10 Strategic Metals: Overrated or Underrated? (Jack Bedder)

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What's your most non consensus
view on any commodity?

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One of the things that project
be that we've been looking at is

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copper.
I think an interesting thing for

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copper, the extent to which
scrap is going to play a part of

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that.
I think maybe an understanding

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of the scrap market is is
lacking in certain segments.

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So I think that's one to one.
Daddy, we are we, we normally

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just, I don't know, we really
talk about a lot of niche metals

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and when we do, we don't really
know what we're talking about.

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So thankfully we've got someone
with us today who's going to

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help us understand ten of the
most niche, but we call them

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critical metals that are in the
headlines everywhere.

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Why?
Because they're geopolitically

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relevant.
Some of them have just

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absolutely like soared in price
in a very short period of time.

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We're seeing like announcements
come from the White House that

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is backstop in production of a
lot of these things.

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They couldn't be as any more
relevant than they are right

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now.
And Jack better for a for a

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living runs Project Blue.
These guys model supply and

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demand.
They do an excellent job at that

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of of all of these various
commodities.

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Jack better.
Thank you so much for joining us

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on Money of Mine.
Thanks for having me.

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Thanks especially for for coming
today after I ruined your event

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last night.
You made for an engaging and

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spicy panel, so I think everyone
was grateful for your presence.

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Trav, I think the mistake is on
you for like allowing me to have

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a microphone.
You should know that the damage

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I can do with one of them.
It's dangerous to give you a

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platform, I've heard.
I found that out the hard way in

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front of a live studio audience
rights.

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I don't know why I'm
reciprocating the favour now.

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We're going to talk about 10 of,
as you said, Trav, the most

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niche but hottest metals in the
world.

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So why don't we kick things off
with antimony?

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I think it's an interesting one,
right?

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So, I mean, we go back to before
the the export restrictions.

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It was already a tight market
dominated by China, as you say.

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And on the supply side, I guess
Chinese raids have been

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dwindling, Production has been
ticking down.

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So other countries like Myanmar,
yeah, they've been filling the

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gap.
So already a tight market in

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China, demand for antimony
spread across a few things.

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You mentioned solar PV, that's
that's the new growth market,

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but it's mainly flame retardants
and and lead acid batteries.

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So a tight market growing
steadily, prices ticking up

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because of that tightness.
And then yeah, it gets

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interesting and sort of
embroiled in this, this chip was

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narrative and you get export
restrictions and then finally an

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export ban to the UK, to the UK,
to the USA.

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And yeah, prices get pretty
spicy.

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And in the West right sitting
above 60,000 dollars, I think

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they might be about there now
and.

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That's like AA6X on on what it
was a couple years ago or

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something.
I think yeah, compared to

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compared to long term norms,
absolutely.

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And I I think that's because,
you know, some of these things

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that have been banned or
restricted doesn't really matter

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much of that material doesn't
make its way to the US, but the

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US is a big consumer of Chinese
antimony trioxide in particular.

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So it all became about where is
where's the US going to get this

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material from?
And you get, there's really

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interesting play in sort of
Southeast Asia where everyone's

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scrambling to take the
opportunity to sell into this

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this Western market, right?
So you've already got China

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desperate for material.
Myanmar ramps up to to sort of

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target this, this Western
market.

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That material doesn't go to
China.

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So it compounds the tightness
that material makes its way to

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sort of Thailand back to Myanmar
again.

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And you get a few places, La
Cambodia, Myanmar producing

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ingot looking to to target an
eventual U.S. market.

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Thailand sets up some Ato
smelters looking to to send that

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to to the West, which works a
little bit in Q1, but eventually

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the Chinese owners of those
refinery shut it down.

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So, so that's that.
And now what you've really got

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is sort of new feedstock from
those places.

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I just spoke about getting
converted into ingot in

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Southeast Asia, making its way
to Europe, France and Belgium,

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then transferred into trioxide
and then makes its way to the

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US.
So the supply chain sort of

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scrambled to to make things work
and now looks like export

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restrictions are going to be
repealed, right?

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So next year might look
completely different.

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So I think in answer to your
question, like, you know, how

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frothy is it that there was a
structural tightness before?

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So I think things will come off,
but the underlying fundamentals

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still mean that, you know,
China's desperate for the

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material could support
reasonably elevated prices for a

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little while.
Yeah.

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I mean, how long have you been
working in commodity markets

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jackets like?
2012 probably still.

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Yeah.
So like the the, the queue for

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high prices, always high prices
because new supply comes online.

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And I think we've been reluctant
to actually really embrace

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antimity because it just always
felt frothy.

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It always felt like very, very
hype heavy.

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And whenever something kind of
like O6X, you're just struggling

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to like make an assessment, is
this a structural like change in

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the market or is this this new
supply just going to flood the

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market?
Yeah.

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Oh, I mean, and on the other
side of that is some destruction

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of demand, right?
And yeah, for flame retardants,

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which let's say 60% of demand, I
don't have the exact yeah, if

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you get to a certain point,
which is somewhere between let's

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say 15,000 and $20,000, yeah,
you'll, you'll start to see

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substitution in flame
retardants.

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So, so that'll help soften
prices as well as you say new

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supply coming on, but it it
might be a little while before

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that new supply can enter the
market.

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And then in today's world, it's
always is it the right supply

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for for the consumer, right.
So yeah, new projects may be

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here the USA, but we'll see when
they enter production.

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And and to be clear on those
export controls for the three

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commodities we mentioned, these
all fall under that dual use

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ruling because they're used in
munitions and and various other

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military applications, right?
Yeah, I think someone did a

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study like 300 different
military applications for

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antimony.
So it's it's in munitions as

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well as yeah, flame retardants,
lead acid and.

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Yeah, it's really interesting,
right, Because that component of

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the market is such a small
portion of what's already a

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pretty small market in antimony.
But it's just that slither

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that's used for those things.
And then the Chinese group it

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under under that basket because
they don't want any of it going

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that direction, right?
I think, yeah, that's one way to

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contextualize it.
And yeah, on the flip side,

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people get very animated about
things because they're in

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military applications for
obvious reasons.

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But yeah, tiny slithers of the
market in a in a tonnage term.

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I did hear that, that
historically, if you measure

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which commodity price prices
move the most, like, like go up

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by the most during periods of
war and too many is number 1.

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And it's like night and day
between #1 and #2 OK.

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Yeah, OK.
I would have thought tungsten

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might be up there as well.
It's in tungsten #2 sort of

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think of.
J dot DK with this fun fact.

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Both of them have been flying.
Yes, yeah.

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Commodity #2.
Commodity #2 cobalt oh, before

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commodity #2 is the narrative,
is it overrated or underrated

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versus reality market Market
sentiment overrated or

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underrated?
Can we have a middle section for

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this one?
Because I I think it's hyped,

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but you know, there was a
structural tightness before

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which which I think will endure.
Mutual.

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I won three categories.
OK, sorry, it's your show.

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Moderately rated Moderately
cobalt Cobalt mate.

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This was like uninvestable a
while ago.

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I saw a chart the other day that
like the 12 month yeah price

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performance of cobalt, it's like
trumped all of the other like

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mainstream enemy medals.
Remarkable.

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As the DRC has subbed themselves
out of the game.

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We're talking about export
controls again.

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Yeah, yeah.
So 70 plus percent of the market

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comes from the DRC.
Huge mines were coming online.

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Kisanfu and a few others seem
like owned operations where it's

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just a byproduct.
So just completely flooded as

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well as the the Indonesian
nickel supply that came with a

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lot of cobalt as I kind of
understand it as well.

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So you have a price that was
actually pretty elevated. 2122

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came off kind of dramatically.
You've also got that background

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narrative of, you know, BMW,
Apple, these companies talking

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about how they want to remove
the DRC supplied cobalt from

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their supply chain.
So what's the kind of state of

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play here, Jack, and how do you
kind of see it?

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I think that's a, it's a great
summary.

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So yeah, things were in the
doldrums for a while for cobalt,

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right?
And the price got very, very low

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and that's because of
oversupply.

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Indonesia's right.
But yeah, it's all about huge

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ramp UPS in the DRCA.
Few different actors, but yeah,

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mainly Kissan food, 10K,
Fungarumi and people are

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targeting the copper there, but
Cobalt's coming along for the

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rides and you get to a situation
where there's absolutely buckets

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of the stuff overhang in the
market in in mainly hydroxide

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form.
We saw this different numbers.

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Yeah, we, we visited a few
months in the day, I said and

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you just say like sheds and
sheds full of carbon hydroxide

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because, because the market
prices at that point in time are

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just not sufficient.
Yeah, they'd be there.

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Every producer I visited to,
Yeah, that they'd be in Zambia,

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they'd be ports in South Africa,
they'd be places in Asia like

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Malaysia.
So yeah, just people have

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different figures, but maybe
let's say 100,000 tons overhang

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in the market.
And this is bad news for the DRC

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government because you know,
they get a, they get a slice of

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the pie here.
So despite production absolutely

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ramping up between 2023 and
2024, their revenues more than

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half.
So they feel they need to step

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in.
I guess it's I guess it's the

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idea and there's a export
restriction which comes in I

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think was it February this year,
still loads of material

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overhanging the market.
So it's taken quite a long time

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for that to be burns away.
You still had some material

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leaving after the February ban
as well that was already allowed

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to leave.
You had a ban extension and now

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you've got a, a quota system
where they're sort of saying, I

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think it's around 95,000 tons of
material can, can leave next

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year and it, they can reevaluate
that.

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So based on our forecast for
demand and as you say, it's, you

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know, the, the, the, the growth
rate expectation for cobalt

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isn't what it was 5-6 years ago
with new cathode formulations,

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things moving towards nickel,
manganese or whatever else might

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be.
But yeah, with our view of

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demand now, which is still
pretty, pretty bullish, you

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know, Cobalt's a key part of the
battery trend.

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It's also used in magnets and
other things.

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It's going to be a pretty tight
market for for the next few

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years if you know demand
projections are anywhere near

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what we think they'll be.
Assuming DRC stuff comes back

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online.
Assuming that they export

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material at, you know, around
95,000 tons, Yeah, the quota

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level.
And yeah, it remains to be seen

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how well that will be.
Is that is that actually

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enforceable like?
I think jury's out.

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Some people say it could be, you
know, quite leaky, but others

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say, you know, that, you know,
ultimately things are trucked

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out.
There have been in a pretty

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robust Rd. checks before that
the routes are well known, so I

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think it can be.
I think it can be enforced quite

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well.
Is this, does this actually kind

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of address the the bigger
problem though, because the

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cobalt is being produced as a as
a byproduct or a Co product with

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the copper which is the main,
you know the main reason that

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these mines are in operation.
So the production of the cobalt

227
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,120
is not slowing down, the
production of the cobalt is

228
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,680
presumably still and they just
stockpiling more and more and

229
00:10:44,680 --> 00:10:45,680
more.
It'll it'll just sit in the

230
00:10:45,680 --> 00:10:46,560
DRCI.
Guess which?

231
00:10:46,560 --> 00:10:48,680
Will have to come out like
eventually right?

232
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,920
Like when do you see countries
impose these kind of export

233
00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,160
controls?
Like how does it actually play

234
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,960
out over time?
I mean, it remains to be seen

235
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,640
how it'll play out in this
setting, but you know, that's

236
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,600
the challenge for them.
They, they, it's going to build

237
00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,680
up in country unless you
actually say no production,

238
00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:04,720
please.
And they're not going to do that

239
00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,360
because you know, you want to,
you want to be producing copper.

240
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:13,760
So you've got to let it out, you
know, to the extent which prices

241
00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,880
are apparently, you know, at a
level that are supportive of

242
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:18,880
enough revenue for the AC
government without pushing the

243
00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,520
price too high so that it kills
demand or incentivizes new

244
00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,440
supply elsewhere, I suppose.
But that's less of a less of a

245
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,120
thing in cobalt because, you
know, all of the, the projects

246
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,000
and operations are very small
compared to the DRC ones.

247
00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,560
So it's going to be a balancing
act.

248
00:11:33,560 --> 00:11:38,120
And yeah, I think long term
probably not what consumers of

249
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,800
cobalt who are already spooked
by the high volatile prices,

250
00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,400
already spooked by the
association with child mining,

251
00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,720
probably not what they want to
what they want to see long term.

252
00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,640
So you wouldn't want to be
starting a a Western cobalt mine

253
00:11:49,680 --> 00:11:52,400
anytime soon.
I think there's an opportunity

254
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,160
for a, a Western cobalt
operation obviously to say, hey,

255
00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,200
we're, you know, we're, we're
supplying what we're supplying.

256
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,320
We're not beholding to
government restrictions.

257
00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,760
But the the challenge, as ever,
is going to be producing at a

258
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,440
cost that is palatable to to a
consumer.

259
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:08,560
So overrated.
Underrated.

260
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,560
I, I think underrated, I think
Cobalt's here for a little

261
00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:16,880
while, right?
I, I, I don't think that this is

262
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,760
1/2 cooked plan by the, the DRC
government.

263
00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:23,160
I think they've done their
homework on this and I think

264
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,480
cobalt is going to be
interesting for, for a while.

265
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,880
I remember being at PDAC a
couple of years ago and someone

266
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,440
stood up and say the cobalt
market killed itself.

267
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,480
And I think it's it's been
resuscitated.

268
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:40,240
Didn't expect that one JD
Gallium to to to pivot another,

269
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,200
another one of those, yeah.
Medals that we.

270
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,080
Well, this is a medal.
I don't know.

271
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,040
It is a medal.
It is a medal.

272
00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,640
Gallium's a medal, one of those,
yeah, metals that's really in

273
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,400
the geopolitical spotlight.
And you see it's thrown around

274
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,520
everywhere, notably here in, in,
in WA.

275
00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,040
There's this like recent
announcement that alcohol is

276
00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,160
going to going to build a, a, a,
a gallium kind of circuit

277
00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:03,600
ancillary to the, the aluminum
refinery, which will presumably

278
00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,240
help address some of the the
lack of supply coming from the

279
00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,960
West.
What do you what's your read on

280
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,760
the Gallium market attack?
It's an interesting one, right?

281
00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,480
So we're into some of the
smaller stuff now.

282
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:19,480
I think this is a 900 ton market
or something.

283
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,320
So not big goes. 900 tons. 100
tons.

284
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,560
What does a ton go for again?
I'd have to check.

285
00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,480
I'd have to check.
But yeah, more in the West than

286
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,800
it does in China.
I can, I can guarantee that.

287
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,680
So it's used in a few things.
Semiconductors, obviously the

288
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,120
the key thing that gets lots of
attention, it's used in LE DS,

289
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:46,480
it's used in neodymium or
magnets, used in solar PV as

290
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,640
well.
So all of those sectors

291
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,760
obviously doing quite well with
some upside.

292
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,120
But yeah, very, very small
market.

293
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,560
But a growing market as I was
looking through one of the

294
00:13:56,560 --> 00:14:00,400
reports you guys put out and 12%
per annum growth over over the

295
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,840
last 10 years.
So that's a pretty steady right

296
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,000
to take up at.
Very, very decent rate, but from

297
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,480
a very, very small base.
But yeah, yeah, it's in all of

298
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,280
those cool electronics
applications that are sort of

299
00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:15,480
driving modern technological
transformations, I guess.

300
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,440
So yeah, Gallium is well exposed
to those.

301
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,560
Yeah.
And there's no single primary

302
00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,480
gallium mine obviously that at
that sort of scale it's it's

303
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,760
it's too small to to kind of
justify.

304
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,640
But what you mentioned there
travel with alcohol that does

305
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:28,960
come with with government
grants.

306
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,880
So obviously it's a completely,
utterly and totally dominated by

307
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,320
China supply chain.
Yeah, absolutely.

308
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:39,440
So comes out of the book site
root ion exchange for the sort

309
00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:42,080
of Bayer liquor that sort of
comes as part of the process.

310
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,160
So no primary galleon plays,
just recovery circuits where

311
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:49,920
historically it's made sense.
And yeah, it's it's had the same

312
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:51,480
story as antimony in a way,
right.

313
00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,680
So export restrictions in 2023,
full on bands to the US in

314
00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,920
December 2024, pretty much trade
got back to normal.

315
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,960
It makes its way to Germany, it
makes its way to Japan.

316
00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:07,400
Not too much went to to the
Netherlands or the USA anyway

317
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,920
and it's not really making its
its way there now.

318
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,760
But yeah, it's certainly high
prices in the West and

319
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,640
everything related to people
being spooked by China has got

320
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,120
people exploring whether a
gallium recovery circuit of

321
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,800
their books that operation might
just be a good idea.

322
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,960
And yeah, you mentioned one
here, there's Rio Tinto are also

323
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,680
looking at something.
So remains to be seen whether

324
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,120
it's possible though, right?
Do you worry with this type of

325
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,000
stuff where China's dominated it
for so long that we don't even

326
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,360
know how to build the the plant
and operate the plant in the

327
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,400
West?
I think the answer to that will

328
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:40,560
be different for different
metals.

329
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,200
But yeah, I think if, you know,
you solve the capital problem,

330
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,000
which isn't necessarily easy to
to solve, and if you park to one

331
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,560
side the idea that you even need
to be cost competitive with

332
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:52,560
China, which is another big
thing to solve.

333
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:54,960
Yeah, a lot of the expertise
sits in China.

334
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,720
The IP sits in China, The
machineries probably got a

335
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,600
Chinese instruction manual.
So I'm not saying that's the

336
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,560
case for gallium.
And you know, I'm sure the

337
00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,400
people that are exploring it are
looking into this heavily.

338
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:08,440
But yeah, I think a lot of that
expertise sits in China and then

339
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:09,960
you've got to solve some of the
other things.

340
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:14,320
So whether it's acid for this
supply chain or for gallium,

341
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,120
it's chelating resins, you know,
can you get that here as cheaply

342
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,480
as you can get in China?
You're going to have to pay

343
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,480
more.
I think you've got a factor, all

344
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,600
of these things in.
And even if you solve the money,

345
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,400
and even if you solve the
potential market, which are of

346
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,280
course pretty big stumbling
blocks too.

347
00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,000
Yeah, well, it's, it's funded by
government grants.

348
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,480
And if there was like a, an
economic incentive to add this

349
00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,960
like Circuit previously, why has
Alcoa not done it before?

350
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,280
I think they've done a lot more
work in this area than than S 32

351
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,400
has.
But, but, but I've, I've read

352
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,320
commentary from out of Alcoa,
like I reckon it's less than two

353
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,360
years ago talking about they're,
that they've looked into this

354
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,120
and they can't do it.
And now, now the narrative is

355
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,200
like flipped and you have to do
it.

356
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:54,880
Well, I'll believe it when I say
it and everything like that.

357
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,040
Now I do, I do hope that it kind
of comes to fruition.

358
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:02,800
The one observation with the,
the kind of the gallium froth is

359
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,720
they're, they're juniors, mining
juniors out there kind of

360
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,040
reporting to have primary
gallium intercepts to, to have a

361
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,599
primary gallium operation.
Is this is that like maybe a

362
00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:14,359
pipe dream given where this
metal actually comes from?

363
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:18,040
I mean, it's going to be
challenging right to to do a

364
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,000
Greenfield's primary Galleon
project versus maybe just

365
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:25,040
putting in an established
technology with with one of the

366
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,880
majors.
So I would say if new supply is

367
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:28,920
going to come on, it's it's
going to be one of the big boys

368
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,120
and it's going to probably be
using established technology.

369
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,400
Very diplomatic answer.
Never say never, right?

370
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,320
You know.
But overrated or underrated on

371
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:38,560
yeah, market, market sentiment
versus reality?

372
00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,080
I think probably overrated and
you know different from my last

373
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:42,320
answer.
This is a small market.

374
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,080
So yeah, it won't take much for
a little bit of new supply to

375
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,960
really soften things even if the
the US China schism endures.

376
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,000
But but that could all reset and
it could be OK.

377
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,960
Germanium even even more niche
perhaps than than gallium.

378
00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,320
So this is again a tiny, tiny
market, heavily concentrated.

379
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:04,960
I read somewhere that it's a bit
over a $300 million market or

380
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,760
like I'm not sure of the exact
tonnage of that market, but.

381
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:12,520
We put it at 330 tons, 330. 330
tons, yeah.

382
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:17,600
So a tiny, tiny market.
Again by product, 20% comes from

383
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,520
from lead sync operations.
And like many of the metals we

384
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:24,360
speak about today, there's a not
insignificant amount that comes

385
00:18:24,360 --> 00:18:28,080
from recycling as well.
But again, this was grouped with

386
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:32,880
gallium and antimony in in that
two use kind of group of metals

387
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,800
where the majority of the use
isn't actually in military

388
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,440
applications, but a small kind
of slither of it is.

389
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,360
I want to start with the
question, is that the fuss over

390
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:43,240
Germanium underrated or
overrated?

391
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,600
I think it's certainly more
rated than more significant to

392
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,320
Western markets than the gallium
situation.

393
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,720
I've been in DC a few times this
year and yeah, germanium is the

394
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,440
one people are worrying about
most.

395
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,400
Very small market.
And yeah, I think in in certain

396
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,360
places in the US, people are
really wondering where the stuff

397
00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:03,920
is going to come from.
Not too many options outside

398
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:08,000
China, as you said, there's some
some in Belgium, some in Canada,

399
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,520
but this one could be a bit more
real.

400
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,960
Short term, longer term, yeah,
it's solvable.

401
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,720
But.
Does DT think think it is

402
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,560
solvable in the in the short
term just needs the money?

403
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,480
I think it's like right now,
yeah, where where could the the

404
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,240
materials come from for, for
defense applications.

405
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,520
So yeah, it's a very near term
priority.

406
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,440
Money won't solve right.
You just need access to units.

407
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,800
Money will solve things
eventually, but in the short

408
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,920
term, if there's not a stockpile
to draw on, if there's not

409
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,200
Western producer that'll sell it
to you, then yeah, where's it

410
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,840
going to come from?
We could see a handout coming to

411
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,960
a small germanium company
sometime soon.

412
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,280
It's a possibility or you know,
maybe there's some traders

413
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:48,320
sitting on material, not sure,
but you know, it's important for

414
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,760
lots of it's important for lots
of military application.

415
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:56,600
You know, it's, it's optics,
electronics, and then various

416
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,440
other things, solar polymer
catalysts.

417
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,160
Yeah, yeah.
Fascinating.

418
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,880
That's yeah, that's a a market I
don't think we've ever spoken

419
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,040
about on on the show.
It's just so, so small.

420
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,880
Well, like you say, where are
the options to get it from?

421
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,960
We don't talk about it because
where are the equities to talk

422
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,600
about like it's it's.
It's not going to be a big one

423
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,000
for your, your subscriber base,
I imagine.

424
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:17,880
But you know, it's, it's front
page news at the moment.

425
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,640
So yeah, there.
We go there are some traders

426
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,880
sitting on some.
They wouldn't tell me.

427
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:25,760
If they did, would I tell you I
didn't?

428
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,560
But they're reading a germanium
research intently.

429
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,240
Oh, you know the.
World's biggest periodical in

430
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:31,200
germanium.
So absolutely.

431
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:32,640
But I think this is a real
thing.

432
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,680
You know, you've got traders
sitting on material, you know,

433
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,840
as they do, right, looking to
sell into markets and they're

434
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,080
getting a little bit spooked by
the idea that the government

435
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:47,200
might come and do something to
manipulate these markets and get

436
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,840
in the way of their trading, I
guess.

437
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,040
Yeah, well, if they're hoarding
the metal and that's like the

438
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,960
only supplier that they'll make
a, they'll make a mozza.

439
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:58,800
I'm not suggesting any hoarding
anyway, so we'll see.

440
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:04,720
Manganese, this is a much, much,
much bigger market than the rest

441
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,360
of the metals we've spoken about
today. 90 plus percent goes

442
00:21:08,360 --> 00:21:12,800
toward steel in the production
of steel as a as an alloy there.

443
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,240
So yeah, we've spoken that
manganese plenty of times on the

444
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,000
show.
There's that smaller component

445
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,760
where people talk about the the
dream of the, the battery demand

446
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,040
component of manganese growing
and growing and growing.

447
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:28,280
But as it sort of stands, it's a
small kind of slither of the

448
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,360
market.
Curious to hear how you think

449
00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:34,280
about that battery demand to
start with and how that's kind

450
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,120
of changed over the last five
years or so.

451
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,480
I think the battery story is
increasingly good news for

452
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,600
manganese because it's hedged
between the the various cathode

453
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,520
formulations that will they'll
compete.

454
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:49,320
So it, it's in NCM, obviously
the NCM, it's in some of the

455
00:21:50,120 --> 00:21:53,760
future technologies too like
Yuma Core's HLM and increasingly

456
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,800
LFP is going to have a manganese
component.

457
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,000
We expect we're, we're pretty
bullish on LMFP.

458
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,600
So throw in LMO as well, which
is used and I think some power

459
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,680
and multiple applications then
it's in a lot of the

460
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,440
chemistries.
So and it doesn't matter for

461
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,680
manganese which way the sort of
cathode split goes.

462
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,640
It's, it's going to be there.
And then yeah, outlooks ebb and

463
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,240
flow with energy storage
forecasts and EV forecasts, of

464
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,360
course.
But the, the, the picture for

465
00:22:20,360 --> 00:22:23,280
manganese sulfate or manganese
tetroxide is, is a +1.

466
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:28,440
Maybe it's 9000 thousand tons
today, but that's going to you

467
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,800
know fivefold in 10 years based
on our our latest forecast and

468
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:33,800
some are a lot more bullish than
that.

469
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,040
And, and that steel component
like steel maxed out in China a

470
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,400
few years back and it's been
inching down as they sort of

471
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,600
flood the world with their
excess capacity of steel.

472
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,800
How do you think about the, you
know, the large portion of the

473
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,000
market there?
Well, yeah, it's certainly the

474
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,200
biggest portion.
I mean manganese is used in all

475
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,560
all steel, right?
It's a 17,000,000 ton market, I

476
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,000
think.
And, and yeah, whether steel's

477
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,080
peaked or it's just plateauing,
certainly the trend is flat, if

478
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,440
not, if not slightly downwards.
So for for things like

479
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,120
manganese, but also other, other
alloys, whether it's vanadium,

480
00:23:05,120 --> 00:23:08,360
niobium, it's all about whether
there are new applications that

481
00:23:08,360 --> 00:23:11,640
will increase the sort of
intensity of use of the element

482
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,480
in question within the steel so
that there can be a little bit

483
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,400
of upside even in plateauing and
and sort of downwards markets if

484
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:19,840
that intensity of use can tick
up.

485
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,000
Yeah.
And that that could be a driver.

486
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,040
And, and on the supply side,
we've got things like Groot

487
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,240
Island here in, in Australia
that's going to shut up shop in

488
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:33,080
three or so years I, I believe.
So how do you, how do you think

489
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,960
about the supply with a lot of
the, the better projects around

490
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,800
the world being mined out
similar to like iron ore and

491
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,720
these sorts of things?
Do you think they just keep

492
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:45,720
going in the grades get get ever
so slowly smaller or do we find

493
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,360
new production spots?
I think ultimately there are

494
00:23:48,360 --> 00:23:49,520
some things reaching end of
life.

495
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,320
I think, yeah, those guys are
sort of, what is it, five years,

496
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:53,600
seven years?
I'm not exactly sure of the

497
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,480
number, but you know, that's
well stated.

498
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,560
Maybe there's more exploration.
I'm, I'm not sure.

499
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,600
I think big picture, you know,
abundant reserves in, in South

500
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,440
Africa or other parts of Africa.
So the stuff's around.

501
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,560
But whether it's existing
operations, whether you need to

502
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,680
see more exploration, time will
tell.

503
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,720
But you're going to, you're
going to see some declines in in

504
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,600
certain jurisdictions and that's
going to create some

505
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,120
opportunities for others.
A lot of chatter about steel.

506
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:16,720
We're talking a lot about steel,
aren't we, Trav?

507
00:24:17,120 --> 00:24:18,880
It's a man for steel, kind of,
yeah.

508
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,560
Is it very important when we're
talking about manganese

509
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,360
dynamics?
And I don't know, I disagree a

510
00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:27,680
bit with Jack that maybe steel
plateaued because all I see is

511
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,640
increasing orders for Sandvik
ground support galvanized steel

512
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,440
bolts, just like this one I've
got right here mate.

513
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,440
It's true.
Now that could be people just

514
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,080
wanting to get in touch with
Derek Hurd and the awesome team

515
00:24:38,120 --> 00:24:40,440
at Sandvik Ground Support
because they're legends and

516
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,800
they're so friendly and easy to
work with.

517
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,320
Or it could be the fact that
mines are going underground.

518
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,880
They're lasting longer.
Getting deeper, getting deeper,

519
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,480
they need to be safer.
The world needs the medals, and

520
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:52,960
why not use Sandvik ground
support?

521
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,080
Because they're the best in the
business.

522
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:55,040
They're.
Not just the best in the

523
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,040
business, mate, they're these
are galvanized bogs.

524
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,240
You know what they galvanized
them with?

525
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,520
Zinc.
Because they want them to last

526
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,560
forever.
Forever in fact.

527
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,080
In fact, they just, they just
keep lasting.

528
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,520
Just like the name Sandvik.
It's going to be around forever.

529
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,760
Just like Derek heard.
He doesn't age.

530
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,560
I think he'll be here in 4050
years time.

531
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,440
Aging like a fine wine, isn't he
I?

532
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,720
Think he's galvanized?
Fantastic, thanks a bunch to

533
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,840
Derek Herd and the team.
Check him out in the show notes

534
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,800
today to get your order in.
On good Island like I remember I

535
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,440
remember when good island went
offline like overnight, right

536
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,760
15% of global supply offline
overnight and JD and I just high

537
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,960
5 and like yeah man like this is
this is the moment like

538
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,680
manganese going to pop Let's
let's let's celebrate and it was

539
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,880
like the world's shortest supply
like supply shock and manganese

540
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,720
prices did pop but they they
they just like compressed very,

541
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,800
very quickly.
It didn't last very long and

542
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,560
like an observation or
reflection from there is is it

543
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,000
appeared like there was a lot of
lighten supply that could very

544
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,600
like quickly kind of come online
to fill that that void.

545
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,400
So do you get, do you kind of
like moderate your expectations

546
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,880
of, of, of elevated manganese
prices just because of that

547
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,560
dynamic where there's, there's,
there's tons that can kind of

548
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,680
come on very quickly at low cost
to, to to feel the demand that

549
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,800
can can arise our supply shock?
I think that's it.

550
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,400
Yeah.
It definitely fell back and

551
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,280
ultimately demand wasn't there.
So you know, that's one reason

552
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,760
the price didn't pop very long.
And secondly, you have this new

553
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,080
supply and a few other areas
and, you know, material sitting

554
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,880
at stocks making its way across
the sea at any given point.

555
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,080
So it was a short lived one,
right?

556
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,680
Unfortunately.
Is the demand outlook overrated

557
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,960
or underrated?
I think underrated for

558
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,840
manganese.
I think more and more you look

559
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,720
at the future of cathode
technology.

560
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,040
Well, let's say on the battery
side, right.

561
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,800
So maybe you split that on the
steel side, it's it's pretty

562
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,880
entrenched and it's just going
to grow plateau.

563
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,680
But on the battery side, yeah,
increasingly, I think all of the

564
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,600
cathode news is good for
manganese, whether it's in Novel

565
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:54,760
technologies, NCMLMFP.
So demand growth is going to be

566
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,640
there.
All of the production is really

567
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,800
in China and there's a little
bit in South America, a little

568
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,120
bit in Belgium, a little bit in
Japan based on conversion.

569
00:27:01,120 --> 00:27:04,280
So again, opportunity for the
rest of the world projects,

570
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,360
maybe new supply chains need to
be built, but again, they're

571
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,920
going to be more expensive
compared to China.

572
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,880
So that's the challenge.
Absolutely.

573
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,160
Another one for steel niobium.
Niobium.

574
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,800
Ding, Ding, Ding.
You got Ding Ding a metal back.

575
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,440
You just own you own some soft
part.

576
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:20,800
Niobium.
I'm bullish niobium.

577
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,560
OK, gotcha.
No, Yeah, the Super metal we

578
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,200
like to call it, I think it just
makes everything better, doesn't

579
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,600
it?
Like it just completely

580
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,720
transforms how wonderful steel
is.

581
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,200
Unfortunately, you just don't
need very much to transform how

582
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,440
wonderful steel is.
So the global demand is not very

583
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,320
big.
But that intensity to your point

584
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,080
earlier has increased over the
past 10 years.

585
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,800
That intensity of use in in
alloys like with manganese and

586
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,440
others as well inches up is as
production quality as I

587
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,000
understand it needs to rise in
China as they become a richer

588
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,360
country.
Yeah.

589
00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:53,640
I mean more so with vanadium,
but yeah, the same is true of

590
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,720
niobium intensity abuse
increases over time.

591
00:27:55,800 --> 00:28:00,080
And this is a, this is a very
novel minor metals market,

592
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,560
right, Three major producers,
one of whom is obviously a super

593
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:09,200
major in CBMM and in Brazil, 80%
of the market, another operation

594
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,080
in Brazil, let's call that 10%
and another in Canada 10%.

595
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,720
And yeah, a bit of production
elsewhere, but very, very small

596
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,080
scale.
So I don't think there's a

597
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:17,880
market so dominated just by 1
actor.

598
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,800
Best mind ever.
Very easy to to operate, very

599
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,560
easy to make the the fair and
niobium.

600
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,520
As far as I understand, though
I'm not a technical guy.

601
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,920
So yeah, they're sitting on a
sweet asset and I think they've

602
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:33,480
done a great job over a very
long time of basically being APR

603
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,920
guy for niobium, right?
So it's all just about finding

604
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,360
applications, making sure the
steel community knew that, you

605
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,800
know, you can use it for certain
things sort of sold part of

606
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,160
itself to its consumer base to
Asian consortia.

607
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,960
So it kind of locked in that
that steel market.

608
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:52,160
And now CBMM is going after a
new market in niobium oxide, you

609
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:57,240
know, trying to muscle its way
into the the battery story and

610
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,440
you think sort of joint ventures
or at least R&D with entities

611
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,880
like Sojits and and Toyota
trying to trying to get niobium

612
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,320
into anodes mainly in
combination with titanium.

613
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,440
So yeah, there's that's where
the potential growth is going to

614
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,400
come.
CBM wants it to be I think

615
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,240
20,000 tons of oxide by 20-30.
We're a little bit more bearish

616
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,720
than that, but we think it's
it's got a place in the the

617
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,120
anode story.
So it's an interesting one.

618
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,560
Yeah, your price forecast for
this one, you just hold a

619
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,480
straight line and drag, drag,
right?

620
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,000
I think the price forecast, if
you look at historical prices

621
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,320
for niobium, it's flat went up a
bit when the big player push it

622
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,640
up a bit, flat did the same.
So it's it's that shape and

623
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,360
yeah, it's always been about
stability.

624
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,160
I think that's what that's what
it's, it's major producer wants,

625
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:45,360
right, that they want a growing
market to to serve and they're

626
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,240
not therefore about necessarily
killing off competitors a bit of

627
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,920
healthy competitions, okay.
It's it's all about growing the

628
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,880
Nairobi market and they've
they've been pretty successful

629
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,880
at that so far.
And they spent more than half a

630
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,680
billion US expanding the mine
just a few years ago as well to

631
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,560
expand their capacity partly to
your point on niobium oxide

632
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,760
there, which they want to feed
the battery market, which again

633
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,440
is just a slither of the market
today.

634
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,320
And partly just to ensure that
stability for the future, right?

635
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,560
So they will always stay, you
know, capacity utilization is

636
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:13,800
always going to be at a certain
level.

637
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,400
They're always going to stay
well ahead of demand.

638
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,200
So yeah, no need to panic,
prices are never going out

639
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:19,720
crazy.
Keep using niobium.

640
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,760
I think that's their message.
Yeah, they like never run at

641
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,560
nameplate.
They always run it and they've

642
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,080
got the capacity to to end
shoppers if they want.

643
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,240
And they've got another
expansion planned, right?

644
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,160
So when demand hits a certain
level, though, they'll kick

645
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,760
start that and they'll always
stay ahead of the curve.

646
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:33,880
Do you model?
Do you model new supply coming

647
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:39,720
online X the the incumbents?
We, you know, based on sort of

648
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,680
our read of this sort of
oligopolistic market, however

649
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,680
you'd want to term it, we think
that they are happy to entertain

650
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,960
a few new entrants, right.
So you don't need all of the

651
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,520
projects certainly.
But yeah, space for one or two,

652
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:55,960
why not?
Yeah, interesting.

653
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,080
We've clearly drunk the niobium
Kool-aid, but.

654
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:01,640
I can imagine which one it is
as.

655
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,440
Well.
Somewhere in Central Australia.

656
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:04,680
Overrated or underrated?
Yeah.

657
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,440
Well, I think middle ground,
right, it's a steady idiots and

658
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,200
there's going to be new
applications we think in this

659
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,440
oxide stuff and nano crystalline
and other bits and pieces.

660
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,400
So I think it's rated exactly as
it should be.

661
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,760
I'm making a mess of your rating
system.

662
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,240
Rated exactly as it should be,
which is the best metal of them

663
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,520
all?
Scandium.

664
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,240
This one is a head scratcher.
We've seen some stocks Sunrise

665
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,400
Energy recently just absolutely
fly.

666
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,880
They did a capital raising on
the back of their their run.

667
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,120
And yeah, a few other sort of
playing into this.

668
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,440
Rio Tinto came into the market
recently, had a pilot plan and

669
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,960
scaled that up.
They also had to deal with the

670
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,800
US government 40 like very small
stuff, like 40 million bucks

671
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,840
over 5 years.
I think it was to to provide

672
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,680
supply.
But again, it's another one of

673
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,400
those markets that just doesn't
have a dedicated primary

674
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,680
production.
It's just five products for the

675
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,640
staff.
So how do you how do you balance

676
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,160
this all together?
What do you think about the the

677
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,840
reaction in the market and that
the recent run UPS in some of

678
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,080
the equities we've kind of seen?
This is an interest.

679
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:16,560
I think this is the smallest one
we've talked about.

680
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:21,080
This is 35 tons we think
contains scandal last year.

681
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:26,440
So this is a very, very small
market and it's got a little bit

682
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,080
of a similarity with niobium,
right, where niobium you've got

683
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,760
one key produces scandium if
you've got one key consumer

684
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,520
Bloom Energy accounts for
whatever is 6070% of scandium

685
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,080
demand.
So, you know, that's, that's why

686
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,720
that doesn't happen in other,
other markets.

687
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:47,280
Yeah, production heavily
concentrated in in China and

688
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,680
apart from solid oxide fuel
cells, which account for, you

689
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,960
know, that bloom lion's share of
consumption, you've got it in in

690
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,080
military applications,
particularly in aerospace and a

691
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,720
few other things like alloys.
So yeah, it's no wonder there's

692
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:04,680
a bit of interest outside of
China, Russia to bring scan into

693
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,520
the market and obviously Rio
Tinto have done that in Canada

694
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,080
recently.
Back to the same thing.

695
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Rio have shown that you can
produce scandium at a reasonable

696
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,480
cost in a Western jurisdiction.
The question is, are people

697
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,560
prepared to pay for it?
I mean, reasonable was

698
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,400
interesting in this context
because they're far, far, far

699
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,840
higher on the cost curve than
any of the Chinese production.

700
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,200
So up until last year, a bit
over 500 bucks a kilo.

701
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:31,360
Yes.
Yes.

702
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:35,760
So an expensive product, but a
price that had been falling for

703
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,600
15 years, It had just been
coming off.

704
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,960
It's been coming off and coming
off the China price, of course.

705
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:41,600
Yeah.
And you're right.

706
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,480
You know, the new operation is
high on the cost of these cost

707
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:45,760
curves.
I mean, we've got a scandium

708
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,920
cost curve, but it's a difficult
one to read, right, because

709
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,800
these are these are all sort of
multi product operations.

710
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,720
So yeah, well, it might be high
cost scandium.

711
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,680
You know, if you if you balance
that out with your titanium

712
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,160
business or whatever else it
might be, you know, maybe that's

713
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,000
that's OK.
But yeah, it's an interesting

714
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,760
one.
Overrated.

715
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,840
I think ultimately it's a it's a
35 ton market.

716
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:11,560
New entrants that are looking to
bring any meaningful tonnages

717
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,480
onto that market need to be very
mindful of that, right?

718
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,360
The Scanium's got this whole
chicken and egg thing.

719
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,880
We just need more supply and
more demand will come.

720
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,600
I don't know why Scanium sort of
has this narrative wrapped

721
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,000
around it and it sort of, you
know, flies in the face of of

722
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,400
sort of economic logic.
So I think it's it's critical in

723
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,679
military applications, but but
currently there seem to have

724
00:34:31,679 --> 00:34:36,560
been no moves to make sure that
the material is not coming from

725
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:37,639
from China.
And we've seen that another

726
00:34:37,639 --> 00:34:38,719
supply chains like tungsten,
right?

727
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,159
Whether the US government is
mandating that that no material

728
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:46,159
comes from China, Iran, Russia
or North Korea.

729
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:48,600
You want a one word answer,
don't you?

730
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:50,280
Overrated.
Overrated.

731
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,600
Doesn't sound like you'll be
putting any money in any of

732
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,120
those stocks that are flying
tin.

733
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,200
It is closer.
Our heart again.

734
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,480
Again, we're talking about tin
again, how beautiful.

735
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,320
So this is what you know, a much
more established market compared

736
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,640
to many of the ones we've spoken
about, but completely

737
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,520
fascinating market.
The supply side is interesting

738
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:14,000
from Indonesia to Myanmar to the
DRC and other countries also

739
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,600
playing, playing a kind of role.
How do you think about Tin Jack?

740
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,920
Yeah, a real steady Eddie on the
demand side, right?

741
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,880
But it's in so many things that
are the, you know, literally the

742
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,560
binding agents of the global
economy and solder and

743
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,600
electronics and and tin plate.
So, you know, nothing too

744
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,400
exciting, maybe some exciting
future applications in lithium

745
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:38,640
ion, sodium ion, but you know,
solid big market growing at a

746
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,480
steady rate.
And yeah, as you know, on the

747
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,440
supply side, things are a little
bit interesting probably in

748
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,440
three jurisdictions.
So you've got the situation in

749
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:53,080
Myanmar with sort of Wall State
Army and shutdowns.

750
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,480
And I know you guys spoke at
this length on a recent episode,

751
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:57,520
right?
But yeah, I think I think some

752
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,320
uncertainty is an understatement
of what's going to happen there

753
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:05,800
over over the next weeks and
months.

754
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,800
So you know, China, Indonesia,
Myanmar, the big three in terms

755
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,080
of feedstock.
So Myanmar interesting.

756
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,040
Then you've got Indonesia.
That's that's interesting as

757
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,680
well that they're cutting back
on some ASM operations.

758
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,160
I think they're also going
through some approval changes.

759
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,360
So you've got that happening.
And then I think it was a

760
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,280
different time zone.
So I don't know what day it is

761
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,920
now is today or yesterday.
You've got the DRC government

762
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,360
saying for the sort of 3T
materials, tin tantum of

763
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,440
tungsten, there's going to be a
shutdown of ASM material.

764
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:40,200
So that had kind of come off, I
think a little bit with the M23

765
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,800
rebel situation and Alpha been
closed down for a little while.

766
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:47,040
So, yeah, those 3 jurisdictions
that's there's some uncertainty

767
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,040
on the feedstock side, right?
There is, there is.

768
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,600
Do you, do you buy into the the
hype around the middle that

769
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,840
perhaps, you know, Trev and I
again on this one, have drunk

770
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,520
the kool-aid?
Do you think it's as as rosy as

771
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,720
some people make it out to be?
The price is pretty good right

772
00:37:00,720 --> 00:37:04,160
now as far as I understand it.
And I think, yeah, given that

773
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,240
the steady demand, the size of
the market and the uncertainty

774
00:37:07,240 --> 00:37:09,760
and you know, not not one, but
not 2, but three jurisdictions,

775
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,400
I think prices could be
supported for a while.

776
00:37:13,240 --> 00:37:17,160
Great great great great
commodity use case just solder

777
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,480
of the world.
Like my God, everyone needs more

778
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,080
electronics over time and more
and more the world becomes more

779
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:23,600
developed to want electronics
like.

780
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,880
Do you, do you think there's a
narrative for the world being

781
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:31,880
able to make more out of it?
You know, whether it's using

782
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,480
hints of other metals or just
using less tint to get the same

783
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,080
kind of output that could damage
that soldering electronic demand

784
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:40,640
side of it?
Just trying to hear if there's a

785
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,680
bear case here.
It's not a bad case I've heard,

786
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,200
but I'm not too close to it
directly.

787
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,240
But you know that I guess it's
been around for a while, right,

788
00:37:47,240 --> 00:37:51,480
So that there would have always
been an imperative to to reduce

789
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,480
use if possible.
You know, this won't be the

790
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,640
first time in the tin market
that supplies a little bit

791
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,960
uncertain, so.
Yeah, the intensity is

792
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,400
definitely diminished over time.
However, you reach the, you

793
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:05,480
know, limits of physics at some
point and you just have to using

794
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,320
it.
Yeah, exactly, exactly.

795
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,800
Tungsten.
Rounding out another one of

796
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,040
those TS Tungsten.
All I know is I want a tungsten

797
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,160
cube on my desk.
Those things are sick.

798
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,720
The densest metal there is.
It's just you feel tough with

799
00:38:19,720 --> 00:38:21,040
tungsten.
They've all got their

800
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,320
superpowers, but yeah,
Tungsten's a good.

801
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:23,800
One Tungsten's a good one.
Yeah.

802
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,920
What do you think?
Tungsten Jack.

803
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,320
Again, a steady Eddy on the
demand side, right?

804
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:34,440
Carbides, mill products, alloys,
you know, the stuff that goes

805
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,280
into the machinery that that
fuels global production.

806
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:42,760
So, so very, very solid.
And yeah, on the supply side, I

807
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,560
guess a little bit of
uncertainty, big question mark

808
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,320
over China, right.
We've sort of had talk of

809
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,320
declining production, declining
grades.

810
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,600
There's also talk of some
exploration in China.

811
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,040
So I think that's the that's the
kicker.

812
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,560
Will China start to dwindle and
create more opportunity for US

813
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,480
to world production or will it
find new resources and continue

814
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,760
to to dominate to the extent
that it has for for so many

815
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,160
years?
Is the tungsten price

816
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,920
structurally higher now?
Can we go because it's it's like

817
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,280
tripled in short order, right?
It's at a record high.

818
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,800
It's yeah.
Is that something that like you,

819
00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:18,320
I think of the equities and I
want to spend this like super

820
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,680
performer, phenomenal low cost
mining Korea of all places, I

821
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:23,960
think.
And then you've got the likes of

822
00:39:24,720 --> 00:39:29,080
yeah, the more, the more like
novel producers that we come

823
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,840
across an ASX who are actually
kind of washing their face for

824
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,360
the first time in a very long
time because the tungsten price

825
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:38,080
is so constructive.
So can we actually expect that

826
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:41,400
they'll be profitable producers
that are that are of these high

827
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,360
cost assets for a while or, or
or do you sort of see see

828
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:45,720
downside to price around here I
think.

829
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,120
Probably longer term there's
there's likely to be some

830
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,720
downside.
It's an interesting supply

831
00:39:49,720 --> 00:39:52,040
picture right now.
You take China away and there's

832
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:56,240
quite a few actors that are
producing similar ish levels.

833
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,880
So sort of production, yeah,
here production, the Iberian

834
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,240
Peninsula, some places in
Southeast Asia.

835
00:40:02,240 --> 00:40:07,360
So all of those will have
different economics and yeah,

836
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,400
maybe we'll find things a little
bit challenging if prices recede

837
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:14,480
a bit.
A lot of these metals have like

838
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:18,120
recite like recycling is a part
of their their, their broader

839
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:22,040
kind of yes, supply picture is,
is that like, is that a big

840
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,120
component of tungsten or the
likes or?

841
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:26,760
Yeah, carbide scrap and yeah,
yeah.

842
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:32,000
Is this one you'd mentioned the
the US really trying to break

843
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,400
out from from China and separate
themselves here?

844
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,120
Are you expecting kind of more
intervention from the US in

845
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,000
tungsten?
Well, I think it's a yes or no

846
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,240
with the the separation, right.
So there were, there were some

847
00:40:41,240 --> 00:40:44,200
restrictions put on imports from
China, but it didn't include the

848
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,120
main, the main tungsten bearing
chemical that the US consumes,

849
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,040
right.
So those are exempt

850
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:51,520
nevertheless.
Yeah, some some restrictions and

851
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:53,440
material going into the US and
it seems that, yeah, this is the

852
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:58,560
one January 2027, no tungsten
from certain jurisdictions

853
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,360
allowed in U.S. military supply
chains.

854
00:41:01,720 --> 00:41:04,760
I think it's always interesting,
you know, why, why is that the

855
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,120
case for tungsten and not
scandium?

856
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,720
What?
What sort of pathways have led

857
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:13,680
to those decisions and are they
joined up decisions?

858
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,560
Yeah.
You'd have to hope it's an it's

859
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,520
an understanding by by the
government of where the deposits

860
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:24,680
lie, whether there's actual
feasibility of incentivizing

861
00:41:24,720 --> 00:41:28,320
supply chains to kick up and in
some cases realizing it's it's

862
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:29,800
just not.
But that's me.

863
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:31,440
Yeah.
Well, I think that that's what

864
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,200
you can't solve for a lot of
these things.

865
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:34,160
You can't solve for some of
them.

866
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,760
So yeah, there surely is an
expectation that de Chinering

867
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,760
themselves in terms of military
supply chains is possible.

868
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,320
And then, yeah, it'll be
interesting to see if if that

869
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,480
happens in other supply chains
too, because there are some that

870
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,960
the US could really decouple
from China on in certain small

871
00:41:51,240 --> 00:41:53,240
military segments.
Yeah, definitely.

872
00:41:53,240 --> 00:41:54,960
So you bullish the tungsten
narrative I.

873
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,760
Think for a little while, you
know, things look pretty good

874
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,880
longer term.
I think all depends on China,

875
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:02,960
right?
If China brings on new new

876
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,120
production, then there might be
a bit of a softening.

877
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:07,920
And yeah, geopolitics is the
wild card.

878
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,640
It depends how much it impacts
the market.

879
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,000
Last but not least, vanadium.
This is one that has been around

880
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,000
quite some time.
Vanadium redox flow batteries

881
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,640
are a pretty known sort of
substance around the around the

882
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:25,600
world.
Whether they have growing use in

883
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:29,600
their sort of longer form
stationary storage is unanswered

884
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,080
question at the moment.
But what do you make of the

885
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,120
state of play in the word
vanadium Market Jack?

886
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:36,760
Sure.
Well, yeah, it's it's a steel

887
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,040
market again, 90% goes into
steel.

888
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,640
There's some stuff in alloys,
but it's it's these VF PS that

889
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:47,400
are really getting people's
attention and probably been

890
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,240
quite not bearish, but I think
conservative on being a piece

891
00:42:50,240 --> 00:42:51,680
for a while.
But it's they they really are

892
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,000
taking off that.
But at the moment it's in a

893
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,680
Chinese context.
So you know, China dominates

894
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,520
production of vanadium in terms
of feedstock.

895
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,320
It dominates production of
vanadium pentoxide and per

896
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,000
vanadium, but it's also
dominating production of

897
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,200
electrolyte and the batteries
and the installation.

898
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:12,120
So a big China story.
We do expect VFPVFP demand to,

899
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:16,920
I'll say not not boom, but
certainly continue to to swell

900
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:18,680
in, in China over the coming
years.

901
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,640
There's a new announcement every
few weeks, and these are big

902
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,080
batteries and these batteries
consume a lot of vanadium.

903
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,840
So it's pretty exciting for the
market.

904
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,800
The question is whether this
this can happen outside of a

905
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:31,680
China context.
And you know, that's what people

906
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,400
are trying to prove.
Now at some point the the demand

907
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,720
for from the batteries will
usurp the use case in in steel,

908
00:43:39,720 --> 00:43:41,040
right?
At what year do you project that

909
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,280
to happen on on your numbers?
Right now, I think that would

910
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:48,480
take another 30-40 years at
least based on our numbers.

911
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,400
But yeah, you've got that
intensity of use in steel story

912
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,720
again.
So that pretty much depends

913
00:43:54,720 --> 00:43:57,840
whether other big economies sort
of mandate the use of better

914
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:59,960
steels in construction, right.
You, you could see more of that

915
00:43:59,960 --> 00:44:02,920
in, in places like India.
So you could get a bit of a stay

916
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,400
of execution for the size of the
the steel market.

917
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,440
But yeah, long term it's
batteries and it all depends on

918
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,320
those battery energy storage
system projections and you know,

919
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,920
the the slice of the pie
vanadium redox gets compared to

920
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,280
lithium on.
Unfortunately, yeah.

921
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,240
And with with vanadium
unfortunately one of those

922
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,480
commodities it's largely a by
product or a Co product of a lot

923
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,960
of other like production about
other metals.

924
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,840
So it can be the case that
there's quite a like a

925
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,600
constructive outlook on the
demand side, but price might

926
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,800
actually not be as like sexy
given that demand outlook

927
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,880
because the because of the
byproduct production.

928
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:42,920
Yeah, it's an interesting one.
Vanadium, so we call it Co

929
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,320
product or that's the industry
standard.

930
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:49,240
I don't know why, but yet 6070%
is, is based on the idea that a

931
00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:52,040
VTM vanadium for titanium
magnetite always used in the

932
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,160
production of steel Vanadium
reports that the slag you take

933
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,680
it out that happens in China and
Russia.

934
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,760
There's some primary production
in Brazil, some in South Africa,

935
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,760
but that's that's fallen back a
little and obviously lots of

936
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,080
primary projects in in Australia
and other places.

937
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,960
So that landscape could shift as
well.

938
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:12,240
But I think as you point out, a
lot of supply depends really on

939
00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:15,000
iron and steel dynamics rather
than on vanadium dynamics.

940
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,440
That said, China looks very
interested in, in this battery

941
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,360
things like we do expect the
demand to take off.

942
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:23,720
So it does create opportunity.
And yet the question is if, even

943
00:45:23,720 --> 00:45:26,280
if it takes off in China and
nowhere else, does China manage

944
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,320
to produce enough of that
vanadium itself or would it look

945
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,880
to be maybe a bit of an importer
of that material, which could

946
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:33,400
also create an opportunity for
projects?

947
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:35,720
Is the Outlook underrated or
overrated?

948
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,560
I think underrated for vanadium,
I think it's been in the

949
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:43,040
doldrums for for so long because
of the steel market.

950
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,520
There really is traction for
demand and that's not being

951
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:49,960
reflected I think in prices
right now.

952
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,320
So I think it's going to have
its day in the sun in a few

953
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,240
years.
Ultimately it's now whenever for

954
00:45:55,240 --> 00:45:57,880
vanadium redox, I think, you
know, prices have been low,

955
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,240
which should help commercialize
the, the batteries.

956
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,800
There's a lot of interest in
battery energy storage right

957
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,360
now.
So I, I think it's, it's got to

958
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,440
find a greater commercialization
over the next few years or maybe

959
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,040
another technology takes its
place or or lithium ion injuries

960
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:16,840
to an even greater extent.
Fantastic.

961
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:20,280
Brilliant, Jack.
I can't, I can't like, you know,

962
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,360
it's been great to talk about
all these like, you know, niche

963
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,880
metals that we've very
lacklustry, lacklusterly kind of

964
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,560
even talked about because a lot
of them are a bit of a too

965
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,640
exhausting to really study.
So I'm glad that I now know like

966
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,240
at least two or three dot points
about each.

967
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,280
I feel smarter for it.
Appreciate you making the time

968
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,120
and joining us, Jack.
Before you go yeah, what's your

969
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,160
most non consensus view on any
commodity?

970
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:43,080
I think what one of the things
that project believe that we've

971
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,120
been looking at is copper, which
obviously is getting a lot of

972
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,320
attention right now.
And I think an interesting thing

973
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,360
for copper because there's lots
of copper bills talking primary

974
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,160
supplies that the extent to
which scrap is going to play a

975
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,120
part of that.
I think maybe an understanding

976
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:01,560
of the scrap market is is
lacking in certain segments.

977
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,520
So I think that's one to watch.
Interesting, Interesting.

978
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,280
Do you model like technological
improvements to extract kind of

979
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,680
like, you know, copper from,
Yeah, from, from like tailings

980
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,360
or heavies or whatever format?
I mean, we try and go into the

981
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,840
weeds sort of asset by asset.
So it's a consideration where

982
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,640
possible.
Love you work, Jack.

983
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,440
Really appreciate your insights.
And yeah, hopefully, hopefully

984
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,080
our audience gets a bit out of
learning a bit more about these

985
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,000
10 niche commodities.
Thanks so much for for joining

986
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:33,040
us.
I hope Australia flogs your

987
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,960
country in the Ashes, which
start on Friday.

988
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:37,160
We'll see.
It's going to be a spicy one.

989
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,040
Thanks, Jack.
Thanks for having me.

990
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,400
Big thank you to Jack for coming
on and sharing his wisdom.

991
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,960
All made possible thanks to the
Champions at Sandvik Ground

992
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,360
Support.
Check him out in the show notes.

993
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,920
Also a massive thank you to
Introlinks.

994
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,560
And last but not least, focus
the platform by Market Tech

995
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:52,520
Hoodoo.
Hoodoo.

996
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,520
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

997
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,960
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

998
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,640
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out a

999
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:02,160
disclaimer.