18 Fund Managers tell us their 2025 Big Bets (Part 1)

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I'd say this is best episode of
the year.

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Backed by popular demand, Menu
was a hoot last year.

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Everyone loved getting the
succinct predictions from

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fundies for 2024, which has just
been now I've weighed up whether

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or not we keep them accountable
or not, but I'll let people that

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go back and listen.
I did a scorecard up.

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I feel a bit bad publishing it,
but in general there were some

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wins, some losses, but you know.
Has it been published?

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No.
No, but go back and listen to

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that one if you want to you.
Might be able to pay to get

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access if you.
Really, really want it.

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Nothing a brown paper bag won't
fit.

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Maybe.
Maybe I thought the better way

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would maybe just release who
sort of were the top ones, Yeah.

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And who weren't the lower ones?
Well, some of the fundies

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addressed there misses, you
know, in, in the conversations

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we're about to air, which is,
which is great.

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And we had so many, you know,
we've been so lucky to build

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relationships with a lot of
fundies over the last two years

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that we've had a lot more
contributions this year.

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We've I think we've got like 18
ish or something like that.

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So we got to split him into two
shows.

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And what do you know, you're
Part 1.

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That was that was that was the
initial thing from a lot of them

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last year.
Like now I'm not, I'm not coming

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on because you're fucking hold
it against me next year, which

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is literally what could have
happened.

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Credit to him, we got a bunch
back and this is just action

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packed, you know, 5-10 minute
blocks.

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I was just sitting there soaking
it all in.

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So many different commodities,
companies, thematics touched

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upon.
So I think there's a lot of

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little sort of Nuggets that you
can sort of hear about and then

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go dig into in in greater detail
yourself.

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I loved it.
Just lay down the ground rules,

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the format, voice.
There's few questions. 4

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questions.
Four questions.

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Everybody got the same
questions.

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We kept it pretty tight, not
going to back and forth, just

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letting them lay out their
thesis.

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Otherwise we would have been
here all afternoon.

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But the the basic questions to
start with, what's your most

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high conviction pick could be
thematic, company, commodity,

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anything.
Then we had most consensus

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exactly, followed by the
commodity to perform best over

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2025 and wrapped it up with the
commodity to perform worst.

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Let's get into part.
One Here we go.

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Roll them some.
Of your berries.

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Thanks for making the journey
downstairs to to join us for

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our, you know, 2025 predictions
after some of some of your great

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predictions last year.
Thanks very much, Trevor.

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Yeah.
Have you to come down and have

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another chat?
I.

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Think this is the first time
we've got the Ding, Ding, Ding

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on a fundy because Ali's
actually put money into your

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fund.
So she's she's winding up the

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ETF and it's going to Sam Barry.
So she's.

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On Behalf.
It's a warning to all the other

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fundies out there.
They perform well.

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They get a big swab of capital
kind of hard.

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Very appreciative to have to
have Alex on board and I think

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she's up a little bit from where
she started.

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So hopefully the trend continues
all.

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Righty.
Well, let's let's go into it

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with you.
What is your highest conviction

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prediction for 2025?
Highest conviction and I think

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it's, it's something I've spoken
of before, but it just keeps on

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getting or the pricing keeps on
getting better.

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And that's Metro Mining box, the
only bauxite producer listed in

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the world as far as I'm aware as
a as a pure play.

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I was just flicking through the
emails this morning actually,

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and I see the price in Guinea is
up another 6%, but then shipping

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costs have gone down.
So the free on board cost is up

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like 9% and so the margin
expansion you get with these

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bulk producers is in dollar
million terms is really quite

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spectacular when you start
multiplying that through and

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every bit of commentary I've
read suggests that prices you

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know are going to remain
elevated.

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For at least the first half of
2025.

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And then, you know, we'll see
what happens in the second half.

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But yeah, too cheap.
For where they are at the

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moment.
Beautiful, love it.

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Second question is what is your
most non consensus peak for

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2025?
I reckon I reckon we could see

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the Aussie dollar drop to you
know, definitely A5 handle, but

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maybe even, you know, low 50s
next year, which is just as good

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as commodity prices going up by
the same amount for the

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Australian based producers like
currency has a massive impact on

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on earnings.
So looking at the US, you know,

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if Trump, you know, cuts taxes
and, and, and starts imposing

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tariffs everywhere, you know,
that is going to be

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inflationary.
It could slow down the, the

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trajectory of rate cuts in the
US.

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Conversely, I think you know,
after the RBA minutes in

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December, there's you know,
suggestions that you know, we

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could have a rate cut as early
as February.

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And at some point though the, I
think that we're going to have a

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succession of what rate of quite
quick rate cuts in also rate

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cuts in quick succession because
the Australian economy outside

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of the government sector is
rooted like it is really bad and

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getting worse.
And at some point things will

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break.
We'll get a succession of cuts

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and we could see that currency
down at at at circa $0.50.

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The the best performing
commodity for 2025.

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Outside of bauxite, which I've
mentioned, I think I'm going to

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have to stick with, with gold
again, I, I think the beginning

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or particularly the first half
of, of 2025 is looking quite

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positive.
I think it's, it's all going to

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be about the US and, and what
Trump does when he gets into

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office.
I think tax cuts are going to be

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much easier to him implement
than than cost cuts.

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So that means that the US fiscal
situation will probably

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deteriorate initially and that
would be positive for gold.

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But then after we'll, you know,
we'll see if Elon, you know,

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works his magic and his manages
to cut costs like he did it at

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Twitter without, you know,
sinking the ship.

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So but that's going to be a
second half story.

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So at least initially, I think
gold probably does pretty well.

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Yeah, eager to say that one.
And lastly, what's the worst

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performing commodity for next
year?

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I think maybe you toss up
between oil and iron ore.

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I think I might probably go with
oil.

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It's up 7072 dollars a barrel at
the moment.

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There's a little bit of
geopolitical risk creeping back

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into the price after Syria's
sort of changed hands.

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But you know, you remove that
geopolitical premium from the

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oil price.
And so that's what it would be

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contingent on if things do
settle down in the Middle East.

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There is a lot of spare capacity
within OPEC.

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Plus.
BP came out recently and their

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invested AI said they're going
to continue to spend and invest

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and increase production.
Trump's very supportive of

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increased oil production.
I just don't think, I'm sorry, I

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think that global demand might
struggle to keep up with it and

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you remove that geopolitical
premium for oil and we probably

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down at maybe $60.00 a barrel or
thereabouts.

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So that would be it for the the
worst performer.

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Beautiful, mate.
Well, yeah, wish you a Merry

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Christmas and thanks so much for
your contributions to to the

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party this year.
Yeah.

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You guys, always a pleasure.
Thanks very much.

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Sam Broome from Sprott mate,
first time on money of mine, but

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you're joining us for, you know,
the premier occasion, the

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predictions for 2025.
Thanks for dialling in.

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Yeah, thanks for having me on,
guys.

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I'm a big fan of what you guys
do, so it's great to finally,

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finally make it on.
Brilliant mate, what are your

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what are your your highest
conviction prediction for 2025?

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Highest conviction given, you
know, I've got, I do have some

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restrictions.
I can't give you individual

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companies unfortunately, but
thematically I think one of the

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best, one of my highest
conviction.

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What I tend to do focus on a lot
with with clients is the rare

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breed of companies, you know,
single asset companies with Tier

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1 assets.
You know, we saw this year, you

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know, the likes of, you know,
kilo degrade that just got taken

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up the other day.
You know, even even producing

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guys like sentiment Anglo came
in.

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You know, they're just there are
so few companies with Tier 1

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assets out there.
I mean, I can probably count on

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one hand maybe 2 at a push
companies that have those sort

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of assets that make that
criteria.

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You know, I think if you just
before you could do in 2025 is

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focus on those, those rare breed
of really tier one company

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companies with Tier 1 assets, I
think you'll do pretty well.

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You know, I've made the mistake
as well over the over the years

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of getting a bit queued on
valuations because often times

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these dice do get, you know,
pretty lofty valuations, But you

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know, they're just so rare that
companies end up being, you

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know, paying up from and I think
that trends probably going to

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continue into 2025.
So that's that's my top highest

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conviction thematic for next
year.

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Like it Sam?
Next question is what is your

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most non consensus pick for next
year?

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Non consensus.
This one's.

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Yeah, I was trying to have a
think, think of this one.

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It was took me a little while to
think of something.

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But, you know, I don't know
what, what the sentiment's like

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back over there and Aussie and
down under.

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But every man and his dog over
here seems to be wildly bullish

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on the dollar, the US dollar
under Trump, you know, tariffs.

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But if if you look at what Trump
actually is saying and what he

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wants and you look at some of
his key appointments, you know,

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like Scott Besson, the Treasury
Secretary is going to be taking

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over for Yellen.
You know, they are saying

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anything but, you know, wanting
a strong dollar and obviously

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that feeds through into the
whole commodity complex.

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So I think you might be
surprised in 2025 that the

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dollar actually is much weaker
than people are expecting.

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And yeah, I, I'd be very, I'd be
very surprised if the dollar is

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higher at the end of next year.
So that's, that's probably one

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thing.
The other one, you know, I, I

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flirted with whether this should
be a top pick for me, but I,

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I've been watching the PG space
for a while now, particularly

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that Platinum.
I mean, I don't see anyone that

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really cares on PG ES,
especially not from an

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investment standpoint.
We do.

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00:10:07,560 --> 00:10:08,600
You guys do.
Yeah.

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I have a hunch that poor old
Platinum who said, you know, I

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haven't really had a bull market
in 17 years, may well jump into

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action next year.
So platinum.

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Wicked.
I like it.

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That might even feed feed into
the next question, which is

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what's the best performing
commodity for 2025, Sam?

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Good question.
You know, if history is a guide

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to the best performers, usually
some weird obscure commodity

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that has has a tiny market and
something flicks and it goes

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nuts.
You know, we just saw antimony.

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You know, at the moment it's
kind of the hot thing.

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One that I've gone down a rabbit
hole this year on that's got me

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reasonably excited is a vanadium
commodity that's been left for

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dead.
You know, the last bull market

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00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,400
ended 2018.
Their steel demand is obviously

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still the main, you know, so
it's the steel additive steel

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market sucks right now, no doubt
about that demand picture isn't

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great.
But one thing that's really

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taken me by surprise this year
is the sheer number of

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announcements of these vanadium
redox flow battery complexes

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00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,320
that are in construction right
now.

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You know, this isn't permitting
stage thinking about it, this is

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actually breaking ground now.
Like you can look at Ivanhoe

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Electric's, you know, Robert
Friedland's VRBF group just

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announced a couple of weeks ago
that they're breaking ground on

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a three GW hour facility in
China in consortion with the the

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Lubar group over there.
You know that that alone could

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require, you know, 10 to 15% of
global vanadium supply just for

227
00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,520
one project.
Then you look at all the other

228
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,840
projects that are supposedly
broken ground or very close to

229
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,600
it.
And even if even a fraction of

230
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:58,200
these, you know, are come to
fruition, it kind of looks like

231
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,400
you've got a nice combination of
a really depressed market with

232
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,960
literally almost the entire cost
curve is underwater here.

233
00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,640
You've got guys shutting in like
the Bushfeld, you know, looks

234
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:13,560
like it's on it's way out the
door, you know, so you've got

235
00:12:13,560 --> 00:12:17,560
this ultra depressed market
coming into a potential demand,

236
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,200
you know, an upward demand
shift.

237
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,480
I think it could be quite a
explosive situation for

238
00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:23,960
vanadium.
It could be one of those weird

239
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,240
obscure little commodities that
goes bonkers next year.

240
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,200
So we'll see.
Awesome.

241
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,000
Came to keep an eye on that one.
And lastly, Sam, what's going to

242
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,720
be the worst performing
commodity of 2025?

243
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:36,840
You know, this this year's a
harder one to ask that for.

244
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:38,520
Last year there would have been
a few more candidates.

245
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,360
I think.
You know, I was looking around

246
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,920
on my charts going, Oh, what's
really what's really ripped and

247
00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,880
it's it's been a bit of a tough
that hasn't been an abysmal

248
00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:47,880
year, but it hasn't been.
There's there's no sort of

249
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,240
mainstream commodities that have
other than gold.

250
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:55,040
And as a foreign employee, I
can't give us anything bad about

251
00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,120
a precious metal and I wouldn't
want to bidding its gold either.

252
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,960
But so I'm I'm going to have to
throw antimony out there as

253
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,320
something that's gone.
Absolutely.

254
00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,520
You know, bonkers lately.
You know, I think that with

255
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,120
these things, there's usually a
panic when these, you know,

256
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,000
trade restrictions kick in and
then normality and choose.

257
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,680
So going down a limb, I think
antimony might be in for a bit

258
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,080
bit of gravity next year.
Beautiful, I like your style

259
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:22,440
Sam.
Thanks for making the time and

260
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:24,400
coming on money of mine.
Have a great Christmas.

261
00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,320
No worries.
Yeah, Merry Christmas, guys.

262
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,600
Thanks for having me on.
Rick Squire, thanks for making

263
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,760
the time to start us off.
What is your highest conviction

264
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:37,080
prediction for 2025?
Highest conviction.

265
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,800
I'm going to go out on a limb
with Petrotherm.

266
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,800
It's a little explorer.
They've got a project just out

267
00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,360
of Coober Pedy in South
Australia.

268
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,440
They've found a really
interesting titanium rich

269
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,240
mineral sand deposit and they've
only drilled a couple of holes.

270
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,280
Well, they've only released the
results of a couple of holes so

271
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,880
far into it, but it's, it's
unusually high grade.

272
00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,640
It's quite thick, reasonably
close to the surface.

273
00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:06,600
It's got, you know, some really,
really exciting sort of

274
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,320
characteristics.
So early days, but you guys seem

275
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,280
to to to love those early more
speculative opportunities.

276
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,440
So just sort of bring that to
the, the intention of the

277
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,080
listeners.
So PTR is a thing and just for

278
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,720
Full disclosure, we're
substantial and that sort of.

279
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,640
Yeah, I.
Did see that the other day.

280
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,960
Yeah, No, it's a bog that we
haven't talked about on the show

281
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,560
yet.
But yeah, keen to learn more

282
00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,320
about that one over time.
And what about your most non

283
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,400
consensus view of for 2025,
Rick?

284
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:40,760
Yeah, well, last year I made a
prediction of my top pick was

285
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,320
Meteor Oric and that that hasn't
been good.

286
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,320
But there's actually, you know,
nothing wrong with the, the,

287
00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,120
the, the, the stock, but in
terms of the non consensus view

288
00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:55,000
is actually a rebound in the the
rare earth price that rare

289
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,400
earths typically they, they,
they lead the decline of

290
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:03,040
commodities into a recession and
then they also will lead the

291
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:04,920
rebound that comes out the other
side.

292
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:10,240
So the rare earths, the NDPR
price has been falling since,

293
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,160
since early 2021.
So it's actually been, you know,

294
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,400
three years in decline.
When you look at lithium, it's

295
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,360
only been sort of 18 months to
or, or or so of, of decline.

296
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,720
It's, you know, they've both
been quite sharp and, and, and

297
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:28,600
and and painful, But I, I reckon
it's a non consensus view that

298
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:31,240
it, it, it will come out next
year.

299
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,880
So it's always difficult to
predict these things.

300
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,400
Can there be external factors?
But you know, a lot of supplies

301
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,240
come out, really good
opportunity for to rebound.

302
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,080
And there might be a bit of
overlap on this one, Rick, but

303
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,400
what are you thinking for the
best performing commodity for

304
00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:49,280
next year?
Yeah.

305
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,920
Well, I like that lithium, but
just as something different, I'm

306
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,640
sorry rarest, but I think
lithium would be one that'll

307
00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,120
lift.
But sort of in two reasons.

308
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,840
Obviously it's at Lowe's, no one
likes it.

309
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,840
It's a very much unloved
commodity.

310
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,240
But but what we're seeing is a
lot of supply coming out this

311
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,120
year, but it actually hasn't.
It's actually closures that

312
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,320
we're seeing this year, but the
supply hasn't come out.

313
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:19,600
So these, these operations that
have closed up in 2024, they're,

314
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,720
they're still shipping product
even now in many cases.

315
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:27,160
And it's in 2025 that we'll
actually see the the real

316
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,480
curtailment in supply into the
market.

317
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,080
And I think that's the thing
that will, will, will lift

318
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,240
particularly in the spodumene
space will, will, will lift the

319
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,400
market.
Now, how strongly it lifts, is

320
00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,560
that that always the difficult
thing to to predict?

321
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,200
But I think that's a commodity
that could certainly lift off

322
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:48,320
the ground even if the demand,
say, stays the same.

323
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:52,120
It's just that curtailment and
supply will actually give it a

324
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,160
lift off the ground.
Wicked.

325
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:59,360
And how about the worst
performing commodity, Rick?

326
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,280
That's a tough one.
I'm an optimist.

327
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:05,680
So I think they're all gonna go
up.

328
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:11,599
But but tough ones, I think
nickel is the one that will stay

329
00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:16,400
on the floor.
So I just don't see the

330
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,520
fundamentals for that look
really tough.

331
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,920
You know, Indonesia is producing
so much, it's at such a cheap

332
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,400
price to its peers that, you
know, it's very difficult for

333
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,600
producers to, to, to look past
that.

334
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,320
And because it's used as a by
product with, you know, as an

335
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,560
alloy in, in steel production.
And, and, you know, it's just a

336
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:38,480
small part of the, you know, the
battery use that, you know, it,

337
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,040
you know, the ESG story that
gets wrapped around.

338
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,480
And I, I just don't see that as
being material when you look at

339
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,120
the, you know, the, the overall
componentry of a, a battery or

340
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:52,080
the overall component of a, of
steel that where you get the,

341
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,480
the nickel from, I don't think
it matters so much to, to, to,

342
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,840
to those purchasing the product.
So, so I think you know, nickel

343
00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,440
will stay on the floor
unfortunately unless there's

344
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,520
some unforeseen factor that
really changed the changes the

345
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,400
price.
Fantastic, look forward to

346
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,480
seeing how those pics go over
2025.

347
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:19,800
Big prediction for 2025 Grounded
are going to build the Hemi camp

348
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,000
for to grade Northern Star.
You reckon that's coming in

349
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,960
2025?
They're gonna start.

350
00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:28,560
They'll get the contract, right?
Yeah, that is my big prediction

351
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,200
for Grounded.
It'd be the first contract I

352
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,880
would sign if I was, you know,
managing the project, you know,

353
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:34,960
Northern Star and hand me up
there.

354
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,600
Yeah, Dave, risks.
It I mean, look after you, look

355
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:38,880
after you people do the right
thing.

356
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,880
My prediction is that the
grounded brand becomes

357
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,840
synonymous with Louis Vuitton.
Yeah, it's that it's that good

358
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,440
of a brand.
Yeah, yeah, but probably not

359
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,160
with the price tag.
No, no, no.

360
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:52,200
It's just, you know, you're
getting quality, you know it's

361
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,280
going to last.
You know that they are just.

362
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:59,920
It's going to make you happy.
It's just made all those G spots

363
00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:01,960
around the state are going to
make you very happy.

364
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,280
What about you JD?
What do you think the big

365
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:12,360
prediction for Grounded is 2025?
The big prediction for Grounded

366
00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:16,920
I.
Think JD, you, you might you,

367
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,120
you think off your feet.
This is this is your photo.

368
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,920
I've got a prediction, Maddie.
Because JD is shit I've got.

369
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:34,160
A prediction Maddie grounded
will no longer be grounded.

370
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,040
They'll be taken off.
Yeah.

371
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:36,880
Is that right?
Yeah.

372
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:43,720
They'll be in flight.
You got anything yet, JD?

373
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,040
No.
I'm still thinking mate, I'm

374
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,360
working on it.
What is potentially a big

375
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,200
project for Grounded this year?
Think outside the box.

376
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,240
Besides, so we've got Hemi,
where else do you want to see a

377
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,280
grounded camp?
Well, I want to see them

378
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,120
everywhere.
I want to see that the mining

379
00:20:00,120 --> 00:20:01,440
industry get looked after,
Maddie.

380
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,080
So whatever you've got on on
your mine side, if it's not

381
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,080
grounded, I've got one, get rid
of it.

382
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:07,920
I've got one.
This makes sense.

383
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:13,240
Grounded is going to refurbish
the Telfa camp because that I've

384
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,240
been there that's pretty old.
If there's a future for

385
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:22,000
Greatland Gold up at Telfa, that
camp needs to be refurbished.

386
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,600
700 man camp.
Turn that into a grounded camp.

387
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,200
That's a great one.
Yeah, Sean, die.

388
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,600
Give Paul Natalie a call.
Give me a Christmas present.

389
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:36,280
And like, you know, Telfa is,
it's pretty much one of the

390
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,120
clock because it's so far north.
It's one of the closest mines in

391
00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:43,600
Australia to Sicily by distance.
Yeah, Telfa's closer to Sicily

392
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,880
than Perth is.
Nowhere to fly.

393
00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:48,440
Yeah, that's all we need to
know.

394
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:53,880
Go grounded.
Go grounded, Rusty mate, we're

395
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,280
excited.
You can join us.

396
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,680
Let's let's start this
conversation with your highest

397
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,240
conviction pick for 2025.
Sure.

398
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,760
Thank you for having me boys
always love connecting as you

399
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,240
know.
Highest conviction pick.

400
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,440
I think you guys said this could
be a thematic, a stock or

401
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,960
otherwise.
I've got one mate.

402
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,880
My prediction is you'll get even
more Rogue in your dress wear in

403
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:23,360
2025.
That'd be pretty, pretty maybe,

404
00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:34,880
maybe some actual dresses.
So, so I have gone with a, a

405
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,200
commodity actually.
And I think you guys can

406
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,800
probably guess where I'm going
to, where I'm going to land.

407
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:46,640
But I've actually picked PGMS
and specifically Palladium as as

408
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:51,160
our highest conviction
prediction for 2025 there.

409
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,960
I will asterisk that with there
is a possibility that completely

410
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:59,400
wrong because the timing is the
hardest thing to to point to

411
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,400
with with commodity markets and
when they they turn.

412
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,160
But I would highlight that, you
know, it trades deeply into the

413
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,520
cost curve consensus demand
forecasts, you know, they're

414
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:16,920
underestimating the uptake of
PHEV&REEV autos, both of which

415
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,560
require catalytic converters.
And you got consensus supply

416
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:24,360
numbers.
I, I think overestimating the

417
00:22:24,360 --> 00:22:27,280
quantum of supply that's coming
from recycling, you got little

418
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,880
to no incentive at spot
commodity prices as well as a

419
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,240
higher cost of capital, so
higher interest rates, which

420
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,160
which never went well for, you
know, recycling businesses.

421
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,800
So, you know, on top of that
stockpiles largely eroded

422
00:22:41,120 --> 00:22:45,080
positioning from financial
participants is is pretty,

423
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:52,200
pretty set to the bearish side.
So yeah, yeah, a whole range of

424
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,240
things that are unwind at some
point that will that will result

425
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,280
in a higher lad in price in our
view.

426
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,360
And even if I'm wrong on a whole
bunch of them, it's just it's

427
00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:03,920
fundamentally unsustainable into
the, you know, the degree to

428
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,040
which it trades into the cost
curve at the moment.

429
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,280
So yeah, we like that.
We like physical metal.

430
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,920
You can do that with PLPALL on
the New York Stock Exchange and

431
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:19,640
combine that with a mix of sort
of producers and explorers for a

432
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:24,040
bit of bit of leverage.
But yeah, that's how class

433
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:29,160
conviction prediction for 2025
hours that we get a breakout and

434
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,400
Palladium.
Love the love the thinking

435
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,920
Rusty.
What about non consensus

436
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:40,240
prediction?
Probably the same one yeah.

437
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,640
Otherwise I'll, I'll go with a
gratuitous plug for for one of

438
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,760
our nearest and dearest holdings
and and that is that Mali

439
00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:52,080
surprises to the upside.
How about that for non consensus

440
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,840
because I reckon everyone's just
got that as a complete an

441
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,680
investable write off.
I, I think that obviously it

442
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,360
hasn't been great to, to sort of
see what's happened to the

443
00:24:03,360 --> 00:24:06,520
stocks and, and, and, and the
people involved with the issues

444
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,040
there this year.
But equally, you know, I do

445
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,280
think it's a poorly reported and
understood landscape there are,

446
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,800
you know, I think it's well
worth asking the question of a

447
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:21,200
few of those companies that are
producing their, you know, did

448
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:28,520
you declare the correct status
on your production?

449
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,840
You need to declare commercial
production or did you not for

450
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,560
five years there?
There is a bunch of things that

451
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:38,240
have gone on in country I think
that have recipitated where

452
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,800
where Mali's landed.
And so I think some of the

453
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,240
reporting's perhaps been a bit 1
sided in that regard.

454
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,680
I'm not advocating for detaining
people on, you know, commercial

455
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,000
disputes, but it is a sort of
reality of the landscape there.

456
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,520
And, and as I said, I do think
it's very poorly understood that

457
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,480
that there was some
justification from government

458
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,520
for that.
So I my non consensus prediction

459
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:07,240
is Smiley can turn the corner
and Tabani will have a big RIP

460
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:13,720
on the back of it taken out or,
or they build something that's

461
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,160
kind of spew a lot of California
cash, free cash flow.

462
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:23,120
So yeah, any more non consensus?
Truly contrarian, Rusty.

463
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,320
How about a best performing
commodity?

464
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,400
Perhaps you know, putting PG as
to aside for a for the moment.

465
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:37,320
Yeah.
For Park Palladium then this is

466
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:42,440
a tough one because you know we
are pretty, pretty cautious to

467
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,600
pessimistic for the first half
next year for the commodity

468
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,640
price outlook more broadly.
And that's just a function of

469
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,680
sort of a trade, trade posturing
that we expect into the first

470
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,040
half.
And so I do think, you know, you

471
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,320
couple that with some softer
data out of China and, and maybe

472
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,720
some policy disappointments that
we're already seeing filtered

473
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,000
through then.
And maybe it is a tricky first

474
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,360
six months more constructive
thereafter, because we don't

475
00:26:08,360 --> 00:26:11,920
think there's a, a sensible deal
to be done with the US and

476
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:17,480
China, but can't have Palladium.
And I'll, I'll take gold and,

477
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,480
and tin they're, they're
probably our, our two highest

478
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,760
conviction picks now.
I think gold's going up, you

479
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:29,600
know, 40 or 50% probably not.
But I think everything else, I

480
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,560
think, I think the broader space
is, is quite exposed to a bit of

481
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,800
a downdraft.
And, and, and, and I think gold

482
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,320
will, will hold its ground or
better because I, I do think

483
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,600
we're in a, in a fascinating
paradigm for, for gold and its

484
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,120
role in, in you know, as a
global currency.

485
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:54,080
So, yeah, high conviction gold
and, and high conviction tins.

486
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,040
I think you guys have covered
that well that that space.

487
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaking to my heart, Rusty,
what about what about the, you

488
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,400
know, yeah, the most
trepidatious view you have on a

489
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:05,760
specific commodity.
What?

490
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,760
What?
What's going to go down the

491
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:12,040
most?
I reckon that easy money bet

492
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,920
here would be aluminium just
because it's run so hard.

493
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,520
So given that you get to walk
through the whole of next year

494
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,960
and then get to this point and
and have a conversation again,

495
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,440
then then maybe it's but I don't
say that with any real, you

496
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,200
know, supply demand analysis,
just that we're we're we're

497
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,680
willing to I think we're willing
to incentive pricing here.

498
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,080
And would you go commodity
markets have a have a habit of?

499
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,520
Alumina or box bulk side or
you'd go right up.

500
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,520
There.
Oh, OK, Great question.

501
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,560
Probably up the curve, the bulk
side side of things looks more

502
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:45,800
constrained.
Yeah.

503
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,120
And then I just get lost in the
fucking complexity of Lumina

504
00:27:49,120 --> 00:27:52,160
versus aluminium.
You guys probably may smile at

505
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,200
me being able to pull that
apart.

506
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,480
Yeah, I'll just stick at the end
yeah at the end of that that

507
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,480
process.
But yeah, I think that would

508
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,200
probably be the the easy.
But otherwise I do think iron

509
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:10,040
ore tests cost curves is, you
know it'll be a fair, fair thing

510
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,560
to see next year, which is
easily see iron ore about 20%

511
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:17,680
from here.
And, and I know we talked last

512
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,440
year around like I think our,
our contrarian pick was uranium

513
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,600
equities to to come off and, and
I think, I think we have seen

514
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,160
that this year.
I, I think next year could be

515
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,400
interest like it's going to be
really fascinating for uranium.

516
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:34,040
And like we're we still own some
physical and, and and some

517
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:38,880
Gazeta prom, but safe sets
pretty under review.

518
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,040
We've sold all our next Gen
that's been really good.

519
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:47,520
I do wonder, you know, commodity
markets, equity markets are very

520
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,720
good at pricing in future
expectations.

521
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:56,120
Next Gen I think does come on
stream and at some point, you

522
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,080
know, market participants start
looking at that and start

523
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,280
thinking about that and there's
a lot of product to hit the

524
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:06,600
market.
So you know, so does that, does

525
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,240
that start changing habits?
And, you know, if there's any

526
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,320
sort of material sitting in
stockpiles we don't know about

527
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,440
in Russia or wherever, you know,
does it start to bring some of

528
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,960
that material to the spot market
ahead of next Gen?

529
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,960
Those sorts of things just
rattle around in my head.

530
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,960
So yeah, I wonder.
Uranium's a really interesting

531
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,000
one for next year.
Heaps for us to to think about

532
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,280
there Rusty, thanks for making
the time, it's been awesome to

533
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,320
chat again.
Who are he's hoping you're going

534
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,440
to pull me apart?
I wanted some last second.

535
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,720
We've got to keep this succinct
for yeah, all of the all of the

536
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,720
different ones, but.
I can go could chat for chat for

537
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,600
hours mate on on those ones.
Very keen to to get you on for a

538
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,520
for a long form chat again.
When the when the time's right

539
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,760
mate, but yeah.
Sounds good, boys.

540
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,760
Stands right.
Thanks very much.

541
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,840
Anthony Kavanaugh from.
Chest Asset Management, thank

542
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:01,280
you so much for joining us
again, mate.

543
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:02,640
How are you feeling about your
picks last year?

544
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,200
Oh, as I was saying, I I
actually got a Where's Wally

545
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,160
outfit for the company KK I was
tempted to come bring it on.

546
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,320
So this is the thing like you
make these predictions in the in

547
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,120
the view of jest.
Hopefully no one takes them too

548
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,680
seriously because it is a bit of
fun.

549
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:25,000
And the leaking one, I was like
about 2000 bucks a tonne that.

550
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,360
Yeah.
I should be wearing my wears

551
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,800
while the outfit for that one.
But like Henry, how about I

552
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:29,920
think you get the chocolates for
that.

553
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,600
That that was of the of the
commodities picked for best

554
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,480
performing, that actually was
the best performing one.

555
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:36,440
Yeah, I did the numbers.
Yeah.

556
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:37,720
That was that was, that was a
good pick, right?

557
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,800
That was a good.
One and the oil and gas one or

558
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,160
it looks like I don't know what
I'm talking about.

559
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,640
But as I think I said to you the
other day, there was a point

560
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:52,200
last or this year, sorry, where
I was Privy to two different

561
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,960
discussions that people were
suggesting to me that there was

562
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,040
three way merger discussions
between three of those four

563
00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:59,760
parties.
And I was thinking I was going

564
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,160
to look like an absolute genius
rather than wait while at this

565
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,240
point.
So I'll just say it.

566
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,400
It could have looked really,
really smart.

567
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,240
So that that's all.
Righty.

568
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,960
Well, let's let's look forward
now to 2025.

569
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,120
What's your highest conviction?
Pick Kev for the coming year.

570
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,080
And this again, it's going to
make me look like I watch too

571
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,400
much money in mines.
And I don't want that people to

572
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,320
think that even though I love
the show, I'm very focused on

573
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,200
investing, not just watching
your show.

574
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,920
But I would say I think it's a
bit of a circular reference and

575
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,600
it is small cap copper and I had
a little bit of zinc in there as

576
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:38,560
well.
The thesis being that there's so

577
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:39,960
a lot of activity in the copper
space.

578
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,120
Obviously the Winnow transaction
that that you alluded to Trav

579
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,120
that I think I was talking about
all that on $2 billion

580
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,720
Australian.
So it's a pretty good price

581
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,600
marker.
I think the Rex Minerals deal

582
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,160
earlier on in the year as well
was pretty material.

583
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,480
I think it just opened up the
door for some of those smaller

584
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:01,240
cap copper names and assets that
possibly slightly off the radar,

585
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,960
but I think that they're going
to see some activity in in 2025.

586
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,080
It wasn't just those two deals
though.

587
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,640
Everyone we spoke, so my
colleague Rob and I were in

588
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,600
first about two weeks ago and
literally every base metal

589
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,240
company we spoke to and even
some of the golds, we're all on

590
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,880
the hunt to copper assets.
Like everyone wants copper asset

591
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,400
at the moment.
So I think we should see some

592
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,440
activity 3.5 in that space.
Now.

593
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,000
Always like to give a company
name attached to it.

594
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,640
There's one that I can't talk
about right now, but for reasons

595
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,920
that I'll hopefully provide to
you in 2025.

596
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,880
But there is one that I that I
will mention that's developed

597
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,680
now develop I've I've spoken
about plenty of times.

598
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,480
It's had a bit of a challenge
2024 and that's despite Woodlog

599
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,840
getting closer and closer
production.

600
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,640
It's kind of defied that the
sound curve to a degree because

601
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,200
when a project is supposed to be
in 12 months of mixing

602
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,080
production, it's supposed to
have a really strong period of

603
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,440
our performance and rotate on
this cool return in the

604
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:51,640
developer a couple of years
back.

605
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,600
So it's defined the sound curve.
I think common prices should

606
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,920
have a good period of AI think
TCRC's have probably been

607
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,760
underestimated or overestimated
depending on how you think about

608
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,040
it.
Last year for zinc, they were

609
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,480
you know, as high as 200 bucks a
tonne in some contracts.

610
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,840
I think they're going as low as
50 bucks a tonne in some

611
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,400
contracts.
That's pretty material to cash

612
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,920
flow to these businesses.
I think Woodlawn itself, like

613
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,080
the the management team has
spent hours and hours, countless

614
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,560
time ensuring this project ramps
up.

615
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,760
And you never want to say that
produce got to ramp up with any

616
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,600
risk because I think you guys
have said it before, there's no

617
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,760
upside surprises in mining, only
downside surprise.

618
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,480
But I think, but I've never been
a bit on a project starting out

619
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,760
without many issues.
I think it might be wood lined

620
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,280
in this instance.
And so I think that develop

621
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,640
could have a a good childhood
and hopefully I'll talk about a

622
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,960
second cop about the early into
the new year with you guys.

623
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,320
We're keen to keen to talk about
that one in the new year.

624
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,800
Cav, what about?
What about your most non

625
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:48,400
consensus call for 2025?
It'll be somewhat non consensus,

626
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,840
but it won't surprise anyone
that I'll say mineral resources

627
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,840
here.
So that's it's, it's a name that

628
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,840
we've been associated with.
I had a chat with an analyst

629
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,280
yesterday was telling me they
think it's worth 38 bucks odd

630
00:33:58,280 --> 00:33:59,480
say.
I think it's still worth double

631
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,280
that whether Chris Ellison is at
the helm or not.

632
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,040
I think the accents are worth a
lot more than when they're

633
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:08,960
trading, you know, and hopefully
sometime in next year.

634
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,000
We're we're we're seeing less
and less of Chris Ellison and

635
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:16,360
the mid res team in the papers,
the wrong reasons on those FFGS

636
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,920
kind of taken a bit of a bit of
the last couple of days and

637
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:23,000
maybe research targets already.
But yeah, I'd say it means over

638
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:27,360
50 bucks by the next year.
And whether it's the chairman

639
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,639
being replaced earlier than
people expected or just some

640
00:34:30,639 --> 00:34:33,920
finality of whether Chris stays
or goes by the next year, I

641
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,840
think we can see him in the 50
bucks, which is 35%.

642
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:38,880
Yeah, that's fine.
We're definitely going to keep

643
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:40,639
watching, mate.
How about the best performing

644
00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:44,440
commodity for next year?
Look, I could double down.

645
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,760
Here we are because I think I
said last year, because I

646
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,440
already watched it, that I think
it's got 200% upside and it's

647
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:53,239
only up 50% from that point.
But I do like to bring something

648
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:54,520
fresh.
So let's say Henry Hub again,

649
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,120
but let's also say Coke and
Cole.

650
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,200
I think that Coke and Cole at
200 bucks a tonne is a lot lower

651
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,160
than where I'd expect it to be
by the next year.

652
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,240
I'd say, you know, 250 to 260 at
the starting point.

653
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,040
I think that part of the reason
for that is India kind of had a

654
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:10,760
prolonged monsoon season this
year.

655
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,400
So kind of throughout some of
the trade dynamics you normally

656
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,920
see with Coke and Cole for an
added even funkier perspective

657
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,160
on coal, I would say that the
coal city between thermal and

658
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:25,840
met, IE you've kind of PCI's and
your your semi softs, I think

659
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,400
they could even have a better
time than hard coal.

660
00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:31,880
Yeah, for the fact that maybe if
we see a ceasefire in Ukraine

661
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,640
that some of the discounts start
online a bit because Russia's no

662
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,760
longer selling cheap coal to
China and to India.

663
00:35:38,240 --> 00:35:41,040
So I think Coke and coal's a
pretty good bet.

664
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,560
And White Haven or Standby, I
prefer White Haven, but it both

665
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,520
had to say a bit of upside in in
2025.

666
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,280
I like it mate.
And what about the worst

667
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,560
performing commodity?
I think I'm cheating a bit by

668
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,880
saying this, but like folks on
the Lumina, so let's let's say

669
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,160
with the Lumina, I mean it
spiked recently the year end.

670
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,560
So I'm pretty to say that it it
won't be kind of close to 700 by

671
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,240
the end of the year.
And I know it's somewhat

672
00:36:04,240 --> 00:36:06,640
contentious, but I think by the
end of the next year, it could

673
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,880
be close to 500.
So what I am saying about

674
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,440
delivery is maybe there's 30%
downside from here in a limit

675
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,680
process, but consensus is still
way too low.

676
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,960
Like so perversely, I'm saying a
limit would be the worst before,

677
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,840
but it performed a lot better
than what consensus actually

678
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,120
has.
And also a bit of Bloomberg

679
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,240
before actually Bloomberg is
literally suggesting that

680
00:36:25,720 --> 00:36:28,680
consensus a limit price for Q1
next year is below 400 bucks a

681
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,560
tonne, which is just absurd.
So despite saying that, I think

682
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,480
alone that could be the worst
performing point in the bulk

683
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,160
site next year.
I still think there's a trade in

684
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,560
our pole or in South too, in
that like commodity prices stay

685
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,560
a lot higher than consensus
expects and they generate so

686
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,960
much more free cash flow in 2025
than Martin expects.

687
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,960
So there's there's what for you?
Fantastic.

688
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,280
Love it, Kev.
Yeah, I appreciate the the calls

689
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,520
and yeah, wish you a Merry
Christmas and look forward to

690
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,760
doing this again next year.
Same to you guys.

691
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,320
So we'll see fun and we really
appreciate being on the show, so

692
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,640
let's do it.
Big 2025 prediction for Samvic

693
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:08,680
ground support is that there are
going to be less MDX bolts being

694
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:13,040
used because resin balding is
about to take off because of the

695
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,800
styrene free resin that doesn't
smell gooey bolts are coming

696
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,120
back.
I think that's going to be a big

697
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,240
thing for the same big ground
support division.

698
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:23,880
That's a big prediction.
You say happier underground

699
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,600
miners, Maddie, No, I reckon.
Is it, I reckon that's, I reckon

700
00:37:27,720 --> 00:37:31,520
underground that's still rather
jam and MDX in with the other

701
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,360
than a resin bolt.
But hey, if the cost is there

702
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,560
and the health and safety is
improved of underground mining

703
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,000
because of Derek Hurd's
initiative, you can't put a

704
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,640
price on health and safety.
Speaking of the man, Derek Hurd,

705
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:47,800
check out this photo.
Have a look at him.

706
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,560
Isn't he in the spirit of
Christmas?

707
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:54,080
Festive spirit.
Go Derek Hurd and by Samvic, as

708
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,160
I've said, you better be looking
after Derek Hurd now that he's

709
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,320
got a Samvic badge on because we
love him dearly.

710
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,560
We just hope he's getting the
treatment he deserves because

711
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,880
he's the heart and soul now of
Samvic Grant Support Division.

712
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,560
Derek Hurd, thank you having us
in your family.

713
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,440
Give Derek a call.
Get your order in.

714
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,960
Get some Sam for grant support
in your underground family.

715
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,440
Make it for Christmas. 2025.
Mate, put some resin on your

716
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,760
Christmas tree.
Yeah, you wouldn't even know

717
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,440
it's there because it doesn't
stink, but you will say it.

718
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,880
You can't really miss it, no.
That's actually not a bad idea.

719
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,520
Just wrap the resin like, yeah,
that's actually I'm going to do

720
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,840
that.
Yeah, Derek has probably already

721
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,040
done it for Christmas.
Kids love it.

722
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,240
Go save it.
Thank you very much for your

723
00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:42,760
support this year.
Jodie, thanks for making the

724
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:44,480
time.
Let's start this one off with

725
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,280
your highest conviction pick for
2025 Our.

726
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,200
Highest Conviction pick is a
stock we've liked for a

727
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,480
considerable period of time and
that's Vice on Asset management.

728
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,760
It's a diversified water
services business based out of

729
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,240
WA.
They've got a range of water

730
00:39:01,240 --> 00:39:06,640
businesses from engineering
consulting, they deep water a

731
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,840
lot of significant iron ore
deposits that are under the

732
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,040
water table in WA.
But the the business we're most

733
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,440
excited about in calendar year
25 that we think could lead to a

734
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,080
rewrite is their vice on asset
management business.

735
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:20,520
Huge.
I'll have to give it a Ding,

736
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,600
Ding, Ding.
I'm a I'm a shareholder of of

737
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,360
that one and.
Mate, what about your most non

738
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,800
consensus pick Judy?
Our most non consensus view is,

739
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,360
is probably around US interest
rates.

740
00:39:33,720 --> 00:39:37,680
Consensus has them to be under 3
1/2 percent by the end of

741
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:43,800
calendar year 2025 from a bit
over 4 1/2% now and we'll take

742
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,160
the unders on that.
We think think the US economy is

743
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,760
going to be really strong.
We think tax cuts will be

744
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:55,160
implemented soon after Trump's
inauguration and that coupled

745
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,960
with deregulation and increased
investment into the US largely

746
00:39:59,960 --> 00:40:02,920
around the threat of tariffs.
We don't think tariffs will be

747
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,520
as scary as as the threat of
tariffs.

748
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,960
You know, we think tariffs would
slow the economy and, and create

749
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,920
a, a type of inflation, if you
like, from one of cost

750
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,160
increases.
But we think the US economy is

751
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:19,600
going to going to RIP.
We, we think Trump wants a

752
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:24,440
roaring 20s type economy and we
think, you know, there's a fair

753
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,240
chance he might get it.
So we'll take the unders on

754
00:40:26,240 --> 00:40:30,040
interest rate cuts in the US.
For 2025.

755
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,720
Beautiful and moving to the
commodity end of the world,

756
00:40:33,720 --> 00:40:36,120
what's going to be the best
performing commodity over the

757
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,440
next year?
Look, it's already done really

758
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,960
well and you guys be far better
placed than me to to answer this

759
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,800
question.
But I still like uranium.

760
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,920
I still think there's some
catalysts that can that can

761
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,040
create, you know, a bullish
market for uranium.

762
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:57,120
It's done a bit of work here,
but if you can get, you know,

763
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:02,320
some changes around, you know,
processing of uranium and, and

764
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,040
and get those changes coming in
the new year, we still think

765
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,600
that's a huge long term macro
trend that's going to be with us

766
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,560
for the next 5 to 10 years.
Like it mate.

767
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,200
And what about the the the flip
side of that?

768
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,600
The worst performing?
We're not ultra bearish on it,

769
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,600
but but we we don't have any
exposure iron ore, we don't

770
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,080
desire any.
We think, you know, we think the

771
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:28,040
Chinese are going to, to look to
stimulate their economy, but we,

772
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,680
we, we think that that stimulus
will be really designed about

773
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:36,320
increasing consumer spending.
And so we don't think they're

774
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,720
going to continue to build out
apartments at, at the rate they

775
00:41:38,720 --> 00:41:41,720
have.
And whilst there are there other

776
00:41:41,720 --> 00:41:45,400
areas in the world that that
will be increasing iron or

777
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,880
demand, we don't think that's
going to make up for for the

778
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,520
change in the Chinese economy.
I'll tack on one more quickly at

779
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:52,440
the end there.
What?

780
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,600
What do you reckon that means
for the Aussie dollar over the

781
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:59,400
coming year?
We think the Aussie dollar,

782
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,640
yeah, we don't think it's going
to strengthen considerably.

783
00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:06,880
And that's probably the change,
is the main change we've had

784
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,960
post Trump's election win.
Post Trump's election win, we

785
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,080
thought his deficit spending was
going to be bigger than

786
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,400
Carmella's, and we thought the
US dollar was going to soften.

787
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:19,320
But we just think there's so
much excitement around

788
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:23,080
deregulation, tax cuts, and we
think the US is essentially

789
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,800
going to suck in a lot of
capital driving their dollar up.

790
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,800
And so that coupled with
potential China weakness, we

791
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,520
think the Aussie dollar is going
to find it hard to strengthen

792
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,440
considerably from here.
Beautiful.

793
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,200
Great to hear your predictions.
And we, yeah, look forward to

794
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:40,360
seeing how they go over the next
year.

795
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,120
Thanks, Jody.
Thanks, James.

796
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,360
Good luck.
Dave Franklin, thank you for

797
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:46,880
joining us.
We'll just get a quick Ding,

798
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:52,400
Ding, Ding out the way ours our
alley JC is a unit holder in in

799
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,240
your funds.
So let's start this conversation

800
00:42:55,240 --> 00:42:59,120
off Dave with your highest
conviction pick for 2025.

801
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,320
Yeah.
Look, our highest conviction is

802
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,000
we think that lithium prices
have bottomed.

803
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:10,320
So look at current spot domain
prices around $800 a tonne.

804
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:12,760
Really no one's making any
serious money.

805
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:17,440
We think that there's no
incentive to bring on new, new,

806
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,960
new projects and, and the majors
min raise and, and Pilbara have

807
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,920
announced, you know, cutbacks in
production.

808
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,480
So I think they're all signals
that we're bouncing along the

809
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,960
bottom.
But I think as we move into into

810
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,840
next year, we'll see some
opportunities in the lithium

811
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,400
equity space.
Nice Dave, what about most non

812
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,480
consensus view for for 25?
Yeah.

813
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:46,000
Look, non consensus we're going
for recovery in rare earths

814
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:52,160
prices in in in 2025.
The sector's been been hammered,

815
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,640
has been a very poor performer
over the last year.

816
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:58,080
It's a difficult sector in that
it's dominated by China on both

817
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,240
the production and processing
side.

818
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,960
But we just think of these
levels it's likely to bounce

819
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,960
over 2025.
We're particularly interested in

820
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:13,800
in the Brazilian ionic clays.
We think that's a a possible low

821
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,240
cost source of production going
forward.

822
00:44:16,240 --> 00:44:19,200
So looking at companies like
Meteoric, but I think is that

823
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:23,200
it's a bounce in rare earths is
is what we see next year.

824
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,000
Fantastic.
And maybe if we put rare earths

825
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,800
aside for the moment, Dave, have
you got another best performing

826
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:34,400
commodity for the coming year?
Look, we do.

827
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:38,760
So look, we're tossing up
between copper and uranium, but

828
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,560
you also can't rule out gold.
But we, we, we've narrowed it

829
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,440
down.
And I think copper, look, the,

830
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,200
the risk is what happens with,
with Trump and China stimulus.

831
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:50,720
And it kind of could go either
way.

832
00:44:50,720 --> 00:44:54,280
But in general, we see growing
global growth next year

833
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:58,520
supporting copper on the on the
demand side, you've got the

834
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,440
electrification sort of
tailwinds, which will continue

835
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,520
and continue to grow.
And on the supply side, you got

836
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,720
40% of copper coming out of
Chile and Peru.

837
00:45:06,720 --> 00:45:08,720
So always chances of supply
disruption.

838
00:45:08,720 --> 00:45:13,120
So copper is the one for us.
And on the the flip side, Dave,

839
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,360
what's what have you got the
most, you know, bearish outlook

840
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,400
from a commodity front?
Yeah, the worst performing look,

841
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,640
we, we generally think the
commodities are going to bounce

842
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,480
a bit next year.
The one that we think looks

843
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,080
pretty bad is, is cobalt.
You know, going back a couple of

844
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,600
years, it was the flavour of the
month with the energy

845
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,760
transition.
What we're seeing now is just a

846
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,360
massive increase in supply
coming out of the DRC in

847
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:40,800
Indonesia and and on the battery
side, a shift to LFP batteries

848
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,520
building market share, which
doesn't help their demand

849
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,880
profile.
So Cobalt, you don't need it.

850
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,440
Fantastic, short and sharp,
Dave, thanks again for making

851
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:50,840
the time.
And yeah, we're looking forward

852
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,600
to seeing how those predictions
go in the coming year.

853
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:55,680
Great.
Thanks, JD.

854
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,480
Thanks Trev and all the best for
for next year.

855
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,760
Will, thanks for making the time
and coming on money of mine

856
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,680
again.
I am excited to hear your

857
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,960
highest conviction pick for
2025.

858
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:08,400
Yeah, thanks for having me,
guys.

859
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:13,520
For us it's junior gold.
So we've seen a bit of momentum

860
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:16,160
in that trade the last three,
six months, which has been

861
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:17,880
great.
And then a few absolute, you

862
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:19,800
know, rippers over a longer
period of time.

863
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:24,840
But we still think that it just
has not kept up with the greater

864
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,240
gold price environment as well
as a large caps where there's

865
00:46:28,240 --> 00:46:31,800
been a real bifurcation in terms
of the the share prices versus

866
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,680
the fundamentals on on those
fronts.

867
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,480
So really, really excited for
gold.

868
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,680
We think there's been probably a
bit of, you know, non

869
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,640
fundamental issues with that
trade such as greener pastures

870
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,200
and tech and biotech and crypto
and the like.

871
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,840
And so we do think that we can
get the trade coming back

872
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,600
through there and could be a
really good 2025 for the genius.

873
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,880
Awesome mate, what about non
consensus view?

874
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,400
So hopefully we'll place a few
people here by saying

875
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,760
electrification minerals, I
think they get back in vogue by

876
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,360
the end of next year and we can
talk about lithium in

877
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:12,000
particular.
Clearly it's been on the noise

878
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,920
and for and for very good
reasons probably just supply

879
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,880
just starting to just outstrip
that that ability for demand to

880
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:21,000
keep up with it.
But we think China is stimulus

881
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,760
and particularly it's not.
They're focusing on that tech

882
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,680
side of things, on the AB side
of things.

883
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,600
And so we think, you know, that
will lead to a bit of, you know,

884
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,560
that demand try going back as
well as we're well into cost

885
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,720
curves now.
So something does have to give.

886
00:47:35,720 --> 00:47:39,640
And as we all know, lithium
moves quite gently and and can

887
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,280
move up as as quickly as it's
moved down.

888
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,680
So yeah, we think by the back
end of next year we'll see some

889
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:46,760
green treats.
So great.

890
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:50,360
And maybe if we take a little
pause on on lithium, have you

891
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,440
got another one that might be
the best performing commodity

892
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:58,040
for next year?
Yeah, for us it's tin so.

893
00:47:58,720 --> 00:48:01,040
We.
We've locked in for a while and

894
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,520
it's been a pretty healthy
pricing environment for that

895
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,640
commodity.
But it's a really small kind of

896
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:10,880
volume market as as, as you
know, and it's dominated by, you

897
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,200
know, some unreliable
jurisdictions, China, Indonesia,

898
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:21,120
Myanmar, about 70% of supply 10.
50% uses solder.

899
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:25,000
We expect a huge increase in
legislation, data centres,

900
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:29,480
computing etcetera, all going to
need tin and that supply is just

901
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:31,920
not coming online.
So an absolute burst in the

902
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:36,920
price 2020-2021 above 50,000
bucks per tonne and we think

903
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,240
that can happen again and you
know hopefully in the near term.

904
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,240
Beautiful mate.
And on the on the other side,

905
00:48:43,240 --> 00:48:47,480
the worst performing commodity.
Yeah, a bit boring here because,

906
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:49,200
you know, I'm a glass half full
kind of guy.

907
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:52,200
So, you know, hoping for a good
year across the board.

908
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,560
So I'm probably going to go for
a commodity, which I expect is

909
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,360
probably going to attract more
sideways.

910
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:00,480
That's that's nickel.
Just looking at the demand

911
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:04,120
supply dynamics there and just
the issues we've got with

912
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:07,160
Indonesia just absolutely, you
know, coming out of nowhere on

913
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:10,840
on the ability to do the H
valve, the electrification well,

914
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:12,560
the bachelor grade nickel side
of things.

915
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,520
I just think we, we, we have a
couple of years of that just

916
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:19,120
working through before we're
really getting back into the

917
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:22,160
territory where we need to turn
on some of the other nickel

918
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,160
production facilities.
So yeah, just maybe just a

919
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,560
boring year rather than a a
seismically bad year for nickel.

920
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:30,680
Fantastic.
I think you will make a few

921
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,640
friends with your tin and
lithium picks.

922
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,440
Thanks for coming on.
Money of mine again, Will.

923
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:36,240
No worries.
Thanks a lot guys.

924
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,000
Romano Salatano, thank you so
much for for joining us for the

925
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:44,200
predictions for for 2025.
Yeah, your episode was it was,

926
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:46,440
was super popular with the the
listeners of the show.

927
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:48,680
So we're you know, you're going
to bring your one to bring out

928
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,400
the crystal bowl, kick it off.
What's your your highest

929
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:55,680
conviction prediction for 2025?
Yeah, I think that's probably

930
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,040
the easiest question you're
going to ask me.

931
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,400
For us, it's clearly mental
resources.

932
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,520
You know, me and Rez had the
year from hell in 2024.

933
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:08,360
You had, you know, the perfect
storm of the convergence of

934
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:12,880
governance issues with weak
commodity prices with, you know,

935
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:16,760
a record debt stack.
But I think investors have to

936
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:20,160
remember the reason that they
did get so high or is so high is

937
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,200
because they've also had the
highest growth in the history of

938
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,680
the company.
And you know the Onslow Arnold

939
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:30,280
project which is in on track to.
The. 35,000,000 tonne annualised

940
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,440
June 2025.
That's a game changer for

941
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,000
Minriz.
And unlike a lot of mining

942
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,680
companies, they tip the ticket
every every single point along

943
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,160
the the the chain, including the
port.

944
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:43,080
And there's no other mining
company in Australia that does

945
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:44,840
that.
So I think Min raises our

946
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,880
highest conviction for 2025.
Beautiful.

947
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:52,440
How about your most non
consensus pick for 2025?

948
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:57,280
Romano.
Yeah, I think that's that banks

949
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:01,880
and tech roll over at some point
and that that money's used to

950
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,600
fund the resources back.
Sorry, the trade back into

951
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,520
resources.
You know, we're probably higher

952
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,280
conviction of the view that
banks will almost certainly roll

953
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,160
over at some point.
Tech's an interesting one

954
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,440
because it has got genuine
earnings growth and it's got

955
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,760
growth plus defensive qualities.
But nonetheless, I think both

956
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:21,200
those sectors we saw, we've seen
a couple of tremors over the

957
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,160
last sort of month or so where
people have been a little bit

958
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,320
nervous as China's come out and
said they're going to stimulate

959
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:28,960
the economy.
And we've seen how quickly banks

960
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:32,000
and tech can roll over to fund
that trade into resources.

961
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,280
So I think at some point, and
it's probably going to happen,

962
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,800
you know, latest January around
the the period of inauguration

963
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,960
as Trump comes into office, the
Chinese have have signalled what

964
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:43,360
they're going to do.
They just want to see the

965
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,280
specifics before they actually
pull the trigger.

966
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,600
Interesting mate.
I yeah, like it Banks, yeah,

967
00:51:49,720 --> 00:51:52,480
just CBA is just doesn't make
any sense, does it?

968
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:57,360
But what about your your best
performing commodity for for for

969
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,480
the year?
There's a few that could put put

970
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,640
their hand up for it.
Gold, I think you can certainly

971
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:05,560
still make a case that gold is
going to be strong.

972
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:08,360
Despite what everyone saying.
It's the technical price action

973
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:11,120
still very good.
It's respecting the trend and

974
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,600
you know, you can make a case
fundamentally, you know, China

975
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,360
back in the market now the first
month and six buying gold.

976
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,400
People don't want to get stuck
holding U.S. dollar when it does

977
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,480
finally crack, you know, in
fact, any Fiat currency.

978
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,240
So gold's really the only
alternative.

979
00:52:24,240 --> 00:52:27,040
Bitcoin sort of staking a claim
a little bit to being an

980
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,720
alternative to gold, but it's a
long, long way from, you know,

981
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,840
being at the same level.
So I think, you know, gold is is

982
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,600
a possible, but I think one that
really stands out for us is met

983
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,040
coal.
I think people have lost

984
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:42,640
perspective on just how much MEC
coal India is going to need over

985
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:46,120
the next, you know, 123 decades.
And they've also lost

986
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:49,520
perspective that, you know, in
terms of terms of exporters into

987
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,560
the seaborne market.
There's Australia and there's

988
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:56,880
daylight, you know, so we are,
we are the, the, the go to for

989
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,480
MEC coal production.
At the same time, what are you

990
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,280
seeing in Australia seeing
higher cost?

991
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,320
You're seeing unilateral
royalties being imposed.

992
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:09,600
You're seeing, you know, the
environmental groups work very

993
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,080
aggressively to stop all new
mines, especially coal.

994
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:16,240
So at the same time as you've
got this pronounced demand

995
00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:20,760
increase, which we've got a fair
bit of visibility on, at that

996
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:26,040
same time, the largest exporter
is undergoing a whole, a whole

997
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:30,840
raft of issues, which will not
only slow an increase in supply,

998
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:33,480
but will actually threaten
supply at these current levels.

999
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:35,320
So I think Metcalls are standing
out.

1000
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:38,360
And within that space,
Whitehaven is the stand out

1001
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:40,600
stock.
You know that transaction they

1002
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:44,960
did when they bought Dornier and
Blackwater from BHP to double

1003
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:48,400
air production at 150% of
revenues plus and to do without

1004
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:50,280
issuing any shares, I mean,
that's a game changer.

1005
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:54,160
So once we get through the the
digestive Phase, I think you'll

1006
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:55,840
see a strong RE rating in
Whitehaven.

1007
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,080
I like it Romano, and not the
first METCO pick we've had

1008
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:01,520
today.
Last question, what will be the

1009
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,920
worst performing commodity next
year?

1010
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,240
I think that's the hardest
question.

1011
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:09,760
I think 2024 was pretty much
horrible for every commodity

1012
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:11,760
with the exception of gold and
silver.

1013
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,320
I mean even platinum and
Palladium and, and normally you

1014
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,320
know, when gold and silver and
the other precious metals do

1015
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,240
too, but even platinum,
Palladium have just had a

1016
00:54:18,240 --> 00:54:22,120
horrible year.
So I do think that the risk at

1017
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:24,720
the moment is the upside for
most commodities, not the

1018
00:54:24,720 --> 00:54:26,680
downside.
And I would find it, we would

1019
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:31,200
find it very hard to pick a
stand out commodity or stand out

1020
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:36,280
underperformer in 2025.
No pick.

1021
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,160
No Pick bold.
All commodities go up.

1022
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:40,320
I like it.
I I.

1023
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,320
I I love the contrary nature.
Of it Chris gets to the upside.

1024
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,880
I mean, not obviously all
commodities won't go up, yeah,

1025
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:47,880
but you know in terms of as
you're sitting and you're trying

1026
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,640
to watch your highest conviction
downside, there's nothing that's

1027
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:51,880
to stand out in terms of
downside.

1028
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:55,000
You can maybe argue your range
still got further to go because

1029
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,920
the the the demand you know is
still a little way of cutting

1030
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:00,800
in.
You possibly make a case for

1031
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:04,000
iron ore, but I still think
that's probably 12 to 24 months

1032
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,280
premature.
And again, you know, calling the

1033
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:09,400
calling the death of iron ore
has been the the widow trade.

1034
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,040
We don't make the trade for last
decade.

1035
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,960
So, you know, I think at the
moment there's nothing that we

1036
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:15,720
follow.
It's a stand out to sort of have

1037
00:55:15,720 --> 00:55:18,960
a big decline in 25.
Yeah, sure.

1038
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,560
Appreciate the calls Romano.
And yeah, look forward to having

1039
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,880
you back on the the potty early
next year.

1040
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:26,200
Yeah.
Thanks for having us and good

1041
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:29,600
luck over the coming 12 months.
Cheers, Romano.

1042
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:30,400
How?
Good.

1043
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:33,280
Was that?
That was like, I'll bring it,

1044
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:37,800
I'll bring it up on I'll screen
record this off YouTube like the

1045
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:41,440
Riddler when he was taking in
all the information in Batman

1046
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,160
Forever.
I think it was like just the the

1047
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:46,920
knowledge of the whole of
gossiping just coming in.

1048
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:49,120
That is what you just got, money
minus.

1049
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:51,320
Amazing.
Massive thank you to all the

1050
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:55,080
fundies for again letting us
borrow a bit of their day and

1051
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:56,760
sharing the wisdom with.
US can't wait for Part 2.

1052
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:58,480
Tomorrow it's about to say, you
know the best thing.

1053
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,640
You get to do it all again
tomorrow, money minus 'cause

1054
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:04,480
you're gonna get Part 2 straight
into your melon.

1055
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,800
Lucky you.
Lucky you and what a world with

1056
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:11,000
lucky us for getting to partner
with these.

1057
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:13,600
Fantastic.
Companies just I can't believe I

1058
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,200
don't get to talk about them for
four weeks while we're off.

1059
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:18,640
This is upsetting me so I'm
going to say it.

1060
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:20,840
Go for it.
Special attention to mineral

1061
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:24,960
mining services, grounded Zambic
ground sports, CRE insurance,

1062
00:56:25,240 --> 00:56:30,480
Kay drill, Dysat, saltbush
contracting and don't forget to.

1063
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:35,600
Get wet.
Information contained in this

1064
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:38,320
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1065
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,960
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1066
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:43,040
or needs of any particular
person.

1067
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,360
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1068
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,440
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1069
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:53,120
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.