8 Fascinating Reporting Season Details

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Righto buddy miners.
Another week, another week of

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bloody money of mine.
Top shelf info coming up then

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good old bloody.
Speaking of top shelf, Axis

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mining technology drill hole
server instrumentation gurus.

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I'm not giving much away, but
there might be some new shit

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coming out.
I look forward.

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To it.
That is all I'm saying.

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Gone from the best to even
better.

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It's like ranked one to ranked
zero, even higher than one boys.

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What do we got for today?
We are going to start with a bit

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of a sort of recap in a way of
the reporting season, Maddie.

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We're going to highlight eight
of the most sort of interesting

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or fascinating talking points or
details that we didn't have time

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to get into over the past month.
And then I think we're going to

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move into a bit of Genesis.
Better, better Genesis.

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Bit of bit of news there.
I'm I'm doing a lot of

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inferring, pardon the pun.
We'll see.

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We'll see if I'm right or not.
I'm looking forward to seeing

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what you've drummed up there,
mate.

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Yeah, kind of big news,
actually.

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By JD so and Travia is a this
interesting details of reporting

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season, which is most people
would look at and think, jeez,

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that's a lot to read, but you
handed it to him on a platter

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here, take it away.
What's for the entree?

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You're dead right, Maddie.
You can be a bit weighed down in

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the in the detail by just the
sheer volume of information

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coming at you.
But we've tried to pick out a

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few things that we found
interesting as we were kind of

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re listening to a few of the
calls and you know, perhaps

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looking at a couple of slide
decks.

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So the first one is from Rio
Tinto and it was it was an

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interesting call that they put
on.

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This was almost a sort of month
ago roughly now, but in this

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sort of recap, I thought it'd be
worth highlighting their kind of

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perspective on M&A.
So there was an interesting

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question put forward by James
Redfern of B of A and they're

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sort of talking about M&A paying
a premium on a deal and

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synergies and all these things.
So let's hear it from them.

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Yeah.
I think you made some comments

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earlier that in terms of any
potential M&A that the potential

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synergies need to exceed the
potential premium paid, which is

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often quite difficult.
I mean, if you know, if you take

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Tech Resources for example in
the press couple weeks ago,

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market cap 25 billion at the
Epson premium would be 7.5

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billion.
So could you potentially extract

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cities exceeding 7.5 billion in
that case?

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And I've got a follow up.
Thank you.

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Yeah, that's a that's a tough
one, isn't it?

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The, the, the reality isn't I
have spent my career in a number

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of different industries and in
some industries you have a high,

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high percentage of, of, of
synergies.

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In some industries you have a
smaller percentage.

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My experience is that here in
mining, it's not often that you

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have, have a high percentage of
synergies I call compared to the

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to, to enterprise value.
And that's why it's quite

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difficult actually to pay high
premiums.

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There are exceptional cases, but
they have to be exceptional.

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So it does seem kind of obvious
when, when he says it like that,

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that the synergies should
outweigh the premium.

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Obviously there's the the kind
of caveat, if you're just

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getting an asset or a company or
whatever at an astoundingly

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cheap valuation, then you know,
you might not need the the

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synergies to make up for it.
But in the context of Rio Tinto

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and all these major miners,
they're often talking about

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copper and copper assets just
don't come cheap.

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You know, they're all got pretty
premium valuations on them.

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So I thought it was a pretty
interesting comment.

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I'm not sure if you guys had had
thoughts on M&A at the big end

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of town or in general there?
Yeah, they're big companies.

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So 30, you know, we've seen a
lot of the small cap gold is all

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going 50% bromium, but you won't
be saying that I don't think on

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this Rio Tinto sort of scale.
No, yeah, no.

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But it's, it's kind of an
interesting perspective, right,

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Because it's like the, the, the
implicit assumption in that

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statement is that you're, you're
paying for the market value of

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anything where it's trading at
any present time before you,

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like a lot of your, your bid is
the, the fair value.

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But of course that, you know, we
know there are dislocations from

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fair value from time to time and
they might present opportunities

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too.
But it's, you know, I think it's

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a, a sound heuristic to, to
navigate through it if you are,

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you know, ACEO or management to
kind of avoid kind of paying,

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paying up when it's unwarranted
and then having regret

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afterwards.
It's it's funny Speaking of that

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about the timing, like if you if
you anyone that buys a pays a

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premium for a copper asset.
Now I think we can nearly

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comfortably side right.
This is, you know, not counter

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cyclical, but it's part of a
it's not copper is not at the

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high.
Whereas you look back at, I

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think I've got the number right.
When the North Queensland asset

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that Paladin bought, that's in
the portfolio, when they bought

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it at the top of the uranium
boom, it was 1.2 billion for

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that asset.
Really.

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Yeah.
Like not even that's like before

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it all went to shit in.
I know it is Pukashima.

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Yeah.
So there, there's and there's

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your different sides of the
fence there of what people pay

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up for at the time.
Rios got a few, a few of them to

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their name as well.
Yeah.

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Being countercyclical, yeah.
Exactly.

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Being countercyclical in mining
is is almost everything.

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Yeah, on to the next one.
Glencore.

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Yeah, this is just an
interesting snippet from from

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Glencore CEO Gary Nagle.
He's talking about two different

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commodities here, cobalt and
copper, kind of side by side.

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Thought it was just worth taking
a listen.

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So any structure supplied
particularly out of the growth

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in supply from 10K and Kassamfu
in the DRC, but the demand side

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looks pleasing.
All three buckets of demand,

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aerospace and defence, EV and
you know, home, home user goods,

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all are looking very good.
So as that demand grows and the

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growth in supply starts to
steady up and it will steady up

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because cobalt is not like
nickel in Indonesia, where

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there's just new deposits being
developed and ready to bring to

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market anytime Cobalt does, you
know, it is, you know very well

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there's a byproduct out of DLC.
There's not too much growth

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beyond what's coming on now.
So we wait our time, we buy that

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time for demand and demand
supply to get back into balance.

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And wherever, whenever that
happens, we see a structural

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upside to to copper pricing.
And copper with the 3rd or the

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4th one that you mentioned, I
mean, everybody's British

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copper, everybody wants to get
into copper.

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We're really obviously very
large in copper with a million

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tonnes of copper production and
another up to 1,000,000 tonnes

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of growth, as you rightly say,
low capital intensity and mostly

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brownfield.
So that is that is certainly

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very exciting.
And in terms of demand for

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copper, we still see that as the
backbone for for decarbonisation

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going forward and particularly
the new industry.

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You know, people worried about
China, but one thing about

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China, copper demand remains
strong because the spending on

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grid is, is very strong.
Spending on AI, data centres,

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renewable infrastructure and the
likes is very copper hungry,

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very copy intensive and that
still has a long term, very

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bright future.
Yeah, I thought that was

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interesting.
Like like on the cobalt front,

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like thing called whenever they
talk about cobalt, I'm, I'm

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sorry, intrigued because, you
know, quite often what comes out

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is this, you know, intentional
strategy of, of curtailing their

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own selling of cobalt into the
market.

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While it's that sort of, you
know, depressed prices and they,

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they, they wait for yeah, kind
of a healthier environment

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before they start sort of
selling.

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And, and it's just, it's a
reminder that, yeah, not too

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many miners have the luxury of,
of doing that, of like kind of

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playing the waiting game with,
with the, with how they actually

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sell into the market.
You know, most, most miners kind

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of have an obligation to keep
selling to, to fuel their, their

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costs.
But Glencore, it's got a yeah, a

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much more like luxurious
position on that front.

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And then on copper, just kind of
some of that rhetoric about, you

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know, AI data centres being
being copper intensive, I found

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kind of interesting.
That's just the theme that's

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going to keep keep growing and
keep playing out.

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Is, is the growth of AI, AI.
Data centres are E VS 3 years

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ago.
Yeah, yeah.

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Yeah, it was fascinating in the
the economic outlook that BHB

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put forward.
They spoke about copper demand

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for AI, you know, end users and
data centres essentially being

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1% of copper demand currently
and projected to be, you know,

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circa 6% by 2050.
So that was an interesting pull

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through there.
They're saying it, obviously

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they're priming themselves as a
copper company and on the cobalt

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front and more in the context of
controlling or curtailing your

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supplies, as you put it.
It was very interesting.

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I was going to play a similar
snippet from Linus who are kind

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of talking about a similar kind
of thing, not wanting to flood

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the market.
It's an interesting dynamic from

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being at the other end, you
know, when you're a commodity

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producer and just have to sell
it, you need the money versus to

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sort of hold it back and just
not flood the market.

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Yeah.
It'll be interesting to see what

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that means for Marin, Marin for
Glencore, because obviously

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nickel in the toilet, it's a big
ladder, right deposit, but it's

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the biggest producer of cobalt
in Australia, that operation.

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So I'd be interested to see if
what that means, if that will

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ever get curtailed in this
environment or not.

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But it's fucking big thing to
Qatar, yeah.

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It's a it's it is big kind of
when you think of the operation

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and stuff, but it's a rounding
error for.

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Great.
Yeah.

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It's like it's like nickel W for
BHP.

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Effectively, it's fuck all.
All righty, on to the next one.

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So this one's really
interesting.

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On Sand Fire, the question comes
from Matt Chalmers at B of A and

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they're talking about Sandfires
net debt position.

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So they closed out FY24 at
roughly US $400 million in net

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debt.
That was a sort of beat on

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expectations, although there was
some CapEx that was moved from

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FY24 into the next year, the
year we're currently in.

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But a lot of, you know, kind of
bullish talk about them moving

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toward a net cash position and
dividends.

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So let's hear the question and
discussion.

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Just on the, you know the desire
to DE gear as much as possible

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before switching to dividends.
I mean, is there a is?

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That still the case in terms of
you'd like to fully, you know

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fully pay off the debt.
I mean, is there not some level

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of healthy level of gearing that
you'd like in the business in

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terms of the longer term cash
structure, you know, while still

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paying out of DIF?
Yeah.

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Look, great question and I don't
want to sound flippant, but it's

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not a conversation we've really
felt we need to explore deeply

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at this stage because it's clear
to me that the most important

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thing for us to do is to de gear
and move back towards net cash.

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I have a personal view that that
mining companies historically

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have underestimated the the
impact on your cost of capital.

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If you compound what is deep
operating encyclical price

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leverage with financial
leverage.

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I don't believe personally that
it is actually the way to

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optimise your capital structure.
But but again, we'll be

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obviously pragmatic and we'll
continue to consider the

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outlook.
The only other thing I'd say is

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one of the lessons in life for
me is, is always be very clear

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that you when contemplating
dividends, should be

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contemplating returning cash
that's on the balance sheet, not

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cash that's perspective or
you're hoping that you'll

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generate.
I really liked this this answer

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for a couple reasons.
So firstly, the the way and the

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experience that Brendan Harris
has around operating a mining

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company or that he's developed,
being an analyst and then

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working within BHP is really
interesting.

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And I, I guess I sort of see the
word from a pretty similar

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perspective.
You don't know when these shocks

224
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:49,840
are going to come and hit you.
Yeah.

225
00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,200
You know, you're kind of at the
whims of commodity markets,

226
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,720
being a commodity producer,
especially if you're not in the

227
00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,560
the first, the lowest cost
quartile.

228
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,680
So just building in resilience
to your business is super, super

229
00:11:02,680 --> 00:11:04,560
important.
And the second point on

230
00:11:04,560 --> 00:11:07,560
dividends is one we've sort of
echoed in the past as well.

231
00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,320
There's a lot, you know, that is
made of how companies go about

232
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,960
their dividends and the kind of
signalling that comes off it,

233
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,440
whether you you cut it.
And we end up seeing companies,

234
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,840
you know, drawing from debt to
pay dividends and all these

235
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,160
sorts of things.
So I very much like the concept

236
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,760
of paying it from cash that you
have on the balance sheet.

237
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,240
Yeah, yeah.
I think there's like there's a

238
00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,800
nuance to the question of like
get with miners and quite often

239
00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,080
it's the the companies that have
assets which are in the lowest

240
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,080
cost quartile that have greater
capacity to add leverage to the

241
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,600
balance sheet.
It just so happens that they

242
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,200
don't have a tremendous amount
of leverage on their balance

243
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:45,920
sheet.
Think of BHP Rio, you know,

244
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,720
those sort of big, big miners
with low, low cost assets that

245
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,440
have, because you have a, you
know, AQ1 cost asset, you

246
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,360
actually will last the cycle no
matter, no matter kind of what.

247
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,800
Because you know, that's good
that Costco has got to dip in

248
00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,760
all the way to your yours.
So they have more carrying

249
00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,440
capacity, but because they
generate heaps of cash, they've

250
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,040
just got the problem of too much
cash to deal with and they've

251
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:06,840
they've typically.
They've they've had it from that

252
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,920
decades ago of having to be
levered.

253
00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:10,800
What?
They're just set up there?

254
00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,200
Yeah, the way they sort of run
their their balance sheets right

255
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,640
now is something very much
ingrained in them from the

256
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,680
depths of 2015 sixteen and from
the overspending on acquisitions

257
00:12:19,680 --> 00:12:20,880
before that.
So, yeah.

258
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,960
So it was a hard lesson learnt.
The next one is from Meadows

259
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,960
Acquisition Corp and this one's
a bit lighter.

260
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,000
They're chatting about earnings
and working capital.

261
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,080
Obviously this is much more of a
topic when it comes to a copper

262
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,720
miner than a gold miner because
you actually need to get the

263
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,720
concentrate from your side out
to port and there's a bit of a

264
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,520
lag in once the stuff is shipped
and when you get paid for it.

265
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,640
So it's a discussion between
Mick McMullen, the boss there,

266
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,920
and Paul Hissey from Molas.
But you know, again, for the

267
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,600
half we produce, I don't know
what it was 9 1/2 thousand

268
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:54,520
times, you know, just under 20.
If I'm just a simple Bush math

269
00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:56,520
guy.
You know, I look at it on the

270
00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,240
basis, well, how much did we
produce?

271
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,920
Assume we sold it all, how much
money did we make on that?

272
00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,160
Then there's a working capital
line that goes below that.

273
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,240
But that's how I look at the
business, right?

274
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,120
If we, if you assume that we
sell whatever we produce and

275
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,280
there'll be some sort of working
capital adjustment somewhere in

276
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,280
there, it'll work its way
through the system is more than

277
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:14,760
I said.
I quite like this one.

278
00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:16,840
There was, there was a lot of
getting into the weeds about

279
00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,920
the, the inventories, the the
working capital and all these

280
00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,120
sorts of things.
So I like him just taking a step

281
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,960
back, keeping things nice and
simple and just, you know,

282
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,520
drawing a line.
Under it, that's a bloody

283
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,440
straight from the heart of Coba
because they're just, it's just

284
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,600
sort of started.
It's like once it like 2 years

285
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,120
down the road, it's all going to
fucking balance out.

286
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:42,600
But it's like everyone's just
really honing in on Mac at the

287
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,800
moment because it's like, right,
Are they making money yet?

288
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,040
They've just taken over.
It's all ramping up and all that

289
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,400
where it's like fucking look,
one or two years down the road

290
00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:52,760
and.
Just blowing, yeah.

291
00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,800
They're so at the whims.
If a shipment goes out on the

292
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,080
28th of a month versus the 3rd
of the month, and you know that

293
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,640
when the cash comes in, it can
distort because they're only

294
00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:02,200
doing a few of them, you know,
1/4.

295
00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:04,800
So it makes a big difference on
how the books actually look.

296
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,320
Bloody analysts make more than
harder.

297
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,160
Bloody just.
We're just blowing up rocks here

298
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:11,520
and and sell on it.
That's it.

299
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,640
All righty.
Next up we've got Linus.

300
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,200
So there was a couple of
interesting facets to this

301
00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,600
conversation.
First up, we're going to play a

302
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,920
snippet between Paul Young from
from Goldie's and Amanda Lacars.

303
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,960
So they're talking about
operating costs in the business

304
00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,280
and how Kalgoorlie might impact
this.

305
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,960
Obviously a lot of it's being
capitalised at the moment from

306
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:31,680
from Kalgoorlie, but there's
going to be a point in time

307
00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,000
where that flips to, you know,
being operating costs.

308
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,280
And then obviously that's going
to have a big impact on what the

309
00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,000
operating costs are because
there's going to be a need to

310
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,080
have a, a period where you're
fine tuning it and working on

311
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,520
those sorts of things.
So I found the particularly the

312
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:49,000
end of this snippet really
interesting where Paul, who had

313
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,880
essentially said the same thing
a couple times, made it very

314
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,640
clear that, Amanda, you need to
help the street understand what

315
00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,480
the the operating costs are.
And this is a company that

316
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,880
doesn't give guidance.
And there's a few bits going on,

317
00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:01,720
but let's play it.
Great.

318
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:02,040
Thanks.
Paul.

319
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,640
Just can I ask a quick follow up
Amanda, just on on cost again.

320
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,000
I mean as far as I know you've
been capitalising Cal, Cal

321
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:09,640
cracking and leaching costs.
I presume that we'll start

322
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,440
expensing those a little bit
over the next 12 months.

323
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,440
But just on the on the
uncontrollable costs and

324
00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,760
chemical imports have we do you
know if you've if you've unwound

325
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,800
the high cost inventories like
across all your chemical

326
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,360
products and we're back to, you
know, chemical imports being a

327
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:27,120
more normalised pricing.
Across the business, yes,

328
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,200
largely so.
OK, Yeah.

329
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,440
Great.
And you're right, Paul, Cal will

330
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,880
come in.
We're assessing at present with

331
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,640
the auditors what's the right
time for us to make that

332
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:45,040
transition from the capital to
the operating account.

333
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:47,800
Yeah, thanks, man.
I mean, just lastly, I know you

334
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,640
don't give production guidance
and therefore you don't give

335
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,520
cost guidance.
But again, I just think that the

336
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,840
street's too high on on cost.
By the way, is there anything

337
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,000
any way you can help?
The street would be, I think,

338
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,520
helpful.
Yeah, it was an interesting one.

339
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,920
What it wasn't even the most
kind of, well, the biggest take

340
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,560
away I had from that call there
was it was it was more just to

341
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,240
do with the the, you know, the
RARS market itself.

342
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:12,040
I mean, because it's such a kind
of nation opaque market who's

343
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,880
really keeping up to date with
the the latest rarest news.

344
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,680
You kind of normally just wait
till Linus reports and then

345
00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,480
you're kind of like, oh, that's
where the market is right now.

346
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,920
Yes, yeah.
Them and bloody MP.

347
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,040
Yeah.
Yeah, but there's, I'll say it's

348
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:25,840
climbed back up.
It was 43.

349
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,920
It's nearly up back to about 50
bucks a kilo.

350
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,760
That was yeah, that was, that
was the takeaway kind of from

351
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,400
from the call is this.
It looks like there's some green

352
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,240
shoots in that in that market,
which probably probably played

353
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,280
the snip itself from from
Amanda.

354
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:44,360
You never set a path and then
bullishly go down that path no

355
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,240
matter what else happens around
us.

356
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,360
So of course we will accommodate
what happens with the market.

357
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,440
As I said though, I think that
we've got some signposts at

358
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,320
present that give us a bit more
confidence coming into this

359
00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:01,640
financial year.
And not just the, you know, sort

360
00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,920
of firming of the price over the
last month or so, but the new

361
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,720
Chinese quotas which were
released last week certainly

362
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:16,079
give us more confidence that
there's a a drive also within

363
00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:19,880
China to really improve value in
the market.

364
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:25,760
And we are seeing an improvement
in demand and a reduction in

365
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,480
inventories at the same time.
Yeah, really interesting to see

366
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:30,960
how how they're talking about
it.

367
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,480
Obviously, like you say, Travis,
it's quite a complex market and

368
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,800
for for people to understand
that these sort of quotas the

369
00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,200
the Chinese kind of use these
given they have a monopoly on

370
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,880
rare earths to control the
market and there's been a real

371
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:43,440
glut of rare earths at the
moment.

372
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,520
That's why they're talking about
a lot of inventories across the

373
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,440
across the the chain there.
So the Chinese would dish these

374
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,440
out for for mining, for smelting
and for separation.

375
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:57,000
And it gives people a bit of a
guide on what supply could look

376
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,880
like in the market.
So they're quite an important

377
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,000
detail to look at.
Yeah.

378
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,840
I mean the interesting thing was
the mention of of of quotas and

379
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,640
like the Chinese have used these
kind of quotas from from time to

380
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,280
time.
But just, you know, hearing that

381
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:10,280
their policies actually changed
in relation to the quotas was

382
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,680
kind of interesting because that
obviously has a kind of massive

383
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,520
impact on the on the supply
demand.

384
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,240
I mean that makes.
All right, Next up, we've got

385
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,400
implants slash Zimplats, so
we're going to Africa.

386
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,280
Mate, on the topic of niche
commodities with very few

387
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:27,080
producers, especially on Isaacs,
yeah, I want to talk about the

388
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,200
PGM market and I'll listen to
the Impala Platinum call or

389
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,960
implants.
Not really because I have a lot

390
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,160
of interest in a minor listed on
the Johannesburg Stock Exchange,

391
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,680
but because I kind of wanted to
get a bit of insight on ASX

392
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,040
listed Zimplats.
And if you, if you don't know,

393
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,800
one of the segments of Implants
or Impala Platinum is their

394
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,040
operating mines in Zimbabwe,
which they call that segment

395
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,360
Zimplats.
And the majority of the rest of

396
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,120
Implants is located in South
Africa or the mines in South

397
00:18:57,120 --> 00:18:58,160
Africa.
They've got something in Canada

398
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,240
too.
But for simplicity and Zimplats

399
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:06,560
is is 87% owned by Implants.
The remaining 13 percent is

400
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,960
effectively quoted on on the ASX
under Tikka ZIM.

401
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:16,240
But because Impala have control
of, you know, to have have

402
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,520
control of Zimplats, the only
announcements you really, really

403
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,040
roll through on the ASX are kind
of earnings results the same day

404
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,400
that that implants report.
So here's what you know Implant

405
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,880
CEO Nico Muller had to say when
asked about Zimplats.

406
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,120
As far as our investment
appetite or invest investment

407
00:19:33,120 --> 00:19:37,480
posture is concerned in in
Zimplats, we've been present in

408
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,240
the in Zimbabwe since 2000 or
just after after 2000.

409
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,440
So it's next is after 20 years.
It's always deemed a high risk

410
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,760
jurisdiction.
For us it has been an

411
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:49,720
exceptionally positive
experience.

412
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,000
We understand there have been
policy changes that happen from

413
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,960
time to time.
We frequently engage through

414
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,760
Zimplets with the government.
We we are aligned with them.

415
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,640
On top of that they have the
remaining world class assets.

416
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:08,160
Shallow, the great dyke is
associated with mechanisable

417
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:13,040
warden shallow assets.
So in my mind, if I if I look at

418
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,520
the globe's PGM opportunities.
I mean that has to be the most,

419
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,120
the most attractive.
So I would, I would, I would

420
00:20:20,120 --> 00:20:22,120
suggest that if there's going to
be any new, new developments in

421
00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:25,520
future in PGMS, if you're going
to rebalance the the assets of

422
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,080
the industry, I am predicting a
higher probability of us having

423
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:33,880
new production emanate from Zim.
We are not planning any new

424
00:20:34,360 --> 00:20:38,120
growth in, in Zimbabwe.
We will do everything we can to

425
00:20:38,120 --> 00:20:42,080
extend the lives of Mimosa and,
and and also is not happening

426
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,240
and, and some plats when the
the, the new portal studies are

427
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,440
on those.
So our current position is to

428
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,240
maintain life.
We've got 50% of the group's

429
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,720
reserves in in Zimbabwe.
And so we see long life, but we

430
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,160
do have the the processing
capacity, which historically was

431
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,960
a constraint.
So now we've got the the most

432
00:20:59,960 --> 00:21:03,080
new unit I can talk to the to
the exact excess capacity, but

433
00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:06,360
at least we've got the ability
to consider treating mimosas

434
00:21:06,360 --> 00:21:11,400
material or part of the material
in, in at someplace or

435
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,480
potentially any new new
production that might emanate in

436
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,040
that country.
So don't take my comments as us

437
00:21:17,120 --> 00:21:19,320
having an investment option on
the table that we are going to

438
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,040
announce the market.
It's more a long range strategic

439
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:26,600
direction comment that I might.
I mean, yeah, kind of a few, few

440
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:27,720
interesting kind of takeaways
there.

441
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,160
One was, you know, the just, you
know, speaking really highly of

442
00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:35,000
operating in Zimbabwe that they
have the remaining world class

443
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,360
assets and and that, you know,
you anticipate some new

444
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:41,040
production MM AM and A from from
Zim.

445
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,160
So yeah, I just like in an
Impala, they've been embarking

446
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,080
on some hefty CapEx in Zimbabwe
US 325 million to bring the

447
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,640
party online.
They're doing expansion at at

448
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:56,720
Bima mine Chucky like nearly all
about US $500 million in CapEx

449
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,840
and smelter expansion there.
As you were sort of talking

450
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,600
about that refining capacity
that that used to be a

451
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,160
constraint.
And if you kind of just look at

452
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,280
Impala's segment contributions,
like Zimplat's operating

453
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:08,960
performance was, was, you know,
a really, really solid

454
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,240
contributor there too.
So you just want to keep an eye

455
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,840
on kind of as, as whatever
evolves with that PGM market is

456
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,600
like that's kind of the yeah,
the the company I kind of keep

457
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,080
watching.
Yeah, Yeah.

458
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,080
That's really interesting.
So is that is that time as when

459
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:25,280
you said the the what's listed
on the IS 6.

460
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,520
Is that the free float not
including Zimplatz?

461
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:28,840
Exactly.
So it's exactly.

462
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:30,760
It's just that.
It's just 13%, yeah.

463
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:36,280
And and of that 13%, like coal,
like 8% of it doesn't even like,

464
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,000
doesn't even trade hands.
It's kind of just, you know, old

465
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,120
school founders that have just
held it forever.

466
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,720
So there's not not much that
actually does trade very often.

467
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,720
But yeah.
Ruddy when?

468
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,680
When do you think the PGM things
come into fruition?

469
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,920
I was just going to say I saw
some interesting, I saw some

470
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,120
interesting comments on the on
the weekend from Northern

471
00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:59,680
Platinum CEO Paul Dunn saying
the South African platinum

472
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,920
mining industry had entered in
irreversible decline with low

473
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,400
prices and demand suffering from
from EVs and all these sorts of

474
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,920
things.
Who knows what the, the journey

475
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,160
to that end point kind of is.
There could be real, real sort

476
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,400
of spikes in between.
But yeah, I mean, I think we've

477
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,120
just seen more of the same that
we were talking about a few

478
00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,120
months ago, just just cuts and
stuff and push backs of CapEx.

479
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,760
So it's, it's been still
gruesome, you know?

480
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:25,880
Yeah, I think, I think we need
we need probably need a bit of

481
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,280
an haven't revisited probably a
lot since we talked to Matt

482
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:33,280
Fernley about just where the
whole thematic is around plug in

483
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,840
hybrids and and all all that
sort of world we've got.

484
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,840
We've been or we're being
talking about other shit.

485
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,160
Yeah, and.
It, you know, with all this

486
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,400
discussion about a sort of
global recession and all these

487
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,560
things that just, you know, wax
car demand, yeah, wax, you know,

488
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,720
whether it's E VS or hybrids or
IC as they, they just get hit

489
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,800
when the world sort of rolls
over a bit.

490
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,560
So that's been much more front
and centre I think for a lot of

491
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,160
investors in in the past couple
of months.

492
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,440
Yeah, yeah, right.
Our next stop the bloody the

493
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,120
Aussie powerhouse Fortescue.
Fortescue I thought we had to

494
00:24:05,120 --> 00:24:07,680
get one in on the iron ore
market because I'm, I'm really

495
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,880
fascinated about it.
And I think you could almost,

496
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,720
you know, make a pretty strong
argument that the, the outcome

497
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,240
of what happens in in iron ore
is more important than every

498
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,720
other commodity we talk about
put together for WA.

499
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,880
And, you know, with that, I was
very keen to hear what they had

500
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,160
to say about the, the sort of
broader market.

501
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,120
I was interested to get a bit of
info on iron bridge, but they

502
00:24:29,120 --> 00:24:31,640
sort of battered off most of
those questions or kind of

503
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,040
talked around them.
So here was a question from

504
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,880
Glenn Lawcock from from Baron
Joey, just asking for sort of

505
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,280
general mood in and around the,
the iron ore market and what FMG

506
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,000
had been seeing.
So this is what Dino Otranto,

507
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,720
the CEO of FMG, had to say.
Obviously the the, the near

508
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,480
market, we've seen some
uncertainty with demand and

509
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,720
stronger supply coming on.
We've seen a a most recent price

510
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,120
uptick.
We've seen some tonnes already

511
00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:03,400
starting to come out of the
market predominantly from India.

512
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,880
So our our view is, yes, the
market is going through a

513
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:13,880
transformation very encouraged
though by diversification and

514
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,920
the robustness of the Chinese
market.

515
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:16,960
So.
I thought it was particularly

516
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,240
interesting to hear the comments
on India since, you know, diving

517
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,960
into what BHB had to say about
it and they kind of put those

518
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,280
higher cost producers in three
different tiers, one of them of

519
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,280
course being India.
For Fortescue to then come out

520
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,880
and say that they'd seen
production already start to come

521
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,640
offline in India gives a bit of
an indication of the pull back

522
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,080
in price is starting to eat into
the cost curve, the higher ends

523
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,200
of the cost curve a little bit.
So that's the space we

524
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,120
definitely need to to watch out
for.

525
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,880
Yeah, a lot of bloody, oh,
always continuous chatter with

526
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,760
Fortescue around bloody green
energy and renewables and

527
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,200
everything.
The new green logo, but bloody,

528
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,160
it's just, there's just one word
missing and it's Silverstone.

529
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,600
I just didn't.
I can't believe I didn't hear.

530
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,040
It yeah, I was commanding in the
the the reports there.

531
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,520
I didn't find it mate.
One goes with the other and it

532
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,640
gets a more bloody Silverstone
in your life.

533
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,800
FMG.
They'll be greener than Shrek if

534
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,880
they do Bloody oh you.
Think they look at their their

535
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,680
sort of peers up there in the
Pilbara and they see what

536
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,800
Silverstone has done, you know,
for the everything from, you

537
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,680
know, the, the, the trucks, the
buses gone around the.

538
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,680
Both the Polaris.
There's been some historical

539
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,160
Silverstone in FMG, the TV Hilux
Polaris buggies.

540
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,880
I just think they need to up the
amount of Silverstone.

541
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,640
Like if it's good enough for
everyone else to be sure enough.

542
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,400
Good enough for bloody FMG.
You'd think so.

543
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,200
They're they're set on this
20-30.

544
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:37,920
It needs to happen, and it's not
gonna happen without

545
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,160
Silverstone.
Yeah, yeah.

546
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:41,960
That's awesome.
Anyway, just hand it to him on a

547
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,640
platter once again, right next
one, Ramili.

548
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,160
One more comment on just that.
Did I see a headline that Twiggy

549
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:53,320
reckons that the the floor in
iron ore is is 80 bucks a tonne?

550
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,440
I think I saw a headline about
that.

551
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:55,960
Did you hear that?
He did make comments.

552
00:26:55,960 --> 00:27:00,000
He there was a little video that
sort of went went with that as

553
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,520
he was up in in the Pilgrim, but
there's no that's not too.

554
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,360
Floor.
Does the floor mean we don't

555
00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:08,920
want it to go below that?
Very much so he.

556
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,120
Probably pays a bunch of money
to some in house economists or

557
00:27:12,120 --> 00:27:12,720
something.
Yeah, yeah.

558
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,800
But anyways, sort of similar
comments from and the big

559
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,440
Australian BHP as well, so.
I still got his plus 1 billion

560
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,160
divvy this year, the Twigster
and Nicholas so you'll have.

561
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,840
To live off that.
Mate, just still putting food on

562
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:25,440
the table.
That's it.

563
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,000
It's all good, right Remelius?
Next one.

564
00:27:28,120 --> 00:27:30,040
Yeah, this is just a a quick
one.

565
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:34,160
Just on the on the deck, just
put out this one slide on slide

566
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,480
12 of their deck.
It just shows their their margin

567
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,880
per oz.
And like they define margin as

568
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,240
as basically what the realised
gold price was in that year,

569
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,960
less the all the sustaining
costs and the sort of chart

570
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,480
since 2016 here.
And I think it's just it's just

571
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,480
kind of amazing to look at that
chart and just see that giant

572
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,960
margin expansion in in 2024 kick
in.

573
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,920
And I mean, we we know what we
all know why it's the grade of

574
00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:02,040
penny is just king.
I'm sure they got.

575
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,360
And the processing only of.
That's where it's comes from.

576
00:28:06,360 --> 00:28:10,920
Contributor as well.
Yeah, it's either way.

577
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:12,760
It's fucking unbelievable.
Oh, it's yeah.

578
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,720
It's a chart.
You don't often see gold miners,

579
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:15,960
but yeah.
Let's see how long they can

580
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,640
maintain that one.
Gee, gold miners making money,

581
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,160
free cash.
You know, you know, you know

582
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,520
what's funny, it's like when you
you see like consecutive years

583
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,920
like chart deck of what you
know, financial results decks in

584
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,240
a row in the moment.
Like the deck looks pretty

585
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,160
similar to last year, except 1
slide's different or they've

586
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,920
removed the chart somewhere.
You know, it's because the chart

587
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:41,720
trend doesn't continue anymore.
Obviously from Johnny Max's

588
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,560
previous comment when he was on
the show about how Perseus and

589
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,840
Silver Lake were the only two
miners that were have made more

590
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,840
money than they've invested in
their journey.

591
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,440
I wonder if Remilius has ticked
over now, but I think.

592
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,440
I've done a lot of a lot of M&A.
So I.

593
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,800
Wonder a lot of I think with
Musgrave and the Spartan

594
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,480
investment as well, yeah, I
don't know if you count the

595
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,040
Spartan investments going up so.
I mean Penny.

596
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,920
Penny's a good example there
were they're making a good bit

597
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,800
of money of it, but it doesn't
have the longest life and they

598
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,000
did spend a couple 100 million
on it a few years back as well.

599
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,760
So it'd be interesting to see.
Yes, right.

600
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,680
Another stock that is part of
the alley JCETF and the from the

601
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,200
midcap one Genesis.
I mean, they just keep popping

602
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,600
up these.
She keeps getting comments of it

603
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,360
like she's a Ding, Ding, Ding on
every stock.

604
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,240
And so today she's like I'm
cleaning out the trash of My

605
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,440
Portfolio.
That's not an insight on

606
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,320
Genesis, Yeah.
She's not cleaning out Genesis.

607
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,040
Oh, we don't know.
So now it's coming out just it

608
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,560
was aftermarket open.
Yeah, yeah.

609
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,800
So they're very Genesis.
They're bringing forth the

610
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,240
restart of the Laverton mill to
October 2024.

611
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,280
So that's when the commissioning
is going to start with the

612
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,640
existing stockpiles and guarding
first gold production December

613
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,040
this year.
So as I said, I think it was

614
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:05,600
forecasted previously late FY25
South and they've also said

615
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,280
they've commenced mining at the
hub open pit.

616
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,520
So that's part of that Red Cliff
project sort of in the middle

617
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:18,400
ish of Leonora and live and so
have increased there for FY25

618
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:24,560
guidance to up to 200,000 oz
from previously 175,000 oz all

619
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,680
in sustaining cost projected to
drop 50 bucks to 2300 an ounce.

620
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,000
So still on, you know, higher
end of where most of them are

621
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:37,560
sitting, but and it says they're
bringing forward 25 mil of

622
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,880
growth capital.
So 10 mil, 10 bucks for the

623
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:44,320
labour to mill, 5 bucks for the
hub open pit and 10 million for

624
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,040
Ulysses underground mining ahead
of schedule.

625
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,720
So but they weren't they were
forecasting labour to mill

626
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,080
restart late FY25.
So I thought I would have

627
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,400
thought the growth capital for
that restart would have already

628
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,240
been included in the FY25
guidance.

629
00:30:58,240 --> 00:30:59,680
Not so I'm not sure about that
one.

630
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,360
So you're saying you're
interpreting it as coming from

631
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,400
FY20 6 CapEx into FY25?
Yeah, they said they were

632
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,680
restarting it.
They were guarding to restart

633
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,560
anyway.
So yeah, buddy.

634
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,880
But then what you'll see growth
capital makes sense if it's if

635
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,360
it's being developed ahead of
schedule, it means more growth

636
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:24,240
capital to go deeper.
So but they fucking scrolling

637
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,800
in, sorry not but not too much
context yet on what will be

638
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,840
filling the Laverton mill when
it is very started.

639
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,920
So it looks looks like they got
plenty of options but not too

640
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,880
sure which dirt is going where.
You can sort of infer it, but

641
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,840
it's more based on the fact that
that Laverton mill in its last

642
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,080
form was a 2.9 million tonne per
annum mill.

643
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,680
So it's pretty bloody big.
You know, Ulysses is ahead of

644
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,440
schedule.
I can't, you can't really see

645
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,480
that dirt gone up to Leonora,
then over to Laverdon.

646
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,960
Hub hub's a bit of a snatch and
grab jobby.

647
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,840
So for at the moment I think
there's underground potential

648
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,840
there and stuff, but 1.7 million
tonne in reserves at 3.1

649
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,280
grammes, so bloody high grade
for a pit.

650
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,840
So you assume that dirt will be
going to Laverdon looking at

651
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,560
bloody good old Google Maps, not
100% sure on the roads, but

652
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,320
looks like about 100K trek to
get it to there.

653
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:24,760
And then they've also got 3.2
million tonne at .4 grammes in

654
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:29,840
stockpiles at the Lavenham
project site, which is inferred.

655
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:34,560
So not confidence on the grade,
but so and it looks like they

656
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,320
were using some of that for
commissioning of the plant.

657
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,800
So they could if you add them
two together they could.

658
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,360
They could chew up the
stockpiles, blend it with the

659
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:50,600
hub dirt and get around 1.3
grammes per tonne head grade.

660
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,400
What sort of rate do you think
they go through that that 1.7

661
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,400
million?
Well, it looked on the on the

662
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,720
chart here.
It looked like it was coming out

663
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,080
in one year.
All in one year.

664
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,880
Yeah, bother.
It looks like that.

665
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,960
See that chart, the third, the
last snapshot you've got of the

666
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:11,200
the growth in Lavenden?
Yeah, looks like hub comes in,

667
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,760
doesn't come in to FY20 7.
That was their pre previously.

668
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,720
That was OK.
That's what I followed.

669
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,960
That's what they're bringing.
They're bringing for because

670
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,720
they were gotcha bloody charts.
Because there's, there's kind of

671
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,880
question marks whether that,
that Tower Hill that they showed

672
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,440
there FY20 nine, yeah, go on
there as well.

673
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,040
Who who?
Who knows?

674
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,800
Yeah.
So it's like, I'm not not sure.

675
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,880
Like I think they've it said
they're doing studies for

676
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,720
underground at, at hub and
everything.

677
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:42,880
So they're yeah.
So it combined the reserves,

678
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:49,200
they've got maybe 1.3 grammes, 1
3/4 years worth of dirt for that

679
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:53,240
Laverton mill 2.9.
So taking them that just that

680
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:59,320
could take them into FY20 6 end
of FY20 6 forecasting Jupiter

681
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:03,520
and Bruno Lewis to come online
in FY20 6 as well combine them

682
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,840
in reserves.
There's 12 million tonne at one

683
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:11,199
gramme for those two.
So you can see that mount

684
00:34:11,199 --> 00:34:14,679
Morgan's mill, the Lavenham mill
potentially being just that high

685
00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:17,600
grade, high tonne, low grade
operation.

686
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,360
So it looks like you Add all
that together, it's like right,

687
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:24,440
that could work without having
to bloody buy all the shit

688
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,880
depending on Bruno Lewis and
Jupiter coming online.

689
00:34:28,159 --> 00:34:32,480
Because I still even though
they're in that deck saying that

690
00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:37,480
Tower Hill FY20 829 going to
Laverton, which is right next to

691
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,199
Leonora.
I just I still believe something

692
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:46,120
will happen with vault not read
for vault before then.

693
00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:50,840
So it'll be definitely gone to
King of the Hill to be

694
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,560
processed.
That's a gold medal or expanded

695
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,800
or an expanded Leonora Mill,
which they have talked about.

696
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:01,720
That'd be the silver medal, but
I'll just cannot say that ever

697
00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:04,200
go down that far.
Interesting to see the the

698
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,400
market reaction down sort of 5%
on on the news today.

699
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:08,600
What did you sort of read into
that many?

700
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:12,200
Yeah, I'm not well pulling for
gross cat like if you're pulling

701
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:18,280
for 25 bucks of gross capital,
maybe that's that's why all the

702
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,000
Goldies at the end today are
some, some more than others.

703
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,640
So it might be just a market, a
market thing.

704
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,040
It'd be interesting to see once
they, you know, wrap a bit more

705
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,000
meat on it and we see where,
where the tonnes are going to

706
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,240
come from and stuff how the how
the market sort of fares on it.

707
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:31,840
Yeah, they did.
I think in the last text they

708
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,920
did say unless this is it, they
did.

709
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,480
They did say like, you know,
updated Gardens was coming out

710
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,880
in September.
So this is probably it, but

711
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:44,280
probably still chasing some
colour on exactly what that plan

712
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:48,160
is for Laverdon because it has
sort of as said hub was, it was

713
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,960
initially forecasted Jupiter and
Bruno Lewis were going to be the

714
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,800
first sources of feed for
Laverdon.

715
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,120
With the stockpiles.
Yeah, with the stockpiles but

716
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,360
near hubs being sort of brought
forward.

717
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,960
So probably I'll be interested
to see what the what the

718
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,160
detailed plan of attack is.
But hey, why, why tell everyone?

719
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,560
Keep it up your sleeve, hey?
Maddie, those those like, you

720
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,280
know, sources of oil you just
described that you're going to

721
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,920
go into Laverdon.
I mean they were all in the

722
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,480
portfolio of Daisian.
So this is this is just kind of

723
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,120
Daisian reinvigorated is what
we're going to see Mount

724
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,080
Morgan's at least in the early
stage.

725
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,000
There's there's not like any of
Genesis or any deals that

726
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:25,600
they've done where there looks
like they're going to be

727
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:29,520
diverting all there the maybe.
Maybe the kit that it was a card

728
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,240
in here, the not card in here?
Yeah, I know the assets.

729
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,560
Ray Rayside and the ones they
got out of kin.

730
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,720
Yeah, potentially they talk to
them, yeah, maybe they're a bit

731
00:36:41,720 --> 00:36:43,480
early stage from just a
permitting front and all that

732
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,240
sort of stuff.
But it I mean, 11 benefit is

733
00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:50,800
like you said Hub was it was too
early stage to to send hub into

734
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:52,680
to Daisy and yet.
But like you said, it's kind of

735
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:54,720
a bit of a stench and grab and
kind of, you know, goes

736
00:36:54,720 --> 00:36:57,520
relatively quickly.
So, yeah, I think they're that

737
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,560
maybe the market's a little bit
uncertain about the the long

738
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,040
term of Labourton kind of after
after hub as well and stuff.

739
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,320
Like that, yeah, possibly.
And whether they're yeah, who

740
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:10,600
who knows Well, and I think it's
the whole as I said, 11 deal

741
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:15,880
with like a deal with Vault
changes everything totally.

742
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,920
But they've got, they've
obviously got the options to not

743
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,400
do a deal because they've got
base cases that do work with

744
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:26,840
Laverton and and Leonora.
But ideally you want Tower, you

745
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,280
want to be sending Tower Hill
and everything to a friggin 56

746
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,360
million tonne per annum mil Just
jammer through together.

747
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,760
Lowest cost operation.
Did you say they there was like

748
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:41,320
a data room article last week at
some point and it was about kind

749
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,240
of yeah, Gold Sect M&A and it
was, I think it was about

750
00:37:44,240 --> 00:37:47,520
magnetic resources and it was,
it's understood that you know,

751
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,920
Genesis is not interested in M&A
at this point in time.

752
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,600
It was kind of like the comment
there, but.

753
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:54,720
You wouldn't think that, you
wouldn't think that from the

754
00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,360
Diggers presale of magnetic.
Oh yeah, that's funny.

755
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,360
Yeah.
I continue to think Genesis will

756
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,320
always be a company in the
picture of M&A.

757
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,000
Like they just, yeah, it's just
the way they they are.

758
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,320
Like even if, yeah, yeah, I'd
always just kind of take their M

759
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,080
and a appetite with a grain of
salt just because you never, you

760
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,840
never, never.
They just, they'll probably just

761
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,440
do a deal and no one will expect
it.

762
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,800
And stuff like that too, yeah.
It sort of comes out, you know,

763
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,480
like the right time for these
things because this is sort of

764
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,840
real synergy type MNA, potential
synergy type MNA that we're

765
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,160
talking about.
Something sort of comes for sale

766
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,360
or is there, you know, you might
just have to have to go for it

767
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,280
rather than say it going to
someone else's hands.

768
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,800
They I think Vault coming off
what took 12% last week when we

769
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,680
last spoke about him that had
sure that's bloody prick their

770
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,160
ears up a bit bloody Chuck, do
you think on the time.

771
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:42,880
It still sounds weird you call
it a vault.

772
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,840
And I we're going to, we're
going to get used to it Vault

773
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,960
just with the the V.
It's like like some some like

774
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,640
renames you get around straight
away, but like, I still call it

775
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,080
Twitter, Twitter, you know?
Yeah.

776
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,960
How long did it take to get
Spartan gas coin to Spartan

777
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,520
like?
We that was pretty quick.

778
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:01,880
That was pretty quick, yeah.
Most people were pretty keen to

779
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,600
forget gas coin.
What other ones have we had in

780
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,960
the?
Delta lithium used to be.

781
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,360
Delta.
Hoover House.

782
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:11,840
For a moment there wasn't to be,
though.

783
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,800
That didn't tell you off?
I'm sure there's been a few on

784
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:15,680
the journey.
Fucker.

785
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,600
Where'd they go in a while
Anyway?

786
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,640
If they bring them forward this
this live and race start, good

787
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,840
on them.
But I just bloody hope they're

788
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:28,080
taking up CR ES offer for a free
review of the existing insurance

789
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,480
problem policies.
No downside to it in place, but

790
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,480
you don't need to bring forward
any CapEx guidance, growth

791
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,000
capital because it's bloody
free.

792
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,200
It a free a free review.
A free review of the insurance

793
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:39,040
policies.
Wow.

794
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,440
So I'm sure it's insured at the
moment.

795
00:39:41,720 --> 00:39:45,000
Bloody Genesis are minors.
There's no point of mine at

796
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,120
being an insurance expert.
You why waste your time?

797
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,600
Focus on the mining.
Get CRE to look at it for free.

798
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,840
What a bargain.
It's not even a bargain.

799
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,560
A bargain means you're getting
something cheaper, but you're

800
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,120
paying something.
But it's it's, it's free.

801
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,800
Mate, how much would the gold is
whacked by those those weather

802
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,920
events?
Over January, February, March

803
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:06,640
that you just had that in your
policy.

804
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,080
Yep, you could have a glaring
hole that you don't even know

805
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,720
about and they'll point it out
for free.

806
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,920
Exactly, I wouldn't even say
they're the we're not talking

807
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,560
medals before CRE.
They're not even the gold medal.

808
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,680
Odd.
Class them as the Michael Klim

809
00:40:19,720 --> 00:40:23,880
world record of CRE insurance.
Specifically this.

810
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:28,480
Check that time 4818 Michael
Klim has.

811
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:35,240
Just broken the world record.
Bit of Australian nostalgia,

812
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,320
well I love.
It good work Maddie.

813
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,600
One last one from from me.
Just a few a bit of feedback on

814
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,480
our our min res episode last
week.

815
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,280
But you wouldn't believe it.
Ding Ding Ding from Ali JC Love.

816
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,120
It a few people have pointed out
that I've I've got some exchange

817
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,440
rates wrong.
I just and I've made a

818
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,480
fundamental error in my analysis
that I assumed the annual report

819
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,880
was in U.S. dollars, like like
most miners, but that means his

820
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,920
his Aussie dollars being an
Aussie dominant producer.

821
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,520
So that led to a few errors in
my analysis, which I hope to

822
00:41:07,720 --> 00:41:10,640
cover in a in a future episode
this week with with a min bull.

823
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,480
Hopefully that happens, I think
so that'll be a good one

824
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,520
territory.
That'll be that'll be a good

825
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,240
one.
So just disregard that right in

826
00:41:16,240 --> 00:41:19,480
the middle.
Disregard the analysis in in

827
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,120
lieu of a future episode this
week, we hope.

828
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:22,280
Very good.
Good.

829
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,920
Tough guys.
Oh, I tell you, I'll never

830
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:26,760
disregard an axis, mine and
technology.

831
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,800
Never, never.
Who else would you not?

832
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:35,600
I would not disregard MMS verify
idea.

833
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,560
Idea, idea all to be said about.
There's more to be said about

834
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,000
idea.
Who is idea.

835
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:45,120
I'll tell you soon.
D soy underground bloody Oh,

836
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:49,240
never do never disregard that
bloody Silverstein, CRE

837
00:41:49,240 --> 00:41:52,040
insurance, Greenland equipment,
K drill.

838
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,600
And don't disregard a Spark
chart because it's correct.

839
00:41:55,720 --> 00:41:59,240
Who do you guys?
Information contained in this

840
00:41:59,240 --> 00:42:01,960
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

841
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,600
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

842
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:06,520
or needs of any particular
person.

843
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:10,000
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

844
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,080
with your financial adviser and
consider how appropriate the

845
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,760
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.