
if you like, through the 1980s,

998
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,800
nineties was, you know, in terms
of looking at people who did

999
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,560
well, was Robert Dekrepny, who
built a big business in a down

1000
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,480
market.
You know, and one of the reasons

1001
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,240
that he always hedged and he
always had like certainty

1002
00:48:41,240 --> 00:48:44,720
because he's he's an accountant.
So he was driven by like, I got

1003
00:48:44,720 --> 00:48:46,920
to know what my costs are.
I got to know what the margins

1004
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:47,960
are.
I've got to be able to survive.

1005
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,360
And if I survive here, I
remember someone saying to him

1006
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,400
right near the bottom, well,
what if gold's going out of

1007
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,520
fashion?
And it was very common in the

1008
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,160
late 90s for people to say gold
is, you know, it's, it's the,

1009
00:48:57,880 --> 00:48:59,480
it's the barbarous relic, it's
whatever.

1010
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,080
And he said, look, if, if in
5000 history of gold, I happened

1011
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,440
to have been born and want to be
a gold miner in the time where

1012
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,840
gold loses relevance, that's,
that's on me.

1013
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:08,280
But I don't think that's the
case.

1014
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:10,520
I think there's life of gold.
So I've just got to stay in

1015
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,520
business until the market turns
around, right.

1016
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,680
And so when I first started the
business, my original business

1017
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,520
partner in Noah's Rule, I said
to him, what we do, what we want

1018
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,880
to do, our message will resonate
with people who believe, behave

1019
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:24,800
like owners and not like
operators.

1020
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:29,880
And I think in Perth, I mean
mostly people, even if they're

1021
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:32,320
not significant shareholders and
some of our clients have been

1022
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,640
very substantial shareholders of
their company.

1023
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:38,320
If they behave like an owner,
you can see in the way they do

1024
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:41,680
things and they're still here in
the longevity and they think

1025
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,200
about cash flow and they want a
hedge.

1026
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,440
And they say to shareholders, I
know you don't like hedging and

1027
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,120
I know you don't like to be up
the upside, but you rent this

1028
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,000
stock like you're, you're using
this to rent an exposure to

1029
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:52,440
gold.
You could be gone tomorrow.

1030
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,440
I'm committed for the next 5
years to build a business in

1031
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:59,560
Africa, in Perth, in WA.
I'm going to behave like that.

1032
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:03,560
When I went to to North America,
we did one really good project

1033
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,600
financing in North America for a
company called Atlantic that

1034
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,200
Subarba took over.
And we believed it was the

1035
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,160
shining example of how you could
use hedging to do things

1036
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,000
differently in North America.
Naively went and thought, right,

1037
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,720
I'm going to go to North America
and just show these guys how

1038
00:50:16,720 --> 00:50:19,400
they can do things differently.
And we just got our ass handed

1039
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,200
till we came home, you know,
like it was no point.

1040
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:25,120
But in Toronto, I met people who
in my observation were all

1041
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,000
agents.
They were optioned up.

1042
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:28,960
And it was heads I win, tails
you lose.

1043
00:50:29,240 --> 00:50:33,120
Whereas in Vancouver, you meet
people that behave more like

1044
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,760
owners because it's more the
entrepreneurial market.

1045
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:37,560
It's the smallest.
So Vancouver and Perth are very

1046
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,680
similar.
And in my observation, in my

1047
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:41,800
experience, Toronto and
Melbourne are very similar.

1048
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,320
The further you are from the
mine or the kind of thing, the,

1049
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,000
the bigger the disaster.
There's been lots of disasters

1050
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:49,520
that out of St.
Kilda Road, right?

1051
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,360
And Melbourne companies that
just kind of the management

1052
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:53,280
think they know what they're
doing.

1053
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,000
So for us in our business, it's
been very important.

1054
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:58,080
Like, I'm, I'm, I'm, we're
having our 20th birthday on

1055
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:00,880
Thursday night, and we got happy
birthday.

1056
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:01,560
Sure.
Thank you.

1057
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,080
Yeah.
And, and we're very excited.

1058
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,000
The whole team's coming over.
Eight of us will be there, and

1059
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,200
we've got about 100 and 2000 and
30 people coming.

1060
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:09,960
And I've got to give a small
speech.

1061
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,360
And, you know, our business plan
when we started was do good work

1062
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:14,680
for good people.
And that's all we've done for

1063
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:16,840
the last 20 years.
And I, you know, like, I think,

1064
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,120
you know, the good people is, is
really what it's all about.

1065
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,200
And to your point, it's about
people who behave like they're

1066
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:26,480
an owner, even if they're not
substantial.

1067
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,640
Shareholder, do you need an MC
for the party or?

1068
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:35,000
No one is taking that microphone
out of my hand, My business, my

1069
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:38,240
microphone.
I'm not paying for the drinks

1070
00:51:38,240 --> 00:51:40,200
for 130 people.
Having someone else tell the

1071
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,920
jokes.
But thank you for offering no.

1072
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:47,640
Worries Who's got a charger?
Speaking of good assets and high

1073
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:52,840
salaries, Patrick, Next Gen Sky.
Yeah, I bought some NextGen the

1074
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:54,320
other day.
Well, not, not the other day.

1075
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:55,800
I think I, I bought it on the
pull back.

1076
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,080
I, I like NextGen.
I think at some point, you know,

1077
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:01,360
it's such an awesome asset, at
some point it will be developed.

1078
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,240
But the $1,000,000 question is
when and.

1079
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:05,000
Who?
Yeah.

1080
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,960
But this is the the perfect
company to talk about after what

1081
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,400
Sean just said.
Does the asset knows who owns it

1082
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:14,320
at NextGen well?
It's actually interesting it it

1083
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:17,200
it strangely.
Trav, you are very interested in

1084
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,520
NextGen at the moment.
I want to do an episode on it.

1085
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:21,880
Daddy discovered by an Aussie
bloke too.

1086
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:24,920
Discovered by an Aussie bloke.
Have been very public in my

1087
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:26,600
critique of that management
team.

1088
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,720
Think that they stand for
everything that I dislike about

1089
00:52:29,720 --> 00:52:33,800
our industry and can objectively
point to instances of that over

1090
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,720
time.
You know what Formula One they?

1091
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:39,280
Actually own a lot of as a as a
result of their like, you know,

1092
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:45,640
strategy to maybe, Yeah, as a
result of their strategy, they

1093
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,800
happen to own a fair chunk of
the company now, which might

1094
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:52,680
actually incentivize them to act
like owners a mixed, which,

1095
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,440
yeah, it's a very strange thing
to think about.

1096
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,040
Yeah, yeah, I'll say.
Yeah, like paying paying

1097
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,720
yourself for extortionate stock
options over time.

1098
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,160
They actually own a fair chunk
of the company.

1099
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,640
Yeah, how much do they owe?
Let it be worth 50 bucks.

1100
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:12,080
Yeah.
What's who do you think's going

1101
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,920
to buy?
Do you think they're going to

1102
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,200
develop them?
That's super interesting.

1103
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,880
You know, like Paladin trying to
get their hands on Fishing's

1104
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,920
Fishing's project, which is like
right next door.

1105
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,680
I don't know.
I mean, I think I don't think

1106
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,680
they're going to build it
because it just seems so

1107
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:33,480
complicated and I don't think
they have the expertise.

1108
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:38,280
Obviously Lee Courier could
probably employ people to do it,

1109
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:43,280
but there's there's so few
people in the uranium industry

1110
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:45,480
it's it's going to be difficult
to do that.

1111
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:49,040
I think the smart thing to do
would probably just be sell it

1112
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,960
at some point, you know, in the
next couple of years to a

1113
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,720
Chemico or even a Paladin.
We'll see what happens.

1114
00:53:54,720 --> 00:54:00,040
But someone else who who then
develops develops it.

1115
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:01,840
How they go?
Can they sell?

1116
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:05,800
Can they sell it without
selling's?

1117
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:07,680
Different to getting taken over
I guess.

1118
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:10,400
Yeah, Yeah.
Well, who knows, I mean if they

1119
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,960
get a good offer, they'll sell.
I mean, shareholders would love

1120
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:16,960
to be taken out at some point
given.

1121
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:20,080
Some.
If if spot was to RIP like one

1122
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,920
to back to all time highs 107
and then you know, maybe it

1123
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:28,040
marches towards 12130, there'll
be more M&A for sure.

1124
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,480
There's already been a fair bit.
I I think there's going to be

1125
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,080
more.
I don't think that's going to

1126
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:37,680
stop.
Why isn't there any as much near

1127
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:39,720
my Paladin?
Fission, obviously, but that's

1128
00:54:39,720 --> 00:54:44,680
the that's the I guess you've
got Jabaluka and NextGen.

1129
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,880
They're the jewels in the crown
for uranium.

1130
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,360
I'm seeing what's happening
possibly with Jabaluka.

1131
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:56,800
Nextgen's the, it's the stand
out on a, on a like not on a

1132
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,960
operational front.
It's obviously it's in a fucking

1133
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:05,120
cold area and it's deep and it's
extremely high grade, which may

1134
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:08,680
present some challenges, but it
is the highest grade, highest

1135
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:12,880
quality ore body in the world
that will produce the most per

1136
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:17,200
year of any uranium mine.
I feel like the only company

1137
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:20,760
that could that has any
experience that could could

1138
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,960
figure out how to do it is
probably Kamiko.

1139
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:27,120
Kamiko Rano JV similar to the
other ones.

1140
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:30,600
Do they have underground sort of
super deep underground in an

1141
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:33,880
icy, you know, Wonderland as
well?

1142
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,680
I mean, it's super niche sort of
mining, I would think.

1143
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:42,120
I think I just feel like Kamiko
would be the only ones that

1144
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,200
could make it work.
It would be the logical.

1145
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:48,280
They'd be the logical developer
in my.

1146
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,480
Opinion.
So as in, but do you think it'll

1147
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,800
be the same structure as like
Cigar Lake, whereas like Kamika

1148
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:58,360
are the operator, but it's the
JV arrangement with Orano to do

1149
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:01,600
it or do you think Kamika will
go 100%?

1150
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:05,320
Potentially.
Who knows.

1151
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,040
Who knows?
That's, I don't know.

1152
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,280
I mean, yeah, it could be.
It could well be Irano getting

1153
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,360
involved as well.
That would make sense as well.

1154
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,760
Because they need something
after not getting kicked out of

1155
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,320
Niger larger.
Yeah.

1156
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:19,600
Can they fund it?
Because they'd take out three

1157
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:23,720
hundred $300 million bond issue
the other day, didn't they?

1158
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:26,400
So.
Irano yeah, and but they could

1159
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:28,520
Kamiko fund 100%.
Script.

1160
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,840
It's not a state owned company
script, Yeah.

1161
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:34,640
Oh, but now.
But then fund the development.

1162
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:39,280
Sorry, fund the Yeah.
Development.

1163
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,640
The JV thing might be a project
finance.

1164
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:43,920
Like, yeah, yeah.
I'm going to offer a slightly

1165
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,520
different, like a just a broader
perspective that at the moment

1166
00:56:47,720 --> 00:56:52,160
broad commodities are
underperforming equities to the

1167
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,840
worst extent, general equities
to the worst extent ever in the

1168
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,960
last 125 years, right?
Probably longer, but we only got

1169
00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:00,840
data going back to 1900.
No one gives a shit about

1170
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,320
commodities in the world.
That's that's the reality.

1171
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:06,440
It's so easy to make money in
general equities.

1172
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:11,080
It's so easy to just to be long,
the index to be long, the S&P to

1173
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,560
be long, the Dow to be long,
whatever that there's, it's,

1174
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:18,960
there's not worth adventuring
over into all these other

1175
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,600
spaces.
So we all operate in this space

1176
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:23,800
and we love it and we all get
very excited about mining, but

1177
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,680
like the whole market
capitalization of every mining

1178
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:29,080
company in the world is 2/5 of F
all right.

1179
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:34,960
And and so we need for it not to
be so easy to make money in

1180
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,560
general equities.
We need like like right now it's

1181
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:42,080
like 98 or 1999 where you kind
of go, it's coming, it's coming.

1182
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,760
But then you have another two
years of the equity market just

1183
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,040
going nuts, like a melt up or
whatever they're talking about

1184
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:50,360
now in general equities.
But 98 and 99, like mining just

1185
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,120
sunk.
Everything was a disaster.

1186
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:55,120
Aussies at 50.
And then four or five years

1187
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:56,400
later the whole world's changed,
right?

1188
00:57:56,400 --> 00:58:00,800
But what happened isthe.com
bubble 1st or it rolled over and

1189
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:04,280
people went, oh, OK.
And you know, you guys worked in

1190
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:08,880
the asset world and you look,
it's all about relative value.

1191
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,400
It's all about going from 1
sector to another.

1192
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,600
And when one sector is
outperforming, like all of a

1193
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,840
sudden bitcoins outperforming
gold, gold comes off becoming,

1194
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,320
you know, everyone chases
whatever's hot if that's the

1195
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:21,880
pair you're looking at.
I think for this uranium stuff,

1196
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:25,480
for everything, like for mining
generally until general equities

1197
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:29,160
actually rolls over and then all
that some of that money comes

1198
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:32,880
across this tiny little market.
It's not, won't take very much

1199
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,920
to create the, and then the, the
appetite will be there to do

1200
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:39,880
deals and share prices will be
high enough to attract more

1201
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:41,200
money.
I mean, in many cases at the

1202
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,480
moment, the problem you have is
the market capitalizations of

1203
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:46,520
most mining companies are not
large enough to let a lot of the

1204
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:48,400
world's largest investors even
invest in them.

1205
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:50,560
They can't even invest because
the market cap's below some

1206
00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:52,160
level.
One of the things that I think

1207
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:54,360
is going to be really exciting
when we have a mining boom and

1208
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:56,640
we will have another mining boom
because we've under invested in

1209
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:01,160
resources dramatically.
Is that just as people in the

1210
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,680
business who actually think they
understand how mining companies

1211
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:06,000
are valued, just when companies
get to the point where you go,

1212
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:08,880
oh, that company's overvalued.
It'll just be getting on the

1213
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,800
radar of some generalist
investor who's now decided he

1214
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:14,320
needs an exposure to mining
goes, oh, it's it's market cap

1215
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,680
is more than two billion.
We can now invest right?

1216
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:18,400
And before you know it, it'll
have a market cap of four

1217
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:21,000
billion and we'll all be going
what went on.

1218
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:27,160
But but until those that money
comes across, no one cares.

1219
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:28,240
This is the problem that we
have.

1220
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,840
No one really cares about our
sector fully.

1221
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:33,600
Specialists do, but the broader
market could care less.

1222
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:36,520
I didn't even say like one of
the major banks.

1223
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:39,200
It would have been like last
week or the week before they put

1224
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:43,800
out this report on how how funds
are the city.

1225
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:46,040
Are they overweight,
underweight, you know,

1226
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:47,640
resources, commodities, things
like that.

1227
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,240
And it was just an every
instance.

1228
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:52,600
So underweight, especially like
that.

1229
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:56,160
These are more the generals.
So underweight commodities and

1230
00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:57,920
and resources is just
ridiculous.

1231
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:01,800
And as you say, shown like you
know when when that time comes.

1232
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:04,400
It'll just be.
On just hold on Ellie, you're

1233
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:05,360
small cap.
Oh, you're.

1234
01:00:06,000 --> 01:00:06,360
Kidding.
Why?

1235
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:10,520
Know what's happened to her.
But you know, but it but it, but

1236
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:13,600
it kind of makes sense.
Like people have been asking me

1237
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:17,280
the question the last couple of
years, like, you know, you look

1238
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:21,400
at gold, well, gold's going up.
Why aren't gold shares going up?

1239
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:24,040
You go, well, gold's going up
because gold's going up.

1240
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:27,480
But the people and the glib
answer is will the people who

1241
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:31,680
buy gold don't buy gold shares?
It's not in their mandate,

1242
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:32,480
right?
So.

1243
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:35,000
It's as simple as that.
Exploration companies.

1244
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:37,400
So, yeah, and that's right.
And all the ones I own.

1245
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:41,920
But you know, like, yeah, you
look and you go, yeah, it

1246
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:44,800
should, they should be linked.
And at some point they probably

1247
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:46,880
will.
But the reality is if central

1248
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,640
banks are buying gold and Asians
and Indians and other people who

1249
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:52,280
want to buy gold or buy gold and
people are buying gold for that

1250
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:55,560
reason, they're buying gold.
And the only time if you're

1251
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:57,840
like, you know, I had this
wonderful expression just keeps

1252
01:00:57,840 --> 01:00:59,000
rattling around my head.
And there's so many

1253
01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:00,160
applications.
I was talking to a client

1254
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:02,480
recently and I said to him, you
should hedge your gold.

1255
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:04,360
But if you do hedge your gold,
you should hedge the fuel as

1256
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:05,160
well.
And he goes, what?

1257
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:08,760
And give my boss two reasons to
sack me now now the gold oil

1258
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:12,000
ratio is at 35 like it's
perfectly logical that you

1259
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:14,200
should be head you know you
should selling gold and buying

1260
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:18,240
fuel like the gold oil ratio is
nuts right at best in 120 years

1261
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:20,720
but but I love it he goes it's
two reasons to sack me.

1262
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:23,920
Well, if you're a generalist
investor and you buy some gold,

1263
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:25,880
that's fine.
But if you buy gold equities and

1264
01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:28,480
gold equities aren't even
outperforming gold, just giving

1265
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:30,360
your investors another reason to
take their money back.

1266
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:34,520
So until commodities or all the
other risks associated with

1267
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:37,400
them, including management and
whatever else and geography,

1268
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:42,440
look at resolute, you know, the,
the, the political risk just

1269
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:45,760
while gold is going on a tear.
Like, why buy gold equities you

1270
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,120
if you can just buy gold?
And in fact, why buy gold if you

1271
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:50,640
can buy general equities, which
is your mandate?

1272
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:52,440
The gold has been outperforming
general equity.

1273
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:55,000
So we need a massive like
someone's got to jump on the

1274
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:57,480
other end of the seesaw and then
all of a sudden we take off.

1275
01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:02,320
But on out on that Goldman Sachs
commodities index versus S&P

1276
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:05,400
like the the Goering and Rosen
sweats guys publishing whatever

1277
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:08,120
we've been in a 10 or 12 year
down trend like our time is

1278
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:10,960
coming, but it's like watching
Pate dry waiting for the turn.

1279
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,800
But that one day thought about
it that way, like, yeah, the

1280
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:16,560
people who are buying gold and
making that gold price go up,

1281
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:19,040
they don't give a shit about
gold exploration.

1282
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:21,320
No stocks.
They're two different sets of

1283
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,200
people.
I've yeah, I've I've never sort

1284
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:24,760
of thought about.
It yeah, it's just a totally

1285
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:28,160
different group of people and
they're buying gold and they're

1286
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:29,920
making money.
Japanese people looking to

1287
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,120
protect themselves from a
weakening yen.

1288
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:34,360
They, they're not buying gold
stocks, they're just buying

1289
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:35,560
gold.
They're going down the shop,

1290
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,320
they're buying gold.
And so at some point, like the

1291
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:41,800
gap has to close, but to do
that, gold producers actually

1292
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:44,920
have to not let their costs run
up as fast as the gold price.

1293
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,880
And, and mate, you know, and
just, and, and that's part of

1294
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:49,000
the problem.
Like all of a sudden people

1295
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,480
talking about $25128.00 all in
sustaining costs.

1296
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,880
Like with a straight face it.
Wasn't above that price Yeah

1297
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:57,400
30,000 you're going to be the
yeah 2000 have.

1298
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:00,280
Have you got any other?
60s and year 40, I mean, I agree

1299
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:02,440
there's a, there's an element of
that where you have to, you have

1300
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:04,040
to have to have those, those
views.

1301
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,880
Now it's it's a bit different.
What is your 20th birthday?

1302
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:10,560
Have you got any other sort of
contraindicators from your

1303
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,920
clients not to throw them under
the bus, but are there trends

1304
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,600
you've noticed 20 years in the
business now that you know, we

1305
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,960
we might be at Inflexion point
might be a bit grandiose, but

1306
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,040
are there?
Not a signs, not amongst the

1307
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:25,720
owners.
Very good, very good.

1308
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:28,800
Actually, Pat, I've got a
question for you.

1309
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,800
This is completely left field
from what we've been discussing

1310
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:40,840
today, but the world of Mintwits
and Twitter, so the context, I

1311
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:45,000
had never used Twitter before
until like 3-4 months ago.

1312
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:47,840
I think it was basically a
precondition of my employment.

1313
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:53,320
Not from.
Me, and I have to say it is.

1314
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:58,400
It is completely just just
baffled by just this mint wit

1315
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:05,560
world of just having access into
insights of people who you don't

1316
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:07,760
necessarily have to be, you
know, the traditional, you know,

1317
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:11,080
fund manager and, you know, with
a commerce degree and this and

1318
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:14,440
that, but people providing
really interesting insights and

1319
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:16,120
that's, you know, available to
everybody.

1320
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:18,920
But then you've got, you know,
school boys kicking each other

1321
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:22,160
in the nuts, arguing over
something stupid, and then names

1322
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:27,040
like, talk me through that.
How did you sort of get involved

1323
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:28,960
in that world?
Why do you love that world so

1324
01:04:28,960 --> 01:04:31,720
much?
I actually got Twitter.

1325
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:35,520
I probably first got Twitter
like maybe 10 years ago.

1326
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:39,080
And then I didn't use it for
like probably six years.

1327
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:42,160
And then it was around the time
I started researching the

1328
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,920
uranium trade that I think I
probably jumped onto Twitter.

1329
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,640
At the same time, maybe someone
said, oh, there's this guy you

1330
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:49,600
should follow.
Maybe it was Quakes or something

1331
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:51,680
like that.
And then, and then, you know,

1332
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:55,680
you see, you start, you know,
sharing a few tweets and you're

1333
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,680
doing a bit of research and more
and more people have come to

1334
01:04:59,680 --> 01:05:02,360
Twitter, I feel like, and it's
probably not just commodities,

1335
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:04,480
but probably all sorts of niche
industries.

1336
01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:10,160
I feel like Twitter is just
this, this just melting pot of,

1337
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:14,880
of people from industry and, and
you know, sell side and buy side

1338
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:18,640
and retail investors and
sophisticated investors and all

1339
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:21,400
sorts of people that just come
here to just chat about whatever

1340
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:25,040
it is that they're invested in.
And you know, uranium Twitter

1341
01:05:25,040 --> 01:05:28,960
specifically has been an awesome
place to just get information

1342
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:32,360
off some really smart people.
Fund managers will get back to

1343
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:36,120
you super quick.
You know, it's just, yeah, it's

1344
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,280
been incredible, incredible
journey.

1345
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,680
And I mean, you know, I had a
few few 100 followers back in

1346
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:45,160
2020 and now I've got like 9000.
Most of them are just uranium

1347
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:49,320
degenerates.
That's fine because it's it's,

1348
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:52,560
it's just super fun to be on
there and you learn so much.

1349
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:56,240
But you know, a lot of stuff
gets repeated as well on there,

1350
01:05:56,240 --> 01:06:00,360
but you know, it's, it's, it's a
good place to be so.

1351
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:03,720
That's a good idea.
Fund managers on there under

1352
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:06,640
pseudonyms or they're they're
mostly on there as their name

1353
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:09,440
or.
I think, you know, like Art Hyde

1354
01:06:09,440 --> 01:06:11,640
shares a lot of stuff.
There's obviously uranium

1355
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:14,280
insider Justin Hume, Everyone
knows who he is.

1356
01:06:14,280 --> 01:06:16,440
There's John Quakes, who remains
a mystery man.

1357
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:20,640
No one knows who he is, but he
just shares info you know

1358
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:22,640
there's.
Some pretty bloody He's

1359
01:06:22,720 --> 01:06:25,520
obviously got some good
connections because he's got

1360
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:29,240
some early shit coming out.
I don't know how he tweets that

1361
01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:31,800
much and that often.
It's just incredible.

1362
01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:33,560
He must have automated
something.

1363
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:37,040
But then there's, there's guys
like, you know, heaps of guys

1364
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:40,160
that just do their own research
and build their own spreadsheets

1365
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:45,280
and they've got like spot versus
long term price versus medium

1366
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,240
term price plotted out over the
last four years.

1367
01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:52,040
And they've got, you know,
spreadsheets on everything and,

1368
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:55,000
and it can be shared between
people pretty easily on Twitter.

1369
01:06:55,000 --> 01:06:57,000
So I.
Had I had a phone call today,

1370
01:06:57,000 --> 01:07:01,320
Patty with a yeah, a you know,
Twitter, a Twitter like soon

1371
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:05,280
soon synonymous person who only
has a couple 100 followers and

1372
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:09,320
just yeah, I actually have a
different view to him on on a

1373
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:10,640
thing that had a had a call with
him.

1374
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:14,640
It turns out he's a he he
fucking works for he works for

1375
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:16,400
either Millennium or Citadel,
don't know which one, but one of

1376
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:18,080
the two.
He's he's clearly managing

1377
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:21,280
fucking billions of dollars so.
Yeah, how do you, Patty with

1378
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:22,960
you?
Like uranium specific like

1379
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:25,600
yours, but it applies to any
bloody commodity.

1380
01:07:25,600 --> 01:07:30,000
How do you, I guess, scour
Twitter for the information for

1381
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:32,640
people that you don't follow?
What's your most efficient way

1382
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:35,760
of getting all the info?
Be honest.

1383
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:37,960
Probably just scroll the living
fuck out of it.

1384
01:07:38,720 --> 01:07:41,760
It's just, yeah, there's certain
people I follow that that have

1385
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:44,080
provided a lot of good
information over the years and

1386
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:46,520
they, they tweet good stuff and
they, you know, they have

1387
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:49,440
specific sort of information
they share.

1388
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:52,560
And I follow those guys.
But hashtag uranium and you can

1389
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:54,120
pretty much find anything you
need.

1390
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:59,440
But have you got any what's
what's tickling the whistle at

1391
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:01,600
the moment in the world of
uranium that we haven't talked

1392
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:03,320
about that might have been a bit
left field?

1393
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:07,600
I just feel like it's it's, it's
been talked about to death.

1394
01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:10,640
Just need the just need the spot
price to start moving again.

1395
01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:13,880
I don't know.
Just make that happen, everyone.

1396
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:17,960
It will happen eventually.
It just, yeah, at the moment

1397
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:22,120
it's not happening for whatever
reason, but I remain committed

1398
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:25,279
to the trade and optimistic.
So we'll see what happens.

1399
01:08:25,279 --> 01:08:27,800
You just need sentiment to turn
and maybe there's Paladin stuff

1400
01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:30,040
today.
Maybe that will be the turning

1401
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:31,120
point.
We will see.

1402
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:33,040
Very good.
What are we?

1403
01:08:33,040 --> 01:08:34,600
What are we going to finish up
on?

1404
01:08:35,279 --> 01:08:36,720
I've got I've got one for you,
Sean.

1405
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:44,080
It's like in the aftermath of
Trump gold's sold off

1406
01:08:44,479 --> 01:08:46,479
substantially.
Is this, is this, is this a

1407
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:51,399
short term, a short term kind of
reaction or is it or is there

1408
01:08:51,399 --> 01:08:53,920
sort of substance to the the
gold sell off?

1409
01:08:54,760 --> 01:08:56,680
Gold, gold, gold's in a bull
market.

1410
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:03,279
This, you know, it was hot
running in it was very, very hot

1411
01:09:04,600 --> 01:09:06,560
on our scoring that can only go
to six.

1412
01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:09,960
It was in the high fives on both
the daily and weekly basis.

1413
01:09:09,960 --> 01:09:11,800
So everyone was everyone was
long.

1414
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:15,760
The interesting thing was we
said a no doubt called coin toss

1415
01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:17,080
to our clients a couple of weeks
ago.

1416
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:21,319
And we we showed the six weeks
before and the and the six

1417
01:09:21,319 --> 01:09:23,720
months after the last two
elections.

1418
01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:28,359
And the interesting thing was
actually in the case of the

1419
01:09:28,359 --> 01:09:31,840
Biden, so Trump, we had an 8%
move on the day that Trump's

1420
01:09:32,240 --> 01:09:35,319
original thing, like every.
So the common wisdom before

1421
01:09:35,319 --> 01:09:38,560
Trump was elected.
And I, I had a, a meeting that

1422
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:42,160
will be burned in my memory
forever where somebody else was

1423
01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:44,080
advising one of our clients.
We were in a room and we were

1424
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:45,160
saying we thought they should
hedge.

1425
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:46,800
And Aussie dollar gold was
around 1800.

1426
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:48,040
And it made perfect sense for
the hedge.

1427
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,520
And this guy goes, Oh, no, you
shouldn't hedge because what if

1428
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:53,240
we have a Black Swan event?
Like Donald Trump becomes

1429
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:55,680
president?
And I said, well, it can't be a

1430
01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:57,640
Black Swan event.
It's a 2 horse race.

1431
01:09:58,240 --> 01:10:00,040
But anyway, put that to one
side.

1432
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:02,320
Who says it's going to go up?
Everyone says it's going to go

1433
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:03,520
up.
Like that was the, so the, the

1434
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:06,080
common knowledge ahead of Trump
was if Trump becomes president,

1435
01:10:06,080 --> 01:10:08,760
gold's going to go nuts.
Well, by the end of his four

1436
01:10:08,760 --> 01:10:11,800
years, it had gone nuts.
But on the day that, that it was

1437
01:10:11,800 --> 01:10:15,600
announced, he, you know, it, it,
it was 8% on the day and it

1438
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:17,840
finished almost unchanged.
And by the time he was

1439
01:10:17,840 --> 01:10:20,400
inaugurated, it was lower.
And two years after he'd been in

1440
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:22,960
office, it still hadn't made new
highs, right.

1441
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:26,960
Interestingly, with Biden, what
happened was there was no on the

1442
01:10:26,960 --> 01:10:30,960
day, the 1st when Biden got in,
made it to the weekend, was up a

1443
01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:34,800
little bit, and then just like
last night, $100 off on the

1444
01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:36,640
Monday.
And for the next six weeks, it

1445
01:10:36,640 --> 01:10:39,440
just peddled off and it ended up
being $200 lower.

1446
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:41,600
Umm, Aussie dollar gold was 600
lower.

1447
01:10:41,920 --> 01:10:44,320
Because if you remember, Biden
was going to be very good for

1448
01:10:44,480 --> 01:10:46,840
the relations with China and
very good for the Aussie.

1449
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:49,080
So the Aussie went up about 5 or
6 cents.

1450
01:10:49,080 --> 01:10:51,840
So Aussie went up, gold came off
alligator jewels closed for

1451
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:56,080
Aussie doll goes and we shed 600
bucks in in between the election

1452
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:57,960
and Christmas.
Now that doesn't look like

1453
01:10:57,960 --> 01:10:59,800
that's the case today.
We don't see the Aussie going

1454
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:02,840
madly away.
But this is a correction in a

1455
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:05,840
bull market in in our view by
our measure, our weekly score is

1456
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:08,720
still very strong.
You know, it's it's the averages

1457
01:11:08,720 --> 01:11:11,120
all look good, like, you know,
like gold looks good and gold is

1458
01:11:11,120 --> 01:11:13,920
still outperforming general
equities for the last four or

1459
01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:15,960
five years.
Like I've been really big on 16

1460
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:17,480
on the Dow.
I like to follow the Dow gold

1461
01:11:17,480 --> 01:11:20,520
ratio still in the 1617.
So it's still all right.

1462
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:23,800
But I think a bit of hot money's
run back, you know, to to other

1463
01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:25,480
markets.
Like somebody said the other

1464
01:11:25,480 --> 01:11:28,160
day, I can't believe, I think
you said copper.

1465
01:11:28,720 --> 01:11:30,720
I can't believe copper got sold
off from the election.

1466
01:11:30,720 --> 01:11:33,600
I heard on one of the podcasts
and it it actually not about

1467
01:11:33,600 --> 01:11:35,480
copper.
It's about someone wants to own

1468
01:11:35,480 --> 01:11:37,120
something else more.
Do you know what I mean?

1469
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:40,560
Like so they're not actually
saying I think I don't I don't

1470
01:11:40,560 --> 01:11:42,960
want to cop because of Trump.
They just go, well, I've only

1471
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:45,720
got this much money from the
from my investors and I need to

1472
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:47,520
get longer the I need to get in
Bitcoin.

1473
01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,040
I need to get longer Bitcoin.
I need to get longer general

1474
01:11:50,040 --> 01:11:51,360
equities.
I've got to sell some copper.

1475
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:54,160
So it's it's quite often the
case that if you're fascinated

1476
01:11:54,160 --> 01:11:56,640
by 1 market yet Ben had a shape
and it goes down.

1477
01:11:56,640 --> 01:11:59,000
You can't believe the idiots
sort of selling it, but they're

1478
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:00,360
buying something that you never.
Understand.

1479
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:01,960
To be honest, I've never never
thought.

1480
01:12:02,000 --> 01:12:03,960
Of a everything, Everything is a
relative trait.

1481
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:07,040
Every, every seller's a buy,
right, and there's no money on

1482
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:09,160
the sidelines like it's, you
know, like because the money had

1483
01:12:09,160 --> 01:12:10,200
to come in on the other side,
right.

1484
01:12:10,200 --> 01:12:11,840
It's just where people watch
bucket.

1485
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:14,240
People choose to put their money
in.

1486
01:12:14,240 --> 01:12:16,680
And I think gold is still one of
the least smelly buckets.

1487
01:12:17,120 --> 01:12:20,440
And I'm not going to say it's
dangerous in my line of work to

1488
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:22,880
to actually say how bullish
where I think the gold price

1489
01:12:22,880 --> 01:12:24,800
could go.
But I mean, I I think the gold

1490
01:12:24,800 --> 01:12:25,880
price could be much higher in
the future.

1491
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:28,720
I have no problem with that, but
I also think it could probably

1492
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:32,000
be lower before it gets there
than most people imagine as

1493
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:33,240
well, right.
Like that's and that's the

1494
01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:34,640
thing.
And one of these we are trying

1495
01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:37,080
to get our clients to do is stop
thinking in hundreds or dollars

1496
01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:39,360
per oz and start thinking
percentage terms because now

1497
01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:41,880
we're getting into numbers where
it's really dangerous to think

1498
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:43,920
about 100 bucks. 100 bucks is
just like that, but it's not a

1499
01:12:43,920 --> 01:12:46,680
big percentage.
Buy it was like 50 bucks at 12.

1500
01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:48,960
Yeah, Yeah, you've got, you've
got to start thinking in, in

1501
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:50,880
percentage terms, you've got to
start thinking about how your

1502
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:54,200
margin relates and that and how
far it can move because 20% move

1503
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:56,440
from here now like when we look
at where people are starting to

1504
01:12:56,440 --> 01:12:58,960
talk about all in sustaining
costs, you know, 20% move from

1505
01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:01,040
here and it yeah, it starts to
get pretty squeezy, right.

1506
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:03,040
So the 20% retracement is just
healthy.

1507
01:13:03,320 --> 01:13:06,200
Yeah, and I like that
explanation because in future

1508
01:13:06,200 --> 01:13:08,600
now, if I can't, we can't
understand why something's going

1509
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:11,000
up or down, I'll be like, well,
obviously the fucking money went

1510
01:13:11,000 --> 01:13:11,560
elsewhere.
Yeah.

1511
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,560
And I've got the explanation.
Wow, fuck.

1512
01:13:14,920 --> 01:13:17,280
There were more sellers than
buyers.

1513
01:13:18,640 --> 01:13:21,520
I I learned that very early on
when I went to like the I used

1514
01:13:21,520 --> 01:13:22,880
to go to the meetings.
When I first started at

1515
01:13:22,880 --> 01:13:24,280
Rothschild.
I had no idea what was going on.

1516
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:26,920
I couldn't remember the gold
price from one day to the next

1517
01:13:26,920 --> 01:13:30,240
and and someone did like Warred
but this is like 984 and Warred

1518
01:13:30,240 --> 01:13:32,840
flared up in the in the in the
Middle East.

1519
01:13:32,840 --> 01:13:34,320
And I had this boss who just
didn't give a shit.

1520
01:13:34,320 --> 01:13:37,320
He was an expat and he he just
was on his making such good but

1521
01:13:37,320 --> 01:13:38,720
he didn't care what his day job
was.

1522
01:13:38,720 --> 01:13:42,960
But someone said to him like why
is the gold price gone down?

1523
01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:45,080
He goes on selling gold to buy
missiles.

1524
01:13:46,400 --> 01:13:50,960
Fair enough, was probably true.
Very last question, Sean, every

1525
01:13:50,960 --> 01:13:55,480
year you, you, you gift the, you
know, your people, you've worked

1526
01:13:55,480 --> 01:13:58,080
with the a book.
Yep, it's quite a thoughtful

1527
01:13:58,080 --> 01:14:00,320
book.
What's it going to be in 2025?

1528
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:04,920
I cannot, as much as I, I, I'm
very honoured to be a friend of

1529
01:14:04,920 --> 01:14:08,160
the show and it is not revealed.
It will be revealed when, when

1530
01:14:08,160 --> 01:14:09,680
it arrives.
It's one's coming for your

1531
01:14:09,680 --> 01:14:11,320
bookcase.
So I we actually drafted the

1532
01:14:11,320 --> 01:14:13,240
letter, finished the letter
today.

1533
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:15,200
The book has been chosen.
It's a fabulous book.

1534
01:14:15,320 --> 01:14:16,680
Is it a new book or an old book?
It's.

1535
01:14:16,720 --> 01:14:19,400
It's a relatively new book.
I loved every minute of reading

1536
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:21,840
it and I listened to the author
read readers.

1537
01:14:21,840 --> 01:14:23,720
It's not the Chairman Slangel.
That's a good read too.

1538
01:14:23,720 --> 01:14:25,720
I saw Joe Aston speak the other
day as a cracker.

1539
01:14:25,720 --> 01:14:29,400
He's he's just, I wanted him to
to actually brought in my book

1540
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:32,440
to Double Bay Jesus.
I'm getting off track now but I

1541
01:14:32,440 --> 01:14:35,280
said to him Double Bay Jesus is
still my favourite and he goes,

1542
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:37,280
Oh my God, that could be my next
book.

1543
01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:38,840
Yeah, unofficial.
I heard the exact same

1544
01:14:38,840 --> 01:14:40,360
interview.
He said the unofficial, did he?

1545
01:14:40,480 --> 01:14:42,400
All right, so I did he say
something about that?

1546
01:14:42,400 --> 01:14:44,360
Because that's I said to him in
the signing.

1547
01:14:44,360 --> 01:14:49,440
Somebody said what's next?
And he said, oh, there, the

1548
01:14:49,440 --> 01:14:52,520
prospects of writing a biography
on Double Bay Jesus sounds quite

1549
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:54,320
appealing.
All right, well, well, I think I

1550
01:14:54,320 --> 01:14:56,360
might have given him that idea.
I hope he gave me credit for.

1551
01:14:57,560 --> 01:14:59,160
Funny thing was.
And I said I've got a working

1552
01:14:59,160 --> 01:15:00,920
title for it.
I said stay in your lane.

1553
01:15:00,920 --> 01:15:03,560
He said he can never do that.
I said exactly, He's always

1554
01:15:03,560 --> 01:15:05,400
telling people what to do just
'cause you're a billionaire and

1555
01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:06,840
it doesn't shouldn't give
advice, but no.

1556
01:15:06,840 --> 01:15:09,680
So the book is a secret, but
it's a it's a particularly good

1557
01:15:09,680 --> 01:15:11,480
book.
The guy has written a very good

1558
01:15:11,480 --> 01:15:13,520
book in the past.
It's an awesome read.

1559
01:15:13,520 --> 01:15:16,280
The forward is by Neil Ferguson.
That's all I'll say.

1560
01:15:16,680 --> 01:15:19,000
And I've said in the letter, if
you don't like the book or you

1561
01:15:19,000 --> 01:15:20,920
don't think the book's going to
be for you, if you read the

1562
01:15:20,920 --> 01:15:22,840
forward and you can't read the
book, I can't help you.

1563
01:15:23,760 --> 01:15:25,920
You write.
The ascent of money.

1564
01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:26,960
He's written a whole lot of
books.

1565
01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:29,200
He was.
By far he is the best ever.

1566
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:31,440
Diggers is.
Diggers has lots of good things,

1567
01:15:31,440 --> 01:15:34,320
but they're very bad at choosing
keynote speakers.

1568
01:15:34,760 --> 01:15:37,280
But without doubt in my mind
that Neil Ferguson, when he

1569
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:39,480
spoke Diggers, had been the best
keynote speaker ever.

1570
01:15:39,480 --> 01:15:41,440
He's a very interesting guy.
So he wrote the foreword.

1571
01:15:41,440 --> 01:15:44,040
It's a great book.
Yours should be arriving

1572
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:45,800
shortly.
It's but I can't.

1573
01:15:45,800 --> 01:15:47,960
I can't reveal.
I'll save a guess for offline.

1574
01:15:49,760 --> 01:15:52,480
Very good, Patrick from Uranium
Twitter.

1575
01:15:52,480 --> 01:15:54,520
It's been an absolute pleasure,
good Sir.

1576
01:15:55,360 --> 01:15:58,320
Can I finish off with the
uranium override?

1577
01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:01,960
What was that?
Can I do a finish off with the

1578
01:16:01,960 --> 01:16:03,800
uranium underrated?
Overrated.

1579
01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:05,400
Yeah, OK.
Yeah.

1580
01:16:06,440 --> 01:16:09,040
Easy.
Well, Needless to say, Palaban.

1581
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:14,120
Underrated 30% fall.
How can that not be underrated?

1582
01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:15,760
You got to, you got to nibble a
little bit.

1583
01:16:16,040 --> 01:16:20,480
Boss Energy.
Probably sound rated as well.

1584
01:16:20,480 --> 01:16:22,800
And Boss, they've had a bit of a
full back too.

1585
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:27,160
Bannerman.
Yeah, they're one of my biggest

1586
01:16:27,160 --> 01:16:29,040
holdings, so.
Oh, interesting.

1587
01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:31,240
I'd probably say underrated.
Deep yellow.

1588
01:16:33,440 --> 01:16:35,280
Underrated.
Elevate.

1589
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:36,360
They're all going to be
underrated.

1590
01:16:37,960 --> 01:16:39,840
I'm.
Sensing any of them.

1591
01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:43,520
Overrated.
OK, Toro Energy.

1592
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:46,640
Overrated.
Oh God, that's the only one I

1593
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:50,800
own.
Cauldron Ding Ding Ding.

1594
01:16:51,480 --> 01:16:55,120
Cauldron, I would say underrated
just based on, you know, you

1595
01:16:55,120 --> 01:16:59,520
compared Toro with CXU, They're
both sort of in WA, they're both

1596
01:16:59,680 --> 01:17:02,160
development projects.
They both need the lifting of

1597
01:17:02,160 --> 01:17:07,880
the, the ban in WA.
And I think Toro last I checked,

1598
01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:10,160
could be wrong.
You know, that was about 30-40

1599
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:14,400
mil market caps CXU is like 20.
So I just figure, you know, the

1600
01:17:14,400 --> 01:17:16,520
last few years they've sort of
tracked each other.

1601
01:17:16,520 --> 01:17:19,960
So at the moment I would say CXU
is a little bit underrated.

1602
01:17:21,040 --> 01:17:24,720
Aura energy.
Dora Energy, that one I haven't

1603
01:17:24,720 --> 01:17:29,360
particularly liked at all.
Yeah, I probably won't go into

1604
01:17:29,360 --> 01:17:32,880
detail, but I'd say overrated.
There's been some issues with

1605
01:17:33,880 --> 01:17:37,360
stuff about them.
You can go into that on Twitter

1606
01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:39,600
and do some searches and so.
Interesting.

1607
01:17:39,640 --> 01:17:41,360
Next Gen?
I think you know this one.

1608
01:17:42,800 --> 01:17:46,320
Next Gen I'm just like neutral
maybe I suppose.

1609
01:17:47,280 --> 01:17:50,360
I've got one JB's long lost son,
the Twitter profile.

1610
01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:54,880
That's a good one.
I speak to that guy a bit

1611
01:17:54,880 --> 01:17:55,880
actually.
He's not too bad.

1612
01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:57,680
I love the profile picture.
It's.

1613
01:17:57,720 --> 01:18:06,320
Great Kamika.
Well, it's outperforming.

1614
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:08,320
Here considering the
Westinghouse exposure.

1615
01:18:09,680 --> 01:18:12,560
Yeah, I, I, I guess, I don't
know.

1616
01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:14,480
It's, it's outperforming
everything and it probably

1617
01:18:14,480 --> 01:18:17,520
should because it's the, it's
the, it's the gorilla in the in

1618
01:18:17,520 --> 01:18:20,320
the room.
So probably neutral on it, but

1619
01:18:20,320 --> 01:18:23,640
hard to know if if if Kamiko
needs to come down or everything

1620
01:18:23,640 --> 01:18:29,720
else needs to come up a bit.
Considering it's .3 cents ERI.

1621
01:18:30,920 --> 01:18:33,440
Yeah, right now not touching
that you.

1622
01:18:33,840 --> 01:18:35,920
Ever optimist, Maddie, But
that's a donut it.

1623
01:18:37,920 --> 01:18:40,080
Was a donut, it would be trading
at .2 It's.

1624
01:18:42,320 --> 01:18:44,280
A wonderful thing about a
SharePoint 3, it can still fall

1625
01:18:44,280 --> 01:18:51,000
100%.
'Cause Adam prom the free

1626
01:18:51,040 --> 01:18:54,200
flight.
Yeah, I'd probably say neutral

1627
01:18:54,200 --> 01:18:57,520
on on 'cause Adam Prom and Camel
Co same sort of thing.

1628
01:18:58,600 --> 01:18:59,480
Global.
Atomic.

1629
01:19:01,280 --> 01:19:04,760
The US names I don't know a lot
about, but no, I wouldn't touch

1630
01:19:04,760 --> 01:19:06,960
West Africa.
Just as a rule I wouldn't touch

1631
01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:08,720
that.
It's a bit too crazy.

1632
01:19:09,120 --> 01:19:12,400
I'll leave them ones out.
That's that's, that's been a

1633
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:14,080
pleasure for me.
Ripping an overrated,

1634
01:19:14,080 --> 01:19:16,320
underrated, so never contribute
to it at all.

1635
01:19:17,120 --> 01:19:19,240
Here's Maddie.
Right now it's been a pleasure

1636
01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:21,360
mate.
Shawny Russo, Thanks as always,

1637
01:19:21,360 --> 01:19:24,120
mate, Always you have to voted
by your history.

1638
01:19:24,160 --> 01:19:26,360
Just absolutely love it.
Thanks guys here.

1639
01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:29,040
Paddy thanks Paddy Hodoru guys
nice to.

1640
01:19:29,080 --> 01:19:30,200
Meet you, Paddy.
Hodoru.

1641
01:19:30,480 --> 01:19:31,480
Thank you.
Cheers, Sean.

1642
01:19:31,920 --> 01:19:34,480
Thanks guys.
The information contained in

1643
01:19:34,480 --> 01:19:37,280
this episode of Money of Mine is
of general nature only and does

1644
01:19:37,280 --> 01:19:40,080
not take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1645
01:19:40,120 --> 01:19:42,120
or needs of any particular
person.

1646
01:19:42,440 --> 01:19:45,480
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1647
01:19:45,480 --> 01:19:48,520
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1648
01:19:48,520 --> 01:19:52,200
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.