30 Fundies Share Their Best Picks for 2026 (Part 1)

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Travis Ricciardo We've got one
of my favorite episodes of the

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year coming up, don't we?
30 fund managers, 2026

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predictions.
They're talking about what is

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their highest conviction
prediction, their most non

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consensus prediction, the best
performing commodity and the

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worst performing commodity.
All 30 fund managers get the

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exact same set of four
questions.

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They rapid fire answer them.
We break it up into two separate

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episodes.
This is part one of two.

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And mate, there's like 30 new
ideas in my head of what I

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should research and potentially
buy as a result of these.

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Dense conversations, right?
I'm super excited.

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We're talking about obviously
commodities, but also companies,

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exchange rates and currencies
get a mention.

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We're talking about Australia,
we're talking about overseas,

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we're talking about geopolitics,
so.

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These fund managers new and old
as well.

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They are heaps of ideas coming
out the back of this one, so we

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hope the money miners enjoy it
as much as we did, right?

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Totally.
And Speaking of enjoying stuff,

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I'm enjoying, looking forward to
our Christmas drinks coming up

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next week.
So this will be Tuesday the 16th

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of December at BrewDog Perth.
So that's on Gordon St. there.

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Come along, it starts from 5:00
PM and we'll just talk about

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mining stocks all night.
Click the link in the show notes

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to RSVP.
Come along, we're looking

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forward to it mate.
Shall we RIP in?

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Let's do it.
Hey, Rick, how you going?

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Yeah, well, thanks guys
yourself.

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Going very well.
Excited to hear your predictions

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for the up and coming year.
We, we're, yeah, we're, we're

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stoked mate.
You, you did pretty well tipping

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last year.
So we're, we hope you can back

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it up again this year with some
great predictions to kick us off

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with.
Mate.

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What is your your highest
conviction prediction for for

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the year?
The top one is new merchants and

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gold.
Yeah, our, our really like Alex

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Passmore, what he's doing.
They've got reserves of about

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140,000 oz at at 4.8.
And it's a lot of it's, you

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know, that's sitting in a, a
nice open cut pit.

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And, and So what they've got is
a toll trading or an all

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purchase agreement with West
Gold.

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And so the really interesting
thing is it's got a, a minimum

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and a maximum of 30,000 tonnes
and with a cap at at 50.

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But last month they they sold I
think it was just over 60, 7000

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tons, so well above the 50,000
ton cap and that that was at

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about 3.69 grams I think it was.
So it's a little bit hard to to

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forecast what, what they're
going to do because of that

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minimum and maximum cap.
But you know, at the top end of

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that, you know, they could be
generating, you know, huge

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amount of cash at, at the right
time.

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And so, you know, I think it's
pretty exciting.

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In fact, they have one broker,
you know, suggesting that it

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could be somewhere near 200 mil
of cash by mid next year.

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And that's a, a company with a
market cap around about 4:50.

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So, you know, I think that's a a
pretty exciting and one that's

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sitting under the radar.
I'm really bite my lip not to

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ask more questions, but we'll
keep it succinct.

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Rick, what is your most non
consensus view for the upcoming

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year?
Yeah, the most non consensus 1

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is that Darren Stralo will be
more popular with investors than

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Rally Finlayson, Bill Beemon and
Mark Clark combined.

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Wow, OK.
I'll, I'll love that.

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Yeah, that's great.
Yeah.

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Yeah.
So I think, you know,

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Bellevue's, you know, it's a
turn around story.

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They certainly had a challenging
start start to or challenge the

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end of last year and start to
this year.

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But you know, they've changed
the mine plan.

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They've they're mining in
different parts.

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They're going to really open up.
Deacon Maine Deacon N Tribune

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getting, you know, much better
higher grade oil come through

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and you know, it is a high grade
mine.

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It is it is risky.
There are challenges with that.

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But if he if he delivers, it
could be the turn around story

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of 2026.
So maybe I've gone over the ski

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tips on my combined suggestion
there with the the three greats.

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But I, I think he, he's got
potential to, to, to really

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excel.
Brilliant Rick.

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What about the the best
performing commodity for 26?

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Probably I, I really like gold,
but I'm going to sort of head of

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a nuance on that in, in terms
of, you know, I really like the,

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the, the gold developers and
the, the, the, the advanced

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explorers.
So, so we've seen that the gold

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producers do really well in the
last last couple of years, but I

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think that the, the market is
now transitioning where those

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guys will, will, you know,
continue to go well if the gold

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price goes up, But the real
growth will come from those

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developers and explorers.
So companies like Golden Horse,

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I think it's a real stand out in
terms of, you know, quality

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project, you know, could start
their own operation potentially

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or, or could be fitting into
another, another nearby mill

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rocks with, with a project
that's, you know, under

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construction that, you know, the
race that their equity and and

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then other, you know, advanced
explorers like Waratah in NSW

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with really high quality
projects.

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I like that one, Rick.
And last but not least, what's

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going to be the reverse of that?
The worst performing commodity?

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Yeah, I, I just think the, the
real struggle will, will

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continue for nickel.
And it's just one, you know, I

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think the Indonesians are doing
such a great job at producing,

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you know, large volumes so
cheap.

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It's just so difficult for, for
the, the Australian nickel

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producers to, to, to move in.
So that's, that's commodity that

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I, you know, I'll continue to
stick clear of.

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Fantastic.
Appreciate you making the time

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and joining us on Money of Mine
again to share your predictions,

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Rick.
No worries.

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Thanks so much guys.
Ben Richards from Seneca, right?

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Thank you so much for joining
our Fundy Predictions.

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To kick things off, what is your
highest conviction prediction

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for 2026?
Yeah.

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Thanks for having me guys.
Highest conviction, Prediction

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2026 is XRF Scientific.
XRF is the ticker.

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I think regardless of what
happens in kind of any

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individual commodities, I think
that XRF and some of these

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services players are really well
positioned as a trickle down

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beneficiary of exploration spend
as commodity prices,

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particularly gold, copper, base
metals have increased.

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It's 270 mil market cap.
So it's still quite under the

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radar.
I think it's Orbis crushes have

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been going gangbusters, which
are doing the the gold sample

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crushing sample volumes going
through ALS are improving ALS,

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the stock itself is flying and
XRF supplies among other

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customers, ALS and these lab
groups.

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So yeah, just think the data is
really supportive.

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Cash balances for explorers are
up 20%, which means they're

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going to be doing more
exploration and less likely to

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go under.
Fingers crossed.

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And yeah, I think ABS data last
week was was also supportive in

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terms of exploration last
quarter.

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And it may not be the sexiest
idea, but I think when we'll be

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sitting here in 12 months time
reviewing our predictions with

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accountability.
I think that yeah, on, on

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demanding valuation 21 times PE,
it's got a good recurring

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revenue belly and an history of
earnings growth 2626% per annum

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over the last five years.
Yeah, I think the share price

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will be materially higher in 12
months time.

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Services play.
I like it, Ben.

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And how about your most non
consensus prediction for the

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upcoming year?
Yeah.

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So non consensus going to go
with coal as a sector.

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I suppose more broadly, I think
the energy complex is one that

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could could rebound in 2026.
So we kind of look at oil and

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gas, coal, even lithium and
uranium.

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We've seen natural gas has
started to move higher, coal and

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gas substitutes correlated, bit
of a catch up trade in coal.

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And yeah, just kind of looking
at all this data coming out on

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the the energy mix.
And although the Australian

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government will parrot the
renewables at record highs, I

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think there's still in absolute
terms, coal's still doing quite

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well, even though everyone's
forecasting it to kind of drop

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away into the abyss over the
next few years.

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So I think as a thematic, it's
becoming or it's become quite

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undervalued.
And yeah, I think the tailwinds

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are there in 2026.
I suppose players in the sector

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have spoken on the on the pod
before about New Hope and

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Stanmore.
But I mean, Stanmore, you're

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paying 1516% free cash flow
yield for this coming year at

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kind of bottom of the cycle
prices.

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So, yeah, see, see good kind of
risk reward in in those coal

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stocks and the sector more
broadly.

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Great mate, I suppose the best
performing commodity for 26 is

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thermal Colt.
Well, thought just to kind of

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change it up, throw in another
one that we like, which is

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bauxite.
And yeah, I think just a quick

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overview, it's kind of four to
five tonnes of bauxite goes into

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producing 1 tonne of aluminium.
Again, on the substitutes theme,

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I think aluminium and copper,
kind of interchangeable copper

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prices obviously on the move.
I think more broadly, we kind of

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like the medium term set up for
bauxite in that China is running

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out of domestic bauxite
production, which means they're

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importing more and more bauxite,
which is in Chinese imports have

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grown at 25% KAGR over the last
20 years.

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And we kind of see this as a
similar paradigm to to iron ore

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in that iron ore, even though
the marginal cost of production

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is very low, particularly in
Australia, the prices remained

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high and you say why is that?
Well, I suppose if China is

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willing to pay that marginal
cost for them to to produce

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domestically, then it kind of
the, the floor price is a lot

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higher.
So for books art, we think

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that's sort of in the $70 a
tonne range, which is a

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fantastic price for producers.
And yeah, I think it could be

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quite supportive for equities.
VBX is one I've talked about

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before.
It kind of initially did well

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post IPO and has had really no
love since.

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I think that's a really good way
to play bauxite prices.

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Given that it's Newport, it's
near surface ore body should be

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a very simple open pit truck and
operation going to China, which

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is a lot shorter distance
obviously than Guinea, which is

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where the other production comes
from.

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And we see significant risk too
as it's kind of been highlighted

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this year.
And yeah, it could be a

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potentially significant upside
from a 37 mil market cap

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considering the NPV on offer.
Awesome, Ben.

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And last but not least, what is
going to be the worst performing

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commodity for 26?
So it's a bit of a tricky one

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because, you know, we look at
resources we think could have

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quite a good year in 2026 on the
whole.

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But having said that, I think
there's probably some downside

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in some of these strategic
metals, ones that have benefited

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a lot from these China export
controls, which has provided a,

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you know, real sugar hit for the
commodity prices.

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So things like to call out to
I'd say antimony and tungsten,

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which both look fairly frothy
vertical moves on the commodity

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price charts.
And I think once the hype dies

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down, there'll be a bit weaker
in 2026.

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So don't see the need to chase
these metals.

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And as we've seen in, in kind of
these smaller niche commodity

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markets, even looking at
something like a lithium, once

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the price spikes, it doesn't
take much in in by way of swing

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production to to come online
and, and dampen these prices.

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So Love auto LRV is 1, which is
an interesting restart project

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and they've done really well
getting it to where it is.

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But they're talking about
supplying 7% of global antimony

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out of Hill Grove, so doing just
5000 tonnes per annum

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production.
So as you can see, like this

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supply doesn't take many players
to come online to, to

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significantly increase
production and, and move through

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the cycle.
So yeah, those are a couple to

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to call out, but broadly bullish
on the sector.

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So we'll see how we go.
Even sharing a short candidate,

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I like it.
No, not.

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Necessarily short.
I think it's it's just a, just a

226
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,160
commodity price call really.
I hear ya, appreciate you making

227
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,920
the time for us Ben and sharing
your predictions mate.

228
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,200
Looking forward to seeing how
they fare over the upcoming

229
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:16,800
year.
Thanks guys.

230
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,320
Appreciate the opportunity.
Warren Gilman of Queens Road

231
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,840
Capital, so delighted that
you're joining us again, and I'd

232
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,440
love to know your highest
conviction prediction for 2026.

233
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:32,640
Well, gentlemen, at the risk of
appearing day Class A, can I

234
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,560
recommend my own stock?
Please do I think that is

235
00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:41,360
expected in these predictions.
I mean honest to God I racked my

236
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,920
brain from my highest conviction
and my highest conviction is

237
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:51,640
Queens Road Capital listed on
the TSX and let me tell you 5

238
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,840
seconds as to why.
Next just mentioned hit an all

239
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,400
time record high last night.
Next Gen. is our biggest

240
00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,960
position.
We have about 200 million US of

241
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,840
next Gen.
Whether it converts or common

242
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,440
shares.
Next Gen. has been up 50% year

243
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:12,800
to date.
Queens Road is only up 25% year

244
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,040
to date and yet we pay a
dividend every year that goes up

245
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,680
double digits.
We traded a 40% discount, 40%

246
00:13:20,680 --> 00:13:23,160
discount NAV.
So you can buy next Gen. at a

247
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:27,680
40% discount and get a dividend
every year.

248
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,440
And you get all sorts of other
bonuses.

249
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:34,160
Like we just converted our gold
royalty convert last week.

250
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:40,480
We've got a 70 percent, 70% IRR
and our gold royalty convert.

251
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,680
We still own all our gold
royalty stock, which is at a

252
00:13:43,680 --> 00:13:46,320
record high.
And Tether announced 2 days ago

253
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,800
that they're up to 13.2% on gold
royalty.

254
00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,320
And I've been accumulating stock
over the last month.

255
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:58,720
And Tether, as you know, is the
world's $500 billion gorilla.

256
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,880
So without doubt, the highest
conviction is Queens Road.

257
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,840
Even if we just caught up to
next Gen. that's an easy 25%.

258
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,000
Never mind where we're going to
above that.

259
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,720
So easy call.
Easy call, highest conviction.

260
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,000
Well, I might be a Ding Ding
Ding by the time we air this one

261
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,080
sold.
I like the conviction, Warren,

262
00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,320
how about your most non
consensus prediction for the

263
00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:25,720
upcoming year?
Now I made, I might be talking

264
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:29,320
my own book QRC.
Let me talk against my own book

265
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,800
for non consensus and I am going
to be a bit of a contrarian

266
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:38,440
here.
QR CS portfolio is 50% uranium,

267
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,040
25% copper and 25% gold and
silver.

268
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,440
I'm very bullish on the uranium
price which we'll come to.

269
00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,360
I'm very bullish on gold and
silver.

270
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:57,560
Copper, I think has had its run.
We don't have coordinated global

271
00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,120
growth.
China, I live in China.

272
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,360
I can tell you China's in
trouble.

273
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,960
You know, ongoing real estate
crisis in China.

274
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,720
We don't have consumer
consumption growing to any

275
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,720
extent in the mainland.
Obviously Europe is a problem,

276
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,480
North America is an issue.
Global growth is an issue.

277
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:24,880
We've had a great run up because
of the tariff arbitrage and

278
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,400
because of real supply
constraints.

279
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:31,920
But at the end of the day, it
all comes down to supply and

280
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,040
demand.
The supply is adequate in the

281
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,680
near term.
Demand is not particularly

282
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,000
strong.
So I think copper has had its

283
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:42,960
day and we'll probably close the
year lower.

284
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,760
And I know that's contrarian and
it's a bit against a bit a bit

285
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,840
against my own book and that 25%
of my assets are in copper, but

286
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,400
that's more of a long term play
for me.

287
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,400
The biggest asset we have in
copper is Mashiko Copper, which

288
00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:02,720
will IPO in another 18 months.
And so I'm happy for copper to

289
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,880
take a rest until we IPO.
Then I hope copper takes off

290
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:10,280
again, which I hope it will.
Brilliant Warren going to ask

291
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,680
you about the the best
performing commodity of the year

292
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:19,000
ahead.
I know my call last year didn't

293
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,960
quite perform because I called
uranium.

294
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,880
I'm sticking with it.
I still think uranium could go

295
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:28,720
50% up in the coming year.
We didn't do it this year.

296
00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,000
Well, we started strong.
We started very strong and then

297
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,440
we tailed off.
It's been frustrating,

298
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,680
especially on the spot basis,
but I think uranium could close

299
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,800
the year up 50%.
And the other things that we're

300
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,880
looking at, copper, I've talked
about precious metals I believe

301
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,600
will be higher.
But does it have 50%?

302
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,320
Does the gold price have 50% in
it in the next 12 months?

303
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,960
I don't think so.
I think we need to consolidate

304
00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,720
our positions here around 4000
to 5000.

305
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,760
So I'm calling uranium.
It's gonna be a great year.

306
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,040
Finally, yeah.
And term pricing has been

307
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,200
improving today.
So that that's kind of good to

308
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:10,240
see.
Looking forward to seeing how

309
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,240
that one plays out.
How about the flip side of that

310
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:12,560
one?
What?

311
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,160
What's gonna be the worst
performing commodity?

312
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:21,240
On a thematic basis, anything to
do with China and and that

313
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,040
covers a vast range of
commodities, but the highest

314
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,160
profile, especially in your neck
of the woods is rare earths.

315
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:32,920
How many times do we have to see
this movie where China

316
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:38,280
constricts supply, prices go up,
consumers in Europe and the US

317
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,240
get all excited.
We've got to do something about

318
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:42,760
this.
We've got to do something about

319
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:46,120
this.
We invest hundreds of millions,

320
00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:50,440
if not billions of dollars in
trying to address a rarer supply

321
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,760
chain.
And then China says, oh, goody.

322
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,200
Oh, we didn't.
Oh, oh, you want rare earths, do

323
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:58,880
you?
Oh, here they are.

324
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,920
And then they just flood the
market and drop the price so

325
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:08,000
that every $100 million that you
invested is now extremely

326
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,240
worthless.
You will see China play out that

327
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:15,320
playbook again, which they've
done every five to six years for

328
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,560
the last 30 years.
So watch rare earths.

329
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,600
Same goes for tungsten, same
goes for gallium.

330
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:25,880
Same goes for all of these
specialty metals that China

331
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,160
dominates.
But let's use the Hope high

332
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,720
profile as an example.
Watch for significantly

333
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,640
increased supply of rare earths
over China and the consequent

334
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,880
fall in prices.
Weren't, I know there's only

335
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,920
four questions, but can I throw
in a fifth?

336
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,680
And you can optionally answer
it, but do you think next Gen.

337
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,920
gets acquired on on the permit
announcement if they get the

338
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:52,240
permit in around February?
Well, obviously I don't know the

339
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:59,440
answer to that question and I'm
on the board, so I have to be

340
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,000
careful what how I respond to
that.

341
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:09,520
But obviously once a company
gets fully permitted, which we

342
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:15,680
expect we will be by May after
the second CNSC meeting in

343
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:25,120
February, then I think it's,
it's it's academic that the odds

344
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:29,560
improve with a permit once you
start constructing a mine.

345
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:35,560
That's that's that's an obvious
factual answer.

346
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,880
Very diplomatic.
Thank you so much, Warren.

347
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,800
Really enjoy your your bold
calls and we look forward to to

348
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:43,920
your predictions again next
year.

349
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,120
They're always entertaining.
Tremendous guys, I look forward

350
00:19:47,120 --> 00:19:50,400
to watching the episode.
Kingsley Jones, Jevons Global

351
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,720
Absolute pleasure to see you
again this year.

352
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,120
Last year you threw us a
curveball and predicted

353
00:19:55,120 --> 00:19:56,920
beryllium to be the best
performing commodity.

354
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,840
We had to Google what beryllium
was after that, but very excited

355
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:00,920
to see what you've got in store
for us.

356
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,000
What is your highest conviction
prediction for 2026?

357
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,800
Yeah.
Look, I think that it's, I'm

358
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,200
going to be a little boring here
and say I think it's going to be

359
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:14,040
a great year for copper.
But I want to spice it up a

360
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:18,600
little bit by mentioning also
that I do think that it'll be a

361
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:23,480
good year for molybdenum and
uranium, both which are copper

362
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,120
byproducts for different
reasons.

363
00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:27,560
But look, the main story there
is copper.

364
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,400
I, like many people, have been
following the supply tightness

365
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:37,080
and you know, that big move in
the futures contract and indeed,

366
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,760
you know, perhaps a renewed
copper cycle.

367
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,720
Beautiful was that is that your
your best performing commodity

368
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,320
of the year and then or is that
your highest conviction

369
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,960
prediction?
Oh, that's my highest conviction

370
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:53,640
prediction.
I like it in terms.

371
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,960
I like it in terms of the and
let's break it down.

372
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:02,720
I mean as, as I interpret that,
you know, your highest

373
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,640
conviction prediction is where
you are prepared to put sizeable

374
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,280
capital to work with a high
confidence that you're going to

375
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,080
make a, a, a pretty good return.
So you know, a, a good return is

376
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,000
any in, in trading from my
perspective is anything above

377
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,840
15%.
I expect we'll get at least that

378
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,640
in copper.
And, and therefore I think it's

379
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,560
a, it's a solid contender in
terms of, yeah, the best

380
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,200
performing commodity just in
terms of the widely covered ones

381
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:34,040
where you can put money to work
in terms of pure price action,

382
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:39,880
recognising that you might have
to get out and hurry would,

383
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,960
would have to be silver.
And, and the other one that I

384
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,720
would put in that bucket is, is
platinum.

385
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:52,360
And, and the reasons for that
is, well, silver, you know, it,

386
00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:55,840
it tends to follow gold and we
know that it has a much higher

387
00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,000
beta to those activities.
But the big reason why I think

388
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,080
that maybe silver's still
undercooked is that it's a

389
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,960
major, major input to solar
panels these days.

390
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,320
It's still not the dominant
demand for silver, I don't

391
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,880
think.
But it is building all the time.

392
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,640
And I do think we're we're
really set up for a massive

393
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,480
renewed solar cycle given that
the Chinese players are now, you

394
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,640
know, nudging into
profitability.

395
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:29,120
And we're seeing with the advent
of much lower costs on

396
00:22:29,120 --> 00:22:34,200
stationary energy storage
batteries, particularly sodium

397
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,360
ion batteries for energy storage
in China.

398
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,200
And they're selling a lot of
that kit into emerging markets

399
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,400
in Africa and elsewhere.
I really think we're we're we're

400
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,960
set up for a Goodyear for, for,
for silver in terms of that, but

401
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,640
it's very volatile.
So highest conviction copper,

402
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,640
highest price performance in
beta generally as a trade keep

403
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,000
trading silver.
And I would emphasize that I

404
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,400
don't think it's a buy and hold.
Copper I think is a buy and

405
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,200
hold.
In music to the ears of the

406
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,000
Silver Bulls out there,
Kingsley, how about your non

407
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,640
consensus prediction?
Yeah, look, that's where I come

408
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,440
in on the, the, the Molly and
the uranium just because they're

409
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,600
outside of, you know, most
focus.

410
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,280
And, and just for context,
they're two very different

411
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,880
metals in terms of end use.
But I think both end use markets

412
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,280
are probably going to have
better years in, in terms of

413
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:30,280
commodity picks.
Molly is produced as a secondary

414
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,440
product primarily from copper
smelting.

415
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,600
So you're going to get most of
your, of your, of your Molly

416
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:40,520
from Cadelco in Chile, which
runs a, a big copper smelter as

417
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:45,600
everybody knows, and then others
like KGHM in Poland and and and

418
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,880
so on.
Molly is mainly used in

419
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,920
hardening steel.
And one of the big application

420
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:57,440
areas is oil country, tubular
goods, ACTG pipes.

421
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,760
You need to put the Molly in
there so that the gas and other

422
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,440
volatiles don't destroy the
pipe.

423
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:11,720
And so for any sort of LNG
activity, piped natural gas,

424
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:18,360
piped oil production, ACTG
tubing is in demand. 2 stocks

425
00:24:18,360 --> 00:24:24,320
just offhand, Tenaros, the New
York listed Tenaros stock, which

426
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,240
is an Argentine producer with
operations all around the world,

427
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,680
including the US.
For ACTG.

428
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,080
That looks pretty good to me as
a steel plate and the other one

429
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:39,720
in France's Veloric, which is,
you know, ahead a world of

430
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,760
misery until you know, it's
starting to pick up now.

431
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,720
So look, Molly, I think is, is
kind of good.

432
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,240
I don't think you buy Molly
specifically.

433
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:55,160
You, you buy copper plays that
have Molly credits and Ditto for

434
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,480
renium.
I mean, you don't there's no

435
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,440
primary mine for renium.
It's a, it's a, it's a fly speck

436
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,600
of a commodity, but it's, it's
very, very important in defense,

437
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:09,160
way more important than rare
earths because you cannot build

438
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,920
high performance fighter jets
without radium.

439
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,680
And there's only a couple of 100
tons on the planet.

440
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,920
And that all comes from tertiary
circuits on copper smelters.

441
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,960
So again, if you're buying
copper exposures, you're going

442
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,080
to get credits.
Most of those credits would go

443
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,520
to smelters, which would be
Kadelka.

444
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,000
But if you're looking for a
listed play in that area, I'd

445
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:33,800
I'd recommend KGHM in in Poland,
which is a vertically integrated

446
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,880
copper, the minor producers,
smelter, whatever.

447
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,480
Not every day we get French
stocks pitched on the podcast,

448
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,480
which is, yeah, a wide world out
there and a lot of things to

449
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,040
look at.
I appreciate that, Kingsley.

450
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,000
And last but not least, what's
going to be the worst performing

451
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,280
commodity?
Look, I, I think, you know, if

452
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,200
you're looking at the big ones,
soft commodities generally I

453
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:53,920
think will be weak, but we're
not talking about that.

454
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,000
We're talking about mining.
I, I just don't have any hope

455
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:02,480
for Ryan org moving up.
Look, I think with Samandu

456
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,800
coming on stream in, in in
Africa, the Rio play in joint

457
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,000
venture, I just think the
outlook for Ryan Org is more of

458
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,440
the same.
Just go sideways.

459
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,560
And my view for, I don't know,
five years now has been, you

460
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:21,040
know, $100 is the mark on on a
bad day, you might go to 85.

461
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,280
On a good day, you might go to
115.

462
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:25,760
Hundreds of mark.
Yeah, moving.

463
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,240
So it's it's kind of boring.
I actually remember you wrote,

464
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,200
you wrote an article about like
$90.00 being a fluorophine or

465
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,600
and you know, yeah, yeah, you've
largely been very correct on

466
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:36,880
that.
So kudos to you.

467
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,960
Well, yeah, exactly, because a
lot of people have like a

468
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,680
$75.00.
But all the same, 100 bucks is

469
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,480
pretty good for a lot of our
pill replayers.

470
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,560
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Don't, don't be shy.

471
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,360
I mean, there'll be money to be
made.

472
00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:51,800
I think now the action in Rio
and BHP will be their copper

473
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,320
plans, not they're not there on
all plans.

474
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,000
Absolutely great to chat as
always, Kingsley, thanks for

475
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:01,000
joining us. 100% Thanks guys.
Hank Rule from Sierra Marina

476
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,800
Capital, thank you so much for
joining us this year.

477
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,320
Thank you guys, always a
pleasure.

478
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,040
What is your highest conviction
prediction for the next year?

479
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,560
Man, well, I'm going to sound
like a broken record since the

480
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,160
last time I was on you guys, but
guess what it is?

481
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:19,720
It is still none other than
Magnum mining up in Sudbury ON

482
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,280
remains my largest position.
You know, we talked about it

483
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,760
back then.
I've not sold this share since

484
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,160
it's this has been a ramp up
year for their Macrede W mine,

485
00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:32,960
but they finally got into higher
grade or there in November and

486
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,200
with their Levac mine coming
online potentially next year.

487
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,000
They just had it updated MRE
this past November, grades

488
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,200
significantly better than the
historical KGHM estimate.

489
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:47,680
And plus, you know, there's,
there's this excellent

490
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,840
exploration potential at that
Lavac mine as well as a number

491
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,880
of other properties.
Well, you know, maybe, just

492
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,920
maybe at Lavac, they've got a
rerun of the Morrison deposit

493
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,080
again, very early days.
We will, we will see.

494
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,240
But in any event, there's still
plenty of meat on the bone.

495
00:28:00,360 --> 00:28:04,200
All their mines team keeps
forging ahead and you know,

496
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:08,480
look, they, they continue to to,
you know, make progress.

497
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,720
The share price continues to go
up, but at this point still like

498
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,800
if, if you guys can, you know,
find another North American

499
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,680
copper producer that is trading
below NAV at, you know, NAV at

500
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,480
$4.00 copper these days, like
let me know.

501
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,520
I, I probably would like to buy
that too.

502
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,840
But you know, yeah, I also saw
you guys had all of macro on

503
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:27,920
recently.
He did a great article on

504
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,040
nickel, the invisible metal.
And I'm not going to be brave

505
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,400
enough to make nickel on my
call, but, but like if nickel

506
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,800
ever gets going, like look out
on Magna and actually he

507
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,040
mentioned Magna spoil on this
article.

508
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,640
I won't spoil it for or you
know, non, non subscribers, but

509
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,040
you observed you know what it's
trading at 2 1/2 * 2027 EBITDA

510
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,280
and these words that that's
beyond cheap.

511
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,040
So that's Magna.
So it's still still long.

512
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:52,880
Magnificent call with Magna
mate.

513
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,880
What about your most non
consensus prediction for 26?

514
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,280
Ma'am, I thought about going a
lot of ways with this one and I

515
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,840
don't know if it's non consensus
for like the 20 people on earth,

516
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,120
all of the stock, but but given
where it's been trading, I think

517
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,480
it's almost by definition going
with it's Aussie listed Kings

518
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,120
Rose mining, finished finished
platinum explorer.

519
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,880
I've been accumulating over the
last six months.

520
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,600
I think it's a crazy set up.
They're still not trading much

521
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,760
above cash.
It's maybe a thirty $35 million

522
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,360
Aussie market cap and then
you've got 20 million Aussie in

523
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,080
cash and they've, you know,
exploration partnership with BHP

524
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,800
in Northern Norway.
But then they've got what's

525
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,600
quite possibly one of the
world's largest and highest

526
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,800
grade PGM projects outside South
Africa.

527
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,600
It's Panicat, Northern Finland.
The court approval of drill

528
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,760
should be coming through
literally any day now.

529
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,680
They've got the government
permit.

530
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:46,880
I mean, yeah, literally.
Any day, right?

531
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,920
I'm laughing because I've got to
do a Ding, Ding, Ding on it.

532
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,160
And yeah, the the drilling,
we're waiting to drill another

533
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,480
hole since 2016, but yeah, it's
coming.

534
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:54,960
Any day.
Yeah, I know.

535
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,680
What I'm doing?
Right when no it's it's from any

536
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,000
day right we're yeah and you can
grow cobwebs.

537
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,360
We're on month 16 of this 12
month process.

538
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,720
So I actually, I actually was
almost saying like, I hope that

539
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,520
permit doesn't finally come
through this evening.

540
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,560
I'd have to find like something
else to tell you guys about.

541
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,120
But but you know, still would've
been nice.

542
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,120
But you know, I, I just think
it's, it's crazy cheap.

543
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,600
Like if you they again, they got
their permit.

544
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,280
It's been appealed by a couple
of environmental NGOs on what

545
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,840
are what are pretty frivolous
ground if you look into it, like

546
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,920
the appeal references uranium
mining, which isn't isn't going

547
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,840
on there.
No uranium Pico, you look at the

548
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,840
track record, one of the Ng OS
that appealed Scott N who's a

549
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,160
former company officer, he's
pretty active on X.

550
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,280
You know, posted actually, you
know you can you can find it on

551
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,840
X as well.
We've got like a 99 mining watch

552
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,800
Finland.
They got like a 99% rejection

553
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,400
rate in terms of their appeals.
They just go out and appeal

554
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,200
whatever stuff is going on in
Finland.

555
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,480
So again, if they if and when
they get their permit, which to

556
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,760
you guys point, you know, I hope
it's the season.

557
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,640
Not sure what it re rates to,
but like you're probably looking

558
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:05,280
at several million oz at several
grams, a ton of PGM's included

559
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,400
and it's like 60.
Like you got rhodium in there,

560
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,360
like half a gram per ton of
rhodium starting from surface

561
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,880
and what's supposed to be,
according to Fraser Institute,

562
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:14,360
most mining friendly
jurisdiction on Earth.

563
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,240
So I, I was really like, there
was a war set up there and I'm

564
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,720
like low key bullish on PGM's
too so.

565
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,400
One for people to do a bit of a
bit of homework on Hank, How

566
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,320
about the best performing
commodity?

567
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:33,040
This is not a spicy answer.
There's like a whole roster of

568
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,160
of uranium bulls who would
probably, you know, make all my

569
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,960
points and more.
But if you think about uranium

570
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,520
and that that's my answer, it's
just remarkable like all the

571
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,720
positive progress we have had on
the demand front over the past

572
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,040
call it two years, all the
supply delays, all the ramp up

573
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,040
challenges, production
shortfalls, etcetera.

574
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,360
And it's pretty crazy.
I mean I know the long term

575
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,320
price has been ticking up.
Obviously it's actually good

576
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,360
that that has otherwise you'd
really start to worry.

577
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,320
But it's pretty crazy that from
a spot price front we're pretty

578
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,920
much you know, back where we
were over two years ago like

579
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:11,480
October N20002023.
So, you know, we're still not to

580
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,920
my understanding that
replacement rate contracting and

581
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,200
I'm not saying for sure that
like 2026 of the year where you

582
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,680
get something breaking in the
uranium market.

583
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,360
But I also think there's no
reason it wouldn't be.

584
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,760
You look at what basically the
whole rest of critical minerals

585
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,760
complex has done over the past
year.

586
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,840
You look at clearly where the US
and other countries have as, in

587
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,480
terms of nuclear renaissance as
a priority.

588
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,720
Look at like the $80 billion
deal with Westinghouse, for

589
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,680
example.
You look at their, you know, the

590
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,480
Trump guys are talking about a
strategic uranium reserve.

591
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,280
You've still got Sprott
periodically active in the

592
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,360
market.
And I just think there's, you

593
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,360
know, there's a lot of things
that could be the straw that

594
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,200
breaks the, I don't know, you
know, breaks the reactor's back.

595
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,680
So we'll see.
I'm, you know, I'm hopeful.

596
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,560
Brilliant mate.
What about the flip side?

597
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:05,320
So worst, worst commodity, I was
gonna, I was, I was gonna say,

598
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,040
you know, rare earths at least
judged by the, you know, spot

599
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,680
price of NDPR in China.
But that's I think that's that's

600
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,800
a little bit of a of a cop out
because it's not really, you

601
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,040
know, there's many ways to
misery.

602
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,440
I think think I will instead go
with cobalt, you know, again,

603
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,120
nothing revelatory here.
It's a metal I think a lot of

604
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,680
people love to hate, but you
look at it and it's up 100% last

605
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,160
year, right?
And that's not due to anything,

606
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,480
you know, truly structural in
terms of supply and man, supply

607
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:31,720
and man, it's still pretty
cooked, right.

608
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,440
You've got a lot of price and
sensitive supply.

609
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,480
You've got demand destruction
from shifting, you know, away

610
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:41,600
from, you know, less cobalt,
cobalt free batteries, but you

611
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,040
do have the DRC government, you
know, controlling banning

612
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,520
exports that's supposed to be
placed with a for placed with a

613
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,680
quota system now slash soon.
My understanding is that's still

614
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,920
not even the case yet.
You know, things could go higher

615
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,240
before they go lower, right like
it's going to take some time

616
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,400
even once they do get that quota
system in place for exports to

617
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,320
get out to China.
But and, and then also you've

618
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,120
got the US government in the
mix, right, the DLA working to

619
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,320
buy half a billion dollars of
cobalt.

620
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,840
They seems like they cancelled
actually their tender, maybe

621
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,480
it's back on now.
But Long story short, like those

622
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,600
are, you know, those are
temporary disruptions to I think

623
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,080
was a was a pretty permanent
grim looking supply demand

624
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,800
picture.
So I don't, I don't think

625
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,719
there's any reason for cobalt to
hang around $50,000 a ton.

626
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,280
Awesome Hank, thanks for coming
on and sharing your predictions.

627
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,520
Very keen to see how they play
out.

628
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,280
Thank you as always, guys.
Yeah, me too.

629
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,320
Headley with up line selection
group.

630
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,800
It's like you've never left.
We're delighted to to speak with

631
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,360
you again so shortly after our
last conversation.

632
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,440
We're more interested in what
your big picks are for 2026.

633
00:34:46,639 --> 00:34:49,199
Lead us away with your highest
conviction prediction for the

634
00:34:49,199 --> 00:34:51,560
year ahead.
Well, I was going to start with

635
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,120
the North Queensland Cowboys
winning the NRL premiership, but

636
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,679
I think I'm going to be on a
massive hiding to nothing there.

637
00:34:56,679 --> 00:35:01,200
So my highest conviction
prediction for 2026 is that

638
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:05,080
liquidity improves.
That means people can raise more

639
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,920
money in the junior end,
explorers, developers, and that

640
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,560
spreads out.
This year we've seen it very

641
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,600
focused on gold.
I see that spreading into other

642
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,120
things.
That's my highest conviction for

643
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:15,920
2026.
Beautiful.

644
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,000
I like it Headley.
And how about if we move to your

645
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:23,760
most non consensus for you?
Well, I was going to say

646
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,400
something about gold M&A, but
it's just really risky to kind

647
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,720
of make picks on that and you're
tempted to go into too much

648
00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:31,720
detail thinking deeply about it.
And this was actually provoked

649
00:35:31,720 --> 00:35:35,320
by the conversation that we had
when I was in your office a week

650
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,960
and a bit ago.
And I think that 2026,

651
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,160
particularly as the world starts
to invest in future supply of

652
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,000
mining again, is going to be the
year where we start to see the

653
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,520
differentiation based on
jurisdictional risk.

654
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:51,240
So in the last 10 years, maybe
you know, 80% of the funding

655
00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:54,840
went to the Americas, Australia,
Canada, etcetera and 20% to the

656
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,880
rest of the world or so.
So a bit like that, I think that

657
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,960
split's going to be much more
Western markets are prepared to

658
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,520
fund projects in areas which are
considered safe.

659
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,520
And some of those jurisdictions
which are more edgy are probably

660
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,480
going to see a lack of money or
funding via Chinese markets or

661
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,720
something like that.
And I think that's been becoming

662
00:36:13,720 --> 00:36:15,880
more obvious.
But I think 2026 is a year where

663
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,160
it'll become far more apparent
as funding starts to spread out.

664
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,120
I like you thinking Hedley.
You know my big call for 26

665
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:24,240
mate.
It's Hedley wearing the same

666
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:28,080
shirt on money of mine again.
Hedley, How about your best

667
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:29,320
performing commodity for the
year?

668
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,560
My best performing copper
commodity is copper and I don't

669
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,520
think there's anything too
controversial about that.

670
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,680
It's been bumping up against a
roof for the last 20 years.

671
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,120
Demand, I think is, is starting
to look robust enough.

672
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,240
I just don't know if it's going
to burst through that or creep

673
00:36:47,240 --> 00:36:48,800
through that.
But I think copper is going to

674
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,080
perform very, very well next
year and beyond.

675
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,360
Fingers crossed on that one.
And last but not least, worst

676
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,040
performing commodity.
Well, the US dollar isn't a

677
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,360
commodity, is it?
But I was thinking that could

678
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,000
become a fossil fuel soon, and I
don't think it's going to

679
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,560
perform very well in price
sense.

680
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:10,000
Even so, that might not be a
story for 2026 so to speak about

681
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:13,560
an actual commodity.
I, I sort of get the sense that

682
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:17,880
there is an awful lot of price
expectation built up in some of

683
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,480
the the criticals.
Some of them have become quite

684
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,040
elevated and are now in a
position where we're going to

685
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:28,320
see project delivery of new
supply either next year or the

686
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,680
anticipation of it next year
turning into delivery in 2027.

687
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,360
So I see volatility in some of
the criticals markets,

688
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,000
particularly the small metals
markets with projects close to

689
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,520
delivery and antimony is
probably the example which is

690
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,720
closest to mine there.
I think it's a lot harder to

691
00:37:43,720 --> 00:37:48,600
bring new uranium, rare earth,
etcetera projects to market and

692
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,840
they'll be tempted by price, but
a bit slower to deliver.

693
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,360
I think antimony is the one
that's kind of got the look of

694
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,320
lithium about it at the moment.
Antimony is the new whipping boy

695
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,360
I think.
Has have other people been

696
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:00,080
whipping it?
Have they?

697
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,640
There, there has been a couple.
I mean it's had a great run,

698
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,920
hasn't it?
So you can say it in the same

699
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,680
breath as a few of those other
critical minerals that may be

700
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,480
coming back down to reality in
the coming year.

701
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:15,800
Yeah, well, I mean, whenever we
see a a ferocious run in a

702
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,040
market which is really small,
you just get the the impression

703
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,640
that something's very delicately
balanced.

704
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:24,040
So I suppose that's what kind of
leads to my thinking there.

705
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,880
But maybe I'm not being as
original as I thought it could

706
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:27,760
be.
Someone else bit me to the

707
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,240
punch.
I'd be more than happy to share

708
00:38:29,240 --> 00:38:31,840
that prediction.
Nothing like the incentive of

709
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,480
high prices.
He'd be great to chat.

710
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,480
As always, thanks for coming on
and sharing your predictions.

711
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,040
It's been great to chat to you
chaps and I hope you have a

712
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,360
lovely break over Christmas.
I can't wait to talk to you next

713
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,080
year.
I need to pause just for a

714
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,080
moment, JD, because I kind of
need to research all of these

715
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,360
opportunities that are coming
up.

716
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,120
Just going to pause, going to
take 5 while I'm having a

717
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:50,160
breather.
Have you got something for me?

718
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,600
I do mate.
I've got a prediction of my own,

719
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,920
a very high conviction
prediction.

720
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,240
Tell me that Sandvik Ground
Support continues to be the best

721
00:38:58,240 --> 00:39:00,640
ground support service in the
entire mining industry.

722
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,160
What do you reckon?
You don't even need to make when

723
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,160
you're predicting something with
100% certainty, no one really

724
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:07,520
gives you credit for that
prediction.

725
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,640
It's true and that's why I
didn't make it a non consensus

726
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,920
for you because everyone knows
Sandvik ground support is the

727
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,880
best ground support in the
industry.

728
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,080
Just look at their innovations,
look at the stuff they've come

729
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:17,200
out with in the last couple
weeks.

730
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,800
Mate.
We've got new resin capsules for

731
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:20,840
the underground miners out
there.

732
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,840
We've also got underground
sensors.

733
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,840
Remember, it's not just ground
support they do, but they want

734
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,520
to keep the people safe
underground.

735
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,960
So check out the new sensors,
seamlessly integrate with

736
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,280
everything you've got
underground.

737
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,280
You can get them in there, plug
in and play in no time.

738
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:37,200
I feel like every single week
Sandbic ground support has a new

739
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,040
product out and it's almost,
it's almost as certain as

740
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,160
Sandbic being the best provider
of ground support in the

741
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,720
industry.
That's almost that's actually

742
00:39:43,720 --> 00:39:47,600
just as certain as waking up
tomorrow and it being another

743
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,480
day.
It's very true.

744
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,760
I just go on Derek Herds
LinkedIn whenever I need a bit

745
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:52,240
of an update and it's just
beautiful.

746
00:39:52,240 --> 00:39:54,600
You can see the updates come
through one after the other.

747
00:39:54,720 --> 00:39:57,240
Just a daily checkup of Derek's
LinkedIn account.

748
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,800
I go on Derek's LinkedIn and I
click send me a notification

749
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,000
when Derek doesn't need post
because they don't never miss

750
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,760
anything.
Yeah, that's the way to go.

751
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,280
And money minus sat there.
I think you should do the same

752
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,720
and go one step better.
Get in touch with Derek Herd.

753
00:40:09,720 --> 00:40:12,200
Put in an order with Sandvik
ground support.

754
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,720
Go Sandvik.
Supporting the mining industry

755
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,080
and Sandvik supporting us.
Thank you.

756
00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:19,880
Rusty, it's prediction time mate
2026.

757
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,000
What is your highest conviction
prediction for the upcoming

758
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,120
year?
Yeah, cool.

759
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:31,120
Thank you so much for having me.
As always, love your work.

760
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:38,680
So yeah, gratitude for that.
And always love this question.

761
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,840
Highest conviction answer would
be whatever I tell you'll be

762
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,480
wrong so.
We looked at that, we looked at

763
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,840
your predictions last year and
you were pretty bang on.

764
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,280
Pretty, pretty stellar calls
from last year, which we can

765
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:52,880
maybe we can run through at the
end quickly, OK.

766
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,040
Cool, That'd be great for the
year you go.

767
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,920
Thank you.
No worries.

768
00:41:01,240 --> 00:41:05,680
So, so, yeah, I think it's, it's
a it's a wonderful question.

769
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:09,680
It's always a tricky one because
it's a probabilistic estimate of

770
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,600
a future event.
And so like as an organization,

771
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:18,120
as an ethos, we, we, we
deliberately try to leave space

772
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:24,040
by, we sort of set anticipated
direction, but try not to build

773
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:28,600
expectation, if that sounds, if
that, if that makes sense

774
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:33,720
without getting too sort of
philosophical about it, but, but

775
00:41:33,720 --> 00:41:37,520
we'll jump to the answer.
So, so highest conviction

776
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:43,800
prediction for 2026 would be The
West Awakens.

777
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:51,080
So, So what does that mean?
It means that today, you know,

778
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:55,680
our view is that we are very
firmly in a multipolar dynamic,

779
00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:05,000
not approaching one, but in one.
And I think that the West more

780
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:11,600
broadly, so you know, us here in
Australia, the US, Europe,

781
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:17,440
Canada, etcetera, and some of
the Southeast Asian nations,

782
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,040
Japan, you could include in that
mix.

783
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:24,600
I think in general there's a
psychological difficulty in

784
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:30,560
accepting the movement from AUS
hegemony to A to a multipolar

785
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,560
dynamic.
I think we are already in one

786
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:41,160
and that awareness and
acceptance will come in 2026.

787
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:46,360
And that has very dramatic
ramifications for how we all

788
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,640
think about things.
So yeah, we firmly believe we're

789
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,560
in that dynamic.
There has been a reluctance to

790
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:57,840
acceptance of the dynamic.
We think 2026 will see

791
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,960
acceptance and it's going to
have very, very major

792
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,760
ramifications.
And I think we will see that and

793
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:12,680
feel that most relative to to
markets is in the function of

794
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,680
the Fed.
And I think we're going to

795
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:21,400
understand that the Fed, the the
concept of independence of the

796
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,480
US Fed is going to shift quite
dramatically.

797
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:31,840
And and so we will start to see
and understand the Fed as a

798
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:41,200
subset towards US objectives
that are framed within a multi

799
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:47,400
polar dynamic.
And so the Fed will function as

800
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,800
a subset to that or strategic
driver.

801
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:57,600
That has not been the case for a
very, very long time.

802
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:03,040
And, and some, some people like
to talk about a multi polar

803
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:08,440
dynamic through the Cold War.
That was not a true multi polar

804
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,480
dynamic.
That was multi polar in a

805
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:14,920
military sense, but never in an
economic one.

806
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,720
We're now in in one that is very
firmly both economic and

807
00:44:18,720 --> 00:44:23,040
military.
And, and, and as I said, that

808
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:27,000
awareness and understanding will
bring some very dramatic changes

809
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:32,600
and I think the Fed will
function subservient to that the

810
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:37,560
strategic challenge.
And, and as such, they were

811
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,040
going to say a lot less
independence from the Fed.

812
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,360
And I think that's been well
flagged by the administration in

813
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:48,560
the US And so I do think we we
are in an era of financial

814
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:54,880
repression.
I think the Fed will be, we'll

815
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:58,440
be assisting in how that plays
out and it will be very, very

816
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,760
hard to navigate and understand
that because financial

817
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:05,320
repression doesn't work if
everybody sees and understands

818
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,720
it.
Does that make sense?

819
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:12,040
I know that's a little bit of a.
It's a wide one in a bit.

820
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,800
It's wonderful bit of a Riddle
you've you've viewed on non

821
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,040
consensus in your highest
conviction prediction already.

822
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,640
But I I can't, I can't help but
now ask for your non consensus

823
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,600
call.
Yeah, cool, cool.

824
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,280
So so and just rounding that
out, I think that means lower

825
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:31,040
rates and higher inflation and
the Fed will accommodate that.

826
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:35,040
Yeah.
And and that that has very

827
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:41,480
meaningful implications for many
financial market dynamics and

828
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,760
asset classes.
Most non consensus prediction

829
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,600
for 2026.
Again, I think it'll be a bit

830
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:54,560
off topic perhaps to, to where
many of your guests might wade

831
00:45:54,560 --> 00:46:00,240
here, given that obviously this
is a resources specialist

832
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:06,400
podcast.
I think we will see in 2026 a

833
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:11,360
bit of an AI reset and and
there's some great coverage on

834
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:15,120
this from people far more
intelligent than than myself,

835
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:22,800
but AI will be more disruptive
than many appreciate, but also

836
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,840
more complicated and harder to
execute.

837
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:32,320
So simplistic adoption of LLMS I
think will struggle or fail

838
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:38,040
versus like detailed agentic
engineering and and those that

839
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:41,280
embrace detailed agentic
engineering will win.

840
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:47,440
So small bespoke specialist
models that plug in LLMS through

841
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:51,520
a very sort of intelligently and
considered an engineered work

842
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:57,800
stream will win.
So AI augmentation over

843
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:02,680
simplistic AI replacement, you
know, this idea that LLMS just

844
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,120
jump in and and get the job
done.

845
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:12,720
I think will not will not happen
at the same time.

846
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:17,560
It will still be incredibly
impactful, but it will only be

847
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:24,520
those that first of all adopt AI
and secondly do in a tremendous

848
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:29,880
amount of work within the
agentic engineering.

849
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:34,640
So augmentation as a ploy.
So if you those that lose will

850
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:38,480
be those that Simply put their
head in the sand and say it's

851
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:43,960
not a thing, go away, that's all
too difficult to to embrace.

852
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:48,880
Or those that say, oh, it's
cool, it's coming and I'll just

853
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,320
wait for a third party to
deliver something that does

854
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,040
everything for me.
I think neither of those will

855
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,880
succeed.
Those types of mindsets will be

856
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:05,240
displaced by groups who think
very, very hard around how they

857
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,960
utilize AI.
And that takes a lot of human

858
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,000
work, ironically enough.
Does that make sense?

859
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,760
Yeah, Yeah.
I like the big picture thinking,

860
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,280
Rusty, when when you take into
account your view of a lower

861
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,320
interest rate world going
forward, how does that, how does

862
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,800
that reflect itself in a best
performing commodity for next

863
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:30,040
year?
Yeah, great question.

864
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,560
And best performing is really
always tricky, right, Because

865
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,120
it's again, it's a moment in
time.

866
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:38,360
And so best performing relative
to what?

867
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:43,840
So are we saying best performing
relative to this moment, the

868
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:50,080
spot price And yes, yes.
And so if that is the question,

869
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:54,120
it's a really tricky one because
that means a percentage movement

870
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,800
from this moment.
So I could say to you, like we

871
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:02,920
still really like gold and we
really like tin for for very

872
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,920
different reasons.
So we still have really high

873
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:10,440
allocations to those spaces, but
do we think they would be the

874
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:15,040
highest percentage movers from
the spot price today?

875
00:49:15,720 --> 00:49:21,880
Probably not.
So the answer to that one, it is

876
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:26,600
a guesstimate.
I'm going to go with nickel and

877
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:33,040
and that's pretty outlined too.
And and so nickel could easily

878
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:37,360
move, you know, 50% higher than
where it trades today.

879
00:49:38,240 --> 00:49:43,320
And the ironic part of that
answer is it could do that and

880
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:47,640
every Western nickel asset would
still remain uninvestable.

881
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:53,560
So, so even if you held that
view, which is, you know, the

882
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,640
one I'm giving as a best
guesstimate in terms of

883
00:49:55,640 --> 00:50:01,080
percentage movements, that
doesn't mean you're running out

884
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:04,640
and buying every nickel asset
you can find either.

885
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:09,920
It just means that I think this
year you know nickel has nickel

886
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:14,880
has an is trading into the cost
curve even though that that cost

887
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:17,440
curve has shifted so
dramatically over the last five

888
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:19,840
years.
But there is more discipline

889
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:25,520
coming from the production that
matters which is predominantly

890
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:30,840
Indonesian based geographically
and Chinese owned.

891
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:35,360
And with that discipline, I
think we could see better nickel

892
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:38,280
prices.
But I think even within that

893
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:42,360
framework, you don't want to own
any of the Western nickel assets

894
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:45,240
because that, that will shift
again.

895
00:50:45,720 --> 00:50:49,760
And and so no, I don't think
that you want to scurry out and

896
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:53,280
buy a heap of Western nickel
assets even if you think nickels

897
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,560
going higher.
So, so we own, we own nickel

898
00:50:56,560 --> 00:51:00,040
industries.
We like it as a as a business.

899
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,040
We think it's a tremendous
business.

900
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,680
We think nickel could go higher
next year as a percentage

901
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,160
movement, but but yeah, owning
Western nickel assets would

902
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,960
still be really problematic.
The flip side?

903
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,600
Rusty, the worst performing
commodity for the next 12 months

904
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,680
from spot today.
Yeah, I think in line we've

905
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,640
found out all my answers here.
I'm going to go right off paste

906
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:27,240
and and arguably pretty probably
pretty non consensus.

907
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:32,880
So I would say sort of anything
China dominant, I think we have

908
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:36,400
a very, you know, this year
we've seen a very interesting

909
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,200
narrative around, you know,
anything that China dominates.

910
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:42,800
You want to own understand
exactly where that's come from.

911
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:50,880
But I don't think that the West,
you know, the US administration

912
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,400
under Biden, you had the
Inflation Reduction Act under

913
00:51:54,400 --> 00:52:00,840
Trump, you have different things
that still don't solve the

914
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:09,400
equation.
So the West still has a problem

915
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,240
to to solve for, but they don't
have the policy settings yet to

916
00:52:13,240 --> 00:52:18,000
solve it.
So in 2026, you know, I think

917
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,920
spaces like silver LED zinc, you
know, there's a history of

918
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:26,440
Chinese supply response to price
signals in those spaces.

919
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:34,280
So if you're going in with
expectation that that anything

920
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:38,720
that's China dominant is going
to continue to roof next year, I

921
00:52:38,720 --> 00:52:42,080
don't think the policy setting
in the West is quite where it

922
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:48,240
needs to be yet for that to hold
so portion warranted.

923
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,320
Fantastic as always, great to
chat Rusty, appreciate you

924
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,120
sharing your predictions and
looking forward to seeing how

925
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:55,880
they go over the coming year
mate.

926
00:52:55,960 --> 00:53:00,760
John Forward of Lau Resource
Funds Management, absolutely

927
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,080
spectacular year that you've had
and Congrats on that.

928
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:08,880
We're very keen to to pry out
your wisdom looking into 2026.

929
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,720
John, what is your highest
conviction prediction for 26?

930
00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:19,280
Oh, look, actually, you know,
I've got a, a stock, stock

931
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:20,880
prediction.
Is that, is that all right guys?

932
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:22,760
It is totally fine.
OK.

933
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:24,560
Yeah.
Look, so obviously talking our

934
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:31,000
own book, but you know, our our
biggest holding dollar value is

935
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:36,080
Astral Resources.
And I guess that's sort of, you

936
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,440
know, this this, you know, it's
a it's a prime candidate for

937
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,920
M&A.
So that's sort of exemplifies in

938
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:44,080
the gold, WA gold sector that
that's probably an example.

939
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:49,440
You know, we think WA gold M&A
in particular, M&A in gold in

940
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:53,200
general is going to have a big
year next year.

941
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:55,560
It's already had a pretty big
year in 25.

942
00:53:55,560 --> 00:54:01,480
So you know, I think Astral, you
know, it's trading at AP NAV of

943
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:06,360
about .1.
So I think, I think we'll see

944
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:12,360
more value attributed to these
redevelopment opportunities one

945
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:16,240
way or the other in in 2026 and
particularly in gold.

946
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:18,440
I like it John.
I like it a lot.

947
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,560
How about your most non
consensus prediction?

948
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:27,400
So another, another, another
stock which is very much under

949
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:29,440
the radar.
And I think, you know, I'm

950
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,560
really excited about it from an
exploration point of view is one

951
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:34,960
that perhaps not too many people
have heard of.

952
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:39,120
It's a little one in our
portfolio called Alvo Minerals

953
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:43,800
over in Brazil looking for, you
know, polymetallic VMS

954
00:54:44,720 --> 00:54:51,160
discoveries in a pretty, you
know, well endowed belt of VM S

955
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:55,120
S at the Palmer project.
And they've just got onto

956
00:54:55,120 --> 00:55:00,520
something which I think has got
the elements of exciting

957
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:03,560
discovery.
It's called two row, they've got

958
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:07,400
100% of it.
It's, you know, over a kilometer

959
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:12,720
long in surface geochemistry and
Gossens, it's got some big AM

960
00:55:12,720 --> 00:55:17,640
plates at depth and their
initial 2 drill holes into this

961
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:21,400
thing and they've been drilled
before have hit visual, you

962
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:26,880
know, some exciting visual LED
zinc, copper mineralization

963
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:31,000
awaiting the essays.
But for a market cap of 10

964
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:35,800
million bucks or thereabouts, I
think it represents some really

965
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,240
exciting value.
That's one we're going to have

966
00:55:38,240 --> 00:55:40,480
to have a look at after this
call, but thank you.

967
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:41,680
Thanks, mate.
What's your best performing

968
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:47,160
commodity for 2026?
Look, one that you know has been

969
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:51,080
the worst performing commodity
for 2025 or, or, or or amongst

970
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,520
them.
And it's not just because I

971
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,400
think, you know, it's, it's
going to be just because it's

972
00:55:56,440 --> 00:56:02,040
been down, it's got to go up.
But oil I think could do pretty

973
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:08,720
well in 2026.
It's certainly been very low in

974
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:12,200
2025 and has been, you know,
the, the G word mentioned, the

975
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,080
glut, the glut word mentioned in
oil.

976
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:24,920
But in fact, you know oil 80% of
the time it is driven by the

977
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:28,320
strength or otherwise of the US
dollar, IE when the US dollar

978
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:31,280
goes down, oil, oil tends to go
up.

979
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,520
So I think that we may see a
weaker U.S.

980
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:40,760
Dollar in 2026 and we could see
the oil price strengthen quite

981
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,720
substantially, particularly, you
know, if there's some production

982
00:56:43,720 --> 00:56:47,360
discipline or more production
discipline from OPEC, OPEC Plus.

983
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:50,200
First one to call that energy.
I like that, John.

984
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,640
And last but not least, what is
going to be the worst performing

985
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:55,760
commodity for next year?
Look, it's very hard.

986
00:56:55,760 --> 00:57:00,000
I was saying to the guys at here
at the fund, there's so many

987
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:02,440
commodities with great
fundamentals.

988
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,480
It's hard to pick one that.
You know is going to

989
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,920
underperform.
Based on based on fundamentals,

990
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:13,400
but I think, you know, if you
had to point the stick at

991
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:18,760
something and this is one that
has been come up in previous

992
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:22,720
years, I know when you've done
this exercise is iron ore.

993
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:26,240
You know, you can you can point
to iron ore and say, well,

994
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:30,880
Semandu is probably going to,
you know, come on stream, you

995
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:34,240
know, it's probably going to
start shipping next year.

996
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:40,200
And Chinese economy, yeah, it
does seem to have been defying

997
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:44,720
gravity for for for several
years in terms of the iron ore

998
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:45,840
price at least.
So.

999
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:49,080
So that's one, you know, not
that I'm predicting it to crash,

1000
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:51,640
but I think.
It's.

1001
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,880
Perhaps the the least good of,
you know, a basket of

1002
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:59,640
commodities which all look look
to have, you know, really good

1003
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:02,920
outlooks.
Thank you so much for your

1004
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:04,760
contributions this year, John.
We look forward to doing it

1005
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:07,600
again with you next year.
I'm sure your predictions will

1006
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:08,720
fare well like they did last
year.

1007
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,800
Fingers crossed, you know it's
always good to make.

1008
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:14,760
It's always fun to make
predictions, but you never want

1009
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:18,440
to put a time frame on them.
Chris Berry of House Mountain,

1010
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,160
thank you so much for joining us
for 2026 predictions.

1011
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:23,680
To kick right off, I'd love to
ask you what's your highest

1012
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:28,120
conviction, prediction for 26?
Well, look, I'm based in

1013
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:32,520
Washington, DC and it's no
surprise to, I think anybody,

1014
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:37,640
any of your listeners that
policy has driven, I think

1015
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:40,280
commodity performance, commodity
price and that's likely to

1016
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,320
continue.
I think one of the blind spots

1017
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,200
in Washington DC is that there's
been such a huge focus on the

1018
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:48,480
upstream portion of the metal
supply chain.

1019
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,160
Where is lithium going to come
from?

1020
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:52,440
Where is the copper going to
come from, etcetera, etcetera.

1021
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:54,600
Downstream has basically been
ignored.

1022
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,480
I think under the Biden
administration, there was a

1023
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:57,920
little bit more of a focus
there.

1024
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,840
And I think one of one of the
big surprises or perhaps a high

1025
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,200
conviction idea that I have is
that you're likely to see some

1026
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:08,880
of the capital in the United
States government that again was

1027
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:12,080
going into mining is now going
to take a closer look at

1028
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:15,680
midstream and downstream.
So cathode active materials,

1029
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:18,840
anode active materials.
Because honestly, at the end of

1030
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,400
the day, what's the point of
having all that mining capacity

1031
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:26,440
if you don't have the downstream
industries to feed it into?

1032
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:28,680
So I think that's one of the
things that I'm really focused

1033
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:31,360
on in 2026 that's a bit off the
beaten path.

1034
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:32,880
I like it Chris, how about your
most non?

1035
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:34,920
Consensus view for the coming
year.

1036
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:38,160
You know, look, I've been
focused on the.

1037
00:59:38,160 --> 00:59:40,520
Battery supply.
Chain for about the last 15

1038
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:44,360
years.
And the one thing that you just

1039
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,960
can never control is obviously
commodity price.

1040
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:51,960
And I sort of realized a few
years ago actually, I guess all

1041
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:55,520
I'm saying is a few years ago I
had realized one of the ways to

1042
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:59,720
try and insulate yourself from
lithium, say going from 8000 to

1043
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:03,960
$80,000 and then back down to 8
is trying to leverage technology

1044
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:05,840
right to protect the highs and
the lows.

1045
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:09,480
And so I guess from a non
consensus perspective, when you

1046
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:12,200
think about from a macro
perspective what's going on in

1047
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:15,760
the world today with respect to
electrification, with respect to

1048
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:17,880
defense spending and global
rearmament.

1049
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:21,840
I think you're going to see
technology from an extraction

1050
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,960
and a refining perspective come
back into vogue.

1051
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:29,720
You know, DLE direct lithium
extraction is probably the one

1052
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:31,960
that I think a lot of your
listeners are most familiar

1053
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:33,960
with.
But I would expect to see

1054
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:37,800
technology that leverages the
ability to extract and process

1055
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,800
minerals more effectively
permeate other metals and

1056
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:44,520
minerals if the the good old
tech extraction plays.

1057
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:46,240
They they are hot in a hot
market.

1058
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:50,040
Chris, I've got to ask you, what
is it that going to be the best

1059
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:51,360
performing commodity for the
year ahead?

1060
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:57,560
Look, you know.
That let's get the easy ones out

1061
01:00:57,560 --> 01:00:59,800
of the way, All right?
Maybe it's not easy, but

1062
01:00:59,800 --> 01:01:02,760
obviously, I think lithium and
copper are going to roar in

1063
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:06,560
2026, again, for obvious
reasons, Electrification

1064
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,480
primarily, and I think defense
spending secondarily.

1065
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:13,960
I would say that what I am most
excited about, and I'm not here

1066
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:15,960
to promise higher prices or
anything like that.

1067
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:18,520
I'm just simply saying I think
that they're of interest.

1068
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:23,200
Very interested in the magnesium
market, very interested in the

1069
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:27,520
bauxite market and supply chain.
And then just to kind of round

1070
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:31,320
it out, also taking a very
careful look at titanium and

1071
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:34,680
tungsten, OK?
And so those 4 metals all are

1072
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,720
critical plays or critical
pieces of both the

1073
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:41,520
electrification supply chain and
the rearmament supply chain.

1074
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:44,440
So, you know, are we going to
see prices, those materials go

1075
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:47,080
to the moon?
Honestly, probably not because

1076
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:50,480
they had a great run in 2025,
but I would expect to see

1077
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:55,120
pricing strength for some or all
of them into 2026 based on this

1078
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:57,960
very, very strong tailwind.
Yeah, yeah.

1079
01:01:58,080 --> 01:01:59,600
And if we flip that one on its
head.

1080
01:01:59,920 --> 01:02:01,080
Chris, what are going to be the
worst?

1081
01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:05,000
Performing commods well, I think
nickel.

1082
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:08,800
Is, is the one dog that that I
see out there.

1083
01:02:08,920 --> 01:02:12,120
Look, there's a lot of it
available.

1084
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:15,520
It's coming from Indonesia and
the Indonesians and the Chinese

1085
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:17,280
really dominate that supply
chain.

1086
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,080
And from my understanding, it
looks like there's much more to

1087
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:22,520
come or much more that could
come.

1088
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,600
When you take a step back and
think about the battery

1089
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:28,960
business, obviously again, it's
no secret that LFP has really

1090
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:32,440
taken an enormous amount of
market share away from nickel

1091
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:36,480
heavy cathodes and I don't see
that abating at all.

1092
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:39,520
So I would think that nickel
would would probably have a

1093
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:43,080
pretty sour year in 2026.
Poor nickel can't get a win.

1094
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,240
Chris, thanks a lot for.
Joining us and sharing your

1095
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:47,280
views, looking forward to seeing
how they fare over the coming

1096
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:48,960
year.
Thanks guys.

1097
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,240
Appreciate the opportunity, Mr.
Anthony Kavanaugh.

1098
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:53,120
It is great to have you back on
the show.

1099
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:56,080
Let's get into your 2026
predictions mate.

1100
01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:59,040
What is going to be what?
What is rather your highest

1101
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:00,880
conviction pick for the coming
year?

1102
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:04,080
Oh mate, it's hard not to double
down.

1103
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:06,920
On my pick from last year.
We just did the episode

1104
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:10,320
obviously on, on Havlop, but
it's hard not to go again with

1105
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:13,040
small cap copper.
I mean Develops had a Goodyear.

1106
01:03:13,160 --> 01:03:15,400
I think Develop could have a
Goodyear again as Woodlawn

1107
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:17,480
starts to ramp up, particularly
from March onwards.

1108
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:20,200
I mean, the feedback that I
received from the Havlor

1109
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:22,800
episode, you know, parties
associated with the deal,

1110
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:25,360
parties not associated with the
deal, I would say there's still

1111
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,200
a lot of interest in that asset
and how that deal transpires.

1112
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:31,160
And obviously the EGM vote is
end of January.

1113
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,400
So let's see if there's a
competitive bid.

1114
01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:35,160
If there's not, I'm not too
upset.

1115
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:37,240
I really think Sanfi is going to
be a great partner for them.

1116
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,600
Really excited about, you know,
having a working with Sanfi.

1117
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:44,480
So and and if that EGM vote goes
through positively, which I

1118
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:46,680
shouldn't would unless there's
an interloper, I would.

1119
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:49,280
Start to see.
The share price close that

1120
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,360
valuation gap as I as I lead to
on the on the on the podcast.

1121
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,120
I'd also say that I've got to
bring something new to the table

1122
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:58,640
as well.
So I would suggest that for

1123
01:03:58,640 --> 01:04:01,680
copper, I think the Cobar basin
remains extremely interesting to

1124
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,480
be now that Max been taken over.
I think it really are an appeal

1125
01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:07,160
probably are two really
interesting opportunities there.

1126
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:09,960
I would also say the likes of
Hot Chili and some of the South

1127
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,680
American players are going to
start to get more attention as

1128
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:14,120
the market starts to look down
the curve.

1129
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:17,040
Now that you know, maybe Capri's
been been sorted.

1130
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:20,160
The other one I would say, and I
know I've spoken to you guys

1131
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,000
about it's not necessarily a
pure copper play.

1132
01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:25,760
Is, is, is Sunstone in Ecuador?
I think some of the Ecuadorian

1133
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:27,520
names are starting to garner a
fair bit of interest.

1134
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:30,240
You've seen the neighboring
tight minerals receive some some

1135
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:32,280
corporate activity.
You've seen junior active in the

1136
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:34,160
region.
You've seen Soul gold receive a

1137
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:37,560
takeover from Jiangshi copper.
And even though Sunstone is not

1138
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:41,080
pure copper play, I mean, 25%
copper and gold, it's like 4

1139
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:43,880
million ounces of gold and
300,000 tons of copper.

1140
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:46,600
I think that's extremely
interesting for a cab of just

1141
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:50,040
over 100 million bucks.
So yeah, I know there's a few

1142
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:51,800
upset shareholders because
they've raised capital, but I

1143
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:53,480
think that puts them in a good
place for next year.

1144
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:55,440
And I don't know, they've been
talking about corporate

1145
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:57,760
activity, but I would suspect
that some of that comes to

1146
01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:02,320
fruition in 2026.
Great one, Kev, couple Ding Ding

1147
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:02,960
Dings in there.
What?

1148
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:08,760
About what about the most non
consensus call for for 26?

1149
01:05:09,400 --> 01:05:11,360
Yeah, this is a tough one.
I mean, you know, I came to the

1150
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:13,600
table banging.
On on mints last year and that

1151
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:14,840
was when no one else wanted to
own it.

1152
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:16,480
So that was very non consensus
last year.

1153
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:19,600
Yeah, I'm not sure if my pick
this year is as non consensus,

1154
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:22,040
but I was happy with the mins
call and that is probably the

1155
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:24,080
energy I think has a Goodyear in
2026.

1156
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:26,720
I mean it's traded sideways the
last few years probably been one

1157
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:29,640
of the most underperforming
sectors are pretty optimistic on

1158
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,680
energy, particularly in the back
half of next year.

1159
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:34,640
I think that with the midterm
elections coming up, I would

1160
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:37,200
suggest that maybe the US and
the Saudis have a bit of a pact

1161
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:41,040
and we've seen some increases in
production via OPEC for the last

1162
01:05:41,040 --> 01:05:42,680
few months.
I would say that by the middle

1163
01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:44,480
of next year, maybe those
productions start to go the

1164
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:47,720
other way and we start to see a
more balanced supply demand

1165
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:50,320
situation for oil and gas,
particularly oil.

1166
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:53,440
I'm really optimistic on.
So yeah, that that would be my

1167
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:54,960
pick.
And if I had to pick some some

1168
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:58,040
names to associated with that,
I'd say like a Kroon, I'd say

1169
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:00,400
Santos.
I would say, you know anything

1170
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:03,760
with quasi oil exposure via LNG
as well, like a beach or an

1171
01:06:03,760 --> 01:06:07,960
Equus, even like a comet Ridge.
I would say I'm pretty excited

1172
01:06:07,960 --> 01:06:09,640
about.
I'm with you there, Kev.

1173
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:11,440
A few more Ding Ding Dings
spaced in.

1174
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:13,680
There, just keep dinging the
whole screw again.

1175
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:16,960
How about you?
The best performing.

1176
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:19,800
Commodity, if we sort of put
energy to aside for a moment,

1177
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:23,600
mate, Yeah, I can't double up on
copper energy last.

1178
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:26,160
Year, I think I said Henry
Harbin, I said probably coke and

1179
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:27,960
coal.
I'm still optimistic coke and

1180
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:30,200
coal, but I will come with
something fresh and that is

1181
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:32,000
sponge main.
I think I said to you guys

1182
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,840
before that I think there's
gonna be some fund managers that

1183
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:36,480
say it's the best.
Some fund managers say it's the

1184
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:37,920
worst.
I I think it's gonna be a pretty

1185
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:39,880
binary call.
I'm sitting with the balls on

1186
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:42,840
this one.
I I do believe that, you know,

1187
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:45,320
the, the surprise to the upside
that we've seen energy storage,

1188
01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:46,880
it's something I've been
thinking about and talking about

1189
01:06:46,880 --> 01:06:48,840
for probably the last two years.
So I was probably a bit too

1190
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:52,120
early on the energy storage I
guess demand story, but I do

1191
01:06:52,120 --> 01:06:55,080
feel like it's going to come
through in 2026 means it's

1192
01:06:55,080 --> 01:06:57,160
obviously a way to play.
It's a little bit more diluted

1193
01:06:57,160 --> 01:06:59,920
than it was given the deal we've
done with POSCO, but probably

1194
01:06:59,920 --> 01:07:02,360
the one I continue to see and
I'll re bang the table on this

1195
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:03,640
because I'll bang the table a
few times.

1196
01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:06,880
It's is a lever up the merge
signer and Piedmont entity.

1197
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:09,160
I think that's probably still
unappreciated by the market.

1198
01:07:09,160 --> 01:07:11,680
I don't think there's as many
sell side covering it as there

1199
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:14,800
could be just under a billion
cap at the moment or a billion

1200
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:16,560
EV.
It's probably got a third or

1201
01:07:16,760 --> 01:07:19,040
sorry, 1/4 of the production of
what Kilbra does and trades

1202
01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:22,440
about, you know, 110th of the EV
of what Kilbra does.

1203
01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:25,440
It's currently net cash.
It's in a pretty interviewable

1204
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:28,120
position because it's just gone
above their break even position.

1205
01:07:28,680 --> 01:07:31,520
Brownfield expansion at NAL.
Greenfield opportunities.

1206
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:34,320
With.
Moble and Hawaia and Carolina

1207
01:07:34,880 --> 01:07:36,320
and I'll see it as really well
placed.

1208
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:39,040
So I could even throw in the pun
that it's leveraged to the

1209
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:42,560
lifting cross.
That's no, that's not, that's

1210
01:07:42,560 --> 01:07:45,480
not allowed.
That's bad.

1211
01:07:45,880 --> 01:07:46,840
That's.
Worse than my?

1212
01:07:47,520 --> 01:07:49,520
Anthony Havelah.
Oh, I know.

1213
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:51,960
Yeah, I've had a few of those.
OK.

1214
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:57,200
So what about the the the the
worst performing commodity Kev?

1215
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:00,720
Well, this is this is tough for
a commodity bull like myself.

1216
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:04,280
I do have some friends that work
in iron ore and they have been

1217
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:07,120
quite upset that everyone beats
on iron ore and it is a very

1218
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:08,840
easy choice with some and do
ramping up.

1219
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:11,120
But I'll, I'll, I won't choose
iron ore.

1220
01:08:11,720 --> 01:08:14,440
I think last year was again with
an absolute Gimme and I think it

1221
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:17,399
said Illumina and what Lumina's
halved since we recorded the

1222
01:08:17,399 --> 01:08:19,359
episode.
So I was happy to call that one.

1223
01:08:19,359 --> 01:08:22,520
Well, I'll go with another niche
commodity and this time I'll say

1224
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:24,560
zinc.
Now it's not a commodity I've

1225
01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:27,520
done a heap of work on, but
close to $1.50 I'd say.

1226
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:28,920
I think price is pretty
elevated.

1227
01:08:29,359 --> 01:08:32,279
I would say there's been a fair
few mines that have come on

1228
01:08:32,279 --> 01:08:35,760
stream in 2024 that will
continue to ramp up over 2026.

1229
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:39,680
Demand is usually pretty muted,
usually grows at 1 to 2% per

1230
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:42,319
annum.
And another fun fact about zinc

1231
01:08:42,319 --> 01:08:44,960
is that about 30% of zinc
production is associated with

1232
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:47,399
silver and lead.
And obviously with silver

1233
01:08:47,399 --> 01:08:50,840
hitting all time highs, you know
silver is going to provide a

1234
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,000
burn for most zinc mines and
you're not necessarily going to

1235
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,319
be switching off those zinc
mines, which you possibly should

1236
01:08:55,319 --> 01:08:57,479
from a supply situation because
you're going to want those zinc,

1237
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:01,760
those silver credits.
So that's my, I guess, niche

1238
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:03,160
commodity time to perform next
year.

1239
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:06,200
First time sings.
Got to mention there we go Kev

1240
01:09:06,200 --> 01:09:07,600
as.
Always great to chat, you've

1241
01:09:07,600 --> 01:09:10,640
given us a whole host of ideas
in there that I'm sure the money

1242
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:13,160
miners will love, so thank you.
Cheers again boys, Thanks for

1243
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:14,920
having me on and Merry Christmas
Sammy.

1244
01:09:14,920 --> 01:09:16,600
Berish in the.
Studio, thanks for joining us,

1245
01:09:16,600 --> 01:09:17,359
mate.
Pleasure.

1246
01:09:17,359 --> 01:09:19,319
To be here, always happy to come
down and have a chat to you

1247
01:09:19,319 --> 01:09:21,359
guys.
We are looking forward to

1248
01:09:21,359 --> 01:09:26,439
hearing your predictions for.
For 2026, Sammy, so 2025 was a

1249
01:09:26,439 --> 01:09:28,720
big year, outstanding returns
for the fund.

1250
01:09:28,720 --> 01:09:32,000
But as you sort of said, just
before January 1, the scoreboard

1251
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:34,160
is 0 again.
So what is the highest

1252
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:38,120
conviction prediction for 2026?
You had to scratch my head on

1253
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:39,560
this one a bit because you've
got, you know, a.

1254
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:42,319
Bucket of decent ideas, but
trying to pick one from the pack

1255
01:09:42,319 --> 01:09:47,000
is always difficult to do.
But I think I think I'll pick

1256
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:49,920
one that a lot of people would
have heard of, but probably not

1257
01:09:50,319 --> 01:09:52,760
our support, You know, You know,
he's more their older context

1258
01:09:52,760 --> 01:09:54,880
than what they're doing next.
And that's Mount Gibbs and Iron.

1259
01:09:55,480 --> 01:10:00,840
So used to be used to be a an.
Iron ore producer, but they're

1260
01:10:00,840 --> 01:10:03,520
all finished.
Up there at cool an island a bit

1261
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:05,960
unceremonious because of the pit
collapsed again.

1262
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,720
So that brought knocked about 18
months off the end of the mine

1263
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:14,240
life unfortunately.
But what is not widely known is

1264
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:17,720
the OR widely acknowledged is
that they actually have their

1265
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:20,640
foot on 50% of the Tanami gold
project.

1266
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:25,880
So they, they're turning into a
gold company and yeah, that that

1267
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:28,680
project had a updated resource
announced the other day.

1268
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:35,320
They've got 2.8 million oz at
about just under 3 grams a ton.

1269
01:10:35,920 --> 01:10:38,840
So you know, back of the
envelope type numbers and this

1270
01:10:38,840 --> 01:10:41,280
is very preliminary early days,
but they've got a line of sight

1271
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,560
of a so a line of sight on a
project that could do, you know,

1272
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:49,600
150 to 200,000 oz per annum
there for for 10 years plus.

1273
01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:56,000
And if you back out the the cash
from Mount Gibson's market cap

1274
01:10:56,240 --> 01:10:58,760
also, you know, you adjust the
fact there's 50 million to go

1275
01:10:58,760 --> 01:11:01,400
out to pay for the their share
of Tanami once that approved,

1276
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,800
plus they've got some rehab and
and repair to do it at cool an

1277
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:07,120
island.
You know, the enterprise value

1278
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:11,320
of the company at the moment is
on a 6 is about $60 billion on a

1279
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:14,880
post acquisition basis.
So, you know, that plus the

1280
01:11:14,880 --> 01:11:17,320
actual, you know, Tanami
Resources, which is still listed

1281
01:11:17,640 --> 01:11:21,640
is about $120 million for, you
know, for for companies which

1282
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:24,920
combined would have, you know,
circa 150 to 200,000 ounces of

1283
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:27,640
production in Australia.
Reasonably low cost.

1284
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:30,640
Yeah, I think it's, it looks
pretty reasonable.

1285
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:32,960
And you know, obviously these
guys have got lots of cash, so

1286
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,320
they probably don't need, you
know, don't need to raise any

1287
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,920
equity to to do it.
So that's the one.

1288
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:40,480
Great.
Sammy, what about the most non

1289
01:11:40,480 --> 01:11:43,080
consensus?
Prediction scratch my head

1290
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:44,320
around about that one a bit as
well.

1291
01:11:44,320 --> 01:11:47,600
I think I'll.
I think I might have to go down

1292
01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:49,800
the currency path because, you
know, when you're modeling these

1293
01:11:49,800 --> 01:11:52,160
things, the currency is just as
important as your commodity

1294
01:11:52,160 --> 01:11:54,280
price.
But looking at the outlook for

1295
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:58,200
interest rates in the US versus
Australia, I reckon that the

1296
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:01,520
Aussie dollar could get to sort
of 75 over the course of

1297
01:12:02,160 --> 01:12:06,000
calendar 26, which is, you know,
probably not that there's a bit

1298
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:09,040
of a headwind, I suppose, for
earnings for producing for

1299
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:11,080
commodity companies.
But at the same time, if the

1300
01:12:11,080 --> 01:12:13,720
Aussie dollar is going up means
the US dollar's going down,

1301
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:15,960
which probably means commodity
prices are going up.

1302
01:12:15,960 --> 01:12:20,360
So could be a 0 sum game.
But I don't think we're going to

1303
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:22,200
get any more rate cuts for the
next 12 months.

1304
01:12:22,200 --> 01:12:24,840
I reckon the RBA is probably
done.

1305
01:12:26,040 --> 01:12:28,480
Michelle Bullock there, she's,
she's not one for turning that

1306
01:12:28,480 --> 01:12:29,760
woman.
She knows exactly what she's

1307
01:12:29,760 --> 01:12:31,560
doing.
And if she thinks inflation's

1308
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:33,200
too high, there's some problems
there.

1309
01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:35,640
I don't think there's any more
cuts coming, which is

1310
01:12:36,200 --> 01:12:37,800
unfortunate, but it is what it
is.

1311
01:12:37,800 --> 01:12:40,040
Whereas I think they probably
are, you know, another cut or

1312
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:42,440
two to come in the US So, you
know, we should see the Aussie

1313
01:12:42,440 --> 01:12:45,520
dollar rise as a result.
Yeah, that's a good, good shout

1314
01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:46,960
there, Sammy.
And how about the best?

1315
01:12:46,960 --> 01:12:51,920
Performing commodity, I'm going
to have to go with uranium on.

1316
01:12:51,920 --> 01:12:56,200
This one and the reason for that
is that, you know, there's a

1317
01:12:56,200 --> 01:12:59,040
fundamental story which you guys
have discussed, you know, at

1318
01:12:59,040 --> 01:13:01,280
length and your listeners would
be should be well across.

1319
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:07,840
But I suspect that uranium might
be the next metal. the US

1320
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:11,520
underwrites the price of base
like they've done with rare

1321
01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:14,880
earths.
You know, nuclear is central to

1322
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:21,040
their national security, energy
security, AI growth ambitions.

1323
01:13:21,760 --> 01:13:25,400
So I wouldn't be surprised if if
uranium is the next metal to get

1324
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:27,600
basically underwritten by the US
government.

1325
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:30,040
And you know, we should see
something similar to what we saw

1326
01:13:30,040 --> 01:13:32,640
in rare earths if that was to
transpire.

1327
01:13:32,640 --> 01:13:34,640
And if I'm wrong, if that
doesn't happen, well, the

1328
01:13:34,640 --> 01:13:36,880
fundamentals I still think look
reasonably good.

1329
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:39,920
When we do the scores in a
year's time, should we look at

1330
01:13:39,920 --> 01:13:43,560
spot or term?
Stick with spot, you know and

1331
01:13:43,560 --> 01:13:45,360
everybody says 0.
There's no volume traded there,

1332
01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:47,760
but you know, whatever the
equities move on spot, you know,

1333
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:50,120
so that's that's, you know,
that's important.

1334
01:13:50,440 --> 01:13:52,520
Good stuff.
And the flip side of that one?

1335
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:56,960
Worst performer?
Worst performer I think.

1336
01:13:56,960 --> 01:14:00,200
Last year I said, I said nickel,
which, you know, wasn't, you

1337
01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:01,520
know, the price had already
fallen.

1338
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:03,200
So it wasn't necessarily because
I was bearish.

1339
01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:05,040
I just thought everything else
was probably going to do better.

1340
01:14:05,440 --> 01:14:08,240
So for the same on the same
rationale, I'm probably going to

1341
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:11,120
go with oil, which pretty beaten
up where it is.

1342
01:14:11,720 --> 01:14:17,480
But China's been stockpiling
maybe an extra million barrels a

1343
01:14:17,480 --> 01:14:20,320
day over and above what they
actually need or use.

1344
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:22,360
So they've been building
stockpiles for a while.

1345
01:14:22,920 --> 01:14:27,800
Assuming those stockpiles start
to hit tank tops or cabin tops,

1346
01:14:27,800 --> 01:14:31,040
wherever they're sticking this
stuff, you know, that's a lot of

1347
01:14:31,040 --> 01:14:33,440
buying to come out of the
market.

1348
01:14:33,440 --> 01:14:36,080
And I think the, the price will
struggle thereafter.

1349
01:14:36,520 --> 01:14:39,360
And in any which case, you know,
I think that, you know, between

1350
01:14:39,400 --> 01:14:43,360
OPEC sort of fighting for market
share and whatnot, I, I just

1351
01:14:43,360 --> 01:14:46,240
don't see much upside to it to
the oil price, even though

1352
01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:48,880
arguably it's supported by the
cost curve to below.

1353
01:14:48,880 --> 01:14:51,280
But I think there should be
other metals that do a bit

1354
01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:53,120
better or other commodities that
do a bit better.

1355
01:14:54,480 --> 01:14:57,040
Brilliant Sammy, we love your
predictions.

1356
01:14:57,040 --> 01:14:58,800
And look forward to doing it
again with you next year.

1357
01:14:59,400 --> 01:15:04,280
No, it's like I'm right, Sam.
Plays of olive resource.

1358
01:15:04,360 --> 01:15:06,120
Capital, thank you very much for
joining us.

1359
01:15:06,120 --> 01:15:08,680
We're excited to hear your
predictions for the upcoming

1360
01:15:08,680 --> 01:15:10,840
year.
Sam, what have you got as your

1361
01:15:10,840 --> 01:15:14,320
most your highest conviction
rather prediction for the year?

1362
01:15:15,840 --> 01:15:18,800
Yeah, so I actually have a name.
Specifically, it's a private

1363
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:20,680
company.
Today we're going to list this

1364
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:23,040
company in oh, that's March,
April period.

1365
01:15:23,840 --> 01:15:27,760
And you, you, you're going to
hear about this.

1366
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:31,200
It's the largest exploration
package in Uruguay country

1367
01:15:31,200 --> 01:15:34,120
that's not very well known.
The company is called Sun Valley

1368
01:15:34,120 --> 01:15:38,440
Minerals and it's effectively a
mirror image of the geology in

1369
01:15:38,440 --> 01:15:41,960
Namibia, which was many multi
million ounce deposits.

1370
01:15:41,960 --> 01:15:45,280
We think we have something that
could potentially target those

1371
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:48,240
type of deposits.
And so far, the team has done an

1372
01:15:48,240 --> 01:15:51,880
exceptional job amassing the
best parcels of London along the

1373
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:57,440
country, proving that we have
visible golden surface Frenching

1374
01:15:57,480 --> 01:16:00,280
confirm all of that.
And the company is getting ready

1375
01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:04,240
for its major drill program in
Q1 of 2026, right on time for

1376
01:16:04,240 --> 01:16:05,760
the listing.
So I think this is going to be

1377
01:16:05,760 --> 01:16:08,440
one of the most exciting stories
in the market for next year.

1378
01:16:09,480 --> 01:16:11,520
Appreciate the the the the pick
Sam.

1379
01:16:11,680 --> 01:16:13,960
How about your most non
consensus prediction?

1380
01:16:15,680 --> 01:16:18,360
I think my most I don't.
Know if this is non consensus

1381
01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:22,400
but I actually think the global
economy does well in 2026.

1382
01:16:23,400 --> 01:16:25,240
People keep expecting a
recession.

1383
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:28,960
I think if you look at the macro
data globally, liquidity

1384
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:30,880
injections continue to be
strong.

1385
01:16:31,400 --> 01:16:35,000
Fiscal, monetary, fiscal policy
is going to be expansionary more

1386
01:16:35,000 --> 01:16:38,000
than it has been this year.
Pmis are starting to pick up.

1387
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:41,040
So I think we see sort of like a
broadening of the economic

1388
01:16:41,040 --> 01:16:44,640
momentum in 2026.
Yeah, yeah, I'd call that non

1389
01:16:44,640 --> 01:16:45,880
consensus.
I think there's a lot of

1390
01:16:45,880 --> 01:16:47,320
bearish.
Sort of sentiment around where

1391
01:16:47,320 --> 01:16:50,040
we are at least.
How about the the commodity to

1392
01:16:50,040 --> 01:16:53,680
benefit the most on the back of
that stronger economic

1393
01:16:53,680 --> 01:16:55,400
surrounding?
Yeah.

1394
01:16:55,400 --> 01:16:57,480
And I think that's exactly where
this comes through.

1395
01:16:57,480 --> 01:17:02,320
Is I think we see a major
broadening of the sort of like

1396
01:17:02,320 --> 01:17:06,800
commodity rally more into oil,
which is I think my #1

1397
01:17:06,800 --> 01:17:10,040
prediction for next year, but
also into coal, maybe not so

1398
01:17:10,040 --> 01:17:12,200
much iron ore because of the
supply fundamentals that we've

1399
01:17:12,200 --> 01:17:14,360
seen this year.
But I think we just see a big

1400
01:17:14,360 --> 01:17:18,120
broadening into the industrial
metals, coal, oil, energy as a

1401
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,520
whole, and, you know, just
everything that's directly

1402
01:17:20,520 --> 01:17:22,720
exposed to expanding global
economy.

1403
01:17:23,680 --> 01:17:25,760
And the flip side, Sam, the West
performer.

1404
01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:30,240
I'm going to go on a big limb.
Here, and I'm going to say

1405
01:17:30,240 --> 01:17:35,440
silver.
And the reason is as this kind

1406
01:17:35,440 --> 01:17:38,880
of like expansion into all the
other commodities takes place, I

1407
01:17:38,880 --> 01:17:42,560
think gold starts being the
leader and silver by definition

1408
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:45,520
being such a speculative market
that's linked to the momentum in

1409
01:17:45,920 --> 01:17:47,680
in gold.
I think it may lose some of that

1410
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:50,240
energy and momentum.
And if you look at the ratio of

1411
01:17:50,240 --> 01:17:53,320
gold to silver, which people
talk about, it's should go to

1412
01:17:53,320 --> 01:17:55,480
100.
If you look at the last, since

1413
01:17:55,480 --> 01:18:00,920
we have real tangible data, it's
kind of close to the medium to

1414
01:18:00,920 --> 01:18:04,160
the medium.
So I think we are sort of

1415
01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:06,280
already there.
The big part of the rally has

1416
01:18:06,280 --> 01:18:09,760
happened, and any weakness in
gold will translate in stronger,

1417
01:18:09,800 --> 01:18:11,600
you know, further downside in
silver.

1418
01:18:12,920 --> 01:18:14,600
Fantastic, that is.
Yeah, that's a.

1419
01:18:14,600 --> 01:18:15,840
Bit off the beaten track that
one we've.

1420
01:18:15,840 --> 01:18:18,360
Got a lot more silver bulls that
have perked up in the last

1421
01:18:18,360 --> 01:18:21,120
couple weeks, so looking forward
to seeing how your bets fare

1422
01:18:21,120 --> 01:18:23,200
over the coming year.
And thanks again for joining us.

1423
01:18:24,400 --> 01:18:26,400
Thank you so much, Christopher
Schmidt.

1424
01:18:26,560 --> 01:18:28,280
Incommet Capital, I've been
trying to pin you down.

1425
01:18:28,280 --> 01:18:31,240
Forever you finally, you finally
accepted my invitation to

1426
01:18:31,240 --> 01:18:34,440
participate in our fund manager
predictions episode.

1427
01:18:34,600 --> 01:18:37,120
I've got to ask the question
what is your highest conviction

1428
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:43,360
prediction for 2026?
So I think for.

1429
01:18:43,960 --> 01:18:49,000
For 2026, I mean we, we will see
a year of phantom build out in

1430
01:18:49,000 --> 01:18:56,200
the NI in the AI infrastructure
we see in the USA plant CapEx

1431
01:18:56,200 --> 01:19:01,480
infrastructure for around 600 or
500 billion U.S. dollars and

1432
01:19:01,480 --> 01:19:05,480
then even have China with just
like 50 to 100 billion for data

1433
01:19:05,480 --> 01:19:07,400
centres and then GRID
connections.

1434
01:19:08,160 --> 01:19:15,400
And these hyperscalers like Meta
and NVIDIA and and Google and

1435
01:19:15,400 --> 01:19:20,600
Amazon, they are just trying to.
Build a narrative where they can

1436
01:19:20,600 --> 01:19:23,040
justify.
These massive expenditures and

1437
01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:25,920
and we in income and we don't
really see the return on

1438
01:19:25,920 --> 01:19:31,360
investment because the problem
is not the building of the data

1439
01:19:31,360 --> 01:19:35,200
centres, it's really to get them
onto the grid to connect them.

1440
01:19:35,720 --> 01:19:38,880
So there's like massive lead
times on Transformers and crit

1441
01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:42,280
connections.
And this is where we will see

1442
01:19:42,560 --> 01:19:45,200
just like a waste of money in
the end in data centres.

1443
01:19:45,200 --> 01:19:46,800
But they are not coming to the
market.

1444
01:19:48,120 --> 01:19:54,680
And this will certainly, let's
say question the AI business

1445
01:19:54,680 --> 01:19:59,160
model in 2026.
And we might see also a lot of

1446
01:19:59,160 --> 01:20:02,320
funds flow flowing out of the
sector because they realize

1447
01:20:02,320 --> 01:20:05,160
there's an overspending, it's
too expensive to to build all

1448
01:20:05,160 --> 01:20:08,720
the.
The infrastructure and yeah, so

1449
01:20:08,720 --> 01:20:11,720
this was certainly certainly one
of our most non consensus

1450
01:20:11,720 --> 01:20:15,480
prediction in 2026 in our eyes
beautiful.

1451
01:20:15,480 --> 01:20:17,720
I hope some of that money finds
its way towards the.

1452
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:21,280
Mining space.
So second question is what is

1453
01:20:21,280 --> 01:20:24,200
going to be the the most non
consensus call that that you and

1454
01:20:24,200 --> 01:20:25,560
the team have for the coming
year?

1455
01:20:29,120 --> 01:20:32,280
I think it's it's related a.
Little bit to the AI, as you

1456
01:20:32,280 --> 01:20:36,360
just said, you know there will
be some money flowing out of the

1457
01:20:36,480 --> 01:20:40,120
tech industry or the tech sector
into mining.

1458
01:20:41,600 --> 01:20:45,040
We call it capital rotation.
So we will see the money flowing

1459
01:20:45,040 --> 01:20:52,080
into hard assets like mining,
metals, oil and gas industry and

1460
01:20:53,160 --> 01:20:56,600
also into China.
I still believe that Chinese

1461
01:20:56,600 --> 01:21:02,640
companies are set up for like
quite a big growth path in 2026

1462
01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:07,440
and 27 because the stimulus
which was initiated 2 years ago

1463
01:21:07,440 --> 01:21:12,080
is now finally hitting, hitting
the the income statements from

1464
01:21:12,080 --> 01:21:16,080
the Chinese companies and the
Chinese government really

1465
01:21:16,080 --> 01:21:19,640
focused on like manufacturing
local infrastructure and high

1466
01:21:19,640 --> 01:21:23,440
tech supply chains and to
establish also new trade

1467
01:21:23,440 --> 01:21:26,560
partners.
And this will now finally end up

1468
01:21:26,600 --> 01:21:29,880
and show up in the earnings.
And the focus here is of course,

1469
01:21:29,880 --> 01:21:33,120
electric vehicles.
I mean, we see the success of

1470
01:21:33,120 --> 01:21:38,040
BYD in Europe.
We just saw like the new Xiaomi

1471
01:21:38,040 --> 01:21:42,160
electric vehicles being
introduced to the European

1472
01:21:42,160 --> 01:21:47,280
market like they are so low cost
produced extremely high quality

1473
01:21:47,280 --> 01:21:52,360
and that and consumer is looking
for cheap electric vehicles with

1474
01:21:52,360 --> 01:21:55,640
like a good range and good
service And nobody is really

1475
01:21:55,640 --> 01:22:01,000
interested in let's say the more
expensive high end performance

1476
01:22:01,000 --> 01:22:04,800
electric vehicles.
So the Chinese equity market

1477
01:22:04,800 --> 01:22:07,680
certainly could be a very
attractive there you play in

1478
01:22:07,680 --> 01:22:13,880
2026 and 2027 and the the best.
Performing commodity.

1479
01:22:15,800 --> 01:22:18,880
I mean, I'm not sure.
Most people probably say.

1480
01:22:18,920 --> 01:22:25,000
Lithium and and copper, but for
us the big sleeper trade in 2026

1481
01:22:25,000 --> 01:22:30,200
is phosphate, especially the
igneous phosphate which is

1482
01:22:30,840 --> 01:22:35,520
suitable for the battery grade
purified phosphoric acid.

1483
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:42,320
I think the the impression in
the in the resource sector is

1484
01:22:42,320 --> 01:22:46,280
that phosphate is mostly
agricultural product and really

1485
01:22:46,280 --> 01:22:50,440
as a fertilizer.
But if you look at the lithium

1486
01:22:50,440 --> 01:22:54,080
iron phosphate batteries which
are taking over now, the

1487
01:22:54,600 --> 01:22:59,600
electric vehicles, the large
scale energy storage and they

1488
01:22:59,600 --> 01:23:02,640
are replacing the nickel,
manganese, cobalt batteries.

1489
01:23:03,080 --> 01:23:05,000
I think that's not really
understood.

1490
01:23:05,000 --> 01:23:09,120
Everybody is focusing on
lithium, but no one is focusing

1491
01:23:09,120 --> 01:23:14,680
on the PE on the phosphate.
And I think we will see a quite

1492
01:23:14,680 --> 01:23:20,360
high interest in in 2026 there.
The issue with this commodity is

1493
01:23:20,360 --> 01:23:25,160
that the igneous deposits are
are quite rare.

1494
01:23:25,240 --> 01:23:27,320
Yeah.
And you have a lot of

1495
01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:34,800
sentimentary phosphate, but it's
mostly dirty phosphate with

1496
01:23:34,800 --> 01:23:42,760
heavy metals, manganese and even
some radioactivity and only 5% I

1497
01:23:42,760 --> 01:23:46,400
think of the phosphate
production currently for battery

1498
01:23:46,400 --> 01:23:49,920
grade comes from igneous and
there's certainly an interest in

1499
01:23:49,920 --> 01:23:53,720
getting this high purity
primary, primary production for

1500
01:23:53,720 --> 01:23:58,840
phosphate going forward.
China of course is dominating

1501
01:23:58,840 --> 01:24:02,160
the market.
They have restrictions on

1502
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:06,000
exporting the LFP technology
offshore.

1503
01:24:06,400 --> 01:24:08,680
So they, they want to have the
dominance.

1504
01:24:09,520 --> 01:24:12,000
The big car manufacturers are
already using this battery

1505
01:24:12,000 --> 01:24:17,840
technology, BYD, even Tesla and
then the big Western companies

1506
01:24:17,840 --> 01:24:20,400
like Celantis, they are looking
also, of course, getting into

1507
01:24:20,400 --> 01:24:24,200
this battery technology because
it's cheaper, it has a good

1508
01:24:24,200 --> 01:24:29,200
range, it's more safe and you
don't need the high performance

1509
01:24:29,200 --> 01:24:34,160
NMC batteries going forward.
So phosphate for us is the new

1510
01:24:34,160 --> 01:24:37,320
lithium.
Unfortunately, there's not many

1511
01:24:37,320 --> 01:24:40,800
mining equities where you can
play that game.

1512
01:24:41,320 --> 01:24:43,080
It's like a handful of
companies.

1513
01:24:43,880 --> 01:24:47,040
I think there's like one company
in Australia who does like

1514
01:24:47,040 --> 01:24:51,960
direct or shipping to China, but
otherwise it's not integrated.

1515
01:24:51,960 --> 01:24:54,280
They went broke.
They went broke.

1516
01:24:54,320 --> 01:24:56,120
Centrex.
Yeah, no, they're they're gone.

1517
01:24:56,720 --> 01:24:59,800
There's a private. 1 NW
phosphate John Cotter.

1518
01:24:59,840 --> 01:25:03,960
He's listening, so that's the
integrated.

1519
01:25:04,120 --> 01:25:07,280
One I think is.
Certainly attractive fully

1520
01:25:07,280 --> 01:25:10,120
integrated producer for battery
grade.

1521
01:25:10,120 --> 01:25:12,840
Yeah, yeah.
That's that's not a prediction

1522
01:25:12,840 --> 01:25:15,680
we've had before.
Christopher And if you flip that

1523
01:25:15,680 --> 01:25:18,720
one on its head getting bearish
now what is going to be the

1524
01:25:18,720 --> 01:25:22,840
worst performing commodity?
I mean, if I'm bullish on.

1525
01:25:22,840 --> 01:25:26,080
Phosphate and.
Lithium, I mean you should be

1526
01:25:26,080 --> 01:25:32,040
bearish on nickel and cobalt.
On one side we know that the

1527
01:25:32,040 --> 01:25:35,120
nickel market has been flooded
by Indonesia for the last five

1528
01:25:35,120 --> 01:25:39,720
years and they have some, some
issues currently they are

1529
01:25:39,920 --> 01:25:42,480
reducing the national production
quota.

1530
01:25:43,480 --> 01:25:46,600
They are enforcing more the
environmental regulations in

1531
01:25:46,600 --> 01:25:50,800
Indonesia because they had some
you know tailing stem issues

1532
01:25:50,800 --> 01:25:56,200
there and so on.
They still prohibit deep sea

1533
01:25:56,280 --> 01:26:00,600
tailing storage in Indonesia.
So you would of course expect

1534
01:26:01,440 --> 01:26:05,720
supply cuts coming from
Indonesia, but I don't believe

1535
01:26:05,720 --> 01:26:09,720
that the Indonesian government
will continue holding up these

1536
01:26:09,720 --> 01:26:13,200
restrictions because they know
they have the dominant position

1537
01:26:13,200 --> 01:26:18,080
in the market through the nickel
PIC iron and the mixed hydroxide

1538
01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:23,120
precipitate production and they
could change again.

1539
01:26:23,120 --> 01:26:26,160
They just apply relatively
quickly.

1540
01:26:26,160 --> 01:26:31,440
So even if nickel is it's
bearish based on these

1541
01:26:31,440 --> 01:26:34,880
restrictions in Indonesia, I
think if they need needed, they

1542
01:26:34,880 --> 01:26:38,760
could change it again.
So I'm I think Nicola will be

1543
01:26:38,760 --> 01:26:43,600
still a tough play going forward
since Indonesia can yeah, can

1544
01:26:43,600 --> 01:26:46,120
just flap their market again if
they want to.

1545
01:26:46,360 --> 01:26:49,640
Yeah, brilliant, Christopher.
I've, I've.

1546
01:26:50,160 --> 01:26:52,480
Really enjoyed your
contributions and I I hope you

1547
01:26:52,480 --> 01:26:55,680
participate again next year.
Yeah, of course.

1548
01:26:55,760 --> 01:26:58,640
Happy to participate.
And and hopefully the phosphate

1549
01:26:58,640 --> 01:27:02,040
play works out next year.
That was that was unreal, the

1550
01:27:02,040 --> 01:27:05,600
first half of part.
One of our fund manager

1551
01:27:05,600 --> 01:27:08,600
predictions for 2026.
We've got so many more to go,

1552
01:27:08,600 --> 01:27:09,960
don't we?
We actually haven't even

1553
01:27:09,960 --> 01:27:11,840
recorded the.
Other ones yet we haven't even

1554
01:27:11,840 --> 01:27:13,200
recorded.
Them, but they are coming

1555
01:27:13,200 --> 01:27:15,280
through the schedule very.
Soon, money miners.

1556
01:27:16,080 --> 01:27:19,120
A massive thank you to our
wicked partners, Sandy Ground

1557
01:27:19,120 --> 01:27:21,120
Support, Intralinks.
Check them out.

1558
01:27:21,120 --> 01:27:22,920
Focus the platform by market
tech.

1559
01:27:22,920 --> 01:27:25,200
You should do it over my
shoulder most times.

1560
01:27:25,760 --> 01:27:29,040
We've also got a big thank you
to make to exceed capital and

1561
01:27:29,040 --> 01:27:31,000
last but not least, switch
technologies.

1562
01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:33,440
Check out our local engineers
right here in North Bridge.

1563
01:27:33,440 --> 01:27:35,560
Mate, Goodaroo money minus
goodaroo.

1564
01:27:37,000 --> 01:27:39,880
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

1565
01:27:40,200 --> 01:27:42,280
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

1566
01:27:42,280 --> 01:27:44,920
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out

1567
01:27:44,920 --> 01:27:45,400
disclaimer.