30 Fundies’ Highest Conviction Trades for 2026 (Part 2)

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30 fund managers.
The other half of them are

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ahead.
This episode is a monster again.

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Amazing insights.
I can't wait to listen to them

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again because we've already
recorded them.

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How good were the first half of
the fund manager predictions for

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2026?
They were incredible mate, and

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Part 2 just as good.
We've got a lot on the docket

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though, so we've got to run
through things. 30 fund

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managers, the other half of them
far ahead.

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This episode is a monster again,
amazing insights.

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I can't wait to listen to them
again because we've already

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recorded them.
JD Before we get to the very

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intelligent fund managers that
everyone is is here to tune

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into, we've got 2 quick things
for the money miners to know

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about as we head towards the end
of the year.

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First one, I don't know if all
the money miners know about the

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director special.
The director special is a daily

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e-mail, markets focused e-mail
that we write every morning.

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It goes out around the time that
markets are open.

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You and I summarize all of the
the Intel that is out from the

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market in the day, plus all of
the headlines out from the the

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Finn, Bloomberg, Reuters, you
know, all of the big stories in

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mining markets that day.
And we break news as well, mate.

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The medal of Bancan has been
unfolding right in front of our

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faces.
Perseus, Predictive and Robex.

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And that's just one of the many
stories that we've broken over

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the past year since we kicked
this thing off so.

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Sometimes we get a scoop which
is markets relevant.

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We we very we very.
I think it was a coincidence

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this week.
We we just happened to predict

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the exact recut deal split in
the Robex predictive Perseus

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battle for bank and my God
there's too many PS and Rs.

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Indeed.
Long story short though mate,

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look in the shower notes,
whether it's on YouTube, Spotify

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or Apple.
Right at the top you'll see

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Director special.
If not, if that's too hard,

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moneyamind.com you can sign up
right there.

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Put your yeah sign up.
It's as easy as that and.

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And we're getting creative,
mate.

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We might have a little treat
drop in your inbox over the

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weekend, so keep your eyes
peeled for that one second

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service announcement.
Brew Dog 5:00 PM West Perth

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Tuesday, Tuesday.
I think it's the 16th of

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December, but come down, have a
beer with us, have a beer with a

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whole bunch of people in the
mining industry.

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We are pumped.
Not much more needs to be said

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on that one.
Not at all.

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I am.
I'm keen to, I'm keen.

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I'm keen to see the money miners
in person mate, very keen.

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Me too, mate.
And now before we jump into a

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whole bunch of commodity mining
picks and boy do we have a lot

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to get through, we got a little
diversifier for the money

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miners, I'm talking property
mates specifically exceed

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capital.
You don't exceed my expectations

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with exceed capital here.
Exceed Capital.

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They're the ones that'll exceed
your expectations mate.

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Exceed Capital have been around
for a while.

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They've got a solid long term
track record.

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They're a Brisbane based group.
They run a bunch of different

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funds.
Their flagship fund is the

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collective and they pay.
They target a sort of 7 to 8%

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cash return.
Paid monthly.

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So this is commercial property
and fund that is accessible in

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units that interesting, I
thought you had to have like a

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jillion dollars for deposit on a
house these days make you get

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access to commercial property in
any way shape or form can be a

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fund and it can be paid a divvy
and get capital uplift on top of

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that very, very attractive.
Very attractive details are in

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the show notes.
Thank you.

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Exceed capital.
Now here we go on to the

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predictions.
Dave Sparks of First New York,

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thank you so much for for coming
back on the potty and giving us

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your 2026 predictions.
To kick off.

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What's your highest conviction
call for 2026?

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OK.
So I I have a couple ideas here.

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Highest, highest conviction is
Q2 metals, lithium, spodumene

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play in Quebec proving out a
tier one resource base.

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I think there's a huge re rating
potential coming next year.

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Initial resource gets defined
next at the beginning of next

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year and then moving to the, you
know, preliminary studies.

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I think I don't, I don't know if
this is consensus, consensus or

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not, but I feel like the tide is
turning a little bit on, on

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lithium.
And when I look at like what

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what Bloomberg has has priced in
in forward estimates, I think

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that is the kind of contrarian
commodity call in that they're

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the prices are still too low.
So Q2 is is highest, highest

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conviction followed by PMAT.
Also in Quebec, I think there's

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a huge re rating potential there
after their feasibility study

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was only focused on one deposit
and you know, you didn't get the

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benefit of seeing what the
cesium and tantalum were worth.

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They still have to define what
the gallium looks like.

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So the, the 2 Quebec up and
comers I'm I'm very excited

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about.
And then I would say 2 honorable

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mentions. 1 is McEwan.
So big copper project in

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Argentina that's going to get
IPO to the beginning of next

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year, partnered with Rio and
Stalantos.

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And I think obviously copper is
very hot right now, copper

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development projects very hot
right now.

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I, I think there's a massive re
rating potential coming in

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McEwan both from the copper
assets and from their gold

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assets really positive and
encouraging drilling lately

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that's going to extend life of
mine.

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And, and, and I, I just think
the assets, the, the total group

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asset base is just entirely
mispriced.

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And then final, final conviction
idea, kind of like a a free

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option here with runway is
Algoma Steel, Canadian steel

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producer that is transitioning
from blast furnace to brand new

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state-of-the-art electric arc
furnace has been destroyed

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because of US, Canada trade
tensions.

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But Canada's given it 500
million bucks in runway and

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they're pivoting from coil to
trying to do more structural and

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plate and Canada's trying to
help them with, with

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infrastructure there.
But you essentially are sitting

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on a a free option to US and
Canada sorting out a trade deal,

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the tariffs going from 50 to 15%
and this thing's going to

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massively rewrite.
So those are those are the four

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I'm most excited about. 4 picks.
I love that.

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Thanks Dave.
How about your most non

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consensus view for the coming
year?

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Well, I, I, I don't know if if
lithium is non consensus or or

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not.
You guys are going to know

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better than me with, with people
jumping on here and giving their

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pinnix.
I still think it is.

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I, I think from a, if, if you're
talking an equity perspective, I

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know we talked about this name
earlier in the year and people

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still love to crap on it.
But I, I think with where

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spodumene prices have gone,
Sigma is a very non consensus

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long idea. 10 bucks.
I think where spodumene is is

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now gone.
The cash concern has to

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diminish.
And you know, if we're 12 months

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from now talking about spodumene
having been here or improving,

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then Sigma's made money and
we're talking about a, a phase

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two that's been financed.
And then, you know, December

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2026, are we looking at, you
know, a free cash flow yield on

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phase one and phase two?
And, and that's, you know,

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probably more of a 30 something
dollar stock than a $10 stock.

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So that that would be I, I feel
like fairly non consensus, but

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you guys are going to have a
better handle on that than me.

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Great to hear, Dave.
And what about the best

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performing commodity?
Well, I'll stick with lithium.

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Just thinking about, you know,
when you guys asked me, I was

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trying to think like, OK, what
what can really move the most?

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If we're talking about lithium
doubling, I would, you know,

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spodumene doubling from here.
I would totally buy that.

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Carbonate maybe sure, but you
know other than that I think

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silver has another chance to
double next year given how tight

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the supply and demand
fundamentals are there.

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And then I would say honorable
mention is oil.

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I am very interested in looking
at how to get 27 upside

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optionality to crude prices.
I like your thinking there,

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Dave.
And last but not least, what is

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going to be the worst performing
commodity?

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OK, I gave you this little
thought.

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I feel like everyone's going to
say iron ore year in, year out.

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I don't see why that's wrong,
but so I'm going to answer this

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slightly differently.
It looks like a great year for

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commodities coming up.
I don't know that the themes

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that that people are excited
about are necessarily going to

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be wrong.
I think copper does work.

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However, the thing that's going
to nuke people's portfolio is

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going to be an AI scare.
And the, you know, if, if AI

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ends up blowing up the stock
market next year and we have to

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change growth assumptions,
that's obviously going to have a

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negative impact on copper and
the things that we like.

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So I would say rather than like
the worst performing commodity

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and what I want to be short next
year, I think I'd you want to be

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long the right themes and long a
bunch of NVIDIA puts because I

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think that's how your portfolio
could get wrecked.

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Chris Chad.
Saturday Macro Fund, We are

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stoked to get you on the show
again mate.

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You had some very good picks.
Your fund has been roaring this

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year so looking forward to what
you've got in store for us for

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2026.
What is your highest conviction

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prediction for the coming year?
My last prediction, highest

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conviction prediction for 2026
broadly speaking is that the

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upgrade to the US electrical
grid will be the number one most

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important issue in financial
markets in the economy.

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And we think it's imperative
that the US does this if there

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any chance to win the AI rights,
which has both economic and

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national security interests and
a stock we we think is a good

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way to express that trait is is
Arc GPS, which is a locally IS6

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listed company that provides
software and hardware solutions

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to US based utilities in terms
of supporting their their pole

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infrastructure.
Like it chatty?

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And what about the most non
consensus call for the year

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ahead?
Look, so we're, we're, we know

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it's a commodities podcast and
we're bullish commodities in

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2026.
Having said that, we think oil

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on a relative basis will will
underperform compared to other

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commodities.
A lot of the smart people we

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follow think oil has some
catching up to do and and

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they're really constructive on
oil prices into 2026.

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People talk to the oil to gold
ratio, which is historically

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incredibly high compared to
historically averages.

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And many people that we really
respect are predicting that

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that's a sort of whipsaw back
into to long term averages,

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which would be good for oil
prices.

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But we think there's political
impetus between MBS and

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President Trump to keep oil
prices low to the midterms.

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We think some of the decisions
by Saudi Arabia in effect OPEC

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to to boost production has been
unusual when we compare it to to

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past circumstances when the
supply and demand fundamentals

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are SAR and the oil market.
And we're not sure what the

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trade off is for Saudi Arabia,
what what they're going to get

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in the long run.
But we think there's a political

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will to keep oil prices
relatively stable and and

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underperform other commodities
up until the US midterms in

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November 2026.
Yeah, cheap oil tends to to keep

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the punchers happy.
So what is going to be the best

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performing commodity then?
But we feel we're a little.

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Bit late to this one, but we
think silver is going to be the

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best performing commodity in
2026 and we say that whilst

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understanding it's had a really
strong run in 2025.

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We're constructing on gold
prices.

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00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,600
When we look at previous cycle
highs of gold being around $2000

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00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,880
and gold's now more than double
that in U.S. dollar terms.

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Silver, its previous cycle highs
were 50 bucks and it's now, but

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00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,200
as of today about 16% higher
than that.

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00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,880
So we think it's got some
catching up to do when compared

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00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,480
to gold.
And we also think the industrial

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00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,280
applications or use cases with
silver are really strong.

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00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:18,280
Things like solar, EVs,
electronics, medical equipment.

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00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,760
We think there's, you know,
strong demand heading into 2026

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outside of the fact either
outside of the the people or

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00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,240
groups that are using using
silver as a monetary missile

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00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,320
metal and particularly in
countries like India, you know,

227
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,360
silver's a really acceptable
place to to store value.

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00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:39,880
And we think that's going to be
one of the things that

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00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:45,800
underwrite it's pricing 2026.
I like your thinking and the the

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00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,120
flip side, what's the worst
performer?

231
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,560
So again I'm repeating myself a
bit, but whilst we are, we don't

232
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,520
think it's going to perform
badly necessarily nominal terms,

233
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,160
but on a relative basis compared
to other commodities, we think

234
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,960
iron ore is going to continue to
be relatively soft.

235
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,920
We think the Chinese property
market is in structural decline.

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00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:12,200
We don't think it's a one or two
year event the softness in the

237
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:16,400
Chinese property market and then
I guess by default the the

238
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,520
softness in Chinese steel
production and this is happening

239
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:22,960
at a time when Simon Dow is
coming on board.

240
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,040
I think it's starting with in 20
million tons per year in 2026,

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00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,840
we're having up 120 million tons
by 2030.

242
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:35,160
So the supply side for Rhino
looks pretty healthy and the

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00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,200
demand side to us looks
relatively weak.

244
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,960
So we think I know will continue
to uniform compared to other

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00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,960
commodities next year.
Warren Erwin Russo Asset

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00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,280
Management Delighted you can
join us again.

247
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,280
Got to ask you mate, what is
your highest conviction

248
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:53,440
prediction for 2026?
You know, in my world, in the

249
00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,680
world we live in, it's tough to
have any high conviction, but my

250
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,720
highest conviction would be in
with colonial coal.

251
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:01,640
It was my highest conviction
last year.

252
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:06,040
It didn't happen, but super high
quality met coal, lots of it.

253
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:11,400
Western Canada, good valuations
on rail at a port.

254
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:15,600
It's it's gonna it's gonna
perform very well here at some

255
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,120
point.
And I think with all the

256
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,920
activity in the in the met coal
space, it'll eventually get

257
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:23,400
picked off.
So that's that's probably my

258
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,080
highest conviction trade in the
coming year.

259
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,080
Looking forward to seeing how
that one goes.

260
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,080
Warren, How about?
Yeah, me too.

261
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,920
Fingers crossed.
How about your non consensus

262
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,440
view for the year coming?
Oh I'm not sure what consensus

263
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:37,520
is.
That's the biggest problem with

264
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:41,560
non consensus views.
But if the consensus is EVs are

265
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,000
our future, you know, I don't
share that view.

266
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:48,840
It may be in our future at some
point, but you know, EVs here in

267
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:53,120
Canada are, you know, for, for a
lot of people, they're just not,

268
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,800
not usable.
The, the cold weather reduces

269
00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,000
your range And where I live, a
lot of the mountains, you know,

270
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:01,680
you just you can't tow with
them.

271
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:03,880
It dramatically reduces the
range.

272
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,800
So I'm basically, I'm not saying
anti EV.

273
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,760
I think the, but anyways, I'm
anti EV.

274
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,160
We've got even Ford's
recognizes, right?

275
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,640
They, they've, I think they've
stopped manufacturing the Mackey

276
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,480
and the, and the Lightning,
which is the Ford F-150, the

277
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,319
most popular vehicle in North
America and they're no longer

278
00:17:25,319 --> 00:17:26,760
making the electric version of
it.

279
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,680
So it was kind of a slap in the
face to Ford, But I think people

280
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,800
are just, they don't believe the
baloney.

281
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,040
And if you're trying to reduce
carbon, it's not the way to do

282
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,040
it.
As you guys know, the carbon

283
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,840
footprint and all the copper
mines in Chile, Peru, wherever

284
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,400
they're, they're being, it's
being mined.

285
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:47,000
You're just moving the pollution
from from the cities in, in

286
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:51,000
let's say Los Angeles or San
Francisco to the, to Chile where

287
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,040
it'll, they'll be burning all
the diesel fuel down there

288
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,520
instead of in the town.
So it's really just a movement

289
00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,760
of pollution.
And as far as CO2, this it's a

290
00:17:58,760 --> 00:17:59,760
lot of work has been done on
this.

291
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:04,200
The CO2 savings by going with
electric is over the lifespan of

292
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,920
a vehicle is there's just
doesn't work and it's so it's

293
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,600
pretty ridiculous.
The vehicles don't work in

294
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,760
Canada for a lot of people.
They do for the people just, you

295
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:14,080
know, travel around the cities
and stuff.

296
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,280
But if you're going on long
trips or have mountains, or if

297
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,000
you're in Edmonton or Calgary
where the weather is super cold,

298
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:25,160
they just don't work.
So that's my that's my, my non

299
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:26,680
consensus view.
And I think we're starting to

300
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,720
see a collapse.
People just aren't buying them.

301
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,680
That's why they've stopped.
Ford shut down a lot of their EV

302
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,320
production.
What is going to be the best

303
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,800
performing commodity for the
next 12 months?

304
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,120
I got to think met coal, I'm a
big fan of met coal.

305
00:18:40,120 --> 00:18:43,840
Nobody's looking for it.
It's really, you know, nobody's

306
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,480
looking for met coal. 1000
people are looking for uranium

307
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,400
and gold and everything else,
but nobody's looking for met

308
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:49,880
coal.
I've got the Indians.

309
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,240
I'm not sure you look at their
coal that their steel production

310
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,240
figures, they want to double the
steel production within a very,

311
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,240
very short period of time.
And they're not going to do that

312
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,160
without met coal.
And there isn't a slack in the

313
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,320
system in my opinion, for for
it.

314
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,240
So we'll see.
And so I'm, I'm, I guess I'm

315
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,640
pretty bullish on that coal.
The reason I like it too is

316
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,040
it's, it's out of favour.
I think a lot of people are,

317
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,360
have been anti coal.
I think again, not like not

318
00:19:16,360 --> 00:19:19,400
unlike EVs, people are starting
to put their thinking caps on

319
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,960
and figure out that, you know,
coal, coal is not going away as

320
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,840
oil is not going away.
And so a lot of these themes

321
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,360
that were playing out, you know,
3-4 years ago, I think people

322
00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:32,320
are starting to realize how
ridiculous they are.

323
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,520
Yeah, certainly contrarian
there.

324
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,960
Warren.
Last year you served up uranium

325
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:43,600
as the commodity to not not
exceed the other commodities

326
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,720
that we look at.
What are you going to pick this

327
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,720
year?
Well, as as you know, uranium

328
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,760
was pretty much flat.
I was again against the curve

329
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,920
against everybody who was
bullish on uranium expecting 100

330
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:59,960
one 5200 uranium.
So, and there are the reasons

331
00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:02,960
for that is you know, here, you
know.

332
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:04,560
We, we talked about it last
year.

333
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:08,000
Basically you had a lot of
baloney in the market.

334
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,840
And despite all the market
manipulation, we're talking

335
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,960
serious market manipulation, not
unlike the, you know, trying to

336
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,280
corner the silver market when I
was a kid, I remember the Hunt

337
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,560
brothers trying to do that well
with when you had spot and

338
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,560
yellow cake trying to corner the
market in spot and uranium, a

339
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,720
very illiquid, very illiquid
market.

340
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,880
And despite buying what about
100,000,000 lbs and all the

341
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,240
speculators on top of that, they
still haven't been able to

342
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,400
squeeze the market above 100 or
anywhere near the, the $200

343
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:36,920
level people targets people
have.

344
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,680
So, so I'm not super duper
bullish on uranium.

345
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:46,120
I do own uranium stocks, but we,
we got to get the uranium's

346
00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:48,640
coming from somewhere.
Nobody knows where it is.

347
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,040
It seems to be filling the, the
production versus consumption

348
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,320
gap.
So until we start seeing signs

349
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:59,280
of that ending, I'm not a super
big bull on it, although I wish

350
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,800
it would go up because they do
have the world's largest

351
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,760
undeveloped uranium project in
Sweden in the district metals.

352
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,680
But that being said, again, once
again, being contrarian here on

353
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,000
the worst performers, I think
this whole critical metals thing

354
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:15,600
is total baloney.
And again, I own one of the

355
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:19,160
world's most significant
critical metals projects.

356
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,960
But you know, I think this whole
critical metals thing is over

357
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,880
height.
I don't see how it's how we're

358
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,960
going to make any money on it
other than in the stock market.

359
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,880
I don't think they're going to
be tough to make money actually

360
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,720
running a critical metals
operation.

361
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,080
But I think, you know, on the
hype, I might be able to make

362
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,240
some money flipping it off to
people who who believe the hype,

363
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,080
But I'm just not a big fan of
critical metals.

364
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,920
And I just, I think at some
point might be this year, this

365
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:47,760
coming year, 2026 or 2027, where
people finally realize it's just

366
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,400
completely over hyped.
And the businesses themselves,

367
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,720
the reason we don't have Western
productions is tough to make

368
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,560
money doing it.
So we'll see if that happens and

369
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,840
we'll see if to what extent the
Chinese continue to hold back on

370
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,120
critical metals.
But that's sort of my take

371
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:07,240
there.
Again, contrarian, the other one

372
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,360
that could be kind of fun.
And I'm actually don't believe

373
00:22:10,360 --> 00:22:13,040
this, but I'm bullish on gold.
But you know, given how good

374
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,400
good a run gold had last year, a
contrarian like myself would say

375
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,080
I think gold's going to be the
worst performer.

376
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,840
But frankly, I don't believe it.
I think I one thing, I think we

377
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,800
get all the biggest thing in our
business.

378
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,800
And you know, I've been doing
this for many, many decades.

379
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:32,080
The only thing we could count on
for sure 100% is our idiot

380
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:36,120
governments printing money like
crazy and devaluing our our

381
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,680
baloney paper currency.
And you're seeing that in

382
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,080
Canada, you're seeing it in the
US.

383
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,800
So the value of gold will go up
without a doubt over time.

384
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,960
I'm calling the $5000 an ounce
gold.

385
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,120
Don't know when it'll happen but
it will happen within my

386
00:22:49,120 --> 00:22:53,520
lifetime hopefully and but the
one thing we count on is these

387
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,400
politicians printing more and
more money and gold long term

388
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,440
will do great.
They might have a set back over

389
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,320
the next year.
It's not a good run so we'll see

390
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,480
what happens there but I look
forward to 2026.

391
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,440
Should be fun.
I hope I get colonial coal sold.

392
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,560
Michael Teran from Black Waddle
It's been a while since we've

393
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,640
spoken, mate, but I'm delighted
that you're joining us for our

394
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,760
predictions for the year ahead.
To kick things off, what's your

395
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,200
highest conviction prediction
for 2026?

396
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,000
Hey guys, great to chat again.
Thanks for having me on.

397
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,960
Our highest conviction idea in
the mining space for 2026 is

398
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,080
that next Gen. gets taken over.
We just think that next gen's

399
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:31,120
real project, it's just it's too
important, it's too strategic

400
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,760
just to be developed by an
independent.

401
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,440
Like this is a tier one
resource, you know, at full run

402
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,240
rate could be doing £30 million
a year.

403
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,480
And that's in a marketer that's
only does £160 million.

404
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,520
They'll be pretty disruptive if
that came on pretty quickly.

405
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,200
So, you know, it just doesn't
make sense for it to be done by

406
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,000
independent.
You know, it's large enough to

407
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:50,880
be, you know, bigger than bigger
than Kamico, right.

408
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,480
And so we think the big colors
for 2026, you know, is that next

409
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,640
thing they get their federal
approval, but done by mid year.

410
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,160
And you know, we think it at
that point is a sitting duck.

411
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,560
You know, most likely, you know,
Kamico consolidate them.

412
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,080
It's a general generational
opportunity for Kamico like this

413
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,360
locks them in to be the pre
eminent supplier, western

414
00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:09,800
supplier.
So we think that's a high

415
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:11,600
probability that you know, next
Gen., you know, gets

416
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,840
consolidated.
Fantastic, I like it.

417
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:19,080
How about a non consensus pick?
Yeah, OK, got a bit out here,

418
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,520
but you know, I'll trearing
call.

419
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,720
Is that that debasement trade
just really accelerates in 2026

420
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,200
and that's driven by the US look
that that US fiscal situation

421
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,920
just gets worse, you know,
deficits heading towards 2

422
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,920
trillion a year.
You got midterm elections next

423
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,080
year.
That probably means more tax

424
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,400
cuts, more spending.
You know, Trump is looking to

425
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,640
replace power as the chairman.
And, you know, all those

426
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,240
candidates are really, really
dovish.

427
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,720
So, you know, more rate cuts.
And you contrast that with the

428
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,000
current economic environment.
You've got, you know, US normal

429
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,680
GDP tracking, 5% plus, you know,
core inflation 3%.

430
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,040
I mean, this only makes sense if
you're doing this to, you know,

431
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,840
try to run the economy hot and,
you know, debase your your

432
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,000
normal debt.
And I'm not saying that US is

433
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,200
the only one that's like this.
You know, even here in OS, we've

434
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,600
got, you know, core inflation
above RBA, you know, target

435
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,680
bands and you know, they're
still pretty dovish.

436
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,200
So we just think, you know, 2026
is the inflection point for that

437
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,360
debasement trade.
And, you know, you really want

438
00:25:15,360 --> 00:25:17,440
to earn real assets to, you
know, protect your purchasing

439
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:18,760
power.
And that's why we're pretty

440
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,720
bullish on commodities for 2026.
I like to hear it.

441
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,920
Mike.
And of those commodities, which

442
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,240
one's going to do the best?
We can't have a conversation

443
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,440
without talking about lithium.
Yeah, no lithium pool.

444
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,280
And you know, look, we think
the, the, the, the lithium party

445
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,440
is just getting started.
And 2026 is where you really,

446
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,960
really pops.
You know, it's now lithium is a,

447
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,320
is a really immature market.
You know, we've had, you know,

448
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,520
two really deep band markets and
a big bull market in between.

449
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,040
And just that's in the last five
years, right?

450
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,320
And that's because it's so
immature.

451
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,640
And, you know, I know pricing
has recovered a bit from those

452
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,840
low levels in the middle of the
year, but you know, at that

453
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,640
point, you know, pricing was
unsustainable.

454
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,240
It's below short run marginal
cost.

455
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,800
You know, you just, you're
forcing, you know, mothballing

456
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,360
of production and, you know, for
producers to bring that

457
00:26:06,360 --> 00:26:08,440
production back online, you
know, they need a really strong

458
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,280
price signal.
And, you know, there's a bit of

459
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,360
a lag before they can decide to
bring that online anyway.

460
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,560
And the man just continues to to
compound away 2030% with, you

461
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,760
know, battery storage, you know,
going strong.

462
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,800
And, and so you can see this
really big flip from, you know,

463
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,040
surplus to to deficit into 2026.
And when such an immature

464
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,240
market, that should mean a price
spike.

465
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,880
And so we don't, we think 2026
could look like 2022 with this

466
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,240
big price spike somewhere,
somewhere in that, in that

467
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,920
point.
And, you know, I'm not saying

468
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,800
that's that's a sustainable
level and it probably sows the

469
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,640
seeds for the next bear market,
but that's what happens in a,

470
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:43,920
you know, a very immature
market.

471
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,880
Fantastic.
And if you put your bearish hat

472
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,760
on, what's not going to perform
for the coming year?

473
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,400
This is this is a harm up for us
because we're we're pretty

474
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,520
constructive commodities across
the board.

475
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,520
So we think this is more of like
a some maybe a, you know, a

476
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,360
relative underperformer,
something that stays a little

477
00:27:00,360 --> 00:27:04,880
bit flatter for 2026.
Now maybe I know sort of drops

478
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,880
of that bucket, you know,
demands still pretty sluggish.

479
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,960
You're still waiting for Chinese
stimulus, you know, some and do

480
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,120
sign a ramp up.
So you know, it's hard to see

481
00:27:15,120 --> 00:27:18,600
that price really move with
without some decent stimulus.

482
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,320
And so you know, a flat price
firing all means it's probably a

483
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,880
relative underperformer.
Sam Broom Sprott It's been it's

484
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,520
been too long since we've
spoken, but I'm really excited

485
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,000
to hear what you've got for us
in store today.

486
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,880
What is your highest conviction
prediction for the year ahead?

487
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:36,960
Good day guys, thanks for having
me on again.

488
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,360
Always a pleasure.
You know there's a few setups

489
00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:44,760
this year so I had to took me a
little while to settle them down

490
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,280
onto what I wanted to go with.
But in terms of what I would,

491
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,960
what I would say is my highest
conviction on a, you know,

492
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,560
having a, a decent year next
year, maybe not the best

493
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,400
performing commodity, but one
that I think set up to, you

494
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,920
know, have a high percentage
chance of doing well next year.

495
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,520
I'm going to have to go with the
copper, which is probably it's

496
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,200
probably a consensus pick at
this point.

497
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,840
I'm sure it's not going to
surprise, surprise anyone.

498
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,040
But in terms of the share
fundamental set up, you know

499
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:19,280
you've got a already fairly
tight market predicting modest

500
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:24,560
deficit next year and that's
assuming some big minds like

501
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:29,160
Mark Kula, Grasberg, QB 2,
that's assuming some issues on

502
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,200
those assets get partially
resolved.

503
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,600
It's kind of like an upside case
in all of those assets.

504
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:40,840
So if we see a little bit of a
mess on any of those along with

505
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,680
the demands outlook, that to me
looks a little bit conservative.

506
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,480
I think barring some sort of
economic, you know, event that

507
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,280
really derails things next year,
I think there's actually a

508
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,520
little bit of upside to the
demand scenario.

509
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,280
So again, it's probably not
going to be the best performing

510
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,240
commodity, but in terms of
commodities that have the, you

511
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,600
know, the highest probability of
going up next year, I'd probably

512
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,640
have to go with copper.
I mean, you just got to load up

513
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,000
that chart to them.
And it reminds me of gold circle

514
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,120
kind of March, April of 2024,
right?

515
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,080
Just sitting right on the cusp
of this big multi decade

516
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,640
breakout.
It looks phenomenal.

517
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,600
You know, I look at it and I
just think it's hard to look

518
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,280
past copper for next year.
Beautiful.

519
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,760
If I have one quick follow up
there, because we saw a lot of

520
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,000
diversions between LMA and COMEX
Copper in the past year.

521
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,760
You're based in America.
So are you betting on the COMEX

522
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,440
or the LMA?
I bought, I mean, I tend to not

523
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,640
look at the Comex just because
of that distortion from the big,

524
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,160
you know, tariff spike north of
6.

525
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:45,480
So I think the LMA charts a lot
cleaner and a lot, it's kind of

526
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,080
the more global picture, right?
The US is going to have

527
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,320
distortions, you know, So I I
tend to look at the LME chart

528
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,720
more than I do the the Comex
chart, despite being a a yank

529
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,880
based over here at the moment.
Fantastic.

530
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,360
OK, what's your non consensus
pick?

531
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:04,080
Non consensus.
I went with energy, you know,

532
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,240
traditional energy, oil and gas
at the moment, which, you know,

533
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,040
especially in the PA, I've been
finding myself nibbling away at

534
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,880
the most at the moment.
If you look at the positioning,

535
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,840
right, everyone's pretty
bearish.

536
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,400
I mean, the managed money's, you
know, more bearish than peak

537
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,280
COVID.
You know, you got to go back to

538
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,680
almost the global financial
crisis back in 08 to get some of

539
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,080
the levels of market positioning
amongst the speculative money.

540
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,360
You know, again, it's kind of
the opposite of copper.

541
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,160
It's like everyone's positioned
for worst case scenario on

542
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:42,320
demand, you know, oversupply.
I just think, you know, it may,

543
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,200
again, it may not be the best
performing commodity next year,

544
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,080
but I think the risk reward is,
is quite good here.

545
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:53,080
So you know, high quality oil
and gas names, you know is where

546
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,040
I'm finding myself and I'm
bringing away quite a bit at the

547
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,960
moment.
I just think $60.00 A barrels

548
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,520
anywhere near these current
levels is not going to stick

549
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,840
around for, you know, at least
into the mid to long term.

550
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,000
Preaching to the converted mate
what what is what is going to be

551
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,880
the best performing commodity
for the 12 months ahead?

552
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,920
Again, it's usually these weird
little obscure commodities,

553
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,120
right?
I was dead wrong last year.

554
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:23,600
I think I've said vanadium was
was going to be so I am denied

555
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:24,240
on this one.
I.

556
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,400
Like the creativity though, it
got me more interested in the

557
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,240
vanadium market.
Well, I'm going to double down

558
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,440
on red and I'm going to go
vanadium again this year.

559
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,960
I think.
I think perhaps I was 12 months

560
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:41,480
too early and and specifically
the the US pentoxide price, you

561
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,600
know, our talking to some people
that know this space, you know,

562
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,240
it's very opaque.
It's very hard to find

563
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:50,520
information on.
But you know, it sounds like

564
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,600
it's almost impossible to buy
the physical on the US side

565
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,520
here.
You know, Brazil, for example,

566
00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:00,440
was a big provider of high
purity pentoxide into U.S.

567
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,760
market and you know, they just
will lock 50% tariffs on that

568
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,640
coming in which, you know, it
was kind of like a, you know,

569
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,920
when it rains a pause moment for
production out of Brazil.

570
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,720
I just don't think it's stayed
this way this long without

571
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,520
something material changing.
It's a very small, very opaque

572
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,680
market.
But it's you know, we've seen

573
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,240
what happens when these markets
get kind of SPY constrained and

574
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,440
there's a, you know, sort of
almost the price and sensitive

575
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,280
buyer, which especially for the
high purity stuff is the case in

576
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,720
vanadium.
So I'll go with vanadium.

577
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,000
You know, another kind of
obscure one I toyed with was

578
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,400
Indium.
You know, I know internally

579
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,320
there's there's interest in
Indian again, another small

580
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:44,640
opaque market, but there's some
interesting developments in

581
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,840
China where they've looked like
they've developed, you know, a

582
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:55,720
new semiconductor that is a
Indian selenide that get out of

583
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,560
mass produced and looked really,
really good.

584
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,520
That could be an incremental,
you know, more than an

585
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,320
incremental new demand for it.
And on top of that, I mean, in

586
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,640
the US, the US imports 100% of
it's Indian, right?

587
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,960
So it's, it's one of those kind
of fits in the critical bucket

588
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,400
that they're screwed.
There's no, there's no internal

589
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,960
source of material.
So I have a feeling it could do

590
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,600
kind of a antimony or, you know,
tungsten or something and go on

591
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,880
a hero spike next year.
We'll see.

592
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,360
Looking forward to saying that.
And what is the commodity you're

593
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,640
most bearish on?
This is a body hard one because

594
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,600
so many of the sit ups look
enticing, don't they?

595
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,320
I feel like a bit of a cop out,
but I'm I had to come down to,

596
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:40,960
you know, what's probably going
to go up the least, Because I

597
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,200
get the feeling, you know, just
with the setups out there, that

598
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,920
a lot of stuff's probably going
to go up next year, You know,

599
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,400
particularly if the dollar
really does roll over, which I

600
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,880
think it will.
But I ended up going with nickel

601
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,480
just because you pick up all the
charts.

602
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:55,240
It's just.
It's just.

603
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,840
Deered, right.
I mean the, the poor nickel

604
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,640
market would it's just still so
much supply out there.

605
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:06,000
It's just like kept at this, you
know, kind of fourteen, $15,000

606
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,159
a ton level.
I don't see anything obvious

607
00:34:09,159 --> 00:34:11,920
that it's going to change that
next year, with the caveat that

608
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,880
there's always a geopolitical
event, you know, even in those

609
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,040
trying to looks like they're
trying to kind of reduce the

610
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,239
future supply by tightening a
few things up.

611
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,520
So I don't know, I have a
feeling that maybe in 12 months

612
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,040
time I might go the other way
and have it as a potential top

613
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,440
performer, but just feels a
little too early in the nickel

614
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,000
market absent something coming
out from left field.

615
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:39,360
So yeah, I'm going to
begrudgingly go with nickel.

616
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,320
I want, I want, I want nickel to
be cool again.

617
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:47,280
But for now, I'm going to have
to pick that as my worst

618
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,520
performing moderate for next
year, so.

619
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,679
Rodrigo Carvalho BTG, Pacsu We
are delighted you've made the

620
00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:56,159
time to to join us and looking
forward to hearing your

621
00:34:56,159 --> 00:34:59,920
predictions.
What is your highest conviction

622
00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:05,000
prediction for the coming year?
SQM sure.

623
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:13,040
We are really bullish on living
market for next year and so SQM

624
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:17,840
is a good vehicle to be there.
And at the moment the company

625
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:22,640
has a very good news flow
regarding closing of the Codelco

626
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:27,320
deal.
We are expecting to have the

627
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,440
closing of the deal by the end
of the year.

628
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,840
We just expect the internal
audit of the Chilean government

629
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:42,120
to approve and with all of that
the Chair will will rise in our

630
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,480
opinion.
At the same time in terms of

631
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:54,000
operational front, the company
will grow in volume growth by

632
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:58,960
10% next year.
So in a really good scenario of

633
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:08,360
is the company to be because as
you may know the structure of

634
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,440
contracts varies spot versus the
rest of the lithium peers with

635
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,800
no too much caps or floors.
So it's very interesting to it's

636
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,760
a symbol of lithium price for in
our opinion.

637
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,360
I like that pick mate and what
will be the What is your most

638
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,480
non consensus prediction for the
year ahead?

639
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:40,200
This is a bit tough, but I will
bet on, I don't know, I think

640
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:48,520
the supply is very restricted.
I mean no many growth project

641
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,960
for the industry, the major star
as Rio Tinto and PHP are

642
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:59,200
interested in growing in copper.
So it's interesting to see that

643
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:09,840
despite we have a slow demand in
China, maybe we have a potential

644
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,360
of a structural supply demand
balance better than the

645
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,160
expectation of many years
before.

646
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,640
Simon has been a disappointing
ramp up to get the volumes.

647
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:27,240
So, and additionally topic that
is interesting to highlight is

648
00:37:27,240 --> 00:37:30,520
the the lower grades in the
industry.

649
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:39,720
Rio Dinto has an estimate of
more or less 3 1/2% of the of

650
00:37:39,720 --> 00:37:42,760
supply as industry level because
of this.

651
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:49,560
So you have all their minds and
it's a topic that is also

652
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,600
affecting copper industry.
So it's interesting to

653
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,720
understand that even with a weak
China, I think.

654
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,000
The market can be impulse.
Fantastic Rodrigo, That is

655
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,640
certainly one of the most non
consensus views we've heard.

656
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,920
What have you got as the best
performing commodity for 2026?

657
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,240
As I said before, I'm very
bullish on lithium.

658
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:20,080
I think the demand is been
outperforming the expectation

659
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:25,240
for many quarters.
For sure, EV sales is been

660
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:32,560
increasing, but the surprise is
for the ESS site going over 70%

661
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:37,040
this year.
And if you analyze the data from

662
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:42,000
the backlog of projects going
forward, we could expect even an

663
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,800
additional year with over 50% of
growth in terms of demand.

664
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,080
Great to yeah, great to get
that, that perspective.

665
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,080
What about on the flip side?
Red Rego the worst performer?

666
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:57,320
Another tough question, maybe
nickel is a very oversupply

667
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,400
market because you know,
Indonesia is very important.

668
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,560
They have a very important cost
advantage versus Western world

669
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:13,480
and lower regulations.
It's at the same time I think

670
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,520
China is investing heavily
there.

671
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:25,920
So with the support of Chinese
companies and lower regulation

672
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,480
to, to, to get a product there
is very easy versus the rest of

673
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,240
the world.
And in this context, it's a

674
00:39:33,240 --> 00:39:36,800
market very complicated to to be
rational.

675
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,000
So in my opinion, with the
demand disappointing in terms of

676
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,800
the demand of batteries with
nickel Katos, as you may know

677
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,920
that LFP is being increasing
micro share over the three or

678
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:53,560
four last years and it's hard to
predict a surprise on demand by

679
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:58,480
the way.
So I'm not so interested in

680
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,600
Nicola at the moment.
Rob Mullen, Marathon Resource

681
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,440
Advisors, We are thrilled to
have you on the show again and

682
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,640
looking forward to hearing your
predictions for the coming year.

683
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,840
What is your highest conviction
bet for 2026 Rob?

684
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:15,200
You know, so as like the
dumpster diver value contrarian

685
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,120
that I am, I love traditional
energy here.

686
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,280
I think, you know, your oil and
gas producers, there is so much

687
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:26,920
egregious negative sentiment,
you know, the, the widespread

688
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,080
belief that will be vastly
oversupplied with the additional

689
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,600
OPEC barrels that have come on.
You know, to me that that it

690
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,440
just, you know, positioning for,
you know, both specs and, and

691
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,600
you know, commercials and
everything is just loaded up to

692
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:46,160
the negative energy side.
And yet over the last, you know,

693
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:50,080
two 3-4 weeks, the stocks are
doing actually pretty well.

694
00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:54,960
And and so to me, that's the
market telling me that there's a

695
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,040
story here that a lot of times
the stocks turn before there is

696
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,880
any fundamental sign of it.
It feels to me like that's

697
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:02,480
happening in energy.
There happened to be some great

698
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,520
ways to express it.
And you know, look, when I was

699
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,600
down on the other coast at, you
know, stone hearts and minds, my

700
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,280
pick was Schlumberger.
And so I know it's not the, you

701
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,200
know, 4 cent special that, you
know, has a couple billion out

702
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,760
shares outstanding that
sometimes, you know, people get

703
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:22,880
excited about, but it's, I think
it's a spectacular story.

704
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,560
It's got it's got a resource
component to it.

705
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,880
It's got a technology AI
component to it.

706
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,080
And I just think it's, it's one
of those things that to me, when

707
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,320
you can buy super high quality
businesses by, you know,

708
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,320
generating huge free cash flow
with management teams buying

709
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,920
back stock hand over fist at
through multiples on through

710
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,200
earnings, you know, sign me up,
give me more.

711
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,360
It's simple when you say it like
that, Rob.

712
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,200
Yeah.
What about your most non

713
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:49,880
consensus prediction for the
year ahead?

714
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,600
So.
You know, I got, I got a few in

715
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:57,200
the resource space.
I'm actually not that psyched on

716
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,640
natural gas.
I mean, people have kind of come

717
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,240
into this winter and are super
excited.

718
00:42:02,240 --> 00:42:05,440
And you've sort of got the
peripheral players from the AI

719
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:09,320
data center theme who are sort
of they've over the last year a

720
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,080
couple of times, they've kind of
stepped into the resource space

721
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,760
and have decided to grace us
with the fact that it's worth

722
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,240
actually buying some of the
stuff that you have to power all

723
00:42:19,240 --> 00:42:23,960
of these things on.
But I'm just not sure I see it

724
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:28,800
and I don't, not yet at least.
And so I think this near term

725
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:33,040
Bush that's got US prices, you
know, up for the winter close to

726
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,040
5 bucks.
I think there's a lot of gas

727
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,280
that can come on then I think
it's better for the service

728
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,760
providers quite frankly, than it
is for the companies.

729
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,560
And so, you know, I'm kind of
incrementally, you know, I just

730
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:49,000
natural gas for me is a big man
and I'm relatively constructive

731
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,840
across the most of the commodity
complex, despite the fact that I

732
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,520
don't have a particularly
aggressive economic stance.

733
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,840
I'd say if I was going to throw
one other thing in there for

734
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,040
fun, I'm actually pretty bullish
on the yen.

735
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,880
I think the Japanese yen.
And if I had to pick a currency

736
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,920
to play it against, I'd actually
be long yen, short peso.

737
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:12,160
So, so Mex yen to me looks like
a pretty easy kind of tail

738
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,320
trade.
You know, you may end up making

739
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,920
nothing on it.
And you know, but I, I, I think

740
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:22,680
that is where global investors
are so overloaded to one side of

741
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:24,720
the boat in terms of being short
yen.

742
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:31,160
And if there is some sort of,
you know, tremors in the, you

743
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,160
know, global backdrop, we know
whether that be you know,

744
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,720
continued rough private credit
or you know, anything else

745
00:43:37,720 --> 00:43:39,320
geopolitical uncertainty
etcetera.

746
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:43,040
That to me is something that can
looks wildly asymmetric.

747
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,920
So that would be my my other non
consensus is long yen versus

748
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,200
Mexican peso.
Contrarian as always.

749
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,400
What is going to be the best
performing commodity?

750
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:55,520
Maybe if we park up your energy
bet for a moment there for 2026.

751
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,440
Yeah, I think I'm putting that
aside.

752
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:03,040
You know, again, going into
things that people hate, thermal

753
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:07,200
call, it's another one of those
places that's acting a little

754
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,000
bit better.
And I think one of the

755
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:13,440
realizations that the world is
coming around to is that this

756
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:17,520
perceived Cliff of fossil fuel
demand, whether it be oil, gas

757
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:22,240
or thermal coal that they kind
of people envisioned and were

758
00:44:22,240 --> 00:44:25,000
investing for at the, you know,
20-30.

759
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:30,680
And on that dog doesn't hunt in
a world where EM is going to

760
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:34,920
continue to grow and need the
best and most functional forms

761
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,800
of energy.
And in the developed world, AI

762
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,760
data centers are going to cause
the requirement that the grid

763
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,520
grows, you know, two to three
times as fast as it has at any

764
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,160
time in the last 30 years.
So to me, that's just it.

765
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:53,560
All of those that sector in
particular looks like it's been

766
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,200
treated like a short dated
option.

767
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,240
And I think you have to add 5 to
10 more years on to it.

768
00:44:58,240 --> 00:45:01,280
And so when you turn a
three-year option into a 10 year

769
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:05,120
option, the price goes up a lot.
And so I think that's where

770
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:08,880
thermal coal is right now.
And the flip side, Rob the worst

771
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,160
performer.
Yeah, look.

772
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,960
I'm not 100% sure I got really
strong feelings on this, but if

773
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:20,640
I'm kind of mad on the economy
and it does look to me like, but

774
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,440
you know, iron ore supply looks
pretty full.

775
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:28,120
That's a place where I'm
incrementally short is is kind

776
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:33,200
of the iron ore and iron ore
producers in a, in an economic

777
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:37,760
environment that is, you know,
up a little to maybe down a

778
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,000
little.
That's an area where I don't

779
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:41,600
think you get much juice on the
upside.

780
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,400
Matthew Fist, Biotrail, the
Aussie Small Caps Fund.

781
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:46,560
You've been killing it this
year.

782
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:48,040
You had some great picks last
year.

783
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,320
You gave us the gift of Genesis
for your highest conviction

784
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,240
prediction which has done
remarkably well.

785
00:45:52,240 --> 00:45:53,680
What have you got in store for
us this year?

786
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,440
Look, I'm going to go the same
again, guys.

787
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,480
It's a big, big bit of a theme
through this chat, but I've got

788
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,560
some specifics for you.
So this year, Genesis, they're

789
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:07,360
going to beg guidance by more
than 10% and they will show a

790
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,120
clear pathway to over 500,000 oz
per annum.

791
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:14,400
Wow, I like it.
That's yeah, you're doubling

792
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:15,840
down, but the numbers just get
bigger.

793
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,240
And it was it was a great pick
last year.

794
00:46:18,240 --> 00:46:20,880
What about your most non
consensus prediction for the

795
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,520
year ahead?
All right.

796
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,040
So I think one thing that's been
a bit on the nose lately are the

797
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,320
African golds.
There's been a fair bit of

798
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:30,640
political risk because it's come
into the names.

799
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,600
We've seen them all direct quite
considerably.

800
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,000
My non consensus pick for this
year is that we see a material

801
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:40,240
rewrite in a lot of these names
currently trading on .5 times

802
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:44,720
NIV versus the Aussie sector,
which is anywhere from 1 to 1

803
00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:45,960
1/2 depending on who you
believe.

804
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,040
And the key thing that's
happened there in the past few

805
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:50,600
months is the listing of
Xinjiang.

806
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:55,880
So Chinese company listed now
has a $200 billion Australian

807
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,320
market cap producing 1 1/2
thousand oz, similar to Northern

808
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,000
Star.
That's got, you know, a market

809
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,120
cap of about 35 billion.
So the key thing I think will

810
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,760
happen there is Xinjiang will
start being very proactive in

811
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:11,400
terms of acquiring assets in
Africa in particular.

812
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,760
And that should say a material
rewriting of the sector.

813
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,040
We've never had a company like
that that's got the capability

814
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,080
to be able to acquire.
And I think that would say the

815
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:20,520
whole sector be rewrited over
there.

816
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,400
Awesome.
Looking forward to seeing that

817
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,240
play out.
And how about the commodity to

818
00:47:24,240 --> 00:47:29,240
do best?
Can't go past oil at the moment.

819
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:34,480
I think the market is pretty
much tighter than what the

820
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,240
consensus would have you have
you believe.

821
00:47:37,240 --> 00:47:39,840
We're seeing a situation now I
think where the market is

822
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:43,120
broadly balanced.
No one in OPEC has got any spare

823
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,720
capacity apart from Saudi and
the UAE.

824
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,080
On top of that, you've got over
90% of the CapEx in the US

825
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,440
onshore now is being used just
to sustain production rather

826
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,600
than grow.
Financial markets are record

827
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,280
levels of short interest.
So I think that's just a great

828
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:00,920
set up there at around $60.00 a
barrel.

829
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:04,480
And the flip side 50 the worst
performer.

830
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,000
Yeah, I'm going to double down
on NDPI, you guys.

831
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,160
So I was, I had a few nightmares
when I was rekindling my

832
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,560
prediction from last year.
And then watching the, the line

833
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,720
of share price go up and, and
I'll look her over the year was

834
00:48:16,720 --> 00:48:20,720
pretty tough for me.
It's I'm doubling down here.

835
00:48:20,720 --> 00:48:22,600
And if I'm wrong again, I'll
double down next year.

836
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,880
My my thesis there is that the,
the amount of government support

837
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,320
we're seeing is going to create
an oversupply.

838
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:35,160
Government's underwriting prices
at $110 a kilo for the whole

839
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,200
sector is clearly just not
sustainable.

840
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,600
And so I think it's just a
matter of time before that price

841
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,920
comes back down.
Got a quick one for you Travis.

842
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,960
What do you reckon is the the
best way to make sure your

843
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,080
company, if you're running a
mining company out there, gets a

844
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,560
shout out in the 2027
predictions in one year's time?

845
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,240
You got to perform well.
It's a mining company and

846
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:54,560
performing well.
Well what?

847
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,640
What is what is control the
controllables and what are the

848
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,640
controllables?
Is a mining company your costs?

849
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:01,760
So I'd be focusing on that.
Exactly.

850
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,880
And I think, you know, if you're
out there in your mining

851
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,160
company, you're thinking how can
you do this?

852
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:06,960
The answer is pretty natural to
us, right?

853
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:08,960
Switch Technologies, that's how
you can do it.

854
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,120
Engineering solutions right here
in the heart of Perth with a big

855
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,520
warehouse in Northbridge, mate.
I very often have lots of ideas

856
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,920
I wish I could have an
engineering solution for, and

857
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:21,120
turning those ideas into reality
is something that these guys are

858
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:22,880
the best at.
It's very true mate.

859
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,760
And engineering has a bunch of
different facets to it.

860
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:27,880
So just to be clear, we're
talking about mechanical, we're

861
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,120
talking about electrical, we're
talking about software

862
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,680
engineering.
Every one of these facets they

863
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,800
are experts in.
They can design the solution all

864
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:39,880
the way through to the ultimate
delivery of that solution.

865
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:43,400
Be it in machinery, be it an
infrastructure related thing,

866
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,160
whatever your problem is, on
site switch technologies are the

867
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,920
solution you are looking for.
They've got a commercial outlook

868
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:54,320
on these things, JD, helping
mining companies focus on their

869
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,040
costs.
Especially these times when the

870
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,880
cash is coming in, you really
want to make sure your costs are

871
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:03,160
prepared for all sorts of
markets, so get in touch with

872
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,680
Switch.
Get in touch with Mike at Switch

873
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,320
Romano Salatana from Cortana
Asset Management.

874
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:11,480
You gave us some fantastic picks
last year.

875
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,200
I'm excited to see what you've
got in store.

876
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,520
What is your highest conviction
prediction for the coming year?

877
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:21,520
We think that Next Gen.
Energy Canada ISXKNXG will

878
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:26,360
actually get taken out in 2026.
I think we all know the thematic

879
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:29,480
around uranium, how good that is
in the supply demand imbalance

880
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:33,480
and added to that now of course
is AI data centres and the huge

881
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:36,480
growth in electricity demand.
I think nuclear is probably the

882
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,600
only way that you can really
meet that demand.

883
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,600
Next Gen. owns a book one
deposit in Saskatchewan in

884
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:46,440
Canada.
It is the largest, highest grade

885
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,920
uranium deposit in the world
that's undeveloped.

886
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:54,760
You know, Saskatchewan is a, is
ranked number one in Canada on

887
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:59,160
the Fraser Institute for Mining
friendliness #7 globally.

888
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:02,800
And to put a bit of perspective
around the size of it, at full

889
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,600
production I'll be producing it
around about £30 million per

890
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,640
annum, which is about 25% of
global supply.

891
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:13,960
And by comparison, Chemical is
looking at about £20 million per

892
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:18,040
annum, you know tier $110
operating cost, which is because

893
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,400
of grades 10 times everything
else and a 13 month payback.

894
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:25,480
Now we think the most likely
acquirer is Chemical, but we are

895
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:28,560
quietly hopeful that you know
something like a BHP or Rio,

896
00:51:28,720 --> 00:51:32,200
which is also that portfolios
will think outside the square

897
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,760
and actually want to add another
string to their bow forward

898
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:39,040
facing commodity.
It meets all the the hurdles and

899
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,320
take it out.
But but either way, I think you

900
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:45,200
know, the final hurdle for next
Gen. is in February when they

901
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:49,040
get the final hearing and
they'll have a final approval

902
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:50,800
through.
And I said in Saskatchewan it's

903
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:52,360
a very mining friendly
jurisdiction.

904
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:53,880
So I don't expect anything
untoward.

905
00:51:54,240 --> 00:51:57,800
So we think they'll they'll
subsequently get taken out after

906
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:01,200
that time.
It's it's you're actually not

907
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:02,840
the first person to predict that
one Romano.

908
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,200
So we've got a we've got a trend
already here.

909
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:07,600
What is OK?
What is your most non consensus

910
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,200
prediction for the year ahead?
Well, you make a case for a lot

911
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:13,480
of things, can't you?
I mean, you certainly iron ore,

912
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:16,080
they're stronger for longer and
defies the analysts yet again.

913
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,240
And also oil, I mean, oil has
been indulgence for a couple of

914
00:52:20,240 --> 00:52:21,880
years.
And you know, as we sit here

915
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,920
today, it's almost impossible to
see what a catalyst could be.

916
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,480
And that's often when a
commodity does turn like we saw

917
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:30,120
with with him earlier in the
year, we're actually going to go

918
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:32,600
to with one that's in the
portfolio, which is West Africa,

919
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,720
Gold West.
We think that they've this

920
00:52:36,720 --> 00:52:40,240
process in Makena Farsi has been
traumatic for shareholders.

921
00:52:40,240 --> 00:52:43,560
But I think it's been more nerve
wracking than than is the

922
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:45,560
reality.
I think, you know, if you were

923
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,440
to look at the worst case
scenario, which is McKenna gets

924
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:53,640
another 35% stake for nothing,
you still get a $3.60 valuation

925
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:55,760
on WEF, which is stillwell north
of where it is.

926
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,400
We ascribe A1 or 2% probability
to that that outcome.

927
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,360
The government's come out and
said it has to be mutually

928
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:04,240
agreeable, mutually acceptable.
And I think I've wrote down a

929
00:53:04,240 --> 00:53:06,600
quote, a quote, UN quote.
It has to respect the German

930
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,760
interests of all parties.
So I think the most likely

931
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,640
scenario is that they get 5 to
10% extra.

932
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,360
They pay fifteen, $100 million,
so a fair price for it.

933
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:18,480
But then they give web
preferential status in terms of

934
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:22,240
developing new assets.
And that really is a much, much

935
00:53:22,240 --> 00:53:25,400
bigger win for Burkina because
it creates a much bigger pie.

936
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,680
You've suddenly got new
operations, new taxes, new

937
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,520
royalties, new jobs.
And the flow on effect for new

938
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,280
jobs is really critical.
And of course, you you send the

939
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:37,120
positive message that the
country is open for business.

940
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:40,240
So it becomes a win, win, win.
I think, you know, the

941
00:53:40,240 --> 00:53:43,280
government is is will see that
that's a much smarter option

942
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:46,080
than to try and squeeze the
existing lemon much harder.

943
00:53:47,240 --> 00:53:50,400
I like it Ramana and looking
forward to seeing KIAKA continue

944
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:52,240
to deliver in in the New year as
well.

945
00:53:52,240 --> 00:53:56,360
How about if we look at the
commodities to do best in 2026?

946
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,480
What are you thinking of there?
I think last year we went with

947
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,080
Mick Cole on gold and Mick Cole
was a bit of a stinker.

948
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:04,120
It's pretty much tracked
sideways for 12 months.

949
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:07,400
But I think, you know, gold the,
the fundamentals still remain

950
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,160
intact.
You've got two major drivers de

951
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:14,000
dollarization and devaluation.
You know, bricks are all looking

952
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,920
to to move away from US as a
reserve currency.

953
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,440
That's going to continue.
China's got somewhere between

954
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:24,440
2300 and 5000 tons of gold and
reserve 2330 officially, but

955
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:27,840
analysts think about 5000, the
US is at 8000 tonnes.

956
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,000
There's still a long way they
they can go before they meet

957
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,760
equilibrium.
And then devaluation, You know,

958
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,720
the big beautiful bill pretty
much guarantees budget deficits

959
00:54:36,720 --> 00:54:39,000
around about 6.8% for the next
three years.

960
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:44,160
That's double GDP, double GDP
growth to effectively devalue

961
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,000
your currency by three to 4% per
annum.

962
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:48,440
So who wants to buy a currency?
It's going to be down by 10 to

963
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:52,040
12% in three years time.
So central banks around the

964
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:53,920
world have to find somewhere
else to put their money.

965
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:56,360
There's not a lot of
alternatives, goals probably to

966
00:54:56,360 --> 00:55:00,120
stand down.
And the flip side, Romano are.

967
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,480
The worst one, yeah.
Yeah, I always struggle with

968
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,520
this.
Look, I have actually got one

969
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,240
for you this year.
I think mineral sands, if you

970
00:55:10,240 --> 00:55:14,200
look at, you know, past cycles,
it's really been an

971
00:55:14,240 --> 00:55:19,800
oligopolistic supply side.
Luke and the like have really

972
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:23,800
controlled supply to match
demand and so they've kept

973
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,640
prices probably higher than they
otherwise would be.

974
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:28,680
China's now into the supply
side.

975
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,800
You know, there are countries
running anti dam, anti dumping

976
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:36,320
sort of cases against China.
But nonetheless, I think the

977
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:38,520
supply side is irreversibly
changed.

978
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:41,680
I think moving forward, we're
going to see tighter margins.

979
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,040
Hey Prendival Norfolk Capital,
absolute pleasure to have you

980
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:48,120
back on the podcast and
participating in our predictions

981
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:51,120
episode for for this year.
What is your highest conviction

982
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:56,560
prediction for the year ahead?
I I think I'm just playing on

983
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,520
what's been successful for us
over the last six months.

984
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:05,720
Probably rare earth still, yeah,
I think it obviously plays a

985
00:56:05,720 --> 00:56:10,240
very important vital role even
in technological advancements.

986
00:56:10,240 --> 00:56:17,720
So AI based clean energy
robotics and I guess within that

987
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:22,000
railroad space, our highest
conviction prediction would have

988
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:27,520
to be Montreal Resources and
it's Ashram rare earth project.

989
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:34,160
And so that's at about a
45,000,000 EV at the moment and

990
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:38,480
it's the largest rare earth
asset in North America

991
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:41,960
undeveloped in Monozi.
It's got a big flow spa

992
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:45,600
component, high grade flow spa
component as well, which I think

993
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:49,480
will be become even more
important to that North American

994
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:55,600
supply chain over time.
So it's it's really an important

995
00:56:55,760 --> 00:57:00,960
asset for Canada and opening up
that Northern Quebec region and

996
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,560
it's probably even more
important to Western supply

997
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:08,000
chains as they attempt to
disconnect themselves from

998
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:11,240
China's dominance.
Beautiful, Pete.

999
00:57:11,240 --> 00:57:14,800
And when you think about your
most non consensus pick in the

1000
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:21,720
portfolio, what have you got?
Not too many this this this year

1001
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:23,280
round.
I think it's it's a better

1002
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:25,720
commodity backdrop than it has
been previously.

1003
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:32,600
But I think the one we've
identified was lithium producers

1004
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,960
might be trading a little heavy
for us.

1005
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:42,160
So I'm not sure how that'll go
down broadly in Perth, but you

1006
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:46,640
know, spot you make prices have
gone from 590 bucks to almost

1007
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:52,920
1150 SC 6.
And from our numbers we're

1008
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:59,320
seeing those those key ASX
lithium producers on average,

1009
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:02,640
you know they're priced at
around $1400 a tonne.

1010
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:07,480
So there's a bit of catching up
to do there in the price or

1011
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,800
something has to give a little
bit on the valuation grounds for

1012
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:15,440
those producers.
But you know there is a little

1013
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:18,000
bit of that idle mind supply
that still hasn't come back

1014
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:22,000
online from China.
But we think that's more of an

1015
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:27,000
inevitability and that will
probably put some pressure on

1016
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:30,440
the prices and in terms of the
equities.

1017
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,920
But that being said, I think
there's some really good

1018
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:40,280
valuation propositions in the
massively baking down

1019
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:46,400
exploration and development
equities for lithium.

1020
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:49,400
You know, it is a pretty nice
industry.

1021
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:52,360
So there is going to be a lot of
volatility.

1022
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:56,000
It is hard to sit here and say
that that's our non consensus

1023
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:59,920
view because we have been proved
wrong before.

1024
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:03,880
But just purely looking at it
from an evaluation backdrop, I

1025
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:07,160
think it's both producers are
trading a little above where we

1026
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:11,040
would expect.
I like your thinking, Pete.

1027
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:14,000
What is going to be the best
performing commodity for the

1028
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:18,400
next 12 months?
Yeah, so we tossed up between

1029
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:28,120
rare earths and HPA high purity
alumina, and I think it was just

1030
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,320
too hard to walk away from rare
earths.

1031
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,960
You've still got the China ban
on exports.

1032
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,480
You know, I know that.
Paused that for 12 months, but

1033
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:45,320
if you read the fine print, it's
the ban actually still remains

1034
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:50,680
on rare earths that are exported
for the purposes of strategic or

1035
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:54,320
military applications.
So China's still got a bit of a

1036
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:59,440
stronghold and control on what
actually leaves China.

1037
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:07,920
So how that unfolds, how that
moves into a agreement is still

1038
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,680
unclear.
But what is clear to us is that

1039
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:19,080
there is only two major rare
earth Western producers and

1040
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:24,440
refiners and Linus and MP.
Those mines take a decade to

1041
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:30,440
bring online and then even even
longer to process, create downs,

1042
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:35,200
training capability, DLE, innate
permit, construct Commission.

1043
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:42,280
And so the backdrop for that is
positive for rare earth pricing

1044
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:46,000
and its importance in feeding
that western supply chain and

1045
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,400
the amount of money I think that
governments will throw at it.

1046
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:56,680
So you know, between a of these
wind turbines, AI chips,

1047
01:00:57,160 --> 01:01:03,840
robotics, it's going to be hard
pressed to find supply for for

1048
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:08,160
Western world if, if China
continues to stranglehold that

1049
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,960
sector.
So I think where else is our our

1050
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:14,880
pick still and?
What are you bearish on for

1051
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:18,800
2026?
Bearish.

1052
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:24,280
As much as I hate to say it's
probably Cobalt, I think

1053
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:28,320
Cobalt's had a great run.
You know, it's up nearly 140%

1054
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:34,400
since February.
The price is still going up, but

1055
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:37,640
only it's only being
manufactured that way by the

1056
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:41,240
DRC.
The export ban earlier in the

1057
01:01:41,240 --> 01:01:51,200
year on cobalt provided a really
strong supply restriction and as

1058
01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:55,440
that's starting to unwind, you
know, they've implemented this

1059
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,600
quota system which allows
certain amount of cobalt to

1060
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,680
leave the DRC, but it's
continually being relaxed and

1061
01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:05,280
relaxed and that supply is just
building up in the background.

1062
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:11,520
You've got 290,000 tons of
production of cobalt annually

1063
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:17,880
and and you've got around 210 to
15 in in consumption and that's

1064
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:24,240
also being chipped away.
I guess it's decreasing as as

1065
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:29,360
the as the globe moves away from
nickel, manganese cobalt

1066
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:35,320
batteries towards LFP.
So you've got supply coming back

1067
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:39,800
on and the demand profile
softening in our view.

1068
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:43,160
So that's probably our most
performing commodity.

1069
01:02:43,760 --> 01:02:46,880
YJ Lee, fan favorite of Arcane
Capital.

1070
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,160
You've yeah, had a tremendous
year.

1071
01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:51,800
Some great calls.
We're very curious to to hear

1072
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:54,720
what your highest conviction
prediction for the year ahead

1073
01:02:54,720 --> 01:02:56,840
is.
Hello guys.

1074
01:02:56,960 --> 01:03:00,320
Yeah, it's great to be back here
and OK, since we're jumping

1075
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:02,600
right into it.
Well, my highest prediction for

1076
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:06,120
this year, I think it won't come
as a surprise to you.

1077
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,640
I think more and more brokers
are going to switch from their

1078
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:12,640
negative tone on the lithium
market to either a positive or

1079
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:16,320
even bullish tone.
You know, so the over this

1080
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:20,960
oversupply that they had been
forecasting from to last from 20

1081
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:26,640
through to 2028 or even 2032
will just magically disappear.

1082
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:31,280
They're probably going to switch
to balanced or deficit forecasts

1083
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:32,720
from even the start of next
year.

1084
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:36,000
So what I feel is that a lot of
these analysts, they are

1085
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:40,000
changing their narrative to
explain the price when the when

1086
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,880
the lithium price was, you know,
at an unsustainable level in the

1087
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:45,760
middle of the year.
Nobody stepped up to say that

1088
01:03:45,760 --> 01:03:49,080
energy storage was going to
drive demand up and balance the

1089
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:51,560
market.
Only after the price went up

1090
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:55,240
50%, then, you know, they said,
you know, oops, sorry, we're not

1091
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:57,120
going to raise our price
forecasts.

1092
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:01,240
Yeah, just three, 100%.
So there we go.

1093
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,920
That's I think more and more
analysts will still do that.

1094
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:06,640
Changing the narrative to match
the price.

1095
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:08,720
I love that.
How about your most non

1096
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:13,120
consensus view for 2026?
Well, there are a lot of people

1097
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:17,400
that are saying that copper is
going to do very, very well next

1098
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:19,280
year.
I'm I'm seeing forecasts of up

1099
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:23,840
to even 13,000 per tonne.
And so I'm, I'm going to come

1100
01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:28,120
out with a non consensus 1 here
and say copper could crash next

1101
01:04:28,120 --> 01:04:30,920
year.
Of course, like I could be

1102
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:35,280
completely wrong, but what I'm
seeing is K shaped economy in

1103
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:38,640
the US and only tech and AI are
doing really well.

1104
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:40,280
Everything is, you know, really
down.

1105
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,520
Consumer credit is at a record
$5 trillion.

1106
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:47,400
More than 700 US large companies
have gone bankrupt this year and

1107
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:49,840
this is the highest rate since
2010.

1108
01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:54,880
You know, US truck demand is
down 47% quarter on quarter.

1109
01:04:55,320 --> 01:04:59,640
Construction, industrial,
freight activity, it's all down.

1110
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:02,680
So there's a lot of negative
economic news that's just been

1111
01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:07,000
ignored by broad markets, which
have surged record highs and are

1112
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:10,280
staying at record highs just
because of maybe because of the

1113
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:14,360
incoming rate cut, but mostly
just held up by tech at AI.

1114
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:19,600
It's yeah, a pretty stark
observation, YJ What is going to

1115
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:22,760
be the the best performing
commodity for the year ahead?

1116
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:25,960
Well, I'm not called the raging
lithium bull for nothing.

1117
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:29,160
I'm sticking with it.
No, but if you had asked me this

1118
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:32,280
question last year, I would have
said silver first, then lithium

1119
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:35,640
because I did see that silver
was going to outperform faster

1120
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:37,800
than lithium.
And I think that really happened

1121
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:40,080
this year.
I'm going to flip that around

1122
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:42,560
and I'm going to say lithium
then silver.

1123
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:46,840
No, no, I'm not kidding.
So I can see a scenario with a

1124
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:51,120
very decent probability where
lithium goes to about two 100K

1125
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:55,720
Chinese yuan and that would be
more than 100% up from where we

1126
01:05:55,720 --> 01:06:01,520
are today.
And I think that's not just a

1127
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:05,680
low probability event.
Silver could go to $100.00 an

1128
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:09,760
ounce and that's from where it
is at 50 plus low 50s today.

1129
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:14,720
That's just under 100% upside.
So I don't see any.

1130
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:18,120
I don't see many other metals
markets that could have this

1131
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:21,880
potential range unless they are
really small volume niche

1132
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:24,560
metals.
Yeah, Yeah.

1133
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,760
I like the conviction you have
in in your views there as well.

1134
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:31,280
YJ And the last but not least
question, what are the

1135
01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:34,160
commodities or commodities
specifically that you think

1136
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:38,880
won't do well?
Again, probably going on a limb

1137
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:43,440
here, I'm going to say oil
because I think everyone is

1138
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:46,640
still under estimating the
amount of demand substitution

1139
01:06:46,640 --> 01:06:50,880
that's happening, not just
because of EVs in the passenger

1140
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:53,360
vehicles, but also in electric
trucks.

1141
01:06:53,880 --> 01:06:56,240
So the truck theme has been
something I've been pounding on

1142
01:06:56,240 --> 01:06:59,120
for the little market.
I first started pounding the

1143
01:06:59,120 --> 01:07:02,360
table on energy storage and then
trucks.

1144
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:06,680
And look, the numbers out of
China are quite amazing. 22% of

1145
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:09,200
all trucks, heavy trucks in
China in the first half of the

1146
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:11,520
year were electric.
New, new sales.

1147
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:15,840
CATL is pushing for 50% of all
trucks to be electric, but by

1148
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:19,200
2028.
Now this follows, you know, the

1149
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:23,160
pattern of high volume users
transitioning to EVs first

1150
01:07:23,160 --> 01:07:26,760
because they make back the money
from not burning diesel or

1151
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:30,920
petrol so much quicker.
And by virtue of them being high

1152
01:07:30,920 --> 01:07:34,520
volume users, the all demand
impact is much, much higher than

1153
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,400
the vehicle number new sales
suggest.

1154
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:42,480
Consider that taxis drive 300
kilometres a day versus a

1155
01:07:42,480 --> 01:07:48,160
typical cars 50 kilometres.
That's a 6X impact of a single

1156
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:51,840
new taxi being electric taxi
being sold than a new passenger

1157
01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:53,960
car.
So what's happening on the

1158
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:58,800
bigger picture is that many of
these high use freight vehicles,

1159
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:02,320
whether they are commercial
large trucks or taxis, they're

1160
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:05,480
going to account for a much
bigger volume of oil demand

1161
01:08:05,880 --> 01:08:08,200
reduction than most people
realize.

1162
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:11,320
And I think that hits the oil
market sooner than people think.

1163
01:08:11,880 --> 01:08:15,880
George Cheverly, 91, you are the
portfolio manager of the Global

1164
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:19,439
Gold Strategy as well as Co PM
on the Natural Resources

1165
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:21,120
Strategy.
We are delighted to have you on

1166
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:23,479
the show and I'm looking forward
to hearing what your highest

1167
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:25,600
conviction prediction is for
2026.

1168
01:08:27,279 --> 01:08:29,439
Yeah, thanks guys.
It's great to be on the show.

1169
01:08:30,359 --> 01:08:34,800
So my highest conviction is I, I
quite like large gaps to some

1170
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:39,240
extent and actually it's stock
have been critical in the past.

1171
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:42,240
But actually going to 26, I'm
pretty keen on Glencoe.

1172
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:47,040
And the way I've put it is I've
put it as three ways to win.

1173
01:08:48,359 --> 01:08:51,880
The first one is the obvious 1
copper looks pretty good going

1174
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:54,120
into 26, obviously a record high
price.

1175
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:57,800
But I think we're quite squeezy
here, particularly the first few

1176
01:08:57,800 --> 01:08:59,880
months.
And I'm pretty keen.

1177
01:08:59,880 --> 01:09:03,040
I think coal we've bottomed and
we should see progress on coal

1178
01:09:03,040 --> 01:09:06,439
prices and that's going to be
pretty good for the company as a

1179
01:09:06,439 --> 01:09:08,680
whole.
The second one, which is a bit

1180
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:12,000
more controversial is I think
we're finally seeing signs of an

1181
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:15,880
operational turn around.
And I think the new CEO Javier

1182
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:18,880
has come in and he's been there
two years now.

1183
01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:22,439
And the what we see in a Katanga
is signs of real progress.

1184
01:09:22,439 --> 01:09:24,600
They've actually turned that
mind around and we're starting

1185
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:27,520
to hit proper grades.
And if they can start doing that

1186
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:31,040
through the portfolio, I think
we will actually, for the first

1187
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:33,680
time in a long time, see
Glencore starting to hit some of

1188
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,319
those numbers.
People a bit disappointed about

1189
01:09:36,319 --> 01:09:39,000
the Kiwasi guidance, but I don't
think that's a problem.

1190
01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:43,120
We know that and I think we can
see people get more confidence

1191
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:46,920
that Glencore's actually a
mining company, not just a

1192
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:51,840
trader with some mines.
And the third one is really

1193
01:09:51,840 --> 01:09:55,120
aligned to that is I do think we
have M and a potential on both

1194
01:09:55,120 --> 01:09:56,560
sides.
I think they could sell some

1195
01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:58,920
assets and there's always a
chance they do get acquired.

1196
01:09:58,920 --> 01:10:00,760
We get some consolidation
industry.

1197
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:04,680
So I just like the stock because
I'm not just betting on copper

1198
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:07,080
or one thing.
I think there's various factors

1199
01:10:07,080 --> 01:10:09,200
that could drive this stock into
26.

1200
01:10:09,560 --> 01:10:12,480
I really have to bite my tongue
from asking a follow up there

1201
01:10:12,480 --> 01:10:15,960
George, but what is your your
most non consensus prediction

1202
01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:24,080
for for 2026?
I I think zinc and and that's

1203
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:28,960
really around the supply side.
So obviously Antamina had a big

1204
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:32,280
zinc here this year and that
drops off next year and we go

1205
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:37,560
back from 4:50 to sort of 250 or
so and then red dogs coming off

1206
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:39,000
as well.
Grades declining there.

1207
01:10:39,000 --> 01:10:43,120
We're going to lose a bit longer
term, but 200,000 tons over the

1208
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,520
next sort of three years or so
out of red dogs.

1209
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:48,120
So you've got two of the largest
zinc mines in the world

1210
01:10:48,600 --> 01:10:52,520
basically coming off quite hard
and and not much new coming on.

1211
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:54,800
I mean some stuff but, but not a
lot.

1212
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:58,840
And I think zinc actually it's
done OK, but I, I think it could

1213
01:10:58,840 --> 01:11:02,480
perform very well really mainly
from a supply point of view,

1214
01:11:02,480 --> 01:11:06,680
assuming demands, OK.
We, I think that could be, you

1215
01:11:06,680 --> 01:11:08,600
know, actually a commodity
sneaks up.

1216
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:12,200
The only problem I have with
zinc is it's not easy to play

1217
01:11:12,200 --> 01:11:14,120
zinc.
And from an equity point of

1218
01:11:14,120 --> 01:11:17,520
view, they're on, they're either
small or not that liquid.

1219
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:21,440
It does slightly help my sync my
Glencore point of view as well I

1220
01:11:21,440 --> 01:11:23,640
guess, but.
Yeah, Yeah.

1221
01:11:23,640 --> 01:11:25,960
One that certainly flies under
the radar there.

1222
01:11:26,280 --> 01:11:30,080
If we park up zinc and perhaps
METCO, if you're sort of bullish

1223
01:11:30,080 --> 01:11:32,320
on that outlook, is there
another commodity that you're

1224
01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:38,280
quite constructive about for 26?
Well, yeah, I mean, if I'm

1225
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:41,720
looking commodities I'm
constructive about it would be

1226
01:11:41,720 --> 01:11:46,400
rhodium and I could say platinum
as well.

1227
01:11:46,400 --> 01:11:48,200
But I think rhodium has a
chance.

1228
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:54,040
You know, we saw 30,000 and 21
and we certainly maybe not

1229
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:56,880
30,000, but could see rhodium
has done well this year, but

1230
01:11:56,880 --> 01:12:00,920
could see it doubling into next
year and that's really more

1231
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:04,760
hybrids, longer range vehicles
in China using rhodium.

1232
01:12:05,480 --> 01:12:08,680
We've also seen the fiberglass
industry in China try to

1233
01:12:09,240 --> 01:12:12,800
substitute away from rhodium and
it failed and they've had to

1234
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:14,640
come back in.
That's what's driven sort of

1235
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:17,160
demand this year.
But I see that continuing.

1236
01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:21,040
And then I think on the supply
side, obviously we know primary

1237
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:24,440
supply is hard, but the recycle
supply, we're coming to that

1238
01:12:24,440 --> 01:12:26,320
period.
You know, I'm old.

1239
01:12:26,320 --> 01:12:29,320
If you go back, we're now coming
to a period where car makers

1240
01:12:29,320 --> 01:12:32,560
have drifted rhodium out.
So there's going to be less

1241
01:12:32,560 --> 01:12:36,840
recycling coming through because
there were low rhodium loadings

1242
01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:38,200
in those cars coming down to
life.

1243
01:12:38,440 --> 01:12:41,520
And in fact, if they were close
to end of life, they all got

1244
01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:45,560
recycled when we hit 30,021.
So I think we've lost that

1245
01:12:45,560 --> 01:12:47,600
higher rhodium catalytic
converters.

1246
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:50,640
I like the call, George.
You know, that was actually JD's

1247
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:53,840
call for last year, Rhodium.
So great minds think like what's

1248
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,760
going to be the worst performing
commodity for the year ahead?

1249
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:03,200
So I don't think this is very, I
hate to say, I don't think rare

1250
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,720
earth's going to do very well.
I think, you know, I think that

1251
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:08,840
problem gets solved as we go
through the year, maybe a bit

1252
01:13:08,840 --> 01:13:12,640
early.
But you know, I think I think

1253
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:14,680
it's a very niche place.
So it's not something I've

1254
01:13:14,680 --> 01:13:17,080
played very much.
But I don't think rare earth

1255
01:13:17,080 --> 01:13:19,280
prices are going to stay high
forever.

1256
01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:21,480
I think everybody's trying to
solve that problem.

1257
01:13:21,800 --> 01:13:25,640
So I would say rare earth if I'm
going to have another go and

1258
01:13:25,640 --> 01:13:29,040
this absolutely flies against my
first pick.

1259
01:13:29,720 --> 01:13:33,760
I do think, and I do worry that
after a very strong first half,

1260
01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:38,520
something could suffer.
second-half is copper and and

1261
01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:41,440
that is just if supply starts to
come through and we get a

1262
01:13:41,440 --> 01:13:44,040
slowdown in the world economy,
then I think it could be

1263
01:13:44,040 --> 01:13:46,040
vulnerable.
But I'm, I'm bullish right now,

1264
01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:49,720
but I, you know, year's time
copper lower.

1265
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:51,840
I wouldn't.
I wouldn't be totally surprised.

1266
01:13:52,240 --> 01:13:54,880
Tom Solomon Parlor Investments,
mate, you've dialed in on your

1267
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:57,600
honeymoon in Bora Bora.
I'm just envious.

1268
01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:01,280
It looks, looks beautiful where
you are, but where it's stoked

1269
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:03,040
that you're thrilled to
contribute to our predictions

1270
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,760
even on your honeymoon.
Thanks for thanks for thanks for

1271
01:14:05,760 --> 01:14:06,880
coming in, mate.
And what is your highest

1272
01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:08,600
conviction prediction for the
year end?

1273
01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:12,320
Thank you very much guys, great
to speak with you again.

1274
01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:15,720
What can I say enjoying life
because I was not long honeymoon

1275
01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:20,960
so but I am on my honeymoon.
Look if.

1276
01:14:23,080 --> 01:14:25,840
If you know, if we go into my
highest convicted idea through

1277
01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:29,680
the year, it's actually royal
gold clearly supported by a

1278
01:14:29,680 --> 01:14:33,520
constructive gold price outlook.
I still see immense value across

1279
01:14:33,520 --> 01:14:36,240
the sector, but I think royalty
names are really underperformed

1280
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:41,000
here as a narrow sort of pool of
capital has really chased what

1281
01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:44,080
we chased sort of operational as
well as financial leverage.

1282
01:14:45,200 --> 01:14:48,720
Look, I, I think royal gold or
maybe six months too early

1283
01:14:48,720 --> 01:14:52,720
through through a few of these,
maybe six months too early when

1284
01:14:52,720 --> 01:14:55,160
it comes to the royalty names.
But I think they're going to be

1285
01:14:55,160 --> 01:14:57,880
the key beneficiaries of the of
the brownfield and Greenfield

1286
01:14:57,880 --> 01:15:00,360
expansions that we see under
this higher gold price

1287
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:03,360
environment, especially as more
generalist money comes into the

1288
01:15:03,360 --> 01:15:06,120
sector.
So although this pick may be a

1289
01:15:06,120 --> 01:15:09,200
little boring for some of your
listeners, I have been wrong on

1290
01:15:09,200 --> 01:15:11,720
the gold price prediction before
and I think the risk reward

1291
01:15:11,720 --> 01:15:15,280
looks looks very good here.
Really the main thesis behind

1292
01:15:15,280 --> 01:15:19,520
this name is that since their
Sandstorm target, sorry, since

1293
01:15:19,520 --> 01:15:23,280
they announced to buy Sandstorm
earlier in the year, they have

1294
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:26,320
significantly underperformed
Market did not like that.

1295
01:15:26,320 --> 01:15:30,040
This was not a creative on a per
share basis when it came to when

1296
01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:31,920
it actually comes to gold
equivalent Oz.

1297
01:15:32,720 --> 01:15:36,000
So although Sandstorm has a
higher sort of MPV weighting

1298
01:15:36,000 --> 01:15:38,680
towards these growth assets, the
market did not like that.

1299
01:15:39,360 --> 01:15:41,560
However, they've done two other
acquisitions since then.

1300
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:46,000
The portfolio highly diversified
remains 90% gold, silver and

1301
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:48,640
compared to the largest peers,
Franco and Wheaton, it's half

1302
01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:51,800
the EV bazaar twice the free
cash flow being the third

1303
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:53,480
largest market cap of the
royalties.

1304
01:15:53,480 --> 01:15:55,400
It's even cheaper than a Cisco
and triple flag.

1305
01:15:55,800 --> 01:15:59,240
To sum it up, since the since
the acquisition announcement in

1306
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:05,120
July, Royal Gold's up 13%, GDX
up 55% and Gold up 27.

1307
01:16:06,560 --> 01:16:08,880
So that's that one.
But look, I know that this is a

1308
01:16:08,880 --> 01:16:13,040
little unorthodox, but given
that name is so boring and I do

1309
01:16:13,040 --> 01:16:17,160
maybe want to take the win next
year from the highest return,

1310
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:19,400
I'd like to propose another.
Give us, give us.

1311
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:21,920
Yeah, mate.
Yeah, give us a small cap.

1312
01:16:23,920 --> 01:16:25,920
A little bit spicy.
And for those that can take the

1313
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:30,640
volatility EQ resources, I'll
keep the rationale short.

1314
01:16:30,640 --> 01:16:33,320
I know a few of other people
there are talking down antimony

1315
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:35,960
and tungsten.
But look, the new team headed by

1316
01:16:35,960 --> 01:16:39,120
Craig probably has the most sort
of pedigree within this niche

1317
01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:41,840
commodity and they've shown that
they can turn these assets

1318
01:16:41,840 --> 01:16:44,240
around.
Spanish assets been free cash

1319
01:16:44,240 --> 01:16:49,040
flow positive since the months
of August and September and

1320
01:16:49,040 --> 01:16:51,680
Mount Carbine up in Queensland,
they should be there in the

1321
01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:54,320
March quarter, free cash flow
positive as they reach the high

1322
01:16:54,320 --> 01:16:56,120
grade or from the simple push
back.

1323
01:16:56,840 --> 01:17:01,360
Now look tungsten prices, as we
all know they're up at 760 DMTU,

1324
01:17:01,360 --> 01:17:05,000
up from 340 start of the year.
Tough for me to bang the table

1325
01:17:05,000 --> 01:17:09,320
to say prices go high from here.
But with China controlling 80%

1326
01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:11,320
of the market, whether that's
due to and they're having

1327
01:17:11,320 --> 01:17:13,840
issues, whether due to quotas or
mine issues, I think the

1328
01:17:13,840 --> 01:17:16,920
geopolitical uncertainty
remains, the defense requirement

1329
01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:20,080
remains and I struggle to see
any other Western supply coming

1330
01:17:20,080 --> 01:17:22,280
to market in the near term to
ruin this for them.

1331
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:25,200
So these guys, they're going to
be the largest Western producer

1332
01:17:25,200 --> 01:17:27,560
shortly and generating
significant free cash.

1333
01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:30,800
I like it.
We haven't had a a royalties

1334
01:17:30,800 --> 01:17:33,120
pick just yet either.
So that's a bit different as

1335
01:17:33,120 --> 01:17:35,080
well.
Tom, when you when you put your

1336
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:38,280
contrarian hat on and you think
really non consensus, what is

1337
01:17:38,280 --> 01:17:40,040
the pick that comes to mind for
next?

1338
01:17:40,040 --> 01:17:43,760
Year mate.
I'm also hoping to win this pick

1339
01:17:43,760 --> 01:17:48,400
as well as the most non
consensus counter consensus we

1340
01:17:48,680 --> 01:17:49,880
should make you wanna say
graphite.

1341
01:17:50,600 --> 01:17:54,400
Oh, OK.
I I I think I'm in for a running

1342
01:17:54,400 --> 01:17:56,440
here now.
I would like to be specific.

1343
01:17:56,440 --> 01:18:00,400
This Is Us graphite anodes is
where I'm constructive.

1344
01:18:00,760 --> 01:18:03,840
So I'm not saying flake
graphite, which I know has

1345
01:18:03,840 --> 01:18:06,840
burned and is still burning a
lot of Aussie investors.

1346
01:18:08,120 --> 01:18:11,920
But to me story simple with
graphite nearly half, half the

1347
01:18:11,920 --> 01:18:14,920
way to the battery is graphite.
But everyone's focused on the

1348
01:18:14,920 --> 01:18:16,920
cathode and lithium started to
move.

1349
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:20,040
Everyone's excited about
stationary storage just as

1350
01:18:20,040 --> 01:18:23,680
positive for graphite.
Look demand for battery.

1351
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:27,120
So graphite battery demand is
approaching next year will be

1352
01:18:27,120 --> 01:18:30,680
over 50% of graphite demand, up
from 3% in 2020.

1353
01:18:30,680 --> 01:18:34,440
So batteries are now having an
outsized impact on this.

1354
01:18:35,440 --> 01:18:38,320
And then if we look at the USI
mean battery demand is or

1355
01:18:38,360 --> 01:18:41,400
graphite demand if the batteries
is growing 4 fold between now

1356
01:18:41,400 --> 01:18:45,240
and now and 2030.
So and that's even before we put

1357
01:18:45,240 --> 01:18:46,920
in those stationary storage
figures.

1358
01:18:48,440 --> 01:18:52,360
Look then if you look at
graphite anodes, 99% is

1359
01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:55,360
controlled by China.
This is the greatest analogy to

1360
01:18:55,360 --> 01:18:57,840
rare earths and the MPDL that
I've seen.

1361
01:18:58,400 --> 01:19:01,080
So the West, we're not short
upstream graphite, we're not

1362
01:19:01,080 --> 01:19:04,000
sure Petco, we're not short
flight graphite, but we're

1363
01:19:04,000 --> 01:19:07,960
entirely reliant on Chinese
processing technology, which is

1364
01:19:07,960 --> 01:19:11,440
highly carbon intensive.
So I think we do see a

1365
01:19:11,440 --> 01:19:14,760
decoupling in those supply
chains driven by both U.S. trade

1366
01:19:14,760 --> 01:19:19,560
policy and Chinese export
control measures in May

1367
01:19:19,560 --> 01:19:22,880
Countervailing duties from the
US announced in July, anti

1368
01:19:22,880 --> 01:19:26,560
dumping effective tariffs on
active and own materials are now

1369
01:19:26,600 --> 01:19:31,920
160% into the US.
So this is not something that

1370
01:19:31,920 --> 01:19:33,640
changes with the true social
post.

1371
01:19:33,680 --> 01:19:35,560
This is actually there, this is
coming.

1372
01:19:36,480 --> 01:19:39,760
And so to me, I feel, I feel
compelled that this is the next

1373
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:43,880
sort of rare earth MP story.
I'm also positive sort of

1374
01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:45,560
picking this one because it's an
opaque market.

1375
01:19:45,560 --> 01:19:47,480
So it's going to be very
difficult for you guys to say I

1376
01:19:47,480 --> 01:19:52,720
was right or wrong.
But look, I think there are a

1377
01:19:52,720 --> 01:19:54,880
few, there are only a few
players that can provide this

1378
01:19:54,880 --> 01:19:57,480
domestically or in friendly
nations and they're gonna do

1379
01:19:57,480 --> 01:19:59,920
deals with the likes of
Panasonic, all of the cell

1380
01:19:59,920 --> 01:20:02,840
manufacturers, the OEMs and
they'll meet in the middle of

1381
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:06,720
that 160% tariff to get our long
term off takes.

1382
01:20:06,880 --> 01:20:12,680
What are those types?
Mate, Novonix, Nu, Vermont,

1383
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:15,000
look, CRR is still there.
They're having some, a few

1384
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:17,720
qualification issues with Tesla
at the moment, as I'm sure

1385
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:20,880
everyone's well aware.
I don't have a view on that.

1386
01:20:21,160 --> 01:20:24,000
But look, there are a few guys
that are really scrambling to do

1387
01:20:24,000 --> 01:20:27,120
this.
Talga as well doesn't have US

1388
01:20:27,120 --> 01:20:29,160
production.
But again, if you as long as

1389
01:20:29,160 --> 01:20:32,240
you're not importing from China,
then you should be a sort of

1390
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:34,880
indirect beneficiary of this.
Wicked, mate.

1391
01:20:34,960 --> 01:20:37,520
And what about the best
performing commodity for the

1392
01:20:37,520 --> 01:20:40,560
year ahead?
Look, guys, last time I sat with

1393
01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:44,120
you, I was bullish yellow cake
uranium.

1394
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:48,120
I'm still there.
So maintaining that call despite

1395
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:51,000
a bit of volatility.
Look, clearly that story's been

1396
01:20:51,000 --> 01:20:54,440
clouded a bit this year given
the development of the nuclear

1397
01:20:54,440 --> 01:20:57,200
rather than the uranium trade
and a bit of a meme stock in a

1398
01:20:57,200 --> 01:21:00,160
few of the names such as OCLO
and the like, which I'm sure

1399
01:21:00,160 --> 01:21:02,480
I've got attention from, from
quite a few people.

1400
01:21:03,440 --> 01:21:05,920
But look, if we look over the
last sort of few months,

1401
01:21:05,920 --> 01:21:09,240
downgrades in production from
sort of chemical MacArthur River

1402
01:21:09,240 --> 01:21:13,080
because out of problems 10%
decrease in subsoil Aladdin

1403
01:21:13,160 --> 01:21:17,600
BOSS, if you weren't aware
Honeymoon had an issue or but

1404
01:21:17,600 --> 01:21:19,960
that.
But again, that is not now BOSS

1405
01:21:19,960 --> 01:21:21,360
is actually performing very
well.

1406
01:21:21,600 --> 01:21:24,480
It's about the further growth
and that sort of deficit and

1407
01:21:24,480 --> 01:21:27,880
pushing that, pushing that
supply deficit further out on

1408
01:21:27,880 --> 01:21:30,400
the demand side.
Look, Trump gave executive

1409
01:21:30,400 --> 01:21:33,440
orders supporting this in May.
Most recently, the Westinghouse

1410
01:21:33,440 --> 01:21:36,440
build out China's approved even
more reactors.

1411
01:21:36,440 --> 01:21:39,840
And on our numbers, they're
going to be the largest buyer by

1412
01:21:39,840 --> 01:21:42,200
the end of the decade.
You've seen positive

1413
01:21:42,200 --> 01:21:43,760
developments.
India, Sweden.

1414
01:21:44,160 --> 01:21:48,200
I can, I know I can keep going.
The other one is small modular.

1415
01:21:48,280 --> 01:21:51,240
Small modular reactors have been
driving headlines.

1416
01:21:51,880 --> 01:21:54,800
Although they require much
higher initial feeding, they

1417
01:21:54,800 --> 01:21:57,480
don't drive the market tightness
on our model in the near term.

1418
01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:01,640
So look, we've said it before,
uranium is different from other

1419
01:22:01,640 --> 01:22:03,920
commodities.
Demand and consumption are two

1420
01:22:03,920 --> 01:22:08,600
very different things.
But we're extremely constructive

1421
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:12,080
on the premise that once Western
utilities wake up to the fact

1422
01:22:12,400 --> 01:22:15,640
that China is dominating this
demand that we're actually going

1423
01:22:15,640 --> 01:22:18,720
to see market tightness.
What came out of left field, and

1424
01:22:18,800 --> 01:22:22,440
I'm not making excuses for
alcohol, we did very well in the

1425
01:22:22,440 --> 01:22:24,200
uranium and nuclear sector this
year.

1426
01:22:24,800 --> 01:22:30,240
But US utilities released £17
million from the market, OK?

1427
01:22:30,280 --> 01:22:34,400
So that's eating into their
current inventories and not

1428
01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:36,240
replenishing that by buying in
the market.

1429
01:22:36,240 --> 01:22:39,160
So that's 14% of their
stockpiles, OK.

1430
01:22:39,160 --> 01:22:43,480
So I think we're a spring coil
waiting to happen once this in

1431
01:22:43,480 --> 01:22:47,160
this environment of energy
security and promising and maybe

1432
01:22:47,160 --> 01:22:50,040
all we need now, which I think
is a very high likelihood is the

1433
01:22:50,120 --> 01:22:51,840
US announcing a domestic
stockpile.

1434
01:22:51,840 --> 01:22:54,280
I think Trump is supportive of
nuclear and that could come

1435
01:22:54,280 --> 01:22:56,760
through and maybe that's the
catalyst to move us forward.

1436
01:22:58,920 --> 01:23:00,880
I'm, I'm really intrigued, Tom.
And what about the worst

1437
01:23:00,880 --> 01:23:03,080
performing commodity of the year
ahead?

1438
01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:06,760
Man, I actually struggled here.
I was going to say iron ore, but

1439
01:23:06,760 --> 01:23:09,240
I figured every man and his
dog's jumping on Siemandu,

1440
01:23:09,240 --> 01:23:11,000
ramping up, probably going to
say that.

1441
01:23:11,000 --> 01:23:14,960
So being the contrarian that I
am, I'm going to say zinc.

1442
01:23:16,160 --> 01:23:18,800
Look, this is more of a funding
short rather than an outright

1443
01:23:18,800 --> 01:23:21,720
bearish call.
The market's in a small deficit

1444
01:23:21,720 --> 01:23:25,000
this year, mine supply and
smells production growing into

1445
01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:27,120
next year and that's expected to
continue.

1446
01:23:27,480 --> 01:23:30,080
But I think the main shift,
China is switching from a net

1447
01:23:30,080 --> 01:23:33,400
importer of 500,000 tons of
refined metal to

1448
01:23:33,400 --> 01:23:36,400
self-sufficiency next year and
even the possibility of

1449
01:23:36,400 --> 01:23:40,040
exporting if the ARB, if the ARB
actually opens up.

1450
01:23:40,640 --> 01:23:43,640
So therefore zinc prices could
actually decouple from copper

1451
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:46,600
and it could be a nice little
funding short to use there.

1452
01:23:46,920 --> 01:23:50,600
Will Thompson Massive capital
hope you've had a massive year

1453
01:23:50,760 --> 01:23:54,240
and we're delighted to get your
predictions for the year ahead.

1454
01:23:54,240 --> 01:23:55,920
Kick us off with what is your
highest conviction?

1455
01:23:55,920 --> 01:24:00,160
Prediction for 26 so.
I don't have a lot of high

1456
01:24:00,160 --> 01:24:03,200
conviction sort of like general
macro commodity sort of

1457
01:24:03,200 --> 01:24:08,920
thematics.
But I do think that Magnum

1458
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:13,000
Mining ticker symbol and ICU out
of Canada will have a good year.

1459
01:24:13,880 --> 01:24:20,280
And I do think Larvato golden
antimony mine out in over over

1460
01:24:20,280 --> 01:24:22,640
with you guys in Australia will
have a good year.

1461
01:24:23,240 --> 01:24:26,400
Both are going to be you know,
putting mines into production or

1462
01:24:26,440 --> 01:24:32,000
or coming close and growth
critical metals, et cetera.

1463
01:24:32,000 --> 01:24:34,640
So I think they'll they'll both
have good strong years next

1464
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:35,760
year.
That would be my highest

1465
01:24:35,760 --> 01:24:38,720
conviction to the larger
positions in My Portfolio as

1466
01:24:38,720 --> 01:24:40,400
well.
Couple of stock picks I like it

1467
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:41,680
will.
How about your most non

1468
01:24:41,680 --> 01:24:43,880
consensus view when you look in
the market right now I'm.

1469
01:24:46,080 --> 01:24:49,840
Going to go with I think Global
Atomic gets funded by the US

1470
01:24:49,840 --> 01:24:51,880
government for their DASA
project.

1471
01:24:52,280 --> 01:24:56,240
Is it coming before Christmas?
Before Christmas, I don't know

1472
01:24:56,240 --> 01:24:58,920
about before Christmas, I'd love
it before Christmas, but I'm

1473
01:24:58,920 --> 01:25:02,720
thinking first quarter of next
year and I think they end up

1474
01:25:02,720 --> 01:25:08,480
being the best uranium stock
performance next year.

1475
01:25:09,320 --> 01:25:12,680
I like the call and what is
going to be the best performing

1476
01:25:12,680 --> 01:25:16,280
commodity Will.
I think it's actually going to

1477
01:25:16,280 --> 01:25:19,920
be oil and natural gas, which is
also probably non consensus.

1478
01:25:20,520 --> 01:25:21,840
Everyone's worried about the
glut.

1479
01:25:21,840 --> 01:25:29,560
I think the glut is more of a
paper glut and paper surplus if

1480
01:25:29,560 --> 01:25:31,600
you will.
Demand forecasts are

1481
01:25:31,600 --> 01:25:35,640
conservative, could surprise the
upside supply looks robust now,

1482
01:25:35,640 --> 01:25:40,200
but years of underinvestment and
then you know geopolitical risk,

1483
01:25:40,200 --> 01:25:44,560
OPEC risk, etcetera.
I think there's plenty of room

1484
01:25:44,560 --> 01:25:48,560
for what is in some regards the
most hated commodity right now

1485
01:25:48,560 --> 01:25:51,400
that outperform next year.
Yeah, certain.

1486
01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:54,960
Certainly hated Will.
And last but not least, what is

1487
01:25:54,960 --> 01:25:57,840
the commodity that's going to
perform worst over 2026?

1488
01:25:59,160 --> 01:26:01,080
So I struggled a little bit with
that one.

1489
01:26:01,440 --> 01:26:05,160
I'm actually going to go with a
group of commodity producers.

1490
01:26:05,920 --> 01:26:10,200
So I think rare earth metals
will have a really rough go of

1491
01:26:10,200 --> 01:26:13,600
it or or at least the producers,
the metals themselves, different

1492
01:26:13,600 --> 01:26:16,280
story.
But I think, you know, 2025

1493
01:26:16,280 --> 01:26:22,520
rally was sort of poster child
for loss making barely

1494
01:26:22,520 --> 01:26:26,480
profitable at today's prices
businesses with investors

1495
01:26:26,480 --> 01:26:31,560
paying, you know, growth stock
multiples for highly cyclical,

1496
01:26:32,560 --> 01:26:39,120
challenging commodity companies.
So I think 20262027, it's going

1497
01:26:39,120 --> 01:26:41,560
to be tough years for rare earth
producers.

1498
01:26:41,600 --> 01:26:46,120
So Emmanuel Debt Capital, we're
delighted that you can join us

1499
01:26:46,120 --> 01:26:48,920
before Christmas.
I know things are are very busy,

1500
01:26:48,920 --> 01:26:52,400
but we're eagerly keen to hear
what you've got in store for us.

1501
01:26:52,680 --> 01:26:55,680
What is your highest conviction?
Prediction for 2026.

1502
01:26:56,600 --> 01:26:58,560
Yeah.
Thanks for having us Travan.

1503
01:26:58,560 --> 01:27:05,640
JD, My highest conviction
prediction for 2026 is a stock

1504
01:27:05,640 --> 01:27:09,560
that we know well and we've
spoken about in the past WA one

1505
01:27:09,560 --> 01:27:13,840
which is absolutely making some
amazing progress.

1506
01:27:14,040 --> 01:27:17,800
We've seen in recent weeks the
project being granted major

1507
01:27:17,800 --> 01:27:22,360
project status, which we believe
will significantly speed up

1508
01:27:22,360 --> 01:27:26,000
permitting.
And we've also seen on the on

1509
01:27:26,000 --> 01:27:30,400
the sort of satellite imagery
airstrip being knocked up on

1510
01:27:30,400 --> 01:27:32,680
site very quickly that will
speed development.

1511
01:27:33,520 --> 01:27:38,080
And the third link to that is
we've also seen the incredible

1512
01:27:38,560 --> 01:27:41,560
metallurgical breakthrough of
the production of niobium oxide

1513
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:44,920
from loonies ore.
I think what's really exciting

1514
01:27:44,920 --> 01:27:50,120
us for 2026 is, you know, we're
seeing almost every month new

1515
01:27:50,120 --> 01:27:53,440
applications and addressability
of niobium in future facing

1516
01:27:53,440 --> 01:27:56,040
technologies.
And to us, you know, the world

1517
01:27:56,040 --> 01:27:59,720
is just absolutely crying out
for diversified supply to

1518
01:28:00,120 --> 01:28:03,280
progress these advanced
technologies, you know, things

1519
01:28:03,280 --> 01:28:08,480
like niobium phosphide, which is
a superconductor, niobium oxide,

1520
01:28:08,600 --> 01:28:12,040
which is being, you know, used
in battery anodes.

1521
01:28:12,240 --> 01:28:14,320
All these sort of elements
really excite us.

1522
01:28:14,720 --> 01:28:18,480
And you know, I think that the
question really comes down to

1523
01:28:18,480 --> 01:28:20,200
what well, what's the value
right.

1524
01:28:20,200 --> 01:28:23,000
And going going back to
something that you and JD have

1525
01:28:23,000 --> 01:28:25,800
mentioned a few times is that
the value of a multi

1526
01:28:25,800 --> 01:28:29,120
generational asset cannot be
captured in something as simple

1527
01:28:29,120 --> 01:28:32,120
as a DCF model.
So I've.

1528
01:28:32,120 --> 01:28:34,120
Seen the DCF models for for
Looney?

1529
01:28:34,120 --> 01:28:36,400
That one that's online mate.
That looks pretty damn good.

1530
01:28:38,120 --> 01:28:40,640
Yeah, Yeah.
Well, you know, the way I like

1531
01:28:40,640 --> 01:28:44,080
to think of it is like, well,
we've got a Unicorn asset, so

1532
01:28:44,320 --> 01:28:48,240
what's it worth if it's brought
into production, you know, using

1533
01:28:48,240 --> 01:28:51,800
something like Linus as a
comparable that brings you to

1534
01:28:51,800 --> 01:28:53,760
about a 10X, you know, in terms
of EV.

1535
01:28:54,200 --> 01:28:57,160
But ultimately this, of course,
you know, is a function of time

1536
01:28:57,160 --> 01:29:00,120
and capital.
And look, I think that the

1537
01:29:00,120 --> 01:29:03,480
market is also ignoring the
significant downstream potential

1538
01:29:03,480 --> 01:29:08,240
of for X niobium minerals that
are present, present in the

1539
01:29:08,240 --> 01:29:12,520
deposit.
But yeah, we won't get too, too

1540
01:29:12,520 --> 01:29:14,720
far into that given the time
constraints.

1541
01:29:14,720 --> 01:29:18,120
So maybe that's a a topic for
another conversation.

1542
01:29:18,240 --> 01:29:20,520
Beautiful, I love it and
appreciate you sharing the the

1543
01:29:20,520 --> 01:29:23,920
extra detail around what we can
look forward to in 26 Ding Ding

1544
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:25,440
Ding on that part as well for
us.

1545
01:29:25,880 --> 01:29:29,360
What is your most non consensus
view for 26 Manny?

1546
01:29:30,640 --> 01:29:34,360
Yeah, sure.
So it reminds me of expose that

1547
01:29:34,360 --> 01:29:37,680
I put out that was a little bit
of a double pun.

1548
01:29:37,680 --> 01:29:40,640
And the only bond I trust is a
hydrocarbon bond.

1549
01:29:41,120 --> 01:29:47,000
And so I think that there's
going to be growing realization,

1550
01:29:47,000 --> 01:29:51,240
I believe in Australia that coal
will continue to be part of

1551
01:29:51,240 --> 01:29:55,560
Australia's energy grid.
I would say to at least, you

1552
01:29:55,560 --> 01:29:59,120
know, the year 2100, unless we
of course see a big shift in

1553
01:29:59,120 --> 01:30:02,720
nuclear and nation building
activities such as that.

1554
01:30:02,960 --> 01:30:05,480
I think that ultimately, you
know, we are very lucky in

1555
01:30:05,480 --> 01:30:06,960
Australia.
We sit on an ocean of

1556
01:30:06,960 --> 01:30:11,120
hydrocarbons essentially, yet we
have some of the most expensive

1557
01:30:11,800 --> 01:30:13,840
energy prices to the consumer in
the world.

1558
01:30:14,200 --> 01:30:16,840
You know, I think it's a real
travesty, you know, that given

1559
01:30:17,520 --> 01:30:20,760
affordable energy is the
foundation of, you know,

1560
01:30:20,880 --> 01:30:24,800
advanced and progressed
societies that we as a nation

1561
01:30:24,800 --> 01:30:29,080
are struggling with this.
And, you know, I it all comes

1562
01:30:29,080 --> 01:30:32,080
down to, you know, the green
inflation that we've seen over

1563
01:30:32,080 --> 01:30:35,480
the past, you know, 5 to 10
years and its effect on power

1564
01:30:35,480 --> 01:30:37,120
transmission and all the rest of
it.

1565
01:30:38,040 --> 01:30:42,240
And I think also, secondly, the
second interesting dynamic is

1566
01:30:42,240 --> 01:30:46,120
that we've seen sort of a wage
spiral really being driven by

1567
01:30:46,240 --> 01:30:49,160
demographic change.
And what I mean by that is we're

1568
01:30:49,160 --> 01:30:52,360
seeing skill shortages due to
people, those skills leaving the

1569
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:55,760
workforce.
And there are issues, you know,

1570
01:30:56,160 --> 01:31:00,160
with replacing their skills
rather than, you know, in the

1571
01:31:00,160 --> 01:31:04,400
1970s, we saw a similar dynamic,
however, that was really driven

1572
01:31:04,400 --> 01:31:07,800
by labour, organization, unions
and all that sort of thing.

1573
01:31:08,280 --> 01:31:11,720
So what this tells me is that we
really need inputs to fall to

1574
01:31:12,000 --> 01:31:18,840
maintain a yeah, the the quality
of life that we enjoy today,

1575
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:22,320
basically.
And that's why you should vote

1576
01:31:22,320 --> 01:31:28,120
that for PM.
Sorry, you got my vote mate.

1577
01:31:28,480 --> 01:31:31,960
What is the going to be the best
performing commodity for for the

1578
01:31:31,960 --> 01:31:34,000
year ahead?
Yeah, sure.

1579
01:31:34,000 --> 01:31:38,440
So I think, you know, and and I
guess continue on that same

1580
01:31:38,440 --> 01:31:41,240
angle, you know, we've
definitely seen, you know,

1581
01:31:41,560 --> 01:31:45,760
tremendous financialization, I
would call it worldwide over the

1582
01:31:45,760 --> 01:31:49,040
past five years or so.
And I think it's really been

1583
01:31:49,080 --> 01:31:52,360
only over this last 12 months,
we've seen that sort of real

1584
01:31:52,360 --> 01:31:59,680
race of capital into real assets
for, you know, most prominently

1585
01:31:59,680 --> 01:32:03,440
in precious metals, but also
we're starting to see base

1586
01:32:03,440 --> 01:32:04,920
metals starting to move a little
bit.

1587
01:32:05,600 --> 01:32:09,960
However, in comparison, energy
has has barely moved and, and,

1588
01:32:10,200 --> 01:32:14,520
and indeed has fallen somewhat
in, in national dollar terms.

1589
01:32:14,840 --> 01:32:19,840
So, you know, this brings me
back to that same 1970s analogy

1590
01:32:20,720 --> 01:32:24,520
where, you know, over sort of
that decade, energy was actually

1591
01:32:24,520 --> 01:32:26,120
one of the best performing
sectors.

1592
01:32:26,480 --> 01:32:31,640
So I think that there is a
significant scope for oil and

1593
01:32:31,640 --> 01:32:35,280
other energy products to rise
and especially given the sort

1594
01:32:35,280 --> 01:32:39,320
of, you know, many years of
underinvestment in in fossil

1595
01:32:39,320 --> 01:32:45,800
fuels driven by the these sort
of green ideologies, if you

1596
01:32:45,800 --> 01:32:48,560
would over the past 10 years.
So I think that there's there's

1597
01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:51,240
good potential there.
And is there a commodity you

1598
01:32:51,240 --> 01:32:53,600
think's not going to do so well
over 2026?

1599
01:32:54,640 --> 01:32:57,240
Yeah, sure.
So I think that, you know, we're

1600
01:32:57,240 --> 01:33:02,120
expecting 2026 will be a year of
geopolitical maneuvering if you

1601
01:33:02,120 --> 01:33:06,440
would.
I think in the 1970s we saw

1602
01:33:06,440 --> 01:33:10,040
geopolitical fragmentation.
We had the twin blocks of the

1603
01:33:10,040 --> 01:33:11,880
Western nations and the Soviet
blocs.

1604
01:33:12,200 --> 01:33:15,560
Today we're sort of seeing that
in between the Western nations

1605
01:33:15,560 --> 01:33:19,360
and Chinese associated blocks of
nations.

1606
01:33:19,800 --> 01:33:24,800
And I think that ultimately we
think that, you know, whatever

1607
01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:28,880
commodity can be used as a
political football or porn, if

1608
01:33:28,880 --> 01:33:32,000
you would will be used in that
sense.

1609
01:33:32,320 --> 01:33:37,360
And so I think rare earths may
be, you know, a a fairly weak

1610
01:33:37,360 --> 01:33:42,520
sort of sector to be in for
2026, given, you know, the the

1611
01:33:42,520 --> 01:33:47,040
Chinese so influential in that
space having, you know, certain

1612
01:33:47,040 --> 01:33:54,000
90% of the production in hand.
I think that despite the US

1613
01:33:54,120 --> 01:34:00,040
attempting to diversify rare
earth supply, I think that

1614
01:34:00,040 --> 01:34:02,680
there's a very good case for the
Chinese just to, you know,

1615
01:34:02,680 --> 01:34:07,760
absolutely drive down the rare
price in the short term to sort

1616
01:34:07,760 --> 01:34:13,120
of demonstrate or, or exert
their sort of, you know,

1617
01:34:13,120 --> 01:34:17,840
influence and power on, on this
particular and very critical

1618
01:34:17,840 --> 01:34:20,120
industry.
So I think, you know, in a

1619
01:34:20,120 --> 01:34:24,200
nutshell, 2026 will be a lot of
fun and, and we should, you

1620
01:34:24,200 --> 01:34:27,520
know, really prepare for a, for
a volatile ride ahead.

1621
01:34:27,840 --> 01:34:31,240
Mr. David Franklin of Argonaut,
the Natural Resources Fund and

1622
01:34:31,240 --> 01:34:35,120
the Gold Fund, you've had an
outstanding 2025 and you're our

1623
01:34:35,120 --> 01:34:38,400
last predictor for the upcoming
year, so we're very much looking

1624
01:34:38,400 --> 01:34:40,200
forward to hearing what you've
got to say.

1625
01:34:40,560 --> 01:34:42,640
What is your highest conviction
prediction for the coming year?

1626
01:34:43,480 --> 01:34:46,040
Yeah.
Look, so our highest conviction

1627
01:34:46,160 --> 01:34:49,840
prediction is really probably a
bit different to what my most

1628
01:34:49,840 --> 01:34:52,480
people have been saying.
And that's we just see a rise

1629
01:34:52,480 --> 01:34:57,680
and rise of passive ETFs, quant
funds, market neutral funds,

1630
01:34:58,120 --> 01:35:00,400
really changing the way the
markets operate, right.

1631
01:35:00,400 --> 01:35:03,800
So we just see that there's a
lot more short term focus,

1632
01:35:04,040 --> 01:35:07,800
thematic investing, momentum
investing, which is translating

1633
01:35:07,800 --> 01:35:12,600
to increase volatility.
And you know, and that's meaning

1634
01:35:12,600 --> 01:35:16,160
that fundamental analysis and
valuations are playing a lesser

1635
01:35:16,160 --> 01:35:17,920
role.
And that's that's certainly

1636
01:35:17,920 --> 01:35:19,680
increasing volatility as I was
saying.

1637
01:35:20,040 --> 01:35:22,000
You know I.
Kind of liken it to a swarm of

1638
01:35:22,000 --> 01:35:24,000
bees.
You know, what you've got is

1639
01:35:24,000 --> 01:35:28,120
just everyone jumping on the
same idea at the same time and

1640
01:35:28,120 --> 01:35:30,320
really forcing up values really
quickly.

1641
01:35:30,320 --> 01:35:33,280
And you know what happened in
lithium recently is a really

1642
01:35:33,280 --> 01:35:37,440
good example of that where where
the momentum just went very

1643
01:35:37,440 --> 01:35:39,880
strong.
People came in forced up prices

1644
01:35:40,240 --> 01:35:46,120
and and you know it it didn't
take long for the value to be

1645
01:35:46,120 --> 01:35:50,920
sucked out of those flowers.
You know, I think really the

1646
01:35:50,920 --> 01:35:54,440
opportunity for active investors
like like ourselves and like

1647
01:35:54,440 --> 01:35:57,080
most of the people you've been
talking to is going forward is

1648
01:35:57,080 --> 01:35:59,760
to, is to be looking for what is
the next flower, right.

1649
01:35:59,760 --> 01:36:03,200
So, so maybe being a bit of
ahead of the curve and focusing

1650
01:36:03,200 --> 01:36:07,160
on those commodities in those
stocks where that swarm is going

1651
01:36:07,160 --> 01:36:09,040
to go to next.
And I think that's really where

1652
01:36:09,040 --> 01:36:11,600
active managers can can make a
difference in this kind of

1653
01:36:11,600 --> 01:36:14,720
market.
The trend continues.

1654
01:36:15,240 --> 01:36:18,240
What about your most non
consensus prediction for the

1655
01:36:18,240 --> 01:36:22,000
year ahead, Dave?
Non consensus or consensus?

1656
01:36:22,000 --> 01:36:27,160
Non consensus, non consensus.
Look, we think that that iron

1657
01:36:27,160 --> 01:36:30,880
ore will remain resilient.
You know, iron ore is a

1658
01:36:30,880 --> 01:36:33,800
commodity where you always the
market always seems to be

1659
01:36:33,800 --> 01:36:35,960
predicting A downturn.
And I think it's the same kind

1660
01:36:35,960 --> 01:36:38,600
of thing, you know, we see and
do coming on on board.

1661
01:36:39,240 --> 01:36:42,120
People are expecting that, that,
you know, supply is going to

1662
01:36:42,120 --> 01:36:46,160
increase the impact on price,
but I think in all likelihood

1663
01:36:46,280 --> 01:36:51,120
demand for iron ore will remain
firm, high chance of, of, of

1664
01:36:51,120 --> 01:36:56,920
production not reading, not not
meeting forecasts and, and

1665
01:36:56,920 --> 01:37:00,560
always the, the, the risk of, of
weather impact on supplies.

1666
01:37:00,560 --> 01:37:04,440
So you know, we see the next
year iron ore remaining sort of

1667
01:37:04,440 --> 01:37:07,440
95 to 105 kind of U.S. dollars a
tonne.

1668
01:37:07,760 --> 01:37:10,880
And I think that's good
profitability for for the

1669
01:37:10,880 --> 01:37:13,120
majors.
BHP, Rio FMG.

1670
01:37:13,640 --> 01:37:15,240
Fantastic for Australia too,
Dave.

1671
01:37:15,280 --> 01:37:17,080
What about the best performing
commodity?

1672
01:37:18,480 --> 01:37:23,600
So we think uranium, we think
2026 is, is the year for

1673
01:37:23,600 --> 01:37:25,880
uranium.
If you look at what happened in

1674
01:37:25,880 --> 01:37:29,800
2025, it has had its ups and
downs, but in general was pretty

1675
01:37:29,800 --> 01:37:31,560
flat.
I think it ended pretty much

1676
01:37:31,560 --> 01:37:35,200
where it started.
Spot price of $76 a pound US and

1677
01:37:35,200 --> 01:37:37,360
and and the contract price of
80.

1678
01:37:37,800 --> 01:37:40,760
I think what you're seeing
globally is just a demand for a

1679
01:37:40,760 --> 01:37:45,120
carbon free commodity which can
provide base load power.

1680
01:37:45,120 --> 01:37:47,560
And I think uranium is the 1.
And I think really what you're

1681
01:37:47,560 --> 01:37:50,680
seeing and really what escalated
over the last year is you've got

1682
01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:54,320
all the major economies of the
world moving on board.

1683
01:37:54,320 --> 01:37:57,640
So you've got you know China
very supportive, the US, the EU,

1684
01:37:57,960 --> 01:38:02,080
the UK, etcetera.
So I think uranium is in for a

1685
01:38:02,080 --> 01:38:05,280
strong year.
And to to wrap it out, the West

1686
01:38:05,280 --> 01:38:08,560
performer.
Worst performer I think is

1687
01:38:08,560 --> 01:38:13,520
thermal coal, really hard to see
how it can perform particularly

1688
01:38:13,520 --> 01:38:17,200
well over the next 12 months.
The other factor is you know

1689
01:38:17,400 --> 01:38:20,240
what was going forward over the
last couple of years is just the

1690
01:38:20,240 --> 01:38:23,280
fact that you had a real
cessation of any new

1691
01:38:23,280 --> 01:38:25,480
developments in the thermal
coal, particularly in the

1692
01:38:25,480 --> 01:38:28,680
western world.
Whereas I think a lot of the

1693
01:38:29,480 --> 01:38:32,000
attitude towards coal and
particularly thermal coal has

1694
01:38:32,080 --> 01:38:35,560
has eased and so you can see
supply coming on which which

1695
01:38:35,760 --> 01:38:38,200
won't help prices in the medium
to long term.

1696
01:38:38,560 --> 01:38:41,560
What a diversity of opinions.
Real doozy.

1697
01:38:41,640 --> 01:38:43,720
A lot of head to head.
Yeah, it's fantastic to see

1698
01:38:43,720 --> 01:38:44,880
we're going.
To have to reveal our

1699
01:38:44,880 --> 01:38:46,680
predictions, I think in our
final episode of the.

1700
01:38:47,040 --> 01:38:48,680
Maybe we will stay tuned for
that.

1701
01:38:48,880 --> 01:38:50,880
We'll have to see how we fared
on our predictions last year as

1702
01:38:50,880 --> 01:38:52,000
well.
If you're still listening,

1703
01:38:52,000 --> 01:38:53,840
thanks for sticking around for a
doozy of an episode.

1704
01:38:53,840 --> 01:38:55,200
I hope there was a bunch of
value in there.

1705
01:38:55,600 --> 01:38:58,880
All thanks to Sandvik Ground
support, Focus, the Platform by

1706
01:38:58,880 --> 01:39:02,200
Market Tech, Introlinks, Switch
Technologies, and Exceed Capital

1707
01:39:02,200 --> 01:39:04,120
in the show.
Sign up to the Director special

1708
01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:08,400
Who'daroo Money minus Who'daroo.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

1709
01:39:08,680 --> 01:39:11,120
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

1710
01:39:11,120 --> 01:39:13,680
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

1711
01:39:14,000 --> 01:39:15,200
and you need to read out a
skyline.