Feb. 3, 2025

All Eyes on Predictive’s Bankan

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We dived into the big news of the day, taking a look at Predictive’s strategic placement to the Lundin Family and Zijin. Matty touched on WA1’s met results, and we closed with a rapid fire on other news stories from around the grounds.


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(0:00:00)Introduction


(0:02:02)Predictive's Strategic Placement


(0:20:37)WA1 Met Results


(0:28:56)Around the Grounds

1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,080
Rhino buddy miners.
It's about half an hour to

2
00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:07,640
around the grounds.
That's that's all you need to

3
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,000
know.
Can't wait, can't wait Jay Say,

4
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:14,040
what do we got today mate?
Bit of bloody, a bit of African,

5
00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,160
Chinese, bloody American stuff
happening, yeah.

6
00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:23,000
The battle Battle for Bank can.
Battle of bad kid one time this

7
00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:27,360
one time at bank can.
I don't dad jokes really coming

8
00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:32,320
out strong in today's.
America Ohh jokes big going on

9
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,080
in bloody Guinea.
This is freaking interesting.

10
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,680
What else you've got WA one back
in the back in the news with

11
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,240
some double digit percentage
growth today, which is bloody.

12
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,480
It's been a bit quiet, old WA
one.

13
00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:45,720
Yeah.
And then now.

14
00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,600
Then.
Enough around the grounds.

15
00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,600
Yeah, very bloody.
Bloody or my bit of gold shit

16
00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:52,680
talk.
Yes.

17
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,520
Gold is bloody, it feels like it
can't go down at the moment,

18
00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,800
which is dangerous, which.
Is very dangerous.

19
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:06,240
I have a hedge fund.
Oh right, tell you JC quick

20
00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:07,600
quiz.
Yes.

21
00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,480
Do you know what 17,000,000
drill meters looks like?

22
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,680
I would not.
I do not, but Swick does our new

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00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,160
partner welcome.
Swick.

24
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:22,680
They've drilled every one of
those 17,000,000 meters and

25
00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:27,120
that's with over 25 years
experience, a flight of 90 rigs.

26
00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,040
That is how you produce
17,000,000 meters, right?

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00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,680
An absolute leader in
underground exploration

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00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,440
drilling.
So wow, yeah, buddy, welcome

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Swick on board because and but
here's a quick way to get to 17

30
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,440
thousand 17,000,000 meters when
the mine goes deeper.

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00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:50,360
Swick's got the deep X division,
of course, that can drill over

32
00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:55,040
2000 meters.
Briggs five times more powerful

33
00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,960
than industry standard.
That is a lot of power.

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00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,760
Ghostwick, part of the Parenti
Group.

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00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,840
Welcome to Money and Mine.
Welcome, Ghostwick.

36
00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:09,199
Right, let's get into it.
Predictive Discovery have just

37
00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:13,680
had 69,000,000 buckaroos
strategically placed into their

38
00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,360
company by.
Lundeen and Zijin ohh.

39
00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,720
This the bloody there a bit of
an ex partnership too we'll get

40
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,440
into later.
Yeah.

41
00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:28,040
So yeah, like like you said
Maddie, $69 million placement,

42
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,920
26 and a half cents, which is so
it's basically done at

43
00:02:31,640 --> 00:02:36,160
yesterday's close on the 3rd of
Feb, small premiums to the five

44
00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,720
and 30 day view UPS.
But more importantly, who, who

45
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,520
tipped in said the Lundeen
family, very well known mining

46
00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,880
family and and investors they
put in around 45,000,000 bucks

47
00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,600
for a 6 1/2% stake in
Predictive.

48
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,480
And then Seijin also, you know,
very well known global miner

49
00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:58,720
headquartered in China invested
around $24 million for a 3 1/2

50
00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:03,440
percent stake in Predictive.
So all those funds are going

51
00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,160
towards pretty much taking
predictive through to final

52
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,640
investment decisions.
So advancing the DFS at their

53
00:03:10,640 --> 00:03:14,440
project bank and progress
progressing enviro social

54
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,680
programs, regional exploration
and and some early development

55
00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:23,520
activities as well.
So they'll have $98 million post

56
00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,720
completion of this rise cash in
the bank and.

57
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:32,040
And bloody all there, well there
all time is it Heist have traded

58
00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:36,280
in five years, $0.30.
They're up, they're up 13% on

59
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,040
the news.
But I guess the more interesting

60
00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,560
part is for people that don't
know is that will until today

61
00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:47,840
ASX listed Perseus, we're a 20%
shareholder predictive now being

62
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,240
diluted back down to about 17
and a bit.

63
00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:52,800
But that is where it's
interesting.

64
00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,320
Perseus looks like that, looked
like they had their foot on it.

65
00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,480
Maybe is a bit of a must,
probably more of a nice to have,

66
00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,520
not a must have.
But this has really thrown a

67
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:05,920
spanner in the works.
Maybe, but we will get into

68
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:06,960
that.
Yeah, Yeah.

69
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,800
So the, the competitive
landscapes certainly change

70
00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,360
there.
But yeah, so as you said, Maddie

71
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:16,399
like it's it's traded as high as
you know $0.30 to up, you know,

72
00:04:16,399 --> 00:04:18,720
about 13% on off the back of the
news.

73
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,640
So I thought it'd be useful just
to do a quick refresher on

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00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,840
predictive and and bank and for
for the money miners.

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00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:30,800
So predictive, they've got about
$700 million market cap today.

76
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:35,360
They have the Bankhand Gold
project in Guinea, which is 85%

77
00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:39,800
owned by the company, 15% by the
Guinea government, about a 5.4

78
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,120
million oz resource, around a 3
million oz reserve,

79
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,480
predominantly open pit with some
underground grading about sort

80
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,080
of 1.6g a tonne.
Yeah, right.

81
00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,040
Go take us through, take me
through the PFS.

82
00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:54,760
Give me the just rattle the
numbers off.

83
00:04:54,840 --> 00:04:56,720
Alrighty, so they.
I'm interested.

84
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,680
They did that on relatively
recently.

85
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:04,200
So they sort of outlined a
269,000 oz per annum sort of

86
00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,440
average production profile over
12 years and that's at an all in

87
00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:13,480
sustaining life of mine of about
US $1100.00 an ounce post tax

88
00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:19,760
MPV five US 1.4 billion and
that's assuming AUS 2300 gold

89
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,520
price.
It's obviously fair bit high now

90
00:05:22,280 --> 00:05:27,160
for AUS 456,000,000 pre
production CapEx.

91
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,760
Yeah, right.
So this, I guess this is one of

92
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:36,560
now that Perseus got Nianzaga,
it's like it's one of the better

93
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,400
undeveloped projects that we
sort of see listed over here in

94
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:41,680
Africa.
Yeah, Yeah.

95
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,720
So we, we did an episode on
undeveloped gold assets in

96
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,600
Africa actually last September.
And at that time, which I still

97
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,920
understand is, is the case,
Bancan is the biggest

98
00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,160
undeveloped gold asset in Africa
based on sort of resource

99
00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,880
answers where that asset is the
company's primary focus.

100
00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:02,120
So, you know, basically not in a
portfolio of a, you know,

101
00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:03,880
producer that's got multiple
assets.

102
00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:09,200
Montage's Konai is a close
second, but they have a bigger

103
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,720
reserve than Predictive.
But we'll get to Montage in

104
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,280
Konai in a little bit.
Oh mate, a big bloody, a big

105
00:06:15,280 --> 00:06:16,520
open pit like this.
Jeez.

106
00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,800
I don't know who the Ghanaian
bloody equivalent of MMS is, but

107
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,320
they need to start tenderer and
on this maybe bloody, maybe MMS

108
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,640
could franchise out into Guinea,
into Guinea.

109
00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,080
I know we keep plugging them to
go overseas to do those

110
00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,040
projects, but they probably they
mightn't want to, but they might

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00:06:31,840 --> 00:06:36,680
consider franchising out as like
open pit mining and technical

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00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,520
expertise to just start ripping
this shit out and making some

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money.
Well, they are putting that DFS

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00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,360
together predictive for bank
hands.

115
00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,200
So MMS might provide some costs
just to help bit of a technical

116
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:50,800
help with it.
You never know.

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00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,600
Like they're mate the Ridge.
He did Rolls Royce of open pit

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00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:58,080
mining and tech services
contracting is mineral bloody

119
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,560
mining service.
Can you believe this?

120
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,960
The trajectory of them, they've
actually gone up before the gold

121
00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,600
price MMS they.
Preceded the gold price rise.

122
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,600
The gold price followed them
right?

123
00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,320
Normally contractors need a
commodity price tower win to get

124
00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,760
going, not MMS.
Bloody what a bloody business.

125
00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:20,920
So love it.
The band can project it's it's

126
00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,680
'cause they've got, they're
pretty much 80% there on the

127
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:25,760
approval side, aren't they?
They've got like the

128
00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,000
environmental approvals done.
It's just gotta be sort of

129
00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,520
rubber stamped by the bloody
government.

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00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,720
Yeah.
So they got the enviro approvals

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00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:37,560
last month and so they're
expecting they're, they call it

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00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,320
like an exploitation or a mining
permit in the in the next three

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00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,800
to six months.
As I mentioned, they're, they're

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00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,040
working on completing a DFS on
Pancam, which is scheduled to

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00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,040
complete later this sort of
calendar year with the idea

136
00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:55,880
being that they, you know, be in
sort of construction phase 2627

137
00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:00,960
with production in 2028.
And as you mentioned, Maddie

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00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:07,200
Perseus, yes, they, they have a
strategic stake in predictive

139
00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:12,240
which they got last year 19.9%
and a large chunk of that stake

140
00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,280
was acquired from a few
Predictive shareholders.

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00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,560
Jamie Boynton, Capital Drilling
and Philip Perry.

142
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:26,400
So pretty much the the majority
of that 19919.9% stake was from

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00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:31,600
then.
And the the the sale, there's a

144
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,559
sale agreement that was
basically put together for

145
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,679
acquiring the shares from those
those groups.

146
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,679
And I'll just touch on a couple
of the key terms of those sale

147
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,720
agreements.
So there's a a profit share

148
00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:50,560
arrangement whereby Perseus and
the sellers will share 5050 on

149
00:08:50,560 --> 00:08:54,480
the profit if Perseus sells any
of the acquired shares in

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00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,080
predictive to a third party.
So like a potential competing a

151
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,840
bidder or a private sale.
But this deal sort of expires

152
00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,640
the 31st of December this year.
There's also a a call option.

153
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:10,560
So if Perseus makes a takeover
off of a predictive part of 31st

154
00:09:10,560 --> 00:09:14,960
December this year at a price
greater than $0.21 a share, then

155
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,040
the sellers can get those
shares, acquire those, back

156
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,200
those shares and accept the
offer or cancel the call option

157
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,480
for a cash fee equal to the
premium.

158
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,800
So what does this mean?
In a nutshell, the sellers

159
00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,400
basically maintain some level of
upside optionality in the event

160
00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:35,520
that Perseus or some other third
party deal occurs above $0.21 a

161
00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,760
share by the end of this year.
Yeah.

162
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:42,360
So if so, those sellers really
want something to happen this

163
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,800
year because otherwise they lose
that.

164
00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,080
The ability to share in the
upside.

165
00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:52,240
Lose the profit chair.
So if they bloody Perseus or if

166
00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,280
there's a taken out fast
December.

167
00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,480
Oh that'd be spiel.
Imagine if it's like January

168
00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,320
you'd be.
Like 2nd of January, yeah.

169
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,800
Oh.
Be frustrating, wouldn't it be?

170
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,960
Bloody demo.
But yeah, so, so looking at now

171
00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,480
the the register will flash up a
picture of the current register.

172
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,920
So you know, Percy use BlackRock
and a sort of a range of

173
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,080
institutions there.
So as part of this, you know,

174
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,640
new capitalising announced
today.

175
00:10:18,680 --> 00:10:21,040
So that'll dial all those guys
back a little bit.

176
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:25,240
So the Percy stake I think will
go to about 17.9%.

177
00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:27,760
BlackRock will kind of go down
to about 12%.

178
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:33,160
But then you're adding Lundinin
6 1/2 percent, adding Zijin 3

179
00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:34,120
1/2 percent.
God, this is.

180
00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,800
Bloody reputable register.
Jesus Christ.

181
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:38,440
Lot of big names there, that's
for sure.

182
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:42,160
So where Lundin and Zijin this
is?

183
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,560
This ain't their first rodeo
together, is it?

184
00:10:44,560 --> 00:10:47,200
No.
No, it's not the first African

185
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,920
gold developer.
We've seen both of those names

186
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:55,320
on the register for and the
other one is who we spoke about

187
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,800
before, which is Montage Gold
who have the the Kona Gold

188
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,880
project.
So I'll give a bit of background

189
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,800
on on Montage.
So Montage the Kona project.

190
00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:12,720
So they've got a resource space
of about 5.3 million oz at .6g a

191
00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,640
ton and around a 4 million oz
reserve at about .7g per ton.

192
00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:23,560
This open pit they put out ADFS
last year.

193
00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:29,240
So average production profile of
about 220,000 oz per annum over

194
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,160
16 years.
All and sustaining life of mine

195
00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,840
of around 1000 bucks US an
ounce.

196
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:42,000
US 1 1/2 billion post tax MPV 5
at US 2050 gold price again you

197
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,200
know obviously fair bit higher
now and and pre production

198
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:50,800
capital of US 712 million.
Look, it is obviously lower

199
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:56,120
grade compared to bank hand, but
kind of has quite a low

200
00:11:56,320 --> 00:12:01,000
stripping ratio of about roughly
1.2 to one versus bank hands

201
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,560
sort of mid force.
Yeah, right.

202
00:12:03,560 --> 00:12:07,920
So they've they've got enviro
approval already last year.

203
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,680
Yeah.
So they're almost like a a sort

204
00:12:10,680 --> 00:12:14,760
of similar trajectory to sort of
bank hand and and predictive.

205
00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,600
They're almost sort of like a
few steps ahead.

206
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:23,560
So talking through 2024, last
year Kodo got enviro approval in

207
00:12:23,560 --> 00:12:26,920
May, they got their mining
permit approval in July.

208
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:31,480
Shortly after that, they did a
strategic placement, Canadian

209
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:36,840
$170 million of which you know
included some participation from

210
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,480
Zijin.
They did a Canadian 57 million

211
00:12:41,680 --> 00:12:47,120
for a 9.9% stake in Montage, and
the London family, who were an

212
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:51,760
existing shareholder, topped up
Canadian 43 million to increase

213
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:55,120
their stake to 19.9%.
Yeah, right.

214
00:12:55,720 --> 00:13:00,280
And then sort of later that year
in October they announced AUS

215
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:05,120
825,000,000 funding package to
basically get Cone in

216
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:06,880
production.
There was a large chunk of that

217
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,960
was from Wheaton and and Zijin
sort of participated in that

218
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,240
funding package as well to a
smaller extent.

219
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,160
They actually commenced
construction in December just

220
00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,720
gone and they're expecting first
gold Q2 2027.

221
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,600
And I mean, you look at the the
Montage share price of the last

222
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,880
12 months, it's just been
absolutely killing it, you know,

223
00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:31,840
over over 200% in the last.
Yeah.

224
00:13:32,680 --> 00:13:36,680
But yeah, funnily enough,
Perseus actually had around a

225
00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:42,280
10% stake in Montage, which it
picked up by its acquisition of

226
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,000
Orca.
But it's sold that last year to

227
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,520
fund the acquisition of their
position in Predictive.

228
00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:54,040
So there's like all these like
random connections and stuff is

229
00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,600
quite, quite fascinating.
Yeah, right.

230
00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,480
So and so I guess what's this
mean for predictive?

231
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,760
Are we, is it who's who's going
to bloody take it over?

232
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,040
Who's going to operate it like,
what's it what's what's

233
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:09,280
happening here now?
Josie?

234
00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,400
Oh.
I mean the decision and the

235
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:15,800
hypothetical situation trays
just like massive, right.

236
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,960
But I mean, one thing is for
certain is that the competitive

237
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,640
landscape has has certainly
amped up.

238
00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,840
I think it's a good question.
You know who, who's you got all

239
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,360
these sort of strategic
shareholders now on the

240
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:33,720
register, but who's, who is
really going to develop banking?

241
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,360
Is it going to be predictive?
Is it going to be one or a

242
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,800
combination of the strategic
shareholders on the register or

243
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,080
is it perhaps someone where
we're yet to say, you know,

244
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,400
these strategic shareholders who
are on the register at the

245
00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,160
minute, they've got a pretty
strong financial backing and,

246
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,360
you know, operational experience
to to build and operate banking

247
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:53,360
predictive.
You know, they still got to

248
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:58,640
grapple with, you know, the US
450 million odd CapEx hurdle

249
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,080
based on the PFS, which I mean
is roughly equivalent to their

250
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,160
market cap at the minute.
But in saying that, you know,

251
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:11,280
montage had a similar conundrum
of that sort of market cap to

252
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,480
CapEx ratio.
And you know, they, they secured

253
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,880
their funding pretty much all
through gold streams and other

254
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,120
financing and some equity as
well.

255
00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:27,800
So certainly, certainly can be
done, but I think a good

256
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,080
question which you sort of
raised at the the top of the

257
00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:35,000
segment is from a Perseus
perspective, is predictive a

258
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,240
necessity for them or is it a
nice to have?

259
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,320
Yeah, and it's looking like that
is the case because it's like

260
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:49,000
unless Zejin and Lundin want
Perseus to be the operator of it

261
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,000
or they're taking stakes to now,
you know, pave the way for a

262
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:59,480
like a, a Xiao Jin or a Shindong
or buddy, you know, a Chinese

263
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,360
player to come in and take it
over fully.

264
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,080
That that's the key decision
there.

265
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,840
And if it looks like there's if
it's going to require bloody

266
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,320
competitive tension, I don't
think Percy is going to

267
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:11,800
consider.
And they got Nyanzaga.

268
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,880
They got the same a underground
at a or a lot.

269
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:18,160
I don't think they got enough on
their plate to not have to

270
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,000
bloody overpay for for this
asset.

271
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,920
They might just take their
whether it happens this year, if

272
00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,120
they can hold out a year and
take the full upside instead of

273
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:28,720
having to share.
Yeah, it works out great, right?

274
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,640
Other shareholders, that'd be
perfect for them and just take

275
00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,320
the upside of their bloody
initial 20% stake.

276
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,720
Yeah.
So I mean they are still the

277
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,640
biggest shareholder around, you
know 17.9% like you said,

278
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,640
they've got plenty going on in
their own backyard.

279
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:48,440
I don't think they're going to
be silly with this any, any M&A,

280
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:53,880
but you know, they could just,
if takeover offer came from

281
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,400
somewhere else and they didn't
want to compete against it, they

282
00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:01,360
could just make, make, make some
money on their investment.

283
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:06,720
But if they did want to go for
it, I think they'd have to get

284
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:13,240
both Lundin and Zijin on side
because the sum of those two

285
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,280
respective shareholdings
represents around 10%, which is

286
00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:19,240
effectively a neat blocking
site.

287
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:25,040
But then it's like would Lundin
or Zijin or both of them

288
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:30,000
actually, you know, go from a
minority interest to a full

289
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,880
blown, you know, takeover, M&A,
that sort of thing?

290
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:37,000
You know, they're in a sort of
similar situation with with

291
00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,040
Kanye or Montage at the minute.
They're both sort of, you know,

292
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,480
strategic shareholders, but they
haven't sort of taken the next

293
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:48,840
step on that one.
Does it mean that might do the

294
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,120
similar, similar here?
Not sure.

295
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,920
Who knows who bloody no.
So I think it's kind of, yeah,

296
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,320
that timing thing will be
interesting to see how quickly

297
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,920
the if the Chinese do ACT, if it
will be within this year and if

298
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,200
that changes, you know, the
strategy.

299
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:11,280
Because I think there's a bit of
simple maths behind Perseus as

300
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,120
play depending on if it's before
or after December.

301
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,480
Yeah.
And also, you know, there might

302
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,640
be, like you said, there might
be others waiting the winds who

303
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,120
have played in this space
before, like Xiao Jin and

304
00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:27,600
Shandong, you know.
But you know, we'll now that

305
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,760
that the landscape has gotten a
little more competitive, you

306
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:36,160
know, I don't know that if if
you were keen to sort of go for

307
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,520
it, I don't know that you'd
really want to be waiting that

308
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,400
long because it's a lot more
competitive now.

309
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:46,440
So you know, will they act
before predictive get their

310
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,720
mining permit or will they act
sooner or they just go, no, you

311
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,320
know what, we're happy just to
have exposure to this asset via

312
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,960
an investment.
Yeah, yeah, I'd love to see a

313
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,040
bit of a bloody Bang, Bang,
bang.

314
00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,120
Bang, oh, like the Cardinal deal
back in the day, that was just

315
00:19:00,120 --> 00:19:04,760
madness.
But in any event, predictive,

316
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,080
you know, they've got 98
million, you know, bucks of

317
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,680
cash, you know, so it's it's
important for, you know, a

318
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,360
prospective target to get to be
well funded during a, you know,

319
00:19:15,360 --> 00:19:17,120
potentially competitive M and a
period.

320
00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:22,600
So regardless of what may or may
not happen, that's that's pretty

321
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,800
important for them.
So getting that cash in the

322
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:26,240
door.
Gosh, it's a bloody bought

323
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,040
something today.
Ohh, it's.

324
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:28,920
Crazy.
I might.

325
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,160
Have a look see tomorrow so.
Yeah, battle.

326
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:35,720
Battle for bank can.
Battle for Band can and bloody

327
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,360
Ohh.
I'll tell you what is just as

328
00:19:37,360 --> 00:19:42,080
good as the Battle of Band can.
The also I'm in underground

329
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,760
operators conference that is
coming up 6th and 9th of April

330
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,640
in Adelaide.
Adelaide you'd say Australias

331
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,200
home of Uranium.
SA is this.

332
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,040
Like the perfect place.
For it's like the state of

333
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,800
uranium and heaps of people from
the underground mining world

334
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,120
like I cannot be in more heaven
and we have the exclusive 100

335
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:09,640
bucks off a ticket deal put in
the promo code MOM 100 and the

336
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,560
link is in the show notes get
you don't buy underground

337
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,880
operators tickets without our
promo code because 1 you save

338
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,880
money and two.
It's just cool.

339
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,320
It's just cool.
It's just cool.

340
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,400
Can't wait.
That is, it's like the best

341
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,240
conference in the world.
I love it.

342
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,560
It's like my underground
equivalent of Diggers and

343
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,760
dealers.
It's that's the mining 1, then

344
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,040
Diggers and Dealers.
That's the money.

345
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,240
One the money.
I love it, I thought if.

346
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,120
I could merge those two
conferences together.

347
00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:41,120
Whoa.
Speaking of bloody well, these

348
00:20:41,120 --> 00:20:43,240
these guys, they might merge
with Encounter.

349
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,160
No need too many tonnes, bloody
WA one.

350
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:51,120
What did they put out today?
Mate up 13 a bit percent GC

351
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,320
they're being a bit you be,
they're being tracking, just

352
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,240
being they're being in a
channel.

353
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,840
You'd say bloody.
Yeah, they kind of have been,

354
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,960
have they, when you look at
their share price?

355
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:05,000
Yeah, they, they, so they
announced they're completed

356
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,720
their first conversion test work
on refined niobium concentrate

357
00:21:10,120 --> 00:21:13,600
for Looney to produce a ferro
niobium product.

358
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,360
So they used to concentrate
produced from the 7th of October

359
00:21:17,360 --> 00:21:19,960
MET results that I'll bring up
here.

360
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,920
They've ran that through the
final pyrometallurgical stage,

361
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,040
not a bit like just in a bloody
in a met lab.

362
00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:32,320
And they've come back with a
ferro niobium product that has

363
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:36,480
65.7% niobium and 24 and a bit
percent on.

364
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,880
So recovery was 84% during this
pyromet stage with they which

365
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,560
they said exceeded their
expectations due to being such a

366
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:45,440
small scale.
Sure.

367
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,400
You like your current operations
like CBMM get around 95% for

368
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:56,280
this pyromet stage as an FYI,
but that's that's different to

369
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,800
the overall recovery.
So you can see you based on

370
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,720
existing operations in Brazil
and Canada, they said they get

371
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:08,400
between 30 and 70% overall
niobium recovery, which I'm

372
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,440
assuming includes the pyramid
stage.

373
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,320
I'm not sure about that actually
to say.

374
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,040
So the December test they did
for the concentrate, they got

375
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,840
58% recovery.
So, but they've got a bit to

376
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,800
play with because you know, the
loony deposits, she's pretty

377
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,800
high grade in sections,
especially like it's, it's the

378
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,960
second highest grade behind
CBMN.

379
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,840
That's the that's the erasure
deposit, the big dog, the

380
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,520
outline.
They're like 2 1/2 percent for

381
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:39,640
the whole thing.
So loonies is 1% total resource

382
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,840
for the 200 million tonnes.
But then they've got that high

383
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,960
grade subset, which is 2.1%.
That's about 1/4 of it.

384
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,640
So that's about the same.
Their total resource is the same

385
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,640
grade as C mock sits around
there, 1.01 C mock.

386
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,480
So, but it's just a shit load of
tonnes, 200 million tonnes of

387
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:57,560
them.
So it's probably.

388
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:02,360
Like the the grade that they,
the grades, the the results they

389
00:23:02,360 --> 00:23:05,920
put out to do that today, Is
that pretty in line with what

390
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,680
existing assets are producing at
the minute?

391
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,040
Yeah.
Well, according to the note

392
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,960
here, that's sort of 65% is what
for a Pharaoh niobium product,

393
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,560
which is essentially the most
the saleable product, the only

394
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:24,440
9590% of the world's niobium is
purchased as Pharaoh Niobium.

395
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,760
So that they're all looking
good.

396
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,840
That was sort of the the key
thing to show that they can

397
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,520
their, their deposit can create
this Ferra niobium that they can

398
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,560
sell.
So it's all looking good there.

399
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:40,360
But it just highlights where the
projects at which part of the

400
00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:42,560
journey it's on.
It's they've they've shown

401
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:48,320
they've can the met works in the
lab and hence the share price.

402
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,240
Getting a bit of action today
though down a bit from the WA1

403
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,200
Mania of 22 bucks 50.
When?

404
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,280
Yeah, well.
It was like freaking going off.

405
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,040
Then she's quieting down a bit,
but it's like, 'cause even if

406
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,920
they grew the resource, like
it's not really gonna friggin

407
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,720
have much material impact.
They've already got decades of

408
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:06,600
mine life.
Yeah.

409
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,120
And when you're adding to mine
life, you know, that sort of

410
00:24:09,120 --> 00:24:13,920
that far back into the more and
more, you know, decades and

411
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,440
decades, it's sort of, yeah.
And it's good, but it's not like

412
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,800
enough to crazily move the dial
I guess.

413
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,160
Yeah, well, I think it's just
gonna be the the path from here.

414
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,320
It's like it's gonna be a lot of
testing.

415
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,240
The studies begin like it's a
big bloody scale project to try

416
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,080
and create in the middle of
absolute nowhere.

417
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,040
But it's are they gonna just
really go hammer and ton to

418
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,960
commit to study and build
themselves?

419
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,200
Are they going to be?
I would assume they'll be very

420
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,160
actively looking for.
Are they going to maybe sell

421
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,440
down a portion of the project
to?

422
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,640
A major.
Yeah, like to get a bit of

423
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,640
bloody bit of cash in the door.
Like, are they hoping someone

424
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,960
just takes the whole thing out?
Like because it definitely

425
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,680
belongs in the world class
project.

426
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,960
Like if you've got the second
best of something in the world,

427
00:24:59,960 --> 00:25:04,600
it belongs in the hands of a,
you know, DHP or a GM.

428
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,440
Or a.
Twiggy or a Raya or a bloody

429
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,400
God, anyone they name a big
company bloody Glencore, any any

430
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,040
of them or CBM.
And and but it's an interesting

431
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,120
dynamic because CBMM controls so
much of the market.

432
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:23,040
How they're like the niobium
mafia, how you know, you hear OK

433
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:27,280
rumours around it's like that.
They you know, they welcome more

434
00:25:27,360 --> 00:25:30,200
welcome another player in the
other side of the world.

435
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,000
Like I'm not not sure how it all
works.

436
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,640
Very, very gonna be very
interesting.

437
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,200
I, I, I reckon the guys that
founded it that have been there

438
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,760
right from the start.
A lot of the directors and that

439
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,040
that are sitting on bloody, oh,
sixty day.

440
00:25:42,120 --> 00:25:43,600
It'd be a fair bit.
Now strip.

441
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,560
At the moment, probably well
over 100 million each if they

442
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,840
might.
I want a bloody big dog to take

443
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,440
him out.
So the boys get a payday.

444
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,520
They've been there from the
start, busting their ass out in

445
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,880
the Western run to like do the
right thing for Australia, give

446
00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:59,960
the boys some cash, take them
over.

447
00:26:00,360 --> 00:26:04,760
It's just like they bloody just
a great Australian story, go

448
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,920
sailing in the bloody Maldives
or something.

449
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,880
And since I'm such a proponent
for the takeover, take me with

450
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,400
his.
Yeah, I love it go boys, but no,

451
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:14,240
it is.
Yeah.

452
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,480
It's a it's a good point.
You raise, you know, a lot and

453
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:21,240
it's sort of a bit of a the
situation to you know what we're

454
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,360
talking about earlier with with
predictive, right?

455
00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:26,600
You know, like how, how far
along in the development cycle

456
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,600
do you think they'll have to
progress to when you know, a

457
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,040
potential corporate action might
occur?

458
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,600
You know, what is what is a
corporate sort of want to you

459
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,240
know, or even like a partner,
for example, if they were going

460
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,320
to do it together with someone,
you know what, what do they want

461
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:44,720
to say?
What do they want to say

462
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,120
achieved by a certain point
before they sort of, you know,

463
00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:52,520
commit to, you know, looking at
it, you know, very seriously and

464
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,960
that or, you know, it's you
know, what, what, what is going

465
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,880
to be the real catalyst to go
OK, no, we, we, we need to make

466
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,840
a move on this.
No, it's I bet it.

467
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,840
God, look at things like to
grey.

468
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,560
Look at how long de grey was to
grey for like that eventually

469
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,040
got taken over a lot.
Predictive predictive's been

470
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,800
around for friggin ages.
Their their permitting's been a

471
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:21,200
big catalyst there.
Yeah, but this one, yeah,

472
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,240
there's obviously it's still
very, very early days in testing

473
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,960
and like no studies or like
there's a there's a lot of work

474
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,080
to do here.
So this could these guys could

475
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,400
be around for frigging another
three or four years before

476
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,240
someone looks into a move.
Yeah, no, that's right.

477
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:43,080
Yeah, unless someone really what
thinks paying what?

478
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,640
Their market caps a billion
today.

479
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:49,400
So unless someone thinks oh
play, we'll pay 1.31.4 and we'll

480
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:50,920
take it.
Now they might, but they

481
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,280
mightn't accept that.
They might.

482
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,280
They might hold out.
Like, you know, some people are

483
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:56,840
crazier than me and love
working.

484
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:58,960
Yeah.
And the other thing I mean,

485
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,200
which we sort of spoke about
earlier today is, you know, this

486
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:10,440
is this is not like a, a simple
gold mine in Kalgoorlie, you

487
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,920
know, study and you know, sort
of development works and things

488
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,440
like that.
You know, this is of, of huge

489
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,480
scale in a very remote location
in a very niche commodity.

490
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:25,120
You know, it is not the, it's
not the regular study, you know,

491
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,120
you, you see every day and
there's a lot of, you know, work

492
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,160
involved that'll be involved in
putting that together and all

493
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,200
the other work streams around
that.

494
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,600
So it's not.
I wouldn't say it's easy peasy.

495
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,480
I'll be bringing a lot of
Brazilians over here to work on

496
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:43,000
it.
Oh.

497
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:44,240
Straight.
Be like right?

498
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,880
You have done this before.
You're coming with.

499
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:51,440
Us come help us stop bringing.
The the Kazaks over to do a ISL

500
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,000
uranium project.
Yeah, that's like that's where's

501
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,920
the expertise.
So yes, we'll wait and see.

502
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,520
Wait and see.
Right around the ground.

503
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:00,800
It's the greatest part of the
day.

504
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,240
Others, you're new.
Talking about sponsors.

505
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,320
New new favorite segment.
Right, so the bloody after hour

506
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,040
friggin great US macroeconomic
analysis, if I may.

507
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,840
So many.
Self GC yesterday, the bloody

508
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,080
big Trump's he's spark's bigger
than his bot.

509
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,480
Maybe he's the tariffs for both
Mexico and Canada are paused at

510
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,880
the moment for a month.
Yeah, they are doing a bit of

511
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,680
bloody Wheeling and dealing or
yeah, maybe, maybe.

512
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,320
He says if you get the get the
immigration and the fentanyl

513
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,320
under control, it won't put the
tariffs on you.

514
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:38,520
Yeah, it's, it's just amazing,
like how these geopolitical

515
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,520
events assess not even like
month to month or week to week,

516
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,280
but literally daily.
There's just these, you know,

517
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,880
big shifts and changes and
decisions and the tariffs are

518
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,640
happening now.
They pause now.

519
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,920
It's just, it is just amazing to
watch, isn't it?

520
00:29:55,080 --> 00:30:00,480
So, yeah, it will be interesting
to see what, you know, Mexico

521
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,360
and and Canada, you know, sort
of how they work in with the the

522
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,520
US and whether Trump gets what
he's after and whether those

523
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:12,040
tariffs ultimately will go ahead
or or not or perhaps in a in a

524
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,760
different form.
I'm not going to hold, hold my

525
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,240
breath.
It just seems to be the

526
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,240
landscape just seems to be
shifting daily.

527
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,600
Just.
Madness it is.

528
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,760
It is very much so so we will
wait and see.

529
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:27,280
But it's like, jeez, you'd like
to be a freak.

530
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,240
Well, I know because I'm a hedge
fund Well, you'd like to be a

531
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:31,920
hedge fund.
It's tough to pick the bloody

532
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,200
direction of the market each
day.

533
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,000
Oh, that's.
For sure, far out.

534
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,880
And then I saw Regis.
I mean, they sort of flagged,

535
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,920
they're arranging getting this
arranged, but they sort of

536
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,960
locked in that $300 million debt
facilities, you know, for the

537
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,360
usual, you know, lot, you know,
flexibility, liquidity,

538
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,000
additional liquidity, blah,
blah, blah, sort of raising.

539
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,400
So yeah, no, it's, it's look,
they're not like as we've

540
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,160
mentioned the other way, you
know, they're not the, the 1st

541
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,480
to have sort of cleared the
decks on their debt, but then

542
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,440
sort of secure a new facility,
you know, keep it undrawn, but

543
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:11,160
just have their what purpose and
when they may use it, we're yet

544
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,000
to see well.
I'll see like the only time

545
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,080
you're using, if you're a gold
miner, you're using a debt

546
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,480
facility at the moment is if
you're bloody losing money.

547
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,120
Like like, you know, West Gold
drew down on theirs because they

548
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,160
had a shit ass quarter last
quarter and then buddy, oh Ding,

549
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,760
Ding, Ding for West Gold now
rolled a bit of cash over in the

550
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,720
hedge fund.
Yeah, for a bloody talk about

551
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,000
them too much or like you know,
or a bloody Northern Star

552
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,880
building, a huge frigging thing,
but not many, yeah, not many

553
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,960
gold miners seem to be drawing
on debt at the moment.

554
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,120
They have these a lot of them
have these facilities, but they

555
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,000
don't get bloody used unless
they're.

556
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:50,560
And you I'll be interested to
know what their thoughts on M&A

557
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,960
at these high price like because
gold is ripping and gold is at

558
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,960
all time highs by a shit load
and it is top of the cycle.

559
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,720
So to be buying doing gold M and
I at the moment, especially with

560
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,600
cash, is frigging it's it's a
it's a.

561
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,280
Big balance.
It's pro.

562
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:11,760
Cyclical.
Yeah.

563
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,080
And I mean, it's it's, you know,
and a lot of these gold miners

564
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,360
are making a lot of money,
which, you know, that's

565
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,840
fantastic.
But it's like, OK, where am I

566
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,480
putting that money that's going
to, you know, give me the the

567
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,280
best return possible?
Is it, you know, putting it into

568
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,760
in my existing projects and
making them bigger and better?

569
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,280
Is it buying something
opportunistically that's perhaps

570
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,120
nearby me?
Is it giving some back to to

571
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,320
shareholders?
Because that's the thing we

572
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:45,600
often say at these.
I don't know if we keep feeling

573
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,080
like we're at the top of the
gold prize cycle, but then it

574
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:52,560
just sort of keeps going.
You know, you see these deals

575
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,920
get done at ridiculous gold
prices and then you know, when

576
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,320
it does revert and it's just
like, oh, gosh, but like, oh,

577
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,000
I'm a bit short here.
I should have invested more in

578
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,560
my other asset here.
And this.

579
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,280
So it's it's a bit of a bit of a
balancing act, that's for sure.

580
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:13,400
I think yes, because I don't
know.

581
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,840
I don't know what the next deal
is going to be.

582
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:21,960
I think, like, you know, after
reading the Spartan and oh geez,

583
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,280
bloody another Ding, Ding, Ding,
I'm becoming you and the guy

584
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,800
after reading Spartans
announcement, like like just

585
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,880
talking about like the drill,
the expiration money that the

586
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,160
made is they're going to be
drilling and a lot some of that

587
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,000
will be infill, but a lot of
it's going to be proven up freak

588
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,760
And a lot of the other deposits
like they're sitting at 2.8

589
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:46,640
million oz now, like they they
just mightn't be in a rush to

590
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,840
mine because they're like we can
just we've got a shit load of

591
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,000
cash.
We can do a bit of pre

592
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:56,040
production and construction and
keep moving forward in that.

593
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,880
But they could, you know, they
could turn that Cape drilling

594
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,560
the shit out of this joint and
go from go to 4 million oz, for

595
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,200
instance.
And that and considering what

596
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:10,719
the Gray sold for the 10 million
ounces of refractory at 1.2g, If

597
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:15,360
they can, you know, get a bit
under half of that at high, like

598
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,840
a high grade underground could
be some that's really amenable

599
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,320
to a bigger player.
And like them, like maybe, maybe

600
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,719
Remelius isn't the taker of it.
Like they've got the stake, but

601
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:33,920
they're not going to Remelius
are a patient, a patient beast.

602
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,639
They will and they're not going
to pay a stupid price,

603
00:34:36,639 --> 00:34:40,480
especially if they keep growing
the resource and it becomes even

604
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,600
just a ridiculous valuation.
Yeah, I guess from a Spartan

605
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,719
perspective that's, you know,
it's another balancing act.

606
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:53,800
You know, do I, do I wrap some
economics around this or do I

607
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:59,080
just keep going hammer and Tong
and at at growing it, you know,

608
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,880
because it obviously it has
changed a fair bit over the last

609
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,200
couple of years, right.
So it's like, oh jeez, by the

610
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,800
time you wrap something around
it, you know, it's sort of

611
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,680
changed quite quickly and it's
already very quickly out of

612
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,600
date, those economics so.
Especially if you're finding

613
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:18,280
parallel ore bodies like and
you're not just extending deeper

614
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,200
and defining if they've find it
like you adding freak on or

615
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,040
whatever the else they start
adding on.

616
00:35:24,720 --> 00:35:29,000
It changes your tonnage profile
like it changes what you design

617
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,880
the plant to like.
It changes.

618
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:35,680
It changes everything.
You might go from 120,000 ounces

619
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:40,200
to a 200,000 oz producer like
based on the fact that you could

620
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:45,080
get a lot more at once.
Like it's, that's why I don't

621
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,400
think, I think it's not
coincidence that we're not

622
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,360
seeing and rapidly advance
towards a mining decision.

623
00:35:52,720 --> 00:35:57,400
So you know, whether Remilius
are the holder of that, I don't

624
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:58,600
know anymore.
I don't think so.

625
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,160
I think it's going to be maybe a
bigger company that might take

626
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,000
them like think of what happened
the end of last year, like

627
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:11,760
Remilius West Gold discussions,
like through Murchison's

628
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:16,680
synergies like that.
That could, and considering how

629
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,360
much West Gold's just been
hammered after the, the

630
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,880
quarterly, then the downgrade,
like sitting at 2 bucks 30 like

631
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,120
they were, you know, 3 bucks 20
before.

632
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,320
Like, I know they're a lot
bigger now with Carolla, but

633
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,920
just on a share pricing like,
you know, maybe Remilius will be

634
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,760
Oh, they're under a bit under a
bit of pressure.

635
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,440
Maybe a like that makes more
sense.

636
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:43,600
So I'll just you got to think
left field JC or like it's just

637
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,920
what always going to keep your.
Options open.

638
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:48,600
That's it.
You never know.

639
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:53,560
And I think in this this sort of
gold price environment or assets

640
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,960
that are sort of, you know, sort
of growing or developing and

641
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,880
changing quite quickly and
things like that.

642
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:04,440
And even, you know, what we
talked about earlier today, just

643
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:09,800
because, you know, you know,
Perseus had a 19.9% stake in

644
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,680
predictive doesn't mean, oh,
it's all sort of, you know,

645
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,960
probably not everything.
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, they'll

646
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,240
probably end up with a blah,
blah, blah.

647
00:37:16,240 --> 00:37:19,760
But then along come, you know,
Lundin and and Zijin.

648
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,120
So it's not to say the same
can't happen in in other, you

649
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,320
know, scenarios too.
So no, it's a It'll just be

650
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,720
fascinating.
A lot of coincidental like

651
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,400
events have occurred like like,
you know, big they aren't doing

652
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,200
the big bell expansion anymore,
like the big bell deeps or

653
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,000
whatever, like that seems to
have just been pushed to the

654
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,800
side.
So and you know, I like Paddy's

655
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:43,960
flat was turned off.
I don't know how much they're

656
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:45,840
drilling a lot.
You'd think, God, you'd think

657
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,600
people would want to buy that
asset and troll it out

658
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,560
themselves if Westcold aren't
going to mine it.

659
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:55,920
But if they're not pushing to
have big bell expanded to keep

660
00:37:56,360 --> 00:38:03,040
that mill full at Tucker Bianna,
is that because the eventual

661
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:07,520
plan might be to send it down to
checkers like and turn Tucker

662
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,880
Bianna off?
I'm not I'm and just expand

663
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,760
checkers and make that a bigger
meal, like as wonder if that is

664
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,680
all part of the bigger plan.
I don't know.

665
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,320
I've got my eye on it.
JC.

666
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,800
We shall say.
Bloody skin in the game.

667
00:38:22,240 --> 00:38:26,000
And then the last sort of
probably more interesting 1

668
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,000
today.
So the 40 skis sort of rapidly

669
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:33,200
progressing their, their
takeover or of of RedHawks, I

670
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:38,160
think they reached about 66%
relevant interest of that today.

671
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,920
So I think looks like that'll
get wrapped up pretty quickly.

672
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,160
Yeah, very good, JC.
Good.

673
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,200
Session just.
As good as underground operators

674
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,880
conference.
Get your free not your free

675
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,080
tickets.
Get 100 bucks off your ticket.

676
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,760
But considering the experience
you have there, it's like

677
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:58,520
effectively free like I see it
as links in the show notes.

678
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,120
Code MOM 100 to get 100 bucks
off.

679
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,800
And thank you to all our bloody
great best friend partners.

680
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:10,280
Good day Gabshaw Mining
Services, Grounded Samba Ground

681
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:14,160
Sports, our insurance, K drill,
Subwoosh contracting, SWEC,

682
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,440
Wattro, Project Engineering,
Cross Boundary Energy and Just

683
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,640
Ally GC in general.
Oodaroo money miners.

684
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:24,480
Thank you, Joe, Sir.
Thank you.

685
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,200
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

686
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,280
general nature only and does not
take into account the

687
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,880
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

688
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:35,920
person.
Before making any investment

689
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,960
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

690
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,120
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

691
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,320
financial situation and needs.