A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder

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Rhino money miners another week
and Big M and a possibility

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we're in that end of town.
Hopefully not another bloody BHP

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angle I think because that just
eventuated to nothing.

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But it might not be.
Hold on dear seats.

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And jeez, we've got a who?
Who?

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We've got a guest coming on to
divulge a bit more about this

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potential Rio Arcadium merger
who is obviously saying need to

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get that bloody get that price
up dogs.

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We do.
This is exciting, mate.

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We try, yeah.
We, we always try and wedge

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ourselves into deals in some
way, shape or form.

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And this time we've managed to
get the shareholder who's making

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the most noise at the moment to
come on the potty and dial in.

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Easy to contact when they're
making heaps of noise.

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It's great.
Cool.

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Yeah, yeah.
Start bloody bit girl.

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Or better.
Better AR, better the The

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Takeovers panel Backflip ERA
WAFF has plummeted today on the

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back of some, you know you'd say
scepticism around Burkina Faso

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nationalising.
But is this another by the coup

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moment by the dip?
Who knows?

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That's a big question, isn't?
It Oh mate you a big question JD

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Does mineral mining services
still have gear available for a

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contract?
The answer is yes.

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Yes they do.
Yes, same as last week, same as

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this week.
They're still ready and rocking

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to go for an open pit mining
contract.

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Mate.
They can do JVS.

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They can just RIP, tear, bust
and get it all out as quick as

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possible.
Give you cash flow.

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Give them a call.
If your rocks can make money

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they'll they can do it for you
ASAP.

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And that's another website
header I think.

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Trap.
Well done mate, I like it.

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Right now.
Let's RIP in so the coming out

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on the weekend, not Friday.
The article about the Rio

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Arcadium.
It was Ghost Friday because in

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after market trade Arcadium
teared up 30 plus percent, so

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it.
Started super exciting, right?

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This is the beginning of town
for those who don't know Mario

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Chinto's confirmed that they
have submitted an on mining bid

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for Arcadia and like these
rumours around the rumours

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around the potential deal.
I think they could be traced to

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the back end of last week was
actually was actually a

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favourite column that penned a
column penned an article on

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Thursday data room saying that
Rio was eyeing off a big deal.

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Then she named both Arcadium and
Albemarle in that one.

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I mean, there's been some
rumours before that, but let's

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just, let's just.
Good to say hit a one. 80 We'll

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give her credit on on Saturday,
though, it was Reuters who had

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the scoop that Rio taught us
that Rio Tinto was in talks

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specifically with Arcadium in a,
in a deal which was suggested to

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be worth between US four and $6
billion.

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And then this morning's ASX
release, Rio Tinto, they, they

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confirmed, I said we're, we're,
we're in talks with Arcadium.

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And and that's where it gets
pretty interesting because

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they've confirmed it right then
to throw another spanner into

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the mix, one of Arcadium
shareholders, a, a Sydney based

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kind of fund called Black
Waddle.

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They've promptly penned this
letter to the board of Arcadium,

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which is, is chaired by Peter
Coleman, suggesting that the,

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you know, a deal in the vicinity
of that, you know, US 4 to $6

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billion would be, would severely
undervalue the business.

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And of course is much lower than
than where share price was

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itself earlier this year too.
So must have just been an

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absolute whirlwind of a, a
weekend for the, you know, for

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the deal teams at Rio, at
Arcadium, the the respective

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advisors and the the chairs,
etcetera.

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But there's a lot of talking
points to cover in relation to

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this news guys.
We're going to go through why

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Arcadium and not Albemarle or,
or Pilbara or any development

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project out there.
Why now?

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What are Rio's plans here?
What's the likelihood of a deal

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actually going ahead?
And and what about the Arcadium

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shareholders that will be
frustrated by any offer that

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doesn't get the share price back
to where it was recently?

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Well, that point if we're going
to have certain person dial in

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very soon.
It's obviously on one side of

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the fence, probably probably a
refresh for for people who don't

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know arcadium and you wouldn't
bloody blame them because it's

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the the bloody movements that's
created it.

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That was it was aura cobre
Galaxy made all chem all chem

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merge with live it.
Now you've got Arcadium, now

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potentially Rio Tinto.
Isn't it funny how both of those

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mergers that they did, they
renamed the company to neither

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of the like merging entity
server?

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Like Oracle bread Galaxy became
all chem and all chem live and

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became OK.
Why keep renaming?

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It's just so confusing.
Merger vehicles.

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Merger of vehicles, no name is
better than the other.

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Yeah, right, JD, Give us the
bloody, give us the view, give

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us the share price asset, all
that shit.

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Bloody overview.
Who is Arcady?

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The thing that jumps out
obviously is the share price

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reaction today up I think last
time like 47% just absolutely

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flying.
You can see on the the spark

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chart there which.
That.

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That's pretty wild right that
that is, you know a pretty

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violent move to the to the kind
of upside there.

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So that leaves the company kept
at US 3.3 billion.

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So quick reminder, like you said
on the back of all those deals

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US is now their their call
listing, but they've got ACDI

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here in Australia on the ASX 10
operating sites up and

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downstream.
Again, like you said, Maddie,

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these guys are real mishmash of
everything lithium related.

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So in 2024 terms, their upstream
capacity, what they produce from

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their brines, Oleros and Fenix,
both in Argentina is sort of

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circa 75,000 tonnes of lithium
carbonate equivalent.

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Now they've got all these growth
assets that they talk about and

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you'll remember on the Investor
Day they sort of trimmed back

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the spending to kind of tighten
the belt a bit and give the

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investors confidence that they
wouldn't be running short of

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cash, are still reaching their,
you know, stated sort of 2828

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goals.
So they've got downstream

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opportunities in Argentina and
then they've got Galaxy and

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Namaskar Lithium, both in
Canada.

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They are Hard Rock growth assets
that at varying stages.

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One of them, Namaskar, they're
looking to turn the spot into

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hydroxide as well.
Of course they've got Mount

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Catlin, which has been recently
mothballed here in WA.

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Not.
Yet 25.

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To be down to be mothballed yet
and then yeah in terms of

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downstream they talk about
producing hydroxide chloride,

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butyl lithium, high purity metal
in that investigate they they

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sort of really pride themselves
on not being pinned on just the

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EV sector.
So they talk about producing to

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the, the farmer space, the
ceramics and glass making

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sectors and all these other
things.

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And that sort of comes at the
history of, of live and, and

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everything that they had done
over the sort of previous 50 odd

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years that they'd been in
production.

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And they also speak a lot about
building the sort of flexibility

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of kind of toggling between
carbonate and hydroxide

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depending on what gets them
better value.

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So they're definitely building
in capacity to produce both of

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them.
They've got downstream in China,

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Japan, the USA.
Yeah, that, that recent strategy

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day was like super interesting.
I remember, you know, 1 slide

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that did the rounds there was,
you know, they, they, they talk

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about and, and expect their Max
kind of leverage to, to reach

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sort of 2.1 times that's EBITDA.
And then they, they actually,

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they actually point like they
illustrate what their projected

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EBITDA will be assuming a, a
$1400 per per tonne sort of spot

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price in 2028.
And that that very number

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actually became subject to, you
know, the multiples that we saw

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kind of talked about on Twitter
and also in in the letter penned

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by Black Waddle, because, you
know, that gives them gives

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their share out a lot of
creators to argue that a bit in

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the vicinity of four to $6
billion would undervalue the

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company.
If it's the lower end of that

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bound, then what you talk you're
talking around like three times

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that that that that 2028
projected EBITDA on those

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consensus numbers.
Yeah.

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For those that hadn't caught the
number 1.3 billion EBITDA was

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the one that was, you know,
commonly quoted.

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Yeah.
And would be better to to talk

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about that letter then like
we've got, we've got Michael

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Doran from who's a portfolio
manager at Blackwater dialling

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into the show.
So pretty keen.

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I mean, in Full disclosure,
Black Waddle, they they're

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obviously long Arcadium.
In the letter they disclosed

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that they bought their stake
shortly after the merger

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completed, which that merger
completed January 4th of this

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year.
Since then the share price is

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still down about 40% even after
today's 45% price spike.

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Oh really?
Yeah.

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Oh, he's snapping dark shit.
Yeah, yeah, right.

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Mike.
Come on, Mike, let's do it.

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Thanks man.
OK, so having me on.

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This is this is so awesome.
We're we're privileged that

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you're, you're making noise
about a deal and you agree to

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come on the podcast to, to get
loud.

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This is the best place to get
loud.

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You know, when you're unhappy
about terms and who better, who

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better to be unhappy about than
Rio Tinto in your view with a a

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low ball offer for Arcadium.
What what was your like?

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How were you feeling when you
were reading the the leak from

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from Reuters over the weekend
that there's AUS 4 to $6 billion

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deal that's on the table?
Yeah.

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So, I mean, look, Rio's been
talked about as a potential

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acquirer for Acadia for a little
while.

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You know, the, the combination
of the assets, you know, really

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makes sense for Rio.
But I mean, the timing for them,

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good, good, good on for Rio.
But yeah, for Arcadium

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shareholder, this is a very
opportunistic time for Rio to to

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get the assets.
And when, you know, when we saw

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that 4 to $6 billion number
being floated by Reuters, you

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know, we thought that really
undervalued the the assets.

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And that's you know why we
decided we'd, you know, just

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provide some feedback to the the
board of management at Arcadia.

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But what we think you know as
long term investors, what we

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think about the value of of the
assets there.

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So, so Mike, as you laid out in
in the letter, for those that

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haven't sort of seen it, you
started accumulating shares

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shortly after the merger earlier
this year and you've, you know,

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been been buying a little bit.
Why don't you sort of like lay

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out the picture of the the value
you kind of see and the sort of

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horizon you had on your
investment when you sort of

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bought into the company and
these sorts of things?

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Yeah.
So I mean our investment style

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Blackwater was that we're really
focused on quality.

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So you know we're looking to
sort of build a portfolio of the

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the highest quality businesses
in every industry across the

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ASX.
And you know, we're sort of

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looking through the lithium
space.

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You know, we, we sort of doubled
in Nigel and Pilbara and then we

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sort of start looking a little
bit more at Arcadium, which is,

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you know, a combination of two
businesses.

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So it was the US listing live in
and then the Australian listing,

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OK.
And they'd only combined in

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December last year.
And you sort of look at those

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assets and we think they're
quite unique within the

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industry.
So this is a, a vertically

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integrated business.
So unlike, you know, an IGO or a

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or a Kilbra, which is, you know,
sends this forge main straight

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to China to get processed, but
it's a vertically integrated

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business that's has an ex China
supply chain.

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So there's no really there's not
really any other business in the

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world like it.
You know, Albemarle has, you

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know, large Chinese processing.
And so we thought this is a very

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unique asset and the market's
not properly evaluating it.

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That vertical integration allows
it to to have these long term

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contracts with the likes of Ford
and Tesla and that gives them,

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you know, floor pricing and
protection in their long term

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contracts and so allows them to
give have a profitability

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00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,960
through the cycle.
And then they have this huge

227
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,000
growth pipeline.
So they're expanding in

228
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,520
Argentina, they're growing in
Canada and you know, they could,

229
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,520
they're doubling, looks like
they're doubling production into

230
00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,400
2028 and then they have another
opportunity to double production

231
00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,320
beyond that.
So you know, it's a huge

232
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,920
resource base.
And so we put all that together

233
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,600
and thought, you know, the
valuation in a few years time,

234
00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,040
you've got to be a longer term
investor, you know, go for

235
00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,600
lithium cycles is pretty tough.
But you know, if you sort of

236
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,280
step back and think about what a
business looks like in a few

237
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,160
years time, it was, you know,
incredibly undervalued asset.

238
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,360
The number you kind of pointed
to, you sort of didn't even have

239
00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,840
to back out your own kind of
potential value that the

240
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,400
business could could be worth
because they did the work for

241
00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:19,520
you in the strategy day slide by
by pointing to, you know, FY20

242
00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,600
8, you know, potential EBITDA
under their kind of growth

243
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:27,240
plans.
You're arguing for, you know, a

244
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:31,200
total kind of evaluation of
Arcadium that starts at $8

245
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,240
billion and and is is north of
that.

246
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,560
That's a fairway from the $3.3
billion evaluation.

247
00:12:35,560 --> 00:12:38,600
It is right right now.
But your math is basically

248
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:44,880
saying that that's that's like 9
times kind of the EV EBITDA that

249
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,640
you're you're projecting out in
in FY20 8.

250
00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,600
Is, is a if you know, is that
how do you come to that, that

251
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,880
kind of that, that, that
arithmetic?

252
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,480
Yeah.
Yeah, just just on those

253
00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,200
numbers.
So you know, if you sort of look

254
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,840
at like companies like Albemarle
through the cycle, they trade

255
00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,920
about 9:00 to 11:00 times sort
of a chemical business, you

256
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,280
know, huge demand lithium, you
know, they sort of trade

257
00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,840
slightly higher multiples than
an iron ore miner, which is

258
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:10,240
maybe six or seven times even
done.

259
00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:15,520
And So what we thought was OK,
you know, arcadium's talked to

260
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,840
this this number only three
weeks ago, they have some

261
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,800
confidence in this number.
If you put that on that multiple

262
00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,520
and then you discount it back.
So 10% per annum discount back.

263
00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,640
So you MPV it back and you
should get towards a, you know,

264
00:13:27,680 --> 00:13:31,080
a $8 billion number.
And so if the management really,

265
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,560
you know, believe in what they,
you know, they can execute and

266
00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:37,080
deliver those projections, then,
you know, we think that, you

267
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,440
know, the value value that, you
know, talk to Rio has to be in

268
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,400
that sort of ballpark of a
discounted valuation back from

269
00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,680
the, you know, that that target.
Mike, like you, you lay it out

270
00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:49,680
in the in the note.
Yeah, LTM has just been

271
00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:53,960
completely smashed this year in
in a sector of companies that

272
00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,240
have been really, really sort of
beaten up.

273
00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,120
And I think the the question a
lot of people had is that what,

274
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,760
why have they been whacked so
hard?

275
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,720
You know, given as as people
like to say they do have, you

276
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,160
know, relatively top tier, lower
quartile, all these sorts of

277
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,160
things, projects.
What?

278
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,000
Why do you have they've been hit
so hard by the downturn?

279
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:13,880
Yeah, I mean, it's it's a couple
of things.

280
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:15,560
I mean, we've been thinking
about that as well as we've sort

281
00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:17,560
of been, you know, watching it
go all the way down.

282
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:23,520
Look, I think the US market in
particular seems to be very

283
00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:24,960
focused and worried about their
balance sheet.

284
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,280
And so, you know, they've got
this big growth pipeline.

285
00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,640
They're spending a lot of CapEx.
And I think part of the, the

286
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,400
Investor Day only a few weeks
ago was to sort of, you know,

287
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,560
calm everyone's fears and say,
look, you know, we can actually

288
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,840
face this CapEx spread it over
many years and, you know,

289
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,760
provide a lot of yeah, headroom
for about balance sheet.

290
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:44,840
So I think that was one of the
reasons it got sold off.

291
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,560
I think in, in Australia, the
stock's a bit of an orphan

292
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,840
stock.
You know, it's, it's unlike the

293
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,360
other, the other lithium
players, which are sort of Hard

294
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,880
Rock miners, which, you know, as
you know, mining investors in,

295
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,320
in Oz, it's easier to get our
heads around while this one's

296
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,800
vertically integrated.
And I feel like, you know,

297
00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,360
people haven't done the work to
really understand what that

298
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,000
actually means.
And so I think those two things

299
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:09,920
have sort of put the pressure on
the share price.

300
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,000
Does it being a ACDI as well,
does that sort of play into it?

301
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,320
People think, you know what, why
play it on the the secondary

302
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,240
kind of listing?
Is that a big factor at all?

303
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,440
Yeah.
It's, it's, it's funny that like

304
00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:23,280
the, when it first listed, I
think about 55% of the

305
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:28,720
shareholders were ASX listed and
then 45 in the US, But that sort

306
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,840
of that flow is just moved
towards the US and I think it's

307
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,360
been over 60% now in the US.
And so that just makes it that

308
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,680
much harder.
And you know, if you look at

309
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,960
like the, the stock indexes in,
in ASX, you know, Arcane has

310
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,480
fallen out of there ASX 100 now
into a small cap only a couple

311
00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,280
of weeks ago as well.
So it doesn't help.

312
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,600
Do do you think this was always
the end game for Arcadium that

313
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:55,440
Rayo would take him out?
Yeah, feels like that that'll

314
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,880
help them all.
You know, the the big assets

315
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,760
that will require capital, you
know, patience and and long term

316
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,280
thinking.
And you know, I think the

317
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:07,600
shareholder base is showing that
that's not really what they're

318
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,000
looking for, right.
And so, you know, it makes sense

319
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,360
that a larger a larger player
takes them.

320
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,600
And how amenable do you think
Real are going to be for price

321
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,480
negotiation or do you think it's
more opportunistic and it's

322
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,880
going to be like a BHP Anglo
situation?

323
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:23,840
Yeah.
I mean, I think this is still

324
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,000
strategic for them.
You think about like the the

325
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,320
other options they have, you
know, they've got issues in in

326
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:34,400
Serbia, they've got a small
asset in Argentina is they seem

327
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,440
to really like Brian.
There aren't really many other.

328
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,240
I don't think there's a second
prize if you know, if they don't

329
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,680
take Arcadian, Albemarle doesn't
fit the bill.

330
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,440
It's got, you know, China,
Chinese processing, it's got

331
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,200
some other non lithium parts of
the business.

332
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,880
SQM with the issues around Chile
just make it too hard.

333
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,400
So I feel like for real, this is
all or nothing and this is the

334
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,760
strategic asset that they need
if they actually want to chase

335
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,120
off their lithium dreams.
So, so how do you think about

336
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,560
then getting the other
shareholders to to sort of see

337
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,400
your point of view?
I'm sure plenty of them will be

338
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,119
sort of pegged to a higher price
given where the stocks kind of

339
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,880
come from.
But as we kind of talked through

340
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:13,200
earlier, sort of breaking down
the the register, you've got a a

341
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,440
large number of passive funds
and then you've got a whole heap

342
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:21,440
of, you know, non substantial
stakes below 5%, a lot sort of 1

343
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,400
to 2% type stakes.
How do, how do you think about

344
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:28,600
getting them on the side on to
to sort of see, see your value?

345
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,000
Have you reached out and got a
bit of a feel for how they're

346
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,880
kind of thinking as well?
Yeah, we've, we've, you know,

347
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,400
since since that letter sort of
went went out, we've had quite a

348
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,240
few inbounds and had a few chats
with some.

349
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,200
Look, everyone's got different
views, they've got different

350
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,840
time horizons.
So some are happier to take, to

351
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,800
take a short term sugar hit.
Others are sort of a bit long

352
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,520
term like us.
So I mean, there's a variety of

353
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,480
views.
Everyone believes that the

354
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,240
assets are undervalued and it's
just about what the what the

355
00:17:58,240 --> 00:17:59,960
premium is if if the deals to
get done.

356
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:04,440
You've got a good sugar hit
today and a 45% kick up must

357
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,000
make you a bit happier.
Yes, it helps.

358
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,560
It does help.
I just Chuck Chuck inbounds to

359
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,000
mark in the YouTube comments.
While he's listening.

360
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,560
Everyone.
Does it, if it, you know, a deal

361
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,040
at six billion US, does that cut
the muster?

362
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,680
Well, we think 8 billion is is
closer to the right number.

363
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,600
We.
Put that number out there and

364
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,840
you know, today you've had a
couple of the, the research

365
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,920
houses come out with similar
numbers.

366
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,240
So cities said look, a
replacement value.

367
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,560
So if you were to rebuild Arcade
from from from scratch, it's

368
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,680
going to cost you a bit over $8
billion to do it.

369
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,640
Macquarie have come and said,
look, you know, if you value the

370
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,080
full resource base, they've got
8 1/2 billion US valuation.

371
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:51,960
So, you know, there's a few
numbers out there.

372
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,120
We we we think you know towards
Adeline is the right number.

373
00:18:56,200 --> 00:19:01,400
The challenge might be in that
if if Rio walked what what

374
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,560
happens to Arcadium share price?
It probably might come off a

375
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:06,400
bit.
Maybe it doesn't.

376
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,920
I'm I'm not sure.
But there's also, you look at

377
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,120
the field of potential like
Interlopus here.

378
00:19:11,120 --> 00:19:14,520
And like, I don't, I don't think
anyone comes to play other than

379
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:15,280
Rio, right?
Yeah.

380
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,640
Yeah, yeah, you're probably
right.

381
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,280
Maybe there is a fit there for
for Albemarle, but, you know,

382
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,520
they've got their own issues and
otherwise, you know, Rio's the

383
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,400
one, you know, the outsider who
wants to get into the industry.

384
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,640
You have the deep pockets so
that, you know, it makes sense

385
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:37,480
for them.
I guess.

386
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,200
Look, everyone's going to have
their their perspective.

387
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,720
But we're, our view was, look,
if you're going to be closer to

388
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:49,960
that $4 billion mark, you know,
share, we think it's better

389
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,600
valued for for acadium to walk
away from the deal, just go

390
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:55,760
alone.
Yeah, look, yeah, the management

391
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:57,280
team have pulled out these
targets.

392
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,160
They're, you know, they're
confident in executing them.

393
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,200
So they should back themselves
to go after it.

394
00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:05,440
You know, our personal view is,
you know, on the on the lithium

395
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,200
sort of cycle that we're, you
know, probably closer to the

396
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,800
bottom.
You know, we're pricing is now

397
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,920
you're hitting cost curve,
you're sitting, you're hearing

398
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,760
people curtailing minds.
You know, you sort of CATL.

399
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,960
You know it's tough out there,
but demand is, is is still OK

400
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,000
and you know the queue up for
low prices, low prices and with

401
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,920
patients we probably expect an
all time price cycle to happen

402
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,000
in the next couple of years.
Is there can you?

403
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:38,440
Do you have any info on whether
the offer was cash script mix or

404
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,720
and as a shareholder, what would
you be looking for from real?

405
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,520
Look, all we got to go by is
that Reuters article and I mean

406
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,520
there was a mention of the
script as well.

407
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,880
I think script might be hard
just because of the US investor

408
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,840
base.
Do they really want reoscript?

409
00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:00,280
Like if you're, if you're, you
know, ASX, you know, investor,

410
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,920
then you know, maybe reoscript
is OK at the right premium.

411
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,120
But yeah, I mean, just the US
investor base might be a bit too

412
00:21:07,120 --> 00:21:09,640
hard for them.
How do you sort of think about

413
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:11,840
value across the, the lithium
space?

414
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,720
I mean, on the on the back of
this news, we've seen almost

415
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,400
every name on the watch list
kick up.

416
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,280
Are you sort of getting excited?
Obviously you mentioned you

417
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,200
think we're sort of eaten, eaten
right into the cost curve near

418
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,400
the bottom of the the kind of
cycle.

419
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,480
But like you also said, if Rio
is not going to swing for some

420
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,280
of these names, who else kind of
is?

421
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,400
So it seems a little bit
premature that a lot of these

422
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,160
names are starting to run.
Are you still excited looking

423
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,360
out there?
Well, we're so excited.

424
00:21:40,360 --> 00:21:43,760
We're Arcadia for sure.
Any other names?

425
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,400
Like I said, we've, we've our
preference is to look at the

426
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,320
larger guys, you know who are,
you know, low on the cost curve

427
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,280
they're producing.
So you know, we have looked at

428
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:55,840
Pilbara, we have looked at IGO
before.

429
00:21:58,120 --> 00:22:02,240
Yeah, there, there is value
there, but people will have to

430
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,440
be patient.
I don't even though we're, we

431
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,320
think we are towards the bottom
of that cycle, that doesn't mean

432
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,240
that prices RIP tomorrow, right?
It's going to take a little

433
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:16,160
while, but you know, demand is
still solid and you've seen this

434
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,760
all those supply determined.
So you know, you need listing

435
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,920
prices to be at an incentive
price to to get you production

436
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,080
online.
Otherwise we're just going to

437
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,840
have the same price cycle again.
We're going to have a price

438
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,800
spike at some point.
And then we'll have, you know,

439
00:22:29,120 --> 00:22:31,920
everyone go gang Busters and
then spend a lot of capital and

440
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,400
we'll have a, you know, go, go
find the bottom again, right?

441
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,480
That's that's the way commodity
markets work.

442
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,720
Beautiful, beautiful mate.
Oh well, we'll we'll look

443
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,000
forward to engaging with you on
this journey mate.

444
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,520
This won't be the last time
we're talking this deal.

445
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,280
I don't reckon early stages.
So thanks for coming on short

446
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:52,600
notice mate.
Appreciate it, Mike.

447
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:53,200
Thank.
You great.

448
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,080
It's great to chat.
Thanks so much, Mike.

449
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:56,280
Thanks guys.
Yep.

450
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,320
How good was that?
Good stuff.

451
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:02,120
The one thing we didn't mention
The xx China.

452
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,240
That's that's an interesting
point that we probably didn't

453
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:07,760
cover.
It's bits and pieces right

454
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,560
there.
There is some bits, but you can

455
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,880
sort of divide.
If you send your South American

456
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:18,560
product to your US facilities,
then you're on side, but there

457
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,680
are downstream facilities that
have in in China too.

458
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,160
So yeah, sort of ebbs and flows,
but awesome to hear it's sort of

459
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,280
first hand from the the guys
themselves at Black Waddle.

460
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,280
Very, very long term view.
Like yeah, it's appearing like

461
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,960
because, you know, ex John is a
long term thought.

462
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,600
Yeah, that's right.
You sort of carve out your view

463
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,960
of where you think the company
will be in sort of three or four

464
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,560
years and that often tends to be
much easier than where the

465
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,160
company's going to be in six
months time.

466
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,920
Yeah.
Very much so, right.

467
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,120
Let's get into the other talking
points that you alluded to at

468
00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:52,600
the start of the show.
And the I guess the big one was

469
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:58,040
why, why is Rio Tinto picked
Arcadian, which you wouldn't say

470
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:02,680
is the frigging most stellar
blue chip lithium company in the

471
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:07,000
world by I guess reputation
complex, very complex, not like

472
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,200
doesn't have like the one of the
two biggest Braun.

473
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,720
Lots of operation.
Cost curve, Yeah, it's not.

474
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:19,080
So it's not Albemarle, No.
So why haven't they gone for

475
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,240
Albemarle?
It's a, it's a really good

476
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,120
question, Maddie.
Like there's a lot of, I think

477
00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:25,640
the, the, the rationale, there's
a bunch of different reasons

478
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,760
that I've written down here, but
the one that sort of sits well

479
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,080
the most is Arcadium just became
way too cheap on a, on a

480
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,520
relative basis.
Look at their underperformance

481
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,080
versus Albemarle or Pilbara.
Like, you know, Mike actually

482
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,720
outlines in the, in the letter
pen to, to the, to the board of,

483
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,960
of Arcadium.
It's like down 60 odd percent

484
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,880
year to date versus like, you
know, 40 odd for, for the other

485
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,440
two.
My Intel suggests that Rio took

486
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:54,840
a good look at it actually doing
a deal here about a year ago, by

487
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,360
the way, So you know, the the
the merger of of all Cam and

488
00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:02,480
live Ant was still completing
and and Rio had taken a I

489
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,640
understand Rio has taken a
pretty good look under the hood,

490
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,040
but couldn't get there on value
at that time.

491
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,200
In fact, I'd heard from someone
that you know, part of putting

492
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,120
all Cam and live and together
was actually, you know, to get

493
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,320
sufficient scale to actually
warrant being kind of acquired

494
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,360
by Rio in the long run to.
Dress up.

495
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:20,960
Yeah, yeah.
And.

496
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,320
So that and that when you say
that we're having a good look

497
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,000
that we're going to have a good
look post merger then.

498
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,880
Yeah, Yeah, it was.
You're looking at, you're

499
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,520
looking at the combined entity
and look at it didn't get over

500
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,080
the line.
We've, we've sort of, but that's

501
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,240
changed now because it's down
truckload on a relative basis.

502
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,120
So it probably just got a bit
too cheap.

503
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,320
I think, I think also just to go
on that point on an absolute

504
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:47,400
basis as well, right, because
you go back to years and you can

505
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,720
talk if one's relatively cheaper
than the others, but they're all

506
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,240
very expensive.
But now we're talking in terms

507
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,120
of the the EBITDA number that
was quoted and stuff in absolute

508
00:25:55,120 --> 00:25:58,080
terms, it could be quite cheap
if you're believing that's the

509
00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:00,640
the lithium pricing environment
we're going to see in a couple

510
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:01,480
years time.
Yeah.

511
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,720
The other point is in putting a
bunch of kind of like phone

512
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,480
calls out today to kind of make
sense of this.

513
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,360
I learned that I didn't know
this before, but I learned that

514
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,240
Rio actually has been really
focused on DLE.

515
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,120
Apparently they've built out a
pretty substantial technical

516
00:26:16,120 --> 00:26:19,200
team in Lithium.
Apparently they've been working

517
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,480
pretty hard on the technology
side themselves.

518
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,000
Apparently they're much more
interested in in in the

519
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,720
application of the technology
they've been working on in Brian

520
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,040
rather than spot.
You mean, because they think the

521
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,680
cost optimization of the
industry will make, you know,

522
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,160
some of these Brian projects
even more cheaper over time,

523
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,360
which complicates things for the
larger kind of spot

524
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,120
opportunities out there.
And look, Albemarle comes with

525
00:26:44,120 --> 00:26:46,360
plenty of spot, don't get me
wrong, like you know, but but

526
00:26:46,360 --> 00:26:48,960
Grand Bushes has a kind of
complex joint venture with

527
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,040
Tianchi and then what you know,
like you know, you got to accept

528
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,760
that means is operator of that
instead.

529
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:58,920
So it's kind of a more complex
kind of spod, semi spod

530
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,040
portfolio.
But it does open them up to

531
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,640
obviously the, the Atacama lot,
the evaporation side of things.

532
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:10,640
But if they're very interested
in DLA, it opens up the what is

533
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,920
it, the shale oil fields, the
what's the American ones?

534
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,480
What are they called?
The GSML.

535
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,720
Nah, not the Jr thermal, the
ones in America.

536
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,040
The bloody deep deep ones in the
oil field that they can't

537
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,360
evaporate but need to be DLA.
Yeah, I think, I don't think DLA

538
00:27:24,360 --> 00:27:27,640
is going to be like A11 size
fits all like I think I think

539
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,440
you'll have sort of bespoke
applications.

540
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,960
I don't even really know if
there's a commercial, you know

541
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,280
use yet or how far it is.
It's all you know let's wait and

542
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,040
see what eventuates there.
But my Intel suggests that Rio

543
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,840
is pretty optimistic about the
application.

544
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,600
They might also like, keep in
mind they, they, they acquired

545
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:48,200
Rincon, which is in Argentina
and but that that project in

546
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,320
itself might actually like need
DLA in order to, to sort of

547
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,040
stack up.
So they probably allocate a lot

548
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,280
of resources to this technology
side of things.

549
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,360
And as a result, they might have
gotten bullish on it and they,

550
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,080
they might have, they might
actually see the, the kind of

551
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,640
the long term cost curve as the,
the, the, the flat bronze kind

552
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,320
of kind of coming lower.
And, and you keep like, it's

553
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,520
the, it's the spot that's the
marginal stuff there.

554
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,000
And and you get, you know, if
the spot's still in the market,

555
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,600
then heck, you have even higher
margins for that if you're part

556
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,080
of the really low cost stuff
with the right technology that

557
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,040
that's what I believe their view
could be at the moment.

558
00:28:20,120 --> 00:28:22,760
Yeah, the smack over.
That's what I was trying to say.

559
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,200
The smack over.
Yeah, fulfilled bronze.

560
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,160
The the interesting thing will
be to see what they if if like

561
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,920
Fast forward a shit load if this
did happen, what they did with

562
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,760
the spot like like you'd say
Mount Catlin's probably pretty

563
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,880
immaterial to the whole of.
Arcade they declared that non

564
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:42,120
core.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

565
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,600
But you look at the James Bay
stuff, it's like, would that be,

566
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,440
is this?
Could you assure him, right.

567
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,240
If this happens, they'd probably
flog James Bay off and

568
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,840
spodumain.
Hard Rock is not a focus and

569
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,000
that sort of feeds into the
narrative as well.

570
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,320
Why they didn't go for
Albemarle?

571
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:05,400
Because Albemarle is good chunk
of value is green bushes yeah

572
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,240
and a bit of Wodgina which
they're a non operator at and

573
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,440
it.
Could it could be very

574
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,000
spodumainy, Yeah.
And my like, like I think

575
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,480
there's I think there's a
potential there like for for

576
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:16,520
sure.
And if you look at what

577
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,720
Arcadium's announcements have
have been in the last few

578
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,200
months, they've actually been
substantially to you know,

579
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,800
minimise their marginal
expenditure on any of their spot

580
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,240
projects.
So started in in August, they

581
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:34,640
basically announced that that
they pause, pause their spend on

582
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,440
on their Galaxy mine in James
Bay.

583
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,880
And then a month later they
declared that they pause the cut

584
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,200
back at Mount Catlin and that
was non core do an asset in

585
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,040
James Bay.
They're looking for a partner to

586
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,120
even fund the fund the rest of
that now.

587
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,880
So, you know, those are kind of
steps that maybe dress the

588
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,080
company up to be even more
attractive for an eventual deal

589
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,240
with Rio Tinto in that sense.
So I can I could I could get on

590
00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:01,640
board with that logic.
I also think like Arcadium's

591
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,920
brine assets are in Argentina,
not not Chile, right.

592
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:09,800
And you know, the CEO of Rio
Tinto, he Yakab, he used to live

593
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,440
in Argentina when he worked for
Shell.

594
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,800
You know, he's, it's a familiar
jurisdiction that we're

595
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,880
comfortable enough to, to buy a
ring on.

596
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,960
You had the regime change there,
which is supportive of of of

597
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,520
investment of mining investment
all of a sudden with the Malay

598
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,040
government.
At the same time, if you

599
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:30,360
acquired like Albemarle, you're
getting outsized exposure to the

600
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,200
to the Atacama in Chile, where
there's some uncertainty on how

601
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,880
the the royalty regime might
evolve in the post twenty 30s

602
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,600
there.
I don't quite remember what the

603
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,120
what happens then, JD, what is
it?

604
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:43,680
Well.
That the mine permit is mine,

605
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,760
which became a a big point of
discussion not too long ago.

606
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:51,360
And yet you've heard a lot more
in recent times about Chile

607
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,920
wanting to build out a Cadelco
of lithium.

608
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:59,280
So a deal earlier this year,
they paid 3 or $400 million to

609
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,440
to scoop up some assets there as
well.

610
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:08,600
So I think that people have been
a bit more risk off on Chile,

611
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,320
operating in Chile.
Is the would the royalty be

612
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,520
different in Argentina than
Chile because you'd say the cost

613
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:19,400
curve like the Atacama ones that
SQM and Albemarle are the lowest

614
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,800
cost producing assets.
But in terms, I think it's like

615
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:26,720
the all in cost of it is the
other end of the spectrum for

616
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,560
what Albemarle actually get
because of the huge royalty that

617
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,640
goes to Chile.
Yeah, everywhere's got its own.

618
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,560
Sort of problems, the royalty
regime is different but remember

619
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,960
for a long time the challenges
in Argentina, we're not being

620
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,120
able to actually get the cash
out of the country.

621
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,400
There's capital controls.
So that's all you know

622
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,880
supposedly in the works to
improve.

623
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,960
That's why BHP has invested a
huge amount of money, then the

624
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,640
London group have gotten
comfortable.

625
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,160
These things are apparently on
on a changing trajectory for the

626
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:56,040
better.
But.

627
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,320
I think we're going to put an
interview up either tomorrow or

628
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:04,160
Friday, but we spoke with Hugh
Mackay and and he talked about

629
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,480
this dynamic that oftentimes,
you know, big kind of countries

630
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,800
will have where they're like
receptive to wanting investment.

631
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,080
So they'll give some sweetheart
deals to kind of encourage

632
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,040
mining companies to to actually
invest.

633
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,680
But then those in the long run
is more investment kind of comes

634
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,000
in because the first move is
demonstrated it was OK.

635
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,880
Then all of a sudden those
early, those early like

636
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,360
agreements actually kind of
create conflict because then it

637
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,560
seems unfair and it kind of
creates this unrest.

638
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,320
I think with Chile, there's
something like that that's sort

639
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,520
of happening around the twenty
30s.

640
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,240
I need to get more information
about it.

641
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,240
But yeah, he explicitly,
explicitly mentioned something

642
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,960
there.
Is it, it was interesting to

643
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,680
look at the look at the
watchlist today and it sort of

644
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,520
happened, didn't happen right at
the starter trade, but like

645
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,960
lithium is they're all tearing
like I think God.

646
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,240
Everything Linetown was up
almost 20%.

647
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,920
Yeah, like, you know, Wildcat
28%, like, you know, pay made

648
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,920
up.
It wasn't up as much, but yeah,

649
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:06,520
like huge, huge moves.
But the underlying splodge main

650
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,920
price has not changed.
Hasn't changed any, any frios

651
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:14,800
view is actually, you know,
bullish, bullish Brian bearish

652
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,080
spot.
Then again, that sort of what's

653
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,000
a question mark over that spot?
And if they want to do this deal

654
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,720
and it's all on no commodity
price movement and potential,

655
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,120
you know M&A and everything,
this looks like it had time up

656
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,960
for a bit.
This would be a big deal to DD

657
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,960
was yeah, to get through, to get
over the line.

658
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,920
And we're at the start of the
potential frigging price

659
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,760
negotiation of it.
And I remember people telling us

660
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,160
maybe a month or so ago, a bit
less than a month ago when all

661
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:49,720
this news came out of cattle in,
in China and they said you're

662
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,560
not going to see the the prices
move straight away.

663
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,400
But give it sort of three or
four weeks and they'll move

664
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,360
because we saw the futures jump
up, you know, the GFX ones jump

665
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,840
up 8 sort of percent.
But we're here now 3 or 4 weeks

666
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,120
later and all the indications
we've got from granted not the

667
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,080
most transparent of pricing is
that it hasn't actually moved

668
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:11,760
yet and it's still around usus
750 to 806% so.

669
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,960
There's a comment there to like,
you know, at least Rio Tinto's

670
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,960
embarking on counter cyclical
M&A for once.

671
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,679
Like they had to be commended
for that.

672
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:22,960
Like, you know, yeah, genuinely,
you know, it's kind of

673
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,719
surprising to see Rio actually
confirmed that they'd bid for

674
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,000
something in what feels like a
through.

675
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,560
And certainly on any price chart
looks that way.

676
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:35,120
But there's.
Yeah, I'm not, I, I've, I've

677
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,360
come around to the view that
there's a lot of merit in in

678
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,159
Arcadia, if you believe the Rio
view of the world.

679
00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:43,040
I haven't completely come around
to the view that they wouldn't

680
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,159
subsequently look at Albemarle
down the track, too.

681
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,080
I think there is a consensus
view out there.

682
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,920
There's more pain on the horizon
for Albemarle.

683
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,400
A lot of debt, a lot of debt.
Like, you know, there's.

684
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,960
Yeah.
It'll be interesting to see how

685
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,600
things unfold for that company
over time.

686
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,400
And there might be, you know, a
more opportunistic moment for

687
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:05,600
Rio, like if you could scoop up
both Albemarle and and and

688
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,720
Arcadium, that gives you a
pretty commanding position in

689
00:35:07,720 --> 00:35:09,480
this market.
I understand that the fully

690
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:14,600
integrated, like the fully
integrated kind of lithium

691
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:18,400
production is, is what is really
attractive to to Rio as well.

692
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,560
You know, they, they're less
attractive to just sort of

693
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,880
having only upstream.
They love the integration part

694
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,080
of it.
They want value across the value

695
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:25,520
chain.
They've done sort of similar.

696
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,640
They had a similar strategy in
aluminium historically and it

697
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,160
looks like they've done
technical work sort of along

698
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,680
that value chain as well.
I think and the the Hulk Braun

699
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,040
and DLA and whether it's all
field Brauns, everything that's

700
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:43,160
it's it's resembles iron ore in
a way, high CapEx, long life,

701
00:35:43,240 --> 00:35:49,440
low cost, whereas spodumene
besides green bushes maybe like

702
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:53,760
they they aren't that as long a
lot like the bronze will just

703
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,280
they're freaking huge.
Yeah, the beautiful thing about

704
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,840
what made iron ore such a
phenomenal commodity to be in is

705
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:04,560
that you, you, you could have
the majors produce it, you know,

706
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:09,080
the teens dollars per tonne.
And then the price was, was

707
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,600
always underpinned at a much
higher like price never

708
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:15,160
gravitated down that way because
you had higher cost production

709
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,320
out of out of China.
You just had some high cost out

710
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,800
of, you know, India and Brazil
was high cost and also like W

711
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,800
Australia had other high cost
producers, which was

712
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,800
sufficiently large that it kept
the marginal production and

713
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,400
hence the, you know, the price
floor, it was way, way, way

714
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:30,640
higher.
So you could have phenomenal

715
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,800
margins if you'd sunk the rail
and you could produce it a

716
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,920
really low cost and a decent
deposit lithium.

717
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,200
Time will tell what that cost
curve looks like.

718
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,520
VHP is too scared because they
think it'll be too flat in the

719
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:41,720
long run.
Rio.

720
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,040
Rio looks like actually thinks
it could be a lot steeper

721
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,920
because they think that the
brine with DLE could actually

722
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,600
come even lower, which gives you
more margin if the marginal

723
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,560
producer is is spot.
Yeah, yeah.

724
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,680
Do you do you think there's ever
a chance Albemarle to dress

725
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:03,120
themselves up, would spin out
their Hard Rock and separate

726
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,960
that from their broadband and
converters?

727
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,200
You got a non controlling
interest in green bushes and

728
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,560
watching making up over half
your value.

729
00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:16,160
You know, if you kind of use IGO
is a bit of a, a proxy of the

730
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,440
value.
It's an interesting type of

731
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,800
proposition.
I think that in itself could be

732
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,400
something, you know, such a
deterrent for enough of a

733
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,200
deterrent for, for Rio right to
to spend that much money and not

734
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,280
be in control.
Yeah, that's what I mean.

735
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:31,800
What if they spun it out?
Yeah.

736
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,200
And then made the brine and the
brine and converter yeah,

737
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,000
vehicle as the one that.
I was looking at more from the

738
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,680
Rio, more from the lens of who
would be interested in buying

739
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,440
the Hard Rock.
Maybe that's the bit that

740
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,320
becomes Album.
The end of the day, Green Bush

741
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,240
is just like competitive with
the lowest cost Bryans.

742
00:37:50,240 --> 00:37:55,360
It's yeah, it's a phenomenal
kind of like yeah asset from

743
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:56,440
every stretch of the
imagination.

744
00:37:57,240 --> 00:37:58,560
I wouldn't be surprised to see
album.

745
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,600
I'll keep selling stuff like
looks like they're yeah, selling

746
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,480
everything they can.
They've got some real sort of

747
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,480
balance sheet stress.
So let's let's see what pops out

748
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:08,600
of there kind of stress over
time.

749
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,560
Maybe you can maybe maybe some
other companies can pick up

750
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,200
interesting assets that pop out
of there and maybe what's left

751
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,120
is actually interesting to Rio.
If it's mostly Brian that could,

752
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:18,960
that could be interesting.
What about getting a deal done

753
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,280
mate?
Yeah, I'm a basketball.

754
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,160
I do.
I think the leak complicates

755
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,480
things and but I do think a deal
can get done here.

756
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,600
I've like if it doesn't get
done, then we've got to have a

757
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,280
conversation about how by three
O and BHP suck at getting deals

758
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,760
done.
This they'd be they'd be like 2

759
00:38:37,240 --> 00:38:40,160
late large measures that they
just couldn't do I.

760
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,080
Think I think they'd call that
discipline mate.

761
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,320
Unless.
They're not getting.

762
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,320
A deal done at stupid prices,
yeah.

763
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,960
I, I think, I think both Rio and
Arcadium are motivated to do

764
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,160
this deal.
The big question, it's just

765
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,680
going to come come down to an
agreement on price and you know,

766
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,440
you can hear how the
shareholders think about that

767
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,400
based on what what Mike had to
say.

768
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,200
But like I said, the last few
months of announcements out of

769
00:39:03,240 --> 00:39:07,680
Arcadium to me look like they
are making their portfolio more

770
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:11,760
attractive to, you know, what,
what Rio likes about the company

771
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,480
as in a sort of pausing
incremental spend on the things

772
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,080
that are less interesting to
them.

773
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,160
But there's still a risk that it
slips away, right.

774
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,960
Like you said, the market cap
even after the 45% uplift is 3.3

775
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,320
billion, yet the, the, the
rumoured deal that like value

776
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:27,840
that's going around is four to
six.

777
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,960
So the markets clearly pricing
in a substantial risk that the

778
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,800
kind of deal falls off.
At the same time, there's like

779
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,040
room for an uplift there again,
if, if the deal eventuates.

780
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,000
So the market's not sure, right?
And I, I think it, it could go

781
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,800
either way.
Like, yeah, these things are at

782
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,880
the margin a lot harder to get
over the line when once they've

783
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,000
leaked because you have
shareholders sort of.

784
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,040
Bloody podcast talking about.
It exactly totally yeah like

785
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,760
there's no shortage of of views
and but I also look at the the

786
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:02,360
register of Arcadium and bring
it up there that's a that's a

787
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,520
beautiful register to get a deal
done there's there's no blocking

788
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:11,080
stake there from like a a
shareholder that's got stars in

789
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,120
their eyes there's heaps and
heaps of passive money there

790
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,160
there's.
And there's a lot of like, you

791
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,480
know, it's just, it's just a
beautiful share shareholder

792
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,720
registry of 1 to 2% interest
here and there.

793
00:40:21,720 --> 00:40:24,640
So in terms of actually like the
execution side of things, like

794
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,400
it's going to be hard to get a
block of shareholders there to

795
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,400
sort of fight against it.
I think, I just think, I think

796
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,760
there's a, there's motivation,
there's a history here, I think

797
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,720
of wanting to actually create
this marriage over a longer

798
00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:41,000
period of time.
I think the, the, the Rio can

799
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,600
clearly actually see value at
these levels for once.

800
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,080
Just depends like are they, are
they both going to get enough of

801
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,400
an uplift that shareholders are
happy at the same time, you

802
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,600
know, Rio still sees value.
That's TBA, but I I think a deal

803
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,440
is very doable.
All cash.

804
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,160
You just show script from Rio?
Or do you reckon Rio?

805
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,760
I I, I think that's the most
likely thing you would see, but

806
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,600
I think script is an easier sell
to shareholders because they get

807
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:11,120
the rollover relief on it and
they, you know, yeah, it would

808
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,360
be like, I actually think Rio.
Oh.

809
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,840
So so that happens it that's
America as well.

810
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,960
Rollover relief with script is
it?

811
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,160
I think you can get you.
Have to apply for it.

812
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,760
Yeah, it's not.
It's not a given, but yeah.

813
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,120
Cold.
Would they have any?

814
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:26,480
So.
Anything to roll over?

815
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,680
Yeah, like, yeah, I mean, I
mean, what do you mean by that?

816
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,040
The.
Isn't rollover relief for

817
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,120
capital gains?
Capital gains, yes.

818
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,400
Would they be capital gains?
Yeah.

819
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,480
They went in the IPR.
Yeah, holding it from Galaxy

820
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:44,320
days.
Yeah, well.

821
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,560
You know it would have been up
to hold it for a while.

822
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,080
Yeah, yeah.
It's a fairpoint, but yeah, I

823
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,840
would like if I were a
shareholder and I would, I think

824
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,760
script kind of makes the deal
easy, but I think it's just

825
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,680
unlikely.
You know, he's got heaps of

826
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:00,960
cash.
They should spend that cash on

827
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,680
what I think is a creative way
to spend it in this deal, yeah.

828
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,360
This has been a winner for the
investment banks as well.

829
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,000
Year after year there's a deal
with if you've latched yourself

830
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,320
onto to Galaxy or a Cobra or
something like that.

831
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,000
I mean remember the the fees
involved in the last one was my

832
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,040
mind blowing.
They were the biggest fees I'd

833
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:18,960
ever seen for a deal of that
size.

834
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,240
L can and live in merger.
I think we put up the scheme,

835
00:42:21,240 --> 00:42:23,520
Doc.
It was like the north of US 150,

836
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,440
yeah.
It was something obscene for a

837
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,280
merger.
I just put a bit of food on the

838
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,080
table, got A and mentioned it
before.

839
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:36,400
But it interesting that because
if you collate the rumours going

840
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,320
around like maybe Royale by
Pilbara, maybe Royale by

841
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:46,040
payment, right?
Like this is change and whether

842
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,480
this opens up a lot of different
parties for those.

843
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,240
And it's just so interesting
that none of the other majors,

844
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,920
obviously we mentioned BHB, but
we haven't seen Glencore Anglo.

845
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,320
They've got enough problems of
their own, but none of the other

846
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:03,600
big guys have shown any
interest.

847
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,200
We're doing a a lithium deal
that's a.

848
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,520
No, Glencore did have interest
in there was.

849
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,600
No trading, wasn't it?
They were rumoured to want to

850
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,440
pick up Bald Hill and IPO it for
a billion dollars.

851
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,480
If you could pick up that for
pocket change, you'd do it.

852
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,680
And, and capitalists, yeah,
they, they, they, they are,

853
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,200
their lithium trading business
has been incredibly profitable

854
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:29,440
and they're looking to grow
that.

855
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,680
Yeah, yeah.
I'm sure they'll get creative if

856
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,640
there are some distressed
opportunities out there and they

857
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:39,560
might end up, yeah, learning to
own in some, some instances,

858
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,280
yeah.
If there if there's enough value

859
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,920
that they'd do it, but that
hasn't exactly presented itself

860
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:49,040
in in lithium land just yet.
Bloody very, very interesting.

861
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,880
I think it bloody for because
this day to day process is going

862
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,320
to be frigging huge.
Mandatory CRE insurance, a

863
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,640
review of all these bloody 10
assets you talk about, JD.

864
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:00,960
Took the words out of my mouth
mate.

865
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,840
But you know, when you're that
vertically integrated with brine

866
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,880
and chemicals, I need one asset
to fall off.

867
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,040
The whole tower comes tumbling
down.

868
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:11,840
You're not vertically integrated
anymore.

869
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,080
Go you go, Jodi.
Just think Arcade and there's so

870
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,480
much going on, it's so complex.
But CRA, they just thrive on the

871
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,120
complexity now. 10 assets, not a
problem.

872
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:25,640
More complex the better.
Bloody probably the only way

873
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,480
it's going to get over the line.
Rio cross your T's dot your eyes

874
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:34,280
get bloody CRE insurance to go
bloody review these assets for

875
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:35,720
you.
I want to see it in the in the

876
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:39,120
dock.
The takeover dock CRE approved.

877
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:41,400
That's it.
They're happy to go to Japan,

878
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,600
China, Argentina, Canada to
doodle.

879
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,560
Keep it every bloody global
mining company safe, no matter

880
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:48,560
what commodity or jurisdiction.
JD.

881
00:44:48,720 --> 00:44:53,080
Go CRA.
Speaking of oh jeez, yeah anyway

882
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:58,600
more more negative news, but
another W African resources that

883
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,000
have to be the most like if you
go through historic massive

884
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:07,640
drops in a day, it would have to
be accumulated the most with all

885
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,920
the coups and.
Everything operating in West

886
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,960
Africa.
Became a fossa and and today is

887
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,120
one of them tried it down, you
know 25% shortly after open then

888
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,680
went into a pause in trading,
then reopened.

889
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:25,400
Yeah, yeah.
Then the I guess the the all

890
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,520
around the possibility,
scepticism, whatever you want to

891
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:34,560
call it of nationalising mining
and became a fossa, but nothing

892
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,120
confirmed yet, just fear.
Yeah.

893
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,320
So that's the that's the sort of
drama we're talking about here.

894
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:44,000
You remember about a month or
two months ago we spoke about

895
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,160
potential changes to the mining
code.

896
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:50,560
So not nationalisation, but
equally quite worrying for

897
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,480
shareholders.
And that one turned out to be a

898
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,200
by the dip moment.
So you started by saying,

899
00:45:56,200 --> 00:46:00,200
Maddie, more negative news, but
perhaps there is a bit of silver

900
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,520
lining to this one.
If you remember that one a

901
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,640
couple months ago now, within a
week, the share price had

902
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,600
completely recovered and they
just sort of took it in its

903
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,320
stride.
So it's worth looking at how

904
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:15,520
this one's kind of shaping up.
A lot of people still digesting

905
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,880
the news.
So I think that'll be more to

906
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,800
come in the, you know, the next
couple weeks about this one.

907
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:26,600
It all comes off the back of the
military hunter leader Ibrahim

908
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,520
Traore speaking on the the
national radio on Saturday.

909
00:46:31,240 --> 00:46:33,920
Essentially what he said about
mining.

910
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,280
This was in a, a broader
conversation talking about

911
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,080
corruption, talking about the
the, the military kind of

912
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,720
challenges in the the North East
of the country.

913
00:46:42,720 --> 00:46:46,040
But there was a segment on
mining and potentially pulling

914
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,440
the permits of some foreign
operators.

915
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,040
So this was then covered by
Reuters and all these other sort

916
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,880
of publications.
There was a sort of quote that

917
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,360
particularly stood out.
I will just read it out now we

918
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,600
know how to mine our gold and I
don't understand why we are

919
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,960
letting multinationals come in
and mine it.

920
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:07,680
So again, he didn't name any
companies specifically but of

921
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,080
size in Bikini you've got Wolf
who we're talking about today,

922
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,080
but overseas you've got
Endeavour Nord Gold, they're

923
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:18,560
Russian group as well as Ozone.
So it's worth mentioning these

924
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:20,880
these couple other operations
because I think they might cut

925
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:26,400
come relevant in a little bit.
But Bongu and Waggon Yon.

926
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,240
Not sure if I'm pronouncing that
one right.

927
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,240
Definitely got that right.
Thank you, gents.

928
00:47:31,240 --> 00:47:35,360
But these assets were previously
owned by Endeavour.

929
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:41,440
There was a transaction with
Lilium Mining in 2023.

930
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,440
This led to a bit of a dispute
in which the government came in.

931
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:47,840
They now own it.
The government has scooped up

932
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:49,280
these assets.
They've said they'll pay

933
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:53,200
Endeavour US $60 million by the
end of the year.

934
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,000
Now we just put a pin in them
for now, but I think they could

935
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:59,960
come relevant in terms of
companies acting in line with

936
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,800
the the mining code.
But like we sort of said at the

937
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,240
beginning, is, is a by the dip
moment.

938
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,840
That's the kind of big question
people are trying to answer

939
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:09,640
here.
And the investors that are

940
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,640
familiar with West Africa,
they've invested in West African

941
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:14,240
miners before.
They will have seen this stuff

942
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,000
hundreds of times before.
It happens, you know, across the

943
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:22,000
continent many times a year.
So off in that trading pause

944
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:25,040
that you mentioned, Maddie came
out with an update as well, just

945
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,560
a simple one page trying to
alleviate the fears of

946
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,320
shareholders.
And I actually think they did a

947
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:34,840
a bit of a decent job at it.
If you see in the the course of

948
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:39,040
sales for those listening in,
shares closed at $1.66 on

949
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,240
Friday.
They opened today at $1.30

950
00:48:42,240 --> 00:48:45,120
before trading downwards to
$1.24.

951
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,680
Then they went into a 80 minute
pause in trading in which this

952
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,920
announcement came out.
West African just took the

953
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:53,880
stance that they have adhered to
everything.

954
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:55,880
They've got a good relationship
with the government.

955
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:59,240
They've won a couple awards for
being the best operators in

956
00:48:59,240 --> 00:49:01,000
country.
And there was a segment here

957
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:05,240
that specifically stood out to
me talking about this being a

958
00:49:05,240 --> 00:49:09,080
stance against miners who have
not adhered to the mining code.

959
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,640
So that leads to people pointing
fingers to those couple

960
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:16,080
operators before and perhaps
some actions that, you know,

961
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,360
we're not quite aware of, but
other type of operators who

962
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:23,040
haven't followed the letter of
the law and paid the taxes they

963
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,200
need to pay and these sorts of
things and.

964
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:27,800
Right.
I'm so keen to go deep on those

965
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,040
two projects that you talk that
you mentioned there, which were

966
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,760
previously owned by Endeavour.
Endeavour Yeah, there's some

967
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,880
juicy word on the decline about
what happened there.

968
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,680
There is some very juicy word on
the decline.

969
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:44,120
So that Lilium Group is owned by
a Lilium Capital, which is also

970
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:49,360
from Burkina, which is all tied
to this one bikini businessman.

971
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:52,160
And there was.
He accused Endeavour of not

972
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,640
revealing all that needed to be
revealed in the sales process.

973
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,040
And then essentially Endeavour
said you haven't paid us the

974
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,840
money you said you'd pay.
And the Bikini government tried

975
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:05,960
to step in and mediate that.
Overlay that with the departure

976
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:07,960
of Endeavour's.
Former CEO.

977
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:13,280
Former CEO as well in an
unexplained transaction.

978
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,560
It's just a whole.
There's a whole story there that

979
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:20,280
is not being published in the
the local media reports.

980
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,360
I can guarantee that.
Just to the point on how the

981
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:26,360
West African response had been
taken by the market.

982
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:29,640
They went into that pause of
trading $1.24, they came out

983
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,880
$1.37.
So it looked like investors

984
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:33,480
also.
There's like 80 minutes for

985
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:36,800
people's to sort of mall over
and see what what's actually at

986
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,920
risk here, what's going on and
they seem to like it.

987
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,280
It's sort of trading in and
around that level at the the

988
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:46,120
time where recording on volume.
That's a good few multiples of

989
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,880
the average daily trading
multiples.

990
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:52,840
So a lot still to digest as
we've kind of spoken about West

991
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:57,000
African a bunch in the past, you
know by 2026 four 160,000 oz,

992
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,240
you know on sort of conservative
numbers that could be a bit

993
00:51:01,240 --> 00:51:05,280
under a billion dollars in
EBITDA, bit over 600 in free

994
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:08,680
cash for a $1.5 billion Business
Today.

995
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:12,840
So it's just how you kind of tie
a number to the risk of

996
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,880
operating in this country and.
They, I think they get tainted

997
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:21,120
by like Burkina Faso is decent
size, so there's different parts

998
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:24,720
of Burkina Faso, but they get
tainted as everything that

999
00:51:24,720 --> 00:51:27,360
happens in Burkina Faso taints
the whole of Burkina Faso.

1000
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:29,680
Yeah.
And it's it is not the case.

1001
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:32,480
It's, it's similar with Mali as
well, but you like

1002
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,920
geographically as you're kind of
explaining it there, Maddie, the

1003
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,760
northeast of the country, the
north of the country is, you

1004
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,160
know, a much more challenging
and dangerous place to to

1005
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,800
operate.
So, and that was again, that was

1006
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,760
another thing that was addressed
by the the military junta in

1007
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,280
their announcement on Saturday,
how they're going about making

1008
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,680
the country safer and removing
the terrorist groups that that

1009
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:57,520
sort of reside in the the north
of the country there.

1010
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:01,560
So the one of the things to look
out for if you're a Wolf holder

1011
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:02,800
interested in this company is
that.

1012
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,120
OJC is, by the way, Ding.
Ding for Ding, Ding, Ding.

1013
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:10,000
Yeah, the the mining code
potential changes that hasn't

1014
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,880
played out yet.
So that was going from a 10%

1015
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:16,320
free carried interest for the
government up to 15.

1016
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:20,520
And what Wolf said at the time
was that they believe they are

1017
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:24,440
grandfathered in that system and
that former 10% rate will apply

1018
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:26,400
to them.
There was no confirmation from

1019
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:28,320
the government that that that is
in fact true.

1020
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,800
So we'll have to sort of wait
and see how that kind of plays

1021
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,000
out in time.
That's one to keep your eyes on

1022
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,440
as a as a wolf holder or
somebody interested there.

1023
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:38,920
But you know, As for what's
happened sort of today, I'm keen

1024
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,480
to see what Endeavour does when
they trade overnight kind of

1025
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,120
Canada, if they're hit as
severely, they're a bit more

1026
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:49,240
sheltered in that they're not
just a pure play Bikina minor

1027
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:53,120
like W African is.
But yeah, we'll see if this

1028
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,680
ultimately ends up being a buy
the dip situation or not.

1029
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,680
I'd say Richard Hodge phone is
permanently plugged into power

1030
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,280
today.
Bloody ringing off the hook.

1031
00:53:03,240 --> 00:53:05,040
I'm sure he's handled on a 12
days in his time.

1032
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:09,520
Making a fortune, mate.
Right, Next up, So we've seen a

1033
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:14,520
very unexpected backflip from
the Takeovers panel in regard to

1034
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:19,560
the proposed ERA entitlement
offer, which this is very

1035
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,760
interesting, especially to me
because you know me.

1036
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:27,040
So brief one for people who
don't know when we say, alright,

1037
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:31,120
that's a Jabiluka uranium
deposit in NT, £300 million at

1038
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:37,400
.55% uranium decline already to
the ore body, Rio owns 86% of

1039
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,240
it, just shy of compulsory
acquisition.

1040
00:53:40,240 --> 00:53:45,000
But to minority shareholders,
Packer and Co, 9.3%, Sentry

1041
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:49,120
another 3%.
So 25th or so, I'll go through

1042
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:51,280
what happened in the lead up and
where, where we are today.

1043
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,240
So on 25th of September, the
that's when the takeovers panel

1044
00:53:54,240 --> 00:53:59,040
declined to conduct proceedings
from the application by Packer

1045
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:04,200
and Carl and Zemtree about Rio
wanting to raise $880 million

1046
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,400
via an entitlement offer at
Point OO 2%.

1047
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:11,120
So essentially, if the minority
shareholders didn't tip in their

1048
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,200
pro rata amount and continue
riding the pump, rail would go

1049
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,400
over 90% and proceed to
compulsory acquisition.

1050
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:21,520
And this was then after
obviously Prime Minister said

1051
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,080
that they're going to
incorporate it into Kakadu

1052
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:27,480
National Park and pretty much
squash it forever.

1053
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,400
Yeah, so.
And that that price that they

1054
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,560
were going to raise your time,
it was just, it was a severe

1055
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:37,880
discount was like 90.
I think the the 80 million that

1056
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,760
didn't be worth 14 for Yeah.
And Carl, something like that.

1057
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:42,840
Was a crazy discount, but that
also would have said the

1058
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:46,520
probable acquisition price of
the remaining interest as well.

1059
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,240
And it actually, yeah, it
actually said that the IT says

1060
00:54:49,240 --> 00:54:51,200
it right here.
Rio intends to proceed with

1061
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:55,320
compulsory acquisition of all
remaining ERERI shares at an

1062
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,600
offer price of .002.
Yeah.

1063
00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,560
So what then happened after the
takeover?

1064
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:00,920
This panel made that initial
ruling.

1065
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,720
Well, the next day, that's when
the minority shareholders when

1066
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:05,640
or say minority are referred to
the two.

1067
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:10,920
They wrote to the Takeover's
panel to review the decision and

1068
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:15,840
based on today's announcement,
it appears because they said

1069
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,000
they didn't even conduct the
proceedings.

1070
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,600
So it appears that they've
written to the president of the

1071
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:28,040
Takeovers panel and they have
decided that a fair process was

1072
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:30,480
not followed because they didn't
even conduct the proceedings.

1073
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:32,520
They just said no, it's not
happening.

1074
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,920
And based on that, they've now
got a independent board

1075
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:42,280
committee that will actually
review the application made by

1076
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:46,520
Packer and Co and and Zentry,
which was, you know, pretty,

1077
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:48,640
yeah, pretty.
It was pretty clear cut that

1078
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,600
they said we we do not intend to
conduct proceedings.

1079
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:56,520
And now they said, no, we will
review the review.

1080
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,480
Essentially it's like a bit of a
double review.

1081
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:01,920
So and there's.
No guarantee that conducting

1082
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:04,160
proceedings would deliver.
No, it just means they're

1083
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:06,560
actually, they're now got an
independent committee that's

1084
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:09,200
going to actually, because
because their whole thing is

1085
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:13,160
their, you are saying like
you're not going to conduct

1086
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,600
proceedings, you're going to let
this entitlement offer go

1087
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:18,880
through when there's actually a
federal Court case in play

1088
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,040
regarding this and say, hey, can
you actually do an entitlement

1089
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:27,480
offer when there's an ongoing
federal Court case about what

1090
00:56:28,720 --> 00:56:31,920
you know, the Prime Minister and
Madeleine King of the decision

1091
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,200
they made and the, the
interesting facts that came to

1092
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,840
light just at the end of last
month, about a week ago, was

1093
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:42,960
that so Resources Minister
Madeleine King was advised by

1094
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:48,000
her office that prior to making
this decision to incorporate it

1095
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:53,320
in the to not extend the permit.
The legal challenge was unlikely

1096
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:56,360
because Rio Tinto, the major
shareholder, does not support

1097
00:56:56,360 --> 00:57:00,600
mining at Jabaluka and they
would not fund AR as challenge

1098
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:04,800
because of the public backlash.
So The Who she was advised by

1099
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:10,040
clearly missed the point that
minority shareholders also have

1100
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:14,120
a say, think that they'll sort
of say, oh, Rio Tinto owns the

1101
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:15,600
whole thing and they won't do
it.

1102
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:21,000
And ARA pretty much immediately
sued them, effectively.

1103
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:23,640
So it was now.
The takeover span would

1104
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:27,800
typically have to operate pretty
quickly, so we should see an

1105
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,120
update in the next few weeks
again.

1106
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,320
Yeah, I assume they didn't put a
timeline on this one.

1107
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:35,560
No, no, not for the review, no.
So like, yeah, so there's the

1108
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:39,520
review, but then there's the
obviously the the court thing

1109
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:42,560
going on as well.
So it's like what I guess what's

1110
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,760
the, what's the possibilities if
that review comes back in the

1111
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:47,480
favour of the minority
shareholders?

1112
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:50,240
Obviously they want the
entitlement office squashed for

1113
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:52,680
the moment while the Federal
Court case is ongoing.

1114
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,000
They want to drag that.
I assume they want to drag that

1115
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,360
out as long as possible that
because that means they don't

1116
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:59,880
have to stump up the cash yet to
stay in the game.

1117
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,840
And will it, I've mentioned this
before, will it drag on long

1118
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,360
enough before the federal
election, which is likely going

1119
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:10,040
to be next year?
Will that then, if there was a

1120
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:13,880
change, see that decision to
incorporate Jabaluka in the

1121
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:17,320
Kakadu National Park Park
overturned by a new government?

1122
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:20,800
Lot of balls in the air.
But because it is a renounceable

1123
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,880
entitlement, which means that
the minority shareholders can

1124
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:28,240
find some other parties to take
up their entitlement to stay in

1125
00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:30,320
the game.
But you know, while there's a

1126
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:34,520
court case going on, it's pretty
fucking hard to do that when

1127
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,720
when they did the investor
sounding and the only person

1128
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:39,400
that wanted the only company
that wanted to tip in was Rio

1129
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,800
Tinto.
So could be another fund.

1130
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:46,400
But don't forget old buddy.
Yeah, like someone like a boss

1131
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,200
energy as well, because they
were putting in a bid before all

1132
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:54,200
this decision happened.
So who who knows, like, you

1133
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,040
know, propose they'll propose in
a free carried interest for the

1134
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:58,880
mirror people.
I just don't.

1135
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:03,680
I think this is far from over.
It's juicy, juicy story.

1136
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:05,760
Drag on.
Yeah, see where it goes.

1137
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:09,000
It's very interesting.
It's and, and because the whole,

1138
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:12,320
the whole critic of the, the
whole process for this rehab is

1139
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:15,520
just like the cost of the rehab
is just being astronomical for,

1140
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,360
for Ranger.
I'll just, I'll just think of

1141
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:20,520
the shareholder money that could
have been saved for the

1142
00:59:20,520 --> 00:59:24,160
minorities if bloody race and
Australian Earth movement and

1143
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:27,040
haulage were doing it for him.
Geez, they'd do it economically,

1144
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:29,200
wouldn't they?
Bloody Packer and Cowan's entry

1145
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:32,920
be in much a better spot if the
bloody race was up there on his

1146
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:35,000
D sixes and D eights and even.
Rio.

1147
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:38,360
Trucks and trailers mate, Rio
would be mate, they'd be able to

1148
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:41,160
actually afford to pay a bit
more for arcadium because they

1149
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:42,840
would have saved this much on
the rehab.

1150
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:47,040
Yeah, like tell you what anyway,
but luckily we're.

1151
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:50,280
Doing a Rio Tinto version of
Rehab, not a not a nimble miner.

1152
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,920
Man, but that's the thing race
and IAH can actually do a Rio

1153
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,440
Tinto quality job.
Yeah, quality at a like a a

1154
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:02,800
small cap price effectively.
That's that is unparalleled

1155
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:04,800
expertise in earth moving and
haulage.

1156
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:08,360
So lucky for all you mining
companies out there, race and

1157
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,680
IAH are not consumed by Rio
Tinto at the moment and

1158
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:14,880
available right now for make
clearing for construction,

1159
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:19,560
drilling, building dams.
Rehabilitation works post mining

1160
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:21,920
which they could have done at
Jabaluka Bloody.

1161
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:23,160
Right now I can just call them
up.

1162
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,520
Right, that easy?
Do you want to do it?

1163
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:27,080
You can call him right now if
you want.

1164
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:29,800
Quick, quick break.
JD just called him and he picked

1165
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:30,720
up.
Easy as that.

1166
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:36,160
Say it Very Yeah.
Oh, Oregon.

1167
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:39,480
It's bloody cool.
That is a very very interesting

1168
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:40,600
survey.
Super keen.

1169
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:42,680
I'm in.
The history already up to today

1170
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:45,800
is sort of mind bogglingly
fascinating, so we'll see where

1171
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:47,880
it goes from here and what kind
of happens.

1172
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:49,680
I think you might be right.
I think there might be a little

1173
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:52,000
bit left in this one, so wait
and see.

1174
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:54,640
Looking at like I was reading a
little bit over the weekend

1175
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:58,920
about the, the Betaloo gas basin
in the NT and that's got mad,

1176
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,840
mad support behind.
Yeah, there's kind of like

1177
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:06,560
onshore gas projects sort of
getting up off the ground in, in

1178
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:10,600
the NT and like it's kind of
confusing.

1179
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:14,120
Why Like why can't, Yeah, why
there's sort of support for some

1180
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:15,800
projects and others.
I mean, we've heard about the

1181
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:20,120
like the, yeah, tremendous
amount of like solar projects

1182
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,520
that kind of got off the ground
and got approved in, in very

1183
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:24,520
short order and all the
territory as well.

1184
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,640
Don't know mate.
There's some some some some

1185
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:29,720
forms of fucking.
Some forms of projects are easy

1186
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:31,560
to to happen and others just get
squashed.

1187
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:35,080
Maybe, maybe it's all is good in
NT because of the wet season and

1188
01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:38,200
everything so the IT washes the
dust off the solar panels what

1189
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,120
you don't need to wash them.
So it just shows you how

1190
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:43,640
important efficient managing
that, you know, social licence

1191
01:01:43,640 --> 01:01:46,720
is right from the off, you get
to sort of manage it.

1192
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:51,000
If you like the project you just
mentioned, you know how good,

1193
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:54,200
Like if you've got the people on
your side, you've got the people

1194
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:57,480
in power on your side as well,
then yeah, you got a much

1195
01:01:57,480 --> 01:01:59,680
clearer line of sight to
actually producing and returning

1196
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:02,440
money for your shareholders.
And I think this was the first,

1197
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:07,400
this was the first of like the
what would you say what the, the

1198
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:12,720
flow on of traditional owner
mining news stories before, like

1199
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:14,720
this was officer before the
Mcfillimmys thing.

1200
01:02:14,720 --> 01:02:17,640
Because the, the, the thing at
the start was though, it was

1201
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,520
like there was 2 sets of people
talking to each other.

1202
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:22,760
You got the Prime Minister
talking to the obviously the

1203
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,920
leader.
But then like the you got that

1204
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:29,440
sounded like ARA, like the the
you hear that the mirror people

1205
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:33,120
are all for free carried
interest, but the leaders not

1206
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:37,560
like there's just so much divide
in a lot of these stories.

1207
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:39,440
Obviously Mcphillimy's was a bit
different.

1208
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:44,040
It was just a a rogue, a rogue.
I think it's a section that

1209
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:45,960
wasn't a leader, I think.
It's like these this the

1210
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:48,560
Mcphillimy's was Section 10
review.

1211
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,240
I'm not sure if that was the
same thing with Jabaluka I.

1212
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:52,080
Didn't.
No, no.

1213
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:54,680
This was its lease coming up.
For exactly, Yeah, I know.

1214
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:56,960
But the whole whole thing of
like, you know, boss putting

1215
01:02:57,000 --> 01:03:00,880
forward a, a proposal for a deal
and then they're like not prime

1216
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,320
minister's like nuts going into
the National Park and we're

1217
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:06,880
squashing it forever.
Yeah, it's yes, very.

1218
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:11,320
That's been one of the more
topical things this year is

1219
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,600
Australian native title.
And sovereign risk, it's been

1220
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:18,480
described as yeah, it's yeah.
It is very much so.

1221
01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:23,520
Yeah.
Call it a day, gentlemen.

1222
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,680
That's bloody.
She's been a RIP snorter to

1223
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:28,240
start the week.
Tell you what, got some minutes

1224
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:29,880
out today.
Action packed.

1225
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,440
Oh, surely since we've been
doing this, someone's called MMS

1226
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,880
for a contract like there's
Yeah, they're at least probably

1227
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:40,240
getting one an hour because who
else would you call to move to

1228
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:41,120
get?
Him where we can.

1229
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:44,520
I don't know who else would you
call to build a donger for you

1230
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:48,960
then Grounded Construction Group
and mate Timmy Taylor Jeezy can

1231
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:52,600
whip up a bloody hybrid power
station quick as anything with

1232
01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:55,440
cross boundary energy.
Dave Sandvik, Ground Support,

1233
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:01,680
CRE Insurance, Rio, Get Onto
Them, Greenlands Equipment,

1234
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:05,160
Turnkey Mine, Water Management,
K Drill, the Drilling Experts,

1235
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:10,680
MMTS, Australian Earthworks and
Haulage and good old Spark

1236
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:12,400
Charts.
Odorow Chance.

1237
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:16,040
Odorow.
Information contained in this

1238
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,800
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1239
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:21,440
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1240
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:23,480
or needs of any particular
person.

1241
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:26,840
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1242
01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:29,880
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1243
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:33,560
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.