2025: Will We See Another Year Like It? (Peter Ker)

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Money, manners, you know all
about this one.

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Our final episode of the year,
the wonderful peak Kerr, just in

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a moment.
We can't wait to give you a very

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last bit of content for the
calendar year 2026.

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But first, JD.
Final episode of the year mate.

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It's been a ripping 2025.
I hope everyone's portfolio out

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there reflects it.
Commodities have been on a tear

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and you might be thinking it's
time to take a few chips off the

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table.
Diversify a bit.

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Yeah, yeah.
No, I'm very pro cyclical.

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The portfolio goes up.
I want more.

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Well, we've been having a few
wins across the portfolio and

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hopefully everyone else there
has as well.

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And if you are thinking of
taking a few trips off the

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table, we're in Australia.
You think you're property,

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right?
Mate, what could be?

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What could be more Australian
than the property market?

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I don't know.
Nothing's more Australian,

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right?
So why not go with a group from

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Brizzy, a group called Exceed
Capital Mate.

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They have this flagship fund
called The Collective.

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It's an open-ended fund.
It's diversified, diversified

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across locations, diversified
across different asset classes,

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diversified across different
businesses as well, mate.

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Sounds pretty good, right?
We're talking about commercial

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property here.
If you just look historically at

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that one fund, seven 8% cash
return paid monthly, monthly.

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And then then there's obviously
capital gain on top of that.

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So very interesting way to to to
add something a little bit extra

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to your portfolio that is maybe
a bit less volatile than mining

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stocks, but we love mining
stocks.

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Thank you.
Exceed capital go check them out

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go to Pete Kerr final episode of
the year as always joined by the

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wonderful peak ker of the AFR or
the financial review.

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Do we got to call it the fin
from now on, don't we?

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I feel like we're just stuck in
this habit of calling it the AFR

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but.
Anything.

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Anything you want, you can call
it.

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Wow.
We'll call it Pete's, Pete's,

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Pete's home ground.
We're just, we're delighted to

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have you here every year you
join us, Pete, we reflect on the

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year that was and the year
ahead.

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We're going to do it again.
And 2025 has been a blockbuster

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year in many respects, A
defining year.

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JD's called some of the things
that have happened this year is

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the most important stories of
the decade in terms of our

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industry.
I'm I'm really keen to peel

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through some of those like big
themes, big stories, big company

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and corporate moves and
importantly look ahead at what

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could be in 2026.
Again, we're going to we're

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going to get you predictions.
We're going to predict some

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stuff ourselves and keep
ourselves accountable for what

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we called last year.
Pete, thanks for coming on Money

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and Mine.
Great to be here.

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I feel like I'm like your
father.

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Christmas.
I only appear once a year, like

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shortly, you know, late
December.

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So three times in a row.
It's a hat trick.

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I'm very pleased to be here.
And everyone's thrilled for it,

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Pete.
We're yeah, we're delighted to

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to jump into these stories.
And we were tic tacking over the

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past week about what are the big
stories?

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What should we unpack?
And the first one on that list

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was geopolitics and how
geopolitics has really made it

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sort of presence felt across the
minerals, the mining space.

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And it, it, the impact's been
huge.

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Thinking of things like price
floors of government grants of

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export import banks, getting
involved in financing projects,

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be it rare earth, critical
minerals, all these sorts of

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things.
So I want to start the, the

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conversation here and given that
you've got a few years of

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experience on, on us here, I'd
love to to hear from your

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perspective how monumental you
kind of think these moves that

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we've seen are specifically what
the US has done in underwriting

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price floors in, in things like
rare earths.

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Yes.
I mean, I've just sort of coming

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to the end of my 14th year
covering this sector.

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And I've always said, like going
back right to the start, the

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thing that I found most
fascinating about it of many

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things was the geopolitics that
was always at play.

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So when I started, it was around
the time of Kevin Rudd's mining

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tax proposal.
And you know, that obviously

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blew up and became a big thing.
And I remember Aceo, one of the

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CEOs of the big multinationals,
saying to me one time about how

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the nation states, they've got
us over a barrel in the

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resources industry.
And I was, I was sort of puzzled

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by this, right?
Because the narrative was, oh,

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the big miners push around the
politicians, they own the

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politicians, they tell them what
to do.

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But the point he made was that
if you're a shoe company, so

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let's say you're Nike or Puma or
someone, and you've got a shoe

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factory in let's call it any
like Thailand, for example,

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Thailand raises the taxes.
You can just go across the

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border to Cambodia and build the
exact same factory.

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Goodbye Thailand, you know,
continue on your merry way in

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the resources industry.
The they are where they are in

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the ground.
So the nation state has such

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more power over this industry.
So that sort of for me was

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always the bit that I liked the
most.

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You know, over the decade, we
saw things like Indonesia, you

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know, do export bans and all
these things that affected

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commodity markets.
And that was kind of cool to

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watch.
But these past couple of years,

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it's just been geopolitics on
steroids.

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This time last year, I was with
you guys on this show, and we

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were talking about this, about
how incredible it was that our

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taxpayer dollars were being lent
to Alluca to make the Eniaba

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refinery.
Yeah, this was a controversial

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thing and everyone's got
different views about it.

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Well, that looks like child's
play now.

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Like, come this year, we've got
U.S. government setting price

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floors, as you mentioned, we've
got the Australian government

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buying shares in Lyntown.
Like that was not on my list of

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predictions for 2025.
You know, government support for

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the industry used to be drilling
grants and then it was a bit of

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a step when they started giving
concessional loans.

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Now they're just buying shares
in pre revenue companies

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sometimes.
Obviously Lyontown now has some

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revenue, but there's other
explorers who are pre revenue

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who the taxpayer now owns shares
in.

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So this is incredible territory
to be honest.

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And for me it just opens up so
many more questions like those

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Lyontown shares as we sit here
today, in December 2025, the

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Australian taxpayers done well
out of that, right?

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Like they've probably tripled
from that equity raise.

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And who's the dude in Canberra
sitting there managing the fund,

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like being the little, you know,
Michael Barry of Canberra?

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Like are they are they selling
the line town shares today to

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make a tidy profit?
I don't know.

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So that's what keeps me
fascinated, I reckon by this

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industry, just the growing
interplay of of governments,

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this emerging, you know,
bifurcation of the world between

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a Chinese and A and AUS state.
It's it's, it's moved markets

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all year and I think it probably
will again next year.

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There's one more layer as well,
Pete, which I think really

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started gathering steam around
the AFR mining Summit in I think

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May of this year.
And that is the stockpile, the

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critical mineral stockpile that
the Australian government was

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talking about.
Yeah, going to put you on the

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spot here a bit, but how
effective do you do you think

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that will be?
And what form do you think

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that's going to end up taking
when when we get a bit more

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detail over the next half year
on it?

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So there was a bit more action
on that front just last week.

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So depending on when your
audience is enjoying this

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podcast or hating this podcast,
hopefully you're enjoying it.

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You know, I'm talking about sort
of the middle week of December,

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I gather AMEC, the lobby group
based in Perth, heavily involved

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in formulating the a proposal
and the hope is that the this

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will be an industry LED proposal
that the government can sort of

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rubber stamp.
You know, the government came to

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them and said in broad terms,
this is what we want to do, how

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should we do it?
The industry is now going back

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to them and saying we think you
should do it this way.

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So if that model gets up, in
really simple terms, it sounds

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like it would be nation to
nation agreements.

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The governments of Australia and
let's say for instance, South

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Korea agree that Australia will
provide certain volume to South

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Korea over certain years.
And then the Australian

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government turns to miners in
this country and says, well, can

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you guys please deliver that
helps them out, you know,

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concessional loans, all those
sorts of things.

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And I guess ultimately, if
Australian mining companies

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failed to deliver on the
promised volumes, then the

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taxpayer is on the hook.
That's when the taxpayer might

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have to step into the spot
market, buy some volumes and get

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them to South Korea.
So it's sort of if that model

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were to get up, you know, it's
kind of smart in the sense that

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the government can play a big
role here, but might not ever

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actually spend a dollar if if
you know what I mean, If the if

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the Australian miners deliver to
the promise that Canberra makes

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to South Korea, well, then it's
just transactions between the

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minor and the customer.
So that seems to be the the

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default leading model.
And it sounds as though rare

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earths NDPR is the most likely
place it will start, but perhaps

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also gallium, maybe antimony.
And I think that's because, say

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gallium and germanium.
The hope is that they'll be able

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to get those off the existing
smelters and refineries, the

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near star ones and so forth or
the Alcoa ones in WA, add a

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little circuit, it's not a lot
of CapEx and you just extract,

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you know, gallium out of what
was going to waste.

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So I'd expect those two or three
will be the first commodities

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there.
The lithium miners far less

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convinced about this as a
concept, far less unified.

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The rare earths guys seem
relatively unified and I guess

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to some extent that makes sense
really because the lithium

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miners generally are incumbents.
They are out in the market

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selling this stuff already.
They have contracts.

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So if you're going to try and
set price floors, you're kind of

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interfering with the contracts
they've already got set, whereas

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most of the rarest people in the
conversation not yet in

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production.
So it's sort of easier to start

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there.
So that's where I would expect

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it starts.
The, the, the next layer that,

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that I think about heaps when it
comes to, to geopolitics.

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And, and it's interesting what
you say there, Pete, about the

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Aussie government perhaps not
having to, to, to write a check

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because let's see which projects
get funded.

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Let's see where, where the money
to, to finance these projects

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come from.
That's a very open-ended

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question.
But the countries with which we

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do do these deals is another
really interesting layer from

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from my perspective, because you
mentioned South Korea obviously

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with the US, but we're in the
middle of this China, US kind of

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trade war.
And iron ore is the elephant in

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the room when it comes to this.
And we have seen a lot of back

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and forth with BHB and the, the
more unified iron ore buying

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group in, in China now that's
trying to pull together all the

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interests for the, for the steel
mills and have a bit more, bit

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more sway.
How have you seen this story UN

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unvolve or evolve over the year
rather?

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And where, where do you kind of
think we're going on that trend?

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Are we going to see more
renminbi deals?

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Is is that something on the
cards for next year?

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00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,440
Wouldn't surprise me if we do, I
think.

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I guess what we can be certain
about is that there's currently

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no deal between BHP and the
Chinese buying desk.

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Just last week in mid-december,
we were continuing to see

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another little flurry out of CMG
of of jawboning, I guess where

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they tried to crack down on
essentially the port side

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trading in China.
This is something that the three

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big W Australian miners have
increased a lot the past few

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years.
The idea that you get the iron

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ore to a a yard at the port in
China and you keep it there

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00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,760
longer than you traditionally
did and you can maybe blend it

226
00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,320
with some stuff from Simandu or
from Valet or whatever.

227
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:55,400
You'd have to say that as things
stand, the Australian miners, I

228
00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,720
mean it proximity bias, maybe
we're falling victim to that,

229
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:00,920
but they seem to be winning,
right?

230
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,240
Like the iron ore price has been
stronger than everyone expected.

231
00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,920
Late last week, it was still 105
US.

232
00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,440
Who knows whether, you know,
that becomes famous last words

233
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:18,040
next year.
But yeah, like it continues to

234
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,680
it continues to hold strong.
Rio Tinto shares hit an all time

235
00:12:22,680 --> 00:12:25,560
record on Friday.
They've never been higher ever,

236
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,880
you know, at an on oil price of
105.

237
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,160
Keeping in mind the on oil price
was, what, 230 back in 2021.

238
00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:37,120
So, yeah, it wouldn't surprise
me if China wins some

239
00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,400
concessions.
But if you look at it the other

240
00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,680
way, are they starting?
Are they a bit desperate?

241
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,560
Like if they're resorting to a
lot of these sort of regular

242
00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:48,480
sort of outbursts about, you
know, unnamed sources say we'll

243
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,760
do this and we'll do that, I
don't know, Do you do that if

244
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:56,880
you're getting traction?
I did hear from someone

245
00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,720
extremely well placed on this
debate that one of the world's

246
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,280
BIG4 miners, and I actually
don't know which one it is

247
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,320
because the person refused to
tell me which one it was.

248
00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:14,120
But one of them has threatened
to go entirely to spot, entirely

249
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,320
to the spot market in terms of
volumes as well.

250
00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:22,120
So whilst BHP is the focus of
this, I think some of the others

251
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:23,680
are dealing with it intensely as
well.

252
00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:28,360
And some of them are ready to
take the well the to really take

253
00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,040
the fight up and go.
We're going to back ourselves to

254
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,840
be able to withstand whatever
you throw at us.

255
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,600
I I think it's such a such a big
and evolving story.

256
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,520
I don't, I don't think I'd, I'd
characterize the Australian

257
00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,760
miners as as winning this fight.
I think like, I know price

258
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:49,840
elevated is, is a function of,
of many things, but, but I think

259
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:54,480
like CMRG on, on many fronts is
exerting more and more power.

260
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,320
And they're, they're absolutely
like having an influence for for

261
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,320
the first time in, in, in many
years.

262
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,720
And you know, we've seen the
concessions that BHP sort of had

263
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,160
to make around its Jimbo bar
products and the, and the likes

264
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,880
as a result of some of this
market power.

265
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:15,560
One of the like, one of the
underlying all of this is like

266
00:14:15,560 --> 00:14:17,800
what, what, what are we
denominating trade in?

267
00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,680
Like what are we, what's that de
facto currency?

268
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,880
What's the reserve currency of
trade and is and, and what are

269
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,000
the terms of, of that trade
going to be?

270
00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:32,120
And it, it was such political
hot potato to even kind of talk

271
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,600
about the, you know, the, the
denomination of, of, of iron ore

272
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,440
trade in renminbi, despite the
fact that 30% of spot spot

273
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,520
volumes trading in renminbi was
kind of standard practice until,

274
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,560
until, and just not really
discussed or anything like that.

275
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,560
And that's a, that's clearly a,
a point of contention from CMRG.

276
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,360
They want, they want more trade
in, in, in, in renminbi and

277
00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,280
they, they want to have more
market power to negotiate with

278
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,160
the respective iron ore miners.
You look, you look at a another

279
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,080
like bulks oligopoly that
exists.

280
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,800
You've got the, the potash
giants in Canada, the likes of,

281
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,040
of nutrient and, and Mosaic and,
and there you've got this

282
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:17,440
effective oligopoly marketing
machine, the two, you know,

283
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,040
those two parties actually
collectively determine what,

284
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,920
what you know, what the, what
the output is going to be and

285
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,200
effectively fend off any, any,
any new entrant, just, you know,

286
00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:29,640
but BHP is trying to enter that
arena.

287
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,200
Do you think there's
justification for a for a, for a

288
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:37,360
potash type OPEC to emerge in
the iron ore sectopy?

289
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:44,600
Wouldn't it be amazing?
Look, maybe, maybe I wonder.

290
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,240
I mean, it gets hard with
regulators potentially if BHP

291
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:54,080
and Rio do it, but I mean, Amin
resin, Hancock already close in

292
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,280
that regard.
I'll I'll phrase that as a

293
00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:57,280
question.
I don't know.

294
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,400
Yeah, it's not a that's not a
statement, I guess.

295
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,440
But I guess there's scope for
that, isn't there?

296
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,040
And look, some people on the
Chinese side might say that the

297
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,920
Western miners already tried to
do that with the creation of

298
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,480
some of these price indexes.
You know, there's global ore,

299
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:17,200
which was set up about 1213
years ago and Global coal was

300
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,840
set up in London as well.
You've heard a veteran of that

301
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:26,440
process, Tony Odeviano, Speaking
of Lyontown talked about the

302
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:30,200
lithium industry needs to go and
follow that that process.

303
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,840
So maybe, maybe, but I'm just
not sure if it will come to

304
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,840
that.
Like it's not like iron ore

305
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,320
prices are at 200.
You know, we, we saw last week

306
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,960
the CMRG came out and said that
there was some, I think the

307
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,040
exact words were something like
there's unreasonable heat in the

308
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,360
iron ore price.
I don't know.

309
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,040
Is is 105 unreasonable heat
given where it's been?

310
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,440
Here's my question to you right.
How much of that is CMRG buying

311
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,200
up spot volumes to exert even
more power?

312
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,720
CMRG is one of the reasons that
the spot price is where it is

313
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,880
because they're, they're,
they're buying as you know, a

314
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:09,440
lot, a lot of spot volumes
themselves.

315
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,119
And that gives them, you know,
more and more collective

316
00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:16,960
bargaining power.
Yeah, I, I don't know is the

317
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,240
answer.
Yeah, I don't know.

318
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,839
Yeah.
It it it's gonna continue to

319
00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:23,920
roll on next year.
The iron ore market's evolving

320
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:25,440
fast.
We've got Simandu coming in.

321
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,960
And notionally that's been
talked about as being a risk to

322
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,600
the Aussie iron ore miners.
If you, if you watched Rio

323
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,720
Tinto's Investor Day, I think it
was December 4, or if you

324
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,840
haven't, I'd urge you to go have
a look at your audience.

325
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,000
Have a look at what Vivek
Toolpool talked about.

326
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,320
He's Rio's sort of commodities
and markets guy.

327
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,120
And he was the guy who famously
sort of said China will reach a

328
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:49,520
billion tonnes of iron ore
demand.

329
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,000
And he got ridiculed for several
years.

330
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,480
And then when it came through,
Vivek kept receipts and he made

331
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,960
sure everyone had come through.
His presentation the other night

332
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,960
was a bit more, bit more punchy
than normal.

333
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,160
Actually, he was, he was really
mounting that case about how the

334
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:10,520
market has drastically
underestimated the impact of

335
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,360
depletion in the iron ore
market.

336
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,600
Now they would say that they're
talking their book, but you

337
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,720
know, it's a theme that I saw
Black Rock World Mining Trust

338
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,560
pick up on.
And they were sort of publicly

339
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,520
talking a couple of weeks ago
that they sort of you'd see that

340
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,240
as well.
It wasn't just Rio, it was valet

341
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,200
had a capital market stay the
same week and and spoke to the

342
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,400
exact same phenomenon.
And and both of them I think

343
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:39,240
have a very healthy like floor
price on on what what iron ore

344
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,240
you know, could be.
And and we the the market likes

345
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,160
to talk about the impact that
SIM and do will have.

346
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,640
But the reality of of SIM and do
coming online is it actually

347
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,120
might just replace depletion
that is that is coming from

348
00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:55,600
existing mines as opposed to
really meaningfully impact, you

349
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,440
know, the, the total supply
equation.

350
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,480
And that's if Simon do goes to
plan, right?

351
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,440
I mean, at the end of this
month, it might be like December

352
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,560
28 or something.
Guinea's gonna have its first

353
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,440
elections in about 5 or 6 years
now.

354
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,320
Let's hope, fingers crossed they
go smoothly and they are

355
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,120
peaceful and democratic.
But I mean, who knows what's

356
00:19:14,120 --> 00:19:19,680
gonna happen, right?
So yeah, I don't know.

357
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,800
I sort of it makes sense that
CMRG should have enormous power

358
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,000
and basically should be able to
just design this market however

359
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,880
they want it.
But they've been around a couple

360
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,360
of years now, right?
And the price still seems to

361
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,840
stay in that band that the big
miners talk about between $80

362
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,520
USA tonne and $100 a tonne as
being that that sort of big Bank

363
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:45,240
of supply that, you know, if the
price dips down, a fair bit of

364
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,520
global supply becomes
uneconomic.

365
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,040
Yeah, that, that high price
shoulder is a really interesting

366
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,800
layer to the market.
And I think if we we zoom out on

367
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,800
the the pricing lens for a
moment there as well and and not

368
00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,840
focus on Australia versus China
for a moment.

369
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,760
I think the the US is the real
loser having less priced in in

370
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:09,480
the US dollar because what what
is the actual impact to the iron

371
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,760
ore price if it's priced in in
another currency?

372
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,440
I think.
That, that impact is more on the

373
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,720
margins, but in general, China
is trying to just get more trade

374
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,640
through its currency and that
would be a win for it.

375
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,000
But that's perhaps a bit of a, a
bit of a side note.

376
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,200
I, I did have a question on SIM
and Do for you, Pete and I, and

377
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,120
I note you, you wrote a
fantastic article maybe a month

378
00:20:30,120 --> 00:20:33,280
or so ago, a real deep dive
into, into SIM and Do and

379
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:37,720
everything going on there.
We have seen some talk lately

380
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,200
with Rio Tinto and their
interest and the DLC and

381
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,480
everything with with new
management looking at this in

382
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,080
perhaps a slightly different
light and the 15% Chenalco

383
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,240
interest coming into question
again, do you think SIM and Do

384
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,640
is seriously on the cards to be
perhaps a stake in that, in that

385
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,800
negotiation in an eventual
collapse of the DLC?

386
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,520
It's a fascinating question.
And for any of your audience

387
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,880
aren't aware, there was a story
that Reuters published about a

388
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,200
month ago, which which basically
implied this, that Rio would

389
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,280
effectively sell an asset to
Chanelco, which is its biggest

390
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,960
shareholder as a way and in
exchange for some of Chanelco's

391
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:22,760
shares in Rio as a way of
reducing Chanelco's stake on its

392
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,840
on its share register, which,
you know, Chanelco's state is

393
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,600
right at the limit imposed by
Australia's Ferb prevents Rio

394
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:35,720
from doing share buybacks.
Maybe, maybe I don't have any

395
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,640
sort of personal confirmation
that that is underway.

396
00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:45,320
I don't know.
I can sort of see Simandu and

397
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,720
Chinelka, obviously a partner in
Simandu.

398
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,520
So they're already there.
Sort of makes it easy from from

399
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:55,480
that point, if you're real.
I think there is some sort of

400
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,920
strategic merit in having a bit
of Simandu as well as your WA

401
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,600
business just gives you that
great insight to the market.

402
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,680
Maybe there's blending
opportunities in future.

403
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,760
So I think, I think there is
merit for Rio keeping Simandu if

404
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,720
that makes sense.
But yeah, like and I would have

405
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,720
thought are there other assets
that they could do the same sort

406
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,960
of deal with with Chenelco, You
know Chenelco do many things,

407
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,760
but they are originally an
aluminium company.

408
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,600
Rio's got plenty of aluminium
assets, plenty of assets.

409
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,800
Riha would love to sell sell a
million assets.

410
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,400
Unfortunately, Janelko's not
going to want that.

411
00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:39,840
Let's give them Tobago.
Although, I mean, there's

412
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,840
fascinating things happening in
the sorry to, you know, deviate

413
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,120
from your question.
No, no, no.

414
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,800
Jonas But fascinating things
happening in Illumina as well.

415
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,520
And your audience is probably
already crossed this, but

416
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,120
sounds, you know, there is a
prospect that Indonesia's going

417
00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,120
to do to Illumina what they did
to Nickel two or three years ago

418
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,920
and crush, you know, the rest of
the world.

419
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,640
But yet China's, you know, sort
of effectively got a

420
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,280
self-imposed cap on its
aluminium smelting.

421
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,680
So people who own smelters
outside China are sort of

422
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,640
starting to get slightly more
confident about being a

423
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,280
aluminium smelter.
The people who own the alumina

424
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,120
refineries, which was quite a
sweet spot for the past, you

425
00:23:23,120 --> 00:23:26,160
know, decade, 15 years.
The former a sex company,

426
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,160
Alumina Limited did really
nicely for a long time.

427
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,160
So yeah, so that's a fascinating
market.

428
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,520
Coming back to your question,
yeah, I don't know.

429
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,160
Would be an awesome deal if they
could do it.

430
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,800
And Speaking of Simondu, I'm
sort of also interested to watch

431
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:52,000
where the Simondu is the, I
guess, the first of many African

432
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,800
iron ore projects.
So our gut feeling is probably

433
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,280
to say no.
All these other smaller ones

434
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,360
such as Ivanhoe Atlantic who are
trying to take a Ghanaian iron

435
00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:07,600
ore deposit down through Liberia
to the coast, Jin Min who are in

436
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:14,000
Gabon, Zanaga who are in, I
think, Republic of Congo.

437
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,080
You know, common sense says
these guys will probably

438
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,640
struggle, right, to get their
projects up because, you know,

439
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,760
iron ore's past its peak and all
the things we've said for many

440
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,800
years.
But the thing that gets me is

441
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,640
the people behind all these
projects are people with serious

442
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,320
industry cred, you know?
So Jen Min is Greg Lilyman, who

443
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,280
ran Rio's Pilbara business for
years and then was second in

444
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,720
charge at Fortescue.
Zenaga's got like a, you know,

445
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,840
Bob Geldof style Band-Aid
collection of mining industry

446
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,280
luminaries from Mark Cudafani
through to, I think Mick Davis

447
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:54,040
from memory and Ivanhoe and
Robert Friedland.

448
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,680
Yeah, needs no introduction, so.
And he got gone as well, yeah.

449
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,040
Exactly.
So that's going to be really

450
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,360
interesting to watch if some of
those projects can start to get

451
00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:05,160
up in it.
You would have seen with Jin

452
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,160
Min, who are SX listed, I think
they did a deal with a Chinese

453
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:13,360
partner the other day, you know,
which got them a bit closer to

454
00:25:13,360 --> 00:25:14,520
reality.
So that's going to be fun to

455
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,800
watch.
I think that's the secret to, to

456
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,240
getting these projects into into
production is, is partnering

457
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,840
with the Chinese.
There's, there's, yeah, the rate

458
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,040
at which they can, they can
build critical infrastructure

459
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:34,280
to, to ship and and yeah, to to
effectively rail and ship the

460
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,200
product is, is just incredible.
So you kind of you kind of need

461
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,320
that.
Hopefully Jemin wasn't planning

462
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,400
to sell their iron ore in
Gabbinese.

463
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,600
What is the currency in Gabon?
I don't.

464
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,760
Know.
Oh, you got me, Pete.

465
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,240
Got me.
You got me stumped with that

466
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:50,960
one.
Yeah, yeah.

467
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,720
There's a lot of optimization
that needs to take place to make

468
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,080
these projects that we're
talking about efficient and

469
00:25:56,120 --> 00:25:58,040
effective.
And there's a company in our

470
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,560
very own Perth here that I think
is the perfect company to help

471
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,480
them out with that job Switch
technologies.

472
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,520
Switch technologies, make
concept through to deployment.

473
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,640
Look no further.
That's right.

474
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,520
These guys are specialist
engineers for those out there

475
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,160
who haven't quite heard of them
yet, be it mechanical

476
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,800
engineering, be it software and
every other form of engineering

477
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,720
that you can think of.
And they've got a sole focus.

478
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,640
That focus is make your
operations more efficient and

479
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,480
save you money.
What more could you want?

480
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,680
I want to bring ideas into
reality with an engineering

481
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,840
solution that is as cheap
operating costs.

482
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,120
You know what I'm very
interested in that and and I

483
00:26:35,120 --> 00:26:37,880
think I think the the best
engineering partner you can

484
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,240
think of to help with that
problem mate, Switch

485
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,520
Technologies.
Call Mike at Switch Technologies

486
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,120
today.
Details in the show notes.

487
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,600
Well, while we talk about the
majors, the likes of Rio, we've

488
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,280
got to move on to one of the
other big themes of the year and

489
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:57,120
that is big town M&A.
So we got flavors of it in 2024.

490
00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:01,720
We had BHB and Anglo doing a bit
of flirting and then we had a

491
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,000
deal that looks, you know, much
closer than that one to

492
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,760
completing with Anglo Tech.
This year more drama with BHB

493
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,320
expressing their love for Anglo
once more.

494
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:15,160
So this is a big, big theme that
we've seen this year and I think

495
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,360
there's a few more more chapters
to evolve on this one.

496
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,840
Throw in the background mate,
you had you had Glenn Glencore

497
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,920
tech rumours in in major, major
publications.

498
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:26,840
Glenn Glencore.
Glencore Rio was earlier this

499
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,880
year as well.
Yeah, for a moment there.

500
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,400
Glencore Rio Yeah, lots of, lots
of, lots of rumblings around the

501
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,400
majors to, to to effectively
merge.

502
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,200
Yeah.
And I listened to your episode a

503
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,440
few weeks ago and I don't
disagree with anything you guys

504
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,320
upon where you effectively said
that, you know, BHP will

505
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,320
probably end up coming back for
these assets some way, shape or

506
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,000
form.
So obviously now the Anglo Tech

507
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,000
merger has gone through, but it
still feels like an unfinished

508
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,160
situation.
Doesn't.

509
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,000
It the votes, the votes
occurred, but, but there's still

510
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,520
a lengthy timeline to completion
here because of all of the

511
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,880
regulatory approvals that are
required and and that doesn't

512
00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:08,600
completely shut the opportunity
for an interloper.

513
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,680
Yeah.
And if it's done right, let's

514
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,720
say, even if it does get done,
even then it still feels

515
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,920
finished.
So I mean, it's a, there are

516
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,640
more things in this than just
those sort of flagship assets.

517
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,760
You know, your audience probably
knows, but really this deal is

518
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,360
ultimately focused or you know,
the biggest synergies available

519
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:33,920
are QB 2 mines in Chile being
put together to create value

520
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:39,200
colour posse and QB.
So let's say Anglotech does get

521
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,280
finalised.
Well, Glenn Glencore's still

522
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,080
sitting there as a 44%
shareholder in Colohassee.

523
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,360
So there they are going to enjoy
the synergies that would occur

524
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,120
if these two minds get put
together.

525
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,920
They presumably will have some
sort of voice in how they get

526
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:58,080
put together and when and the
terms under which that happens.

527
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,480
So that that probably makes
Glencore's copper business more

528
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,400
attractive maybe than it was two
years ago, arguably.

529
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,200
Shout out if you disagree.
No, I certainly agree.

530
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,200
Certainly agree.
And Glencore know how to extract

531
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:14,800
their pound of flesh in
negotiations.

532
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,640
They were the exact words in my
mind, Yeah.

533
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,040
And they and they've been pretty
vocal.

534
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,600
They're not going to be a
minority partner there.

535
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,160
They want, they want to be big
in that, you know, however that

536
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,680
tie up emerges.
Yeah.

537
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,800
And they look like a company
that just really is tired of

538
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,280
waiting for something to happen.
That was the vibe that I got

539
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,840
from watching Glencore's
Investor Day, which I think was

540
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:40,160
December 3.
And little wonder, right?

541
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,240
Like, I jumped on the Bloomberg
Terminal a couple of weeks back

542
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:48,320
and I looked at the Glencore Rio
Tinto valuation comparison going

543
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:52,320
back to mid 2014, which is when
those two companies, well,

544
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,000
Glencore invited Rio to a merger
and Rio said no, thank you.

545
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,520
I don't, I've forgotten the
exact numbers, but Glencore's

546
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,000
market cap is sort of roughly
the same today as it was then.

547
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,840
Rio Tinto's gained something
like, I think it was $86 billion

548
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,440
in value or something like that.
So.

549
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,200
So it would have been a good
deal for Glencore had it got

550
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,520
done in 2014, Probably would
have been a good deal for

551
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,240
Glencore if it got done this
year again as well.

552
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:28,280
So, yeah, I mean, could you see
a BHP or a Rio breaking Glencore

553
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,800
in half and trying to take the
base metals half possibly.

554
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,400
You know, we saw earlier this
year Glencore completed this

555
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:39,000
internal restructuring process
where all their carbon intensive

556
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,520
assets are off in in one
Australian registered company,

557
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,280
everything from ferrochrome to
coal and all those other things.

558
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,760
So it's certainly easier now to
break off the tasty bits of

559
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,920
Glencore and leave the Brussels
sprouts, you know, on the side.

560
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,640
So yeah, it seems possible.
But again, geopolitics comes

561
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,600
into this, doesn't it?
Because as you guys discussed on

562
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,000
your show, to get the Anglo Tech
merger done, Anglo had to agree

563
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,600
to the headquarters being in
Canada.

564
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,960
Now, BHP exists in Australia
under its own FIB ruling.

565
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,120
The headquarters must be
somewhere in Australia.

566
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,240
The CEO must reside in
Australia.

567
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,680
So there's probably ways around
it, but simplistically, BHP

568
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,680
can't do a deal where they
promised to put the headquarters

569
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:29,280
in Vancouver.
Rio Tinto also exist under a

570
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,440
Ferb ruling.
So, you know, these things could

571
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,440
be worked around.
You know, that could be the

572
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,320
moment where BHP breaks off it's
copper division and, you know,

573
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,760
merges that with Anglo tech and
keeps the steelmaking

574
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:45,880
ingredients off to the side.
But yeah, there's just these

575
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:50,320
little complications that sort
of make a few of these things

576
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,880
difficult.
I know like the big miners have

577
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,800
all, you know, they've all
covered it, Antofagasta as well.

578
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,320
But there's big strategic
shareholders who are hard to

579
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:03,240
move and make that difficult.
They even they even these days

580
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,640
talk about Cadelco, you know,
the Chilean government

581
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:13,640
controlled copper miner.
You know, it it sounds as though

582
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,760
they've made the efforts to go
and have the conversations with

583
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,520
politicians there to say, have
you ever thought about making

584
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:24,680
this thing more more marketable?
You know, you know, clearly very

585
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,680
early stage, not formal offers.
But yeah, like when you look at

586
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,440
the available copper assets,
sorry, copper companies that

587
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,920
these guys could take over,
there's sort of something

588
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,760
difficult about most of them.
Loon Dean stuffs to look like

589
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,480
the your your mates at Loon
Dean.

590
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,600
What a great episode.
If if money mine listeners, if

591
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,280
you haven't gone and listened to
the interview with Loon Dean

592
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,960
boys, you should.
It was terrific get for you

593
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,320
guys.
You know, that would make so

594
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:55,080
much sense for BHP, but it's not
cheap now, right?

595
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,000
So.
All of the great coal companies

596
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,640
have these yeah, big, big
shareholders to bypass.

597
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,360
They're not simple, not simple
deals in general.

598
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:10,720
There's yeah, the, the, I, I do
think a bit about like, you

599
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,280
know, BHP coming back for Anglo
and it was a great call by you

600
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,880
last year to say that they would
come back.

601
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,960
And, you know, we think that
there's every merit for them to

602
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,360
come back again.
But what why do we, why do we

603
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,240
think that?
It's because it's because BHP is

604
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:28,400
starkly aware of, you know, how
the, the very rich capital

605
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,080
intensity, their own organic
copper growth is and, and how,

606
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,680
you know, likely and probable it
is for that capital intensity to

607
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,840
blow out over time because you
don't realize it all straight

608
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,000
away or as you get certainty in
a deal.

609
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,000
And it's that discrepancy and
that kind of, you know, internal

610
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,760
look that drives their external
like, you know, M&A ambition.

611
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,040
So I expect them to try and be
aggressive here.

612
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:55,200
And it feels like it feels like
Anglo is the big prize to get.

613
00:33:55,200 --> 00:34:00,080
And I struggle to see them
letting it go without having one

614
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,600
more crack.
What do you think, Pete?

615
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:03,760
Yeah.
No, I think there's perfect

616
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,720
merit in that.
Perfect merit in that.

617
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:12,520
And yeah, to your point about
BHP's internal options having

618
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:17,199
relatively high cost to develop,
there's also a fair bit of risk

619
00:34:17,199 --> 00:34:19,760
in some of them.
So, you know, everybody loves

620
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,080
what they did at Vacuna and they
get a lot of praise for what was

621
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,040
a precedent entry to sort of get
their initial foot in there.

622
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,280
And you know, they seem to have
a high quality partner there

623
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,880
who's sensible, calm headed,
experienced.

624
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,040
But you know, it's still like
what, 5000 metres above sea

625
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,120
level?
A lot of humans don't operate

626
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,880
very well at 5000 metres.
And I know there is some mines

627
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,360
operating at that height, but
it's still going to be an effort

628
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,560
to get that thing developed
right.

629
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,040
And geopolitics, let's ring that
bell again.

630
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,320
Looks great right now while
you've got Malay in power in

631
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,160
Argentina with his with his
Riggy package, which not only

632
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,640
offers incentives but also
safeguards for foreign

633
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,720
investors.
But who knows what the next

634
00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:08,320
leader's going to be like?
And to make the Vacuna project

635
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,320
work well, they're going to have
to bring the water up from the

636
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,560
Chilean side.
They're going to have to bring a

637
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,600
lot of the equipment up from the
Chilean side.

638
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,280
And in their ideal world, they
would export the product through

639
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,080
the Chilean side.
So this is Argentinian copper.

640
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,720
So you're going to have to get
the Argentinian government and

641
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:29,680
society generally happy with
that happening.

642
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:35,200
Now, we've seen at Simendou the
reason there's a 650 kilometre

643
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,520
railway is because Guinea said
if you want to sell that iron

644
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,920
ore, you know, they used it I
guess, as a way to get a

645
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,840
transnational railway built, to
get ports built.

646
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,640
So it could, you know, step them
up and they have resisted the

647
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,560
idea to some degree of it going
the shorter route through

648
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,120
Liberia to port.
So will Argentina, you know,

649
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,840
will they will they sort of want
some of Vakuna's copper to go

650
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,320
out through Argentinian ports,
which would be thousands of

651
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,600
kilometres down to the coast.
So I'm not saying that they will

652
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,600
cause a problem there.
But Vakuna is still a relatively

653
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120
high risk project, right?
So difficult technical

654
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,400
difficulty is pretty high.
That's, that's a fantastic

655
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,400
point, Pete.
And we saw just over the weekend

656
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,440
as well, the Chileans had a hard
tilt to the, the right

657
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,240
politically with a new, with a
new leader coming in there.

658
00:36:25,240 --> 00:36:27,280
So we'll see how that kind of
shapes up.

659
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,440
You, you sort of mentioned the,
the softish issues around the

660
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,920
these companies and getting
deals done and, and that being

661
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,200
complicated.
And the other big one that has

662
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,720
been pretty present throughout
the year is succession.

663
00:36:39,720 --> 00:36:44,400
So we've seen Newmont Barrick
changed leadership, Rio Tinto

664
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,440
obviously changed leadership.
It was sort of framed, Henry

665
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:48,720
announces.
Exactly.

666
00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:52,560
It was framed as if this was a
Hail Mary for Mike and Anglo.

667
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,360
And that's a theme that's gone
all the way throughout the the

668
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,880
industry.
How do you think that kind of

669
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,160
shapes these these deals?
I mean, the Rio example is

670
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,960
really interesting, right?
Because Simon's come in and

671
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,000
there's been a complete shift
and we're seeing the share

672
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,560
price, like you say, hit all
time highs.

673
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,320
On the back of that.
The market is really liking the

674
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,040
the renewed vigor with which he
has taken to to cost cutting and

675
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,240
and getting deals kind of done.
But how do you think that plays

676
00:37:18,240 --> 00:37:20,160
a plays a role in the deal
making going forward?

677
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,640
Yeah, it's a good question.
I don't know.

678
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,640
I mean, I think the fact that
they went back as that BHP went

679
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:34,040
back for a second go at Anglo in
November, you don't do that if

680
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,800
your CEO is a lame duck guy, you
know, about to exit.

681
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:44,680
So I think in hindsight that
shows that Mike Henry was sort

682
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:49,200
of perhaps more engaged than
than, you know, many of us in

683
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,160
the media sort of, I guess
implied with our coverage as if,

684
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,080
you know, any day now he'll hand
over.

685
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:58,760
I mean, he's now, I think if he
it'll be August next, next year,

686
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,480
if he makes it to sort of July,
August next year, he'll be in

687
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,400
the job longer than Andrew
McKenzie and will be the longest

688
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:09,040
serving BHP boss since the
merger with Billiton.

689
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:16,200
How does it shape deals?
I don't know.

690
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:21,520
I mean if, if BHP is of the same
mind as Travis and thinks that

691
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,920
there's going to be a window to
get a deal done with Anglo

692
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,440
whilst we're waiting for
antitrust regulators and the

693
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:33,120
like to rub a stamp the
shareholder vote, then he'd be

694
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,880
going nowhere soon, wouldn't he?
He'd be there heavily engaged.

695
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:40,760
So I don't know, I mean,
succession's very, very hard to

696
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,920
read.
It's one of the, it's one of

697
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:47,560
the, it's one of the topics that
reminds me of the start of my

698
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:48,920
career.
I was a sport reporter.

699
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,080
And so we'd go down to, you
know, Richmond training in the

700
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,960
AFL and, you know, interview the
assistant coach and you'd have

701
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,520
like a little tip off that, oh,
such and such player's got a

702
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,600
dodgy hamstring and is actually
going to miss 3 weeks.

703
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,080
And you'd ask them the question
and they'd go, no, he's right to

704
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,040
go.
And then, of course, there'd be

705
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,440
a late withdrawal on the
Saturday.

706
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,440
And, you know, that openly sort
of knew.

707
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:08,440
Yeah.
Yeah.

708
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,000
We lied to you about that one.
And there was, you know, there

709
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,040
was sort of no, no comeuppance
for them.

710
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,120
As a business journalist, right,
Working in financial markets,

711
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,320
continuous disclosure means that
they can't really lie to you

712
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,600
often.
But secession is the one where

713
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,840
you sort of get told one week,
no plans, and then the next

714
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:31,440
week, the CEO's gone.
As for who would replace Mike,

715
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,280
that's going to be a fascinating
choice, right?

716
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,680
Because if you just judge it on
the publicly available

717
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:41,960
information, there's absolutely
no doubt that Geraldine Slattery

718
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,920
is considered to be in a more
senior position than all the

719
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,800
others.
You just have to look at what

720
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,520
she's paid.
You know, you just have to look

721
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,320
at the, the, I forget what it
was called.

722
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,280
Was it the retention bonus?
She got paid a retention bonus

723
00:39:56,280 --> 00:40:00,280
shortly after the BHP Woodside
deal, which basically says

724
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,360
thanks for not going to Woodside
to be, you know, if not the

725
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,520
senior person and extremely
senior person.

726
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,800
So she she presents as the
logical choice.

727
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:17,280
But you know, ACEO handover
isn't you don't just hand it to

728
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,880
the person who's next best
performer or next most senior

729
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,960
because it's a moment
potentially of great cultural

730
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:24,880
change, right?
Like someone might go into the

731
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,080
boardroom and throw them an
amazing idea to pivot the

732
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,720
company.
Towards something else and that

733
00:40:29,720 --> 00:40:33,680
person gets it, you know, so
there's dark horses in there

734
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:38,640
like Johann van Jarsfeld, who's
run a lot of the strategy in MNA

735
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,920
in the past six years or so.
You know, if the BHP board are

736
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:46,160
minded to these sorts of
creative things about deals and

737
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,000
do you break the company in half
to get a big deal done and all

738
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,880
these other conversations, then,
you know, people like Johann,

739
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,800
you know, that sort of stuff's
obviously Catherine Raw's beat

740
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,880
now.
And you know, everyone says

741
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,800
Catherine Raw's too young and
too fresh.

742
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,960
Well, she's been a CEO of a
company in the UKA multibillion

743
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,680
dollar company.
She's been CFO of Barrick.

744
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,840
How much?
You know, BHP has previously

745
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,480
appointed a 44 year old in Chip
Goodyear to be CEO.

746
00:41:14,240 --> 00:41:16,440
So yeah, it's going to be
interesting to watch.

747
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:22,840
And the, the Newmont you're do
you still keep close tabs on

748
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:27,600
Newmont Pete given the the, the
Melbourne the Melbourne basic

749
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,440
that was new Crest TomTom
Palmer's announced his departure

750
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,920
the exact same day that Bristow
got booted.

751
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:39,160
Seemed all very coincidental and
and and now you know, very

752
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:40,480
different reasons going on
there.

753
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,800
But the the the gold companies,
they're having their own sense

754
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:48,000
of of turnover at the top.
I feel like, I feel like on the

755
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,840
other side of that, you get you,
you get trepidation to do a, a

756
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,400
big deal in your, in your early
term as a new CEO, unless you're

757
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,520
super bold.
And, and heck, Speaking of that,

758
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,640
like we're seeing that from
Perseus right now, like the,

759
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,960
the, the, the new CEO is, is
going kind of to full steam

760
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,720
ahead on, on, on, on predictive,
despite being, you know, in that

761
00:42:09,720 --> 00:42:12,400
top job just a couple of months.
So it's not, it's not completely

762
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:13,800
out of the realm of
possibilities, but it is

763
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,760
abnormal when you get a new CEO,
especially one that's not an

764
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,600
internal pick, come in and and
do big deals right away.

765
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:21,920
Yeah.
And, and he's on that note,

766
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,040
isn't it interesting that Simon
Trott whilst has come in and

767
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,480
been very active, it's
divestments, right?

768
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:28,960
Yeah, that's the easy thing to
do.

769
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,600
I think like cut costs, divest
non core like low return on

770
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,720
capital business units, simplify
like I think those are the easy

771
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:38,840
and right decisions for capital
markets to really get behind

772
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,720
you.
And I'm, I'm a big fan of the

773
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,000
public rhetoric we've seen out
of Simon Trott since his

774
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,920
appointment.
Like he seems seems like a

775
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,240
breath of fresh air amidst what
seemed to me like absurdity

776
00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:51,160
coming from the majors for the
previous five years in general.

777
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,440
Yeah.
And so as it pertains to

778
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,400
Newmont, I don't have any
particularly close insight on

779
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,880
that.
Like, you know, perhaps I

780
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,440
shouldn't admit it, but I
probably followed Newcrest

781
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,800
closer than I do in Newmont
today just because they felt

782
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:07,880
closer.
And I guess, you know, the ASX

783
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:11,040
listing felt bigger and, and
more real.

784
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:18,240
But someone did point out to me
recently that the gap between

785
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:23,280
Newmont and BHP and Rio has
closed dramatically in the past

786
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,840
decade.
Like the graph was quite

787
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,520
staggering.
So I think, I mean, I won't try

788
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,000
and dream up the number.
Your audience will be able to

789
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,840
Google whatever the market cap
is of Newmont on the day they're

790
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,200
listening to this.
But you know, it's sort of

791
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,240
getting right up there.
Like, they're a big, and with

792
00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:42,480
the increasing focus on copper,
you know, at what point can you

793
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,120
sort of claim to be a
diversified miner?

794
00:43:46,240 --> 00:43:48,880
Zijin's the one to look at there
in terms of creeping right on

795
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:53,080
the the footsteps of of our BSP
and Rio like it looked, it

796
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:54,960
looked almost like they were
going to overtake them earlier

797
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,080
in the year.
And they've they've they've held

798
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,440
strong, but it's an evolving
landscape at the at the top of

799
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:03,760
things.
What's been you?

800
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,400
What's been your favorite deal
of the year, Pete?

801
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:11,280
Look, one that I thought was
really fun was Lavato Resources.

802
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,520
I think you guys tracked this
the the little gold antimony

803
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,760
thing in New South Wales.
So for people who haven't

804
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,560
followed it, obviously antimony
was this sort of Off Broadway

805
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,080
thing that no one thought much
about.

806
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:25,400
And then it became one of the
critical minerals that China,

807
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,600
you know, choked supply of
prices rally.

808
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,960
Next thing you know, the ASX
announcements platform has the

809
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,920
word antimony on it 17 times a
day where everyone's finding it

810
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,000
in their back pocket.
But La Votto they had, they went

811
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,080
and bought for like, I think it
was like $2,000,000, this old

812
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:45,320
gold project near I think near
Armadale in New South Wales.

813
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:50,000
And it's got antimony with it
and just an incredible share

814
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,400
price rise, like I think in the
thousands of percent.

815
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,680
And they're getting close to
restart.

816
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,600
And then, you know, we're
probably talking approximately

817
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,440
what, October, September,
October this year, in comes the

818
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,240
takeover bid.
In fact, it was October 21.

819
00:45:04,240 --> 00:45:06,960
I remember now because it was
the exact day that Anthony

820
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,560
Albanese was in the White House
with Donald Trump signing the

821
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,040
critical minerals sort of packed
thing.

822
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:15,160
And here we had an American
company trying to buy an

823
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,520
Australian antimony company.
So it was like for a journalist,

824
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,040
it was like the perfect, you
know, Segway of, you know,

825
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:21,720
themes all happening on the same
day.

826
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:28,600
But the suitor was fascinating.
United States Antimony Company,

827
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,840
USAC and I, you know, I'd never
heard of them, so I went and

828
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,760
looked them up and have a look
at their share price.

829
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,800
If you think Lovato, it had a
bit of a rise.

830
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:42,640
This thing had gone from well, I
mean, just look it up.

831
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,120
It was crazy.
And the bid, of course, was

832
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,320
script.
I'm not.

833
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,000
And the, so you know, the Lovato
directors, they go away and they

834
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,240
think about it and they say, oh,
we're going to decline this.

835
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:03,240
And the reaction to the USAC
share price is hilarious because

836
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,840
I think what it's actually done.
I mean, USAC probably thought

837
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,360
they were being clever trying to
buy while their script was

838
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,880
crazily inflated.
And they, you know, fair play to

839
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,680
them.
But I think all it did was it

840
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,680
made people turn around and look
at USAC and go, what?

841
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:18,800
This thing's trading times
earnings.

842
00:46:19,240 --> 00:46:22,960
And, you know, as a result, the
balloon has completely deflated

843
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:28,120
since as the market looked at US
antimity company and said, holy

844
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,760
crap, this is just this is like
a cappuccino with about that

845
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:34,040
much, you know, coffee and about
that much froth on top.

846
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,480
And so Lovato continue on their
merry way as an independent

847
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:42,520
ASICS listed company for now.
And yeah, USAC haven't come back

848
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,360
for a second crack.
I suspect they probably won't.

849
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,160
How about you guys?
Anything out there that you

850
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,120
found fun?
I think we're in the midst of a

851
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:54,160
pretty unreal one with
predictive Robex and Perseus.

852
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,240
We haven't seen the final
chapter there yet, but it's hard

853
00:46:57,240 --> 00:46:59,760
to look past that one.
Yeah, the battle for bank hands.

854
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,600
Unreal.
I've got, I've got one more that

855
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,640
I've I've learnt plenty on.
It wasn't anywhere near as

856
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:11,320
eventful, but I thought what's
now DPM Dundee buying Adriatic

857
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,680
was just so interesting.
I mean, we had been kind of

858
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,960
critical of, of Adriatic that
had problems ramping up, be it

859
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,040
ground conditions, recoveries,
these sorts of things.

860
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,120
And the, the stock kept rising.
They did so many fully funded

861
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,920
capital raises, the stock kept
rising and then they, they

862
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,480
crowned it with a, with a buyout
at almost an all time high.

863
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,000
So I think kind of as, as an
investor and, and as a kind of

864
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,640
bystander watching that one,
there was a lot of lessons to be

865
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,440
learned there.
Do you have any others come to

866
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,440
mind?
Just Speaking of lessons

867
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,560
learned, like I think my biggest
like, yeah, reflection on on,

868
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,240
on, on come on companies in the
last year is actually just come

869
00:47:49,240 --> 00:47:53,560
from looking at at min rez.
Yeah, the turn the turn around

870
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,240
story that's there.
Like I was, I was skeptical of

871
00:47:57,240 --> 00:47:59,720
their ability to execute, but
they've surprised me at every at

872
00:47:59,720 --> 00:48:04,920
every step and and and yeah,
it's just it's just been a very

873
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,200
impressive turn around story
there.

874
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:09,360
Despite kind of every every
obstacle that was was thrown at

875
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,000
them from from multiple
directions.

876
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,480
Operationally, things are going
really well.

877
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,280
They've deleveraged the balance
sheet with, with some, you know,

878
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,720
pretty, pretty impressive deals
and they've executed Onslow like

879
00:48:21,240 --> 00:48:25,400
amidst some, some some hiccups
on the road and the likes like

880
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,320
in a, in a very impressive way.
The volumes that they're

881
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,840
exporting out of there are are,
you know, truly commendable.

882
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,840
Yeah, it looks as though they're
through the hardest part of the

883
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,240
cycle, doesn't it?
It looks like they've sort of

884
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,160
you can.
They can now see the path out of

885
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:40,360
the forest.
Totally.

886
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,000
In fact, I I even think they're
out of the forest like the the

887
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:47,200
debt now is it's it's it's very
manageable, especially post

888
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,680
settlement of the POSCO deal.
Yeah, yeah.

889
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,360
And with, with iron ore where it
is like it's, it's just happy

890
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,200
days, yeah.
Yeah, so I who knows what

891
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,080
happens on the regulatory front,
but on the commodity side or

892
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,160
asset selling front and
operational front, you probably

893
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,040
I think you're dead right
question without notice.

894
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:09,480
So feel free to blanket a deal
that I haven't really understood

895
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:13,400
and I'm curious if you have, is
Z Gin Mining, you mentioned them

896
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,160
earlier, the big Chinese gold
miner that has gone from I think

897
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,560
10 billion to 100 billion or so
over the past nine years.

898
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,920
This year they did an IPO in
Hong Kong where I think they

899
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,400
listed all of their non Chinese
assets.

900
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,560
Gold com yeah that yeah non
Chinese gold assets.

901
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,440
They they maintained an 87%
interest.

902
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,760
I think so.
So they've floated 13% of the

903
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,160
the gold assets and up 70% on
day one.

904
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,240
Just ripped an order, yeah.
Off off the back I was.

905
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,920
Just going to say off the back
of that, Pete, I've just noticed

906
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:52,880
tremendous appetite from from a
variety of Chinese companies to

907
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:54,800
acquire international gold
assets.

908
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,800
In fact, as we're recording
today, Seymour just bought spent

909
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,440
a billion dollars buying
Equinoxes Brazilian gold assets

910
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:06,200
like a few days ago, Ling Ling
Bao doing the the the deal with

911
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,400
with Simberry.
Like there's just, it's almost

912
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:11,160
every, every every other day
there's a a different Chinese

913
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,320
gold company scooping up gold
assets around the world

914
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,280
somewhere.
That the Lingbao mob, I mean,

915
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,800
that's very interesting.
So Simberry obviously being an

916
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,920
island of the sort of what,
northeastern edge of Papua New

917
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,120
Guinea, I think Lingbao, this
time last year, we're talking

918
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,760
about them.
They were involved in the

919
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,760
Woodlock Island, which is on the
South side of PNG.

920
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,240
It was held at the time and
probably still is.

921
00:50:35,240 --> 00:50:38,120
Haven't done my research by Geo
Pacific Resources, the ASX

922
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:40,920
listed company.
So I'd, I'd love to be a family

923
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,560
on the wall in Lingbao
headquarters because it looks as

924
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,760
though they've got like they
like gold, but only if it's on a

925
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,720
tropical island.
So maybe this is like a White

926
00:50:49,720 --> 00:50:53,920
Lotus style gold mine and I
don't know luxury resort style

927
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,640
strategy that they're operating
here.

928
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,160
Yeah, there.
There's another little one as

929
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,200
well Titan in Ecuador and
Chinese companies have been very

930
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:04,520
active in in Ecuador to Jiangxi
copper another Chinese group

931
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,240
there as well.
But we butted in you were you

932
00:51:06,240 --> 00:51:08,200
were getting to a question on on
XI Jin.

933
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,240
I was wondering why, why do you
think they've done it?

934
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,040
Like do they just need a bit of
cash?

935
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,720
You know the the West Australian
asset they own near Kalgoorlie,

936
00:51:16,720 --> 00:51:19,720
That is, I gather in the Hong
Kong listed vehicle now.

937
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,680
I believe so.
Not in goldfields, yeah, yeah.

938
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:24,200
Why do they do it?
Yeah.

939
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:28,560
I honestly, I just think the
Hong Kong market has has had

940
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:31,720
remarkable appetite for for gold
exposure.

941
00:51:31,720 --> 00:51:34,800
And that's expressed in in many
ways, some of the the, you know,

942
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,760
the pure black gold listings
there, but but separate to that,

943
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,720
even like the gold jewellers
were some of the best performing

944
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,000
like listings on that Hong Kong
exchange.

945
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,800
So I just think I just think it
it was it was something that

946
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,640
just lowers their incremental
cost of capital for for, you

947
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,560
know, for for overseas, you
know, gold, gold, gold endeavors

948
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,680
as well by but if you have an
elevated share price, lower cost

949
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,400
of capital.
Yeah.

950
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,280
And there was there was massive
appetite there.

951
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,320
What what is interesting is it
last week.

952
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,280
So Chairman Chen, who's been a
big, big entrepreneur behind

953
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:10,280
Zijin's growth, he's he's
actually stepping down from,

954
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,000
from Zijin.
So that's, that's a, that's a

955
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,640
very big kind of succession
transition departure kind of

956
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,600
thing.
Absolutely in that company

957
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,480
story.
And remind me a little bit of

958
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,600
the other big Hong Kong listing
that's relevant for Australian

959
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:27,200
miners of this year is the
contemporary Amperex, the big

960
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,080
battery maker, China's big
battery maker.

961
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,600
They of course did a, a Hong
Kong float of of some sort as

962
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:35,440
well earlier this year, which,
you know, if you're awa lithium

963
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,400
miner, you know that that
matters.

964
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:41,480
And that my memory is that IPO
launched spectacularly as well.

965
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:45,040
Had a terrific first few days.
Yeah, they're, they're fiddling

966
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:49,000
with the on off switch at
Jiangxiwu has been the yeah, a

967
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:50,840
lot of ink has been spilled over
that one this year.

968
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,960
That's an interesting one.
Should we move on to a few more

969
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,520
predictions for the coming year?
Before you do that, JD, I feel

970
00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,840
like we've got to, we've got to
revisit what our predictions

971
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:03,000
were last year.
So we've just come come on the

972
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:07,000
back of Pete asking 30 fund
managers, what's the highest

973
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,520
conviction prediction?
What's the most non consensus

974
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:10,680
prediction?
What's the best performing

975
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,400
commodity and what's the worst
performing commodity?

976
00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:16,240
And JD and I actually answered
those questions in one of our,

977
00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:18,760
our last episodes of the year
last year.

978
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,040
I'll, I'll, I'll let you, I'll
let you hear how we responded to

979
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,920
those and then maybe we'll come
up with some new ones.

980
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:28,480
Price conviction diamond price
is lower in 12 months time.

981
00:53:29,240 --> 00:53:31,160
Lab diamonds continue to.
Ah.

982
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,320
High conviction pit be hard, but
I'd I'd rest pretty easy with

983
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:37,680
some of the met coal kind of
names.

984
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:42,440
I don't know if that's a
specifically 2025 thing, but I

985
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,360
think hold them in time.
You'll do well on some of those

986
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:50,400
names.
So well, don't JD, I think what

987
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,960
havens up up nicely diamond
price, natural diamond price I

988
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:56,240
think is down 5%.
So we both did well then mate on

989
00:53:56,240 --> 00:53:57,240
the highest condition
prediction.

990
00:53:57,240 --> 00:53:58,960
It's a one way Rd.
I don't know if this is

991
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:04,240
consensus or not, but I I think
the Chinese mining equities will

992
00:54:04,240 --> 00:54:09,920
outperform the Australian
producers of equivalent stature.

993
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,720
So like yeah, you say gins your
sign of mines.

994
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,480
Like those sorts of companies
would do better than the

995
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:20,840
equivalent ASX listed car.
Non consensus, pretty pretty

996
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:24,040
beaten up, eaten into the cost
curve, which we've touched on a

997
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:25,560
couple times throughout the
year.

998
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:32,440
I think PGMS to narrow it down,
I'll say plats or could go more

999
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:37,040
nation, say Rhodium.
We'll have a good year,

1000
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:39,360
something nobody really cares
about.

1001
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:42,440
There's a few companies in in
South Africa to kind of look at

1002
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,120
not.
Bad mate plants plants was like

1003
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:49,000
up 100%.
Mate, Chairman Chen back into

1004
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:51,280
Asian, Yeah, also had a good,
good year.

1005
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:52,640
The Chinese did that before.
Yeah.

1006
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:53,920
Yeah.
Well, mate, we're 2 from 2.

1007
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,880
How good is this?
I'll go tin best.

1008
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,680
I think Tim will do well.
Oh mate, 3 from three best

1009
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:02,720
performing from.
Not that Tim was the best, but

1010
00:55:02,720 --> 00:55:05,880
it did do very well and let's
see if we can take the cake by

1011
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,920
predicting the worst performing
commodity.

1012
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:16,440
Worst cardball up 117%.
Gold underperforming.

1013
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,520
Oh, we, we threw it away.
The wheels came up at the end

1014
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,440
there.
That's UN Australian.

1015
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:25,960
We cooked it.
We cooked it.

1016
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,240
Pete, you also threw some
predictions out there.

1017
00:55:28,240 --> 00:55:31,040
They weren't in relation to
those four questions, but we put

1018
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:32,880
you on the spot quite a bit in
our last episode.

1019
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:34,800
Let's revisit how you did, you
know, because we'll keep

1020
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,600
everyone accountable here.
One thing that should happen

1021
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:42,640
there at Lahia is that that gets
combined with some Barbara's

1022
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,960
Simbari.
Coba obviously is going to be a

1023
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,800
scene of consolidation most
likely.

1024
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:50,560
There's some deals that can be
done there you would have

1025
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:54,000
thought.
Interesting to watch what's

1026
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:57,960
happening up in those PNG
islands with Geo Pacific and

1027
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:01,120
their close neighbor Kingston at
Misama.

1028
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,280
Who else is going to do a deal?
We mentioned Sierra Gorda and

1029
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:05,560
Spencer, Probably may not be
next year but that's going to

1030
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:12,000
happen sometime soon.
I do wonder if some of those ASX

1031
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,960
listed coal miners make sense to
come together between the and

1032
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:21,920
coal Stanmore New Hope to like
make a more liquid register.

1033
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:24,360
And I wonder what's gonna happen
with Chalice right?

1034
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:28,400
A few years ago Sabani
Stillwater come into Australia

1035
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,920
and they wanted us to know they
were here and they were coming.

1036
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,600
I wonder if they saw Chalice as
their next thing.

1037
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,040
If you're a company like
Fortescue who still is saying we

1038
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,040
still think hydrogen's a big
thing and we want to be in

1039
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,640
hydrogen, why aren't they going
and buying Nell like and

1040
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:46,200
instantly getting hold of what
is it like 10% of the world's

1041
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,880
electrolyzer manufacturing
supply chain?

1042
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:52,640
So Pete, I think I think you had
some, some great, you know, Yep,

1043
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,480
deal, deal predictions there,
great logic, I think.

1044
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,000
That's a zero out of about 15
isn't?

1045
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,160
It you threw a lot of darts and
none of them came to fruition,

1046
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:03,400
but the logic was.
When I counted back, I was

1047
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:05,640
surprised because the the
rationale was so good.

1048
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:08,360
I mean, we saw a deal with
Simbiri for 1:00.

1049
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,160
We, we saw a geopacific deal as
well.

1050
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,400
Yeah, we didn't see the the coal
consolidation there, but I

1051
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,880
thought the thinking with with a
bunch of them, I guess we saw a

1052
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:21,640
deal in the cobar as well.
We saw CSA.

1053
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,960
Hey, Mark consolidation, I'm
giving you 0P, sorry, but.

1054
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:27,760
I'll give my I'll give myself 0
as well.

1055
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:28,640
Yeah.
Is it Cobar?

1056
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,040
The Cobar district?
Kind of fascinating that

1057
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,320
nothing's happened.
Oh.

1058
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,160
It's it's, it's always a next
year story.

1059
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,160
Let's let's see how you fit on
the other questions.

1060
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,880
We put you on the spot for a.
Couple quick fire predictions

1061
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:46,800
for 2025 What will the iron ore,
lithium and gold price be in one

1062
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,960
year's time?
Iron ore.

1063
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:56,280
Iron ore will be 91 US lithium
spodumain.

1064
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:03,960
Cover your ears now.
Tony Odeviano 800 USA ton and

1065
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:07,920
gold I'm I'm getting on the Greg
Robinson train, $5000 an ounce.

1066
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:10,640
So I've got to give you credit
there.

1067
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:12,280
You had some pretty good
predictions there, mate.

1068
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,080
I think your predictions on
commodity price were probably

1069
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,880
better than any research analyst
who who tried to endeavour and

1070
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,560
predicting the same last year.
There was some great kills,

1071
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:22,840
yeah.
Gold 5000 bucks an ounce people.

1072
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:24,560
We would have laughed you out
the door last year, but you

1073
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,040
actually seem pretty damn close
to reality, so well done.

1074
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,280
Lithium was 800 bucks about a
week ago, yeah.

1075
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,640
And I know staying resilient.
Yeah, well done.

1076
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:36,480
That was great.
Four points for for that one.

1077
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,400
Let's let's see how you did on
the the rest.

1078
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:41,560
Will BHB have another bite at
Anglo in the next year?

1079
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,320
Yeah.
Yes, I think so, yeah.

1080
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,520
Look, look, the end of your
question is probably the only

1081
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:48,800
uncertainty, isn't it?
Will it be next year or will

1082
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,960
they, will they wait longer?
But look, they've, they've

1083
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,080
looked like a place that is a
bit impatient.

1084
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,680
And I don't say that as a
criticism, but Mike Henry and

1085
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,640
Ken McKenzie are not going to
die wondering.

1086
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,920
They've made that abundantly
clear these past few years.

1087
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:04,480
That's a stellar code.
I don't pay.

1088
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:08,560
What's the big theme that we
reflect back on in 12 months

1089
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:15,520
time?
Maybe the AFR takeover bid for

1090
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:20,760
money or five.
Still waiting for that one.

1091
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,080
Pete, we're done.
Look forward.

1092
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:26,800
To that.
We're that close.

1093
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,920
No, the the rationale with BHP
and Anglo as we kind of touched

1094
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,360
on before was was great as well.
So I thought there was some

1095
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,720
really good picks and I'm very
keen to hear what you've got in

1096
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:38,800
store.
Should we run through a few for

1097
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,880
2026 guys?
I have to think about how he's

1098
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:42,680
like 10 minutes before we
started recording, mate.

1099
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:44,400
So Pete, why don't you kick us
off?

1100
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,280
What's your highest conviction
prediction for the year ahead?

1101
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:53,400
I think if you think about the
top five ASX listed gold miners,

1102
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:57,560
Yep, I think there'll be a new
entrant by this time next year.

1103
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:01,400
And really, predicting this
within one year is probably a

1104
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:02,600
bit bullish.
It's probably a two to

1105
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:04,640
three-year call.
But for the sake of the theatre,

1106
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:06,640
let's do it for this time next
year.

1107
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:11,080
Top five ASX gold miner Endura
Mining.

1108
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,680
Wow.
So your audience who aren't

1109
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:17,400
familiar with this, this is a
privately held company that

1110
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:21,600
largely owned by Australian
Super and it is.

1111
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,440
The leadership of this company
is * studded.

1112
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:28,200
You've got directors basically
from all of the big ASX listed

1113
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,080
gold miners.
You've got Jake Klein from

1114
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:33,760
Evolution as the chairman, Bob
Vassey, the former St.

1115
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:36,600
Barbara CEO.
And now what is the chairman of

1116
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:38,520
Remelius?
Is that right?

1117
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:45,160
Yes, you've got a director on
there, Tony Keenan, Northern

1118
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:46,240
Star.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

1119
01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:52,160
Is it miss, Miss Langer from
Genesis?

1120
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:57,360
Shout out if I'm wrong.
So anyway, you've got this weird

1121
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,800
thing where all of the big gold
miners are allowing their

1122
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:05,560
directors to go onto this other
thing privately held with

1123
01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:09,720
Australia's biggest Superfund
involved and all for like some

1124
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:15,360
little thing in New Zealand.
So it's, it almost feels like a

1125
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:20,080
hobby farm, right?
It's like, but so surely this

1126
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:24,800
thing is actually made for
greater honours.

1127
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,000
It will be a vehicle to do
something like it.

1128
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,560
And I've racked my brain as to
what they could do right?

1129
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,920
Like, you know, Oceana Gold's
got 2 gold mines in New Zealand.

1130
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,240
Does this thing end up buying
them or, or what does it do?

1131
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,480
And the thing that fascinates me
most, so it's already pretty

1132
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:44,640
high-powered and pretty
star-studded just for those

1133
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,640
names that I've mentioned and,
you know, Australian Super, no

1134
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:51,320
one's got more money really.
But in my conversations with the

1135
01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:55,600
big multinational diversified
miners, they are strangely

1136
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,320
conscious of this thing and I
can't really work out why, but

1137
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:05,240
they are taking notice of it.
So I'd watch this space.

1138
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:08,160
I like it.
That's a big, that's a big

1139
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,760
prediction for in the space of
one year to go from private to

1140
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:13,160
top five, a big goal.
Nice, Pete.

1141
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:15,960
What's the bar?
There's a $5 billion company to

1142
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:16,840
be the top five.
It's.

1143
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:20,360
Probably higher now, probably a
bit high.

1144
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,240
Yeah, maybe Genesis rounds it
out.

1145
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:27,360
Yeah, I like it, Pete, highest
conviction prediction just like

1146
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:29,120
you.
I'll, I'll have a bit of a, a

1147
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:33,600
caveat that I think this plays
out over a few more years, but I

1148
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:35,560
just think the energy space,
when I look across the

1149
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,760
commodities and think about
what's, what's really beaten up,

1150
01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:43,240
I think the, the energy names
and I think you can sort of

1151
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,920
search high and low.
The ASX really doesn't have too

1152
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,880
many of these names.
I think there's names in even

1153
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,120
weirder kind of parts of the
world in, in the North Seas

1154
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:53,400
ones.
We've spoken about Trev, where

1155
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,920
you're getting paid nearly a 15%
dividend to kind of wait.

1156
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:02,920
And I think with, you know, oil
under 60 bucks, you will get the

1157
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:04,240
chance.
Who knows exactly what they're

1158
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:06,520
going to be in 12 months time,
but you will get the chance to

1159
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:11,160
to have have a bit of an uplift
or get paid to wait there.

1160
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,360
So that's one I'm kind of
comfortable in.

1161
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:18,200
What about you, Trev?
Nice, 2025 was a was a year of

1162
01:03:18,560 --> 01:03:21,720
massive margin expansion for
especially, especially gold

1163
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:26,840
producers, right?
And I, I'm still still bullish

1164
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:31,560
gold, don't get me wrong, but I
think, I think 2026 royalty

1165
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:33,680
companies are going to
outperform because like to your

1166
01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:36,840
thesis as well, If you have, if
you have the energy complex come

1167
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,200
up, well, that actually
increases costs.

1168
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,760
And, and you, you know, you
might actually have a very

1169
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,720
healthy like gold price outlook,
but you could still experience

1170
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:47,520
margin compression.
And when there's margin

1171
01:03:47,520 --> 01:03:50,560
compression in the miners like
it's, it's still gravy for the

1172
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:52,960
royalty companies because guess
what, royalties don't have

1173
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,600
costs.
So I'm banking on royalties

1174
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:59,520
versus -2026.
I like it Pete.

1175
01:03:59,920 --> 01:04:05,320
Non consensus view.
Just on royalties, before we

1176
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:08,000
move on, if I may slightly
hijack your show, did you see

1177
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:11,880
the Black Rock World Mining
Trust sold at a great profit?

1178
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:15,600
The royalty they had on the
Brazilian copper and gold assets

1179
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:20,080
of what was Avanco became as
minerals became BHP.

1180
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,120
That was an interesting one,
Yeah, yeah.

1181
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:25,560
Something like the like the buy
in was somewhere close to 10

1182
01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:29,280
million I think and they sold it
for 13 times that or something.

1183
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:30,560
Yeah.
Royalties are amazing.

1184
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,320
Like, yeah, they're true special
assets.

1185
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,640
Yeah, sorry, Jonas, what was the
question?

1186
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,080
Most non consensus prediction
for 26.

1187
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:45,800
Hydrogen, the commodity is to be
on is back now.

1188
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:49,920
I mean, I'm I'm really swinging
for the fence here for the sake

1189
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:53,680
of entertainment.
But if, as I know, you guys do,

1190
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:55,720
if you take the theory that you
should buy stuff when it's

1191
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:59,640
hated, hydrogen's hated.
What's hated right now, you'd

1192
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,280
probably say nickel and
hydrogen, and hydrogen's

1193
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:06,520
probably hated even more.
So I can't really give you a

1194
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:09,320
credible reason as to why
hydrogen is going to have a

1195
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:13,280
Goodyear, only that, you know,
maybe the elastic band is being

1196
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:15,920
pulled back in a negative
direction far enough that you

1197
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:22,040
know it'll come back a bit.
The thing about hydrogen also is

1198
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,720
that you can play it through an
ETF.

1199
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:29,240
You know, there are some ETFs
that hold, you know, a basket of

1200
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,920
20 hydrogen stocks. 19 are
probably scams.

1201
01:05:32,680 --> 01:05:37,920
Yeah, 19 of them will probably
go broke, but if one of them

1202
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:39,600
goes right, you might go pretty
well.

1203
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:41,400
Sorry.
So I look forward to this being

1204
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:45,640
replayed in a year's time when,
yeah, hydrogen's been erased

1205
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:47,520
from the human dictionary.
I like it.

1206
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:49,880
I I dread this being played in a
year's time.

1207
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:51,480
Trev, have you got a non
consensus for you?

1208
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:56,920
I, I, I do and I'll before I
give mine, I kind of like you

1209
01:05:56,920 --> 01:05:59,760
thinking on what's hated.
So I was, I was pitching to JD

1210
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:03,160
the other day, but look at
carbon credit markets, like

1211
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:05,680
surely they're a place to look
for, for hated, hated

1212
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:08,800
commodities right now.
Anyway, I I'd deter because my

1213
01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:13,000
no non consensus prediction.
I actually think another thing

1214
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:16,680
2025 was the year of geopolitics
influencing metals of mining

1215
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:18,360
markets.
And everyone talks about 2026 to

1216
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,120
just be an extension of that
theme or growth of that theme.

1217
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,520
I think, I think 20.
I think geopolitics is going to

1218
01:06:24,520 --> 01:06:26,960
matter less in 2026 than it did
in 2025.

1219
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:31,320
I think it's peak geopol in the
same way 2021 was peak ESG.

1220
01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:33,880
Like it still mattered in 2223
but less and less.

1221
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:37,000
And I think I think 25 is peak
geopolitics.

1222
01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:43,000
I like that so.
Would you extend that, Trev, to

1223
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:48,880
say that there will be a, a sort
of a coming back together of

1224
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:50,680
China and the US?
Is that what we're going to see?

1225
01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:53,560
A bear hug between Donald and
GE?

1226
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:59,080
I'm no expert on this, but, but
I, but I think, I think a deal

1227
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:00,960
will happen at some stage there.
Yeah.

1228
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:05,680
And the and the deal by the way,
probably will see, yeah, the US

1229
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:10,120
leave the Asia Pacific, which
will be a very, very interesting

1230
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:13,280
new world order for Australia.
We'll have lots of very

1231
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:19,400
affordable railroads.
Very good.

1232
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:25,920
I'll throw 1 into the mix.
PGMS to outperform versus gold.

1233
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,000
So gold has obviously done
phenomenal.

1234
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:33,040
That ratio is out of whack and
it has been for a long time.

1235
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:34,720
So who's to say it'll close this
year.

1236
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:39,280
But you know we've seen the one
between silver and gold close up

1237
01:07:39,280 --> 01:07:41,960
a bit.
So I'm curious to see if, if

1238
01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:47,560
platinum, which is aged gold
this this year and that kind of

1239
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:49,880
basket, the PGM basket, I'm
curious to see whether that

1240
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:55,840
continues to to kind of close
its gap after 15 years of of

1241
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,960
kind of shocking performance.
And I'll throw one more into the

1242
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:00,840
mix as well.
We kind of live in a world where

1243
01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:03,520
volatility has been just on the
nose.

1244
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:07,600
So I think volatility will will
rise.

1245
01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:10,120
We have plenty of ATS in which
you can play this.

1246
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,800
And yeah, I think we've seen
these big spikes.

1247
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:17,720
You know, there's probably been
three or four or five over the

1248
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,319
last five years.
Liberation Day is 1.

1249
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:25,520
COVID is obviously a massive 1.
But I think volatility will will

1250
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:28,279
come back as the world keeps
heading in the direction it is

1251
01:08:28,279 --> 01:08:32,080
going.
Next up is best commodity.

1252
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:34,080
Who's going to go first here,
Pete?

1253
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,439
Well, I've I've kind of have
gone hydrogen, but why don't I

1254
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:41,439
throw in?
I was going to throw a nickel

1255
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:48,120
just because it's hated.
But maybe, maybe met coal.

1256
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:53,279
Maybe met coal just based on, I
don't know, there's a complex

1257
01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:57,240
interplay happening at the
moment between China and the US,

1258
01:08:57,240 --> 01:09:00,399
sorry, between China and India
on steel.

1259
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:03,680
You know, the, there are
sections of the Indian business

1260
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:07,479
community, the steelmakers like
Tata who are fuming at all the

1261
01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:09,359
Chinese steel that's getting
dumped in India.

1262
01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:13,240
There's a there's a lot to think
about there for Australia

1263
01:09:13,240 --> 01:09:16,279
because, you know, the default
position was the Indian steel

1264
01:09:16,279 --> 01:09:19,439
industry is going to grow
dramatically out, you know, in

1265
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,080
the next decade.
And that that would really help

1266
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:25,600
Queensland met coal exporters
because India does not have much

1267
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:32,120
of its own met coal.
If China is going to continue to

1268
01:09:32,279 --> 01:09:35,200
produce over produce steel at
the rate it is and, you know,

1269
01:09:35,319 --> 01:09:41,840
export it everywhere, does
Indian steel growth occur?

1270
01:09:41,880 --> 01:09:45,479
And therefore, you know, does
QLD metcoal miss out on that?

1271
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:48,000
These are all sort of questions
that I don't know the answer to,

1272
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:52,000
but perhaps I don't know,
perhaps if there's some sort of

1273
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:56,280
deal, as we were mentioning
before for China to sort of, you

1274
01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:58,480
know, ease tensions, maybe
they'll be a bit less steel

1275
01:09:58,480 --> 01:10:00,760
exported.
Maybe Indian steel will go

1276
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:02,840
ahead, maybe metcoal wins, I
don't know.

1277
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:05,720
A.
Bit of retrieve, yeah, Yeah.

1278
01:10:05,720 --> 01:10:10,720
How about you, Trev?
I, I am, I'm pretty buoyant on,

1279
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:14,920
on all commodities next year
with the exception of a small

1280
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:16,960
number like diamonds in
particular.

1281
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:20,520
But I'm pretty, pretty buoyant
on most, most commodities I

1282
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:23,280
think.
I think like uranium, lithium,

1283
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:24,600
gold are all going to have good
years.

1284
01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:25,920
So the retail guys will be
happy.

1285
01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:29,640
I think I'm still very bullish
on TN and PGMS, but what I'm

1286
01:10:29,640 --> 01:10:32,280
picking to be the best
performing, the best performing

1287
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:36,800
commodity, thermal coal,
specifically nuke current the

1288
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:39,600
index currently at US108 per
ton.

1289
01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:43,920
I think that's a, that's a
cyclical low, I reckon.

1290
01:10:44,280 --> 01:10:47,440
I reckon, yeah, you've got a
chance of a 5060% uplift on that

1291
01:10:47,440 --> 01:10:49,080
next year.
Yeah.

1292
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:52,320
Can't argue with that.
And yeah, it might be a bit of a

1293
01:10:52,320 --> 01:10:54,840
cop out, but I've got a similar
kind of basket approach and I've

1294
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:58,880
got a bit of a basket approach
on the the short side as well.

1295
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:03,000
But I said rhodium and PGMS last
year, I think they continue to

1296
01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:06,400
to do well.
And the other one is energy and

1297
01:11:06,400 --> 01:11:11,800
energy is oil, coal and uranium.
I think uranium's on, we've been

1298
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:16,040
a touch quieter on lately, but I
think that continues to to grind

1299
01:11:16,040 --> 01:11:19,400
higher.
So yeah, I think maybe you can

1300
01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:22,400
mark me by averaging those ones,
but I think they they'll all do

1301
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:23,400
well.
Which coal?

1302
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:26,760
Newcastle Thermal.
Yeah, yeah.

1303
01:11:26,800 --> 01:11:29,880
Cool.
Worst commodity guys, what are

1304
01:11:29,880 --> 01:11:33,400
we bearish on?
I'll double down.

1305
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,640
Well, I'm going to make, I'll
make myself a target.

1306
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:39,760
I'll say gold because Travis
told me that there's going to

1307
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:42,120
be, you know, coming together
between China and the US So

1308
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:44,280
therefore gold, you know, suits.
Jeez.

1309
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:48,720
Don't put that one on me here.
I don't want to be able to

1310
01:11:48,720 --> 01:11:49,280
count.
I would have had.

1311
01:11:49,280 --> 01:11:55,200
That's like a 2028 prediction.
Worst commodity and very non

1312
01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:57,200
consensus there Pete.
What are you going for, Trav?

1313
01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:01,880
Cobalt doubling down here.
Cobalt absolutely surprised me

1314
01:12:02,000 --> 01:12:05,080
that it's up 170%.
That's not based on, you know,

1315
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:08,120
supply really being curtailed.
That's based on export controls

1316
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:12,480
from the DRC.
That supply needs to rinse out

1317
01:12:12,480 --> 01:12:15,960
and that commodity should fall.
Yeah, yeah.

1318
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:19,440
I've got to kind of, you know,
build your own ETF here and it's

1319
01:12:19,440 --> 01:12:20,880
a basket.
There's a few different layers

1320
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:24,120
to it, so tungsten and antimony.
I think these have just had

1321
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,160
incredible runs this year and I
think that'll incentivize new

1322
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:30,920
production.
NDPR is such a weird one because

1323
01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:35,560
I'm very curious what happens
with the the price flaws and

1324
01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:39,160
what that then leads to for a
kind of spot floating price.

1325
01:12:39,440 --> 01:12:42,000
If all these producers are
producing and they're just

1326
01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:44,360
selling to governments or
there's government agreed off

1327
01:12:44,360 --> 01:12:48,920
takes for 110 bucks NDPR, does
that mean the spot price kind of

1328
01:12:48,920 --> 01:12:50,720
falls?
I'm not sure I'll throw it in

1329
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:53,360
the in the mix there.
And then to round out my ETF

1330
01:12:53,760 --> 01:12:58,120
diamonds, I think I'll just pick
up another 5% down and cobalt

1331
01:12:58,160 --> 01:13:00,680
because of the exact reasons
you've you've laid out there.

1332
01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:02,600
So.
Just to make myself really

1333
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:06,280
unpopular, guys, I wonder,
devil's advocate, should we be

1334
01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:09,880
saying copper because everybody
loves copper, right?

1335
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:12,360
It's like the Saint of the
industry that no one ever has a

1336
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:15,240
bad word to say.
But isn't it the case that the

1337
01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:20,360
strong rally in copper prices
this year was partly about this,

1338
01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:24,320
the tariffs, right, the physical
thing that people were trying to

1339
01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:28,240
get the metal into North America
ahead of tariffs occurring and

1340
01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:31,360
there's now some unnaturally
large amount of the world's

1341
01:13:31,360 --> 01:13:35,840
copper in North America.
So is it possible that the price

1342
01:13:35,840 --> 01:13:39,120
this year just rallied on a
short term temporary dynamic and

1343
01:13:39,120 --> 01:13:43,280
that perhaps next year if some
of the interrupted mines around

1344
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:47,920
the world resume a bit of
production and you know, and

1345
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:51,520
this factor of trying to get it
into North America fades, maybe

1346
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:54,680
copper eases a bit?
I think your thinking is is

1347
01:13:54,680 --> 01:13:57,560
really sound there, Pete.
I couldn't put it in either

1348
01:13:57,560 --> 01:14:00,560
basket and a lot of that came
down to what you said right at

1349
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:02,560
the end there.
It's just so primed for for

1350
01:14:02,560 --> 01:14:06,320
disruptions and we don't know
exactly how they'll play out.

1351
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:08,240
So I'm.
Super bullish, copper, super

1352
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:09,600
bullish.
Yeah, the whole base metal is

1353
01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:11,120
complex.
I'm like, I'm very bold.

1354
01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:14,600
Bold on, yeah.
Yeah, I think there's a a lot of

1355
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:18,160
reasons, but putting a one year
timeline on all these things

1356
01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:20,040
makes it that much more
difficult, doesn't it?

1357
01:14:20,800 --> 01:14:23,200
That's right.
So yes, everyone's bullish on a

1358
01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:25,880
10 year view.
But yeah, I wonder, I wonder on

1359
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:28,400
a one year view.
But again, look forward to that

1360
01:14:28,400 --> 01:14:32,000
being replayed in a year's time.
And why don't we wrap up with a

1361
01:14:32,000 --> 01:14:35,080
few M and A predictions, Just
throw a few more darts at the

1362
01:14:35,080 --> 01:14:36,960
board.
Trev, I know you're a big fan of

1363
01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:37,600
M&A.
I'll start.

1364
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,320
With Pete, Pete's got great
Pete, great logic and a 0%.

1365
01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:42,840
Stronger.
Well, yeah, I'll, I'll lean back

1366
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:46,120
on my Endura mining.
That was my main one.

1367
01:14:46,440 --> 01:14:52,240
I still think maybe I'll just
keep saying Spence copper and S

1368
01:14:52,240 --> 01:14:56,640
32 until it happens.
I think that's fairly fairly

1369
01:14:56,640 --> 01:15:01,280
difficult to to not back in and
it'll be interesting to watch.

1370
01:15:01,480 --> 01:15:04,920
Rare earths weren't it?
I mean, we saw a lioness and MP

1371
01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:07,640
were talking.
That sort of doesn't feel like

1372
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:11,800
it can happen now with the big
rise that MP had.

1373
01:15:12,400 --> 01:15:14,680
For a while there, you might
have thought Neo performance

1374
01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,440
materials would be a target from
someone wanting to vertically

1375
01:15:18,440 --> 01:15:22,560
integrate, and maybe that still
happens.

1376
01:15:22,680 --> 01:15:26,240
But yeah, like, yeah, maybe,
maybe I'll stick with Endura and

1377
01:15:26,240 --> 01:15:28,280
Spence.
I like it.

1378
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:31,760
I like backing yourself for a
second year in as well, Travis.

1379
01:15:32,480 --> 01:15:34,120
I'll pick up on your Linus
thread there.

1380
01:15:34,920 --> 01:15:38,880
So, so we've got news last week
that Tronox is now getting their

1381
01:15:38,880 --> 01:15:43,440
lick of of refinery bucks.
I was big on big on my theory

1382
01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:47,080
that Lioness would buy Luca.
I've changed my mind Linus to

1383
01:15:47,080 --> 01:15:51,840
Bytronox.
I like it and I think I think

1384
01:15:51,840 --> 01:15:53,480
they've got a common director,
don't they?

1385
01:15:53,600 --> 01:15:55,520
Isn't Vanessa Guthrie on the
board of both?

1386
01:15:55,560 --> 01:15:58,080
I didn't know that.
Not that that would matter.

1387
01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:02,080
High, high quality, very proper
person.

1388
01:16:02,160 --> 01:16:04,920
But of course.
But yeah, they, they know each

1389
01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:08,080
other well, yeah.
I've got a bunch of deal

1390
01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:10,560
prediction stuff there but I'll
I'll save them for a later date.

1391
01:16:10,560 --> 01:16:12,040
I've got like 20 deal
predictions.

1392
01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:14,120
Look like a lunatic saying them
all.

1393
01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:17,160
Sounds like a bonus episode for
the new year period while you

1394
01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:20,520
feed her up.
Pete, you've you've spoken and

1395
01:16:20,520 --> 01:16:22,960
written about Lion Town over the
year and they've actually popped

1396
01:16:22,960 --> 01:16:25,720
up on potentially doing a brine
related deal.

1397
01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:29,440
Is that in your in your bingo
card for next year?

1398
01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:36,000
Well, maybe I mean, I, I should
probably stop making predictions

1399
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:39,320
about Lyontown because in an
article over the last Christ,

1400
01:16:39,320 --> 01:16:43,560
last year's Christmas period, I
sort of made the point that

1401
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:46,080
based on the crude mathematics
of how much cash they're

1402
01:16:46,080 --> 01:16:50,560
burning, 1/4 Lyontown could be
broke by this time next year, IE

1403
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,520
Christmas 2025.
And that didn't go unnoticed

1404
01:16:54,520 --> 01:16:58,560
down at Lyontown headquarters.
If you're a shareholder in

1405
01:16:58,560 --> 01:17:00,720
Lyontown, you should be very,
very happy because.

1406
01:17:01,200 --> 01:17:03,280
We're all shareholders.
Well, there you go.

1407
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,560
This is the Australian
government well.

1408
01:17:06,120 --> 01:17:11,040
Well said, well said.
Lion Town fights for its honour

1409
01:17:11,040 --> 01:17:12,560
in a way that I very much
admire.

1410
01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:17,400
Maybe.
I mean, so when Pilbara Minerals

1411
01:17:17,400 --> 01:17:22,040
or PLS as they now called went
and did a spodge mean deal, I

1412
01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:23,480
don't know.
We sort of looked at that and

1413
01:17:23,480 --> 01:17:25,760
said shouldn't you be
diversifying?

1414
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:28,920
And their rationale was, well,
we don't have spodge mean is the

1415
01:17:28,920 --> 01:17:30,560
thing we have core competency
in.

1416
01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:35,280
So I guess, I guess that's the
sort of, that's the tension,

1417
01:17:35,280 --> 01:17:36,640
isn't it?
Do you go and buy something

1418
01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:41,120
you've got core competency in or
do you try and straddle both

1419
01:17:41,120 --> 01:17:43,800
sides of the lithium world?
I would have thought it's they

1420
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:47,560
need to get on top of Kathleen
Valley first, don't they?

1421
01:17:47,560 --> 01:17:50,960
I don't feel like that
situation's in control to be

1422
01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:53,880
going off and buying things.
Well said.

1423
01:17:54,160 --> 01:17:57,520
Well said, Pete.
In, in general, I think I think

1424
01:17:57,520 --> 01:18:00,600
the best M&A opportunities are
looking around the sector and

1425
01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:02,480
I'll look at, I look at my own
portfolio, what have I got?

1426
01:18:02,480 --> 01:18:04,800
A lot of it's undeveloped
projects and I think are worthy

1427
01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:07,360
of of corporate action.
And I think that that that

1428
01:18:07,360 --> 01:18:10,120
there's yeah, that's, that's
like a, you know, the

1429
01:18:10,120 --> 01:18:13,800
mispricing.
They're very attractive, very

1430
01:18:13,800 --> 01:18:16,920
worthy undeveloped projects.
Like, you know, it doesn't take,

1431
01:18:17,120 --> 01:18:19,800
doesn't take much for, for a
corporate to appreciate that

1432
01:18:19,800 --> 01:18:21,720
value and then price it
appropriately with a deal.

1433
01:18:21,720 --> 01:18:25,920
So that's kind of a just a, you
know, a female I'm I'm willing

1434
01:18:25,920 --> 01:18:28,880
to continuously bet on.
I've got about 5 here and they

1435
01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:30,400
all fit that category.
Yeah, exactly.

1436
01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:35,920
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, Pete.
And and another one to watch

1437
01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:39,480
will be interesting is the
little known ASX listed company

1438
01:18:39,480 --> 01:18:41,320
called DGR Global.
Oh.

1439
01:18:42,080 --> 01:18:44,480
Jeez, so.
In the last couple of days,

1440
01:18:44,480 --> 01:18:49,600
we've seen BHP support a
takeover of Sogod by the Chinese

1441
01:18:49,640 --> 01:18:54,160
company Jiangxi Copper.
Now, this ASX listed company

1442
01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:57,080
called DGR owns about 6 to 7% of
Soul Gold.

1443
01:18:57,080 --> 01:19:00,720
So notionally that stays worth
what, like 114 million or

1444
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:04,800
something like that?
DG Rs market cap is 38 million.

1445
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:08,320
And so on face value, you could
look at that and go, wow,

1446
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:11,120
there's a mismatch here.
You know, someone's going to get

1447
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:15,040
in and it will rewrite.
Why isn't it rewriting?

1448
01:19:15,600 --> 01:19:19,040
Well, everyone can have their
own views, but in the spirit of

1449
01:19:19,040 --> 01:19:24,400
do your own research, read the
DGR annual report and look for

1450
01:19:24,720 --> 01:19:29,560
the many disclosures about the
fact that you know there's lots

1451
01:19:29,560 --> 01:19:34,120
of places that the sole gold
windfall will go before it

1452
01:19:34,400 --> 01:19:36,200
potentially gets returned to
shareholders.

1453
01:19:36,280 --> 01:19:38,600
World's worst financing ever
like.

1454
01:19:38,600 --> 01:19:39,480
Isn't.
That fair?

1455
01:19:39,480 --> 01:19:43,120
Oh my God, but I that that that
was abhorrent.

1456
01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,080
What that company did like 16
months ago.

1457
01:19:46,080 --> 01:19:48,800
I want to say abhorrent.
No regard for shareholders other

1458
01:19:48,800 --> 01:19:53,680
than certain certain someone.
Pete, you've given us a bit more

1459
01:19:53,680 --> 01:19:56,560
Christmas reading to do.
Love speaking with you, as

1460
01:19:56,560 --> 01:19:58,520
always.
Have enjoyed this chat.

1461
01:19:58,520 --> 01:20:01,680
And yeah, it's been a very
eventful 2025.

1462
01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,240
Here's hoping 2026 is just as
good.

1463
01:20:04,240 --> 01:20:06,320
I hope you have a great
Christmas and New Year's period,

1464
01:20:06,320 --> 01:20:08,880
Matt.
Likewise, and if I may be so

1465
01:20:08,880 --> 01:20:11,560
bold as to try and speak on
behalf of your audience, thanks

1466
01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:14,160
to you guys for, you know, the
big year you've had and keeping

1467
01:20:14,160 --> 01:20:15,840
it going.
It was a huge year for you guys,

1468
01:20:15,840 --> 01:20:18,560
you know, with, you know, the
great Matt Michael moving on.

1469
01:20:19,480 --> 01:20:23,120
And what you guys have done this
year, I reckon reminds me of

1470
01:20:23,120 --> 01:20:24,880
when Buddy Franklin left
Hawthorne.

1471
01:20:25,240 --> 01:20:27,720
You know, Hawthorne came out the
next year and won the flag.

1472
01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:32,760
And when Gary Ablett junior left
Geelong in 2010 to go to the

1473
01:20:32,760 --> 01:20:35,160
Gold Coast, Geelong came out the
next year and won the flag.

1474
01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:42,160
So, you know, Matt Michael was a
star, an absolute like star

1475
01:20:42,160 --> 01:20:45,720
quality is just poured out of
that guy into a camera, into a

1476
01:20:45,720 --> 01:20:47,960
microphone.
But even with his departure,

1477
01:20:47,960 --> 01:20:51,720
this is a great show that when I
move around the industry I meet

1478
01:20:51,880 --> 01:20:56,240
so many people who love it.
So well done to you and hope you

1479
01:20:56,560 --> 01:20:59,520
get a great rest and come back
and do it all again next year.

1480
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:01,040
I.
Appreciate it Pete means a lot.

1481
01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:02,640
Thanks Pete.
We look forward to working

1482
01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:05,600
alongside you after the AFR
money of my merger in 2026.

1483
01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:10,200
No, it's a reverse merger.
There we go mate, have you got

1484
01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:11,880
any?
What else is left on your mind

1485
01:21:11,880 --> 01:21:14,560
before we say goodbye to the
money miners for another year?

1486
01:21:14,960 --> 01:21:16,960
For another year.
Well, chatting with Pete is

1487
01:21:16,960 --> 01:21:19,320
always great.
He's a man who I get a lot of

1488
01:21:19,320 --> 01:21:22,600
value from reading his work and
especially his deep dives

1489
01:21:22,600 --> 01:21:25,120
lately.
And as to answer your question,

1490
01:21:25,120 --> 01:21:29,400
what is on my mind?
Plenty of things that was, yeah.

1491
01:21:29,440 --> 01:21:31,880
I think we covered the
highlights of 2025, but like you

1492
01:21:31,880 --> 01:21:34,400
kind of alluded to in some of
your predictions, it could be a

1493
01:21:34,400 --> 01:21:37,080
few different things that we're
talking about come this time

1494
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:40,200
next year.
So I'm very, very excited for

1495
01:21:40,200 --> 01:21:41,800
the year it comes, that it
comes.

1496
01:21:42,320 --> 01:21:45,440
I think we're in a great part of
the world, commodities.

1497
01:21:45,440 --> 01:21:48,000
I think it's one of the most
interesting sectors to be in.

1498
01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:50,880
I think it's going to be more
and more volatile as you kind of

1499
01:21:50,880 --> 01:21:53,440
got the a bit of a hint in one
of my predictions.

1500
01:21:53,440 --> 01:21:54,840
Is there anything standing out
to you mate?

1501
01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:57,840
What are you excited for?
Excited for I'll change that

1502
01:21:57,840 --> 01:21:58,960
question.
What am I grateful for?

1503
01:21:58,960 --> 01:22:01,600
I'm grateful that we've got the
wonderful audience that is that

1504
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:04,600
is the money miners whoever you
are listening to this episode or

1505
01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:08,280
watching this episode.
Yeah, I'm very grateful for for

1506
01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:14,240
your consistent consumption of,
of our podcast and and hopefully

1507
01:22:14,240 --> 01:22:16,320
our our e-mail medium as well.
The director special.

1508
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:19,600
It means a great deal to us that
there's a sufficiently large

1509
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:23,160
audience out there that makes
this a doable day job, and we're

1510
01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:25,640
very grateful for that.
Could not have said that better.

1511
01:22:25,640 --> 01:22:28,880
We are tremendously privileged
to be able to do what we do

1512
01:22:29,120 --> 01:22:31,920
right.
And yeah, all that is thanks to

1513
01:22:31,920 --> 01:22:34,400
the money miners out there, so.
Not just the money miners, the

1514
01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:36,920
partners too.
The partners, the fantastic

1515
01:22:37,240 --> 01:22:40,360
partners, Sandvik Ground
Support, we've been there almost

1516
01:22:40,360 --> 01:22:42,760
since day one.
We are very grateful for the

1517
01:22:42,760 --> 01:22:45,680
support you've given us as well
as some fantastic partners who

1518
01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:47,720
have come along the journey for
the past year.

1519
01:22:47,720 --> 01:22:51,520
Focus the platform by Market
Tech, Introlinks, Switch

1520
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:54,360
Technologies and Exceed Capital.
Thanks a bunch to all of you

1521
01:22:54,360 --> 01:22:59,760
guys for supporting us.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

1522
01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:02,480
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

1523
01:23:02,480 --> 01:23:05,000
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

1524
01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:06,480
and you need to read out
disclaimer.